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GoodVibe4Ever (< 20)

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GoodVibe Community: This is who we are - Part (2)

Recs

45

March 13, 2009 – Comments (184) | RELATED TICKERS: PEO , PL , E

                    ........................          Notice          ...........................

Please don't recommend this post so we won't crowd the daily top recommended blogs and leave a room for others in the community to be highlighted for their good work. Thanks!
The next chart blog is not finished yet. It will be here soon or early tomorrow before the bell. My apology!

                                            ................................

I'll come back soon with my daily updates and charts. For now, did you remember to take the time and tell us who are you? You should! If you did, add more. All of you who posted warmed my heart and I thank you for taking the time to let me into your lives by telling me who you are. Every once in a while, I’ll highlight to all of us some of those who wanted to share with us about who they are. Here are another installement:

#58) On March 06, 2009 at 9:27 PM, Option1307 wrote:

First off and most importantly, I love life. Pure and simple. I am constantly seeking new information to better my understanding of the world we live in and the world we make. I have always had a passion to understand all that I can and seek knowledge in areas that are foreign to me.

I am a mid twenties, recent college grad (Biochemistry degree) living and working at a biotech comapny in San Diego. However, I just recently returned to San Diego after I lived in central Mexico (Guadalajara) for a year. As I mentioned I've always had a termedous fascination for experienceing new things including understanding different parts of the world and different cultures. I have previously traveled to a lot of places in the world, but chose to live in Mexico because it is part of my heritage. My father is Mexican and therefore it is a culture that I personally hold very close, unforgettable experience.

I have been blessed with many things in my young life so far; however, understanding where you come from and the struggles that were endured to get there should always be a priority. I give thanks daily for all I have, and try my best to share my gifts with others.

My current biotech job is a short term (1 year) stint. I simply wanted to gain experience in the industry before I enter medical school in the fall of 2009. This has always been my true calling and passion. (Not to mention my brother and father are physicians as well).

Yes, I am a science nerd at heart. But I love music, art, philosophy, politics, history, etc equally as much. Readin is a must for me. I rarely find time to squeeze it in, but it is one of my favorite joys in life. I believe in myself first and foremost. I take pride in my independence. I demand perfection but understand and accept mistakes. I am a firm believer in taking care of yourself and pesonal responsibility. I am a fiscal/ideological conservative, but rather libeal socially. I don't believe in failure per se, set backs yes, ultimate failure, no. "You must fail in order to succeed."

I have always been exposed to the idea of investing as my mother is actively engaged in my parents investments. My parents started a retirement account for me and my brother at a very young age and recently have encouraged me to take it ovr for myself (3 yers ago or so). Investing is something I've always been fascinated with, as I've firmly belived I could do it better than most paid professionals. After the resulting Tech crash, I really started taking notice. As I've come of age and more knowledgable, I've proven my initial assumption right. The majority of professionals are clueless, biased, or at the very least have alternate priorities.

As with many, I've become a forced swing trader. However, I am not naive to think I can win all the time. Time is on my side, so I don't push it. I only "trade" with a small portion of money. If I increase it, awesome, if I loose it all, no worries. Besides, lets be honest, trading is FUN!!!

Life is too short to be mad. Life is too short to be upset. Life is too short to not be fully, 100% engagd. I love my friends and family, I love my parents for all they've given me, and most importantly I love life...
 
#24) On March 05, 2009 at 1:57 AM, RussWild wrote:

In my career and in life I have always been the one to put the fire out of the anger, stop the negative snowball and move to a conclusion that will bring balance to the environment that defines the objective. I believe this is why I have advance as a manager.
 
My name is Russell and I’m 34 (35 next month) years old. I have a lovely wife and small but 2 cute as hell dogs in OC, CA. I’m officially an IT manager of 15 amazing people who need little management, which gives me the time to do what I want most of the time.
 
I’m a closet physiologist, theorist, entrepreneur and financial advisor (not stock trading). I’ve started more failed businesses than I care to recall, from roofing tear-off to catering. My definition of success is "moving from one failure to another without losing enthusiasm" (I got that off a fortune cookie) My wife and I have an at home business currently making aromatherapy products (candles are mainly my job). Our living room is a complete workshop for product making with a small couch/table/TV.  She works a full-time job like me and also has a private practice in marriage and family therapy.  Candles have had a major stop since GV poked his head in and diverted my attention completely. (And I have about 8 different orders to fill by this weekend…. sigh) Our goal is to get debt free (outside of student loans), save some money and open an aromatherapy retail shop in Seal Beach (for those CA peps who know location).  
 
I’ve been studying investments for years, yet nothing has really captured me. What we have been doing here has changed my life and it wouldn’t matter the outcome of the market movement, the base knowledge has been set. This all ties together the thousands of variables that define price in the market.
 
As a test subject for my wife’s PHD in physiology, I’ve taken more physiological tests then most people and I know my strengths and weaknesses. I have to wonder when I marginally pass the majority of lets say the IQ test (I mean the real one, and those have took it know what I’m talking about), but get 100% on sequencing… maybe charting/TA is natural to me and my future.
 
Oh, I’m also a lvl 80 warrior "chumbuster" in WOW if we got any craft players out there… It’ my main fun outlet!

~For the Horde~

#14) On March 05, 2009 at 12:32 AM, Ecomike wrote:

Single, male parent, 53, native Houston Texican (Texas). BS in Chemical Engineering, Environmental consultant, self employed since 1987. One of the few native survivors of the 1980s Great Depression in Texas (I know you never heard of it, only a few survivors like me left, LOL) when all Texas real estate and banks went out of business due to the oil bust in 1980-81 (oil went from $48 to about $7 or $8, IIRC. Wiped out the Texas oil industry which wiped out the manufacturing, and the jobs, and real estate, and bankrupted everyone, banks included, in Texas including the US Federal FSLIC.

I have 3 US patents, 2 international, and 2 international pending patents. I have always been fascinated by money. Still have the first 1922 silver dollar I got from Santa Clause when I was about 5 years old. I love to write, I am published (conference papers, and helped edit several technical books in my profession). I am somewhat of an expert in cleaning methods and processes as well as waste water treatment of wastes from those processes. I am the volunteer ask the waste water expert for the NMFRC.org

Very interested in biotech, biomechanical engineering, nano tech, and next generation batteries (I actually have a 4th patent pending in this area).  Love Star Trek, Star Wars, Star Gate......Big SciFi fan.
And I love that good ol rock n roll music!

My son is in college now hoping to be a third generation U of H, Houston Cougar engineer, and he is studying Chinese as a second language, daughter is an art (digital photgraphy, etc) major, senior in HS

#15) On March 05, 2009 at 12:32 AM, beyondanonda wrote:

After driving a forklift in a cannery in Oregon as a teenager, I traveled the world including living in Germany and Australia for several years, again driving a forklift for several large companies.  Drafted out of college and into the army in 1969 for 2 years I again traveled the world, under considerably different circumstances. 17 Years with ATT as a manager of new product development left me ready to become my own boss and do something I always loved, landscaping. I started my own company and currently live in the state of Washington with my wonderful wife (a very accomplished designer and director at Chateau St.. Michelle Winery) our 3 dogs 2 cats on a beautiful 6 acre property surrounded by hundreds of acres of private forest where I hike on a daily basis.  I play guitar, play poker, play video games with my son and daughter in law....what can I say, I like to play.  Grateful for all that I have been blessed with I assist my wife in mentoring young girls through the Girl Scouts and spend my days appreciating how lucky I am. My wife would tell you I have attention deficit disorder, but I would say....oh look the Dow is moving again....I am conservative by nature believing in personal responsibility.  I am totally estranged from either polictal party prefering to keep my political involvement limited to lively discussion over a glass of wine.
I am a prolific reader, eclectic beyond belief reading anything from mystery novels, poker strategy, history (Elliot Wave theory)..and my favorite website, beyond the TMF, is The Onion

#32) On March 05, 2009 at 2:38 AM, BaitBoyinOK wrote:

I'm 56, wife is 54. Cracked skull 2-12 years ago rendered me somewhat incapacitated, BUT, what they say - I'm alive, I just have a new reality that I have to adjust to, sometimes on a daily basis. Doing our bestest to live the American dream, bought a house just after the cracked skull event - actually less than 4 months after when I had to get friends to help move us because I couldn't lift over 5 pounds due to bleeding on the brain. Permanent brain death in the area just over the right eye, about 2" wide by 1" front to back, by about 1/4" thick. No sense of smell now; scary given that we live out in the boonies in central Oklahoma in a propane warmed house. Have to have VOC alarms in case of gas leaks; can't tell if there is a grass fire close unless I see the smoke. HIGHLY dependent on my wife to keep me safe from toxic food, toxic gas, toxic environemt. Such is the nature of the beast - I HAVE a new reality that I have to adjust to every day. Learning something new, like the Elliot Wave Theory is difficult, extremely difficult, as it takes me about 4 times longer to get things permanently resident in my brain. As I mentioned in my post I alluded to above, this is very difficult for me since I do know that I got a patent in artificial intelligence for the USAF - patent H1769 - and now there are times when I get scared driving home and not being sure which way to go. I'm not so bad that I can hide my own Easter eggs - yet. But, alack and alas - it could be so much worse. We are happy, still working and making a living.

                                       ..................................................

Go and read the rest for yourself. Bring one or part of one that touched you the most and put it in the comment section. And don't forget to tell us who are you (Not here but there) and follow the guidelines please. 

To be continued... I have a lot more to highlight!

                                                                    ...................

Community guidelines:

1. Believe but question. Listen but speak. Trust but verify.
2. Everyone is welcome! We must have diversity within our community.
3. We must tolerate what we can’t tolerate or understand. The level of our tolerance to those who disagree with us will prove the level of our convictions.
4. Everyone is entitled to believe and express their opinions in any form or shape including here even if they’re not justified. It’s a basic right.
5. Never respond to unfounded, irrational or unjust comment. You’re doing us no good.
6. Never ever defend me, the community we built, or the work we do. It’s futile. Add, build, make a positive difference, or keep your peace. This is a sign of strength not weakness.
7. If you can’t take these rules, please take your grievance to whom offended you directly in their blog.
8. Refrain from asking me a tailored or personalized trading or investing strategy or a specific chart. This is not my role. Start learning, make your homework; consult with your broker or with your investing advisor before making any decisions. All the work I present here is for educational reasons and should not be constituted as an advice to buy or sell anything. I share what I’m doing, when I'm doing it and how I'm doing it with hopes that sharing the process adds to you.
9. Never trade with money you can’t afford to lose. Read My trading rules.
10. Recs., comments, and new members in our community are my guide to know if I am doing a good job and adding some value to the community. That said, please don't Rec., comment, or join unless you were getting some value from my blogs. This is not a beauty contest. Let me move on to put my energy somewhere else where I believe it's needed. Until then, Recs. are good for your karma :), comments, questions, or contributions though are obligations.  
11. If someone asked a question, which I answered before or you know the answer, please step in and either copy and paste my answer or put it in your own words.
12. If I missed your question, please, ask again. I’ll try to answer as many questions as I can but don’t expect an immediate response.
13. Thanks for your thankful comments. I read them all and they cheer my heart but I'll not reply for everyone of them to save some time. That said, Keep them coming. :)

      Thanks for understanding.

     Stay positive. Winning begins within. Strength & Honor, brothers and sisters!

GoodVibe
Mr. Lucky

Our talented frinky11 (where are you buddy?)

184 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On March 13, 2009 at 12:10 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Who is the offender who recommended this post? Step in and say your name. You didn't even read it yet. :)

GoodVibe

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#2) On March 13, 2009 at 12:15 AM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

Rule number 10 conflicts with the Notice.  Since RULES are more important than random notices, then here is your REC NUMBER 2.  If you bounce my blog out of the top running then that's okay with me, although I did give you a VERY honorable mention near the end. :)

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#3) On March 13, 2009 at 12:19 AM, Option1307 (30.06) wrote:

Woo Hoo, thanks GV for the shout out!

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#4) On March 13, 2009 at 12:23 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Can anybody is simplify (put in less words) the guidelines and proofread them if possible. Do you have another guideline you would like see or one that you want removed. Anchak, you said you would like to add one. Please step in everybody. These are meant to make us all comfortable and save us time.

Don't proofread here for space sake. Please, email me @ goodvibe07 -at- yhaoo. Thanks! Back to more work.

GoodVibe

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#5) On March 13, 2009 at 12:36 AM, isusan (< 20) wrote:

It's my rec, and I'll put it wherever I want.  Sheesh, you'd think we were your followers or something... ;)  Just dropped off one for you too, TSIF, that was cute.

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#6) On March 13, 2009 at 12:52 AM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

GV~ looks like you got the last laugh when I broke your rules in the personal blog and you cut my "GV thank you" out.. I'll let it slide. As I didn't want a response, nonetheless. My words to "who I am" to the public are spoken true! Thanks for adding me and my family to the mix.

