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GoodVibe4Ever (< 20)

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GoodVibe Market Vibes – Ringing the bell at the top



October 12, 2009 – Comments (36)

Notice: This blog has more than 35 charts, which can be viewed by clicking here.

Major tops are made quietly while major bottoms are made violently. At bottoms, bears are loud, cocky and frightening. At tops, bulls are blind, aggressive, and careless. Last March we witnessed a sharp reversal from the bottom for full two weeks nonstop. Now, we see the quiet topping that is taking us more than two weeks so far and counting.

No surprise here. It brought to my memory the not too old event in October 2007. In October 10, 2007, the market dropped quickly to reverse back up fiercely on October 22. The NASDAQ composite even made a new high in October 31 defying the rest of the indexes! Many threw the towels, capitulated to buy, and claimed that this bull is here to stay. “Let us buy every pull back from now on to DOW 36000!”, they said! From this quiet day, slowly but surly investors started to slide down the slope of hope all the way down to the bottom of disappear while hoping, and wishing for someone to stop their capital bloodbath.

If you, the small investor who is dancing among the elephants trying to outsmart them, forgot quickly and as usual that point in the abyss where the sky was falling, allow me kindly to remind you that this is the moment you should be fearful not greedy. The time to be greedy has passed you away. Today, passing a risky opportunity is far less if nothing comparing to risking your capital chasing the latest stock mania, the gold miner rush, or the latest tip to get in or join the game in fear that this train will pass you by and will never return if you don’t hop in. Even if this to happen all you will miss is an opportunity, which is always easier recovered than losses.

I am not going as far as to call those who urge you to get in the game (whatever that is) are bad people. Some have your best interest at heart but most not. Let us also remember that the way to disaster sometimes is paved with good intentions.

I’ve been charting our way to S&P 1080 for the last two months trying to ring the bell at the top as I did in the bottom. Again, I come to you with my last major call in CAPS to ask you urgently to halt your involvement entirely in the stock market for at least the next four weeks. Don’t do anything. Don’t short anything either if you don’t feel comfortable with shorting but make sure if you don’t want to sell your current long positions for whatever reasons to at least hedge them aggressively.

Although since last week I favored a small and minor upside of more than 1080 TOP, I don't recommend going long as I said on Sep. 23; "Buying now is exactly like shorting the market below 700, you might bask in the sun for a day or two but will end up with a nasty sunburn for weeks, months, if not years to come."

Will I be wrong? Sure I can! I can’t read further in the far future and I am telling you no one can but I can tell you that during or by the end of the next 180 days chances are great that the following will come to happen:

1. The dollar will rise from today’s low in its way to make a new high. All other currencies will fall. Chances the Yen will be the least loser. The Euro and British pound will be the big losers.

2. Gold and silver will not post a major advance if any and will fall in its way to make a new low.

3. Stocks will retreat from S&P 1080 and will make the largest retracement since the start of the March rally. All beta stocks will be crushed. Names like AAPL, RIMM, AMZN, GS, GOOG, BIDU, etc should never approached with a ten-foot pole.

4. Junk bonds will be hammered to the bones.

5. Oil, Coal, Copper, Aluminum, and every industrial metal are going down. 

6. If no increase in interest rates, a lot of Fed liquidity will be drained from the market.

7. Consumer confidence will fall and social mood will start to sour again though Christmas might safe peacefully to bring the real deal in 2010.

8. I will double the value of my fantasy portfolios (see links from my website) and my murdered and ill manged CAPS (which I have no excuse whatsoever for reaching these low levels) should reach 5000 to 6000 points with accuracy above 83%  (for those who care about CAPS points).

To check out more than 35 charts and more analysis of major domestic and foreign indexes and sectors as well as many indicators, click here.

Last note: I don’t ask you to follow any of my trading style or abandon your trusted investment analysis and methods in favor of my trusted tools. It was never my intentions. My goal is and was always to expose you to a different way of approaching investing and trading and simplifying a complicated matter such as Technical analysis in hope you get interested in learning them. All I did was to demonstrate not to prove myself right or being smarter than anyone else. On the contrary, I am a simple guy with normal brain power as I said from the beginning. If I made it, most people can and many of you are way too smarter (in your own respect) than myself. 

