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GoodVibe4Ever (< 20)

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GoodVibe Market Vibes - Bulls victoria!

Recs

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March 24, 2009 – Comments (380)

After the bulls crossed the Rubicon, smashed the resistance at 804.30, now I can call THE bottom is in @ 666! They did it even before I thought they well. Another lesson to all of us that Mr. market can do whatever he wishes. Actually, I should directed the warning of the ides of March to the bears instead of the bulls but live and learn! My short positions from last swing now feel the pain but my longs are doing just fine. The good news for the bears that we are overdue for a pull back, so no worry here about either. I will wind down my short positions (win, lose, or draw) in the next pullback and replace them with long ones in expectation for the continuation of this rally.

Everybody, all I am calling here is THE TIP of THE BOTTOM. So a pull back should be expected and accumulating long positions should be the policy everytime we get a correction. At least this is what I will do. As I told the bears before, if you thought that March 9th rally is gone, you still ain't see anything yet. Now, I know all the bears will jump over me and call me names for providing false hope and pipe dreams but heck, didn't they say the same @ 666? Did you notice that I get more Recs for my bearish calls than my bullish calls and I am the same person? Call this a sentiment indicator! :)

Here are the charts:


   Enlarge   Live Chart


   Enlarge   Live Chart


   Enlarge   Live Chart


   Enlarge   Live Chart

Now that I can rest assure that we made THE bottom, from now on, I'll only post weekly market vibes' update with no intraday charts. If I see any needs for update during the week, I’ll come and post it here. Soon, I'll start our class blogs as I promised who wanted such a thing to show you how TA can help you make better decisions or for those capable ones to become traders if they desired so. It all depends on the time and the energy you will put into learning. As usuall, I hope this finds you and yours well.

What do you think?

GoodVibe
The Lucky one

PS. Let's try to reduce the length of our comments (unless it’s helpful), and refrain from unnecessary ones. Please, no emotinal comments. Logic wins, impulse kills. I hope this post hold for sometime before I open a new one. For some guidelines please click here (comment 1) before you post. Thanks!

380 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On March 24, 2009 at 4:15 AM, Mary953 (74.95) wrote:

GV,

I left you a comment on the other blog at the same time you were closing it.  No need to repost.  It was just to you and not helpful to community.  Onward, friend!  Mary

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#2) On March 24, 2009 at 4:35 AM, Kenaida22 (< 20) wrote:

GV,

I know you don't like talking about indivdual stocks, but i would really appreciate your view on faz under 20$ for the very short term pull back.

Thanks

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#3) On March 24, 2009 at 4:49 AM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

Yes, my Fib. count was right on the 2 yr chart.... Wahooo...lol Ok, I'm passing out and ti's way to late to think.. good night all! See ya tomorrow!

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#4) On March 24, 2009 at 5:43 AM, oversea (< 20) wrote:

GoodVibe,

good morning. Asian stocks up. While European ones after a good start at the moment I'm writing are dipping (forecast for a pull back in the US?). Here I'm here again ready  to learn a new  lesson. Now all the longs  I had patiently bought since last January should turn green slowly one by one.  Since I have a fair amount of dry power left to be used to buy other longs during pullbacks it will be important to determine the correct timing for action. This, I believe, will be the more difficult bit and this is what I'd like to learn.

Have a good day you all

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#5) On March 24, 2009 at 6:05 AM, DaretothREdux (43.88) wrote:

Good morning everyone!

The newest post by the blogger known as Dare for your enjoyment.

Good luck on the coming pull back. Trust me, we will pull back...call it the Wisdom of the Fool!

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#6) On March 24, 2009 at 6:08 AM, DaretothREdux (43.88) wrote:

BTW GV Community...I don't know if anyone else has noticed, but at GV's current pace for recs/blog he will enter the TOP 10 in the next 3 posts knocking TheHypnoToad off the list!

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#7) On March 24, 2009 at 8:05 AM, mark91055 (< 20) wrote:

Ecomike-here you go...of course only as an example, not a reccomendation

Mon Mar 23 09:38:47 2009 Buy xxx IWM Apr 30 Puts Executed @ $0.12

Mon Mar 23 11:04:55 2009 Buy xxx IWM Apr 50 Calls Executed @ $0.06

Mon Mar 23 16:01:56 2009 Sell xxx IWM Apr 50 Calls Executed @ $0.18 

GV-i am posting these as an example because Mike asked.  If  you would prefer me not post trades I'll respect your wishes.

 

All-I am still holding the short side of the straddle and will add a long leg on the pullback today

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#8) On March 24, 2009 at 8:25 AM, PrestonCheek (32.60) wrote:

Russ, thanks a lot helping me with that chart. I need help with just what you are talking about, sizes, 10 minute, 30 min. etc. I know they must change but there has to be a standard. anyway I'm going to be your start student just give me a chance, together we can make the teach proud. :) I will post more charts and tell you what I'm confused on and maybe you can steer me in the right direction.

Mark, I'm glad you posted that here, I'm reading on straddle options now and that really helps.

GV, you said I could use your links, was that the chart links you were talking about?

I have your templet you give me on all my charts, when I was posting that one I removed some to try and make it bigger. I hope that was what you seen. I still have the original link you gave me so next time I will use that ok.

I have several stocks on my radar and a lot of dry powder but I will wait for the pullback before I deploy. I will complete my night shift this weekend and will have some time off to spend with this community and I'm looking forward to that.

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#9) On March 24, 2009 at 8:43 AM, Gemini846 (51.77) wrote:

So you think that the Fed's manipulation has nothing to do with the wave, that it could break the pattern slightly?

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#10) On March 24, 2009 at 8:47 AM, dudemonkey (38.57) wrote:

Rec for pointing out that Mr. CAPS Market is depressed.

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#11) On March 24, 2009 at 9:04 AM, PrestonCheek (32.60) wrote:

Gemini, if your talking to me yes I think the pattern will break just like GV has pointed out in his charts, we will have pullback, we have to have one to go higher, that will be wave 2 down before we start wave 3 up.

I'm not buying anything before this happens.

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#12) On March 24, 2009 at 9:06 AM, ayekappy (< 20) wrote:

 DaretothREdux (99.08):  I hope so.  Yesterday hurt pretty bad.  One good thing is that a lot of my bull friends started getting really really scared once DOW was pushing past 350 pts.  As big as that rally was, none of my zombie calls went up in value, bah! >:(

 

 GoodVibe4Ever (99.75): No problem, I can see why you wouldn't want to respond to me anymore.  I usually do just whine and complain about my misfortune.  Do know that I still have learned many valuable lessons from the last month and despite everything I feel like I am starting to be a stronger investor; the biggest part being learning to trust my instincts above all others, but to take in all new information for consideration.  

I'm just happy I didn't post anything offensive last night considering how perturbed and drunk I got! :) 

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#13) On March 24, 2009 at 9:12 AM, goldfishka (51.57) wrote:

Hello Everyone, i am a silent lurker for the past two weeks and a complete newby to investment world, but trying to follow charts and comments. now i see only charts and must confess i am at lost. would not bother GV to comment on them, but hope someone who been following this blog for a bit longer than me could shed some light?

 thanks!!!

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#14) On March 24, 2009 at 9:21 AM, jacaris (< 20) wrote:

GV, I just wanna say that I'm glad that you came out and admitted that you were wrong about the trade. When I asked about the next resistance level up, it proved to be important information because we blew right through 804. I had originally set stops and I took them off yesterday. I took a beating, but I'm willing to be patient enough to sell when the market pulls back.

The bottom line is that I learned a valuable lesson yesterday. Stick to the plan you put in place regardless of who says what. At the end of the day I'm the only one who has to live with not trusting my gut instinct. I really do appreciate your honesty. Everyone makes mistakes.

P.S. McHugh has been calling for 9,400 - 11,200 DOW and is saying that the coming phi turn date (26th) should be the top, then we go into wave 2 down.

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#15) On March 24, 2009 at 9:26 AM, jacaris (< 20) wrote:

correction -

P.S. McHugh has been calling for 9,400 - 11,200 DOW and is saying that the coming phi turn date (26th) should be the top of wave 1 up, then we go into wave 2 down.

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#16) On March 24, 2009 at 9:37 AM, DanDarby (< 20) wrote:

Gemini,

The Elliot Book states:

"All rules (which were covered in Lessons 1 through 9) and guidelines (which are covered in Lessons 1 through 15) fundamentally apply to actual market mood, not its recording per se or lack thereof. Its clear manifestation requires free market pricing. When prices are fixed by government edict, such as those for gold and silver for half of the twentieth century, waves restricted by the edict are not allowed to register. When the available price record differs from what might have existed in a free market, rules and guidelines must be considered in that light."

Now the feds didn't actually set a price fix on the financials over the past week, but I would say that they definitely skewed their value. If they hadn't done that I think we would be in GV's original scenario, going down in wave V instead of our new scenario. What the feds did over the past week (for better or worse) was not your ordinary news.

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#17) On March 24, 2009 at 9:40 AM, PrestonCheek (32.60) wrote:

Man what a battle.

Gv, I figured out what you said about the link, I have a stockcharts account and I'm using your link to my account.

Thanks

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#18) On March 24, 2009 at 9:41 AM, binve (< 20) wrote:

Everybody

You know what I think would be a useful exercise?

In order to keep these conversations talking about Technical Analysis in any form vs. What is the stock market going to do on a very short term basis (which I fully admit that I am guilty of), lets all talk about what kind technical analysis we are performing and what kind of conclusions it is leading us to. I think that would be very interesting.

I very much like to look at weekly charts for trending purposes, daily charts for (general) timing, and then 30-min / 5-min charts for very specific timing. I often find that stepping back and looking at the very big picture (as Goodvibe has said many times) is a good way to gain perspective.

Here is some basic analysis on the S&P. This is a 3-year weekly chart:

Enlarge

Where I am coming from:

I use both Technical Analysis and Fundamental Analysis. It is very difficult for me to make decisions based on one alone. The way I resolve this conflict is that I actually have 2 accounts, one long term and one trading account. In my short term account I play trends with TA.

What I see for the S&P:

From a long term perspective, I think the market is still too high. Based on valuations alone, we have not reached the traditional bottoms (PE of 8-10) the usually accompany the bottom. In fact based on the enormitiy of the credit problem, I will be not bullish on equities in general until we see PEs of 6.

But that is all fine and good for the very long term, but what about the short term? When I step back and look at the weekly charts it looks like the really good bear market rally is happening. This is the one that GV is talking about. I thought that one was going to materialize in January, but instead we got lower lows in Feb/March. So I was turning bullish and then capitulated bearish. I should have looked at my own mindset as a contrarian indicator :)

So based on the chart with the divergences and the strong bottom that I show above, I agree with GV. This looks like the bottom for a very strong bear market rally that will last many months.

The short term and my trading account:

Okay, so that is what I see for the intermediate term. The short term, I see a pullback in equities. This market is too overextended and rose too high too fast. There will be a pullback.

I am also very bullish on oil right now. I think there will be a pullback in oil soon (within a week or so).

My account is
- 30% oil
- 20% ultrashorts
- 50% cash

I am lightening up on oil slightly yesterday and today. I will buy oil on all pullbacks. I actually added to my ultrashorts at the end of yesterday. I will unload those once we get a pullback, either for profit or loss. I will probably start going long in equities on the next pullback too.

So that is my plan, that is what I see.

Everybody:

What is your plan? How are you positioned? What are you seeing in the markets? What TA have you performed that leads you to your conclusions? I am very interested and I know that everybody else is too.

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#19) On March 24, 2009 at 9:44 AM, gonelong (35.45) wrote:

DanDarby (< 20)

 I am in agreement with you, so I mostly stayed on the sidelines for this one as I see what amounts to a calculated, planned, and executed lifting of the financials.  I probably should have played FAS, but GV's charts game me pause to do so.  Either way, saved most of my capital and that's the most important thing.

I googled a bit for either an Elliot Wave decision tree, matrix, flow-chart, etc. to see if one existed to assist in defining waves.  If someone knows where one exists, please point it out for me.  If not ... I may have to consider trying to generate one for myself.  I see software available to assist in couting waves, so I assume there is a finite set of guidelines to consider.  Will know more when I can get my hands on a book and get started evaluating for myself.

 GL

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#20) On March 24, 2009 at 9:51 AM, innerflame (< 20) wrote:

Binve- thank you for that- so useful. I am still formulating my long term plan for my IRA ( I have one stock in there- it's up at the moment :-) But I plan on adding at the pullbacks.

For the short term- next couple months-  I want to add oil plus a few of my favorites in the energy , tech and construction sectors. Because I have a teen I'm also watching ATVI and some of the companies that are influenced by his age group.

I got my hand slapped on the shorts but that was a great learning experience. As others probably did- I got lost in the trees and couldn't see the forest. It happens. 

GV_ I hope you rest. You took on quite a challenge. I am one of the believers that experience is the best teacher. Thanks for all you've done!

-Flame

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#21) On March 24, 2009 at 9:52 AM, Mary953 (74.95) wrote:

My quick question - Yesterday's post had a note of panic.  Not the right emotion for any decision.  Does the guideline above mean we are going to technical and non-emotional discussions of the market and trends or does it mean we are including still the upbeat, the youtube, the music, the fun and comeraderie that has marked this site.  I think the later is part of the community here and would hate for it to fall by the wayside, but I will abide by group decision.  I am out for most of the day today.  My answer will be what you choose to do with the site by the time I get back.

Mary

And as I told GV, I was kidding about Geithner yesterday.  I did not mean it to sound serious.  It would take something along the lines of 9/11 to actually make more than a temporary speed bump in market momentum.

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#22) On March 24, 2009 at 10:04 AM, Tutom (< 20) wrote:

PrestonCheek  - I use Investor's Business Daily to find stocks with great fundamentals breaking out of good bases during a rally. So I'm looking at individual stock charts at the moment to buy at pivot points. Mostly using weekly charts. Speaking of low PE's, I see you used to work at MEOH. I happen to own MEOH currently. Would love to hear your take on it. Feel free to email me directly. I've currently reading EWP. After reading this blog for a couple months or so, I find that EW really enhances my decision making. Yes, I got short too soon, but longs are doing well, so I'm not sweating it. I understand that there will be a retracement and I now know approximately how much. EW is a great tool!

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#23) On March 24, 2009 at 10:17 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Good Morning everybody -

Thanks for your good wishes but it's not time yet for rest before we get our short money back, add more longs, and ride this beast to its destination.

For those who didn't get a plan on the chart, now is the time to devise a plan of your own, even better a chart of your own. As per the charts above, you have a measurable pullback with specific numbers where I will liquidate shorts and adds more longs. It's time to wind down my shorts. Win, or draw will be great and will be taken on every short position when possible. If the pull back exhaust itself while I still have losing positions, I'll take my loss on them. So far, I don't expect much if any but time will tell. 

I noticed that some few might depended on my decisions solely despite my calling to devise their plans that fit them, so don't expect "ready, aim, fire" anymore... I know you loved it as I did too but this is to the best of all.

And you can post as much as you want and talk about anything you like. We're not only here to teach and learn but also to put a smile on each other's face and heart. Be happy!

Stay positive. Winning begins within!

Current 817

GoodVibe 

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#24) On March 24, 2009 at 10:21 AM, anchak (99.85) wrote:

I did a Fib analysis on 1-degree higher and 2-degrees higher .....and do not take this as any independent confirmation - because I think GV did the same - because the numbers/ranges are matching.

I apologize - I am not good at putting up charts.

For the current rally :

(1) It has a chance of going as high upto the 835-840 range. Because it broke thru the 805 resistance band - which was very very strong - ie it was multiple resistances from a lot of time-periods. 

(2) Logically, there is a good chance of 778 retrace ( with some strong support coming at 805 now). I intend to exit as much of my shorts at this point - AT A LOSS ( not all - because that's where I entered some too)

(3) I will keep some of my crash puts open as insurance - as GV says possibly entering long positions.

(4) If this goes below to 750 .....I'll start adding LONG TERM investments -becuase I see 10% downside - and lot of upside. Those won't be trades.

(5) Incidentally I am bullish agriculture(Long term)...with Oil above 50 - I will possibly wait for a better entry. Currently only thru indexing.

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#25) On March 24, 2009 at 10:22 AM, 5wave (< 20) wrote:

Hello All!!  I look forward to being a part of your community.  I've kept up with your blog for several weeks and really have enjoyed your input.  Although I'm somewhat new to investing I've been around business long enough to know that "you can't polish a turd".  This change of the market is a headfake and caught me once several weeks ago. It won't do it again. I'm watching from the sidelines for a bit.  The administration is setting this up for a classic pump and dump while the small time investor loses his shorts (no pun intended).  Look forward to adding whatever miniscule input I may have.  

 BS 

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#26) On March 24, 2009 at 10:47 AM, innerflame (< 20) wrote:

Anchak- what do you mean when you say "currently only thru indexing"- on your (5)-Ag-Oil..

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#27) On March 24, 2009 at 10:48 AM, floridabuilder2 (99.23) wrote:

good vibe... have you also noticed that you are greeted with warm arms on bearish calls and attacked on bullish calls.... when in fact you are not biased but following a system... 

yeaaaa.....

join the club

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#28) On March 24, 2009 at 10:57 AM, goldminingXpert (29.57) wrote:

Obligatory comment coming...

Now, I know all the bears will jump over me and call me names for providing false hope and pipe dreams

GMX jumps all over you and says, "How DARE YOU provide false hope and pipe dreams?!?" ;)

Seriously, as a note to everybody reading this, here is a prime example of why technical analysis must be used selectively. Fundamental analysis says there is virtually no shot that 666 is THE BOTTOM. Thus, one must either A) look for a technical pattern that can co-exist with the clear fundamental picture or B) only use shorter-term charting until the chart does get cleared up.

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#29) On March 24, 2009 at 11:02 AM, anchak (99.85) wrote:

FB...always good to see you....read/recd your blog.....yep I know about the Bid/Ask spread issue - and its always "who's going to eat that" - doesn't impact from your perspective.Because as you said - this time deals will be done at Bid - not at ask. So the govt has to figure out something.

innerflame: I use index funds - there are a ton of ag ETFs/Funds which track a variety of indices. My 401K plan does the CRB Commodity index - which is mixed bag commodity  

 

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#30) On March 24, 2009 at 11:07 AM, floridabuilder2 (99.23) wrote:

anchak of course you understand because like me you work in the space....  the govt thinks it has figured it out (geitners plan yesterday) when in fact they haven't because they don't understand the problem you and I see from our daily lives in this space...

there are two choices... let the banks fail and the asset prices reset... by doing this you get some more deflation temporarily but then a business that say wanted to start but rent was 2,000/month now can rent from the new building owner at 1,000/mo because his cost basis is lower and he wants to fill the building....  the second choice is that the govt uses taxpayer money to save the banks and takes the hit for them... this leverage to people like me will reinflate the assets... leverage always and i mean always reinflates assets

those are the only two choices either way I get what I want for nothing

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#31) On March 24, 2009 at 11:08 AM, ranger66 (< 20) wrote:

binve,

If PE's need to return to 6, then we don't have a country anymore. 

Ranger

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#32) On March 24, 2009 at 11:10 AM, herztical (28.14) wrote:

...sometimes it's good to step back and get your head clear.  Recouping some of the losses back today and looking at more longs (was def too overweight short yesterday). Now sticking to shorts were the fundamentals are lousy and not try to time the market.  

Anchak, I also like the AG/OIL/COMOD stocks but they had such a run so will scale into them as they pullback. 

GV, again thank you for the updates, always appreciated and I have to remember that this is a marathon and not a race even though it's very tempting to look at things by the day if not the minute! 

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#33) On March 24, 2009 at 11:10 AM, gonelong (35.45) wrote:

Mary953 (99.36) - My $.02

I guess my preference would be that less is more, especially during the hours of 9:00-4:00.   I think those types of postings feed into the emotion and make it more difficult to stay on task while the market is open.

Personally I am not a big fan of the posting ot Youtube videos, music, etc. because that is not what I am here for and it simply increases the time it takes me get at the content I am interested in.

On the other hand, all work and no play makes Johnny a dull boy.  I am involved in other forums where I partake in similar so I am not casting stones by any means. I only post because you asked, and would not have otherwise.

-gonelong

 

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#34) On March 24, 2009 at 11:22 AM, binve (< 20) wrote:

ranger66, I would qualify that statement: "We don't have a country , as we know it now, anymore"

This will probably start a debate, and I don't really want it to. I will keep my statements brief and qualify this as my opinion:

Change needs to happen. Assets are way too overvalued and have been for many years (housing, mortgage backed securities, bonds, etc.). The system is still built on too much consumer spending and is built on too much highly inflated stuff.

If you look at historic PE ratios cycles over the last >100 years, we have gone through several cycles that last about 33 years each when market is characterized by very high PE ratios (Dow and S&P PE > 20-25) and eventually becomes a large correction. These have bottomed between PE of 6 and 10. Based on the enormity of the problem (and how high the S&P PE was in the last couple of years >40) I think this correction will be extremely painful. So yes I think something like a PE of 6 is not out of the questions.

Yet America has bounced back from these corrections before. Why would it be different this time?

The economy is unhealthy, it needs to be cleansed. Will it be painful? Undoubtedly. But to say if we get down to a broad market PE of 6 that we don't have a country anymore is incorrect and does not jive with historical data. It also doesn't jive with the American ethic. We band together when we are down and build ourselves back up.  I know we will.

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#35) On March 24, 2009 at 11:25 AM, anchak (99.85) wrote:

herztical :

I hear you ....and that's the issue... you need to differentiate the companies from the commodity...like  binve is doing with oil.

On companies you need to do a very good valuation analysis to understand whether you are getting a discount or not.

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#36) On March 24, 2009 at 11:26 AM, columbia1 wrote:

I am trying to help out with some charts, this is PBR, this is my first attempt at posting so please be patient, when I get the hang of posting. I will expand on the counts.

I have a 1,2,3,4,5 (wave 1) count that is almost finished, soon PBR will start a corrective wave down, A,B,C, to finish wave (2).

Please critique away!!!

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#37) On March 24, 2009 at 11:29 AM, ralphmachio (26.18) wrote:

What's up all. I'm one of those idiots (that belong at Circus Circus in Reno) that averaged out at 29$ FAZ, and held on.  I will now further endanger my remaining credibility by briefly explaining Timewave Zero.  Terence Mckenna, after using the I Ching, decided to somehow graph what is known as the Kings Sequence of hexagrams, and was astonished to see a correlation between peaks and valleys in his chart, and peaks and valleys in human development. He was also a bit concerned to see that the chart he made ended in 2012, Dec 21, and he says he LATER found out about the Mayan calendar, which is quite a coincidence. This pertains to this blog because in a timewave zero blog, they were predicting a market crash on march 9, due to a dip in the "vibe" of the planet. I find it a bit strange that the opposite result occurred, unless I say to myself, was this rally based on Bad News misinterpreted as good news, rumors of profit, political posturing, and media compliance? Is this a suckers rally on steroids?  Of course, I'd like to think that...

