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GoodVibe4Ever (< 20)

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GoodVibe Community Call - Do you want to dance?

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48

June 19, 2009 – Comments (16) | RELATED TICKERS: EL , IO

If you missed the last blog when we called (two days ahead of time) for an incoming top after first making a fresh new high, then you got another chance for another good risk/reward setup. The following is not a short call. It's a setup that can be used by both bulls and bears depend on where they think the next move is going to be.

Please, before you jump in thinking we offer you a financial advice or something to trade, read this first. We are not. We're trying to bring to your attention what is making us money in hope it adds value to your thinking. Nothing else and nothing more. If you're not familiar with our community, please don't judge us positively or negatively before taking amble amount of time and due diligence.

Let's see what we have...

Last call we pinned the top price @ 955.69 short 54 cents of the actual top @ 956.23 and on 1:29 PM short 1 minute of the actual time top of 1:30 PM (see comment #10 here). We can't guarantee the same every time though we do this with more frequency than mere chance. For this call updates, you can follow the live updates to the minute in the lounge (blue chat room in the comment section below) by clicking play. We will be more than happy to answer your questions if you have any. But first did you read this? Thank you! 

Now let's go into the details..

** From the charts below and according to Elliott Waves Principle we are currently in an expected UP correction wave from the DOWN wave that started @ 956.23 and ended @ 903.78

** We started the UP wave from 903.78 and we stand tonight @ 918.37

** We can't rule out or support the notion that the DOWN wave is nothing but a small correction for the advance from March that will lead even to more advance, which started from 903.78 or it's part of a larger decline to come that started from 956.23 but we can say with little doubt when it will be confirmed as either one before hand through a tight parameter that will lead to a great reward in exchange of an acceptable risk to either side you decide to take.

This is what this call about. A setup that once it goes your way, you will be able to put a comfortable stop at gain in case your trade reverse earlier than you termination target. The trades below are not day trades. They are setup to START a swing trade that can take few days to few weeks. The following numbers are not picked with no logic behind them but they are based on rules from EWP. They offer us mental and physical lines on the sand that once crossed we take actions.

Here are the details:

The chart below show you few hard numbers: 903.78 - 907.94 - 923.71 - 929.90 - 936.08 - 956.12 and yesterday's close was 918.37. I will discuss this trade from both sides, bears and bulls.

Let me say the bears' case first:

Scenario 1: If we head south first and break 907.94, aggressive bears can start a short position and timid bears can start their own after we break @ 903.78. Chances if we break 903.78, there will be little chance we head back up before more substantial downside but if we do, you can put your stops @ 922.

Scenario 2: If we head north first and reach 923.71 aggressive bears can start a short position and timid bears can start their own any where between 923.71 and 929.90 but nothing after. If the bulls take the upper hand and keep pushing up, then stops must be put in place between @ 940 and 956, wherever your risk tolerance can take. 

For both bearish setups to be confirmed a decisive break below 903.78 is required and from there we will keep following the developing DOWN wave to asses a new setup to cover or add to short positions. 

So how the Bulls can use this?

Scenario 1: If we head south first without breaking 907.94 but nothing below it, aggressive and timid bulls can pick that spot comfortably and put hard stops @ 903 should the bears show their vengeance.

Scenario 2: If we head north first, only aggressive bulls should take that entry point. Stops from there are 903 as well. Timid bulls should not pick that level until we top 936.08 - 942 and hold. Better even wait until 956.23 get topped.

For both bullish setups to be confirmed a decisive break above 956.23 is required and from there we will keep following the developing wave to asses a new setup to sell or add to long positions.

..........

This trade above is for educational purpose only and meant to bring your attention to EWP as a useful but not always accurate tool to add to your toolbox before pushing that buy or sell order. You can pick SSO if you are bull or SDS if you are Bear and paper trade them and see how it went. I am trading this setup from the bear side but will strongly ask you to have your independent thinking of where you decide to go.  

May mighty Mr. Market be with you! We all wish you as much as you wish for yourself and a little bit more.

GoodVibe Community

16 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On June 19, 2009 at 5:06 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

GV - SP count mini 06.19.09

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For the small wave count, please check the Lounge below.

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#2) On June 19, 2009 at 5:06 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

 

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#3) On June 19, 2009 at 8:51 AM, crystlz (59.34) wrote:

GV

Thanks for another excellent post. EWP certainly gives us guidelines that we can watch as the price action unfolds. Our TA and EWP can't with 100% accuracy tell us what direction the market will take, but it can give us a good indication of what is not happening as our various wavecounts are invalidated. May this be a profitable time for all in this community.

peace 

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#4) On June 19, 2009 at 8:55 AM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

Great Post GV

Best Regards, IIcx 

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#5) On June 19, 2009 at 9:03 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Do you remeber this chart I posted in the lounge just 2 days ago as a buy chart of the day?

GV - SWHC Daily

Enalrge 

Guess what? Better lucky than smart? :)

GoodVibe

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#6) On June 19, 2009 at 11:42 AM, TigerPack1 (97.35) wrote:

Goodvibe -

Please participate in this project.  It won't take much time on your part, and should "lead" more readers to your blog posts and picks on your CAPS homepage.

