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GoodVibe4Ever (< 20)

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GoodVibe Market Vibes - Dude, gold is prepared to break out big time!

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October 04, 2009 – Comments (36) | RELATED TICKERS: GLD , SLV

"I realized technical analysis didn't work when I turned the charts upside down and didn't get a different answer." Warren Buffett.

I like Warren and his quotes and find great wisdom in them including the one above. ;) Here's an example of the upside down chart of gold that gives you actually a different answer than the normal one! It says; "Dude, gold has bottomed and is prepared to break out big time!"

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Unfortunately, we don't trade the "upside down" one, we trade this one:

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For those who present only one side of an analysis that fits their conviction and pass it as "The Only Technical Analysis of Gold You Need Right Now", if my first chart is pretty telling that we have a bottom in gold, then why the second one doesn't give you a great alarm that gold is not bottoming as you believe but topping? Not only twice but three times!

If you follow my technical analysis of precious metal carefully, you will know that I called for them to have a run up until the dollar finds footings. Click here to read this blog and my comments below it to see how I analyzed and traded silver, picking the third top in a row here in CAPS. My third call for a new lower high in silver @ $17ish (as well as a move for gold from $860 to $1000ish) was no brainier. Now, it's really the tough call.

If you keep focusing on the trees instead of the forest, I hope this mental exercise you got from this blog gave you a pause to think and question. By the way, I claim no super power but I am always willing not only to see both sides but also consider them and provide them in my analysis. I hope you will do too. I thought to come and tell you at this junction when almost everyone is expecting and saying that gold and silver are heading to the moon and this pullback from above $1000 is just building momentum, to reconsider. If I am wrong, I will be happy not only to come and say so but also thank you and join you. For now, this is where I stand.

For another mental exercise, how about if we flip the chart over instead of upside down, can we tell how the gold's chart will look like in the future? Yes, sir! But don't use this one against me if it will not look exactly the same. :)

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I want you to understand that this blog is not only about gold alone but also silver and miners as well as the US Dollar, major currencies, commodities, and equities. In this market, all rise together while the dollar falls, and all fall together while the dollar rises.

When and if the dollar rises (from my last call, so far so good), you don't want to be in anything but US dollars or on the short side of the market. This is what I believe and this is where I have my bets on. Sometimes right, sometimes wrong, but always put my money where my mouth is!

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As Sinch said in his blog; "Sometimes, the best analysis is the simplest." I couldn't agree more!

For more market analysis (simple and in depth), click here. You will find market calls and short summary about market direction as well as frequent chart updates, live chat room, and much more. 

As usual, I wish you as much as you wish for yourselves and even more.

GoodVibe
Mr. Lucky

PS. I hope Sinch will take this blog as a productive critique to his buddy and guru, Jim Sinclair's technical analysis as well as himself. It's in the spirit of sharing in hope it might add value. I found his blog I referenced to be very entertaining but bias to say the least and I thought it's relating to this blog so I decided to bring it up, Dude. :) Be happy!

36 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On October 04, 2009 at 7:42 PM, fmahnke (89.28) wrote:

GV,

You may be the best technical analyst I've read and I will soon sell the rest of my very profitable GLD position,

I am curious if you have a recommended best short among the miners.

I   disagree that their is ever a time when it makes sense to be completely short in stocks,  I'm still holding SWHC (with trepadation based on the fundamentals) and BEAT which I beleive in both from a fundamental and a TA perspective.

As always your opinons, as well as your website/chat room are greatly appreciated.  

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#2) On October 04, 2009 at 7:45 PM, anchak (99.84) wrote:

Wow!  This is worth a rec just for innovativeness.....

I am with you on this one - just because of the Dollar chart I shared with you.....

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#3) On October 04, 2009 at 8:23 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Thanks fmahnke for your kind words. Shorting miners expose you to unlimited risk and gives you only a possible 100% gain unless you use put options, which I don't recommend although I use them myself. I use ZSL (double short silver) as my favorite vehicle to trade (read here). As all ultra ETFs, it has unlimited gains with only 100% maximum loss. Just make sure to know how to trade it or it can backfire at you even if silver goes down. If silver continue in trend down, ZSL will reward those how traded it. I hope this helped.