At any rate, I don't blame you or the community for my impulsive decisions.  "Buy the ticket, Take the ride", Hunter S Thompson.

That being said, ya'll got any constructive criticism pertaining to getting myself (holding 29$ faz) un-screwed?  I'm 6months into this, still havin fun, but I almost lost what I made on C and DLLR, which I bought 2 days prior to the rally, when the news was as bleak as I've ever seen.  I just jumped the gun on this correction, and vastly underestimated the 'eager' nature of the public, and the resolve of the Government. Sometimes being a contrarian hurts.

Peace and take er easy GV

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#38) On March 24, 2009 at 12:01 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

binve ~ I love your position and comment! It's much apprieciated. Great post!

columbia1 ~ Can you try to link your chart to Flicker so we can read it.. Or you can link it to Stockcharts.com as well. I would love to take a look at your chart.

Mary~ You know what I would really like more than a music video? Yep, you guessed it... A chart... Sorry Mary to call you out or put you on the spot, but that is the next chapter for you to learn. Your an awsome person, and I have a feeling you have a mental block about EW and charting. I know you have the right intuition and knowldege of the market and the economy. Your blogs are amazing! Your like the mother to this community and if you had EW down, you couldn't stop yourself from sheparding people to the right direction. I believe in you!

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#39) On March 24, 2009 at 12:09 PM, binve (< 20) wrote:

Innerflame (#20) and Russ (#38): Thanks!

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#40) On March 24, 2009 at 12:23 PM, columbia1 wrote:

Russ-

ENLARGE  lets see how this works!!

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#41) On March 24, 2009 at 12:27 PM, Helgaki (< 20) wrote:

mary,

 

I skip the videos

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#42) On March 24, 2009 at 12:30 PM, columbia1 wrote:

GV, Russ, I really commend you guys, it is a lot of work posting these charts!!! I still have a lot more to add, The fib numbers, and the lines of support and resistance. I am out of time for now, maybe tonight I will have extra time to expand on this chart.

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#43) On March 24, 2009 at 12:32 PM, buildgreen (< 20) wrote:

Check the INDU chart. It looks like this call is that shorts are still the play. 

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3271030

 

I notice different people with different counts. Does anyone care to comment?

 

 

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#44) On March 24, 2009 at 12:35 PM, anibas (67.25) wrote:

From GV's previous blog: 

"Trading is something that humbles even the Hitler of the world. It stirs all the emotions you can never imagine possible. It’s a big part of the game. You remember when you asked me how long it took me to make my mark. Not long really but what took really long time is my current ability to hold my emotions together no matter what. This is going to be your hardest task. All this TA is nothing comparing to acquiring this ability. Anyone can learn TA but very few will be able to succeed in trading because of this barrier. And wait when you place an order of 7 figures and it goes against you! That will be a lot of fun. :)"

GV- Other than having a plan, would you share some of the ways that have helped you to deal with the emotional aspect of trading? It would be great to hear other traders' thoughts on this as well. 

Being relatively new to trading, but not to making difficult decions under pressure, I was surprised at how difficult overcoming this barrier has been for me. 

Thank you to all for your willingness to share - this community is providing an extremely valuable & positive education in stock trading.   

 

 

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#45) On March 24, 2009 at 12:39 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

Columbia~ Great Job! The link worked. Now do me a favor and change your "size" to 1280 and repost it again. It's a little small.

 Thx

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#46) On March 24, 2009 at 12:45 PM, Mary953 (74.95) wrote:

Russ dear friend -

I am back from the first errand and knew I would see a post of youtubes or none at all as an all or nothing type answer or a mix. I anticipated the mix.  Glad I asked since I obviously misread the mood. 

I am relieved to finally see a chart I can read again.  The problem I had and didn't identify was that by breaking charts down to the minute by minute, I could no longer even read the fool things (too much notation)  I lost confidence in even my idea that I could figure out where we had been.  I am now realizing that I am in the "buy and hold for longer periods of time" camp.  I will be the sort of investor that uses the TA charts to help me gain a sense of what the market is doing and allows me to buy in at the lows and sell at the highs.

Actually, if I had tried to guess what you wanted, a chart is the Last thing I would have guessed.  I am, as a trader, probably going to be strictly a CAPS player.  The things that kept me at a no-loss stage yesterday - working with a plan, working with my husband as half of a team, not having any more dry powder than I can afford to lose without losing sleep - also mean that I will not be the one that books the mega-gains or losses.  I will rejoice for each of you however. 

I will be happy for every gain you book and proud of every lesson you learn.  I will welcome each person that decides to step forward and begin to join the conversation. I will be a bit sorry to lose the 'party' atmosphere because that has made this so much fun.  BTW, did you want your mom to join the high school team or was it a contribution to provide an atmosphere for everyone to gather and to know what was going on so you all spoke the same language.  I do have some difficulty keeping this stuff straight at times, so I ask - multiple times if needed, and always with the idea that there is someone else that might like the answer as much as I would.  (Am I the only one who sometimes loses a term or two here?)

Goodvibe - for me, "Ready, aim, fire" is not direction any more than "Here we go" or "Fasten your seat belt" or a real good piece of jazz to move forward on.  Part of a celebration, that's all - a mood of exuberance and joy, of "it's our time now".

(and Russ I am glad you believe in me.  I am so tired of this lingering bug that I could scream at times.  Being cheerful is an act of willpower that comes from refusing to be anything else.  Otherwise, I would happily go pull the covers over my head and sleep for a week if I could just breathe without coughing.  It will Not get the best of me - but I am tired of feeling tired and stupid.  I am going to hang on to the idea that there is a believer and friend somewhere out there.)

  --  Next errand  ===>

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#47) On March 24, 2009 at 1:00 PM, innerflame (< 20) wrote:

And a midday shout HI to you Mary,

You are not alone in your confusion and needing to ask more than one time. I really enjoy the "community" part of this blog also. I wasn't able to watch all the videos- a couple here and there were all I could manage- but I enjoyed them. So maybe we can still have that part but only one or two a day if someone has inspiration. For me ( and I am female)- I like the balance between numbers (left brain) and art/music( right brain)... otherwise I lose perspective. So I hope you will still add one here and there.

I also have been fighting the coughing bug. Today is finally better than yesterday- less coughing. It's been discouraging and I dont' think I've been ill as long as you. 

I like that others are now joining in on the charts (Russ-you certainly were the leading one). I've been reluctant to do my own charts but I will certainly give it a try.

Yesterday mid day-I got into bed and pulled the covers over my head. Seemed like the only thing I could do since I don't drink or do drugs. So I'm back to class today.

Best wishes on knocking that cold out of the ring! Mary- you have helped me stay with all this "numbers" stuff.  Stay strong!

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#48) On March 24, 2009 at 1:00 PM, Slash711 (< 20) wrote:

Columbia1

Your PBR chart in post #40 shows down wave #2 followed by two unlabeled peaks/valleys then the upwave #3. Can you explain why the two intermediate peaks/valleys wouldn't count as a wave? As a TA newbie they look perfectly good to me. ;) 

I'm new to TA but my Elliott Wave book is in the mail.

 

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#49) On March 24, 2009 at 1:02 PM, ayekappy (< 20) wrote:

 buildgreen (< 20) : Wow, that person is very bearish huh?  JPM @ $12 soon? How accurate have you found that person to be in the past?

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#50) On March 24, 2009 at 1:06 PM, Ecomike (< 20) wrote:

I have a suggestion or two. Why don't we set up 1 or 2 other blogs cross link to Gv's long term EW chart blog here. Let's move our non-GV chart discussions to those 2 other blogs. One for short term trading, with our efforts at short term charts posts, discussions about options trading, and strategies debates, then another where we post you tube and other non-tech chat for the GV community? Perhaps mary953 could host the non-tech chat blog, and Russ or one of our better traders could host the short term tech TA and ST charts blog, all cross linked to GV's main blog here.

 

What say yee? 

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#51) On March 24, 2009 at 1:06 PM, columbia1 wrote:

Russ- I am lost on that "Now do me a favor and change your "size" to 1280 and repost it again", which site are you talking about, stockcharts or flickr?

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#52) On March 24, 2009 at 1:12 PM, beyondanonda (26.45) wrote:

I like the concept of another blog (could be sponsered by anyone of us but this is GV;s communty) where we can really disect a given chart, perhaps one each day, such as columbias PBS chart.  Give a chance to go over diffferent ideas on trend lines, oscillators etc. Just my 2 cents.  As an optomist it sure feels nicer to be going long with just a few bear hedges than the other way around.

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#53) On March 24, 2009 at 1:14 PM, beyondanonda (26.45) wrote:

sorry, meant columbias PBR chart

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#54) On March 24, 2009 at 1:20 PM, columbia1 wrote:

Slash711 -Wave two was a corrective wave, Wave 3 was a impulse wave, Wave 3 contains a smaller wave i,ii,iii,iv,v., but over all the trend for wave 3 was a impulse wave. Those peaks and valleys are just part of smaller wave counts contained in wave 3. I hoped that helped, when you get the book you will quickly understand!!!

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#55) On March 24, 2009 at 1:20 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

Mary953 ~ Ahhhhhh Mary, I didn't mean that your only contribution to this community is that of knowlege of TA! You bring so many other things of value, don't think for a second any input you've put in was a waste. Keep in the loop and take what you will out of this community! I actually do enjoy the moments of emotion in the blogs weather it's happy or sad. It's a part of trading and ignoring emotion is the worst thing a trader can do IMHO. Acknowlege the feeling, accept it, understand it and rejoyce in having any emotion. I define the meaning of life as simple as this : Is simply to feel! It sounds stupid but what would life be if you felt nothing at all? Why do we look at stories of people who suffered in life and feel compelled.. because they were living. No, we do need to feel in this community, but in context of understanding the emotions not out-of-control emotions. We do need to share and feel together.

As GV says we stand together we survive together, that goes for our feelings as well.

Columbia~

Here is a shot at the PBR chart. It was a fun one play around with! I would wait for GV seal of approval though. The counts were tricky. I couldn't conclude wave 3 because wave 4 went into wave 1 land every time. Made it tricky.

 PBR

Enlarge

Hope this helped

I'm working on an exit strategy and its hard to figure out. I'm still holding SDS at this point.

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#56) On March 24, 2009 at 1:20 PM, Mary953 (74.95) wrote:

Ecomike -

I like the idea with the slight change that the 'hosting' be a group sort of thing.  Not necesary to  have A single host on One dedicated blog when there are so very many that can do all jobs!  With the entire community crossing back and forth between them.

Other thoughts?

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#57) On March 24, 2009 at 1:20 PM, ayekappy (< 20) wrote:

Usually I have some music in my head related to the market, today it's the "Filet of Fish" song from that McDonald's commercial.

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#58) On March 24, 2009 at 1:29 PM, oversea (< 20) wrote:

Anibas : I second what you wrote.

Ecomike : I liked your suggestion. This community is a great gift for us by GV and even if, I'm afraid (but I do understand him), he will slowly drift away from us we should stay togher to beat the market in these dire times. This is the place were we can meet discuss our plans, projects and fears too (why not, fear is a very logical behaviour). Some of us live in places where there are very few people who would like or who are willing to discuss investment problems. It would be a shame to waste all this after all what we learned.

Regards

  

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#59) On March 24, 2009 at 1:30 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

Ecomike ~ I have had this plan to open another blog for a "beginners" type class so all the new people to EW could have assistance. I've even started a "cheat-sheet" of my notes from the EW book.

I'm simply not their yet. I havn't even fished the book..lol Read my rant from last night to get a clearer picture of where I see myself going. It will take time, but I agree that we may want to break up the forum at some point. This community is growing by the day!

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#60) On March 24, 2009 at 1:36 PM, innerflame (< 20) wrote:

Great idea Russ! Even in dance classes - we have the Levels 1, 2 and 3- or whatever you choose to call them. So those learning the language- and having a place to ask embarrassing questions (yes- that's a real emotion too)- could start perhaps in your blog- and just watch the others with more experience groups -from the sidelines.

The hardest part of all of this for me has been dealing with my fear of losing $$ and missing out on gains. I know how to make money and lose money- it's those darned emotions that go along with that.

 

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#61) On March 24, 2009 at 1:38 PM, tahoestock (30.24) wrote:

Mary… 

Couldn’t help but to pipe in to give you some encouragement:  All of us have our strengths to add to this community.  For me you add the trading questions and comments most have difficulty with….emotions.  It’s probably the most important element in becoming a successful trader, and one that perhaps needs to be addressed in these posts at some time. 

If I can say it this way without offending:  the emotional journey you so eloquently express in your posts is what most of us are experiencing but have difficulty putting into words.  The transparency you reveal with your questions, frustrations and lack of understanding is, at least for me, as great a service to this community as all the TA (and other stuff).  All is needed for the trading journey. 

Please keep with us in the way you always have…with questions, comments, reprimands, anything you think would help.  And keep the videos coming; life is still much more than trading.  One last thing:  I’m sure it’s the sickness speaking but you are not stupid (but certainly tired I expect).  We all do stupid things.   I have witnessed your intelligence and communication skills throughout the last several months; I, and a many others, have great respect for you and what you bring to this community. 

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#62) On March 24, 2009 at 1:39 PM, buildgreen (< 20) wrote:

ayekappy

I just started reading his stuff. Actually from someone else here. He is a super bear. Thats what i keep running into.. same charts with 2 practioners comming up with alternate readings.  

But if his chart works.. the original count holds and shorts will be uber rewarded. 

 

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3271030

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#63) On March 24, 2009 at 1:40 PM, columbia1 wrote:

Russ- You are right, wave 3 has not finished because in the sub-counts of wave 3, my wave iv  overlaps wave i. I like your count!!!

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#64) On March 24, 2009 at 1:42 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

Columbie~ I mean the size from stockcharts.com under chart attributes

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#65) On March 24, 2009 at 1:47 PM, goldminingXpert (29.57) wrote:

Blew out the last chunk of FAS at 7.16. I'm almost flat now, just a couple small trades to unwind. Let's see what happens.

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#66) On March 24, 2009 at 2:11 PM, arboretum (28.38) wrote:

I'm on the shortish side of flat still. Irritated that I lost 1% yesterday when I could have made 20%, but I got it wrong and survived. I agree with GMX that flat or cash might be wise right at the moment, but I see some signals that we might be turning today.

Very nice double top on GE today which is looking very overbought, and has had a big rally despite taking two downgrades in the last couple of days. GE still has enough market cap to make a dent in the Dow if it takes a dive.

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#67) On March 24, 2009 at 2:12 PM, innerflame (< 20) wrote:

I have a daytrading ( or not) question for anyone interested in answering:

When you are watching daily stock prices- what indicators (MACD,Stochastics) are  preferred? I like the MACD because it makes the most sense but I'm just starting to check out all the other goodies on my trading site(Scottrade).

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#68) On March 24, 2009 at 2:13 PM, murugan2 (32.70) wrote:

Buildgreen #43

I posted a link to that chart yesterday and got no comment from anyone.  So I wanted to say to you - I'm watching that chart also. Might be fooling myself into feeling better about my shorts, but it seems like a possible scenario still...

ralphmachio #37

Dont get too down on yourself, there are a lot of people in the same or worse boat as you.  I'm hoping for a downward correction soon - but who knows?  I just dont see that much upside risk in the short term in the charts to dump these positions even though they are way past the point of sanity for most people.  I have been burned by giving up too soon in the past.  Looking at the charts I believe we are due for a retracement sometime soon.  Check out the charts referenced in post #43.

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#69) On March 24, 2009 at 2:18 PM, Ecomike (< 20) wrote:

I see discussion going on about my sugestion. No time to read it and reply right  now, but to clarify, my intent is not to breaks us up, but to make it easier for GV to help us by having a division of the current blog into 3 blogs, which is something he tried earlier to do. GV does not want to discuss, read or recomend or reply to a huge list of individual stocks, options, short term charts, etc discussion with in this group, but many of us do want those discussions and debates, and the post volume of such is consuming time he does not have.

GV could limit, like he has requested, his primary blog to EW theory and long term charts. Then he, or we could have a second blog, daily page for all the TA EW short term and trading and strategy discussions, that GV could visit when he has time and is borred, but the rest of us could manage ourselves. THe tird could be the who are we blog GV sponsored, with a link to a who we are discusion blog. THe point is to break up these huge daily pages into more a more managable page size.  

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#70) On March 24, 2009 at 2:27 PM, MastiffFool (< 20) wrote:

oversea ,

 This community is a great gift for us by GV and even if, I'm afraid (but I do understand him), he will slowly drift away from us we should stay togher to beat the market in these dire times.

What you stated above is the only right to happen in the days,weeks, months ahead. We have to learn to walk on our own at some point. I've been primarily a daytrader so I know first hand that it takes a lot of concentration to watch the small moves in the market during the day. I think that GV makes trades on this basis as well as what he's teaching us here, watching the larger trends. Because of this I feel quite certain that GV has lost trading opportunities & profits while he's been holding our hands. But that's the kind of person GV is.

GV, thank you so much for all you've provided us here in your blogs! 

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#71) On March 24, 2009 at 2:43 PM, MastiffFool (< 20) wrote:

#67) On March 24, 2009 at 2:12 PM, innerflame (< 20) wrote:

I have a daytrading ( or not) question for anyone interested in answering:

When you are watching daily stock prices- what indicators (MACD,Stochastics) are  preferred? I like the MACD because it makes the most sense but I'm just starting to check out all the other goodies on my trading site(Scottrade).

innerflame, there are many ways to day trade. Check out elitetrader.com and look at some of the journals in the forums. You will get a lot of good ideas there.

I like to follow the trend which ever way it going. The trend is your friend. I also use Stochastics, momentum, RSI. I find one of the most important indicators I use is Level II Depth Chart, paying close attention to the ticker and volume.

Even in short timeframe daytrading, you should keep a close eye on support and resistance levels.

I hope that helps.

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#72) On March 24, 2009 at 2:47 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

Ok, I think it's time for some commic relief. I'm debating on my position and just needed to think of something else so I did something crazy. I took the last 3 months daily price and made a + or - day. I then made a negitive day a 1 and positive day a 0. I tried to see some pattern and didn't see anything...lol

Graphed it and that didn't do anything... then I broke things up in 8 days and checked binary 0 and 1 to see if it spelt something. Sure enough the last eight days in the binary letter for "H"??? WHAT?? I just had to continue and the next 8 days was "E"??? ok, so this is where it gets crazy... I went back 8 more and it was "L" and 8 more is "L" again.....

Ok, so 666 was the bottom and if we spell the market backwords in binary it's HELL!

Just kidding.... The first letter was infact "H" but the second 8 wasn't an alphebet letter... But that was my first though when it was "H"...lol

Ok, I know i'm crazy you don't have to remind me...hehe

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#73) On March 24, 2009 at 2:54 PM, Cojex1 (< 20) wrote:

Is there a reason why FAS or FAZ are never charted here?  THey are talked about a lot so I am just curious.  Do the principles of EW not apply to these ETF's due to the fact that they are not stocks?

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#74) On March 24, 2009 at 2:56 PM, innerflame (< 20) wrote:

That was great Mastiff- I'll check all that stuff out as time allows. I generally have a good idea of support and resistance- seems I've had more of a tough time with the trend- but then that's no surprise...

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#75) On March 24, 2009 at 2:57 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

Cojex1 ~ FAS and FAZ don't have enough history to get a good chart count. Same with SDS.

Its better to use XLF instead to get better direction and understanding, just x3 it and you got your FAS/FAZ

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#76) On March 24, 2009 at 2:59 PM, herztical (28.14) wrote:

#49

If JPM hits 12, I'm buying.  As I said on other GV blogs / posts, shorting the financials is yesterdays trade...going against the firepower of the US govt doesn't make for a good trade. They will do (and have done) everything and I mean everything to make them profitable. I'm not saying all banks are good from here on out, I'm saying a sector short isn't going to pay from a risk/reward point of view. Play as you will, but my 2 cents tells me we are going to see some upside surprises.

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#77) On March 24, 2009 at 3:50 PM, MastiffFool (< 20) wrote:

Hey anyone, it looks like we broke the trendline that GV spoke about this morning. When can we decide we are in Wave 2 down?

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#78) On March 24, 2009 at 3:55 PM, ayekappy (< 20) wrote:

Ah gotta love those last 5 minutes mega dives.  JPM going dooowwwwnnn.

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#79) On March 24, 2009 at 3:58 PM, ayekappy (< 20) wrote:

herztical (22.57):  My only thing with financials, is which ones will survive, which will survive but have shareholder equity wiped out or diluted, and which ones will be sacrificed so that the others may live?  Which will get good prices for their toxic assets and which ones will get lowballed into nothingness?

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#80) On March 24, 2009 at 3:58 PM, columbia1 wrote:

Murugan2 and buildgreen, Here is the chart that their are talking about, it does map out a very bearish forecast. This is not my chart, I am just posting it to make it easier for everyone to see.

ENLARGE

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#81) On March 24, 2009 at 3:58 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

Yes, I believe 812 was a support line. 804 next one...

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#82) On March 24, 2009 at 3:59 PM, ayekappy (< 20) wrote:

If we finish just below 804.30 do we get a prize?  Ha ha just kidding. :)

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#83) On March 24, 2009 at 4:03 PM, Kenaida22 (< 20) wrote:

Anyone else pick up Faz today?

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#84) On March 24, 2009 at 4:05 PM, arboretum (28.38) wrote:

Looks like we are in for a good old-fashioned financial bloodbath tomorrow. Can you believe it's about three weeks since we had one last? My FAZ finger is itching.

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#85) On March 24, 2009 at 4:09 PM, MastiffFool (< 20) wrote:

Thanks Russ,

I guess I'll wait to do some shorting after we break 804.30 tomorrow if the volume is supporting more down movement and HOPE (sorry GV, I know hope has no place here) that I don't lose my butt on shorting again! :)

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#86) On March 24, 2009 at 4:20 PM, Tutom (< 20) wrote:

Would have liked to see us break 804 today (still got my shorts), but at least volume picked up on exchanges. Volume was surprising low yesterday.

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#87) On March 24, 2009 at 4:22 PM, ralphmachio (26.18) wrote:

herztical, I do not question the ability of the press to overcome the truth, nor do I really want to discuss the value of our financial institutions, the question is, if the US buys 36% of C, and has a decent amount of all the other majors, is it not sort of penny pushing to tell us how valuable these institutions are, and then to have the press agree?  Isn't it like one tentacle agreeing with the other tentacle?  From my observation, every time the government intervenes, it starts as a rally, and then somewhere about three days in, reality sets in, and people are left asking, hey was that such a great move?  This, although larger in scale, is not much different, and may last longer, but it too shall fail, in this nubie's opinion.

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#88) On March 24, 2009 at 4:32 PM, innerflame (< 20) wrote:

Now that was interesting.

So is it the concensus that tomorrow is a down day? It seems like 804 is the next resistance- then 770?  And Mastiff- what tells you that volume is "enough"?  (See Russ- we really need that beginner's blog).