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=215551&t=01008389776301665428

Email if interested, and up to 5 picks, thumbs up or down.

 

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#7) On June 19, 2009 at 9:01 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Today, we still don't have a clear winner but definitely the bears got a card up their sleeves for the bull come Monday.

GV - SP count mini 06.20.09

Enlarge

According to the map we drew before the open today and saw it folding to a T:

The best winner was the timid (patient) bear as well as the aggressive one who picked bears' scenario 2 and shorted between 923.71 and 929.90 (927.09 was today's high and the close 921.23). They can sleep little better over the weekend than the aggressive bull who took the bulls' scenario 2 and now little under water but still not stopped yet. The timid bull is safe because he didn't step in.

We opened higher, overshot the wedge, then from there it was downhill, broke the lower side of the wedge decisively to 915.80  and by the close we retested the broken wedge (green) and closed @ 921.23 under both the wedge and the channel upper side (black) of which both are resistance to the upside.

Check the annotation. The aggressive bulls who stepped in today must pay attention to these numbers. 915.62 - 907.94 - 903.78 Each break will push steam into the bears' heart and will put your positions in far dangerous place. Put your stops at these numbers but definitely you must take 903.78 as you last hope.

Good traders know how to make money but great traders know how to take a loss.

For the bears, the same stops still in effect (check above in the main blog). No change and they can short any upside on Monday still as long as it doesn't exceed 929.90

If this community and this post added something to you, would you like to share it with someone else or keep it for yourself? Please Rec this post so others can find it in the blogs' list and pass it to others. Thanks! 

                Each one teach one! Each one help one!

I hope this find you well. Enjoy your weekend.

GoodVibe

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#8) On June 20, 2009 at 1:55 AM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

Well said GV! Blue support line is the key now for bear count. I added SDS at the bell for the possibility of a gap down Monday. I think that will be the last time I try to trade a correction wave in that short-term... Way to much stress. Final count for me 4-1 in trades thus far from Feb, not to bad from my stand point! Thanks for all your help!

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#9) On June 20, 2009 at 2:15 AM, binve (< 20) wrote:

GV: Again my man, excellent analysis in comment #7.

Like we preach in the CIL; Don't think and ask "does EWP predict the future?". "What is the next step in the pattern with 100% accuracy"

Instead think: "What is the new prevailing trend", "Where is the next junction between an impulse and a corrective wave *likely* to occur", "what is the risk/reward associated with that setup", "where is a good place to set stops (physical or mental) based on nearby support/resistance", "what are good scaling levels based on S/R".

People are so hung up on "Can TA predict the future?", and I think that is dumb. It is a meaningless debate that is a huge distraction. Because price tends to cluster in areas and in patterns. We see it all the time. I am interested in finding *probable* outcomes to those scenarios. The question of a *definitive* outcome is academic and irrelevant to me.

Thanks for your posts / comments / thoughts / encouragement / energy! It is much appreciated :)

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#10) On June 21, 2009 at 1:39 PM, crystlz (59.34) wrote:

Possible Play in Retail,

Depending upon what the broader markets give us in the near term, a possible entry into a long position with LOW might be a good risk/reward play for the trader who thinks there will be some more upside to the rally after the correction plays out. My 2 cents.

Enlarge 

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#11) On June 21, 2009 at 5:17 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

New post and new upcoming lounge 11...

You will need to get a new producer status for to the upcoming one. Your previous status for lounge 10 will expire once we close it soon.

All your previous uploaded media in lounge 10 are saved in the appropriate folder in the upcoming lounge. You don't need to upload them again. Please make sure to name new media appropriately and put your name on your charts so we can easily distinguish them and post again when someone ask for them.

Also if you like to post the lounge in your own blog, get the code from tools and post it as a comment in your upcoming blog. That way you can chat with us and respond to your own blog comments at the same time! Thanks for making us stronger every day.

           Each one teach one. Each one help one!

   Be happy, do good, and the rest will be taken care of.

GoodVibe Community

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#12) On June 21, 2009 at 7:54 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Lounge 11 was corrupted and we opened lounge 12 instead in comment #12 here. Lounge 11 is closed and 10 will follow soon. Please use lounge 12 as soon as you can. Thanks!

GoodVibe

 

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#13) On June 25, 2009 at 1:54 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Chart update:

GV - SP count mini 06.25.09

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The stops area will depend on your entry points, risk tolerance, and YOUR plan but I will say that staying short above 927 is way too risky per this count. On the other hand, adding to shorts below 888 is good risk/reward trade for a sizable decline.  

Bulls and bears - Win, lose or draw! Good traders know how to make money but great traders know how to take a loss.

I hope this find you well.

GoodVibe

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#14) On June 25, 2009 at 1:45 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Update - If you can't access the lounge for some reason, know that I am still holding my shorts @ current 920.

GoodVibe

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#15) On June 25, 2009 at 2:35 PM, DanDarby (< 20) wrote:

Russell 2000 update:


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#16) On June 25, 2009 at 7:26 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

The New post. Please comment in the lounge (12) or in the new post. Thanks!

GoodVibe

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