Now, lets see what you got GV!!! I'm dieing here!! I think I know, but I can only guess on the large movement up in the last serveral days. It's really show how far I need to go when I'm second guessing myself on the count when I'm using your base template for the larger count.

"the more I learn, the more I realize I need to learn" ---- umm me?? maybe I heard that somewhere. But it's refreshing to get back to learning and study like when I got into networking (computers) 12 years ago... I feel like new man! 

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#7) On March 13, 2009 at 1:41 AM, BaitBoyinOK (< 20) wrote:

Wow, I am both humbled and honored, both of us are, that we were included. Don't know if you ever saw the post how I got my nickname - fished with a couple of ol' farts that are older than me and they tagged me with that moniker that has stuck with me on the Texas Gulf Coast ever since somewhere around '91 or '92. I have since (earlier tonight) updated the 'who are you' with a bit more info, and will add to it as time goes on. I wish I had your latest update charts to figure out what to do tonight, BUT, I am confident that if I just sit with what I have, that I will STILL come out ahead in the end. Live long and prosper! Ecomike - we should talk - worked for Brown Oil Tools, which became Brown-Hughes, which became Baker Hughes, etc, etc, back between '76 and '87. I never got my name on any of the patents, but a good number of their progressive designs came out of my now scrambled brains. I was head of production and the Mfg. VP wouldn't let them put my name on the patents because he did not want the head of engineering to convert me to an (shudder here) engineering position. Wow, what a long and convoluted path a career can take in this world!

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#8) On March 13, 2009 at 2:13 AM, frinky11 (28.44) wrote:

Hey GV, thanks for the embeds/views!  Any requests?(anyone?)

I ordered the EWT text a couple days ago, and I'm having to restrain myself from constantly checking the mailbox...  

Trying to figure out what's going on with UCO/SCO.  I've printed out some charts, and am trying to find the right wave counts...  I'm sure the textbook will be very helpful.

Is anybody else working on oil price related charts? Sorry if it was posted before and I missed it... could someone add a link?

 lovingkindness

-frinky11

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#9) On March 13, 2009 at 3:23 AM, frinky11 (28.44) wrote:

 D'oh. Found oil chart here

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#10) On March 13, 2009 at 3:53 AM, kingofshorts (< 20) wrote:

Option1307

at 26 i knew everything just like you now that i'm old i find i find i know very little ! no need to reply

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#11) On March 13, 2009 at 3:54 AM, kingofshorts (< 20) wrote:

Option1307

at 26 i knew everything just like you now that i'm old i find i find i know very little ! no need to reply

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#12) On March 13, 2009 at 3:59 AM, oversea (< 20) wrote:

Good Morning Everybody!
In a haste before going to work. It seems that I'm the first to get up in this community.

Asian shares have done very nicely, European stock exchanges are going to open and it looks like they'll be positive.

I'm holding, I'm bullish for to day. See you this afternoon (your morning = my afternoon).

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#13) On March 13, 2009 at 8:10 AM, kstarich (30.22) wrote:

OOOPS :-)

Sorry GV, I just automatically click rec. and follow on your post so I can keep up with comments

I get your pooint and in future I will not rec.  

We all adore you and just want everyone at CAPS to know it:-)

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#14) On March 13, 2009 at 8:31 AM, RVAspeculator (29.15) wrote:

Goodvibe...  

I took a look at your caps account this morning and saw you already know the "never close a pick that is losing, no matter how bad it is trick".   It takes most CAPS members a few months to figure that one out, I know it took me a while!  :)

You really did NOT have another account out here before the November of 2008??

I don't care either way, I still enjoy reading your blogs but I am just curious...  Sometimes I think I should start over so my accuracy is in the 70's or 80's but I already have good relationships with a lot of people in CAPS and don't want to start a new blog and new persona....   As long as I can stay in the 90's so people still read my blogs I am happy.   :)

Anyway, have a great trading day..  should be able to bank some more coin this morning.

RVA

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#15) On March 13, 2009 at 8:35 AM, PrestonCheek (31.67) wrote:

I still have not rec'd, thank you. Have some control people. :)

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#16) On March 13, 2009 at 8:58 AM, geno0010 (< 20) wrote:

I have been reading up on this group for a few days now and am wondering what book everyone is reading. I am very new to TA, but would like to become better at studying charts. Any help would be appreciated!

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#17) On March 13, 2009 at 9:10 AM, Mazzart (< 20) wrote:

Good morning all...I guess I caused just a little bit of drama last night asking Preston to re-post something I didn't have...Then I went to bed and just started catching this morning...LOL

Thank you Preston...sorry GV

Yes I'm me and real..or really me....and yes no profile. I'm afraid I'm just a lurker trying to learn without the time to get involved....sorry

Stumbled on this blog about the same time GV showed up last year and watched as things unfolded as he generously helped others who most definately have a better understanding than me on how to invest.....I came along for the ride to learn and follow and get a litlle lucky on others hard work

 Mazz

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#18) On March 13, 2009 at 9:12 AM, isusan (< 20) wrote:

Here it is, geno0010.  Elliott wave principle

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#19) On March 13, 2009 at 9:26 AM, binve (< 20) wrote:

Hey GV, No rec yet from me. But here watching (with good vibes of course :) ).

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#20) On March 13, 2009 at 9:27 AM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

Thanks iSusan!    GV, you asked a question on my blog this morning and I expect you  are too busy to go back to it, but I want to make sure that you know that:

GV, you commented in my very first Fool Blog with some great advice back in December!  Long before you were famous!   I had just gotten the ICE Cold award.  I'm learning.  Thanks!

P.S.  The REC mania was started by a couple of famous (in thier view) Fools that have a need a need to spread their fertilizer on people rather than to be productive and grow relationships. (ref my blog).  Your home post today that we are not "allowed" to comment on called that perfectly.  You should NOT be concerned with the REC Mania!  Just keep being YOU!  You did not start the REC Mania, you started the GoodVibe Mania!   Rec's do help us feel like someone is out there, besides ourselves or someone with 65,000 arms!  :)   

Community Guidelines NUMBER 10 People...did you agree to the Community Guidelines?  If so guidelines OVERRULE vague notices!  RECS!

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#21) On March 13, 2009 at 9:37 AM, isusan (< 20) wrote:

If you have a moment, this blog is too good to miss...A Little Piece of The Garcipian Just Left Earth

 

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#22) On March 13, 2009 at 9:49 AM, GVdrone (< 20) wrote:

Put/Call at .52? too low to be right?

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$CPC&p=D&yr=2&mn=4&dy=0&id=p87619530762&a=160945843

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#23) On March 13, 2009 at 9:59 AM, ekramer17 (< 20) wrote:

GV, a quick thank you and a question.  I haven't traded on your calls (I'm not one for blind faith, and I like to really feel that I personally have a grasp of what I'm doing before trying something), but I feel like the gains I have made in knowledge from your blogs -- as a result of both your posts and of the participation of everyone else -- would trump any dollars I would have made regardless.

Taking my first nibbles of Prechter and looking forward to larger bites.

Forgive my shameless picking of your brain, but might you have any recommendations regarding other resources (books, et al) in other swing-trading-relevant subjects, such as money management, hedging strategies, etc.?

Thanks again!

Cabot

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#24) On March 13, 2009 at 10:04 AM, Mary953 (78.91) wrote:

Hi guys,

I'm still asleep at the moment.  I just sent my hands in to wish you well - oh, and to send you something I found that you might find fun.  Let me know what you think.

 

And, GV, a lot of people (me included) rec some posts automatically because they like the people who write them.  It is something of a courtesy, a thanks for being here and adding so much.  Given time, we will learn to look first so that we can tell whether or not you want recs. 

Mary.

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#25) On March 13, 2009 at 10:07 AM, murugan2 (37.53) wrote:

Cabot,

Not speaking for GV, but for myself, I found that "Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets" by Murphy - available at AMZN is a good introduction to all sorts of TA including Elliot Wave, Candlestick, head and shoulders etc...

Current personal situation: holding a few zombie calls, longer terms longs and mostly cash. 

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#26) On March 13, 2009 at 10:17 AM, MastiffFool (< 20) wrote:

Good morning everyone.  Congratulations to all who remained disciplined and received some nice gains the last couple of days by following GV's charts!

Me on the other hand, I got nervous and missed the rally by pulling some boneheaded mistakes. But there will be more opportunities for me to make money!

Dan

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#27) On March 13, 2009 at 10:20 AM, DanDarby (< 20) wrote:

Hi Everyone,

Just to see if I'm on the same page as everyone else...

We are still in wave (4) waiting for the 3 wave correction a,b,c. After that the second 5 waves up of wave (4) will start to complete wave (4). Then wave (5) can start.

Is this correct?

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#28) On March 13, 2009 at 10:27 AM, fladoy (96.41) wrote:

yes dan that's right

although given the amazing ride up this week, we may top out of wave 4 and go strait into wave 5, but GV is the guru here not I

GV are you starting to consider the possibility that we could go way higher and that we are still in wave 3 down. or have i let the past few days put me in a irrational exuberance way of thinking

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#29) On March 13, 2009 at 10:33 AM, jimmybroderick (< 20) wrote:

Dan and flad,

where is your count starting from?  I understand what you are saying, but am lost as to where you're starting from on the chart (and which chart at that)

Thanks

Jim

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#30) On March 13, 2009 at 10:34 AM, innerflame (< 20) wrote:

Dan- I also am still learning so didn't do this one as well as I wanted to- but it just gets me more stable and ready for the next opportunity. So I think we're all waiting for GV to weigh in and see what his thoughts are...

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#31) On March 13, 2009 at 10:37 AM, columbia1 wrote:

This is how I spent my night last night, these are the first of the season. This was this ewes first lambing and she was a little confused, it made for a long night, but all is well this morning!!

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#32) On March 13, 2009 at 10:46 AM, DanDarby (< 20) wrote:

Thanks flad!

Jimmy, take a look at this chart

flame, I'm starting to get some confidence back also. Hopefully we'll all get a little better with each opportunity

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#33) On March 13, 2009 at 10:50 AM, kstarich (30.22) wrote:

Mary

Love the clip :-)

Innerflame

I am with you.  I think it's a good day to sit back, see what GV says, learn some more and plan for the next move.  Right now I'm looking for some great buys.  I'm thinking CAT, KWK, GE, BA and a few ETF's.

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#34) On March 13, 2009 at 10:50 AM, kingofshorts (< 20) wrote:

columbia,

how you do that and can it be made so the picture can be inlarged?

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#35) On March 13, 2009 at 10:59 AM, kstarich (30.22) wrote:

GV

For us cavepeople here, on your next chart it would be great to see some annotations for new cheese.  I am still learning the rythem of the charts.  Thanks for your patience.

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#36) On March 13, 2009 at 11:08 AM, Tutom (< 20) wrote:

Good morning. Sorry about posting to the main blog page this morning. I could barely focus to read the directions at 6 am this morn. 

Good luck today everyone! 

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#37) On March 13, 2009 at 11:08 AM, columbia1 wrote:

Kingshorts, I can chose what size to post, and to post it you use this code-

 >img src="?"/<</p>

note, the greater and lesser signs are reversed in order to show you the code. And the question mark is the URL or address. You find that by right clicking on your mouse over the picture you wish to copy, chose properties and then copy the URL. Paste that where the ? is and your done. Make sure that when you paste it here that no blue characters appear, if they do you need to break the link by highlighting it and clicking on the break-link button.

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#38) On March 13, 2009 at 11:10 AM, kingofshorts (< 20) wrote:

two things to kept in mind while your doing your ta work some fear is leaving the market and a little sideline money is starting to come in!

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#39) On March 13, 2009 at 11:14 AM, bigafro (< 20) wrote:

I'm trying hard to understand this:

 Are you watching our brother, Mr. VIX calling for help from his MA 200? This is when the market going to tank, when his 200 answers the call and hold the lines.

As we can see, Mr. VIX said "tag! you're it" and ran up. So my question, if he continues to break away, does that mean (5) might be shorter than expected?

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#40) On March 13, 2009 at 11:20 AM, columbia1 wrote:

Kingshorts- If you want to use a personal photo of yours, upload it to Photobucket. There you can fix, edit, and size them. The site is really user-friendly!!

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#41) On March 13, 2009 at 11:24 AM, Mary953 (78.91) wrote:

Whoever said this in an early post can claim credit if you wish.  I am learning the value now. The comment I remember was that Every time this person had traded when under stress or when ill, he had made mistakes because he wasn't reacting properly.  I think I have been doing a bit of that.  When I had stock, I wanted to sell because I was nervous to be holding on to something that might lose value.  When I didn't have stock, I didn't want to be out of the market because I might miss having a chance to make money. 

Then I started to mix my A,B,C's, my 1,2,3's, and my a,b,c's up and got confused that way.  At this point, I need to step back, run a few errands, check in from time to time, and maybe exercise until my head clears. 

Innerflame, that is what my thoughts are.  Step back to see the big picture - which includes stepping forward to my email and firing off a note asking what happened with my Elliott book!  It should have been here a week ago.  