From my limited experience the last couple months- nothing as followed any absolute rules- too much manipulation behind the green curtain.( Don't touch that curtain- The Wizard of OZ says!- Ignore that man back there..)

Thanks for all the charts guys..

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#89) On March 24, 2009 at 4:32 PM, buildgreen (< 20) wrote:

mucho gracias columbia1.

 

paints a nice picture for those short out there. 

Question to all-- how does the overnight/ pre market trade effect etfs at the opening bell? 

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#90) On March 24, 2009 at 4:42 PM, apoorinvestor (< 20) wrote:

tomorrow a down day? jeeze, i hope so.

 

i only have one stock, altria, i sold it at $16.65 and then it zooms up to $17.20!

I wish i knew how to buy low, sell high. :(

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#91) On March 24, 2009 at 4:43 PM, Mary953 (74.95) wrote:

I have to suppose this is going to be one more disconnected post,  as I haven't checked to see how the stock market ended the day yet.  The indications above (drops, bears, bloodbaths and all) don't seem all that promising.  Still, thanks for the encouraging words.  I actually learn a great deal more from watching and questioning others than from reading and I know that some things make instant sense, music and internet searching for example, while others don't - anything math.  The emotion is simply a matter of allowing my words to not be so edited that I beat the spirit from them entirely.  I leave them human so that others who are also confused, frustrated, turned around, or just uncertain can realize that getting started early doesn't hold the key.  The magic door is not found in one blog or another.  I have been through all of them.  It isn't even a matter of once-heard, always-remembered.  Even a cave-(wo)man can do it perhaps, but only a cave-(wo)man with patient friends.  Sometimes it helps to recall that this is not a simple thing that we do or attempt to do.  Slow is a good starting speed.

Might I make one other suggestion?  Somewhere this week, we lost a word and name connection and got a replacement.  I would like to remove the new and return to the old.  I appreciate the contributions of "GoodVibe-Teacher"  but, if I must choose either one or the other, if I cannot have both, I will choose to say goodbye to the teacher and keep the trusted and familiar "GoodVibe-My Friend."  I would want to have you all first as friends and only then as fellow participants in a learning community where we all have something to teach and to learn.  Let us allow GoodVibe to be our friend and fellow student as well, relieving him of having to always be "on" as the only teacher.

Mary

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#92) On March 24, 2009 at 4:43 PM, herztical (28.14) wrote:

 ayekappy

Agree, but the markets have allready priced in the bad across the board, call it guilt by association / sector. Yes, the ones with toxic stuff are well known (C, MER>BAC, WB>WFC, WM>JPM) will be hurt.  However, recent fed moves made bond portfolios of good MBSs jump, refis booming, and cost of funds (ALM) close to 0. This may even offset the junk writedowns at say a WFC/BAC. Throw some accounting changes in the mix and you have 4 reasons not to short vs. the writedowns which will probably now be allowed to be taken over many years (my speculation anyway).  Last and this quarter may also be kitchen sink quarters since their stocks don't get any credit.

C in my opinion is screwed but it allready prices like an option. So from a fundamental point of view, I can find better shorts elsewhere. 

(I know someones going to chime in and say, yeah but WFC is down 10% today, that's a pretty good short...I say no that's a pretty good trade

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#93) On March 24, 2009 at 4:44 PM, MastiffFool (< 20) wrote:

innerflame,

And GV, correct me if I'm wrong, a low volume day is bad for the bulls. In short timeframe scalping, look to the Market Depth chart Level II to see if there is more volume and pricing trying to push prices up or down.

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#94) On March 24, 2009 at 4:46 PM, binve (< 20) wrote:

Hey buildgreen,

Personally, I have learned to ignore after-hours/pre-market. The volume is too low to give any meaningful signals and it is filled with a lot of manipulation. Also, I tend to ignore the first 15-30 minutes of trading. 

Just my opinion though :)

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#95) On March 24, 2009 at 4:51 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

"So is it the concensus that tomorrow is a down day?" 

The $SPX chart above indicates that we broke the middle blue line down today but need to break out of the channel down to confirm the next wave and a move down.

VIX also appears to continue to hug the 50 day which GV mentioned is Bearish. I'm uncertain why it's Bullish to return to the triangle when so many are waiting to see the VIX in the 20s and 30s to invest again but I'm still learning.

I did manage to pull the trigger on a mid-day sell today for a nice profit. I'm not a day trader and have the worst time taking profits. Your advise rang in my ears about taking profits and made the decision easier. Thanks!!! 

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#96) On March 24, 2009 at 4:54 PM, herztical (28.14) wrote:

#87...and none of my opinions are from the media; they are from real life what I see going on with my own eyes.  People spending less, saving more, and paying down debt from CEOs to janitors (no offense to janitors you could be the next CEO). 

So let's bookmark this post and come back in 6 months and see what happened maybe I'm wrong.  Also interesting to retro-check GVs charts as well!

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#97) On March 24, 2009 at 4:54 PM, 123spot (< 20) wrote:

Coming in to vote for organic growth within this blog i.e. no splits, no limits to conversation within CVs "guidelines" unless he changes them. I can go to a million sites to just look at charting. Only this site has the "renaissance factor" that keeps me in. Human diversity, the integration of pure logic with poetry/song (some damn good videos, Mary and CV)/ Shakesperian drama (life over the Rubicon sure looks good- for now- but we are warned by the ending of the play that a dagger in the heart of a chart can happen, too, so prepare/plan- best done with the sharing of many eyes, minds, hearts ). Even an occasional lesson on the care and feeding of children is interesting to me (no children) because I see how all of our plans must take into account many personal variables that alter the way I measure and adjust my plans against yours.

Binve#18 my plan: TA used to follow my "better angels"1) I will go long SOS partly at 778, the rest at 750 if we get there (thanks Anchak#24 ) and hold until 840-sell 1/2, at 1,000 sell rest. 2) still holding all my longs form up to 14,000-I'm gonna keep em till they pay me or someone I love when I'm gone ( I'd like to see a 90 year TA chart for where we ought to go from here after 10 years of flatline, my guess is above 15,000 sometime in the next 10 years. 3) adding MF small-caps at each pullback along the way and will sell 1/2 os anything that doubles and put it in a money market acct for play- not trading.

Anyone?everyone- what online discount broker are you using and why? Problems?advantages? Fees? Length of time without problems?

The piers are pummelled by the waves;

In a lonely field of rain

Lashes an abandoned train;

Outlaws fill the mountain caves.

 

Fantastic grow the evening gowns;

Agents of the Fisc pursue

Absconding tax-defaulters through

The sewers of provincial towns.

 

Private rites of magic send

The teple prostitutes to sleep;

All the literati keep

An imaginary friend.                                          from

The Fall Of Rome, W.H. Auden

Peace

 

 

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#98) On March 24, 2009 at 4:59 PM, ayekappy (< 20) wrote:

I like the ultrabear's SPX chart, it reminds me of my prediction I made a few months ago, albeit reality started a bit lower on the y axis.

 

Enlarge 

Anyone else think that we may go back down to have a nice bear rally that lasts from about May until Sept, touches approx SnP 1000ish and then back into doom and gloom land by next October?

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#99) On March 24, 2009 at 5:04 PM, Slash711 (< 20) wrote:

Apoorinvestor #90

I feel your pain. Sometimes I think that I, alone, have the power to make the market pop just by selling. LOL

Your down day is coming,

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#100) On March 24, 2009 at 5:04 PM, 123spot (< 20) wrote:

Coming in to vote for organic growth within this blog i.e. no splits, no limits to conversation within CVs "guidelines" unless he changes them. I can go to a million sites to just look at charting. Only this site has the "renaissance factor" that keeps me in. Human diversity, the integration of pure logic with poetry/song (some damn good videos, Mary and CV)/ Shakesperian drama (life over the Rubicon sure looks good- for now- but we are warned by the ending of the play that a dagger in the heart of a chart can happen, too, so prepare/plan- best done with the sharing of many eyes, minds, hearts ). Even an occasional lesson on the care and feeding of children is interesting to me (no children) because I see how all of our plans must take into account many personal variables that alter the way I measure and adjust my plans against yours.

Binve#18 my plan: TA used to follow my "better angels"1) I will go long SOS partly at 778, the rest at 750 if we get there (thanks Anchak#24 ) and hold until 840-sell 1/2, at 1,000 sell rest. 2) still holding all my longs form up to 14,000-I'm gonna keep em till they pay me or someone I love when I'm gone ( I'd like to see a 90 year TA chart for where we ought to go from here after 10 years of flatline, my guess is above 15,000 sometime in the next 10 years. 3) adding MF small-caps at each pullback along the way and will sell 1/2 os anything that doubles and put it in a money market acct for play- not trading.

Anyone?everyone- what online discount broker are you using and why? Problems?advantages? Fees? Length of time without problems?

 

 

The piers are pummelled by the waves;

In a lonely field of rain

Lashes an abandoned train;

Outlaws fill the mountain caves.

 

Fantastic grow the evening gowns;

Agents of the Fisc pursue

Absconding tax-defaulters through

The sewers of provincial towns.

 

Private rites of magic send

The temple prostitutes to sleep;

All the literati keep

An imaginary friend.                                          from

The Fall Of Rome, W.H. Auden

Peace

 

 

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#101) On March 24, 2009 at 5:32 PM, herztical (28.14) wrote:

#98 ayekappy

I think your wave 3 down isn't quite bearish enough...I think it should go into negative. Yes everyone, that's right, companies will give us their stock for free and pay us just to be shareholders! LOL

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#102) On March 24, 2009 at 5:33 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

ayekappy ~ Your chart doesn't work, that was the original plan before 804 broke. Wave 4 goes into wave 1 and that can't happen. But for argument sake if the market dropped tomorrow to 600 lets say the count would be wave 3 (600) with one more down wave to go.

Nice end to the day. I hope tomorrow bring more destruction to the market!

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#103) On March 24, 2009 at 5:50 PM, murugan2 (32.70) wrote:

Please excuse this really basic question: how do you imbed a chart in your post so it is visible and not a link?  thanks.

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#104) On March 24, 2009 at 5:57 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

~Mur - We use Flicker and when you goto view page code is their to link in a blog.

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#105) On March 24, 2009 at 6:01 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Daily comments:

1. I really appreciate your kind words and graciously giving me the time and space to rejuvenate and balance my time. My loved one really appreciates it and thank you a lot for that.

2. Let us put this to rest. I am not going anywhere unless you want me to. I know, I know. I love you all too, guys. I promised myself when I started blogging here to stick to it until I see it through. Winners never quit! So my promise to you now is that I’ll not stop blogging the way I do now to at least next December. One year from when I joined Caps, then we will see if I am wanted anymore or my job is done.

I’ll just mange my time and energy by posting market direction as “GoodVibe market vibes” on a weekly basis and I will update the charts when needed in the same blog and will answer your question about the overall market direction. Also, keep those live charts on your radar. Probably they will be updated even before I update them on the blog. I will also comment once or twice a day. Probably at the start and at the end of the day with no weekend comments or blogs. I’ll have different set of blogs, which will be devoted to TA class as “GoodVibe class”, and other sets to individual charts, thoughts, etc. I have many ideas to try to communicate all I learned so far through my trading life in hope it adds to you. So the best is yet to come. Stay tuned!

3. Eco posted today another great idea for us to expand our community. I think it’s marvelous. If I may suggest that Mary and Russ (if they are willing to manage that) to open two different blogs as many as they see fit (daily, weekly, ..) to address our expanded needs. The first will be for Russ where he will show others how to build a chart, arrange it, how he overcame his first challenges when he started his first chart in very short time. I'll be there too. Russ, you don’t need to be right or know everything but if you have the time I am sure you will be able to help people overcome their inhabitation to build a chart. If you do this, you will help me hit the ground running when I start the class blogs. No rush! When you have the time.

Mary on the other hand can start a blog where we can gather to talk, socialize, help each others learn, link to different blogs or sites that can not only help us financially but also spiritually, physically, emotionally, etc. We can post music, poets, photography, or whatever we think worth sharing with others. We can talk about our kids, pets, or our nosy neighbour. We can post charts and discuss strategies like binve's perfect post #18.

Also if I may suggest not out of vanity but to be easily spotted to name the first [GoodVibe chart lab – “Russ to add any title he sees fit”] and the second [GoodVibe lounge – Mary can add any title she sees fit”]. I believe now "GoodVibe" as a person’s ID has grown to be the community we built. It represents our characters and intentions. It doesn’t belong to one person any more but belong to all of us. So what do you think Mary, Russ, and all of you? At least let’s try and see.

Now to the comments:

#2 Ken – No exception! Sorry. But here’s what makes me really wonder. I and many others are warning against Ultra ETFs and yesterday’s action prove how lately they can be but we still find people who do know nothing about option still want to trade them. Trade spy, QQQQ, DIA, etc. to learn and you will be happy with the return. Unless you know what you’re doing, trading is not a quick rich but a coffin for your hard earned money. Don’t run before you walk and don’t walk before you crawl. Please, guys who trade this stuff, stop posting that you trade them otherwise people will think it’s an easy thing. You sure can trade them. Actually I adore them but keep this for those who understand options and most of us are not there yet. By the way, you can discuss stocks or trading style (on the other blogs that we will hopefully open) like Mark did in #7. It’s fine; just make sure not to spam us or give unsupported analysis and try to understand that you’re speaking to different people. The more trusted you are, the more burdens you will have. We will also hold you accountable. For me I’ll refrain from doing so or otherwise I will have to answer all of you and that will take a lot of time and will burden my thinking going right and left. Now and then, I’ll post an individual chart or come and say I put a buy or sell on this or that. This is as much personal you will get from me.

# 6 Dare – I believe a lot of people are rooting for knocking down the HypnoToad more than pushing me in the top ten. :) I don’t know what the toad feels about that? It’s a bad omen; it’s 2012 for the toad. Everybody, take cover; buy bullets, spam, seeds, and fire on sight! The toad is going to get knocked from the top 10. Oh, boy! The end of Caps! :)

#9 Gemini – No, I don’t believe! Any actions in the market including news are part of the waves but don’t influence the waves’ pattern. Waves will shape their proper formation no matter what. It takes a lot of watching to believe this one.

#10  Jacaris – Sometimes right, sometimes wrong or early, but always honest. I hope I will not make more than three of these mistakes per year and I will be able to correct them all when they happen. I like McHugh but things are not going his way in the last 2 months. It’s the fives challenge. He straightens and streamlined his analysis with this bottom. That said, he’s highly recommended but that tell us you should never follow anyone blindly no matter how good they are. All of us make mistakes. Take other inputs, filter them, add them to your homework and then go and do the best of your ability to make that profitable trade and never compare yourself to others.  

#16 Dan – The statement is correct but it doesn’t fit your assumption though time might come if the government really takes over everything (hope not), then waves restricted by such edict should not be allowed to register. We are not there yet.

#21 Mary – There were two monks walking to their monastery up the mountain. They met an old lady who was trying to cross a muddy street. She asked for help to carry her across. One of the monks said that this is against his status but the second carried her and then kept walking. Two hours later, the monk who refused to help asked the other; “How can you do such a thing? You know this wasn’t against our status?” The monk looked at him, smile, and said; “Brother, I dropped the lady hours ago, are you still carrying her?” :) You didn’t do anything wrong my dear and I told you so last night. :)

# 25 bermuda – You are welcome! When you have the time, will you tell me who are you?

# Master jedi; aka. FB. -  I know man. All my life! They knock me down when I am a bear if they are foolishly bullish and they ridicule me when I am bull when it feels to them like the end of the world. I noticed here in Caps that doom and gloom players are not able to see the trees from the forest and once I post anything bullish, I feel them fuming! I read your last two posts good stuff. It was funny to see that the offender who was the reason to post your first blog just commented after you. GMX – Are you trolling the guy? :) I see you also posted another doom and gloom post calling to buy puts and guns. I know you see the trees unlike the rest. Nice to see you both posting here in this blog.

# 39 Columbia – another smile on my face! But both you and Russ are not correct count wise. Give me a live link and I will show you the correct count.

#37 ralph – another reason for why we say don’t trade ultra. That said, looking back is not the way to looking forward. If needed, you know what you have to do. Live and learn! For Timewave Zero, which I can’t lay claim to understand it but just to comment on your surprise why the dip didn’t crash. Because it’s a dip! Sharp dips in EWP means the end of a down cycle (uphill from there) and the crust of a wave means the end of an up cycle (downhill from there). This is why they say; “Sell hope and buy despair.” People get it the other way; run for the hills when we are too low and buy more when we are at the top. Does that make sense to you? And because Timewave Zero ends 2012 (another 2012), I believe (as the case with 2012 doom and gloom predictions) it’s actually a start for a huge advancement in human progress but we have to go sharp correction first and a lot of pain. As the great depression brought great inventions and progress, this one also will bring even greater progress. It’s nature's law. Nothing progress without setbacks. The greater the set back, the greater is the progress. 

#44 anibas – Sure! That’s very important topic that I will have to reflect on a little bit more and put it in words. You will sure get a good blog about that in the class. It is a must. For now, I’ll sum it in two words; “greed – fear”

#67 flame – you should use at least three indicators. The more is the better. Check my live charts for the one I use.

#75 Russ – Agree until you said to cojex; “just x3 it and you got your FAS/FAZ”. No! It doesn’t work this way. There’s no relation between XLF and FAS/FAZ. This I guess why people are thinking about Ultra as regular ETF. Ultra are options and I never charted options because I think you can’t. Ultra ETF can be charted, I believe but most of them really need some long term and none of them have good amount of data. You can chart ETFs like SPY, QQQQ, DIA, IWM, etc. very easily and accurately.

#77 Mast – We did break the blue support but not green yet. Currently around 785 - 795

#80 Columbia – This count is valid if you start wave 4 from where you did and not from where it should be (from where you put 2 of 5). By the way I annotated the new chart with the standard number annotation. Check them as well as the book to correct the numbering. Someone asked me this before and I hope he’s pleased now with the new count. Only the circled numbers are not available and I use {} instead.

# 93 Mast – Rising prices on lower volume is “bearish bear trap”. Rising prices on higher volume is “bullish bulldozer”. Falling prices on lower volume is “consolidation”. Falling prices on higher volume is “don’t catch a falling knife unless you know how it’s done”.

#95 IICX – higher VIX, lower market. Lower VIX, higher market. And I updated the live VIX chart. Check it from the post above.

#97 123spot – spot on! This is why I am hooked on you guys!

Okay! Now to my workout! Wish me well. This one will be tough. :)

See you all tomorrow morning. Be happy, do good, and the rest will be taken care of.

GoodVibe

 

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#106) On March 24, 2009 at 6:09 PM, ayekappy (< 20) wrote:

Russ and Hertz: Sorry for the confusion, it's not my chart... it's the permabear's chart from an earlier link. GV is guilty of ridiculously low pointing lines too. :)

 

Murugan: You can use HTML here... I use [img src=] but with the greater than and less than symbols.

 

Russ: Well it looks like Wave 5 down has its own 5 blue little waves and we're on wave 5 of that wave 5 and then a new wave 1 upslope begins? I mean, GV did say Wave 5s are tricky, so why is 804.30, the Rubicon, so written in stone, especially on a double wave 5.  Wow jeez I am confused now.

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#107) On March 24, 2009 at 6:12 PM, Mary953 (74.95) wrote:

Apoorinvestor - I have learned a few things of late. 

"Watch.  Stocks drop immediately after you get the online broker confirmation that your 'buy' order has been filled and you are the owner of ... shares of xxx - wait for it - There - xxx just dropped to a level unheard of in modern times."

"Wow, It hasn't moved for weeks!  Can you do it again?"

"Got another quarter?"

You lose more money if you can get money into your brokerage account easily than if you have to make an effort to restock your funds.  If commission fees make you cringe, you probably are not going to jump in and out without some idea of what you are getting and why.  My 'easy to get to' funds have high commissions.  My low fee funds are harder to replenish.  It works for me, but then I don't have that IRON Patience thing going yet.  Eventually I hope to have my money easy to get to and my inner-broker (BUY-BUY-BUY/SELL-SELL-SELL) firmly under control  For now, I cheat.  ;-)

123spot - A technical blog without fun is like ..........technical.  Also, music helps me calm down or gives me an avenue for my frustration, joy, stress, excitement, all of my shared moods. I was headed into my file of rock and roll for something to shake of the day (around here it is overcast with a thunderstorm rolling in), and I saw something new.  We are a bunch of odd birds here aren't we?  All of CAPS screaming about whether TA even exists and we are here working away at it.  Even when we come out on the wrong side of the day, we still go back, knowing that the charts are not the problem, because they are just too close to be circumstance time and again.  So for the odd birds that gather here and laugh when the rest of the world dresses in decorum and harumps while they frown at us -

Here's to us, friends! 

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#108) On March 24, 2009 at 6:25 PM, ayekappy (< 20) wrote:

I went back and looked at why he kept the wave count like he did.  Well apparently Wave 4s are not supposed to interfere with the bottoms of Wave 1s, which in this case was 805.22.  My guess at why he kept the wave count like that is because on that day that it went down to 805 was after a long weekend and possibly a short squeeze?  I'm just guessing that he was considering the two days around that 805 day, 850 and 840. ?   

Shrug, that's my guess... in another chart he discounted a wave ending because of a short squeeze.

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#109) On March 24, 2009 at 6:32 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

Thanks for the VIX explanation GV and the rule of thumb related to never allowing profits to slip away!!!

I thought everyone would appreciate the warning if they missed this:

Cramer just announced this evening on CNBC that all his hedge fund buds are sweating over their funds lack of Banking stocks and are about to "buy, buy, buy" to the end of next week. More then likely, they will try shorting them down to a buy level but may buy them outright. This could make FAS and FAZ extremely volatile for the next few days or weeks (not that they aren't already but...).

Best, IIcx 

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#110) On March 24, 2009 at 6:50 PM, ayekappy (< 20) wrote:

Russ:  Found it, on his 60 minute chart he says yesterday was not considered a breakout because it was the result of an end of day short squeeze.  Any validity to that?  I suppose I can see how if it's 100% true it was just a short squeeze that that might be valid, but then again we didn't close under 805 today either.

 

 It was crossing the rare expanding diagonal bear market triangle too for whatever that means. What does that mean anyways?

 

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3271030&cmd=show[s163908739]&disp=O

 

I just realized the comments don't show up when I copy the page, so see for yourself on page 2, the 60 minute SPX chart. 

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#111) On March 24, 2009 at 6:50 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

~GV, here is the link to PBR chart. XLF, ETFs, I understand.

I will make an obligation to everyone. I need to finish taxes this week (shoebox full of "dollartree" reciepts for 2008 candle stuff....sigh) and I will dedicate myself to finishing the EWbook by the end of the following week with my notes (I think this will be the first lab) I will start the GV - chart lab at that point. 

I'll be looking forward to the "CAPS worst speller achivement." Yes I think they should make one just for me!