After making my case clear that TA is at least a valuable tool to learn, I will ask you to pick from where I left you today and start learning at least the basics so you can use them before risking your hard earned coins. We built a very positive and productive community. Come join us where we will show you the way. We will not tell you what to do but we will show you how you can do it and what do you need to learn. If you would like to take charge of your financial future, come join us. Click here or visit us -

I also would like to thank CAPS team especially TMFJake for making this place the best financial site I know of. My appreciation for all the great Fools I met here and the friendship I developed with many of you. Thanks for your patience and kindness during all that time I’ve been here in CAPS as well as taking the time and energy to read what I had to write and hopefully benefited from it. I also hope that my shortcomings were far and few. For those who I didn't come across as their cup of tea, I wave you goodbye as well and wish you all the best.

As usual, I wish you everything you wish for yourselves and much more.  

Mr. Lucky

S&P 500 current 1076

PS. I will keep documenting my market calls through CAPS though with far less or no details, which will give you an insight to where I think the market is going and my website is always open for you at anytime.

Still, if you would like to know the details of my trades, click here to rec that blog.

36 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On October 12, 2009 at 3:46 PM, alexpaz (28.42) wrote:

+ rec

always a pleasure to read you analysis.


- Alex 

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#2) On October 12, 2009 at 3:55 PM, pastordisaster (< 20) wrote:


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#3) On October 12, 2009 at 4:06 PM, helicopterfool (97.41) wrote:

Thanks GV for all your thoughts and analysis.   The opportunity to try and learn from your analysis is greatly appreciated.  Most of all thanks for sharing. 

PS - Love the lounge.  I am one of the countless silent ones trying to learn. 

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#4) On October 12, 2009 at 4:38 PM, binve (< 20) wrote:

GV, holy cow, this is an impressive amount of work!! Great job and thank you as always for sharing!!

+10 recs if I could, I guess I will have to settle for one :)

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#5) On October 12, 2009 at 5:04 PM, starbucks4ever (88.63) wrote:

GV, do you realize you are never going to make any money shorting the S&P for the next 6 months? This month will see all of the following: JPM beating expectations, GS beating expectations by 100% or more, GE reporting a decent profit, Case-Schiller setting a new record, GDP revised upward, 8000 credit doubled and extended, at least one major M&A, at least one bank restarting securitizations, Dick Fuld getting a Nikita Khruschev rehabilitation award... Sorry, but whatever your charts might tell you, now is NOT the time to stand in front of a charging bull. You must wait until things start deteriorating, or at least until they stop improving.

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#6) On October 12, 2009 at 5:07 PM, dare1182 (23.83) wrote:


   As far as I remember, you called the Top at Dow 8300... do you remember that, or should i post the link to your blog back then?

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#7) On October 12, 2009 at 5:16 PM, RVAspeculator (28.31) wrote:

Careful Dare1182, you will be thrown in the "Troll" bin along with me...   :)  

But seriously, I agree with GV's most recent top call....  

Shorted in the high 1070's the first time we got there in Sept. and got a little more short today at the same level.   Of course I cover it all if we close above 1080 so I am fickle.   It's all about risk/reward and stops.... 

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#8) On October 12, 2009 at 5:24 PM, dare1182 (23.83) wrote:

I meant no disrespect to anyone, Im just saying dont be so sure my friend.. you should learn from your mistakes.. people who followed his call and GMX call at dow 8300 are probably crying now.

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#9) On October 12, 2009 at 5:30 PM, dare1182 (23.83) wrote:

I have a feeling that most of those trying to call the top here are just following Ultralong.. when he calls a top, everyone rush to call a top so they can one day (if they're right) claim OH WOW MEEEE I CALLED THE TOP, REMEMER? ok Im calling the top at Dow 10025, 10075. 10100 and if not then  10200, 10300, or Dow 11000    alright guys, dont come later and say i didnt call the top, right now and here infront of all of you. I just called the top : ) now dont buy stocks until i call the bottom sometime this year or next year.

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#10) On October 12, 2009 at 5:58 PM, anticitrade (98.53) wrote:

Yeah, I tend to disagree with goodvibe on this one.  But I have no charts or trends to back me up. 

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#11) On October 12, 2009 at 6:05 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Thanks for all the kind words.