Until I have an idea of what is happening with the market better, I will pass along some non-market ideas if you like.

For those of you with kids - Geography is getting more important.  Find a map or a globe.  Use string to measure out a distance your child is familiar with.  (1" = Our house to Disney World = 1 very, very long travel day)  Then pull a can of food off of a shelf, or a toy, or a DVD, or anything with a label.  Where was it made?  Find it on the map.  The string is just there to help realize that the map represents a lot more distance than you would expect.  (If your child writes this up - instant Social Studies project "The World that Lives at My House"  Display would include items, map, possibly other things from those places (very visual).  --  and Yes I did just make that up -- have fun!)

If you liked the Lord of the Rings above, there are lots of those on Youtube.  Search on  "How it should have ended"  Can someone find and put up some of these?

And are these sorts of comments "trivializing" the site?

Mary

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#42) On March 13, 2009 at 11:33 AM, tsoang (< 20) wrote:

Hi guys,

 I've been using the 3x ETF but they decay too fast and don't maximize the return. I'm thinking of buying options on IVV but the spreads are high. Does anyone have a better way to trade the S&P500? Thanks guys. Appreciate it. 

-tsoang

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#43) On March 13, 2009 at 11:38 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Ready, aim, got you.... Just kidding! :)

What's up everybody? Enjoying your day?

Thanks guys for the emails, I'll respond to them soon.

BRB

GoodVibe

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#44) On March 13, 2009 at 11:39 AM, columbia1 wrote:

I have been watching the charts and if we can get below about 743, we would break out of the wave A channel, maybe starting wave B down of wave 4.

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#45) On March 13, 2009 at 11:56 AM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

Posted most of these on the other thread. I added a 5day as well.

FYI, I'm holding true to the plan for wave C Sell of SSO. I will consider a sell if the 5day channel breaks, but not sure yet.

SPX - 1year 6mo

SPX-1yr-6mo

Enlarge

SPX- 3 Mo

 SPX-3mo

Enlarge

SPX 15 day

 SPX15day

Enlarge

SPX- 5 day

 spx-5day

Enlarge

Hope these help and thx GV for laying down the base work. Would like your thoughts on 5day, but I think your in watch mode before you draw any hard lines or counts.... I like guessing...lol

**** NOTICE **** Most of these are from GV's work (just updated) but for my own counts on 15 and 5 days take it with a grain of salt.

Sorry all for making this blog far

~happy hunting~

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#46) On March 13, 2009 at 11:59 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Lady K - If you're getting value from my blog, you must Rec. unless I mentioned otherwise. I guess most of you didn't find my last post good enough. :( Hey, don't go and Rec. :) The charts are coming in the weekend and you will have the time to reevaluate. 

RVA #14 - It's good to read the manual before you operate the machine. I read the rules before I start for the FIRST time in caps back in December. I was a regular contributor to an obscure yahoo board NLS and Tigerpack ask me to come and have a Cap. I think those who find me not their cup of tea should blame TigerPack. That was the story of why and when. For the style, I am aiming of having all positive return to most if not all my picks before I close them. Not only to the S&P but also to the stock itself. You know that you can get points in Caps even if you have a negative return in life? This is just a joke. And by the way, I sometimes read that you can double up here in Caps? What's that?

TSIF #20 - I remember now. That was fun to respond to. I mean to myself :)
Cabot - I'll get to this list in the near future.

Dan - This is the current scenario

Flad - You are the man! You're the one who saw yesterday extension coming before anyone else. And no, we're out of wave (3) for sure but we want little bit more time to know what wave exactly we are in. This rally is strong and the pull back will be a tell.

Everybody - can you tell me what yesterday and today's extension formed? And what’s yesterday up mean in my trading experience, which I communicated last month? Let's see who read and remember my notes. Two very important real time experience. 

What am I doing now?

Little broken hearted but cheerful soul! I know you might reading this and I want to tell you that you're always in my mind. :)  

Current 745

GoodVibe

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#47) On March 13, 2009 at 12:04 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Thanks Russ for the charts. Well done brother! They are correct as if I did them myself. It's a very good scenario. and I am waiting for the end of C but I have to do more side work than Elliott to have a plan.

Now I am just having a moment of peace.

GoodVibe

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#48) On March 13, 2009 at 12:06 PM, herztical (28.27) wrote:

hanging in there...kind of bored.  Dry bulks down bc of BDI (expected); tried to double up on more SSO Mar puts this morning but just missed order @ 30; GS will be a complete bogey next week depending on earnings / and this whole mark-to-whatyouwant thing...options premiums should be high prior though.  Well that sums it up from my desk....maybe a chart would give me something to study!  JK no pressure

 

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#49) On March 13, 2009 at 12:16 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

Ok, I went back and tried to see what (time-frame) chart made the most logical since to me.

It's got to be the 3-mo chart. I added some trend lines and it seems to flow the best. That 772 mark looks very possible hitting both resistance lines to confirm the new wave 5 down. I think the bulls might give it a nice test but won't hold. IMHO

Here are the new trend lines added to the 3 month

 SPX-3mo

Enlarge

Thanks for the kind words GV!

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#50) On March 13, 2009 at 12:19 PM, kingofshorts (< 20) wrote:

gv you sound

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=STyl6dmw07E&feature=related

is'nt love wonderfull!!!

take the weekend off

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#51) On March 13, 2009 at 12:29 PM, Ecomike (< 20) wrote:

BaitBoyinOK,

I probably made sales calls on you in the late 70s early 80's as a sales engineer selling and servicing cleaning and coating equipment. Small world. Email at cpssco@earthlink.net

 GV's herd,

 I am getting better at timing HIG and PNX buys and sells, I bought at 11 am yesterday, sold at 10 am today for nice 25% and 75% profit! Made back some of last weeks losses.  Seems that the insurance companies have a time lag and bottom last at market bottom, turn up or down last as the market turns or changes direction, and make their biggest gains last in a rally. Picked off a $1.5 move, about 25% net on HIG's last run up between early yesterday and this morning, and a 75% overall gain on PNX at the same time. But I must disclose that I previously bought too early, and bailed to early on prior attempts to play them. 

 

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#52) On March 13, 2009 at 12:30 PM, Ecomike (< 20) wrote:

Does youtube have "slip slidin away"?

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#53) On March 13, 2009 at 12:34 PM, helicopterfool (69.32) wrote:

Thanks GV - Keep up the great work.  I've learned more from you and the caps community than any other publication that I ever bought.

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#54) On March 13, 2009 at 12:35 PM, anibas (65.37) wrote:

GV-

I have the answer to your second question in #46:

There's a non-scientific thing but it’s well tried. It’s that Thursday the week before option expiration is a misdirection day. So, if we go down today, we suppose to finish higher than today's close by Friday 20th. It worked for me 9 out of 10 times.

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#55) On March 13, 2009 at 12:38 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Frinky - I enjoyed your music a lot. Man, you have to put that talent to work. I listened to all your stuff and waiting for the next one. Give us a buzz when you post. Can you make us a song that can be our trademark? Something that matches our vibes. I'll let you choose.

Thanks King!

GoodVibe

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#56) On March 13, 2009 at 12:40 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

anibas #54 got one! That means by next Friday we will close below Thursday's high. Cheer out shorts! :)

GoodVibe

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#57) On March 13, 2009 at 12:44 PM, Ecomike (< 20) wrote:

OMG, it's Friday the 13th for the second month in  a row!

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#58) On March 13, 2009 at 12:56 PM, murugan2 (37.53) wrote:

Bought a small position of QLD at the last low - about SP743.  Looking to sell at end of wave C.  Hopefully not too much downside before C.

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#59) On March 13, 2009 at 12:59 PM, Ecomike (< 20) wrote:

It may be time to look at shorting GM soon. It is way up partly on news that it will take an extra 4 weeks for it run out of cash, LOL.

 

GV,

 

thanks, I thionk I am finally starting to understand VIX. IT is a hard one get a handle on, as its value has no precise meaning out of context of the markets. It's meaning varies with the market postion, wave count,  and whether or not you are contrarian. You last answer to me finally gave me some bearings. Thanks again!

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#60) On March 13, 2009 at 1:10 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

Speaking of VIX, that bounce off the 200 MA was right on.

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#61) On March 13, 2009 at 1:12 PM, murugan2 (37.53) wrote:

GV,

Quick question, what is the difference between the recent double highs seen between March 9-13 on the  Wm% section of the chart in #49 and what you would call a "suicide note"?

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#62) On March 13, 2009 at 1:13 PM, tahoestock (30.21) wrote:

Hey Russ....

Great job on the charts; I now print and study yours as well as GV's.  Thanks for your awesome contribution to this community! 

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#63) On March 13, 2009 at 1:21 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Here's a chart update and answer to my second quesion that no one got it.

Large SP

Enlarge

I am not trading this one. Just communicating. There is a lot in this tape more than we can see. Just watching. Current 751.83

GoodVibe

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#64) On March 13, 2009 at 1:26 PM, columbia1 wrote:

I see it, Wave A is forming a bear triangle (wedge)!!

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#65) On March 13, 2009 at 1:45 PM, adventure818 (< 20) wrote:

Hiya!

Would love info on setting stops. Been reading EWT book and this blog and am really beginning to SEE! Thanks everyone for all your helpfulness and contributing. OK, so stops: what parameters do you consider when you decide to set them, what is considered "tight" etc. This surely depends on timeframe so please make sure to mention that. And if this is answered elsewhere just send the link or something.

Thanks so much - need to be able to get my face out of my computer screen and get back to saving the world ;-)

Adventurer818

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#66) On March 13, 2009 at 1:45 PM, murugan2 (37.53) wrote:

Wow, I wish I had seen that suicide note before I made my move in #58 - at least it was small enough to easily hedge against.

Dont I get partial credit for my comment in #61 though?

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#67) On March 13, 2009 at 1:53 PM, bio7 (< 20) wrote:

GV,

 Thank you again for all of your time and effort.  It is much appreciated.

 I have started reading the book.  I have a question regarding the horizontal blue line at the 700 level on your last chart (post #63).   I'm trying to figure out why you put that line there. I think it is where you think it might possible go to or support level but how did you arrive at the decision to put that line exactly where it is?

 

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#68) On March 13, 2009 at 2:00 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

I see GV, but didn't get it when you asked the question. Last wave down to B is looking good. I'm hoping the 735 support will hold to conclude B and start C.

Tahoe~ Just doing my part, and it's still not enough. Thanks though

GV~ I asked a question on the other blog that you didn't answer so I'm going to ask again. The 40k loan that you got when you started out. How long did you study and practice with the 12k before you got the loan?

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#69) On March 13, 2009 at 2:07 PM, anchak (99.87) wrote:

Given all that's going on with work - just tooo busy....this is turining out to be a such a nice "do nothing" day.

The "wedge pattern" or I think contracting diagonal or something ( I am still not upto speed with all the jargon) - was great! However given that we ended up having an extended 5 of A - means B would be a little volatile - correct?

The VIX was a good play -

Also isn't this moving "fast and furious" - I mean B itself would by logic be 3 wave - I think it was down to 743.....if that was "a" ...then this trace back could be a correction .....is this correct?

 

 

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#70) On March 13, 2009 at 2:07 PM, LawfordCap (99.74) wrote:

Hi GV,

I have been following your blogs and you have not only led me to learn about EWs but also to the source of your inspiration.

Here I just wanted to share my thoughts on CAPS scores as it may be of value to some people.

My feeling is that CAPS assumes that very few people have the ability to share anything useful about the direction of the S&P 500. However many people may have experience in a sector, a company or product which could be of value to the market (has not been priced into the market) and sharing it with the community can add additional value. I feel CAPS takes the position that such specialized sector or company information more closely resembles relative value information rather than overall market direction hence it scores players as such.

For a person who plays with the direction of the broad market as you do scoring in CAPS is going to to be different and is likely going to gain through leverage etfs.

Thank you for your teaching its already been a real help.

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#71) On March 13, 2009 at 2:14 PM, Mary953 (78.91) wrote:

As requested -

And as a thank you -

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#72) On March 13, 2009 at 2:21 PM, nevercanstop (< 20) wrote:

GV,

You totally crack me up.  The "suicide note" remark in your latest chart has my chuckling for the last half hour.

As I stated yesterday, I sold out all my longs at the close yesterday.  I shorted some of the oil services this morning at the open and covered them before lunch.  Have no positions at the moment, but if we get a bit of a rally this afternoon I may put out some shorts.

Hope you got, and enjoyed, some rest this morning...

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#73) On March 13, 2009 at 2:39 PM, GVdrone (< 20) wrote:

murugan2,

I made the same move, bought QLD. Then you said "I wish I had seen that suicide note before I made my move in #58 - at least it was small enough to easily hedge against."

wouldn't the suicide note be good for us?

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#74) On March 13, 2009 at 2:48 PM, murugan2 (37.53) wrote:

GVdrone,

Suicide note means its set to plunge - bad news for QLD.  I bought some QID to hedge against this possible scenario.  I think in this case the only winner is etrade - double commissions when I sell.