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#112) On March 24, 2009 at 6:51 PM, herztical (28.14) wrote:

IIcx  

Cramer just announced this evening on CNBC that all his hedge fund buds are sweating over their funds lack of Banking stocks and are about to "buy, buy, buy" to the end of next week

Cramer just said this?  Damn... my #76/92/96 might be wrong now! LOL

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#113) On March 24, 2009 at 6:54 PM, Mary953 (74.95) wrote:

 Guys,

Thanks to Ilcx, but I am going to live up to the granny avatar beside my name (No I don't look like that) and suggest that Cramer was not actually a guest in our dens just now.  A lot of people saw him say that and. at a guess, a good number of them are thinking "buy the rumor, and I've got a hot rumor."

If you want to buy a bank stock, go ahead and try it, but don't go for the ETF's and Ultras on Cramer's word.  It's a just in case, because I am betting that Cramer's buds are actually back there whispering, 'time to sell to the suckers.'  I am Not long on trust where any of these people are concerned.  I would rather lose an opportunity than lose capital.  I'm playing devil's advocate here for the reason that, if you are hesitant at all, and if you cannot really afford to lose (like anything in your retirement fund), then hold off and choose something more certain.  The pres is on at 8.  Maybe he will add to the matter.

Make haste slowly at first.  Crawl first, then walk, then run.

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#114) On March 24, 2009 at 7:08 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

ayekappy ~ Bingo with the wave 4/1 rule. Wave 4 cannot entire wave 1. End-of-day squeeze...I don't know about that, but I assume 804 was a trigger to buy for some as an up trend. I think as the momement like a rubber band moving accross a pegged wall. Some pegs are bigger/stiffer than others but when you put enough preasure on the rubbber band it will snap and you get the fast bounce up/down. Anyway, just an analogy.

Mary~ looks like we are gonna be partners in crime!! Weeeee!!! I have a good opening (off-topic) for you. I dare you to read my very first blog... I think you will truly understand how crazy I am...lol

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#115) On March 24, 2009 at 7:12 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

That's a very cleaver trick for buying and selling Mary. I've noticed the same thing when buying and selling stocks. If you were going to buy a 1,000 shares, do you buy 100, 100, and 800 to capture the best price for the 800?

Cramer didn't say anything about FAS and FAZ. I was just concerned that the fund interest in bank stocks might give false readings to the charting and trigger someone to buy the short 3x when the market is likely to trend the other way.

It could be a great opportunity as long as everyone is aware of what they may be getting into and you're right - the fund managers may be waiting to dump their shares for a profit knowing the market is likely to trend down in the near future. 

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#116) On March 24, 2009 at 7:43 PM, columbia1 wrote:

GV, Russ, Here is another attempt of PBR, If I am wrong, please just give me a clue so I can find the treasure!!!

ENLARGE

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#117) On March 24, 2009 at 7:44 PM, 123spot (< 20) wrote:

Mary, have you got access to It's A Long Way To The Top by Lucinda Williams to start the morning off right? It would make my day. Thanks.

Peace

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#118) On March 24, 2009 at 7:57 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

Columbia~ Take a look at my chart and compare. I don't see any other way to count it, but GV said he needs to make changes to the count.... Yet another learning oppertunity. 

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#119) On March 24, 2009 at 8:07 PM, ayekappy (< 20) wrote:

Now I am confused.

http://www.elliott-today.com/diagonal.htm

Says that expanding diagonal wedges/triangles are pretty much one of the most bearish indicators you can have in Elliot Wave Principle!  And we are in one!

 

Also, I wonder if the megabear guy from stockcharts reads this page, because he removed the 60 minute chart just in the last hour or so, but nothing else!  Weird.  Could just be updating it I suppose.

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#120) On March 24, 2009 at 8:09 PM, ayekappy (< 20) wrote:

edit: I wish I could edit instead of posting a new message, but I guess that's what preview is for... anyways, I just realized the answer to my own question... the thing about crossing the rubicon was not so much the horizontal line, but the edge of the top of the diagonal wedge, which GV has said we crossed out of... now I think I understand.

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#121) On March 24, 2009 at 8:12 PM, buildgreen (< 20) wrote:

join the club

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#122) On March 24, 2009 at 8:14 PM, buildgreen (< 20) wrote:

fine unjoin the club

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#123) On March 24, 2009 at 8:21 PM, columbia1 wrote:

Russ, I did like the look of your chart, then GV said our counts were wrong, that's why I went back to the drawing board and come up with that new chart #116. How do you like that new count in my chart? The one thing I see in your chart is the 1, 2 waves are really short compared to wave 3. Wave 1 and 2 combined took only 3 weeks , then wave 3 takes about 4 months to finish.  Guess we have to wait for GV!!  :)

Mike

A learning experience that is fun!!

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#124) On March 24, 2009 at 8:42 PM, anchak (99.85) wrote:

ayekappy  and other folks:

My 2 cents on the expanding pattern ( Given that I noticed this way before at the first 778 breach and talked to GV about it).....

I'll try to give an EW answer and simple pattern recognition answer 

EWT:

There is a distinction between an "Expanding Triangle" and an
"Expanding Diagonal"

Expanding Triangle is the one that is called here on the 805 cross - given this needs to conform ( you can feel my skepticism)  to the 4th wave theory - in which case a really ugly 5 is in wait.

One problem - Expanding Triangles or any Triangles for that matter cannot violate the 4th wave in the 1st range territory. Yes I guess its still holding for DJIA chart - but not for S&P, Nasdaq or any other sub-indices you look at.

"Expanding Diagonal": This one in my EWT critique - is a form of a CYA - and I am happy to note that GV ignored it. Makes me feel a lot better - because you are not trying to cling onto false hopes  - that doesn't mean sell,sell,sell - but just being pragamtic.

The issue is that's the only formation within EWT which allows for 4th crossover on 1st. However, the twist there is all wave components need to be 3 counts. So for a 5 wave it needs to 3-3-3-3-3. There's a big fallacy in this - most 5 waves - POST FACTO can be classified as a 3 count.

NET NET: You will not know an expanding diagonal before it HITS you in the face. Its not a tradeable premise.

Thus given the fact that not only did the 5th wave ( now classified as 1 NOT 4 any more) - did not correct violently, and it breached 1 ( and the rubicon channle) - the premise is - you cant expect a bear 5th. In the face of an EXPANDING formation - holding onto the 5th for a 666 bottom breach is dangerous. 

Hindsight - I really should have paid a little more attention to the Fibs - especially the Degree + 1 - to understand what happens if things go wrong.

That's my takeaway.

As I said....this doesn't mean the CORRECTIVE 2 from here won't be sharp - it can be. GV is expecting a FLAT - He didn't elaborate why....ITS THE PRUDENT THING - however a Zigzag can't be ruled out. Hence hopefully there may be better opportunities of a structured liquidation of short positions.

Whether you choose to go long - is upto you. A full 62% retrace from 822 - takes it to 730 - so if it does see that level - I will definitely add longs. Most probably from 750 as I said.

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#125) On March 24, 2009 at 8:49 PM, geno0010 (< 20) wrote:

columbia - to me it looks like another 5 wave has been started with the 1 wave up right now to 35.06. I would be looking short term for a pull back - the 2 wave - down to around 28. Just my opinion. Hope you can see it. I don't know how to annotate or link to a chart.

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#126) On March 24, 2009 at 9:00 PM, 123spot (< 20) wrote:

Mary, have you got access to It's A Long Way To The Top by Lucinda Williams to start the morning off right? It would make my day. Thanks.

Peace

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#127) On March 24, 2009 at 9:02 PM, mverna82 (91.23) wrote:

Interesting read.

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#128) On March 24, 2009 at 9:20 PM, PrestonCheek (32.60) wrote:

Anchak, thanks for that explanation. I too will start adding around the 750 pull back unless we see something different start to from. When we break 804 and start down I think it will be fast and furious to 750 where we will have time to get in long and hold on for a nice ride up.

I do have a question though. What if we hold 804, what happens then to the count. I was tempted today to open some longs but I think we have to go below that mark to have a good bounce up.

Tutom, I have a e-mail into a friend of mine in Cairo, I want him to tell us when they are going to bring their next plants online. I know they are behind schedule and that will surely add to their revenue. You did not leave your e-mail for me though.

Thanks everybody for the helpful comments.

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#129) On March 24, 2009 at 9:38 PM, goldfishka (51.57) wrote:

Preston, please please share your Cairo findings with me too - it is on my watch list and since i sold pretty much everything yesterday i am looking for the replenishment :)

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#130) On March 24, 2009 at 9:57 PM, ralphmachio (26.18) wrote:

#96 herztical- I'm not accusing you of believing the press, so much as i'm suggesting the government is acting like a stock newsletter, trying to bolster something they have already invested in. I believe we are definitely looking at an up-swing coming, possibly until september, but there is another aspect to this whole thing. Statistically, new presidents are challenged by some event during their first year that is meant to undermine their authority by the international community.(depending on your beliefs, and whether you would swallow the red or blue pill (matrix)) What I'm saying is, were likely to see a negative event this spring to somehow turn this bull run into an all you can eat Rocky mountain oyster fest. I'm not sure if this type of opinion is welcome here, and I have a very unconventional view of everything, not just the stock market, which I have only been invested in for about 6 months. I'm really new at this, and as an artist/musician/welder/electrician/philosopher, I am less than qualified to be giving advice in finance. 

Murugan- Thanks, i'm being patient, and hopeful.

GV- Thank you, and don't be upset for my mistake please. I'm still ahead in the last 6 months, and hold some promising oil, silver, gold and penny positions, and even if i take a loss, I still can play short term! I too believe that 2012 will be a good thing, after things get worse. My motivation behind investing is to eventually buy land and grow vegetables in greenhouses for local consumption. I like the community here, and believe that you can help yourself only if you help others.

peace 

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#131) On March 24, 2009 at 10:23 PM, ayekappy (< 20) wrote:

Oh jeez, I just saw the GS chart on that guy's site... $20 target?  That's just getting silly.

And it does look like a lot of W1s were violated in a lot of those charts.

Maybe he just does have a lot of shorts and convinced himself?

It's still nice to see different perspectives though, has helped the learning process... thanks for that one explanation anchak!

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#132) On March 24, 2009 at 10:28 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

guys - easy up on GV, his point is about the market opportunity within a market game and the means to make a solid decision without any other input then the market itself.

He pointed out that one should never trade until the market sets the direction.

He pointed out that once committed, the direction needs to be charted and hedged with stops to insure profit.

He pointed out that anyone can do this if they are objective.

I've never been a day-trader but based on this experience, I'm looking forward to retire as an individual who will see every day new and logical and fun. 

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#133) On March 24, 2009 at 11:18 PM, Mary953 (74.95) wrote:

123spot 

All of the links that I find are from YouTube.  I put up embedded videos when the links are there, hoping that those who object will have the links removed as so many do.  This is the link to what I could find for this song.  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3K-ZN8CcpU0  It will give you links to other songs by Lucinda Williams.  Sorry I could not find the exact one you wanted.  This may be it, but I am not certain and it is difficult to listen to these with the sound off (I'm the only one awake - time zone)

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#134) On March 24, 2009 at 11:26 PM, floridabuilder2 (99.23) wrote:

GV,

I read your blogs quite often... I just rarely come onto caps anymore besides reading some of the top bloggers such as yourself since I traded technicals in the past....

I'm always lurking on your blogs mainly for the initial comments and to look at charts or other items that you post in the comments section....  Not a contributor but an admirer... I know the time and effort involved in trying to educate people on a subject whether it be homebuilders or technical trading...

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#135) On March 24, 2009 at 11:44 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

 anchak ~ very nice EW explination. I'm not even sure if we are in wave 2 yet. These tops and bottoms are very tricky. I'm SDS around the 802 SPX mark, so I'm going to wait it out to confirm a wave 2 pattern. Zig-Zag or flat we will get a nice exit point.

Colombia~ Yes, I agree GV said both our counts were wrong. I'm just waiting at this point and see what he comes up with. I opened the chart to 1 year to get a different look and I still don't see any real problem with it. Learning is indeed fun.

Eyekappy~ I looked at his counts today and I saw some just bad counts IMHO.

I think I picked up Mary's cold today, I'm just wipped out so i'm going to call it the night. See everyone tomorrow!

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#136) On March 24, 2009 at 11:51 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

Floridabuilder~ You were my first blog I read on CAPS and followed for a little. I was simply amazed with your knowledge. I think the main thing I took from it was how some of the large cash heavy builders take times like this to simply clean house the smaller ones that are upside down. Gaining assets at fractions of real value. I was a admirer and not a contributer during that time. You got fans here and I'm glad your insterested in what GV is bringing!

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#137) On March 25, 2009 at 12:04 AM, AnomaLee (28.71) wrote:

Comment 135)

I don't know if I've written to any of your blogs. I typically stop reading after 50+ comments around the time the scroll bar begins to shrink to a pea. I don't know how many people migrated from Yahoo message boards to CAPs but there seems to be quite a few.

I've read/skimmed through a good majority of your posts. I recently started looking at them more when I check my references to gauge what other people may/should be thinking when I'm doing my own technical analysis for trades. I'm familiar with EWT, but I learned a while ago that it's not as useful for my trading habit/style.

I appreciate your posts. There aren't many free resources available to learn EWT patterns.

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#138) On March 25, 2009 at 12:37 AM, BaitBoyinOK (< 20) wrote:

Been watching and lurking and guesstimating the time to pull the trigger on some sells to load up some fresh dry powder for a couple of days now.

One thing I found out at work today, and this might do well for others in my boat where the work server blocks Flicker - it doesn't block Stockcharts.com - that is a big thing with me in being able to track progression or digression. Thank you, GV , for posting those live links. Now, if the rest of you would be so kind as to do the same, would make my day less tense and unnerving when I've got my wife pulling the trigger based on my calls from work.

The other thing, that would be thing 2 - news  - 'news' as it currently known is nothing more than selling advertising. What gets you glued to 'news' is the come-on before the commercial to stay tuned to the next soundbite prepared to entice you to watch the next set of commercials. As an example, living here in the heart of Tornado Alley, where we have some of the best weather research tools in the world, our local newscasters have access to many different forecasting models. However, the most popular, READ popular, not accurate, are the ones that take the worst possible model and provide that as their forecast for the coming storms or days. It's not as accurate as the middle of the road model, but it sells the heck out of advertising. Such is the situation with 'news' and why I have to agree with GV on 'news' not impacting trends and waves.

On the other hand - you knew there would have to be one, didn't you - EVENTS trigger reactions, whether they be single stock transactions, or sector reactions , or whole market reactions. Events, such as Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, devastated drilling and production platforms in the Gulf of Mexico - that hit Valero's interests very hard. Their fuel prices here still tend to be higher than others because of it a few years after the fact. 9-11 hit Wall Strret and many investment firms very hard because it took down a number of investments firms most vital assets - their people. Those events, while tragic and life-changing for thousands and tens of thousands of people had their downsides, but then offered their upsides. But they were not necessarily news - 'news' reported the worst of the worst because it sells advertising. Rather, they were major events providing very real, and very severe, impact on the affected companies/industries. Given that, I can't rely on, and I can't depend on, 'news' reporting to sway market movements. However, I CAN depend on major, or even minor, events to have an impact on a particular company and its stock price, a particular sector and the impact on ETFs for that sector as well as individual stocks, or on certain comodities and their options.

Therein, to me, lies the difference between TRADING and INVESTING. Trade on the trends, swings, major changes in direction; invest on long term growth, debt ratios, business models, prospects for future growth, market locks, etc. Whatever you do, know what you plan on doing and why you plan on doing it, and what triggers your enacting your plan. I have saved every blog (once they are closed) since I started following here about 4 weeks ago. I have read and reread the rules of engagement for the GoodVibes community, and I have read and reread GoodVibe's rules for trading. I've learned that I am more patient than I had thought, I learned I do have the intestinal fortitude to withstand big hits to my portfolio and to not dwell on them but to look forward to the next engagement, but I also learned, and am still learning, that I can separate any emotion from my holdings. I hold them, they don't hold me. Every time I read his rules I recognize something that I did not before, and each time I 'own' one more piece of one of those rules, I can then advance forward to learn how to engage and 'own' the next piece of a rule that I only thought I understood the first time I read them. To me, my understanding and ownership of those rules are more important first before charting. When I can clearly and logically view the charts I produce, then and only then can I rely on what the charts reveal to me and make the accurate and (mostly) correct decision. I desire to win on every transaction, but it is not necessary for my well-being and success.

I am a slow learner, but I learn things very well. I just need to make sure I learn them *right.*

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#139) On March 25, 2009 at 12:40 AM, mike512 (< 20) wrote:

GV question.  Is it possible that the 666 bottom was actually a W3 bottom (daily chart) ??  And we are currently in a W4 correction on the daily chart ??  From what I remember from reading Pretcher is the sentiment at the end of 5 waves down should be extremely negative.  we had negative sentiment but I don;t think it was negative enough.  The p/c ratios were too low for a W5 bottom, I don;t believe there has been a bottom from these levels in recent history.

Also if you have watched the action of the Vix.  On 3-19 the sp was down 10pts and the Vix bounced off its 200d and went up 9%.  On the rally Mon (sp 54pts) the vix declined 5%.

 I remember the Oct 2002 bottom there was blood in the streets.  The p/c was high, all the papers and the news was about doom and gloom, etc....this hasn't happenned here.

Is it possible the financials bounced from a deeply oversold condition and led the market up ??

 I am short GS on the overthrow of an ending diagnal W4 (it looks like to me - app $110).  And the chart does not have a W5 down that I see...Gs leads the financials and the market.....

GS just failed at its 40 Week MA which is one of the MA's signifying a continuing bear market. (the SP has not yet reached its 20W MA).

 What do you think ??

 

 

 

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#140) On March 25, 2009 at 12:45 AM, Mary953 (74.95) wrote:

AnomaLee -

This helps for the GoodVibe posts, although most others are not long enough to need this trick. 

If you want to skip straight to the bottom of the blog AND possibly leave a comment, hit CTRL and END together to go straight to the bottom (you may need to do this twice unless you give the scroll bar a moment to shrink to pea size)

If you want to skip straight to the bottom of the blog and not type anything into the comment box, right click on the down arrow in the lower right hand (bottom of the scroll bar) and select Bottom.  Then go up to the last "new" comment and read from there.  You can skip the 100-200 comments you have already read that way.

Hope this lets you keep going with us past the first 50 or so.  I enjoy your blogs and comments on other parts of CAPS and would enjoy hearing more from you here.

AND RUSS -

The worst of this takes a week to 10 days followed by 2-3 weeks of bronchitis.  I am in the second stage now.  I hope you have a cold instead.  If you have this, you are contagious for about 5 days and tomorrow you will feel like GV's bulldozer hit you.  I'll keep you in my prayers.

Mary

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#141) On March 25, 2009 at 1:04 AM, Tutom (< 20) wrote:

PrestonCheek  -- You can send email by going to the last TMF post of the person you want to contact and click on reply and choose "reply by email." I sent you an email. Thanks.

Tom 

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#142) On March 25, 2009 at 9:30 AM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

 AnomaLee~ I think your comment is dircted to GV, but EWT is just one tool to use for sure. It's that the EWT is new the majority of people here including me.

Bait~ I will try to link "live" charts as well. We have more people using shockcharts now and having a live link will help everyone in their development in charting. I love the weather analogy...so true. The only real news I watch is the economic releases. I think it a good measure to get the pulse of the future.

Mike~ we have concluded wave 5 at 666 because this last rally (previously wave 4 as an option) broke 804.3 and wave 4 cannot go into wave 1.

As far as 666 as the ultimate bottom. I think it is still very possible to go lower than that some day, but the current cycle must take it's corse and A,B,C. will correct the last 5 waves. I'm not sure how much of a run we will get, but I'm guessing it will be low on the fib. scale.

Mary~ that horrible that your cold went so far. I feel a lot better after a solid night of sleep. It started on Sunday for me and I think I hit the peak last night. Heck, I woke up at 5am today with some energy and I'm not a morning person...hehe

Good morning everyone

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#143) On March 25, 2009 at 9:36 AM, Cojex1 (< 20) wrote:

Where is everyone today?

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#144) On March 25, 2009 at 9:37 AM, innerflame (< 20) wrote:

I was so excited to see someone up and on the site..It's gotten awful quiet out there.  So Russ- my cold finally is taking a hike- but it was a bit longer than I liked. I hope Mary- you are feeling better.

There is such a mixture of sentiment out there right now. I must admit I'm not sure one direction or another- although the charts to say a correction  was due- but was this all it was? 

So because I'm not able to create my own "expert" charts yet- I still watch yours and GV's and a few others that make sense to me.

And good morning to all those early risers on the west coast- 

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#145) On March 25, 2009 at 9:51 AM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

Flame~ I went through GV's charts and didn't see any correction or update needed. Were on the eve of a battle and we just have to wait for wave 1 to conclude and wave 2 to start... I can try a hopeful daily count as a start to wave 2, but I will be charting to hopes rather than what I see... ( I tend to do that). This cold has hit a few people around me and it seems to hang around for a while. Glad it's gone for you!

 

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#146) On March 25, 2009 at 9:51 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Good morning my friends -

I hope everything is going well for you. That you had a good night sleep and will have a peaceful and profitable day. Because I wanted to answer some of your most FAQ, I am writing a blog to answer those four questions in one post:

1. When I start positions?
2. When I exit positions?
3. When and how I hedge my positions?
4. How and when I use stops?

They are all relating to each other I believe. So if you have another question relating to this topic, or specifics you want me to discuss regarding these question, please step in and tell me now. I'll finish the post tonight.

Have a great day, brothers and sisters.

Current 816

GoodVibe

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#147) On March 25, 2009 at 9:59 AM, innerflame (< 20) wrote:

Thanks Russ- still working on that "patience" thing.

And GREAT ideas GV- I look forward to reading the blog. What might be helpful ( or not) relating to your discussion..

Since I don't work with options,futures, puts and calls-etc. - just buy and sell- will that make a difference in how you might present the information? I know many of you are comfortable with those strategies.

Have a great day GV!

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#148) On March 25, 2009 at 9:59 AM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

I think the most intersting thing to watch today maybe our buddy mr. VIX

Vix

Enlarge,  Live

Ok, off to work. I'll see everyone in a couple of hours.

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#149) On March 25, 2009 at 10:22 AM, GVdrone (< 20) wrote:

Can anybody explain why Russ on the vix chart, bypasses 3 low points with his green line? & is his green line as imporant as GV's, 'break it and we're done correcting'?

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#150) On March 25, 2009 at 10:24 AM, RootnToot (30.16) wrote:

#147 Flame~

Since I don't work with options,futures, puts and calls-etc. - just buy and sell- will that make a difference in how you might present the information? I know many of you are comfortable with those strategies.

I agree wholeheartedly.

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#151) On March 25, 2009 at 10:34 AM, geno00100 (< 20) wrote:

GVDrone-  the dips you are referring to are part of the Bollinger Bands, not the prices of the VIX. The green line is just showing a trend of higher lows.