Dare - No offense was taken, my friend! My blogs are easily found and they speak proudly for themselves. Here's also my entire track record. They are there for those who are interested in scoring points. That said, chances that you and few others never read carefully what I write, or read comments on my previous blogs or stop to ask for clarification for what they perceive me saying otherwise you won't come to say this.

I see similar comments like yours now and then (RVA even took it to extreme and kept putting it in every blog I post no matter how myself and others tried to explain it to him granting him an unfortunate status only two shares with him for obvious reasons).

I always come back and post in the comment section and the next blog that you have to make a difference between A top that produces a marginal pullback within the overall bullish trend and A major top that produces a large pullback that might take longer time and effort to overcome. I even brought the example that since 1932, we have only one top (2007), so calling tops in reality is a losing business. What we call from time to time is just pullbacks (some are longer and larger than others). For this one, my analysis leads me to believe it will be the largest pullback as I stated above (but you overlooked) since March.

To make the long story short - I never called for the top you have in your mind. I hope this made things clear to you and others. Thanks again for asking. If you see someone saying the same thing, please step in and explain.   

Z - As you see in this call, I made no recommendation to short anything and refused against your wishes to turn my market neutral call to bearish one. (comment 25 - 26 here) I am also mostly in cash as of this moment but reserve the right to short anytime soon. So I am not standing in front of any bull. Just waving my red cloth to see if this is a real bull or a calf. How about you, are you buying then to ride this coming bull?  

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#12) On October 12, 2009 at 6:05 PM, dare1182 (23.83) wrote:


you're a top fool, whats your opinion on OPK, and CPE?

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#13) On October 12, 2009 at 6:15 PM, isusan (< 20) wrote:

May I add something, GV?  I "borrowed" your signature youtube embed...  :)

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#14) On October 12, 2009 at 6:17 PM, rexlove (99.72) wrote:

How can you be so sure we hit a market top? The valuations are still inline and not pointing to being overvalued. A 5-10% correction would be nice here but there has to be something to drive the market further down.

You need a catalyst....

Unless some major market calamity occurs over the next couple of weeks the only thing that can move the market is earnings reports. I have a feeling earnings are going to beat estimates much like the 2nd quarter. This can only drive the S&P over 1200 by years end.

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#15) On October 12, 2009 at 6:32 PM, GenericInvestor (75.48) wrote:

I wish we could just ban people calling 'the top'.

These Wizards have been 'calling the top' since S&P 850.

Alstry has been saying it's all going to end since S&P 1400, 1200, 1000, 800, 700, and back again.

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#16) On October 12, 2009 at 6:33 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Dare - That comment #9 really showed me that you are not keeping up with CAPS at all. Ultra's call (no disrespect here) for whatever top he meant was long ago (I believe in July). I will not speak for his call and if it meant as I mean here or something else. You can do this on his blog. All I can say is that you should go back to read my blogs before making such incoherent and uninformed comments. I will ask you to respect people's time especially when your CAPS doesn't have any track record. Thanks!

anticitrade - Forget about mine. I said I might be wrong and I will correct my stance accordingly. I doubt it but we will see. So what's your call (no charts needed). We had a joint article in CAPS Roundtable. They asked @ 1060 if we hits 1100 or 900 first. We went opposite ways but it wasn't a fair question. Let's put the question in the right balance. Assume we are @ 1100 (which we almost there) - From 1100, will we see 1300 first or 900? I will even make it 1200 for you and 900 for me. What do you say? 

Rex - Feeling will not take you anywhere in this market but a place of regret. No wish for you to be there at all. :) Really, if you have some trusted and well tested method to trade or invest, go for it. Otherwise, stay away from feelings and emotions. I use TA and provide this to other Fools in hope it might add value to their thinking and what they are good at and I let my calls stand on their own. I know what I know and I don't venture to offer another catalyst beyond that. I leave this to smarter people than myself.

Susan - Thanks a lot for that song. It just tells it all! :)


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#17) On October 12, 2009 at 6:41 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Guys - Before the conversation starts to drift on the wrong track, let's focus on what we can learn from each others instead of shouting at others. Can we try to stop calling out other CAPS members here so we can get our time here invested wisely. Others have the right to call and express their views in whatever way they like and you have the right to turn them off. But as far as I know, it's still free country. :)


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#18) On October 12, 2009 at 6:48 PM, anticitrade (98.53) wrote:

I think both CPE and OPK are highly speculative investments that requires an abnormal understanding of the relevent soft issues. 

