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GoodVibe4Ever (< 20)

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GoodVibe new Cap is ready with its 200 unbelievable Picks

Recs

38

April 01, 2009 – Comments (226) | RELATED TICKERS: MO , NE , Y

Here are the most incredible picks of all time that had ever been picked or will be picked on Caps. You will find here set of picks, which I was able to pull this hard task off under only 5 minutes by searching the Internet for them. It's a testimony to the powerful imagination of our minds to create, invent, and also, well, prank. I hope by now, you already clicked on the blog name. :)

                                  ................................................

                                  Punked! Step in and say you ate it!                                  

                                 ....................................................

It’s always nice to impersonate the person I will never want to be on a day like today. It was nice to do it for the lulz, mates. I bet some people loved me for it and now hate me twice. :) I think I love to be abused. Thanks for the cheer. Fool on!

      
      
      
             

Although we didn't play (for now), I still won the popular vote with good margin. Have fun everybody. Little levity will take you a long way. And please don't take the game too seriously.

GoodVibe

You Punked, LadyLuck! :)

   

226 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On April 01, 2009 at 7:09 PM, ayekappy (< 20) wrote:

Thought so.  But I'd still like to see crazy gambling GV one day. (like under 1% of total capital though)

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#2) On April 01, 2009 at 7:18 PM, Mary953 (80.38) wrote:

LOL!  I finally did find a computer.  I have about 5 minutes left.  I read through your challenge and left you a message there, then went to the lounge, then here.  Beautiful, just beautiful.  This is one for the books!

Mary

Check your challenge to pick up my reaction to your 'bet'

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#3) On April 01, 2009 at 7:29 PM, PrestonCheek (31.93) wrote:

LMAO GV.

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#4) On April 01, 2009 at 7:37 PM, isusan (< 20) wrote:

I'm going to kill you!  At one point I checked in this afternoon, read some of your postings, and was going to email you asking what flipping meds you were taking today!  I was sure it was a joke at first, then thought you went out of your mind. 

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#5) On April 01, 2009 at 8:00 PM, Mary953 (80.38) wrote:

Diagnostics are clean, computer is safe, and I am headed down to  fix supper, but I have two things for you GV,

First, how did you like your comment on the challenge?  You will always be a champion and you know it!

And, second, just in case you wondered, having been the victim of attack, I was surprised, but yes, you totally fooled me.  I just decided that you had had one too many "drive-by spammers" and one too many stresses and were ready to call these people out to put up or shut up.  It was totally logical that you would just go straight for who ever was at the top as the best way to prove your point.  If I was GMX though, I would have been looking at a possible scholarship though.  (and of course I voted that you would win all!)

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#6) On April 01, 2009 at 8:04 PM, XMFSinchiruna (27.70) wrote:

You owe me an hour of my life, which obviously you can never repay... you lost all my respect. Hope your gag was worth it. For the record, I love a good April Fool's joke as much as the next guy, but there are limits, and you crossed all of them. I am NOT amused! Respect is hard-earned, but oh so easily lost.

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#7) On April 01, 2009 at 8:18 PM, BlueInsight (< 20) wrote:

I just kept remembering your mantra, "Humble yourself or the market will do it for you."  I knew you would never risk the kind of "Bad Vibes" that would come from such an ego driven challenge.  It sounds like you caught a lot of people off guard.  To those who got upset with you for this prank I would just add this thought... We tend to have the strongest negative emotional responses to those characteristics of others that we see in ourselves and try to supress. 

If you were angered with GV's joke, could it be that your own internal competitive drive was excited by his false proposal? 

Remember that to most of us GV is just an online personality.  We color that personality and fill in the blanks from our own internal projections of who we think he is or is not.  But all of that (the good and the bad) are reflections of parts of ourselves.  How could it be any more than that?

BlueInsight

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#8) On April 01, 2009 at 8:38 PM, anchak (99.84) wrote:

Most people got it!

Its such an  antithetis to your general style!

Happy Fools day! 

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#9) On April 01, 2009 at 8:45 PM, RVAspeculator (28.93) wrote:

Goodvibe....

I thought there was a good chance this was a joke but then I figured no one would joke about putting money and reputations on the line like this.

What would you do had they accepted???  Would you say "I was just kidding about the 25k bet folks"….    It is April Fools Day!