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#152) On March 25, 2009 at 10:35 AM, innerflame (< 20) wrote:

I looked at GV's updated live chart for S&P- am I correctly seeing what you call a "head and shoulders" forming- and that means this rally rises a bit more then comes off the shoulder? That's about as technical as I can get at this moment. And will that be a sharp drop that some chart bears are showing?

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#153) On March 25, 2009 at 10:53 AM, dcdw (< 20) wrote:

GV some questions,

when to start, SHORT time days weeks, MEDIUM time weeks months,  and LONG time months years.

Same questions for exiting positions.

looking forward to the blog.

thanks

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#154) On March 25, 2009 at 10:54 AM, cubswin08 (31.12) wrote:

GV,  Thanks again for this forum.  There is more value in 5 minutes of reading in CAPS than in 5 hours of some blogs.  Anyone, Anyone venturing into the land of FAZ today? What is your rationale?  Cubs

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#155) On March 25, 2009 at 11:01 AM, GVdrone (< 20) wrote:

geno, sry i'll rephrase i guess: why is the 38.79 dip/break the other day on the vix not considered by RussWild to falsify his lower green support line? it kind of ignores march values and use feb lows to form the line.

 

& is his green line as important as GV's, 'break it and we're done correcting'?

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#156) On March 25, 2009 at 11:02 AM, kingofshorts (< 20) wrote:

buys qld 27.95

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JT0W3Dt87Q4&feature=related

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#157) On March 25, 2009 at 11:14 AM, missmalibu (< 20) wrote:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eiBMltWg2RQ

 

 

LOng way to the top..840, 880..S&P)

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#158) On March 25, 2009 at 11:15 AM, oversea (< 20) wrote:

To day I managed to come back early from work. At home I found my copy of The Book, it had just arrived (it took ages, but never mind). The big problem being that presently I'm too tired to read it.

Suddenly this has become a very quiet place. This is good. It makes me wander how much were the others really interested in learning or were just here for the beer, so to say. Instead I believe it would be important to go back reading all GV's blogs and taking notes of the things he wrote and put them to better use. Thinking about the past days we can easily understand that mistakes were made, but why? Why things didn't turn out the way they should have had? On the other hand these  questions of mine pale in front of the wealth of infos GV gave us, he made us understand how things work. My personal opinion being that GV was very lucky once again, he could not go on with all the stress and work we were piling on him, so his mistake was at the same time his own rescue. When all this carnival was on I was asking myself how this guy could cope with all this, even if he's younger than me he must get some rest and relaxing, besides he must have his own private life... Am I correct GoodVibe? I bet so LOL .

Now back to business,if possible I'll buy some CVX or XOM. I don't know which is best. CVX gives higher dividends and its technical chart looks slightly better than XOM, any opinion about?

Regards 

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#159) On March 25, 2009 at 11:18 AM, kingofshorts (< 20) wrote:

think positive!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U9KwY4b32Cs

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#160) On March 25, 2009 at 11:22 AM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

I duplicated GV's VIX chart 1year and reduced it to 6months to get a closer look at the ending triangle. Notice we are at support line + 200d MA as well. I'm just keeping an eye one it today.

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#161) On March 25, 2009 at 11:27 AM, ralphmachio (26.18) wrote:

GV-I like the sound of your lesson for the evening.  I was wondering if you could include strategies that work well for those restricted by <25,000$ trading rules. (I comfortably fit into that bracket for now) Thanks, this should be interesting.

 

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#162) On March 25, 2009 at 11:31 AM, agbsr (< 20) wrote:

GV, while authoring your FAQ blog, could you give us a little insight on how much TA you perform on an individual stock and how it relates to the TA you perform on the indexes? This might be a simple question that you answer here, but if for example, the index trend is bearish and a stock trend bullish, does that individual stock seem more or less attractive due to the negative trend in the index? I'd also be very interested in hearing other's take on this as well. I'm very curious how TA correlates/seperates conflicting trends. For example, you were calling for a pullback on the index, but WAG looked ripe (great call btw).

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#163) On March 25, 2009 at 11:31 AM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

You know what, I stand corrected. I changed the VIX from what GV did. From the 1year chart, I think it looks cleaner

 Here ya go.

 VIX

Enlarge, Live

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#164) On March 25, 2009 at 11:41 AM, GVdrone (< 20) wrote:

RussWild thank you for the response

 I guess my real question is, you draw a support around 41 right now, while GV's support is far down at 38.11(because his line is horizontal), what odds do you think 41 is a support ?(because it has been broken before)thx

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#165) On March 25, 2009 at 11:42 AM, GVdrone (< 20) wrote:

oh thx for the new chart

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#166) On March 25, 2009 at 11:48 AM, beyondanonda (26.45) wrote:

Russ it is nice to see a calming triangle in the VIX, of course its debatable what the predictive nature of the VIX is for anyone not trading options, but it shows that stocks are being traded with a bit more conviction, heck I havent sold or bought FAZ in 2 days!

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#167) On March 25, 2009 at 11:51 AM, apoorinvestor (< 20) wrote:

How does one stop obsessing over their stocks? ... I look too much... I sold out my positions right before this damn rally...!

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#168) On March 25, 2009 at 12:04 PM, nuf2bdangrus (< 20) wrote:

I pared back half my longs before the 500 pt rally, and rehedged with small short positions....very small.  I wouldn't be buying here,  I would see what earnings and guidance says.  Oil rallying on Korea, meaning geopolitical rish is back.....but it is due for a pullback.  Careful. She short squeeze is over.  New longs could get burned here.  Wait for a pullback.

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#169) On March 25, 2009 at 12:08 PM, Guntorius (< 20) wrote:

so basically, if the s&p follows the chart 2nd from the top of this blog, we should see the start of the pullback within the next couple of days.

 

Barack spoke about the economy last night, does anyone have an opinion on how that is going to affect the market?

 

btw, thanks to earendil to his reply to my last post from the previous blog.  if you're still following this blog thanks.

 can you message CAPS members?

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#170) On March 25, 2009 at 12:15 PM, Guntorius (< 20) wrote:

"so basically, if the s&p follows the chart 2nd from the top of this blog, we should see the start of the pullback within the next couple of days."

 

haha, that period was supposed to be a question mark..  what do you guys think?

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#171) On March 25, 2009 at 12:31 PM, kingofshorts (< 20) wrote:

adds qld 27.52  new price 27.73

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#172) On March 25, 2009 at 12:45 PM, oversea (< 20) wrote:

Apoorinvestor,

what happens to you happens to me and to everybody else. If I buy a share it's allways at the moment of the trading day when it peaks, I sell and buy at the wrong time etc. Ever heard of Murphy's law? What you must pay attention to is the overall result of all your actions. Moaning is a useless bit of exercise due to our greed. We must be happy with the results we acheive even if they are small and even if they could have been better. I sold too some of my longs  before the rally when there was the scare of a big pull back. An so? I've gained something and if there would have been a real pull back the damage would have been much worse.  

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#173) On March 25, 2009 at 12:47 PM, buildgreen (< 20) wrote:

can i ask what your thoughts are on qld? exit strategy?

 

regards,

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#174) On March 25, 2009 at 12:48 PM, mark91055 (< 20) wrote:

You guys putting restrictions on GV for the trading lesson is like saying teach me the best way to play football...oh but I don't throw passes and no field goals please.  It is almost impossible to truely hedge without using options except for paired long short trades.  Paper trading is the best way to learn.  An excel spreadsheet is your number one tool.   Just my two cents worth, mark

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#175) On March 25, 2009 at 1:02 PM, binve (< 20) wrote:

mark91055, I agree 100%. Even if you are not an options investor, you absolutely positively need to understand options. Over 75% of the market action is driven by options. So understanding what they mean technically is critical to success. I am not saying to everybody that you should trade options. But what I am saying is that you should think like an options investor. Always think possibilities, probablities and risk vs. reward. Understand what volatility means, and why the VIX is important.

Goodvibe, I think you should structure the lesson how you see fit. I think everybody will take away from it what they can. 

Everybody. Don't worry. This will be a lot of complicated information and most of it will be over your head. ... for now. But the only way to learn and to understand is to be exposed to all of it. I know it will be like trying to take a sip of water from a fire hose. But any information that GV will post. Read it, read it again, re-read it. You will not get it all on one pass. Let it sink in and come back to it. But I would ask that you don't try to limit the teacher when he is giving a lesson.

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#176) On March 25, 2009 at 1:03 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

VIX is trending up into the 1pm Fed Bond buy -- if the buy fails we're dropping like a rock but the probability is zero.

Art Cashin comments today: http://www.cnbc.com/id/29877006 

Art is one of the few who rarely if ever states anything but the reality on the floor; he's an amazing guy.

Sorry, this isn't chart related.

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#177) On March 25, 2009 at 1:14 PM, innerflame (< 20) wrote:

Maybe I missed something. I also think GV can structure his teachings as it works for him. I'm just learning so that doesn't mean I don't take options, volatility, possibilities, etc as serious and necessary to learn. It just means that at this point in my learning- I'm not able to use options, futures, puts and calls. BUT I am very interested in reading about how it works.

But GV asked so if we toss in our ideas it doesn't mean there are  restrictions- just more information. I'm still going through all the first stuff right now. 

Does that make sense? At least that is how I read his asking for input. And Binve you are just as helpful- always willing to answer our questions. I SO appreciate that.

Maybe I didn't need to say all that- I just want to keep on track.

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#178) On March 25, 2009 at 1:18 PM, buildgreen (< 20) wrote:

VIX is trending up into the 1pm Fed Bond buy -- if the buy fails we're dropping like a rock but the probability is zero.

Apologies... but could you rephrase this?

Thanks for the vid. Helpful.

 

 

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#179) On March 25, 2009 at 1:21 PM, beyondanonda (26.45) wrote:

I think right now there are a mix of folks who trust TA but havent gotten the swing of it yet and are depending on others evaluation.. this is fine just make your own plan, others are gaining increased understanding of chart work but have yet to understand the links between various intermarket and inter stock relationships..one very important tool that will prove critically important is charting and understanding the relationship between the US dollar, commodities, T-bills or bonds/and stocks.  I'm always searching for the leading indicators and this is often where you find them.

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#180) On March 25, 2009 at 1:27 PM, binve (< 20) wrote:

innerflame, No worries :) I think both mark91055 and myself read yours and RootnToot's comments and interpreted them as: "Dial back the discussion on options". Maybe that is not what you meant, and if so I aplogize for the misinterpretation.

But I just wanted to state my opinion that GV should provide his thoughts on the full spectrum of investing and analysis tools, and that he "shouldn't pull any punches" :). 

Thanks for the compliments!

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#181) On March 25, 2009 at 1:27 PM, herztical (28.14) wrote:

...just opened SRS APR bull call spread 55/70.

Not advice / recomendation... just starting a downside hedge with little capital risk / outlay.   Will implement for longs I like on pullback. 

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#182) On March 25, 2009 at 1:34 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

Well this is moment in market time that's too cool to waste. Took the rest of the week off to read over EW and try a few charts.

apoorinvestor,

"How does one stop obsessing over their stocks? ... I look too much... I sold out my positions right before this damn rally...!"

I've done the same thing several times and found I was listening to the day-to-day too much. My rule of thumb has been, a good investment at the bottom is a hold to the point where you can sell less then half of the shares to recoop your initial buy, pay the tax, and the broker fee. The rest of the shares you can hold forever. It's even better if the stock pays a dividend.

The trick is finding volatile times and the right stocks. Each of the sectors have been turned upside down since October and whenever a sector is at it's bottom look to invest in a great company but you have to do the research first.

Day-trading is a different story and I like the idea of trading in all market conditions but until now haven't seen a logical way to approach it.

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#183) On March 25, 2009 at 1:37 PM, binve (< 20) wrote:

State of the rally:

Enlarge

These are observations, not advice

Looks to me like the rally is really losing steam. 10 day 30-min chart. There is lots of bearish divergence between the indicators and the price action. This is not to say that it can't consolidate here and move higher. But right now the rally looks week and very toppy. Personally: I am still in my ultrashorts. Not adding right now, just watching.

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#184) On March 25, 2009 at 1:56 PM, kingofshorts (< 20) wrote:

exit strategy? when i make money!! look like this going to be swing trade as i think we go higher into the end of the month remember it the end of the quarter and the funds want to look good

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#185) On March 25, 2009 at 2:01 PM, oversea (< 20) wrote:

Binve,

nice chart and I thank you for it. For what it's worth I fully agree with you. While I wait I am looking for some nice longs. In this way I'll be ready when it'll be time to buy.

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#186) On March 25, 2009 at 2:02 PM, ayekappy (< 20) wrote:

Welp, just broke the 806.24 barrier, let the fun begin!

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#187) On March 25, 2009 at 2:08 PM, heathinhonduras (< 20) wrote:

You how low do you all think we'll hit?  We're starting to slide down!

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#188) On March 25, 2009 at 2:10 PM, nevercanstop (< 20) wrote:

799 and sinking........

What a turnaround...it would have been nice to happen yesterday.....Turnaround Tuesday sounds so much better than Turnaround Wednesday.....

Long QID, short RDC and CSCO

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#189) On March 25, 2009 at 2:11 PM, Mary953 (74.95) wrote:

Hi guys,

Coming in on the tail end of all this bit. 

Apoorinvestor - Comment #107 - My way of handling it is that - and not looking so often. (and if you notice it was even directed to you because I kinda figured you were where I was a couple of weeks ago)

Binve & Flame - Now that you have that dealt with, my thoughts,

 Russ thinks I have a mental block at a certain point and he may be right.  I can juggle numbers fairly easily.  The government and the IRS are not difficult because understanding regulations is more about taking language apart and breaking it down than about math.  Take any part of the tax code and I can crack it.  That is why I can do taxes so well.  Jump from words to math concepts and things change.

I have gone over the options, call, put, shorting, all of these terms  and I understand the ideas and words.  I know what they are.  When you start to introduce numbers and formulas, my ability to use them falters.  They should be understood as concepts perhaps, but I cannot put money on something I don't understand.  This limits me as a trader and makes me move to investor and short-term invester.  Trading and swing trading will be something I do on those rare perfect storm opportunities when I buy in and the price suddenly jumps enough to make it worthwhile to, no, make that that the price jumps enough to make it foolish not to take the profit and run.  The knowledge is valuable.  Include in that the knowledge of my own ability and my own limitation.  If we don't take both into consideration, we are paving our own roads to ruin.  This is why GV cannot share specifics, because he only knows where his road leads and where his strengths are.

And Flame, I cannot do a blog alone.  This much is taking over my life and breaking my health.  Would you, Susan, and others help so it could be a team effort (I see you Kstar ;-) You know you have to be part of this!)  Maybe we could get TMF to open a site as GV lounge.  I will be part but I don't want to be too busy to learn with the rest of you.  Also I would like to keep working on my own nest egg!

King, Would you like instructions on how to embed videos?

I'll be back after a bit.

Mary

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#190) On March 25, 2009 at 2:16 PM, innerflame (< 20) wrote:

You betcha Mary- I may not know how to do music etc - but I got the psychobabble stuff down ( being a coach and counselor and all around keep 'em smiling sort of person). I also have limited time so I'm all for the shared working thing...

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#191) On March 25, 2009 at 2:19 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

Hi buildgreen,

The concern has been that the Treasury has printed too much money and is seeking to maintain low interest rates at the expense of USD.

If they are forced to buy too much and interest declines in the issues as has been the buzz from China and the recent failed issue abroad, the bottom could fall out from under equities.

The value of the dollar needs to fall for this to be a true bottom but it's a dangerous game if overplayed. 

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#192) On March 25, 2009 at 2:33 PM, columbia1 wrote:

GV in his charts, the second one in the start of this blog, that in order to say that we have started the second wave down that we need to cross the blue line. My charts are showing that we need to go below about 795 to break out!!

Come on ,you can do it!!

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#193) On March 25, 2009 at 2:37 PM, innerflame (< 20) wrote:

Can someone give me a condensed version of what is happening? I know we needed break 805 for a signal that this rally was slowing/ending. The next resistance was 793? Oh- I'm looking at too many different charts.

What I really want to do is prepare for my gathering longs for the next run up...

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#194) On March 25, 2009 at 2:39 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

Art Cashin commented this morning that if we break the 792-793 MA the shorts may swoop in but keep in mind the Cramer story from last night -- the Fundies want Banks cheep so stay close to the keyboard. This is likely to be a mess before a solid wave 2 is in place.

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#195) On March 25, 2009 at 2:41 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

I know we are sticking with wave patterns in "week" formats, but I think we just broke another support line ~798ish

SPX 15day chart update

 SPX15day

Enlarge, Live

*** NOTICE THIS IS NOT ADVICE********

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#196) On March 25, 2009 at 2:48 PM, columbia1 wrote:

Russ, thanks for posting that chart, it looks like your number was closer to 797, then mine around 795. I wish it would just "break on through to the other side", and get us out of this channel!!!

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#197) On March 25, 2009 at 2:48 PM, GVdrone (< 20) wrote:

How is the volume?

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#198) On March 25, 2009 at 2:52 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

Nice bounce on VIX... 1/2 way there on that chart until we hit the resistance line. VIX 2.38% up! Bounced right off that 200 day MA.

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#199) On March 25, 2009 at 2:54 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Are you having fun? Okay, not yet! I am sticking to my large plan, which you will get it in numbers as well from the next post - FAQ.

It was a great idea to sit back from every tick posting here and I bet you are cooler about it too. It wasn't wise although I am happy that you saw how it feels in my trading turret daily.

That said; the new style gave me valuable time to trade better than the last two weeks and watch more carefully. Also, it allowed me to bring you better juice from my mind, which I am putting the final touch on it right now. I did it while I was watching and dancing around the elephants! :) I'll come to give you the link in few minutes.

Hope this find you well.

Current 794

GoodVibe

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#200) On March 25, 2009 at 3:06 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

Call/Put 3 mo chart.. Looking good as well.

 Call-put 3mo

Enlarge, live

Read at your own risk and make your own entry / exit strategy based on your time and risk limits.

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#201) On March 25, 2009 at 3:09 PM, innerflame (< 20) wrote:

Can you explain the call/put chart Russ- in basic beginner language- this really helps me when I see your charts and then read your  interpretation

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#202) On March 25, 2009 at 3:19 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

~Mary, by the way I decided on my fist chart lab topic and it is going to be dedicated to YOU! It will take several weeks to get to the point where I'm ready, but I got the topic narrowed down. Russwild style..lol... can't wait!

Columbia~ I'm sticking to my guns to see what wave 2 holds before I consider any exit type of strategy. Wave 2 could end up being pretty nasty creature out of swaps of chaos and confusion. We are in an extreme market for sure.

 IIcx~ Thx for pointing out the 50d moving average I will take a look.

GV~ Can't wait to see what you put together. You sound pretty happy about it. I'm sure it will be one that I will be referring to in the future when I venture in to the hedging aspects of this. SDS in the green now.

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#203) On March 25, 2009 at 3:25 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

The last 15 minutes today will be very interesting - USB and BCS are already positive - profit taking continues for gs and jpm. Volume is weak so if this is a move down it's really lacking strength.

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#204) On March 25, 2009 at 3:27 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

~flame - It's a ratio of calls vs. puts. It's like an openion poll. It's a good indicator of oversold and overbought conditions. I hope I explained it ok. I'm not an expert on that chart, but that's my take of it. You veterns out there, please correct me if i'm wrong.

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#205) On March 25, 2009 at 3:27 PM, innerflame (< 20) wrote:

I'll have to check back in later- the teen wants to go shopping for a new video game- I'll keep those game stocks in my radar! I would really like to do this next entry exit strategy with a stronger awareness...

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#206) On March 25, 2009 at 3:28 PM, anchak (99.85) wrote:

My goodness , what a day I am missing ....no complains....workplace on fire in terms of workload and moving parts.....

Just looked at the pattern....clear 5 wave completion to me....given the past patterns....could be end of 1 ...but who knows!

Also looks like 805 didn't hold a candle of resistance.....ie market's respecting resistance on the way up - but slicing thru on the way down. But this'll change as it starts to near the Fib retrace levels - ie 778, 750 etc.

Upside risk still 837 though

I am looking forward to that post by GV.

 

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#207) On March 25, 2009 at 3:30 PM, innerflame (< 20) wrote:

Thanks Russ- I know somewhere back in the annals of this blog- there was an explanation about the ratios.

Has anyone else realized what a goldmine of info this is?I know I could look all this up in a book or on the net- but I learn more by actually participating.

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#208) On March 25, 2009 at 3:33 PM, runningin777 (< 20) wrote:

GV

Been on vacation for 4 days, but reading the blog diligently.  I'm happy to know that you are making a change in the blog.  I knew you would burn out soon if something didn't change.

We'll keep helping each other if you keep giving us some light at the end of the tunnel. 

Still working on my first chart to post.  Reading through the EW book again while studying the charts.  good stuff.

Runningin

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#209) On March 25, 2009 at 3:43 PM, mkrm (< 20) wrote:

GV #146-  If not too late, could you include strategies for trading around a position that has not gone as planned?

Thanks!  Mike

WOW.  First post on a blog or discussion board (ever).  That was overdue.

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#210) On March 25, 2009 at 3:49 PM, binve (< 20) wrote:

Russ and Flame: Russ, yeah you have most of it. Calls (investors making bullish bets) and Put (investors making bearish bets). When the CPC (Total Puts / Total Calls) is less than 1, the option investors are generally bullish. The opposite is true on the CPC is >1.

You are looking for changes in the market when the CPC reaches extreme values (sort of a contrary indicator).

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#211) On March 25, 2009 at 3:59 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

it's just too amazing with eyes wide open - the bulls and bears are pulling the Trogan Horse in opposite directions at the same time with equal force waiting for news of its contents.

lol - I can't wait to see what's inside. GV got it right, we're treading water sideways. 

 

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#212) On March 25, 2009 at 4:07 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Now, you see why I said we bottomed and why we have a great chance that the correction will be a flat wave. The big money is back and they are afraid to miss the train. They are picking ever dip. What was the wrong with 666 just two weeks ago that they are not seeing it anymore @ 820! And they call them smart money. :)

Here's the new post. Please tell me if you want more explanation. I'll go back and read your comments above to see what did you say. See you there.

Current close 813.88

GoodVibe

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#213) On March 25, 2009 at 4:25 PM, ayekappy (< 20) wrote:

I'm almost thinking these last minute runs are PPT people trying to headfake TA people.  Very interesting last few days.

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#214) On March 25, 2009 at 4:38 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

agree ayekappy - the vix is clearly rigged ;)

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#215) On March 25, 2009 at 4:43 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

You got it right GV at 666.79 and I'm sitting on the horse with big smiles!!!

Thanks!!! 

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#216) On March 25, 2009 at 4:51 PM, kstarich (31.10) wrote:

Ayekappy

Silly question- what is PPT?

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#217) On March 25, 2009 at 4:56 PM, kstarich (31.10) wrote:

Hey Guys

What is your thinking.  Waiting for a dip to get some new longs.  When do we stop going sideways?