Since I don't think I am any smarter than anyone else, I avoid putting money in companies where I am counting on a change from unprofitable to profitable.  The inefficiencies of the market make other opportunities much less risky in my opinion. 

Whatever you do, invest in a way that is consistent with your strengths.

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#19) On October 12, 2009 at 7:04 PM, anticitrade (98.53) wrote:


I certainly didn't mean to give the impression I was shouting.  First of all, I don't think that predicting the direction of the market is a talent of mine.  I think my strength is finding the top 5-10% of companies to invest in out of thousands. 

Yet, I am  a sucker for a challenge so I will say: 1200

Partly because you left me no choice, but mostly because:

a)  Given an equal probability of it going up an down, the 1200 spot is more likely given the current position.

b)  History shows us that it does NOT have an equal chance of going up as going down, and that there is a definitive bias towards it going up.

c)  I see a lot of economic activity from my job.

d) Optimism is much much more pleasent a lifestyle than pessimism.

So there is my new bet.  Remember, I openly admit that I am not an expert in this field.

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#20) On October 12, 2009 at 7:14 PM, rexlove (99.72) wrote:

Goodvibe  - I agree with you on not investing on emotion. I try to avoid it at all costs and base most of my decisions on a stocks fundamentals. But looking at the fundamentals of the market as a whole - I only see it slightly overvalued at this point.

Given what we saw in the 2nd quarter earnings - 3rd quarter earnings should also surprise to the upside. Judging by recent earnings reports from Alcoa and Phillips -  it looks like it will.

 So unless you're a firm believer in the charts (I can't say I am) there needs to be some impetus to drive the market down from here. What is it that could drive the market lower?

BTW - I have to give you a rec for all the work you put into the charts. Between you, RVA and Binve I think we have all our TA covered! 

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#21) On October 12, 2009 at 7:30 PM, jester112358 (28.22) wrote:

Great advice across the board.  Cash will be the best trade (i.e. no trade) for the next couple of months.  Then, there will be a great opportunity to short aggressively.  I completely concur with your analysis that both Ag and Au will pull back as we are in strong credit/debt deflation.  The best way to play the overbought entities like AAPL, RIMM, AMZN is to sell front end out of the money credit call spreads.  This hedges your bets in case the insane upward trend continues. 

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#22) On October 12, 2009 at 8:37 PM, starbucks4ever (88.63) wrote:


"against your wishes to turn my market neutral call to bearish one"

I was not prompting you to go bearish, just wondering why you were calling TRT while staying neutral at the same time. By the way, I was also expecting a correction back then, and that we did get, albeit a shallow one.

"How about you, are you buying then to ride this coming bull? " 

I am staying long, but I got rid of the leverage when we approached 950, so I'm not adding any new positions. A mistake? Sure it is. But I must stick with what's working for me. If I start panicking each time we have a correction, I will surely find my way to zero even in the middle of a secular bull. Piece of mind is an asset. Having said that, I still remain committed to my Dow 14000 call, for that's where I put The Real Top. The S&P - I expect it to top somewhere around 1450, I don't see it regaining the previous highs.

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#23) On October 12, 2009 at 9:42 PM, Tastylunch (28.72) wrote:

Hmmm John Hussman seems to agree

Presently, my primary concern is that stocks are now overvalued, to about the same extent as they were in the late 1960's, and just prior to the 1987 crash, but certainly less overvalued than they were at the 2000 or 2007 peaks. Our 10-year total return projection for the S&P 500 is centered modestly above 6% annually, even if one assumes that the long-term path of earnings has been unchanged by the events of recent years. If we assume that the economy will require a much longer period to recover than has been typical of post-war recessions, the prospects for long-term returns are lower, but we don't need to assume this in order to be concerned about valuation here....