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#75) On March 13, 2009 at 2:48 PM, anchak (99.87) wrote:

GV..... There's a lot of importance on this little piece - isn't it.....if it goes up from here -after a minor pullback and captures 772 - it really starts making things interesting....

Because both by shape and proportion - you would almost be inclined to think 1 of {1}.....however if B is severe - then 5 remains on the table.

My 2 cents

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#76) On March 13, 2009 at 2:50 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

I came back and looked at the chart above again and I said to myself why I always like to forget rule #4 I see a very good risk/reward short @ 766 -768, which I see it coming as early as today. But I said I want to spend sometime with more individual stocks and more analysis to find my edge and see underneath this tape. I don't like this chart and I better take easy. Made enough money this week and greed is not good. 

Current 755

BRB after a bite of salmon. Would you like some?

GoodVibe

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#77) On March 13, 2009 at 3:00 PM, ayekappy (< 20) wrote:

GV - Dunno if it was bad to be one step ahead but I cleared or am clearing all of my longs, as much as it hurts for some. Bought puts for RSH and WFMI.

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#78) On March 13, 2009 at 3:05 PM, fladoy (96.41) wrote:

your chart in 63 sets up a high probability trade and seems to go against your rule 4. if you aren't trading because you are happy with your weekly gain, isn't this breaking rule 5.

just having some fun with you

 

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#79) On March 13, 2009 at 3:07 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

Last hour rally or fall.... humm.

 spx-5day

Enlarge

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#80) On March 13, 2009 at 3:29 PM, ayekappy (< 20) wrote:

Although, I am confused that EI chose today to thumbs down SKF.  A few other good CAPS people are suddenly bullish today and yesterday too, weird.  

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#81) On March 13, 2009 at 3:36 PM, bothisellhigher (< 20) wrote:

GV,

Looking at a 1 year chart of $INX (S&P 500,) here is what I see. S&P is in a major downtrend...the last support area was 745 (rounded off)...that support broke with the 729 closing of March 2...from there prices fell to a trading low of 666 (hmmmm!?) on March 6, and after closing on March 9 at 676...have staged a 3 day (reactive?) rally, closing yesterday (March 12) at 750.

Here is how I see it...prices have reacte back to the last sell signal (745) which is a pretty common pattern...(penetrate support, react back to that support, then continue down as per the major downtrend.)

If prices don't penetrate 745 support, which is also at the major downtrend...(penetration to me would be a close of 760 or more (+/- 2%)...then it is more probable that the major downtrend continues, making SDS (S+P500-short) a solid play.

How does this analysis compare to all your various waves breaking on the shore?  What am I missing?  And, should prices close above 760 today (3/13) or in the near future, wouldn't that signal a breaking of the major downtrend and the beginning of the basing-bull trend process, making SPY or other longs the more solid play.

It seems we really are at the Rubicon.

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#82) On March 13, 2009 at 4:00 PM, kstarich (30.22) wrote:

What happened to the inverse head and shoulders theory?

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#83) On March 13, 2009 at 4:01 PM, Mary953 (78.91) wrote:

I have decided to pass the ability to jump to the top or bottom of a blog to the rest of CAPS.  It might make life easier for the rest of them too.  Have a good weekend folks.  I don't know what next week holds but it won't be dull now, will it?

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#84) On March 13, 2009 at 4:05 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

Amazing ending for the day. Monday is going to be one for the books! I was a hair trigger away from selling SSO if it broke the 758 high today. Extended A wave for sure. You can almost feel the market trying to get to the level where we will need to decide if 666 was "the bottom" or Wave 5 down starts. Exciting time ahead. This is better than a good movie...lol

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#85) On March 13, 2009 at 4:11 PM, innerflame (< 20) wrote:

Thanks for your charts Russwild - and you are RIGHT! All the excitement and fun ( and thrills and spills) are right here on this blog. I want to add something about facing fear- but it will have to wait- my 13 year old is calling. Practiced yet MORE patience and staying calm in the eye of the storm today. Not everyone finds this as enjoyable as I do. Have a great weekend everyone. It's sunny here in MA!! YEA!

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#86) On March 13, 2009 at 4:30 PM, herztical (28.27) wrote:

adventure: OK, so stops: what parameters do you consider when you decide to set them, what is considered "tight" etc. This surely depends on timeframe so please make sure to mention that

Stops are where you sell (or cover if short) a position; usually for a loss. They have nothing to do with time...."tight" stops are orders you place close to your purchase price so not to take a big loss; generally stops are set for losses but can be used to "lock in" gains. 

ex. Buy 100 XYZ @ $100 you can set a stop @ $90 which would be a max 10% loss, a "tight" stop might be @ $97.50 max loss 2.5%....now if the stock goes to $120 after you buy, you can set a stop @ $115 to lock in a 15% gain.  You can also set by %...Hope that helps.

Russ,

Not so sure on Monday (of course depends on stock) but I think it's a coin flip for TA we burned off our oversold condition; From a fundamental point of view what really changed this week? Not a whole lot.  Not a bear, not a bull, just a pragmatist

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#87) On March 13, 2009 at 4:30 PM, binve (< 20) wrote:

kstarich From GVs last blog post http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=152771&t=01009449456398254945, comments #107, and #156 (shown below).

Basically I think of the right shoulder as failed. And so the target measured from the neckline would have been 770ish. Based on the action today it doesn't look like we will get there on this. Run. But we got part of the way there ~755. But none of it was a clean trade, because the rally did not launch from a pullback nor was there really huge volume when it took off. It smelled like short covering. Which can be nice and profitable, as this one turned out to be if you were long. I was not. I sat in cash the last 2 days because I did not like the structure of the rally. At somepoint next week we will pull back, and I will be watching to see how far we pull back and if there is corresponding volume when it turns back up again. 

It is much better to trade pullbacks instead of breakouts (in my opinion). Well maybe "safer" is the right word? :)

-------------------

GV,

I am not crazy about it. It looks like it will push through the neckline. But the MACD divergence for the breakout (on a 30 minute chart) is less than encouraging. If it breaks out, my guess is that it will be pretty weak.


Enlarge

No sir, I am not buying it. I am still mostly in cash at the moment. This is a risky setup for not a lot of reward for the very short term (couple of days). I would like to see a more meaningful pullback before I put some more money in.I think your chart in comment #124 tells a more compelling story. I would like to see a setup that looks more like that. 

So. I would not go short here. I would also not add longs. Wait for a better pull back to buy more longs. But right now offers a good opportunity to take some short term profits.

All just my opinion of course :). Thanks!

 

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#88) On March 13, 2009 at 4:41 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Here's one chart I am trying to understand. Chew on it until I finish my work. Russ, anchak, binve, and bios especially will like it. I have also some questions to answer here, which I'll do later. So hang up there. Same for your emails. Thank you!

Nano SP

Enlarge

Enjoy your weekend. And please don't forget to tell me who are you?

GoodVibe

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#89) On March 13, 2009 at 4:51 PM, burtman99 (39.38) wrote:

There was a gap formed Monday AM on the SPX between 677.11 and 679.28.  Now some don't believe in "filling the gaps" but I have yet to see an SPX gap go unfilled.  677.11 may be a target for the downturn.  We may not pass 666.79 but I have a good idea we may fill the gap.  Just my opinion.

Thanks,

Burt

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#90) On March 13, 2009 at 4:51 PM, burtman99 (39.38) wrote:

There was a gap formed Monday AM on the SPX between 677.11 and 679.28.  Now some don't believe in "filling the gaps" but I have yet to see an SPX gap go unfilled.  677.11 may be a target for the downturn.  We may not pass 666.79 but I have a good idea we may fill the gap.  Just my opinion.

Thanks,

Burt

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#91) On March 13, 2009 at 4:52 PM, burtman99 (39.38) wrote:

There was a gap formed Monday AM on the SPX between 677.11 and 679.28.  Now some don't believe in "filling the gaps" but I have yet to see an SPX gap go unfilled.  677.11 may be a target for the downturn.  We may not pass 666.79 but I have a good idea we may fill the gap.  Just my opinion.

Thanks,

Burt

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#92) On March 13, 2009 at 4:53 PM, anchak (99.87) wrote:

ayekappy: Michael ( ie Everyday) ....was running a hedged Leveraged ETF short strategy - ie short both the legs....thus in order to multiply his gains in CAPS - he needs to close and re-short everytime the pick goes 5+ - "reload" as its popularly called in CAPS.

Additionally, I saw him comment that he's actually going to close out his Long Levered side and lets his Short-the-Short run - essentially he's definitely turning a tad bullish. The levered shorts are destined for zero - just by their structure.

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#93) On March 13, 2009 at 4:54 PM, burtman99 (39.38) wrote:

Oops,  sorry about the triple post

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#94) On March 13, 2009 at 5:10 PM, bio7 (< 20) wrote:

GV,

 After looking at the chart in #88, I think the answer to my question is, "the blue line around the 700 area is the line of profitibility for trades 1 through 4 (?).

 

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#95) On March 13, 2009 at 5:18 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

GV~ Yeah, either a 1,2,1,2,3,4,5,3,4,5, pattern or 758 fails and B starts. Hard to tell at this point, but that support line didn't want to fail today. We might be past covering and getting some long interest here.

I was messing around with the same count today, but we tried to do the same count on a upturn that turned out to be a wave 4. 1,2,1,2,1,2.. but ended as a flat 4. Regardless we still have C up or continue with the new count. Lot of up support to the 770 range.

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#96) On March 13, 2009 at 7:25 PM, adventure818 (< 20) wrote:

Thanks for your example Herztical, that helps answer my question re: stops. (ex. Buy 100 XYZ @ $100 you can set a stop @ $90 which would be a max 10% loss, a "tight" stop might be @ $97.50 max loss 2.5%....now if the stock goes to $120 after you buy, you can set a stop @ $115 to lock in a 15% gain.  You can also set by %...Hope that helps.)

 

What I'm really seeking is guidance on deciding how to set them, if possible. I do use them. And that is what I could see might depend on whether one's trading goals were for a daytrade or buying on a TA-based low and being willing to ride a few corrections over the next days/weeks/month for higher profit. Been making some good coin holding things for a few days/week (ignore my CAPS rating, I need to set that up better) just would like to be able to walk away from my computer with the correct stops in place so that a little correction doesn't cash me out and I miss the bigger move.

 

So was wondering if anyone would consider sharing their thoughts on how they set these. if appropriate to this blog.

 

Meanwhile, thanks all and especially those of you who generously prepare and post your charts. This has been a huge learning opportunity!!

 

Have fun over the weekend and here's to more adventure next week, eh?

Adventurer

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#97) On March 13, 2009 at 7:50 PM, point312 (< 20) wrote:

GV and Crew

Thanks again for the charts and the insight.I'am still learning.I did make alittle money on my small investment.I missed some highs and some lows and fell pretty close to my plan.Im pretty happy.In my world its 120% or nothing so it was a learning curve for me to sit back and watch this investment.I gotta go though i have to head to Vegas for more training i might have a fight soon.I was packing my bag and saw a shirt i think Gv should buy.I have 2 of them but they are used so i wont send one to you...but here is the link i think you will like it...

have a good weekend everyone!!!!

 

 

http://www.howardliu.com/catalog/accessories/tshirts/tshirt_sh.htm

 

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#98) On March 13, 2009 at 8:25 PM, herztical (28.27) wrote:

...adventure

it all depends on how much your willing to lose or at least be able to look at.  If your comfortable staring at 20% losses for months go ahead.  Personally, I dump anything that drops below 5% and I don't look back right away either, I just move on. Never turn a trade into an investment.

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#99) On March 13, 2009 at 8:35 PM, herztical (28.27) wrote:

...that's also why I got stopped out on SSO before the big rally the otherday. But moved into FCX 

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#100) On March 13, 2009 at 10:15 PM, anchak (99.87) wrote:

GV....I'll chew on it and send a mail over the weekend - this needs some serious referencing on my part - given its just my first pass thru the book - also - based on that I see a few possibilities -

The formation of an extended diagonal on a 5th - if that becomes the final call - is something I am currently unable to reconcile.

Yet the previous also now seems to have been a diagonal ( didn't look like an extension though) - but seemed to have resolved on a bullish pattern.

Love to hear about your thesis - I'll take a stabl also.

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#101) On March 13, 2009 at 11:58 PM, Ecomike (< 20) wrote:

Some have been asking about stop loss strategies. I have only just recently started using them, so I am no expert. I don't always use them, but that is just me. That has been changing, but I do not always use them, at least not yet. What I have done is picked stocks that I would buy and hold long term once the market, or at least the stock I picked had hit a THE BOTTOM.

I Started buying only stocks that I wanted to buy and hold.  As things turned out, I had not bought them  as cheaply as I originally thought, so I have turned more to day trading Why let a 20% gain disapear the next day?. BUT, I am still picking mostly stocks to day trade that I would want to hold long term. Therefore, I am willing to hold them a bit longer and take a short term buy and hold loss. If I set tight stops in this market I just end up making the brokers rich due to the market volatility, and some of the stocks I have been trading have gone up 100%, and back down 50% in one day.