By the way, I am not sure if you know that I also own SWHC as I communicated in the chat room (here's a chart link). So, for sure there's always something that will go against any trend but why I should bet heavily against the trend when I can profit more by betting with it?

Anchak - I knew you will get at least a kick out of it. Many people would love to see your dollar chart that you shared with us in the chat room. Short explanation will be great as well. Thanks in advance for your time.

GoodVibe

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#4) On October 04, 2009 at 9:30 PM, Rebkong1 (< 20) wrote:

GV

 

i respect your technical analysis you are very good at what you do...but just as you were wrong about the fall of the sp, dow, (market) at the last H&S pattern back in june you are wrong about GLD...the fundamentals of GLD FAR outweigh the technicals..GOLD .. we are in an "real" inflationary point (expansion of the money supply) even within a deflationary environment ...

 

as i said i respect your analysis but you will be wrong on this one 

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#5) On October 04, 2009 at 10:06 PM, Option1307 (29.69) wrote:

Hilarious title GV...

And wow, just wow, this is a rather bold call on you part. I agree that the USD will likely bottom out for the near term with a slight upward correction before it eventually resumes it's fall. So I am with you in terms of overall market/miners direction, but I have to say that your magnitude of the trend is way beyond my view. At least in terms of miners.

I can see gold breaking back down to the mid-800's, but that would be about it IMO. If (and I do expect) the market corrects significantly downwards, I believe this will push people to stay/add to their gold positions out of fear. Therefore, this would stabilize the price of gold and preventing it from going as low as you are betting. Yes, very simplistic, but as you mentioned, simplicity sometimes rules...

Good food for thoguht as usual GV, thanks for that. Good luck on your call!

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#6) On October 04, 2009 at 11:19 PM, uclayoda87 (29.18) wrote:

 

I doubt that I would be lucky enough to buy gold at less than $900 again, but I would if I had the opportunity.  I sold out of my gold position about 2 weeks ago in anticipation of some buying opportunities in October or November.  If the stocks I’m looking at don’t reach my buy in points, then I’ll buy CEF to preserve my buying power.  I do believe that the US dollar is in the beginning of its short-term bounce off the index 76 low, but my imagination is not good enough to envision a long-term strong US dollar with indefinite QE by the government, unless other governments drive their currency to zero faster.  Unfortunately, I believe that the US will be number one in this race.

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#7) On October 05, 2009 at 3:30 AM, tg4nfl (< 20) wrote:

interesting read good vibe, it sounds like you are subscribing to the deflation camp currently. I am watching IBM as that chart does not look promising at all. I'm starting a small short position and watching it

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#8) On October 05, 2009 at 5:31 AM, kaskoosek (63.83) wrote:

I love the sheep.

GV

I would only like to add some thing constructive to the discussion. This is not trolling.

Gold was overvalued during march when the market reached new lows. Now it no only slightly overvalued, but it is still one of the safest investments around.

 

The fundamentals are still backing gold. Flipping the chart around is nonsense, I would rather some one chart gold as a ratio of money (m1 or m2) since 2001. Not M3, because it is a bit volatile.

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#9) On October 05, 2009 at 8:30 AM, cthomas1017 (94.65) wrote:

GV!
That might just be the greatest "bait n switch" that I have ever witnessed.  Bravo for the analysis and the creative approach to making your point! :)

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#10) On October 05, 2009 at 9:12 AM, PrestonCheek (31.94) wrote:

GV, I will agree with you on this one.

There are entirely to many people in Gold now, to many commercials telling people to buy Gold and to much optimism that gold will go higher in the future.

It's a classic case of be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.

I have no skin in Gold so it doesn't matter to me, but anyone holding large positions in gold should at least look to trim their positions, or hedge.

 Thanks GV, for your time and creative technical analysis.

Preston

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#11) On October 05, 2009 at 10:44 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Sorry guys for my late reply. I had been busy today in a personal matter!