 Though rich valuations and a fresh overbought condition last week argue for tepid returns going forward, my expectation is that strong downward pressure would be most likely if market internals deteriorate somewhat – particularly in terms of breadth. Again, if technical investors are prompted to sell in an environment where sponsorship from fundamental investors is weak, large price changes may be required to relieve the disequilibrium Report this comment
#24) On October 13, 2009 at 12:46 AM, TMFJake (84.83) wrote:

Goodvibe, thanks for the thoughtful analysis now as always.

From my perch, stocks aren't cheap.  With the cyclically adjusted PE for the S&P at 20%, it's hard to argue that we have further correcting on the upside to make up for the March over correction to the downside.  Which means the market would need healthy 2010 earnings expectations to move up from here. While I expect short term earnings to continue to come in better than expected (largely owing to cost cutting and some inventory replenishment), I'm bearish on 2010 earnings (at least from where I sit now), so therefore, I don't see the market continuing to go up either.  If this isn't the top, I'd say we're close.  The Fed will prop up the dollar from here, both preventing significant deflation while keeping inflation at bay a little while longer.  All signs point toward a pullback for me too, or at least trading in a sideways range.  We'll see. 


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#25) On October 13, 2009 at 5:14 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

anticitrade wrote - "Yet, I am  a sucker for a challenge so I will say: 1200"

Hey, so the beer is on me who ever crosses the finish line first. LOL By the way you can't find an optimist on CAPS more than myself. Here's on example. :)

Rex - Remember during late 2008, we had many fundamental reasons to hold the lines and stop the bleeding but we didn't. Even Warren went shopping America, right? Couldn't beat his value investing.

On March when earning for the S&P went negative and banks were losing tons of money, you should expect we go down and instead we went up. So the catalyst that many wait for (good earnings) might not be enough to take us higher even if it came to be inline or even better. I am not saying it will not, all I am saying is that the market doesn't function only on fundamentals catalysts as many like to believe otherwise my example above couldn't be a reality.

Jester - Although your strategy is viable, I believe it is well suited for professionals who have say in the market. Few if none are here in CAPS. For more information on that strategy, click here. It is not foolproof strategy and still you can lose money. 

Notice: Selling options (instead of buying them) expose you to unlimited loss with 100% maximum gains. It's not the best way to make money. I never sell option calls or puts, period! 

Z - I know you were not prompting me to go bearish and even if you try you will not unless you tell me why. :) So, as I understand, you believe that we got the pullback you thought the market needed (1080 - 1020) and we are back to the bull programming from here, right?

And good luck for your trading/investing. As long as it is working for you, keep using it until it stops working. It is wise to stick to  what's working for you as you said.

Tasty and Jake - Thanks guys for badly needed FA prospective. I've been begging people to come and add FA to my blogs so they can provide a complete prospective to whatever I post about. Are you doing this as a goodbye wave for my last call in CAPS ? :)

Seriously, I read a lot of stuff everywhere that S&P P/E is not sustainable at these levels even with "good" earnings. I mean they have to beat big and their forward earning must also meet what is already backed in the cake, right?

For all, I updated my site, market summary, and call as usual. New important stuff. Click here for the latest.

Have a good and profitable day.



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#26) On October 13, 2009 at 7:32 AM, starbucks4ever (88.63) wrote:

"So, as I understand, you believe that we got the pullback you thought the market needed (1080 - 1020) and we are back to the bull programming from here, right?"

Yes, this pretty much sums it up. To be sure, we'll have a couple of more corrections on our way to 14000. Let's say, one at 10500 and another at 11500. The last part of the rally will be parabolic of course, it always is.

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#27) On October 13, 2009 at 8:49 AM, skeptic86 (31.52) wrote:

thanks gv,

I agree that the downside potential for the s&p500 is greater than the upside right now. It looks like people are taking your call for the top to mean you should short aggressively. I think what you are trying to say is you should not start any large long position here,  maybe even sell some longs, or sit on your hands for a bit. Its a long way to the bottom. There will be plenty of time to short agressively after some comformation.


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#28) On October 13, 2009 at 3:43 PM, XMFSinchiruna (26.57) wrote:


Just so that your record is clear, would you mind defining a "new low" for gold and silver with a bit more specificity as to your exact price targets? Are you referring to the more recent lows around $700 gold and $8.50 silver? Ditto for the USD ... would you mind quantifying that call for a new high for the dollar? Are you predicting a high above 120 on the USDX???? Or are you referring to the near-term high-mark of 90?