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#218) On March 25, 2009 at 4:59 PM, ayekappy (< 20) wrote:

Plunge Protection Team created by Reagan.

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#219) On March 26, 2009 at 12:14 AM, herztical (28.14) wrote:

ayekappy

rally def not PPT related; financials pulled back and then bought. I said it before and I'll say it again, shorting financials is yesterdays trade; they have too much going for them now and they have been so beaten.  We WILL see some upside earnings surprises; and you can bookmark this blog for that as well.

Disclosure: long GE/WFC

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#220) On March 26, 2009 at 2:26 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Hello brothers and sisters -

After a lot of watching and charting, I came up with an update chart for wave 1. Usually when I get confronted with such bullish sentiment where all pullbacks are bought, I have to pay attention that the bull is back in town. We all know that this will be the case since we called for the bottom. We knew that there's a big rally is coming. We are not done yet as you know per the first chart above. there's more to come. You didn't miss the rally. :)

The shallow and quickly reversed drops are another sign not only that the bottom is in but also that the bulls have a lot surprises to the bears even if they retreat a little. This bullish assumption will reverse ONLY if we get a deep retrace to below 746, which I don't see coming but can't eliminate yet.

I updated the chart with an added count for the most bullish scenario for the bulls (worse for the bears). Don't let the chart intimidate you. It's very simple. I thought to give you number of channels to ponder on to understand your upside and downside. I see these channels to be the most plausible ones.

To simplify things for you, all you have to keep on your radar are two numbers:

826.78 - If we cross this, it's bulls' land and the black annotation is playing out.

791.37 - If we break this, it's bears' land and the pink annotation is playing out.

SP - Wave 1

    Enlarge  Live Chart

I hope this find you well and the above added some value to your thinking. Be happy, do good, and the rest will be taken care of.

GoodVibe

PS. I apologize for not finding the time to answer your today's question from this blog and my last blog but I'll come around them in the weekend. Thanks!

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#221) On March 26, 2009 at 8:17 AM, mattskin (< 20) wrote:

Hey guys,

 I know abotu 5 threads back, there was a book recommendation for Elliot Wave theory.  Could anyone repost that for me?  I am having issues finding it.

 

Thanks!

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#222) On March 26, 2009 at 8:29 AM, RootnToot (30.16) wrote:

Matt,

http://www.amazon.com/Elliott-Wave-Principle-Behavior-Advantage/dp/0471988499/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&qid=1238070456&sr=8-2

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#223) On March 26, 2009 at 8:45 AM, mattskin (< 20) wrote:

Thanks, Root!

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#224) On March 26, 2009 at 9:18 AM, Mary953 (74.95) wrote:

I assume we continue here.

To Russ and Root -

One reason I am so silent is that I am working on 4 tax returns. Yep, 4. Two were from people that wanted me to 'check over' their stuff to make sure they owed that much. They are now getting back $1,000+ and $6,000+. No, they didn't owe that much. On taxes, the numbers are pieces of a jigsaw puzzle.

Russ, Sched C or CEZ (I'm guessing C) is a bear! Be sure you separate your expenses into the various categories. Otherwise, your return will give the IRS computer a case of heartburn and you don't want that. I will try to check back once in a while so that if you need help, I can offer it.

GOODVIBE -

LIGHTBULB!! Scaling! No wonder I couldn't figure out what you were doing, even when you were listing out trades. Still not certain I get most of what you put down. That's mainly because I am going to take it one bit at a time. The first major idea to fasten on to is scaling. Would you believe I have never heard of it before? This (basic info) explains a lot actually.

This is also the sort of thing that I think you were intending to do for Susan and for me when we began before we all started chiming in with questions. Since the questions were past my understanding from the start, I got lost right off. Sort of like the first grader that gets headed into the big kids class and handed a text book that would be very helpful if you could already read.

I am going back to my taxes. I'll check back later. Have a great day every one!

Mary

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#225) On March 26, 2009 at 10:31 AM, columbia1 wrote:

I do not know if anybody is following GV's new chart, but we got all the way up to 826.76, then dropped. It just does not get any closer then that!!!

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#226) On March 26, 2009 at 10:46 AM, GVdrone (< 20) wrote:

columbia1, would that be bearish or bullish?

oh and vix broke 200MA, definitely bullish

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#227) On March 26, 2009 at 10:48 AM, innerflame (< 20) wrote:

I've been following it- and I guess this is the flat or sideways movement- bears -n -bulls. The European markets- which are dropping at the moment- are  interesting to watch also. Are there any thoughts on their relationship to the US market?

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#228) On March 26, 2009 at 10:50 AM, DanDarby (< 20) wrote:

I was watching that columbia, pretty amazing.

I now have a solid plan if we go down, but what are people thinking if we cross 826.78?

What would be a good entry point to jump in long? 827? We would be in the early stages of a wave 3, and I don't see a significant pullback if 826.78 is broke

Or am I wrong here

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#229) On March 26, 2009 at 11:04 AM, columbia1 wrote:

GVdrone- The way GV put it was if we surpassed 826.78, that would be bullish. Looking at his chart that would mean we are in wave 3, up. If we stay below 826.78 then most likely we are still in wave 2 down.

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#230) On March 26, 2009 at 11:08 AM, Tutom (< 20) wrote:

Absolutely fascinating week! One query. I don't understand how wave 2 (according to today's chart) could retrace less than 30% and still be valid. Would you just call this an exception? How would you explain it in terms of EW, if it does turn out to be our count? Thank you.

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#231) On March 26, 2009 at 11:18 AM, beyondanonda (26.45) wrote:

If this is an ascending flag we see forming in the S&P (usually form quickly) its very bullish

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#232) On March 26, 2009 at 11:35 AM, binve (< 20) wrote:

beyondanonda, Yep I see that too. The S&P just broke out of its bullish flag and is retesting the top support line (very bullish) and XLF is sporting a bullish sym-tri. As of right now the rally is consolidating and it looks like it wants to push higher today.

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#233) On March 26, 2009 at 11:51 AM, GVdrone (< 20) wrote:

To communicate, I've been naked short(was wrong) for a while but been patient for a pullback to go long

but if we top 826.78, I'm buying Fas

Any big errors/risks here?

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#234) On March 26, 2009 at 12:11 PM, columbia1 wrote:

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#235) On March 26, 2009 at 12:25 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

Tutom ~ I looked at the Elliott book to get a read on wave 2,4,b and how you justify them. I'm not done with the book, but what it says is these waves are "noticible"... now isn't that an open ended statement.

Mary~ I hire a tax pro for the actual filling, i'm just entering all the recipts I have into excel and catagorizing them into assets, expenses and product. (I'm just doing the leg work). I bought quickbooks this year, but find it just to slow so i'm doing it old school..

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#236) On March 26, 2009 at 12:42 PM, innerflame (< 20) wrote:

A Question for those who might know: How much does this bullish push have to do with funds needing to have  a positive third quarter? IS the market oversold at this point? And will everything drop once the quarter is in..

I keep seeing in the charts a need for a correction but differing ideas on what that means..  I know now not to participate if I don't see something clear happening ( from my own vantage point). ( Especially if I'm not good at protecting myself yet)

 

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#237) On March 26, 2009 at 12:55 PM, tahoestock (30.24) wrote:

Russ...I agree with your comment to Tutom.  Looking at a daily chart there is no "noticeable" 2-wave forming.  The 1-wave is still going strong....in fact, TRIX is showing possible divergence all the way up to 875. 

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#238) On March 26, 2009 at 1:03 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Just a quick note:

When I said;

826.78 - If we cross this, it's bulls' land and the black annotation is playing out.

791.37 - If we break this, it's bears' land and the pink annotation is playing out.

That doesn't mean that there will be surrender to the loser. Notice the large channel and the arrows that represent supplies by the bears or demand by the bulls. These arrows will be hard to overcome.

In my world that mean, at these levels, it's not wise to go long or short. Wait until we reach the large channel border either way to position yourself much better. The far away from the channel you start, the higher risk you will take.

By the way it all depends on your timeframe. Is it a day, a week, a month, a year.
I hope all are doing well. See you later.

Current 825

GoodVibe

PS. I urge you kindly to stop bringing Ultra ETFs conversation here. I don't enjoy seeing it throwing innocently here while number of our brothers and sisters especially new comers don’t know how to trade them. The more people mention it, the more people will think it's the easy to do. If you want to trade them and communicate your thoughts in the benefits of others, you can say I am buying financial, Tech, small caps, or what have you so you can get it out of your system.  

Where’s GoodVibe lounge? Mary – Don’t worry about others thinking that you will corner the Rec. market here? Go ahead and open it as soon as you like. I’ll be there too. May I suggest any of these five people to do so? Mary, adventure, Innerflame, Susan, or Lady K. Any one who is willing and able to open this blog and maintain it, please come here first and say you will start the first one so we don’t open many at the same time. When you do so, come and link it. Next GoodVibe market vibe will be limited to discuss daily market movement alone. I think splitting topics is a great idea where everyone get what they want without having to read too many stuff they are not looking for. If they want it all, they can get it all.

Also, if Russ will take long time, two other people can help him with the same issue for "GoodVibe Chart Lab". Binve and Columbia can do great job at that. It's a place to make mistakes not to be right or knowledgeable. To experiment and exchange ideas of how to learn TA. It's another great idea.

I can do all that for you guys but I will have to maintain all these blogs, which I do now in one blog, and we know well I will not be able to do that for long. So I want your help helping many others. Forget about the Recs, or doing it right out of the gate. We're about helping each other in whatever way we can. What do you say?

Now that was longer than I thought it would be! :)

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#239) On March 26, 2009 at 1:07 PM, ayekappy (< 20) wrote:

Well we topped 826.78!

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#240) On March 26, 2009 at 1:12 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

829.74 - quite a day - Pharma is showing weakness and profit taking is still going on in select financials like GS and USB

VIX has been 40ish but hasn't broken down yet. 

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#241) On March 26, 2009 at 1:15 PM, arboretum (28.38) wrote:

[klaxon sounds]

Abandon shorts!

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#242) On March 26, 2009 at 1:18 PM, ayekappy (< 20) wrote:

Well at least my May and June zombie calls are starting to come out of their graves, I assume to eat my April puts. :)  Well as long as it makes them stronger.

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#243) On March 26, 2009 at 1:37 PM, GVdrone (< 20) wrote:

I wish I had the willpower to abandon my shorts...

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#244) On March 26, 2009 at 1:51 PM, GVdrone (< 20) wrote:

Anyhow, I just added some leveraged longs in light of the break.

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#245) On March 26, 2009 at 1:56 PM, mistermiranga (93.30) wrote:

I was just about to do the same as an offering to Mr Market to call off the bulldozer.

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#246) On March 26, 2009 at 2:05 PM, arboretum (28.38) wrote:

Looks like 826.8 is now support.

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#247) On March 26, 2009 at 2:16 PM, crystlz (65.99) wrote:

I have to think that at some point even the big money will have to look at the  P/E ratios on specific companies. One lesson I have learned during this journey is that the market can remaion irrational  longer than I, personally, can remain solvent, thus my sideline position of all cash.

 

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#248) On March 26, 2009 at 2:18 PM, murugan2 (32.70) wrote:

I added some index based calls so I guess a plunge is coming;)

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#249) On March 26, 2009 at 2:24 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

GV~ I'm on track ETA 10-15 days and I will start the lab off with a bang and completly agree, don't wait for me if anyone wants to start it. Binve or Colombia, that would be great! Just a thought Colombia, Start one with the PBR charts we put together and GV could kick it off with the correction.

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#250) On March 26, 2009 at 2:32 PM, binve (< 20) wrote:

Russ, GV, and Columbia,

I agree that Russ should head up the lab. He has taken to EW like a duck to water. I use TA all the time, but I stay with Support/Resitance, patterns, Fib retracements, indicators and divergences. EW is the next tool I am adding to my toolbox but I am not there yet. As far as Columbia starting the lab with the PBR charts, I think that is a great idea. Either way, I will back you guys up with my TA toolbox, and add my $0.02 on EW when I feel more comfortable with it.

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#251) On March 26, 2009 at 2:36 PM, agbsr (< 20) wrote:

Anyone need me to make the market pull back? All I have to do is close my shorts for a horrendous loss, and go all in bullish. That always seem to work for me.

Kidding aside, sign me up for chart school. I need a place to bounce my attempts and get my papers graded.

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#252) On March 26, 2009 at 2:41 PM, columbia1 wrote:

Russ- I will put PBR up about 4 pm pacific time. I have some loose ends to finish up first-

If time permits I might also try BA

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#253) On March 26, 2009 at 2:48 PM, kstarich (31.10) wrote:

Binve, Russ and Columbia

I really like the idea of chart lab where we can bring charts for discussion.  Binve, I am with you on the support resistance aspect.  I have been trying to learn this and it would be great to start with some basic's like support , resistance MA200 MA50 etc.

I also have a quick question for any of you.  What does it mean when a stoch touches MA 50 breaks through then up and down to touch again?  I am watching WFC.

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#254) On March 26, 2009 at 2:51 PM, innerflame (< 20) wrote:

 I would LOVE to see something on BA-( as I'm chart challenged at this point).

 

 

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#255) On March 26, 2009 at 2:52 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

SPX 1yr 6 month chart. I'm wondering if I'm using the second fib. scale wrong GV/anyone. I'm sicking to my short at the moment, but it does feels like swimming up stream.

 SPX-1yr-6mo

Enlarge

**Read chart at your own risk***

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#256) On March 26, 2009 at 2:54 PM, dimitrous (< 20) wrote:

So guys, how was the 826 resistance calculated? I now udnerstand that it depends on the previous wave, but what is the actual calculation? I feel like by knowing the number I'm skipping to the "answer" section of my text book. I would like to know how we got that answer too : ) None of my wave calculations seem to come up with the same number...

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#257) On March 26, 2009 at 3:00 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

Amazing 1st day of research and I see why you like stockcharts.com.

I ran across this rule-of thumb and thought I'd share it:

"Stochastics - an oscillator popularized by George Lane in an article on the subject which appeared in 1984. It is based on the observation that as prices increase, closing prices tend to be closer to the upper end of the price range; conversely, in down trends, closing prices tend to be near the lower end of the range. Stochastics has slightly wider overbought and oversold boundaries than the RSI and is therefore a more volatile indicator. The term "stochastic" refers to the location of a current futures price in relation to its range over a set period of time (usually 14 days)."

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#258) On March 26, 2009 at 3:13 PM, tahoestock (30.24) wrote:

My 2cents Russ...yes, I would question the 2nd Fib scale.  Wave 1 is not a correction to the prior 5-wave so has no relationship to it. Great charting; looking forward to your class.

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#259) On March 26, 2009 at 3:32 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

YEN is now over 98.50 and VIX is falling into the close with the S&P rising into the trend. We're going up...

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#260) On March 26, 2009 at 3:44 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

I hate the last 1/2 of the trading day... new high....again....sigh

~Tahoe, I think your right.

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#261) On March 26, 2009 at 3:48 PM, Tutom (< 20) wrote:

Thanks for the reply Russ. So, what is the rule of thumb for calculating the size of Wave 1, if we assume that the trend down at the end of Wave 5 has ended? I was using using 61.8% of size of Wave 5 as my max for Wave 1 which I calculate as 837. Or could wave 1 go as high as 100% of the last down wave?

I'm getting dizzy... 

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#262) On March 26, 2009 at 3:50 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

1/2 hour of the trading day that is*

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#263) On March 26, 2009 at 4:00 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

it's becoming obvious, due solely to the massive intervention we don't have a normal bottom pattern. Unless I'm missing any bad news, I don't see any for the next several months that's anything more then a blister, we're going to explode to the upside. There will be a brief down move at some point well above where we are but that will be all "she" wrote for the bottom ;)

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#264) On March 26, 2009 at 4:01 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

Tutom~ Good question, Wave 1's really don't have a set % length. I am sure I was wrong to use the fib. tool on wave 5 to measure this wave 1. I think the best way is to count out the 5 waves of (1) to get near the end. As you can tell, this week kept pushing new highs has been ending wave 5 of (1). GV put 2 ending at 766 if we broke through 826, which we did. I'm not going to question his count, but that's one ugly looking wave 2 IMHO. Hope that helped.

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#265) On March 26, 2009 at 4:31 PM, Tutom (< 20) wrote:

Russ - Yes, that helped. I'm always amazed at how anticipated news plays in to the waves. I'd guess that there would be huge resitance setting up around 840 as it was a previous resistance point. Lots of buyers got caught holding the bag at this level back in January and February. This seems like a natural turn-around point (correction) for the begining of April, as funds are done getting back into the brand name stocks and earning season begins. I could easily envision a leg down next week.

My question would be, then, could a corrective Wave 2, starting in or around 840, be explained using EW, or has that scenario been totally ruled out?

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#266) On March 26, 2009 at 4:31 PM, Mary953 (74.95) wrote:

Fib, Stolchastics, MACD and various indicators would be high on my list of "what are these, how do you use them, I don't understand the book definitions but I know they could be important aids"  types of questions.  If you want to tackle that at some point, I would be most grateful. 

As to a GV lounge, a question.  If I open one, can you guys keep it going even if I am not there running it?  I can provide info on how to embed vidclips, add some and drop in at points right now, but my plate is really full and I am just too overloaded to be on the computer very much.  Your call, do you want it open with me popping in and out, or do you want someone else to open and stay close for now?

Mary

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#267) On March 26, 2009 at 4:35 PM, adventure818 (< 20) wrote:

Hey Russ,

I had the opposite take on GV's statement in #220

826.78 - If we cross this, it's bulls' land and the black annotation is playing out.

791.37 - If we break this, it's bears' land and the pink annotation is playing out.

To my understanding, the black annotation of crossing 826 doesn't include the pink wave 2 count that goes back down to 766. The 766 low was only if we went below 791, which didn't occur. Am I missing something?

Thanks!

Adventurer

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#268) On March 26, 2009 at 4:47 PM, kstarich (31.10) wrote:

I would also like to see BA.  I thought GV did a chart on BA because I bought it @29.60 when we all went long the last time.  It is still rockin and the research on it suggested projected price of $60.  Would like to see what you guys come up with.

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#269) On March 26, 2009 at 4:47 PM, kstarich (31.10) wrote:

I would also like to see BA.  I thought GV did a chart on BA because I bought it @29.60 when we all went long the last time.  It is still rockin and the research on it suggested projected price of $60.  Would like to see what you guys come up with.

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#270) On March 26, 2009 at 4:47 PM, ekramer17 (< 20) wrote:

I read that the same way as Adventurer.  The pink count, if I understand correctly, is now invalidated.  Given that we printed 832, the black count must be the correct one, and we are currently in {iii} of 3.

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#271) On March 26, 2009 at 5:12 PM, innerflame (< 20) wrote:

Mary- what I can do for the Lounge- is if it is opened by you and there is a link from GV- I can pop in and out to see if there is anything I can answer and respond to...

I'm so overwhelmed from all this stock learning stuff that trying to keep my own blog going would be a bit of stretch at this point- so let me help where I can- as so many have helped me here.( Especially you!)

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#272) On March 26, 2009 at 5:27 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

Tutom , adventure818 , cabotb21 ~ I agree 100% with your interpretation of GV options.

Ok, so on the black rule we are on wave 3 of (a) starting at 766.

I just have an issue. I've been trying to count 3 knowing that 840 is GV's major "i'm wrong" number and it is hard to count. I just feel we are extremely overbought here and GV will call the leg down 4 and not 2 if we do a bounce off 835 range. I just like the look of a wave 2 down from this level if it has some range to it.. I'm hoping GV could explain this to me in more detail.

First thing GV tought me was to start charting big to small scale. Right now when I'm looking at the trees (5-15 day chart) things look a little confusing. I step back to look at the forest (6mo-1yr chart) and wave 1 still looks like an option to me. The market doesn't move in a straight line and wave 1 here looks pretty straight to me.

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#273) On March 26, 2009 at 5:37 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

I spent the entire morning working with the tools available in my trading account looking for patterns and then went out to check the stock charting tools online for additional insight.

One of the possibilities that explains the compressed market moves we're seeing is a head and shoulders bottom. Given the massive intrusion from governments it's possible this bottom can pattern differently from the normal double bottom we typically see and saw in 2002-2003.

Just a thought, but it explains the compressed performance over time and the spikes up.

We've entering the last days of the quarter so, even if I'm wrong, it will be a big surprise if we don't go up for the next 3 trading sessions. If I'm right we're looking at GV's March 9th call and will see every "grasshopper" jumping out of their skin to get in the game over the next several weeks.

Best, IIcx 

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#274) On March 26, 2009 at 5:56 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

DO NOT Eat Big Bites of Grass apoorinvestor -- little bites will pay big rewards and you can always double down if the news and markets go South. Look for logical beaten down sectors and nibble but pick wisely and hold your bets --we're at the bottom ;)

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#275) On March 26, 2009 at 5:59 PM, Tutom (< 20) wrote:

Hi Russ. Sorry, I'd put up a chart, but I'm being frustrated by my Ameritrade tools. I worked it out on paper. See if you get me.

First: Red (i) and (2) same as GV.

Second: Black (i) and (ii) same. Black (ii) retraces about 37% (eyeballing). Fits!

Third: Black (iii) at 803.26 instead of the 755 or so on GV's chart. Third wave become much longer than 1 and 5.

Fourth: Black (iv) retraces to 766.2 or approximately 39%.

Fifth: Black (v) becomes 840. Possible retracements to

                38.2% to 775; or 50% to 756; or 62.8% to 735 

Perhaps I'm just thinking too much... 

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#276) On March 26, 2009 at 6:02 PM, Tutom (< 20) wrote:

First: Red (i) and (2) same as GV.

This should read "First: Red (i) and red (ii) same as GV's chart. 

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#277) On March 26, 2009 at 6:17 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

Tutom~ Speaking counts are confusing isn't it...lol Don't worry, I think I know what your thinking and yes, that would be my option for 1/v 835-840 top. I'm not looking for huge gains, but the retracements would be using the fib numbers. As for sell timming, I would look at GV trade post. I think he outlines it out very well.

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#278) On March 26, 2009 at 6:37 PM, columbia1 wrote:

I started a new post Work in progress, Chart lab 1, It started with PBR and I will soon add BA. Please help out and post your charts or add your opinions about the charts. 

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#279) On March 26, 2009 at 6:41 PM, ekramer17 (< 20) wrote:

Here's a question...why 840?  I see the Fib retracement on GV's chart, but what is the reasoning behind putting the 100% retracement there?

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#280) On March 26, 2009 at 8:37 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

Cabot~ I'm going to see if the major resistance line holds (i'll link it below) , if it even tests it... 845ish... This is just my plan, GV had 840 as a critical number because his margin would at risk and would sell is long position at that point, but not his shorts. I highly recomend everyone reading GV's trading post!

SPX 6mo no count resistance line.

 SPX-6mo

Enlarge

Notice---- Read at your own risk.