So the trick is to buy at a market bottom, or time buying early in a strong rally day ( Like thursday ) with tight rising stops as the day progresses if I am not near the bottom when I buy. In other words my stop loss strategy varies with the stock and its volatility, and where the market is and where it is heading, and what % of my total capital is at risk. I have bought some penny stocks at like .04 held to .01 (75% loss), and sold weeks later at .16 for a very nice 400% profit. But I typically have invested at least 8 hours of research over 2-3 months in a stock (company) before buying it.

I have yet to play with ETFs or other similar investments. I also watch indicators like the BDI daily and oil and gas prices (Options) to help with determining when to play sector stocks. GV's help with EW analysis is just one more tool now to help avoid going long just before the suicide plays, LOL. I have no wish to commit suicide.

Anyway, in other words I have been doing my fundamentals home work and now am adding EW analysis to help avoid buying good stocks when the market is about drag everything into the mud, and vice-a-versa. No matter how cheap a stock looks like right now, the market, todays market can put on sale at even lower prices. 

I would say that how tight to set a stop loss should depend on the expected volatility of the market and the stock, and how far down a short term correction might be expected to go on a stock before it heads back up on the same day. So mine might be anywhere from 50% to 2%, 50% being on a stock like PNX which has seen recent highs and lows of $0.20 and $2.00, and 2% being a practical stop loss on a stock like IBM. I think some brokers also allow conditional trades based on market index values, which might make sense to use when EW shows a tight support or resistance level that might indicate a directional correction in the market trigger.  

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#102) On March 14, 2009 at 12:20 AM, herztical (28.27) wrote:

Eco,

Please tell me your not putting time and effort (let alone broker comission) into penny stocks?  I could be alone here, but I think they are a sure way to the poor house...9/10 go under and the otc / bb markets are very unregulated and have huge bid/ask spreads.  I rarely [never] look at a stock under $2...they are there for a reason. A casino would be a better option bc at least they are reglated and I did win $7 once playing penny slots (a 700% gain!) Just my thoughts.

Also, I see top players on CAPS rank them only bc they are quick way to gain points bc 1 trade can equal a huge jump or a huge loss and I wouldn't be surprised if top CAPS players spend $5 on a trade to make a market for their picks. Top players egos say it all.

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#103) On March 14, 2009 at 1:31 AM, MastiffFool (< 20) wrote:

adventure818,

There is a trader over on the forums at Elite Trader that has a good track record of using a 2 to 1 reward/risk ratio. This meaning that if he bought a stock at $5, he might put a stop-loss of $1 if he felt that he was going to close the trade at $7, which would be a profit of $2. But keep in mind that this guy is a daytrader and might be holding his position for only a matter of minutes.

Dan

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#104) On March 14, 2009 at 1:36 AM, Ecomike (< 20) wrote:

herztical,

 Prior to the stock market melt down I probably would not have bought penny stocks, but many stocks that were previously selling for 5 to $60 or more are currently selling for less, some much less tha $1. One that I want to own long term is RAME. The insiders were buying last year all the way to December as the stock dropped 95%. It got down to something like .25 the day we hit .666. It is already up to about .60. It has a P/E of about 1-2, and has only lost money last quarter due to oil and gas asset non-cash, unrealised losses. I also think AVR will survive and come back (third largest ethanol producer, but hurt when Verasun went belly up due to corn hedging futures losses. I made $200 on a $200 purchase this week on PNX buying at .29 selling at .49 in only 24 hours. 

 I can buy 1000 shares for $8, or 3000 shares for $18. I bought 3000 shares of SIRI a few weeks ago in the closing minutes on Friday at .08, sold it Tuesday at the open for $0.16, and made about $230 on the trade. I caught the news in the last minutes that a bidding war (2 suiters) to save the company from bancruptcy was under way.  SIRI hit .20 today. I had been watching SIRI for months. I can make a lot more money right now trading these stocks right now than I could ever make trading or holding IBM.

The trick as with any stock is to buy at the right time and sell at the right time. Also note that I have been buying $0.20 stocks that have book values of $10 and $20, with one time asset right down losses that combined with this market have sent less well known stocks selling for 1 to 5% of book value right now (Like AVR, RAME, PNX and others). There are some interesting biotechs that have dropped from $10-20/share down to $02 to .08/share. A little bad news these days and a small biotech goes from $20 to 0.02 cents REAL fast. Then later rallys up several 100% as it's assets (Cash on hand) are 10 or 20.... times the stock price..  I already made money on a few of them too.

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#105) On March 14, 2009 at 1:58 AM, PrestonCheek (31.67) wrote:

Eco, I'm going to have to agree with Herz here, I would be very careful investing to much into those stocks. Only you know your tolerance and discipline, I have talked to a lot of people that quit trading all together because they thought penny stocks were the only way to make big money and they always seemed to lose.

In any case good luck.

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#106) On March 14, 2009 at 3:10 AM, herztical (28.27) wrote:

yeah eco, each to their own; I guess it depends how much capital your playing with and your risk tolerance. Personally, I feel more comfortable w/ 9k in IBM (or calls for a spec to use less capital) vs $90 in penny stocks. Agree though, entry point is key in any position.  Good luck

  

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#107) On March 14, 2009 at 8:19 AM, NewHampshireMan (87.70) wrote:

Hertical / Preston,

I am interested in what your strategy would be if you were working with a smaller amount of capital for short term trades like I am( $3,000)...basically how many pieces to break the pie up into at one time  in quality stocks without getting killed in broker fees.  I have all the long term funds locked up for my kids so this is the money I plan on continually building up for the short term stuff to become the next GV...ha, ha. 

 Also, I am just catching up on some of the blogs and noticed people asking about trading sites. I have several I use, one of which includes sogotrade.com where trades are only $3 and you get the normal free trades etc( feel free to use my referral code 339854..I could use the charity)

Thanks for any advice.

 

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#108) On March 14, 2009 at 1:40 PM, Ecomike (< 20) wrote:

One key point to keep in mind is that some penny stocks have very little down side risk left once they bottom ( Except bankruptcy, but that is a risk with many non penny stocks these days too ). CURRENTLY, Stocks selling for large multiples of book value, and high P/E's have huge down side risk left if any bad news comes out. Just look at Warren Buffets mistakes buying into GE and Connoco Philips recently just before the stocks took huge losses. Some penny stocks are potential takeover candidates, and thus have substantial up side potential. NCX is one that was taken over just as it was headed for penny stock status on fears of debt default that were way over stated. Too much herd fear clobbered the stock down to nearly $1, just before the arabs bought it, and took it private for $6/share. I made my largest gain this year on NCX in just 2 weeks, but I waited 5 months to buy it (this mouse was very patient).  SIRI has already gone back up from .02 to .20 in the last 4 weeks, and looks to be heading higher long term, and looks like it has the suiters now to bail it out of its current short term debt problems. They already bailed SIRI out of its debt problems for this year by taking a stake in the company a day before it was expected to file for bankruptcy. 

I think Exxon is over priced right now. I base that on my experience with the last oil bubble blow up in the early 80's that I lived through. Same for Microsoft. I also think GE has farther to fall before it truely bottoms. Companies like Autozone that I think will do real well financialy are already grossly overpriced at P/Es of 90/1. I do not have more than 10% of my cash in penny stocks at any one time (stocks under $1.00), but I have made 65% of my profits with that 10% in the last 3 months, and about 60% of my losses were in stocks priced over $3.00.   

 

Heads up: Here is an article everyone here needs to read!

http://www.frontlinethoughts.com/gateway.asp

 See "The Swiss Start Their Engines" dated March 13, 2009

See the part on the Japanese

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#109) On March 14, 2009 at 4:33 PM, Tutom (< 20) wrote:

Yes, Econmike, John Mauldin's newsletter is a must read every week. Great story this week. I lived in Japan since 1987 and have watched as the economy slowly continued to deteriorate from 1990. The Japanese have a saying that goes, "Put a lid over the stinking pot." They did and look where it got them. I'm afraid it will take a total train wreck there before any changes are made there. Too late...

John Mauldin often recommends George Friedman's Strafor newsletter. In Friedman's new book, The Next 100 Years, he claims that Japan could once again be forced to look beyond its shores to secure natural resources and this will again lead to comfrontations and perhaps even war. A good book for the Spring Break when you put down EW Principle.

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#110) On March 14, 2009 at 5:47 PM, frinky11 (28.44) wrote:

Hooray, the book has arrived!

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#111) On March 14, 2009 at 9:06 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

#97 point312 -

Hey Jamie! That's a great shirt man. Good luck with your fight. We all are rooting for you. Jamie was featured in who we are (part 1) by the way where he mentioned that he's a fighter. So don't ever try to mess with the guy. Also, we might need him one day to kick some butts around here when I ran out of Zen. :) So Jamie, you're a great asset buddy. Give us some good news when you come back. 

Bait & Eco - I am glad you found an old buddy of you here again. This is another advantage of telling us who are you? We want to put faces behind these IDs so we can know each other more and more.

Frinky #8 #110 - Congrats for the book, one step further in the right direction. For oil charts - Comment  66 here.  Flame! I thought you would step in to help frinky with his question ;) And Frinky which song do you think can be our trademark song. #55 You don't need to work on it now but just give us your thoughts. Anybody have requests, frinky offered you a chance of a lifetime.

#39 bigafro – the further the VIX goes up, the bigger 5 will be not the other way around. It means that the market is afraid and more decline to come until some point where it goes too high more than it should and this is where we should buy because we buy despair (VIX is high and overbought) while selling hope (VIX is down and oversold). Does this make sense?

Mary – thanks for your last post which I Rec. You might want to add how to add a tube which you outlined somewhere in my blog back to someone else. Also, you can add how to add a photo to a blog or a comment. King, wanted to know. You can add it as a comment in your blog and then link to it when someone asks for it. How about that? And keep your comments coming no matter what others think of them. # 41 We can post or talk about whatever we like.

Adventurer818 #65 – I answered this question before. Comment 159. At least this is what I do, which is not for everyone. Just sharing.

Bio #67 –
although it matches some of my longs’ entry points, it’s more important because this is where wave 1 (A) ended and when wave (4) bring us down, by the rules of Elliott wave (4) never enter wave (1) space. If it does so the count must revised to a different thing. This is why I put the blue line

Russ –
for your question #68 Why are you asking?  

Aye # 77 - I hope you are getting this one right with no regret in the future.

Both # 81-
I hope my coming chart will help explain my understanding of where we are now. They are not clear-cut but I am narrowing options. More work to be done. By the way, what Rubicon is?

Burt #89 –
This gap you’re talking about can take us not only to the bottom but to break it as well. So you sure could be right if wave 5 plays out. Thanks for the thought.

All of you - If I missed your question or you expect a comment from me, please post again

For the Rec. thing; forget about my request! :) After I found you guys are recommending me after I said don't (talk about following me), I gave up and one of my many identities named GoodVibe4Ever had to recommend also. Thank you all! .

Hope you're enjoying your weekend and having all the fun that you all greatly deseve.

GoodVibe

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#112) On March 14, 2009 at 9:23 PM, point312 (< 20) wrote:

came across this read what does everyone think???

 

http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/update-on-the-two-competing-sp500-elliott-wave-interpretations/

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#113) On March 14, 2009 at 9:35 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

The oath of GoodVibe community:

"On my honor, I will never betray my badge, my integrity, my character, or the public trust. I will always have the courage to hold myself and others accountable for our actions. I will always uphold the constitution, my community, and the people I serve."

GoodVibe

 

 

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#114) On March 14, 2009 at 9:38 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Good find Jamie #112. I thought you're fighting now. What happened? Flat tire or got cold feet. :)

Please guys, If you find any analysis about Elliott or anything that you believe can add to us, feel free to bring it even if it goes against my work.

GoodVibe

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#115) On March 15, 2009 at 1:50 AM, BaitBoyinOK (< 20) wrote:

Good news on this front. If you've read 'who are you,' especially my second post, then you know my frustrations on trading due to job, network access, and trading limitations. I finally heard from my on-line broker today and come Tuesday evening will have access to many more trading tools than I had available with the basic account. Will have many charting tools to work with there, also. That will make a HUGE difference in my game plans for trading. Will finally be able to plug in trailing stop losses on the way up, and be able to play the shorting on the way down with the inverse option. While I may a cast iron stomach and brass brains, it still makes it difficult to concentrate given limited ammunition. Kind of like - 'go to war,man, but you can only shoot during night time hours; but your adversary gets to shoot all day.'

 To get away from this blog and digest what I've read, it is calming to go out on the front porch and watch our 'resident' doe and yearling feeding calmly by moonlight across the yard not a hundred feet away; catch a movement out of the corner of my eye, and here's Mr. Cottontail calmy hopping toward me about twenty feet away.