Reb - All we post here is in the spirit of sharing and exposing others to another point of view. At least this what I think. I hope we're not here to be proved right or wrong. That said, if I to be wrong, you got the benefit of learning on my expense. For my gold call, only time will tell. For your comment:

"we are in an "real" inflationary point (expansion of the money supply) even within a deflationary environment."

I am really not good with lofty economic words and I leave this for smarter people than myself but your statement sounded to me like an oxymoron! If someone who can call himself or herself smart enough to detail why, please take the mic.

Option - Aim to please! ;) I still believe that there's a lot of psychology and over reactions from gold buyers and when some big dude hits the exit, chances are that few people will be around to do the bidding. That said, I believe gold is not the best trade to make money of. It's either dull or erratic. There are better places but if you have to go trading precious metals, silver will do you better long or short. The chart above was just a mental exercise to deliver my views in a different way.

UC - According to my charts that are subject to be wrong, you might even get it cheaper than $900, so better get a bigger bag. (no pun intended). If you have long term view of gold (more than three years, I believe buying gold is a wise alternative for a prudent investment). Good Luck!

Kask - I never thought of you in the light you thought I would. My short list of trolls is preserved for only three people and they fluctuate in and out of it. You never been there and I hope no one ever be in it. 

It's funny you call those who disagree with you "sheep". Most people believe that gold is going UP, then where is the herd mentality here. If it's anywhere, it's not in the camp of gold bears.

For the upside chart - you missed the whole point of it. It was meant for those who say that gold is ready to fly because of the H&S formation brought up by sinch arguing that this is all you need to know about TA when it comes to gold. :( So I just turned the table (here the chart) on him and those who might think the same to let them tell me what if the formation in the chart is the upside down, what would they think?

They didn't say anything yet? Got it?

For your statement:

Gold was overvalued during march when the market reached new lows. Now it no only slightly overvalued, but it is still one of the safest investments around.

I guess you meant it's not overvalued now unlike March due to the equities' rise, correct? If this is true, then what happen if and when equities start falling again? will that make gold overvalued again?

CT - Thanks! Glad you got a kick out of it. When the blog idea hit me, I just knew I had to do it. It was a lot fun.

Preston - Nice to see you brother. I agree with your idea that the majority are always wrong at extremes. First lesson in the psychology of trading. 

Have a good night everybody!

GoodVibe

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#12) On October 06, 2009 at 3:08 AM, kaskoosek (63.83) wrote:

GV

" I guess you meant it's not overvalued now unlike March due to the equities' rise, correct? If this is true, then what happen if and when equities start falling again? will that make gold overvalued again?"

 

Unless the government reigns in spending, I don't think that the market will fall. Gold is always there, companies can vanish and reappear. That is a huge advantage. Equities are more susceptible to shocks.

 

Disclosure: I only hold silver and palladium. The only reason why dollars have any value left is because it is liquid right now. Otherwise there are no fundamentals backing it up. That is why I believe gold will continue to increase in price. 

 

 

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#13) On October 06, 2009 at 9:11 AM, 100ozRound (29.44) wrote:

There are market forces beyond what your charts will show

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#14) On October 06, 2009 at 9:20 AM, bothisellhigher (28.92) wrote:

I look at the chart of Power Share UUP Dollar Index and do not see any signs of the dollar "finding footing." only a continuing decline of lower lows and lower highs...I do see support at the 22.40 area and if we get a sollid bounce off that area then maybe you will be proven right...Looking at the chart for gold, I do see your double and then triple top...it seems to me that the third top is the dangerous one to  your thesis as it strongly appears to be a second shoulder of a now fully formed inverse head and shoulder formation...a particularly potent "bullish" formation.  The penetration (up) of the ascending triangle is strongly "bullish" yet you seem to shrug it off as "not seeing the forest."  Further, a second ascending triangle has formed that also is in danger of upward penetration...  I will say that if the baseline (of that h&s formation) at approximately 1033 is penetrated upwards, the gold bull has a much larger probability of charging up than heading down...and if prices bounce once again down from 1030, and penetrate your red uptrend line... the gold bear becomes probable.  Until one of those two things happen, it is, in my opinion, not appropriate to "predict" one way or the other.  At any rate, I feel the answer is forthcoming.. We are indeed at an interesting point in time. 