It’s not a funny joke to make a financial wager on April Fools Day.  Try that in Vegas and see how funny they think it is.

I believe this whole “bottom pick 200 high beta stocks at the bottom, score 3000 points/100% accuracy in a month and start up a blog” thing was just a scam to drum up ATTENTION to yourself….just like this latest scam was.

Your calls have not even been that great… Short GDX at $32 and gold in the 800’s…  Short the market at 740, 750, 760, 770, 780, 790, 800 and cover at 805 (It’s the “IDES OF MARCH”  LOL).  

You got the bounce in December 2008 when you redid your account and the big decline in January 2009 right.  Two in a row, wow…  I have tripled my trading account this year and am 99% more humble than you are.  

Get over yourself already.  I am done reading and posting here.

PS:  It is PAINFULLY obvious to someone reading even 2 seconds that Mary953 is another one of your accounts.   Everyone sees through it…  Stop with the sock puppets.

 

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#10) On April 01, 2009 at 8:54 PM, AntiRonChapmanJr (99.78) wrote:

I figured, but I am still disappointed.  I was ready to show that TA does not work. 

Perhaps another time...

ron

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#11) On April 01, 2009 at 9:08 PM, kingofshorts (< 20) wrote:

i didn'y know so many in caps could walk on water!!!

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#12) On April 01, 2009 at 9:40 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

GV~

All I got to say is this....

If it's fame you seek, I think you found it...... :)

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#13) On April 01, 2009 at 10:20 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

GV,

I've been a fan of yours with the exception of my concern that too many people were taking each of your moves too seriously and with too much capital, trying to make back what the market has taken from them, but it's not magic. The TA can be applied as A TOOL, not the only tool. It works best over time. That a turn (wave change) will occur can be estimated, but the exact point cannot.  At times you cannot be sure which wave you are in and can get burnt. Over the long run it is benefitical, but some of your followers are trying to do too much. You do warn them, but they get caught up in the moment when they should be looking at the days, weeks and months. Whereas you discount news, you cite news in some of your posts. When the market is near a turn, news can break it.  Your separate Post on Elliott was VERY well done and very useful to everyone learning what it is and the theory, but it is only theory.  You can one, two, A,B,C all you want, but you have to start over when the turns occur, and recount the waves.  It is powerful, but not all-powerful.

I know you are not of U.S. decent, (whatever that is in this melting pot), and you work hard on your English, I'd like to take your April Fools with a grain of salt and toss it off to your culture, but you stepped one too far with your comment:

--------------------------------------------------------------

For any one who doubt this challenge...

Two things I pride myself about; my name and my word. You can count on them.

Yes, Dare! All the many zombies, aliases, and the like of abitare are not allowed. :)

GoodVibe

 -----------------------------------------------------------------

When a joke starts it is generally fair game, but the longer it goes, after people identify it as a joke, the less funny it becomes and you start losing the fun you started.  When you get called out on your joke and you start defending it such as you did, it is very poor taste and says much about the jokester. Friendly piece of advice, never live on your word and then use it so irresponsibly. 

I'd suggest that you apologize to your community for carrying the jokea bit too far with the comment I cited above.  I'm not sure I found a post with your nationality, if you could share it maybe I could better relate.

Your weaving some fun, "good vibes", respect, and attempt to help people in your blogs is outstanding. Don't spoil it.

Thanks, good luck.

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#14) On April 01, 2009 at 10:53 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

Ok, enough is enough... I've been working way to much.. Time to go kill people in WOW!!!!

~For the Horde!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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#15) On April 01, 2009 at 11:07 PM, herztical (27.95) wrote:

What a surprise!  Who ever thought this was real is the real fool!  Free money?  Come on...I have a bridge for sale too. The last place I would expect free money from is on a web site dedicated/consisting of people trying to "beat the market".

...and people talking about lawyers for 5k? I'm proud to say I don't have an attorney and hate to use them except when forced...leeches on every deal.

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#16) On April 01, 2009 at 11:12 PM, kstarich (30.64) wrote:

Pretty hilarious!

 

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#17) On April 01, 2009 at 11:58 PM, TMFJake (71.01) wrote:

Actually, Goodvibe used the money to get me out of my little problem with the SEC.  Thanks man!

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#18) On April 02, 2009 at 12:21 AM, gman444 (28.76) wrote:

Yawn.  Another of the many manifestations of the largest ego on CAPS, the GV persona.  There is no close second.