 ECOMIKE - eery how your investing and mine are similar; I plowed in everything I could from the last week of November until three weeks ago, maxing out Roth IRA for wife and self and putting whole paycheck into gummint version of 401K for 7 checks straight. However, instead of sitting on dry powder and waiting to fire, I bought a wide array of stocks looking to to the 'buy and hold' for long term strategy, knowing it would eventually come back up. I also bought stocks that were way undervalued, low or no debt, but still got hammered. I did take a couple of chances on a couple of the same ones you did, and still paying for it. However, I did run across this string of blogs about 3-4 weeks ago and follow it closely. Enlightened me very much, thanks to you, Mr. GV! Staying tuned for tomorrow's updates.

 GV - (see last sentence above.) For theme songs, a couple come to mind - Queen's 'We are the champions,' or maybe even more salient given the diverse personalities here and diverse requirements/tolerances to 'dance to the music' - Sly and the Family Stone's - 'Dance to the music.'

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#116) On March 15, 2009 at 5:09 AM, Mary953 (78.91) wrote:

GoodVibe - 

Tell King that I will write a procedure blog on how to do youtube videos just for him.  I would do one for pictures also, but I haven't had any luck getting them to embed yet.  How is that done?   Anyone?

The Rubicon was the name of a river outside of Rome during the days of the Roman Empire.  At that time, Rome was governed by a Senate (elected) and led by three senators - the triumverate.  One of the triumverate was always given the task of leading the army.  If he was a good leader, the army would be faithful in following him.  Therefore, it was unlawful - in fact it was Treason - to cross the Rubicon river leading the army into Rome because of the threat it would pose to every other ambitious person. :)  Eventually, one man did cross the Rubicon, Julius Caesar.  It was his attempt to become the single ruler of Rome.  (Oh, look, it's the Ides of March already!)

To "Cross the Rubicon"  is to take an action that cannot be undone, to burn your bridges behind you.  If you take a step that is this rash, you do not care about the consequences, you are going to do whatever task you have chosen.  The day that John Adams (second President) signed the Declaration of Independence, he remarked, "I have crossed the Rubicon.  Let the bridge be burned behind me, come what may."

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#117) On March 15, 2009 at 11:16 AM, columbia1 wrote:

Mary- read my comment #37. Try it and let me know if it did not work and I will try to explain it in a different way!

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#118) On March 15, 2009 at 11:18 AM, columbia1 wrote:

Mary- also read #40

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#119) On March 15, 2009 at 11:37 AM, BaitBoyinOK (< 20) wrote:

Mary - One other way to view this and see the code - find a post # with an imbedded picture, go to 'view' in the menu bar, click 'source' or 'view source.' When the source code window pops up it would be helpful at this point to go to 'format' in the menu bar, then click 'word wrap' to make viewing easier. Then, go to 'edit' in the menu bar of the source code window and click 'find' and type '#31' (this is the post with the pic of the ewe and lamb that Columbia1 posted,) then click 'find.' When it zips down to that post, #31 will be highlighted, and about 4 lines down you can see the code used to imbed the pic. As you will see, the greater than and less than signs are reversed from what Columbia posted in #37. If he had not reversed them in #37 it would have tried to imbed a picture and then showed a broken picture link. Hope that helps.

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#120) On March 15, 2009 at 12:04 PM, point312 (< 20) wrote:

GV no cold feet for me that will never happen...Iam preparing for another one in the future, i have to go to Vegas a few times a week when iam getting ready for an up coming fight.I got back and was reading other peoples charts ideas and opinions and came across that one seemed interesting.

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#121) On March 15, 2009 at 12:12 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Mary - Do you have a guess what I decided yesterday to title my next blog?

"Ides of March!

Funny, right? And check which song I chose in comment 175 while we were making the bottom on March 9? And here I get the Rubicon comment, my question, and your answer while I was trying to answer a different question through the charts! Here I tell you:

"We will cross the Rubicon.  Let the bridge be burned behind us, come what may."

For the photo thing, I explained this in comment #29 to Russ of how he can post charts, which in nature are photos. It's different when you post a chart in a post than in a comment. In a comment you can use HTML or link but in the post you can only use link in a special format.

img src="your URL here"
And put everything between < >

You don't need to have flickr or any photo sharing site to post photos. If there's a photo online already posted, you can use its URL instead of the one you get from your own photos in flickr. Just be careful with the large size of a photo or the photo will jump outside the thread.

I hope this will help.

GoodVibe

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#122) On March 15, 2009 at 12:23 PM, columbia1 wrote:

Here is a more detailed version to post pics from a blog I posted a couple months ago

http://msncaps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=110110&t=02001805757982007932

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#123) On March 15, 2009 at 1:06 PM, herztical (28.27) wrote:

Imbedding images: 

Also and easy way to find the url of a pic you want to imbed: Simply right click the picture (if online) and then select properties. It will show the exact url and dimensions of the pic. 

When you imbed you can also change the dimensions of the pic to fit the post if it's too big. ex.

Note: I have to reverse the outter arrows here otherwise this post will read it as code:

>img src="url of pic here" width = "100" height = "50" border="0"<</p>

to resize (in this case by 50%):

>img src"url of pic here" width = "50" height = "25" border = "0"<</p>

 ~Be sure to keep the dimensions the same otherwise image will be stretched or skewed. 

You can also link the pic to something by putting the image between a (link) tags

ex. (remember to reverse arrows when actually doing it)

>a href="insertlinkhere"<>img src"url_of_pic_here" width = "50" height = "25" border = "0"<>/a<</p>

A neat trick in order not to lose the blog is to open the link in a new browser, so add in:  target="_blank" in the a tag

ex.

>a target="_blank" href="insertlinkhere"<>img src"url_of_pic_here" width = "50" height = "25" border = "0"<>/a<</p>

 

Hope this helps

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#124) On March 15, 2009 at 1:10 PM, oversea (< 20) wrote:

On crossing the Rubicon, Gaius Julius Caesar scratched his bald head and said:

"Alea iacta est"

i.e. The die is cast.

I know, I was just one of his Celtic auxiliaries, holding the legion's eagle for him and I touched my balls. LOL 

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#125) On March 15, 2009 at 1:20 PM, Ecomike (< 20) wrote:

"Queen's 'We are the champions' ", is what we always played and danced to, at the bowling alley when we, as usual won the championship, 1st place trophy. That was 30 years ago, still love that tune!

 

GV,
I finally got a handle on one topic in the EW book that  had been bothering me.  That is how a five wave can turn into a 9  wave pattern, and how to label the count, before ABC wave.

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#126) On March 15, 2009 at 1:21 PM, innerflame (< 20) wrote:

Hello from sunny 60 degrees! MA. Although I'm working on never defending...

GV- I saw right below Frinky's#8 post- that he found the oil chart ( #9 post) so I didn't say anything- but I did point the charts out to Mazzart earlier when he had an oil question. I feel like such a beginner I hesitate to write anything.

What I wanted to add about FEAR were the four fears that Mark Douglas talks about in his book- The Disciplined Trader.

1.Missing out 2. Losing money 3. Leaving money on the table and 4. Being wrong. I've been facing every one of these and it's amazing how deep and mixed with emotions these are. The first three will cause people to react with panic- sell off too soon- buy too soon, sell too late.

That is why is it SO important to cultivate patience (Logic Wins - Impulse kills) and a PLAN (all in GV's rules ). Some of our deepest emotional impulses are so reactionary we don't even know we're doing it- like people who strike out in anger.

The #4 fear- Being wrong- is a life long lesson to overcome what many of us were raised with for parenting styles ( The shame and blame method- hopefully becoming less popular as 'humanity matures'- is that an oxymoron- will humanity mature?)

I'm taking all the difficulties I've had with learning to trade as perfect life lessons. I like this because I only hold myself accountable for what I learn and what I gain. 

Seems I got on a bit of a ramble. I'm waiting patiently to see what the thoughts are for market for this next week.  It's interesting how so many are shouting buy buy right now..

Burning bright- Flame

 

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#127) On March 15, 2009 at 2:04 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

GV~ I know I have a lot to learn before i'm even close to your understanding of TA, but I'm just wondering how long of a road I have...

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#128) On March 15, 2009 at 2:50 PM, Ecomike (< 20) wrote:

GV,

 

Does Turn A Round Tuesday ever work in the other direction? In other words if Monday is up again or flat, does TART take us down in a turn around Tuesday fashion? Is that to be expected on TAR Tuesday when preceded by 6 days up in a row? 

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#129) On March 15, 2009 at 4:17 PM, kstarich (30.22) wrote:

Innerflame

I can relate to where you are at.  I am new to this as well and I think it takes awhile to get the rythem of swing trading.  I am really trying to be patient and listen to the pros here.

It was good to get my feet wet last couple of weeks.  I am up 20% in my IRA and about 8% in my regular account, which is interesting because I am much more detached from the IRA account as opposed to my general account and look how much better the IRA did.  Just goes to show you what fear really does!

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#130) On March 15, 2009 at 5:01 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

~up 30% in 3 weeks with Etrade and up 10% on my 401k.... To have my first winning Etrade trade alone would be a sucess, but 30% for me is like winning the Lotery...lol

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#131) On March 15, 2009 at 5:24 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

Oh, BTW I know Stops and Limits have been a subject recently. I placed a stop on SSO at 17.79 to lock in the gains. This is not advice, just what I did. I'm not going SDS until wave C is completed. I may go long SSO again if wave B has some distance in it, but I'll play it by eye.

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#132) On March 15, 2009 at 5:25 PM, MastiffFool (< 20) wrote:

kstarich ,

I too know about the problem of getting in the rhythm of swing trading. I have been mostly a day trader since October for fear of carrying over my trades into the next day. Staying in cash most of the time has been my safety net. As a result of this mindset, I missed out on a lot of the move up in the S&P last week.

I am determined to become more disciplined in the future and not be so reactive to every little twitch that the market makes!

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#133) On March 15, 2009 at 6:03 PM, Matilda47 (< 20) wrote:

I have been reading this blog for a few days, please help me.  What can we expect for next week. I am really confused.  Any help would be appreciated.

 

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#134) On March 15, 2009 at 6:06 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Thanks guys for all your help with my guidelines' request especially Susan, Marie (Adventure818), and Preston.

What do you think of the following. Any more ideas? Any room for improvement? herzt - Can I make them in red instead of black? You're the web master here.

For your questions, once I finish from my charts and post, I'll answer them all. Thanks.

Community guidelines:

1. Refrain from asking me for a personalized strategy, specific stock advice or a chart. I am here to show you the way not to walk the way for you. Start learning, do your homework; and consult with your investing advisor before making any decisions. All the work I present here is for educational reasons and should not be constituted as advice to buy or sell anything. I only share what, when and how I’m trading with hopes that sharing the process adds to you. Trading and self-directed investing is not for everyone. Never trade with money you cannot afford to lose.

2. I am a day, swing, and position trader by profession. Read my trading rules. I use Technical analysis to time my trades. Long-term investors can use most of the tools I use but will not get all the benefits as short-term investors and traders. Buy and hold forever investors will gain almost nothing from this blog but the entertainment.

3. Believe but question. Listen but speak. Trust but verify. We offer what worked for us but no one here can guarantee it will work for you the same way or at all. Test before you jump.

4. Everyone is welcome! Diversity strengthens our community and adds more value to our thinking and decisions.

5. The level of our tolerance to those who disagree with us will prove the level of our convictions. Everyone is entitled to believe and express their opinions in any form or shape including here even if they're not justified. Never respond to unfounded, irrational or unjust comments. Never ever defend me, the community we're building, or the work we do. It’s futile. Add, build, make a positive difference, or keep your peace. If you must express a grievance, please directly address whoever offended you in their blog not here. Keep this blog a place for positive and productive communication. My hope those who disagree with us treat us in the same way we treat them.

6. Recs, comments, and new members in our community are my guide to know if I am doing a good job and adding some value to you. That said; please don't rec., comment, or join unless you were getting some value from our blogs. This is not a beauty contest. Let me move on to put my energy somewhere else where I believe it's needed. Until then, Recs. are good for your karma. Comments, questions, or contributions; however, are obligations.

7. Everyone is encouraged to answer questions and provide links to questions that I may have answered in the past or they feel the confidence and knowledge to do so on their own. Please step in and either copy and paste my answer or put it in your own words. Just make sure before you comment to always explain your reasons and rationale, and provide supporting data when possible. Emotional comments and opinions are not welcomed.

8. If I missed your question, please ask again. I’ll try to answer as many questions as I can but don’t expect an immediate response. Come back later for the answer in the same blog you posted. If you would like to email me personally, this is the place (goodvibe07 -at- yahoo)    

9. Thanks for your thankful comments. I read them all and they cheer my heart but I'll not reply to them to save some time. That said, keep them coming!

                            Stay positive. Winning begins within.

                                        GoodVibe Community

"On my honor, I will never betray my integrity, my character, or the public trust. I will always have the courage to hold myself and others accountable for our actions. I will always uphold my community, and the people I serve."