Much obliged ...since quantitative targets are generated via technical analysis, I'm sure you have specific numerical targets or ranges in mind for each.

Gold and silver will not post a major advance if any and will fall in its way to make a new low.

For the record, gold already has posted a major advance from $1,005 where you called a top on October 4, to $1,060 ... officially canceling the 18-month corrective range-bound phase between $700-$1,033. Whether that advance is extended or interrupted going forward hinges upon the key technical pivot point of 0.76 on the USDX ... which is presently the line in the sand that will determine the next near-term move within the broader multi-year bull market for precious metals.

It is entirely posible for gold and silver to take a breather here after an explosive run (again depending upon the action in the dollar). While a blip of near-term strength in the USDX is plausible if investors are spooked back into Treasuries by another precipetous decline in the broader indeces (which I agree is imminent), the dollar raly will be far smaller and shorter than the prior reversal as the fundamental environment has changed inalterably.

I think $1,000 now has a chance of holding as a floor beneath gold, but consider $980 as a far greater foundation of support. In the unlikely event that $980 breaks amid a truly miraculous and manipulated dollar rally, then $950 and $900 stand as bastions of reinforcements behind the gold price. The likelihood of a test of $900 is extremely slim IMO.

If gold hits below $630 as indicated by your recent chart here anytime in the next 12 months, and before reaching new highs above $1,200, I will gladly dub you the "grand master of precious metals calls" in all subsequent references to your GV moniker. :)

I look forward to your clear and concise statement of numerical price targets for gold, silver, and the USDX.

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#29) On October 13, 2009 at 10:15 PM, Tastylunch (28.72) wrote:


hunh why are you leaving CAPS? 

fraid the CIL is not for me. Doesn't mesh well with my 9-5

I don't have time for much beyond CAPS, so I'll probably be a lurker/reader at your new blog.

well thanks for all you posted so far, It really helped me understand how EWP works better.


I'm more of your mindset on Gold. The fundamental case is pretty strong and we have a clear breakout.

I can see GV's pov based off his charts, but I distrust EWP at this point on Gold for reasons I'll state below.

I read this bit on a quantative study on EWP's effectivesness the other day on investopedia

Of the thousands of equities, indexes and commodities tested, Swannell's team found that in about 65% of the cases, Elliott Wave theory proved too unreliable to be used to trade with any degree of confidence. In other words, using the theory to trade the instruments included in this 65% would prove a losing proposition. It means that traders should limit their focus to the 35% that proved to be viable trading candidates.

But why did only about one-third of the candidates work using Elliott? It has to do with the basis of the Elliott principle, which quantifies market crowd behavior. Elliott Wave theory works best in equities that (1) have lots of volume (liquidity) and (2) move according to key forces of fear and greed on the part of many participants. When a security is not prone to this crowd behavior and is controlled instead by a few strong hands, Elliott patterns begin to break down. Issues traded by a few are more subject to manipulation and control and, therefore, are more difficult to forecast.

Elliott warned us that his theory worked best on indexes and very liquid securities, so Swannell's finding was not all that surprising. But now the notion was proven and quantified and a list of trading candidates was identified. In the process, a large amount of subjectivity and uncertainty was removed. 

long story short EWP works and works very well on markets/indices as long as they are left untampered with but is often inaccurate on individual equities and commodities (and presumably currencies given the rampant geopolitical meddling)

Since Gold and Silver are treated like currencies by many investors I would say EWP is not reliably applicable to them given the study's results.

I personally don't see Gold and Silver going back down unless the IMF etc start dumping bullion en masse. My guess is they probably will do so at some point in the furture. But given how strong the smart money demand is (einhorn, Paulson etc) for gold of late + the big technical breakout I have a feeling they can only slow down Gold now, not stop it.

Time will tell. I wouldn't mind Gold going back down to 660 if GV ends up being right. I'd back up the truck if that happens. :)

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#30) On October 14, 2009 at 5:54 PM, TigerPackFund (< 20) wrote:

Goodvibe, Tasty & anchak -

Please send some "underperform" picks on your least favorite individual stocks to

We could definitely use hedges in the experiment, in case we enter a sell-off stage the next several months.