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#15) On October 06, 2009 at 9:30 AM, Rebkong1 (< 20) wrote:

GV

 

We are not only doubling the money supply by throwing in artificial money with stimulus packages, cash for clunkers, etc but more importantly the fed is monetizing (buying the debt the treasury issues) the debt, with printed dollars out of nowhere with no value that is debasing the dollar and driving up prices with each day that comes....all the while this is happening to chase deflationary measures in the market...It is not only possible but , given current practices of the government and FED, that we will be in a depression very soon..BUT the big differences in this one compared to the one in the 30's is where a nickel could buy you a lot back in the GD ..you may have to pay 5000 dollars for a loaf of bread in this one

 I understand you are a chart reader by trade..but fundamentals override the "beauty" of any chart dude..and you are making a call that will not only run u over, but it will bury you... 

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#16) On October 06, 2009 at 4:29 PM, XMFSinchiruna (27.71) wrote:

Well, I hope that your disastrous call on the eve of gold's dramatic termination of the 18-month corrective cycle settles once and for all the folly of trading gold solely on technicals without properly and carefully addressing the complexity of underlying fundamental macroeconomic drivers. Party on, Dude.

 

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#17) On October 06, 2009 at 4:33 PM, Sozurmama (22.36) wrote:

BURN!

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#18) On October 06, 2009 at 4:38 PM, pastordisaster (< 20) wrote:

Owned!!!!!

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#19) On October 06, 2009 at 11:33 PM, Tastylunch (29.24) wrote:

TMFSinchiruna

I'm dissapointed. That was pretty classless.

You are better than that my friend.

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#20) On October 06, 2009 at 11:54 PM, kstarich (30.76) wrote:

GV

You know I laughed so hard and still laughing thinking about it.  I have never in my life seen someone so determined to justify a lousy trade that they turn the chart UPSIDE DOWN!  Now I'm laughing again.  Did you read my blog on June 3rd? Well Here is the new one just in case you're still short.

A gold correction is no where in the astrology!

In fact GV some of my miners are up over 30% to 50% since August 17th.  DUDE WHAT ARE YOU THINKING?

Good luck friend

Kstar

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#21) On October 07, 2009 at 6:28 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

100 - Don't count in the Arabs especially the Saudis to price oil in anything but dollars anytime soon. It's more than money here. Until you name me another super power but the US, think of the US Dollar as you best fiat currency.

both - I see exactly what you see when you look to UUP but remember a bottom must form at one point. If you looked to the S&P in March 9, you could easily see the same thing. No Bottom, right? As long as last year bottom in the dollar holding, I still believe the dollar have a chance (a strong chance not only to find support but also to make a new high). Just my two cents (deflation adjusted). :)

TMF Sinch -  Exactly, it was meant to be on the eve of that junction. Great calls are made there. Don't you think? I am glad that you are satisfied with your fundamental research outcome and hard work that I always reference to people in my blogs EVERY time I provide my technical prospective. Congratulation!

Don't be hasty. They don't count until you book them. - Note to self!

GoodVibe

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#22) On October 07, 2009 at 6:44 AM, XMFSinchiruna (27.71) wrote:

Tastylunch

Please see the original post for context.

My above comment is sincere, and designed to help fellow CAPS members to place technical analysis of the precious metals market into the proper perspective.

If you had any idea how much it pains me to see Fools being unintentionally misinformed about gold... if you look back at any of my archival bouts with GMX ... same thing. I get passionate about making sure Fools are well informed on the topic.

I'll let my fellow Fools be the judge, but my comments above have their best interests at heart. Gold must not be traded upon the technicals alone. The technicals are one tool among many that can inform expectations, but trading something this volatile and this tied to completely unpredictable macroeconomic developments is risky to the extreme. I consider it pure folly, and unfortunately for GV his ill-timed call became the best possible illustration of the nature of the risk.