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#135) On March 15, 2009 at 7:40 PM, columbia1 wrote:

GV- If you could, try Herzt. trick of creating a link that opens a new window for your charts. It would save a lot of time reloading the CAPS page after checking each chart ie;

"A neat trick in order not to lose the blog is to open the link in a new browser, so add in:  target="_blank" in the a tag

ex.

>a target="_blank" href="insertlinkhere"<>img src"url_of_pic_here" width = "50" height = "25" border = "0"<>/a<</p>

Thank-you again Herzt. for your talents on technicals of the web!!!

 

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#136) On March 15, 2009 at 9:48 PM, TigerPack1 (86.24) wrote:

Ecomike has made some excellent points and arguments in this message thread about some small and micro-cap stocks being the most "undervalued" investments currently.

I think we are likely seeing the cheapest valuations and pricing for small cap stocks since at least 1982.  I am finding myself more and more attracted to companies with market caps under $500 million, and some even under $100 million.

As an example, the tough times in real estate sales and related furniture retailing has decimated the furniture industry and Wall Street's valuation of the sector.  I figure you could buy the entire U.S. furniture industry for less than $1 billion currently!!! 

My favorite "small" cap stock I own a big chunk of is La-Z-Boy.  It is perhaps the most recognizable furniture brand-name out there, with a relatively conservative balance sheet that has fallen from $10 a share 6 months ago, to under $1 per share presently.  [It doubled in price this past week vs. a 10% rise in the market averages, from a 53 cent low trade on Monday.]

With its market cap around $50 million at $1, despite having a tangible book value in the $300 million range ($6 per share) and a "liquidation" going-out-of-business value of about $150 million ($3 per share), Wall Street is pricing this business as if we will never again see sales and product pricing levels near those of LATE-2008, which were considerably weaker than the peak 2006 level ALREADY.  LZB is not alone; the entire industry is now priced as if bankruptcy is assured in late-2009.

However, insiders have been buying LZB the past two weeks in droves according to SEC filings, the first major buys in a good two years.

Looking forward, if LZB remains one of just a handful of survivors in the furniture business, they will have incredible pricing power and much better sales as the number of competing stores dwindles for consumers.  Any significant uptick in retail sales and confidence should mean a quick return to profitability and considerably higher Wall Street valuations for the business.

I personally believe American consumers will want new furniture at some point in the future.  La-Z-Boy should be one of the survivors as debt levels are relatively low, cash flows are still coming in the door, and consumer brand loyalty for this business drive much of their sales.  If they are one of the suvivors, future profitablity could be incredibly high as few other choices to buy furniture will be around when sales pick-up.

This stock represents one of many examples I could give of the incredible undevaluation of smaller companies, and the effects of low levels of confidence and liquidity in the stock market.

The good news is liquidity levels and confidence can change on a dime, and perhaps last week marked the bottom in expectations and fear about the future, especially on Wall Street.  I have never seen such an extreme in fear and paranoid behavior by investors in my 25 years of trading and investing.  The odds clearly favor increasing confidence, liquidity and stock price levels generally for months to come.  If reason, logic, rational thought and cyclically normal consumer behavior return, the early 2009 low may go down as the most historic in our investment lifetimes.

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#137) On March 15, 2009 at 10:07 PM, BaitBoyinOK (< 20) wrote:

One more choice for a theme song - Frank Sin tra's ' That's Life.' Fits so well for a number of different personalities, but fits all probably at least once. I'd post a link to the lyrics but it has kept blowing out my post and my connection to the internet, not unusual of late...

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#138) On March 15, 2009 at 11:02 PM, herztical (28.27) wrote:

GV,

The text color or the pic/logo?  You can do either (pic would require some photoshop) But changing text color is easy:

Too easy that is!

Since we don't have access to fools css (style sheets), simple >font< tag can be used instead:

>FONT COLOR="ff0000"/font<</p>

Just replace the ff0000 with the hex color of your choice or actual color such as "red".  Hex colors can be found here:

http://www.december.com/html/spec/color.html

Now everyone please don't turn the blog into a rainbow or use annoying things like this! LOL

 

 

 

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#139) On March 15, 2009 at 11:06 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Food for the thoughts - Feedback is requested from all:

For those who understand the waves, what do you think?
For those who are not there yet, what don't you get?

There are two different counts, which I narrowed from many. They point to down week but from two different level with different upside risk that's large in nature. One is in black and the other in red.

You see, I always make sure to present a full case of any analysis I do even if some of you will not understand it. This time I have hard time to present one chart and tell you next week direction is down. I have to give you more charts as body of evidence but I am running little bit late for all of them and I wanna review more individual charts. So, look to this chart and tell me what you don't get, and I'll know what more charts to post. I hope this helped.

S&P 30D

Enlarge

GoodVibe

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#140) On March 15, 2009 at 11:09 PM, frinky11 (28.44) wrote:

BaitBoy, I love that song!  Might take me a while to work it up, but I think "That's Life" is perfect. 

Whew, there are an awful lot of definitions, rules, guidelines, etc!   I really like how the Fibonacci sequence ties in... "Golden" ratio (phi)...  perfection.

I found a "study guide" PDF  ("The Eleven Elliott Wave Patterns") that I think will be a big help to me in memorizing all those forms and rules...  I don't think I should post it here, because of possible copyright issues, but shoot me an email if you would like a copy. frinky11 (at) gmail

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#141) On March 15, 2009 at 11:14 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Herzt - I don't get it!

Please copy the guidelines above, put them in your code where they will be in red, and email them to me if you don't mind. We don't want people to play with this stuff in here or it will be a children book. :) and that was annoying.

GoodVibe

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#142) On March 15, 2009 at 11:42 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

GV~

I'm so glad you posted what you did. I think this is the grey area that most people diffine TA as wrong. We will have times where we don't know and must adapt to what the market is doing to conclude a "swing". We know from the bigger picture that this is a top to wave 4, but we don't know exactly how much "up" power there is.

I took the weekend to ponder our situation just as you have. I didn't have a stop until I wanted to difine my "swing" potition further.

As you once said the more times a support or resistance line is tested the more chance of breaking that line. Friday was nothing more than a constant test of the support line meaning that it has a higher probability of being broken. I was planning on riding to C, but I see the other count that you proposed as well and will not risk being wrong on the other count even though I think they may happen as well.

I put a stop on Fridays start on SSO to see if wave 1(A) has more leg to it then sell on the break then or protect my gains. I see the your counts and both options before and see that (tight) stop limit is the correct thing to do. If wave 1(A) plays out I still win or my stop is called. Either way, I think I win.

You asked for an openion so that is mine.

~happy hunting~

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#143) On March 16, 2009 at 12:02 AM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

~GV,

One more thing.. I'm not sure on the short position yet either. (B) or (C) was concluded is another definition on how we look at it. I think if we fall from the current high we will need to define weather B has went to far so that the full 3 corrective waves were fufilled to go short.

Can't wait for this week. I plan to learn a ton!

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#144) On March 16, 2009 at 12:06 AM, herztical (28.27) wrote:

...tiger your starting to sound like Cramer!  Are there bargains out there, sure...but everyone should tred carefully and make sure you know those balance sheets inside and out! C was a good trade last week, but I'm not touching that either. 

Also, I did a little recon on LZB:

Insider trading:

03/06/09 BACON MARK S Purchase13,00 $0.62 $8,021.00

3/05/09 HEHL DAVID K Purchase20,000 $0.58 $11,532.00

3/04/09 RICCIO LOUIS MICHAEL JR Purchase 5,000 $0.8 1 $4,061.00

2/23/09 KINCAID STEVEN M Purchase10,000 $1.11 $11,100.00

I wouldn't call those amounts "in droves" Those dollar amounts are cheaper then a used car! The stock "doubled" bc of short covering.

Directly from last 10/k 

"Although we tested the valuation of our Retail segment’s goodwill during the second quarter, the major decline in the stock market and the freezing of money in the capital markets resulted in an increase in our weighted average cost of capital from 11% at the end of the second quarter of fiscal 2009 to 16% at the end of the third quarter of fiscal 2009. This increase in the weighted average cost of capital had the effect of reducing our fair value estimates and resulted in significant write-downs in our intangible assets"

That's a 5% increase in cost of capital in tough times when your gross margin is only 24%. 16% cost of capital shows the company is rated junk and this isn't going away any time soon.

..and btw, what type of furniture company has level 2 assets?

As for me, I'll wait and see earnings before touching this one! LZB has only been profitable 2 of the last 5 years.  If you can't make money with that type of housing /credit boom, I'm not sure you'll ever be able to. Remember everyone, markets don't lie, people do. I'm not saying that Tiger is lying, I'm saying the stock is in the basement for a reason.

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#145) On March 16, 2009 at 12:08 AM, BaitBoyinOK (< 20) wrote:

Given my current trading limitations I must just sit tight and hang on for dear life. However.com, that is not an unusual position for me. My ability to trade more effectively will not occur before Tuesday evening about 7PM Central, I can only hope that it holds 'high enough' to allow me to take some change and work the down side. Looking forward to it. I am SO tired of dealing with trees, limbs, vines, etc. from the ice storm of 8 Dec 07 - got the last of it out to the street today! Well, at least until I take down the last half-dozen trees destroyed behindthe barn, but they're out of sight and out of mind for a while. As it is, we stand at about 425-450  we have taken out since the ice storm.

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#146) On March 16, 2009 at 12:34 AM, herztical (28.27) wrote:

GV,

I don't have your e-mail, but you can just copy paste from this post and that should work too.  But just like the EW, I will get you to learn this (simply change the direction of the arrows when doing this for the post) and put your text between the font tags.:

 >font color = "red"<      Insert all your text here. blah, blah, blah.    >/font<   

 

Community guidelines:

1. Refrain from asking me for a personalized strategy, specific stock advice or a chart. I am here to show you the way not to walk the way for you. Start learning, do your homework; and consult with your investing advisor before making any decisions. All the work I present here is for educational reasons and should not be constituted as advice to buy or sell anything. I only share what, when and how I’m trading with hopes that sharing the process adds to you. Trading and self-directed investing is not for everyone. Never trade with money you cannot afford to lose.

2. I am a day, swing, and position trader by profession. Read my trading rules. I use Technical analysis to time my trades. Long-term investors can use most of the tools I use but will not get all the benefits as short-term investors and traders. Buy and hold forever investors will gain almost nothing from this blog but the entertainment.

3. Believe but question. Listen but speak. Trust but verify. We offer what worked for us but no one here can guarantee it will work for you the same way or at all. Test before you jump.

4. Everyone is welcome! Diversity strengthens our community and adds more value to our thinking and decisions.

5. The level of our tolerance to those who disagree with us will prove the level of our convictions. Everyone is entitled to believe and express their opinions in any form or shape including here even if they're not justified. Never respond to unfounded, irrational or unjust comments. Never ever defend me, the community we're building, or the work we do. It’s futile. Add, build, make a positive difference, or keep your peace. If you must express a grievance, please directly address whoever offended you in their blog not here. Keep this blog a place for positive and productive communication. My hope those who disagree with us treat us in the same way we treat them.

6. Recs, comments, and new members in our community are my guide to know if I am doing a good job and adding some value to you. That said; please don't rec., comment, or join unless you were getting some value from our blogs. This is not a beauty contest. Let me move on to put my energy somewhere else where I believe it's needed. Until then, Recs. are good for your karma. Comments, questions, or contributions; however, are obligations.

7. Everyone is encouraged to answer questions and provide links to questions that I may have answered in the past or they feel the confidence and knowledge to do so on their own. Please step in and either copy and paste my answer or put it in your own words. Just make sure before you comment to always explain your reasons and rationale, and provide supporting data when possible. Emotional comments and opinions are not welcomed.

8. If I missed your question, please ask again. I’ll try to answer as many questions as I can but don’t expect an immediate response. Come back later for the answer in the same blog you posted. If you would like to email me personally, this is the place (goodvibe07 -at- yahoo)    

9. Thanks for your thankful comments. I read them all and they cheer my heart but I'll not reply to them to save some time. That said, keep them coming!

                            Stay positive. Winning begins within.

 

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#147) On March 16, 2009 at 12:43 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Russ - I made up my mind about the short position to hedge for my longs which I will keep until I know where we exactly stands. Next week will be one for the history books.

Thanks herzt for holding TigerPack to the fire! :) Tiger is always bullish and I mean always and this why we always had a fight. No matter what I try, he has a way to spin it off the bullish side! And he has this love with LZB. So finally he found someone who can return his P/E stuff at him. You guys enjoy it. And herzt, did you get my code?

Bait - You better get your Internet access fixed man before I call the trading police on you!

Frinky - email it to me. Let me see what do you have.

Comment #126 must read by everyone. Thanks flame!

Eco - Turn around Tuesday can go either way. It reverses Monday's action whatever that is. 8 out of 10 times. Count and you will see.

I'll answer the rest later. Have a good night everybody.

GoodVibe

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#148) On March 16, 2009 at 12:45 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Herzt -

So you didn't read the guidelines!!!! ;(

goodvibe07 -at- yahoo

Thanks! I get it now!