TigerPackFund's results will hold up better during a market decline/correction with 10-15 more underperforms that hit the mark.  Please refrain from ETFs, especially doubles and triples if you can.


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#31) On October 14, 2009 at 9:43 PM, c0ld (< 20) wrote:

Hi GV and all,

 I turned the magnifying glass off for the past few months. I wonder how the CIL is going these day.  Hope everyone is still into it even though the voerall outlook was bearish @ 900




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#32) On October 15, 2009 at 2:21 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

c0ld - The lounge can be found here: You've been behind the curve for a long time. I hope you are not also behind the curve for your positions if you have any. :)

z - All the best to you with your call.

Tiger - I am sorry. I am winding down my participation in CAPS. Last thing I will do is to get out of my pick with ALLSTAR CAPS. This will be my end of the ride here. Thanks for inviting me to CAPS and best wishes to you and your loved ones.  

Tasty - There is always time to leave and it was planned from the beginning as you know very well. I had my reasons for that time-frame and I might tell you about it one day. The lounge is open 24/7 so stop when you have the time or feel free to comment on my blogs in my site and keep me posted about your prospective. Thanks for your kind and pleasant character. You were always helpful.

By the way do you have a link to what you quoted about EW? I would like to read the whole thing. Most of what you said is correct and this is why I trade only liquid issues. EW can predict commodities like gold and oil for example but they are known to overshoot to both sides (up and down) so it's factored and expected.

Sinch - I am not expecting or have a desire to be called anything. Thanks! For my 180 days calls, It's clear we will make little or no advance from here. During that time we will push LOWER from that post's price. How lower we will go in those 180 days, I don't know. That said, I know what you are after. My call, which might take 6 months, year, or two (I don't know) should bring gold below $680 and silver below $8.40 and from there we are going to see all your upside target fulfilled until gold really tops in 2020 @ who knows how much $1200 $2000 or even $5000 when the bull cycle in gold and silver runs its full course. For the dollar, it should hit at least 90 before it slides back and make a new low and maybe replaced with something else (who knows). I think this is clear enough to hold me accountable for my calls. If my analysis changes, I will be happy to see you checking my updates on my site far before hand. Until then, my call stands.

This is the line in the sand for the US Dollar and this is the line in the sand for gold and this is the line in the sand for silver. I hope you liked my last BULLISH call for silver! :)

And one more thing, please don't exclude market manipulation when factoring your analysis. It was, is, and will always be the case. There's no such thing as free market. We just like to believe such things. The dollar will be manipulated as well as gold. What serves the best interest of large pool of money will be pushed higher. You may call it manipulation but isn't that case with anything tradable? That is what I believe. 


This is my last reply in CAPS. Please if you have questions or comments, check my website or visit the chat room @

I wish all of you the best you wish for yourselves.


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#33) On October 17, 2009 at 8:15 PM, AntiRonChapmanJr (< 20) wrote:

It's about time.


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#34) On October 18, 2009 at 3:14 PM, Tastylunch (28.72) wrote:

sure  GV , my bad I normally include sources.

In any event I read the underlying study as well that's cited in the abovea rticles but thought this article was more succint

The conclusion about Gold was my own extrapolatig what the study means.  The problem I see with EWP (right now ) anyway) on Oil and Gold is not that it shouldn't be correct, but that those markets are both heavily manipulated by geo political forces...

I haven't looked at Rice/wheat/sugar but I would think those markets might be an example of a couple commdoities where EWP might work better since they are still hevaily liquid but lower on the bankers totem poles.

heck you never hear anyone on CAPS talk about them at all e.g. despite their huge importance.

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#35) On October 21, 2009 at 11:02 PM, anchak (99.91) wrote:

Hey TIger....I missed your comment man!

I am not so regular to CAPS these days either. Certainly appreciate the invitation. I am extremely neutral in RLP - infact I picked FXA and FXC back in June - and those are steady places.

I know you are Gold bear - and I think Dollar is due for a bounce - well looks like I am early on that one.

Take care.....and all the best


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#36) On November 12, 2009 at 4:55 PM, d1david (28.64) wrote:

goodvibe- why did you close out all your bearish bets?  at the top...sp500 at 1100 yesterday and you closed a lot of them out... please explain.

thank you

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