Just so Fools have a complete context, I'll paste portions of my comments to GV's February call when he got the direction right:

1. Technical analysis, while informative and indeed supportive of investing success, is just as incomplete without an equally well-crafted fundamental analysis as a fundamental analysis that completely ignores the technical. I believe that long-term success in investing requires a well-balanced marriage of technical and fundamental analysis. One advantage of such a two-tiered approach is that one can lean more heavily on one than the other when the times call for it. In this period of global financial upheaval, and especially in lieu of my caveat #2 below, I believe that currently fundamental analysis must take precedence over TA with respect to charting the longer-term trajectories. TA can play an important role in calling short-term peaks and valleys, but TA will not tell us when the gold/silver bull market is over... only the fate of the USD and the completed unwinding of the largest deleveraging event ever contemplated by humankind can determine the end of the bull market. To ignore that aspect of the fundamental picture for gold and silver is pure folly, IMHO.

2.  Gold, silver, and the USD are grossly manipulated markets, and as such can not be expected to behave predictably in accordance with TA.The black-box trading by hedge funds and bullion banks has been extensively documented by the folks at GATA.org, but for an example see my blog post here which shows a minute-by-minute chart of gold and oil side-by-side on July 15, 2008. GV might well get a kick out of the fact that I proclaimed: "The charts don't lie". The venerable gold bugs at GATA have been tracking the mix of long and short gold positions of the major bullion banks on the TOCOM for years, and the body of evidence in support of rampant manipulation is irrefutable. On the silver side, although Ted Butler is a controversial figure even among gold and silver bulls, his assessments of similar evidence concerning silver are spot-on. He establishes that just two or three banks at a time control the vast majority of the open interst in COMEX silver at any given time. The case for dollar manipulation is a complicated one, and one which I look forward to discussing further somewhere else. For now, let's just record that it is my concerted opinion that the USDX does not presently reflect even the true perception of the greenback's value among the major currency traders and central banks... there is a ruse being played out with the help of players like Japan and the ECB to keep the USD viable in the face of these enormous pressures... to forestall the inevitable continuation of the currency's technical decline by whatever means necessary. Incidentally, I view the bailouts and massive federal interventions in the very same light... emergency measures to forestall the inevitable.

3. Because of the unwinding of trillions of dollars in toxic derivative assets and failed USD-denominated investments over the past year, we had a massive liquidation event take hold during the second half of 2008 during which all bets are off. While TA can be right a very large percentage of the time under market conditions that fall within the long-term range characterized as "normal", I think even the most die-hard TA enthusiast would have to agree that events of this magnitude can supercede the predictive mature of TA. Last summer, for example, the best gold-market TA-focused trader in the business (Trader Dan at JSMineset) offered this chart and analysis when gold was technically oversold near $860 but forced liquidation carried it all the way down to $700. I offer this as a fine example of gold bucking TA when world-changing events unfold. The events of the past year MORE than qualify, and in my opinion compel you to integrate more fundamental analysis into your work.

4. With all due respect (which is a lot!), the snippets of fundamental discussion contained within your post are way off base. Just as I recognize your obvious expertise in TA, I hope you will recognize that the fundamental analysis of gold and silver and the events driving this multi-year bull market have become a significant area of expertise for me. 

Gold is NOT a commodity - it is money. During the period when the ponzi scheme that is the unbacked fiat USD was kept under wraps and the world thought all was well (i.e.1980-2007).That period is over, and the days of the USD serving the role as the world's reserve currency are over. To any extent that USD's demise was not already baked into the cake years ago, Bernanke/Paulson/Geithner/Bush/Obama certainly nailed the cover on the coffin with their $10.15 trillion response. The USD is heading substantially lower (which leads me to caveat #5 below). Once this deflationary phase runs its course, inflation will gain steam rapidly, leading to an incarnation of stagflation that we have no historical basis from which to predict. As bad as things are, most people still have no clue how severe this crisis is. There were more than $1 quadrillion in dervatives before the unwinding began, and there remain no functioning markets for the vast majority of these assets... so while some notional value is given to them on balance sheets, the nominal value of incalculable quantities of these instruments will be... zero. This is not some dreampt-up doom-and-gloom scenario, this is what is happening right now as we speak. Even more fearful than the scale of these unwinding debt instruments, however, is the collective response. The government is now committed, and will continue to print in whatever quantity is required to stem the deleveraging (not the same as deflation!!). We have pledged up to $10.15 trillion, but we haven't seen anything yet, IMO. That part, of course, is speculative, but that is my concerted opinion on the matter and is shared by some venerable figures who also saw this crisis coming a mile away.