GoodVibe

 

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#149) On March 16, 2009 at 12:48 AM, herztical (28.27) wrote:

...ok Duh, I just saw your e-mail in the rules that I copied....will fwd tmrw if you don't figure it out tonight. Everyone, have a good night and profitable day tommorow

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#150) On March 16, 2009 at 12:54 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Actually, it's not working. I want to sleep first to get that complicated stuff of yours right. :)

GoodVibe

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#151) On March 16, 2009 at 1:02 AM, herztical (28.27) wrote:

Gv,

The real question is did you get my code in this actual post? 

 

 

Anyone figure it out yet? 

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#152) On March 16, 2009 at 1:06 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

< blah, blah, blah - I can't sleep while I want to learn something :)

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#153) On March 16, 2009 at 1:09 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

blah, blah, blah - I can't sleep while I want to learn something :) This one even better

GoodVibe

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#154) On March 16, 2009 at 1:13 AM, beyondanonda (27.00) wrote:

GV,

Since I'm relatively new to EW and TA in general this formation is new to me, and my confidence in knowing what is likely to happen is not very high.  The upward sloping wedge that seems to be lacking a lot of conviction would seem to be bearish.  It is of such short duration however that it may not be reliable.  It appears momentum is slipping but the MACD and RSI are all pretty nondescript on Friday, a quick look at the slow D has me leaning bearish with 2 declining peaks while prices are rising.

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#155) On March 16, 2009 at 1:15 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Now I can go to sleep. Peaceful night and a good day to you all

GoodVibe

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#156) On March 16, 2009 at 1:18 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

I agree beyond. Many indicators are bearish but after long oversold condition, reversal can be mean and take us further before correction which puts early shorts in a bad position if they don't have long positions. So, be careful not to lean too hard on the bears' side. Best

GoodVibe

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#157) On March 16, 2009 at 1:39 AM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

We all have red headlines now.... hummmm...

 I only came back to comment that for the first time I have a 50% positionon up or down...... My calm in this time is a huge part of my progressions I think. At the end over every trade i've done so far, I was biase to a dirction... I think this is one of the most valube lessons in your teachings is to not belong to any side. I feel so great where I am with my stop ..... fall or rise.... i'm impartial.... great feeling!!

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#158) On March 16, 2009 at 2:35 AM, herztical (28.27) wrote:

 

GV,

You are a smart cookie...I can't figure out how you changed the CSS color to red for the headline tags, at least for ie (firefox looks normal). 

I can't find it anywhere in the code  and I have to get some sleep!  I will try to close it though.  See everyone tommorow (for real this time)

 

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#159) On March 16, 2009 at 2:39 AM, herztical (28.27) wrote:

hah got it to stop

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#160) On March 16, 2009 at 4:35 AM, bothisellhigher (< 20) wrote:

Hi GV...

 The Rubicon...a smallish river in northern Italy.  At the Rubicon...On the brink of a decison or action of consequence...Crossed the Rubicon...A decision or action taken, with no going back. 

Julius Caesar basically came out of nowhere due to exceptional speaking skills and oozing political ambition (sound familiar?) to become Consul of Rome about 50 BC...and governor of Gaul...where he led his strengthening army to victory after victory over the German Tribes...becoming big time poplular in the process.  The Roman Senate and the reigning honcho Pompey didn't really like this increasing popularity of Caesar, and told him to quit, disband his army and come home.

Pompey also led an army toward Caesar's, to force him to comply with the Senate's wishes.  Otherwise, it would be battle, and Roman Civil war.  Not good.

It was also Roman law that any Roman general that crossedthe Rubicon river into Italy with an army was committing treason and such an act was tobe viewed as attacking the Republic.

Thus, if Caesar crossed the Rubicon with his army, he was passing the point of no return and beginniing a civil war.  He did. Civil war ensued, as Pompey attacked...He kicked Pompey's ass.  You know the rest.

Your charts seem to tell us that the bulls and the bears are at the Rubicon and ready to  battle and that this week, quite possibly monday or tuesday we will see who is the victor...since I feel the bears will win this round,  I bought 300 shares of SDS late friday...now having second thoughts and wondering if i acted too soon...

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#161) On March 16, 2009 at 8:45 AM, PrestonCheek (31.67) wrote:

Goodmorning all, I hope you had a good weekend and will have a profitable day today.

 

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#162) On March 16, 2009 at 9:01 AM, DanDarby (< 20) wrote:

Good morning everyone and good luck this week,

GV, thanks for the chart. Markets around the world are up, and it looks like we might open up also. Looking at your chart, it does look like A and B might have already occurred and we might be nearing the end of C to complete wave 4.

I know you say that we shouldn’t think much about time when a wave is forming, but time does factor in somehow, correct? If C completes wave 4 today or tomorrow, each part of wave 4  (A,B,C) would have been completed in a relatively similar amount of time.

If we are still in wave A, would it be safe to assume that B might take all week to form, then C might start at the end of this week or next week?

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#163) On March 16, 2009 at 9:18 AM, fladoy (96.41) wrote:

GV or everybody,

COMPQ is what looks to be a few points away from the bottom of wave 1 (1434.08). A break would change the wavecount. Anyone else care to chime in.

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#164) On March 16, 2009 at 9:37 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

 Good morning everybody!

I didn't start any hedges yet. Waiting as usuall for the first 15 minutes. Be careful with shorting!

Current 763

BRB

fladoy #163 - Thanks for bringing this up. It's on my radar but that will not eefect my decisions for now. I'll explain more.

BRB

GoodVibe

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#165) On March 16, 2009 at 10:06 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

 Ready, aim, fire at well!

Current 764

GoodVibe

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#166) On March 16, 2009 at 10:12 AM, innerflame (< 20) wrote:

Good morning- I'm a bit  under the weather with a nasty cough ( keeps me from talking too much though! :-) So I read through all the possibilities but am I the only one confused at what is happening? What are you seeing GV? Does this mean you are shorting when you say fire at will- maybe I should just go back to bed....uh oh- I'm starting to whine. Time to go rest.

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#167) On March 16, 2009 at 10:17 AM, columbia1 wrote:

I picked up a small position of SRS @ 63.20, rest in cash

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#168) On March 16, 2009 at 10:18 AM, ayekappy (< 20) wrote:

Inner:  I'm guessing he bought hedges.  The chart from last night showed that a higher opening would be perfect to short.

 

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#169) On March 16, 2009 at 10:20 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

What happen to sunny MA? Orange, limon, lime, and some sea salt! Great for cough, cold, sore throat, bad mood, and you can add only little orange for bratty children. :)

Yes, I am shorting but not in the spirit of short as to hedge. But you can call it short. Print the last chart and read my plan on it. I also let some longs go instead of shorting more.

Current 761.25

GoodVibe

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#170) On March 16, 2009 at 10:21 AM, runningin777 (< 20) wrote:

Inner

I'm a bit confused too, but GV's chart annotations said he's going in all short on an UP opening.  He waited the 15+ minutes and saw it was up and fired away.

Correct GV?

Runningin

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#171) On March 16, 2009 at 10:30 AM, innerflame (< 20) wrote:

OK- lemon- lime - salt ( and I think honey too)- I get a little crabby when I'm not feeling well. Yes- I went back to your chart and read it again. I understand- thanks for answering so quickly!

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#172) On March 16, 2009 at 10:35 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Chart update:

Daily

Enlarge

Current 766 (Ther's more upside risk for short positions as per the chart)

Correct Runningin. This is why I asked you all last night if the chart is clear to you? No body said anything, so I thought all are clear. It seems not! :(

GoodVibe

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#173) On March 16, 2009 at 10:39 AM, buildgreen (< 20) wrote:

ok.. i know this is basic. But why do my scottrade account and yahoo finance give me sligtly different prices? They both claim to be real time. What basic tennant have I missed here.


Regards

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#174) On March 16, 2009 at 10:43 AM, Mary953 (78.91) wrote:

Good Morning all,

GoodVibe - You wanted to know what part of the chart above was confusing.  How about all of it!  I am partly joking and partly not.  The problem for me is that, if I have read it correctly, you seem to be saying that the market could be going up and testing - then down, or going down followed by a test up and a final leg down, or just going straight on down from here.  General indicators for the day tomorrow are opposite whatever today is, and that this week will most likely be a down week (good for buying in) rather than an up week for selling. 

All of this is complicated by the idea that we are coming to the end of this cycle.  Wave 5 is always the most unpredictable and the only real way to know what is happening is look back after you finish with it.  Because of all of this, I don't know if I am misreading the charts, or if the charts are just showing several possible paths at once.  I finally got the book on Saturday.  Perhaps that will help.

At the moment, I am as happy with what I have learned.  I missed some profits because I bought too soon and sold too soon, but I made money and have decided to be very content with that and learn from the mistakes I made, and be happy with what I did right. 

A better lesson, I opened a highlighted blog from last week to try and figure out just what a "technofairy" was.  Apparently it's me. ;)  I am one of several that has been attacked during the last week and didn't know it.  LOL  You were right.  It was easy to laugh and close the thing without a reply.  Nobody has any power to upset you that you don't give to them.  And I think the only thing that would have distressed me would have been for someone I liked to be attacked because they defended me.  I understand much better now.

I am going to wait until the market makes some definitive move to decide whether the market is confusing or the chart is confusing.

In the meantime, enjoy your morning folks!

Mary 

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#175) On March 16, 2009 at 10:48 AM, kstarich (30.22) wrote:

Innerflame

Here's a  remedy I got from Mercola.com put drops of hydorgen peroxide in one ear (best to tilt your head) it will be fizzy for a few minutes, then tilt the other way and do opposite ear.  The hydrogen peroxide kills the viruses that are trying to take hold.  It also works great when getting a sore throat

Hope you feel better soon.

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#176) On March 16, 2009 at 10:56 AM, Mary953 (78.91) wrote:

Goodvibe,

I answered as soon as I saw the chart - promise.  The simplified chart is a lot easier to read.  I am not selling anything at the moment, and I think I will wait to buy.  (Sorry, shorting is just not a game I am comfortable with - definitely doesn't let me sleep well at night.  this is a good time to start looking at the bargain prices on the stocks I am going to be wanting to get!)

Flame 

There is absolutely nothing that says you have to strain your brain when it is feeling grumpy!  Your job today is to pamper yourself.  Hopefully you have the kids at school and the chance to put feet up and relax.  Plenty of liquids, lots of rest, my library of vids is at sweetmusiclady if you want to browse.  Or put on your favorite movie.  (Hot chocolate is extremely soothing to sore throats *grin*)

Mary

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#177) On March 16, 2009 at 11:11 AM, Ecomike (< 20) wrote:

AIG is up 98%, Fredimac and Fanniemay way up this morning too.FED Chairman Bernanki  spoke on 60 minutes last night and wall street listened! LOL.

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#178) On March 16, 2009 at 11:20 AM, Ecomike (< 20) wrote:

Where did wave A start? I don't get the wave ABC starting in the middle of a 5 wave move?

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#179) On March 16, 2009 at 11:30 AM, Ecomike (< 20) wrote:

If we break through to say 810, what does that do the wave count? Do we head for 900 then?

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#180) On March 16, 2009 at 11:35 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

           ................................        Notice ............................

New post is here. You can add new comments there. This post is close for more comments. Please don't add more comments. I'll come back to answer any questions above later tonight.

GoodVibe

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#181) On March 16, 2009 at 11:38 AM, murugan2 (37.53) wrote:

Still holding same $ amounts of both QID and QLD.  At several points today both were in the green.  Short term plan to hold QID until we pop a bit more then dump and wait for QLD to profit on downswing.  If this doesnt happen I can always dump both for a wash.

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#182) On March 16, 2009 at 11:41 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

           ................................        Notice ............................

New post is here. You can add new comments there. This post is close for more comments. Please don't add more comments. I'll come back to answer any questions above later tonight.

GoodVibe

 

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#183) On March 16, 2009 at 11:44 AM, innerflame (< 20) wrote:

Thank you Mary and KStar- I also heard about the peroxide thing a while back. This is my first illness in years- I think I just wore myself down a bit. And yes- Mary- my son is with his Dad today and tomorrow so I can rest. (The other 2 are grown-but in one week- one broke or separated his collarbone and arm snowboarding and the other crashed his motorcyle yesterday and thinks he broke is collarbone-he had his helmet on or he would be  in much worse shape).

I think I'll also start gathering the stocks I would like to buy. The 3 I have left are all down-- not all the stocks are going up. I'm honoring the rule that says- if in doubt- sit it out. I have money to invest but it's so easy to lose it that I really have to set a plan.

So happy to have you all to "keep me company " on a day I don't feel like doing much.

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#184) On March 16, 2009 at 3:51 PM, codieboy (< 20) wrote:

VIX broker upwards on daily of 43.50 after 4 touches on intraday, 730 area represents 38% PB from high and prior support, playing it on DUG, inverse, oversold on hourly, in a uptrend. SPX overbought in down trend.

 

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