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#281) On March 26, 2009 at 9:35 PM, crystlz (65.99) wrote:

Hey Russ,

I really appreciate all of the energy that you put into this community. I am new to all of this and often miss some of the finer points of the EWP discussions. However; I can't help but notice the downleg that began February 9 ending at our bottom and our current upleg appear to be mirror images of each other. I painfully recall that the downleg began circa875.

I certainly am not hoping for a 100% retracement but with the end of the month, the end of the quarter, and big money in the game who knows?

peace bro 

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#282) On March 26, 2009 at 10:53 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Everyone – Regarding news (again), the tools I use don’t factor news into consideration. You can think of this as lack or shortsighted thinking but it’s not and when you use the tools I use, you will know why I don't care about news, especially anything comes from Cramer. If you trade on news, that’s fine. I tried it and it didn’t work for me. After the news comes out, it’s already in the price. It’s already in the waves. Someone knows about it before and will buy before it to sell others the news. If you’re successful trading this way, I am happy for you. I listen to the news always just to know what people think and I have the charts to tell me not only what they did but also what they’re doing and what they WILL do. I got a better deal.

Preston – What is this talking about Cairo?

#139 Mike512 – I think this scenario that we are in wave (4 up of (5) down) instead of wave 2 UP is very slim (1% just to never say never) but if this is the case why wave 4 entered in wave 1? There’s a scenario like this but this will transfer the whole count from earlier large waves. I don’t see it. The current status of the economy and psychology are improving by not dropping further. They are not great but they are not getting worse. What I thin of now as wave (5) exhibit all the proper size, look, and declining strength than wave (3). Usually wave (5) is less strong than (3) and proportionally sized compared to (1). Beside many other things, all fit to indicate that we got (5). For the sentiment, I don’t think P/C is good sentiment indictor. Other sentiment indictors were extremely bearish and were at record extremes such as the Daily Sentiment Index and the AAII survey, as well as the Rydex Assets Ratio. It’s a mystery to many including myself why several tried and true sentiment measures didn’t work, as they should. Some measures however, were not near levels that have coincided with past market lows such as CBOE put/call ratio you mentioned, the ISE Sentiment Index (another put/call venue), Market Vane’s Bullish Consensus, the Rydex Cash Flow Ratio and to some degree the Investors Intelligence data. For the VIX, I believe this has something to do with the wide spread use of Ultra ETFs that reduced the need to hedge using options. Don’t really know. So only time will tell. Good luck with GS, we are in the same boat if you still holding them. It’s best to short the best! :) For SP 20W MA, we still have a long way to go as I said in my charts and commentary; we’re not done from this rally by any mean. We just have to rest first. When bears throw the towels, this is where Mr. Market likes to show them how he can humble them by puling back the strings when they gave up to show them that they don’t have the final say. :) Mr. Market likes to frustrate both sides to extremes.

Very good observations by the way. You let me think little harder by your questions!

#148 Russ –
Your VIX chart isn’t wrong but isn’t right either. Drone #149 comment must be considered. First consider the nearest points BEFORE the furthest ones. I updated my VIX chart couple days ago.

#162 agbsr – It’s not always the case that every stock goes the same direction as the overall market but for my style, I don’t fight the tape. If the tape’s near future is down, I am bearish on all my picks. If the tape’s near future is up, I am bullish on all my picks. It’s a better bit. And I said the near future because I always at one point have to take the other side of the prevailing trend in the context of a reason and a plan. Usually at the end of the trend before the market turn around. Easier said than done, as you might notice at times. :)

#167 apoor – Looking back is not the way to looking forward.

#183 binve – That chart was awkward and it didn’t say any of what you thought it said. :) It happens to the best of us.

#184 King – Agree!

# mkrm – It’s an honor for me to have your first post ever on a blog in one of mine.

# Lady K – PPT

#230 Tutom – The new wave count is fine even if it looks little bit short. Fib. Numbers are not always respected the way you think. When a trend reverses, the Fib. Numbers will start to reverse to accommodate future prices more than respecting prior waves. Until we get one respected pullback, and the bulls start to slow down, which I started to notice today, any Fib. Retracement is fine. Fib numbers can easily exceed the current standards I present it to you by wide margin, 100% (as it's the case here) and even more. This is another reason I should be confident of calling 666 as the bottom. We’re trying to retrace as far as we can from it so when we pull back, we still safe from breaking it.  

#236 flame – Your assumption is correct. Fear of underperforming comes next to the fear of losing. The market is overbought but in bullish markets, the overbough condition cans persist for more than the bears like. Same as in bear market; oversold condition can stay more than it should. This is also another reason to support the bottom and shifting tide towards the bulls’ camp.

# 255 Russ –
you have one count that you know is not right while using its Fib Numbers. Never put what you wish on a chart. Big mistake.

# 256 dimi –
826 is not calculated. It was the last high. We don’t always use the Fib. to measure everything.

If I have something to update tonight, You will find it here when you wake up.

Have a good night, bothers and sisters.

GoodVibe

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#283) On March 26, 2009 at 10:53 PM, GVdrone (< 20) wrote:

RussWild, sorry I understand 850, but why 835.37?

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#284) On March 26, 2009 at 11:00 PM, Mary953 (74.95) wrote:

I have to admit that of all of this, the thing I miss most is that little yellow spot that GV put on the charts indicating the 'cheese zones.'  Even when I got confused by the various lines going in all different directions for all of the possibilities, I knew that if we were in that area, we were in a zone for the chance to weigh the risks and decide whether we wanted to buy or not.  This is the point that I was looking forward to a group of yellow circles to indicate possibilities.  Bad timing.  :-(

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#285) On March 27, 2009 at 12:37 AM, binve (< 20) wrote:

Everybody,

I started playing with a few charts awhile ago, and it kind of consumed me and it turned into a semi-monster blog post. 

Please feel free to check it out: Technical Investing Themes

 

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#286) On March 27, 2009 at 1:07 AM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

mike512 ~ I appologize for not reading your post fully. I saw GV's long explination and boy, you are there with EWT count and ideals. I would love for you to join in on the lab area's for additional help. Pay it forward brother! I have somthing to add to what you proposed. One of the stock poscasts I listened to stated that the Gov. actions is just making the fall delay over time. If we just let the banks fail, house prices die and leave it be, the market would hit rock bottom and yes, blood on the street, but we could establish a bottom and start to rebuild from the destruction economically and in the market. Rather we are going to have a slower long lasting fall of the market from all the printing of money and spending that they are doing. I'm not going to argue if what the Gov is doing is right/wrong, but rather that we haven't seen the ultimate bottom, but if 666 concludes wave 5 we are going to ride A&C up. After that, it bear market time IMHO and we shall see if 666 will be tested again. We will have to play it by eye.

crystlz ~ Thank you, and i'm trying. GV has found balance again (and that is a very good thing for all of us) between his own trades/life and this community. I miss the daily interaction, but I'm trying to curb the questions during the day even though I don't do GV justice. GV, we all miss you during the day but stay the course brother! You doing exactly what you should!

GVdrone ~ 835.37 is as close as I could get to the current top with the fib. tool. It mean nothing at all. I we break current highs that number will change to it on the fib... Sorry I might of been able to get it closer to that.

Mary953 ~ I do need you help with taxes... quick questions. I got the candle business stuff done for 08, and I'm on now to my wifes private practise and I've never done it before. It all expenses and you said I need to catorize them by expenses.. what are those categories? And yes, I miss the "cheese" type of understanding as well, but this push up past the Rubicon was a necissary evil that forced the complexity of TA and how to trade, hence GV amazing trade post. I'm like you and miss the "cheer" aspect of the blogs, but as I get more serious to this might be a career change for me the more I undersand the controlled aspect to this community and seperating the party zone. You should be honered to be the lead party person! Mary, do me a favor and just post anything labeled as GV wanted, you don't need to manage anything. You will be the icon of the "fun" of the community and I can't think of anyone more deserving!. Just try it and see what comes. Honestly, I would love an off-topic area (and that doesn't mean it's not trade related) that I can be my crazy self without feeling that I'm diverting topics from the serious side. Just do it!! hehe BTW I don't think you read it before so I'll say it again, my first Lab blog will be dedicated to you and my main goal is that after reading EWT will "click" for you! We will see

GoodVibe4Ever ~ Last but not least brother. let me get past the obvious, 1.) VIX... yes, line off, but the 200d MA fight was my focus of posting, 2.) Yes, Fib.. stupid mistake. I'm watching OZ for some reason and it's the song "if I only had a brain"...lol Just thought that was funny with #2...lol Ok, on a serious note, From your option chart (purple vs. black) options based on chanel break. I'm still not seeing 766 as wave 2 where you are noticing a slow down on the bulls. Are you still going to count that wave 4 or change to 2? Also, I'm staying true to short until #280 chart resistance line is broke. I'm sticking to my plan as you define the base of success. I'm at your # 5 "when you start". From your other post, you defined 840 and I was asked how you got that number and I don't have an answer. I would love some guidance on how you are dealing with this and how your positions have changed. I don't want to follow you and hold you accountable, rather as support to my current plan or maybe change it based on your assesment.

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#287) On March 27, 2009 at 1:47 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Chart update:

Okay, here I am confronted with my fallen last okay spot "The emergency spot - 820" where the bulls closed above it. Now, I am losing my edge on the tape and even if I know VERY well that we're overbought and they will retrace, now I have to follow my plan and go to red code "hit and run operation". You can read what it's from my last blog. It can take few hours to few days. It all depends on the action that will fold based on my chart below.

This H&R spot.. I didn't know what it will be because it's out of my calculation. I only get it when I reach this point. Based on my reading of the chart tonight, the declining strength of the bulls today, and a nice well defined formation, I picked my hit and run spot. It's not an exact figure as before but it's within a defined formation you will see in the chart. It's 840 - 847.

This chart takes us to the old count that favor the bears, where wave 1 didn't end yet. This count is very credible one. As long as we don't break the red line, I am fine and I will hit and run.Once this formation break to the downside, so I have a chance to make things right again. A down opening will be a plus but not a must.

If after I hit and run, and the bulls keep running more over me, my stops will take half of my short positions out by the close or as late as Monday. If I am successful (I WILL), I will start winding down my short positions in orderly fashion with every pull back as I stated in my hit in run style in the last FAQ blog. 

I hope this added value to your thinking. Stay positive. Winning begin within.

SP Short term 03.27.09

  Enlarge   Live Chart  

GoodVibe

PS. I will be super busy tomorrow but I'll try to give you some heads up and chart updates if I can. I hope Russ will be around to update the chart above but it's easily built on your charting system. Also, you have the live link.

Note to self:

"Don't let your bad trades turn into investments. Allow for a margin of error. No approach is failsafe and any trader worth his or her salt has endured periods of pain. When trading, you may trip, but never fall. Ride the winners, try the losers but weed out the laggards. Rationalization has no place in trading. If you put a position on for a catalyst and it passes, take the risk off—win, lose or draw. Good traders know how to make money but great traders know how to take a loss. Hope is not a viable strategy. Hanging on laggards drains precious emotional capital along the way, as well as the unlimited amount of lost opportunity cost associated with tied up funds. Accepting the fact that you will be wrong is crucial. The key to successful trading is not avoiding being wrong but how quickly you can identify you are wrong so you can make a change and reposition yourself."


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#288) On March 27, 2009 at 9:50 AM, Mary953 (74.95) wrote:

Okay, everyone -

First Goodvibe lounge is to be found at http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=171167&t=01007737217973478225

But I expect to know what is going on in the market from there as well and I do expect that others are going to host as much as I do!

And Russ, I did read and am most flattered.  I hope to learn from that first lesson.  How do you want me to help with taxes- email, other side blog, etc?

Mary

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#289) On March 27, 2009 at 10:19 AM, burtman99 (26.58) wrote:

My apologies for repeating this question as I'm not sure where to post it. 

Just looking at this from another angle/side of the trade.  Have we completely ruled out that this could be a wave 4 instead of a wave 1?  Is it because we crossed the SPX 804?  I don't like that VIX triangle formation on the weekly charts.

Thanks

Burt

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#290) On March 27, 2009 at 10:29 AM, columbia1 wrote:

GV- I definitely applaud you and the amount of time you devote to putting these blogs together, it is truly mind-boggling the dedication required to consistently produce the quality you put forward every day, Thank-you!!

It is a lot easier to play with the charts for your own use, compared to putting them up for other people to see and understand!!!

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#291) On March 27, 2009 at 10:31 AM, mike512 (< 20) wrote:

Thanks GV, Russ.   I understand that explanation much better.  Funny Russ Pretcher said 7 years ago that we would have a financial crisis caused by credit derivatives, the gov't would try anything and everything, but nothing it did would work.

I agree with you there, and I know this is looking too far ahead.....but if W1 bottomed at 666, W2 (usually goes .50, 618) would top around 1000-1200 around aug, sept.  That next W3 down will be brutal if the .50 or .618 ret holds.....

you guys ever look at Nasdaq charts, or just S&P ?  the reason I ask is I thought I saw a leading diagnal on the Nasdaq after yesterdays close, and it wasn't as clear on the dow or SP...

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#292) On March 27, 2009 at 10:32 AM, goldfishka (51.57) wrote:

hello, i have bought SPY at 78.0, so looking at this chart my strategy should be to sell if we cross 814 or if 814 is not crossed to wait till 840 level to make a decision?

 thanks and sorry if this question sound stupid - i am very new

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#293) On March 27, 2009 at 10:39 AM, Sobornost (< 20) wrote:

Here's some Nasdaq charts I've been working on, comments welcome.  Russ, I'm looking forward to making contributions to the chart school:

Nasdaq 2 year daily:

3-27 Nasdaq 2 year daily

enlarge

Nasdaq 6 month 60 min:

3-27 Nasdaq 6 month 60 min

enlarge

Nasdaq 1 month 5 min:

3-27 Nasdaq 1 month 5 min

enlarge

Happy Friday!

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#294) On March 27, 2009 at 11:20 AM, ralphmachio (26.18) wrote:

Particularly appreciated the Note To Self under chart, as it applies to my current situation.  I'm just as worried about jumping on socks as I am to jump off my inverse ETF! I don't know if I'm hopeful, or if I cannot adjust to higher valuation of stocks I bought earlier in the month for 60% of their current price, and my belief that they will be that low again very soon, and way lower in the longer term.  I'm trying to figure out what price to sell 1/2 of my faz at, and I'm hopeful it goes above 25, at least. Judging from what i can gather from your chart, I'm just being hopeful...

thanks 

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#295) On March 27, 2009 at 11:56 AM, arboretum (28.38) wrote:

Goodvibe and friends.

I've noticed a lot of talk about ultra and ultrashort ETFs on here and I know GV doesn't like it and I think I know why. I have written a blog post to try to explain why on my own blog. I welcome any comments from those of you who know this better than I in case I have any details wrong, but I really aimed this at those asking questions like "what do you think of FAZ" or "how about SSO".

The short, ugly daemons

Thanks a lot for listening.

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#296) On March 27, 2009 at 12:00 PM, arboretum (28.38) wrote:

Goodvibe and friends.

I've noticed a lot of talk about ultra and ultrashort ETFs on here and I know GV doesn't like it and I think I know why. I have written a blog post to try to explain why on my own blog. I welcome any comments from those of you who know this better than I in case I have any details wrong, but I really aimed this at those asking questions like "what do you think of FAZ" or "how about SSO".

The blog is here.

Sorry for any earlier posts with broken links.

Thanks a lot for listening.

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#297) On March 27, 2009 at 12:06 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

Mike~

"I agree with you there, and I know this is looking too far ahead.....but if W1 bottomed at 666, W2 (usually goes .50, 618) would top around 1000-1200 around aug, sept.  That next W3 down will be brutal if the .50 or .618 ret holds....."

Presto! Exactly bud! This has been in the back of my mind ever sense the 804 break. I don't like to make blank guesses, but I to want to see blood on the streets before this is over and that wave 3 is going to be NASTY if it actually starts to form!

Sobo~ Fellow chart poster! I'm so happy for you. I'll take a look at them in a little while.

GV~ Thanks for the clarification on the "hit and run".

Goldfish~ Depends on your time-fram. We are in a A,b,C large upwave and we are talking about wave 1,2,3, of wave A. Hold long or ride the short wave is up to you based on your own risk and time-frames. Hope that helped!

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#298) On March 27, 2009 at 12:10 PM, GVdrone (< 20) wrote:

Was 815.57 close enough to bouncing off GV's d(813ish)?

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#299) On March 27, 2009 at 12:23 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

Sobo~ Excelent job man, I don't see one correction needed! We just need that last wave 5 to conclude and we shall see how much retracement we will get!

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#300) On March 27, 2009 at 1:00 PM, ekramer17 (< 20) wrote:

Russ/Sobo -

If I may, I believe that the end (4) should be labeled one peak to the right, at the point in early February where the index reached just south of 1600.  That appears to be the end of the flat.

Cabot

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#301) On March 27, 2009 at 1:24 PM, Sobornost (< 20) wrote:

Cabot thanks, that was GV's take too, I'll correct that before I update it again.

 

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#302) On March 27, 2009 at 2:01 PM, innerflame (< 20) wrote:

Russ-Sobo- Cabot- anyone want to help me understand today's market? I'm taking it in context of we are nearing quarter end- and within the charts structures of a retracement coming up.

Currently hitting 814- but is there a support there?

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#303) On March 27, 2009 at 2:14 PM, swank9 (< 20) wrote:

was wondering the same thing as innerflame.  it seemed to hit 813-814 and stop...

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#304) On March 27, 2009 at 2:32 PM, tahoestock (30.24) wrote:

Innerflame….Not sure how you trade or invest but maybe this will help.  Currently working wave{2} which is an A-B-C correction to wave {1} that ended at 666.79; according to GV wave {2} should correct to a minimum 1000.  That’s the Big Picture.  Within up wave {2}:  currently in wave (3) of the A-wave.  As you know 3-waves are usually the longest of the impulse waves (just not the shortest).  So, wave A still have some distance to go, then a corrective B wave, followed by a C wave up.  This is the short term picture.  As far as your question of support at 814:  if you follow GV and Russ (and TA in general) your question might be answered.  If you trade short time frames (or day trade) perhaps someone else could help?    

 

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#305) On March 27, 2009 at 2:56 PM, innerflame (< 20) wrote:

Thanks Tahoe-

I'm digesting all of that!  Inbetween tall gangly "I"m hungry" loud teen boy who just stumbled in from a week of school. He vents a while and then settles down. I seem to remember my older sons would do this as well. 

So are you in the Lake Tahoe area? My aunt,unc and their sons live in Incline Village.

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#306) On March 27, 2009 at 2:57 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

Here is an update of GV's chart.

Events of the day thus far, We broke one support line (I have it drawn a little different than GV, but it ultimately the same) and looking for the break of the black support line at the close. Maybe the last hour crunch can work in my favor for a change.

GVSPX15day

Enlarge

Tahoe, nice work on the explination bro!

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#307) On March 27, 2009 at 3:03 PM, tahoestock (30.24) wrote:

Innerflame/Russ....actually live in Incline Village.  Been here since 1991 so might even know your relatives.  Hey Russ...we have the same b-day (April 2, right?).  Very small world on this blog.

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#308) On March 27, 2009 at 3:05 PM, innerflame (< 20) wrote:

You probably do- they've been there a LONG time- their last name is VanDelinder- there's a few of them! ( They have 4 sons)

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#309) On March 27, 2009 at 3:23 PM, tahoestock (30.24) wrote:

Innerflame...okay, this is cool.  If it's the VanDelinder's I know, Jeff and Linda are good friends of ours.  We've met with the parents only a couple of times in their home.  Really nice folks!

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#310) On March 27, 2009 at 3:30 PM, innerflame (< 20) wrote:

YEP- that's them- he's my cousin- a few years older than me. Linda's wonderful. They will get a big kick out of knowing that I'm on this blog. My Uncle Harry is a big fan of mine ( he's a WW11 veteran- pilot- we share an interest in experimental aircraft- I used to own a 1946 Ercoupe- long time ago-but don't have a license-too much money!)

Please tell them Cousin Sharon says HI!

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#311) On March 27, 2009 at 3:32 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

Flam/Tahoe, that's pretty crazy. Very small world indeed.

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#312) On March 27, 2009 at 7:37 PM, Tutom (< 20) wrote:

GV and RUSS  -- Thanks so much for the chart Russ! It seems to be annotated the same way as my hand done chart from yesterday (which makes me feel very nervous :)). With Red (i) being just $28 in length, it seems coincidental that 28 + 804 (the top of Red (iii) = 832, where we ended up yesterday. Now, volume was down for this pullback today (good sign for Bulls). I'm wondering about two things:

1. I understand GV's situation and the "Hit and Run" (and hope everything went well today) but that aside, we're still looking at two possible scenarios. First, that we are still in Wave 1 and it runs to 840~845 or so. Second, we're in Wave 3 already, and about to blast off (Wave 3's being at least as long as Wave 1's). The question is how to position ourselves best for either scenario (not to mention that "Now for somethng completely different" scenario). I think we have to assign probabilities to the outcomes regardless of hit & run. What do you think the probabilities are now? I hit the sell button on some financials because they moved up well this morning. Later I pushed the cut bait button on a couple of shorts at S&P 815 (sigh). So, there is cash to deploy to short at 840 or go long at 840 or perhaps do nothing at 840 and do it somewhere else... Where is our next edge?

2. GV, can you let us know when you see topping formations as you see them? That would help a lot? Thank you.

Might not sound like it, but I've learned a lot this week. Have a great weekend!

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#313) On March 27, 2009 at 9:45 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

Tutom ~ What GV changed is the last wave 5 in the most recent chart. I completly agree with his assement which has given me way more confidence in the market falling soon. He is calling wave 5 a Ending Diagonal triangle(wedge). It does not follow the rules like wave 4 cannot be in wave 1

pp (36-40. EWT book) "An endding diagonal is a special type of wave that occurs primarily in the fifth wave position at times when the preceding move has gone "too far too fast," as Elliot put it".

If I may put in my $0.02, that is exacly what we have and I can't complain. We all go a major piece of wave one up! Rubicon was breached and wave 1 still took off to 832 level. It put us all on edge and we had to change wave counts and figure out what the hell was going on. "too far too fast" is the best explination i've heard about where we are sence 804 was broken. 

840-847 was a call of "if the current (wedge)" is broke to the upside. Brother, you paniced when the rubber band was already pulled to tight as GV put it. In the process of "too far too fast" we were in a dash to make any sence to the count. Wave 1 of 1 exteded, did wave 1 complete?, wave 5 extended, to come to the point where the chart makes sense again. The last 3 days IMHO gave everyone the time to stop, look at the charts and TA to figure out what the hell is going on.

You asked for Probabilities and the last time I did this I was so completly wrong it scares me, so take this with a MAJOR word of caution.