In this environment, and especialy in the case of gold, TA can not be relied upon as a predictor. Anything can happen in the short-term. $800... $1,200... I don't care... I'm holding for beyond the other side of $2,000 and likely much higher still. I will elaborate further on this position in my next comment. There are all sorts of additional statements that need to be made regarding risk tolerance, time horizons, investing styles, stomach for volatility, etc, etc. etc. which I look forward to making if I can find the time. :)

To be continued. In the meantime, Fools... by all means, go long oil at these levels. It's a FANTASTIC bet!! If gold is too volatile for your comfort level, then stay away from it. But please, please please please please please please please please please please please please please please do not even for one nanosecond consider shorting gold with real money. That is the very worst trade I can ever imagine making... REGARDLESS of whether we go to $800 or $1,200 from here... because in truth.. nobody knows. What I do know is the long-term trajectory, and I have placed my reputation on the line many hundreds of times over several years now that $1,650 gold followed by $2,000 gold is 100% inevitable, and I can stack up the fundamental evidence for those targets until the cows come home.

For a hoot, go ahead and short GLD... you might rack up some nice CAPS points if GV's TA is permitted to hold sway in the short-term. But as I said above, please do not risk real capital shorting gold. Personally, I have shaved tiny bits of a few holdings at these levels to back up the truck if we do get a correction, but I would never risk missing the ultimate ride by moving out of my gold position entirely. The world is in financial chaos, and those are the periods when gold evidences its true shine and fiat currencies are revealed as ponzi schemes.

 

 

 

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#23) On October 07, 2009 at 8:48 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Sinch - You are missing the man's point, my friend! Sigh! By the way, emotion is the enemy while trading or investing. Passion is part of emotion.

......

For those who are celebrating the "hasty dramatic break through" for gold, know that I successfully traded three tops in 2009 riding them down. All are documented here and that one might not end up be any different. It all depends on your time-frame. Since my February call, gold is only meagerly 3% up than that first call and still only up 3% from this blog's call. (ALL in ONE day, that is yesterday). I don't know who is right here or wrong but that's fine.

If you think 3% is something you should celebrate for, good for you. For the benefits of others, don't sell your milk before you milk it. You could put your money in SPY and do nothing in 2009 and you can get the same return. Congratulation on that!

One more thought to share. Did you notice that silver didn't make new high than September or at that matter than last year high? Just food for the thought if you would like to listen.

Not defending my call here or trying to prove anything (not my goal in CAPS or my style). Only time will tell. Just sharing while I am DOWN huge folly 3% (long and short term). :)

GoodVibe

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#24) On October 07, 2009 at 9:12 AM, binve (< 20) wrote:

GV,

Hey man :). I know where you are coming from, but the reason I haven't said anything is because I disagree with how you went about it (not the upside down charts, because that was clever) :). It was the calling out of Sinch's call specifically, which almost made it a personal rebuttal instead of showing the other side of the trade. I *know* this was not your intention, but I am saying how it could easily have been interpreted that way.

Here is something I wrote on Sinch's recent post:

A few thoughts on this post by GoodVibe

1. GV is only making a call based on the TA as he sees it. He is trying to be fair and impartial. I know him and he really does share his thoughts and analysis freely. The spirit of the post is in this vein.

2. GV is a trader. And there are many things that I am also a trader in (Gold is NOT one of them). So I can understand where he sees the pattern as bearish for the short/medium term he will trade that patter. Obviously, I see the pattern and count differently, but from a trading perspective, he is making a trading call. And I can understand his perspective here.

3. However, I have serious issues with him personally calling you out in his post. I think that was uncharacteristic of him and I highly disagree with it.

So while there are many things that I do trade. Gold is not one of them. Gold is by far my biggest holding in my overall portfolio, and much larger than anything I use for trading. I am a gold investor, not a gold trader. I know you know this Sinch, but this is for the benefit of everybody else.

This is why I say that I literally *do not care* what the short term price of gold is, nor do I care about the short term changes. Gold is about value, gold is not about price. It is real money and a safe haven against bad economic decisions and shenanigans. This is why I will never write a blog post taking about gold as a trade, only as an investment.

So to reiterate. You are making a trading call. Sinch is arguing the fundamental investment merits. In some ways it is comparing apples and oranges.

However, just to be fair and impartial, I wrote a post for the bullish technical case for gold: Some Gold Charts and Thoughts

This is not a direct response to you. I have seen a lot of bearish counts and charts for gold recently, many citing the triple top. But I am bullish both fundamentally and technically and am just offering a view from the bullish side of the trade.

Take care my brothers, both GoodVibe and TMFSinchiruna, and good luck in all your trades and investments!!

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#25) On October 07, 2009 at 9:18 AM, Rebkong1 (< 20) wrote:

GV

 

what fundamentally is out there that leads you to "believe" that the dollar is going to find its bottom?  here we are now talking about a second stimulus package..and continuing to monetize every debt issue the treasury has?? even if we cut all current practices off right now that are debasing this dollar we will still plummet through 22.40 ..what do you think is going to happen when 22 is taken out on the dollar???  

 

besides a chart bouncing off levels (numbers) on a chart? what can you fundamentally point to that would lead you to make this call? 

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#26) On October 07, 2009 at 9:32 AM, XMFSinchiruna (27.71) wrote:

GoodVibe4Ever

 ... never mind. Peace.

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#27) On October 07, 2009 at 9:34 AM, StopLaughing (< 20) wrote:

Goodvibe

Being long both gold and silver miners, I have a question. Does not yesterdays price action break out of the triple top? 

In other words is this a breakout to the upside?  The fundamentals suggest that, but what about the charting theory?

I suspect that gold will eventually come back down to the 1000 range resistance on it's way up to about $1200 but I am more interested in the idea of if, this price action confirms a break out to the upside. 

Thanks

 

 

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#28) On October 07, 2009 at 9:54 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

binve - I never call anyone out personally, my brother. You don't know me well if you think I did. I called his TA analysis and his choosing of what goes well with his FA analysis. Unless I misunderstood CAPS, I think me bringing this to him and others is why we are here. I don't claim to know it all and ask who wants to offer a different view to feel free to come and share.

When I read his blog back then, I just sighed to myself and said nothing for his picking and choosing. On the weekend and because I knew that we are in an immanent junction, I made the call, which is my right I believe. I made it intentionally and exactly when few will dare to call things. The timing was favorable to both of your sides than mine if you didn't notice. I wanted to bring my call in a "clever" way as you put it and his blog came across my mind so I thought to bring it up not to call him out.

When I posted my last silver blog, I posted a link to both of your analysis that goes against mine. Always remember that I see both sides and tell people about it. This blog was meant to highlight that as a side note and not to call anyone out personally. 

You made your point and I made mine. So please, don't respond further about this topic. I and many others don't like making my blog "he said, she said" conversation and I take nothing personally unlike some people here in CAPS who carry their hearts on their shoulders. Thanks for your kind words and taking the time to explain to Sinch my point of view!

GoodVibe

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#29) On October 07, 2009 at 10:15 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Reb - It is always a smart thing to talk of what you know better than most and refer to others the rest. I always refer to sinch's blogs when I present my TA case. Go back and check this. He will provide you with a very good case from FA. I thought my correct short term calls with his long term calls can add more complete prospective for the readers who approach things also from different prospective. Don't you think this is how we can enrich the conversation? 

By the way I never once disagreed with his long term call about gold. I told him that I would love to buy gold and silver at LOWER prices. If it doesn't come, let it be. I will not chase. It's not the only thing in the world that I can put my money in.

Stop - we need a follow up and not a one day phenomenon. I will assess the situation in the levels of 1080-1120 and will be happy to tell you that my call still stand or I stepped to the side. I hope this helped.

GoodVibe

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#30) On October 07, 2009 at 2:25 PM, Tastylunch (29.24) wrote:

TMFSinchiruna

well I didn't mean to make you write a tome, most of what you wrote I already knew as I've read all your posts  and have been in Gold to some degree since 2003. So I do apologize for not making what I was saying clear.