Option 1.) break wedge and test 847..ish and pull back for wave 2 = 20%

Option 2.) Current wedge hold and we drop from here = 70%

Option 3.) We have already ended wave 1 and 2 wave 3 is in play where 850 is broke = 10%

I hope this finds you well. My God do I hate doing Taxes..... I need to be rich so I don't tourcher myself...lol

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#314) On March 27, 2009 at 10:49 PM, Tutom (< 20) wrote:

Russ - Thank you for the thoughtful reply. Got it! The wedge makes perfect sense (when someone points it out). I've been watching FAS all day after drawing some trend lines, waiting to pounce on a break to the upper or lower line. I kept counting the waves up from the bottom and finally came to the conclusion that it's 3rd wave just went to high because of that invisible government hand. I believe it has already topped by the look of the little Japanese Candlesticks--doji. I'm feeling fortunate that my TZA order got rejected at the end of the day. The most important thing is to get set up for Wave 3.

Thanks again and have a good weekend! 

 

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#315) On March 27, 2009 at 11:15 PM, Mary953 (74.95) wrote:

Russ,

are you still at the taxes?

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#316) On March 28, 2009 at 8:22 AM, mattskin (< 20) wrote:

Tutom - Why have you decided to chart FAS and not the underlying index (rifin.x)?  I seen mixed ideas on charting the ultras instead of the underlying index.

My EWT book is in the mail, can't wait to get started!

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#317) On March 28, 2009 at 11:41 AM, jimmybroderick (< 20) wrote:

Hey Russ, GV, Columbia, Tutom or anyone who understands this well,

Any help you can give is appreciated.  If I am reading correctly, you're still operating under the idea that the overall market direction is DOWN.  We've entered into wave 4 (BIG PICTURE starting 10/07) and that wave began at what GV called the TIP OF THE BOTTOM at some point earlier this week or late last (666). This assumes that at some point we'll come back to test these lows.  That said wave 5's can truncate and we may never get there again.  

So far so good?  

Reason I ask is because this  Ending Diagonal Wgede thing has me all sorts of confused.  What wave 4 entered wave 1? Daily, weekly, monthly?  I'm thrown off.  And if we are indeed in an EndingDiagonal Wedge are we in wave 4 in the big picture overall? When I was thinking this was wave 4 of the big picture I figured it should/would last 4-6 months given the extent of wave 1.  

 Am I anywhere near making sense?  Or should I slowly step away from the computer?  

Thanks for your help and responses. 

Jim

Here's some Phish for your viewing/listening pleasure which makrs what you believe we're seeing.  :)

The Wedge

 

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#318) On March 28, 2009 at 2:44 PM, Tutom (< 20) wrote:

mattskin  You're right. The underlying index is better and I use it.  I use FAS and FAZ for intraday trades, and for hedging purposes (for a week or so), and need to see signs of bottoming or topping in both the index and the ETF.

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#319) On March 28, 2009 at 2:49 PM, Mary953 (74.95) wrote:

This was promised to several, so the link goes on all three posts! 

RUSS AND EVERYONE ELSE STILL WRESTLING WITH TAXES  --------

It took most of the day, but here is your itemized list of how to break out business expenses.  It is a line by line, real English, explanation of what to do.  Russ, you have to do a separate one for each business, I'm afraid, but this may make it a bit less painful.  Best of luck all, I hope this helps some.  (Special request - while I am so tied up with this stuff, can we bring back those lovely little yellow cheese circles on the charts?  I just don't have the mental power to extract myself from this stuff right now.  I have reached the point where I used to tape the firm telephone number on my monitor in big print so I didn't have to come out of "Tax Mode"  It really is a mindset.

Mary

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=171890&t=01007737217973478225

 

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#320) On March 28, 2009 at 8:49 PM, columbia1 wrote:

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#321) On March 28, 2009 at 11:19 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

Columbia~ Thanks bro for the vid. He did the same thing that GV once counted that I don't understand. I need to finish the book..lol Anyways, they count wave "b" going higher than 5 and that's just an odd thing for me. Still lots to learn!

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#322) On March 29, 2009 at 10:03 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

 First please read this post if you missed it. Thanks!

Everyone -  forget about wave 4. We are in wave 1 of A of {2} UP. If we pull back from here, we’re pulling back in 2 of A of {2}. Pease eliminate any prior counts and concentrate on the count at hand so we don’t confuse others.

The best choice for the current wave is @  #287 and this is where my money is 3 to 1 short. There’s a coming down wave 2 that can come from 840-850 levels where I go all shorts or from the current top of the wave where my original plan will come back to life.

As long as we’re within this wedge formation, I’ll assume we’re still in wave 1 of A and not 3 of A. Otherwise we have to look deep into chart # 220. Also, read Russ # 313 for his good understanding of my current count. I am still short and the hit and run will not kick in until 840-847. If we break the wedge to the downside first, then I am in the safe side and my emergency spot is back in town and we will see where the retracement will take us down.  

I’ll add more in my Monday’s update but I function now based on the followings:

1. Wave {1} since Oct. 2007 ended March. 9, 2009
2. Wave 1 of A of {2} didn’t end yet.
3. There’s a downside risk from these levels or from higher levels @ 740
4. I am still short full position and will not close any befoe this formation get resolved either way. A minor break up is fine as per the chart.
5. I’ll never add any more longs before a pullback even from higher levels

Does that make sense? I tried to write the same in different ways.

Sobor – Good Charts @ 293. The only correction needed is wave 4 position, which is lower. The rest is perfect. 

Russ – Thanks buddy for all the efforts and time you out last week across many blogs. And thanks for updating my charts.

Have a profitable week everybody but remember it’s the journey and nothing but the journey.

GoodVibe

Note to self: Time heal everything under the sun as long as you're patient within the context of a plan.


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#323) On March 29, 2009 at 10:53 PM, Mary953 (74.95) wrote:

GoodVibe,

Did you just say that we have finished wave 5 completely and are starting over again with a totally new count at wave 1 or have I totally lost what is left of my mind?

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#324) On March 29, 2009 at 11:35 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Dear Mary -

I said:

LARGE Wave {1} from 2007 ended. No more waves left to count there! No 4 No 5No v No iv. GONE!

We're in a correction wave {2} up that is A B C Zig Zag (or it can even be A B C D E Triangle. Do not know yet. We will see).

In either case, we're in Wave A of that A B C or A B C D E Triangle

We're in wave 1 of that A wave

We're in last wave 5 of that wave 1

We're waiting for the ending diagonal that is wave 5 of 1 to finish so we can start wave 2 of A of {2}

So narrow your focus:

We're waiting for wave 2 down to start once this diagonal break DOWN. After we finish wave 2 down, we will have wave 3 up where I should start covering my shorts and adding my longs at the end of wave 2 (which is the start of wave 3)

In the book terms: We're in minute wave {v} (undergoing) of minor wave 1 of intermediate wave (A) of primary wave {2} (started March 9, 2009). Please read the book everybody! The chart in # 287 is the current most applicable chart as well as the main charts in the blog way above. They are the same with more detailed update. Is anyone getting confused with this chart?

I don't know how to explain this more than that. If someone can step in and try to put it in different words, I'll appreciate it.

GoodVibe

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#325) On March 29, 2009 at 11:39 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

In comment #322 - This should read:

3. There’s a downside risk from these levels or from higher levels @ 840 (not 740)

GoodVibe

 

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#326) On March 30, 2009 at 12:03 AM, kstarich (31.10) wrote:

Found the chart! #287

GV- THanks for the update, I think I get it.  I will close some of my longs @840'ish and wait for break down to add short for wave 2 down and then look for support and evidence of 3 up to add long.

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#327) On March 30, 2009 at 12:08 AM, anchak (99.85) wrote:

Having an ending diagonal on the first ( post a vicious Bear {1} down completion) - seems fairly justifiable.

Also on simple probabilistic rule....you need to have some modicum of proportionality maintained amongst waves ( this is where the Fib ratios come into play).

This was achieved in correctives (ii) and (iv) marked in red here

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3546/3389403626_3e1b2ba2d9_o.jpg

BY GV

This makes the current a good possible 5 ...especially given that its developing a wedge on an UPTREND...I think that's important....because that should provide some room for a decent Corrective 2 .... ( look for a 31.8 retrace to 778).. 50% is also possible - and keep that on radar - but don't peg your hopes on it - for exiting earlier shorts!

At least that's the likely thesis!

 

 

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#328) On March 30, 2009 at 12:21 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Anchak - I am not saying it will happen but remember that wave two most of times take away almost all the gains from wave 1. You can take a look for wave {i} and {ii} to get an idea of what I am talking about. You can find it in the book under wave personality starting p. 78. That said, I'll keep in mind to ring the cash register along the way, raise cash, add longs, expect the strong hands to hold the 50% and sure the lows. We will take it one day at a time. I believe this week will be to our side unlike last week. Be good brother!

Lady K - As I said on the lounge. Wave e of {V} is “five of five” wave ie. "Ending wave" and they may truncate. So 840 might never come at all. Watch for a decisive break to the diagonal. See you tomorrow Sis.

I am done here. Good Night all!

GoodVibe

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#329) On March 30, 2009 at 9:19 AM, binve (< 20) wrote:

Goodvibe (or anybody else),

I am definitely still a newbie when it comes to ElliotWave and I am not finished with the book yet. But I am starting to get the hang of it (or at least I am trying) :). Anyways I made some annotations on the current rally and wanted to see if I am interpreting the overall structure correctly (3rd wave and 5th wave extensions, triangles, direction changes, labeling of the motive waves, etc.)

Whenever anybody has a chance, no rush! Thanks! 

Enlarge

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#330) On March 30, 2009 at 10:37 AM, ranger66 (< 20) wrote:

Elliot Wave makes no difference at all right now. Take that to the bank.

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#331) On March 30, 2009 at 10:37 AM, VIS46 (25.87) wrote:

GV& Russ

Are we still on the origan plan to buy on all drops in SPX & Dow.Please clarify. 

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#332) On March 30, 2009 at 10:37 AM, VIS46 (25.87) wrote:

GV& Russ

Are we still on the origan plan to buy on all drops in SPX & Dow.Please clarify. 

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#333) On March 30, 2009 at 10:40 AM, swank9 (< 20) wrote:

so we broke 791, where are we at then?

 

also, which blog is everybody posting in today?  too many blogs...lol

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#334) On March 30, 2009 at 10:44 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Heads up -

The bulls are retreating to the Rubicon. We're testing the Rubicon from the other side of the river. We’re still above it. And now we're at it!

Current 787.02

GoodVibe

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#335) On March 30, 2009 at 10:48 AM, columbia1 wrote:

Next level of support should be 766.20

currently 786.64

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#336) On March 30, 2009 at 10:55 AM, Tutom (< 20) wrote:

GV,

What is the exact number you've calculated for the Rubicon? I was seening the Bull's Line of Defense at around 875~880.

Thanks! 

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#337) On March 30, 2009 at 10:55 AM, columbia1 wrote:

GV- why do you have the start of your Fib. lines (#287) at 847.85, instead of 832.98, the high?

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#338) On March 30, 2009 at 10:58 AM, Tutom (< 20) wrote:

Just re-did my Fib Fan and I get 782.5 as the approx line.

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#339) On March 30, 2009 at 11:00 AM, GVdrone (< 20) wrote:

Tutom, can you recheck, I think your 'Bull's Line of Defense' is 5~ too high. the blue line is a bit below 778

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#340) On March 30, 2009 at 11:10 AM, Tutom (< 20) wrote:

Well, when I use GV's chart I do get around 778, but I re-did the chart with Fib retracement from 832 and get approx 782.5. Maybe we need to some help to get on the same page as to where we are retracing from. Anyone?

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#341) On March 30, 2009 at 11:22 AM, columbia1 wrote:

38.2% retracement should be 769.26

GV, I used your link to the live chart in #287, and annotated the fib lines, I am worried that might have changed your chart, after I was done I noticed a note you had to Russ on the chart. Please let me know if that was possible.

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#342) On March 30, 2009 at 11:24 AM, jlmjlm77 (99.36) wrote:

Be very careful unless you know what you are doing.  My guess is the market will try to fool everyone.

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#343) On March 30, 2009 at 11:24 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Tutom - I didn't calculate it. It's the current point on the chart. Live chart

Columbia - It was the EXPECTED line but now the current one is 832.98 so lower the Fib

binve - great chart but we have to work it out tonight. Stay tuned. What I like about is that you put the book into the chart to explain why I annotate the chart the way I did. Very good! Keep it coming and I'll correct one or two things but the idea is great. I love it. Thanks again. 

Current 788.19

GoodVibe

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#344) On March 30, 2009 at 11:30 AM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

I promised Mary a chart with Cheese.. Sorry I couldn't get it done yesterday, I was kidnapped and taken out for a eairly B-day dinner... :)

GVSPX15day

Enlarge

***NOTICE*********** This is the cheese area that i'm looking for.

GV~ It was my pleasure, I hope you had an enjoyable weekend. I'm in the green with SDS, so it's nothing but gravy from here. I'll come back and read through all the posts, but I got some fires to put out this morning. Sure does feel like a Monday.

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#345) On March 30, 2009 at 11:39 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Russ! Check my live chart to this chart above. I asked you not to update it. There's still some work left and more data needed to call such place a buying opportunity. Please! Disregard Russ's update for my chart. Wait for my update. Fib numbers changed and the buying (cheese) area changed. Be careful Russ when you put such a blank call with haste.   

Columbia -  Nothing happened to my chart. You update the one you save from mine on your computer only.

Current 785.25

GoodVibe

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#346) On March 30, 2009 at 11:43 AM, binv271828 (< 20) wrote:

Hey Russ, Thanks for the chart! I have a question though. You have a (v) terminating in the wedge, but (v) is not a complete triangle (a-b-c-d-e), it only made an (a-b-c). Is that allowable?

It might be, I have no idea (I am still on Chapter 2) :)

Thanks man!

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#347) On March 30, 2009 at 12:10 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

Gv~ Sorry bro, I didn't look at your chart before I posted mine.. my bad.

~binv, Look at GV's chart. His count is different than mine.

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#348) On March 30, 2009 at 12:21 PM, anchak (99.85) wrote:

Binve and others.....I think the old diagonal/wedge call I think has changed...my feeling is we have wave 2 start from 832 itself....

and we have  wave (i) of 2 going from 832 to 815 and a (ii) a/b/c corrective from 815 to 823....and current huge (iii)  wave down from 823....ongoing..... I do not think we are even complete on wave 1 of this (iii) wave......

Current 38.1% retracement is around 769-773.

My 2cents..... 

 

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#349) On March 30, 2009 at 12:30 PM, binv271828 (< 20) wrote:

anchak, Ahhh... I see. Yeah, based on the hard rally up and the stall for a few days at the 825-830 where it couldn't push through resistance, it makes sense that we will get a correction that tends to be motive in nature. Interesting stuff!. Yep, the more I read about EW the more I like it :)

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#350) On March 30, 2009 at 12:45 PM, Tutom (< 20) wrote:

Thanks anchak. Good thinking!

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#351) On March 30, 2009 at 12:49 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Russ - It's not the count. It's the Fib. Positions you put on that chart that once get corrected, the buying area will change dramatically. Remember now others trust you to make calls and you can’t put such a chart in haste not only without weighing other possible outcome but also with wrong Retracement levels. BTW - I am happy that your positions were made whole and little bit more. :) Time heal all. Just be careful and read my next post tonight and give it a good thought.

PS. When you update my chart from the live links and keep it as it is, it's fine to keep it in my style and under my name. But when you change something, remember to put it in your own style so people won't take it as mine. I am proud of your work but I don't want to confuse people between our works. ;) And remember that the short term count move so if you update a chart with an old count, it might not be accurate. I know I am the one who asked to update mine but I didn't expect this issue that will come from posting your chart. I apologize. Thanks again!

GoodVibe

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#352) On March 30, 2009 at 1:14 PM, innerflame (< 20) wrote:

Anchak- Binve- Can you direct me to the chart you are referring to? I've gotten lost with all the charts on this post.. thanks.

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#353) On March 30, 2009 at 1:17 PM, binv271828 (< 20) wrote:

Hey flame! Not referring to any particular chart yet. The old count looks invalid so we are theorizing on what the new count will look like. GV said he will post a new chart tonight.

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#354) On March 30, 2009 at 1:24 PM, innerflame (< 20) wrote:

Thanks! I don't have a great feel for what is happening- and try to assign some structure to it. Maybe that's what I have to do-is wait to see how today plays out...

I'll go back to the lounge and reassure Mary that she's not the only confused one..

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#355) On March 30, 2009 at 1:37 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

All -

1. We're in wave 2 down.

2. The current trend is DOWN short term.

3. The long term trend is UP, which started March 9.

This is all you have to pay attention to. There is two scenarios for this wave 2 that I am working on but I'll need more time. I'll update the post not only the charts tonight as I promised every Monday.

Going long or short now is not a viable choice for me. We're in the middle of things and it can go either way.

Your best choice to short was above 820 and it's gone. If we top again 832, shorting is danger.

Buying here is also danger unless you believe wave 2 is going to be flat instead of Zig Zag. Wave 2 are vicious and can retrace back near the start of wave 1 but they bring the beauty of wave 3, the longest wave of all.

So, it all depends on your time frame. If you're day trader, this setup is no good. If you're weekly or more, wait for my update to weigh your options with clear understanding of the downside risk and see if you like the setup.

If you're a buy and hold investor, any pull back including this could be a great opportunity to accumalate core positions and add on all pull backs. I am not an investor. I will not choose for you, this is your job to decide.

I hope this added value to your thinking. Gotta go. See after the bell.

Current 788.16

GoodVibe  

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#356) On March 30, 2009 at 1:45 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

~GV, - No it's my bad, I just jumped into this morning concluding wave 5 in my head without really digging into this mornings activity and what wave 5 looks like. I had a bunch of stuff (work related) and just drew it up. I'm having a hell of a time counting it as an ending diagnal or how you counted it, and once again we are in options again.

Option 1.) Wave 5 ended 832 (diagonal ending). and we are in wave (a) down of 2

Option 2.) Wave 5 ended 826 and we are in wave (C) of 2

Option 3.) We go up from here to new highs (I'm sure what the count would be if that happened.)

I will update your charts (if you ask) but will not change them. I like editing my own with my own color/count design nonethless and refer you yours instead. 

I think it's time for a new blog, It will be a good starting point for the analysis on the waves down here.

Thanks as always!

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#357) On March 30, 2009 at 1:49 PM, PrestonCheek (32.60) wrote:

Hey everybody, I'm at home now for awhile and will be joining in slowly again, I still have my nights and days confused. I bought some SRS at 52 friday and willl get out soon with my stops.

I hope all is doing great and I will get caught up. I don't know excactly where we are with the counts but I'll get it soon.

Again I hope all is well.

Preston

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#358) On March 30, 2009 at 1:51 PM, innerflame (< 20) wrote:

That was just what I needed to read. Thank you GV. I'll go read my trading books now and get my longs list together- and wait for your update. Smoldering away, Sharon

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#359) On March 30, 2009 at 1:57 PM, Mary953 (74.95) wrote:

As feared, no time for lounge and this, so with no one at lounge, I will watch here for a bit to try and catch back up.  Part of being lost is just not keeping up with charts for a few days in an up and down situation.  That cost in caps and in RL.  I need to digest what I am reading so it becomes more than words and becomes understanding. 

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#360) On March 30, 2009 at 2:32 PM, herztical (28.14) wrote:

...ahhhh so this is where everyone is.  Been busy last week and had little in the game so no communicae from me.

Started to nibble a little here on some of my longer term positions (all comod related) and sold April calls against it. Also, still have bull call spread on SRS.  For all you non-option people out there, call it a hedge your hedge strategy.

-785

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#361) On March 30, 2009 at 3:08 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Heads up - 

The bulls are holding up with their lives at/on/over the Rubicon! If they get pushed back to the other side of the river, they will have to cross it again. In this case, the bears will build again positions to push them further down when they try the crossing again.

Eh! And you want to be a trader. Round trip we came back!!! If trading was easy, everybody would do it, right? :) TA on the other side is easy even a cave (wo)man can do it. 

Current  781.04 (Low 779.81 AT the Rubicon)

GoodVibe

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#362) On March 30, 2009 at 3:13 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

Interesting day today on the charts. I took out the counts for the most part until I read what GV concludes tonight. I have my own openion, but i'm going to keep that to myself for now. The trend lines is what is catching my eye currently. Pretty interesting battle going on IMHO. Just thought I would share.

 SPX15day

Enlarge, Live

 

**Notice - read at your own risk***

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#363) On March 30, 2009 at 3:21 PM, swank9 (< 20) wrote:

i'm a little confused.  do we head back up briefly at the 779 level before we push back down?  or do we stop at the 779ish level and head back up from here?

 

hollerrrrr

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#364) On March 30, 2009 at 3:31 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

#362 also disregard  my Fib. We don't know where to place it yet based on wave 5, I'm just have it there to place latter. I should of removed it so I didn't confuse anyone. Sorry about that.

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#365) On March 30, 2009 at 3:51 PM, kstarich (31.10) wrote:

Russ

783.75

I have a feeling we are going to zig zag up from here then possibly down again.  I am waiting to see what GV says.  I closed SDS today.

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#366) On March 30, 2009 at 4:01 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

kstarich The more and more I do this the more I see where the multiple buy/sell points as GV does is essential. You take what the market gives you. My funds are way to small for that, but I keep in the back of my mind if I was playing with large money and I would of off-loaded some of the short today. It's a safe move considering. Because I'm "all or nothing" I'm playing a much risker game. I'm watching the trend lines very closely to see what overall direction hold true. Next 2-3 days should explain the story in more detail. I would put more % probability in the Zig-zag count, but not by much. The other options are still very viable.

 

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#367) On March 30, 2009 at 4:03 PM, innerflame (< 20) wrote:

I was watching IBM-LOTS of volume on buying at the end- can someone who is more knowledgable about these things- help me understand why that happens?

Is that the big funds pouring money in? Does that ever mean anything- since iBM is such a huge company? It's probably in a book somewhere but this was easier at the moment:-)). 

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#368) On March 30, 2009 at 4:13 PM, Mary953 (74.95) wrote:

Sharon,

I find that a book doesn't really help you until you have read it so many times that the portions come to mind without second glance.  You have internalized them.  I don't think anyone except GV is at that point nor will we be for a while.

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#369) On March 30, 2009 at 4:28 PM, innerflame (< 20) wrote:

I completely agree-At this point I'm just trying to get the "lingo" down. I am definitely  in the Elementary School phase. - Somewhere around 1st-2nd grade ( I can write my name).

I find the psychology part of this so interesting (guess that fits with my work). It appears to be the major part of the puzzle. The factual- left brain stuff is just what it is. The decison making, choice phase gets all twisted with the fears, perceptions and internal messages- lots of them so unconscious that I don't even know they are there. Good thing I enjoy this! And I still have money to invest. I know  there are many who just plain lost it all.

Thanks for being a support here (I know i've said that before). I worked with mid 40's- 50's white male executives when I was a financial analyst- and i was the token young female. All the emotional stuff was hidden behind closed doors (or alcohol) for these men so I'm always interested in that part.

Oops- ramblin along again. Looking forward to the next charts.