I'm well aware of the original post. But just because someone hits you or takes a cheap shot at you doesn't mean you should hit back. You've got very little to gain by doing so. It doesn't matter who is in the wrong.

You've got the "TMF" in your name (and deservedly so for your exhaustive work in commodities). Rightly or wrongly the burden of acting above the fray is on you.

 I'll let my fellow Fools be the judge, but my comments above have their best interests at heart

It is precisely because of this that I point this out.  Not because I have any vested interest in shorting Gold.

Your passion, while perfectly understandable (it's a problem I wrestle with myself as I'm sure we all do) can be very detrimental in getting people to listen to you.  Presumably you'd like to reach the people who are on the fence I'm assuming not the choir.

Let your evidence do your talking for you my friend. It will convince more people than your passion ever could.

That's all. I'll stop bothering you all now and go back to lurking.

And thanks for all your great posts/work Sinchiruna. In particular I enjoy your writeups on Joy Global. I may not comment on them often but I read them all.

 

 

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#31) On October 08, 2009 at 12:12 AM, herztical (27.93) wrote:

Good article GV...useless shiny piece of metal that isn't even used for teeth anymore.  The "buy gold" superbowl commercials should have been the tell.  Remember all the .com superbowl adds in the 2000s?  I like comods bc they are usefull; gold is not.

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#32) On October 08, 2009 at 9:06 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Update: I am mostly in cash. Click here for update. By the way if you missed it, I never had a short position in gold but I had one in silver. Click here for that post. I will update you more later on what I think for the precious.

I hope this will find you and yours well.

GoodVibe

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#33) On October 08, 2009 at 11:40 AM, bothisellhigher (28.92) wrote:

Looking forward to your "revised" opinions on precious metals. I'm also glad to hear your silver short is referred to above as...in the past. 

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#34) On October 09, 2009 at 2:17 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

both - I am sorry to disappoint you but nothing change yet. Comment 32 was just an update for my trading record and has nothing to do with the gold or silver call. I am still in the camp of the few that both are going down for the next 6 months. I will be happy to say otherwise if I have more evidence of the dollar demise but so far this upside is just a technical one that has nothing to do with fundamentals and time will hopefully tell the true story. Today, we hit $1062.80 (all of the break out distance is in 72 hours), let's see from where gold is gonna go. Don't be surprised if all of those $62.80 gain got whipped out in less than 72 hours as well.

Again, I still believe that the precious metal is not the worst idea to invest your money in (if you are there for the long haul) but it's not the best by any stretch of imagination.

GoodVibe

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#35) On October 09, 2009 at 6:43 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

From my market summary found on my site:

Will the US dollar rally? Yes! We can! Yes, We will! :) Click for chart
08.13.09, I said SLV can hit $16.30 - $17.64 - Guess how much it was yesterday or better click here!

So after all I was the one who called for this silver BULLISH move TWO months ahead of time and with only 2 cents target difference just analyzing charts, which some of you call reading tea leaves. No FA whatsoever! ;) Not bragging but quietly setting the record straight in hope that might open your way to at least acknowledge the value of adding TA to your tools. 

For the full summary, check my website. www.IamGV.com

GoodVibe

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#36) On October 09, 2009 at 9:32 PM, bothisellhigher (28.92) wrote:

O...so, I remember when GMX recommended ending a position in gold with the advice that...yeah, gold is cool but you can probably get it at a much better price (those are my words for his words)...I didn't want to but I sold at a very nice profit and indeed picked it up again at a solidly lower price...bless the child! 

I didn't want to sell again...but I do listen...and I think I can get it (AUY) at a much lower price as well (hope I don't have to wait 6 months)...so yeah, I sold today at a really cool profit.  (I let it all ride on each trade which I know is not at all recommended...but hell, that's me...and it is working.)

So thank you for your blogs and comments to comments.  I bought VIP with the dough, you know, so as to not have it sitting around gathering cobwebs.  If you have a moment, and I know how busy you are with your own investing, your blogs and your really good website, maybe you could comment on the Russian cell phone business.

Bless you also my child.

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