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#19) On April 02, 2009 at 2:15 AM, rancidx3 (42.65) wrote:

If you couldn't figure out this was a joke(from the VERY BEGINNING) you should NOT invest in stuff yourself. You might as well let someone else handle your money because your ability to distinguish things is horrible. I wouldn't say this was a complete waste of time though. It shows how naive people are here.  I bet those people blindly take take real life money to purchase things because a top fool just picked it on caps without doing any research at all.

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#20) On April 02, 2009 at 3:17 AM, DaretothREdux (39.76) wrote:

Alright, I was gonna do an April Fool's post myself, but I doubt anyone would have believed it.

I was going to claim that I was resigning from blogging after one last blog and that I now realized that everything I believed was incorrect and that we should all love Big Brother.

Heh. But I couldn't make myself sound serious enough...

Since I try to be the King of Fools on this site anyways, I thought after awhile that being Fool's Day I should be the opposite of a Fool, and just be normal.

I for one would like to congratulate GV on this practical joke. And it goes without saying that those on the recieving end of a practical joke usually don't laugh...

Seriously, though people how are you not falling out of your chairs?

ROFLMFAO

TSIF and TMFSinchiruna: lighten up dudes! I'm sorry you got shaving cream all over your room, but the majority of us think it's hilarious.

Peace,

Dare

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#21) On April 02, 2009 at 8:03 AM, mark91055 (< 20) wrote:

Good morning,

What have you been doing in a sideways market.  If you were looking for a direction probably nothing.  I am not as smart as GV, because I don't know the direction ;-)  but I love this type of a channel movement because I know it will bust out of there.  Therefore on pullbacks I have shorted TWM and on the up days I have been accumalating out of the money puts.

I have three different put positions and two long positions(short TWM).  When the channel breaks (today I think), I start selling off the money makers and wait for a pullback and sell the rest.  Just ideas for you guys.

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#22) On April 02, 2009 at 8:50 AM, crystlz (60.25) wrote:

Good morning,

Today should be telling. A new high above 832,xx, will give pause to most of the current counts. It seems that the rules must be adhered to and that all will be clear after the waves have time to develope.

peace 

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#23) On April 02, 2009 at 8:53 AM, phalkor (75.68) wrote:

Good show GV!  Nice to know that there are fools who do it for the lulz!  Dare I say it?  What the hell,

 

EPIC LULZ!!!!!111!!!111

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#24) On April 02, 2009 at 8:55 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Good Morning brothers and sisters -

I hope you enjoyed your first day in April and ready for better day ahead. I will be busy all day so I'll not post as much. So keep the 2 short term charts on your radar and read my market Vibes blog and the hedging blog to know what I am doing but only do what YOU know works for you. 

GoodVibe

Best comments from above are #7 blueinsight (we should meet one day) and #20 Dare (the one who can make a prank and take a prank and know it's just a prank - the light soul).

Lighten up everybody! There's nothing sinister I know of than a heavy soul. I had one not long ago and I am glad it's melting away. Look in the mirror and I hope some of you will see it. It's an awful unnecessary burden that cost me a lot and I hope you will have no part in it or cost because of it. 

PS. Jake - I am happy I helped a little bit brother, not only to get you out but to spice it up a little as well. Your new passport and plan tickets are ready. You have to be out of the country by 6PM. 

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#25) On April 02, 2009 at 9:11 AM, AnomaLee (28.53) wrote:

I figured as much. It could've been more e-lighthearted

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#26) On April 02, 2009 at 9:26 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Alert - The futrues closed strong and chances are great now that wave 2 ended Monday. Watch for a new high as confirmation that wave 3 is underway. What you should do with this? As I always say, it's your choice and your plan.

I will reduce my leftover short positions in a possible pull back after the open (if there will be one) and add selective long side to my current one that I see to have a chance not to retreat as much if we decided to pull back (which has a weak support now after this push in the morning).

I hope this added some value to your thinking.

GoodVibe

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#27) On April 02, 2009 at 9:43 AM, Mary953 (80.38) wrote:

I feel absolutely giddy.  I am not me.  When I first got here, I was FloridaBuilder (This has to be true because Alstry Must know Everything -  Right?)  Then he decided I was me, but just a horrible person.

Now I'm GoodVibe! 

Gentlemen, now that I have been here long enough to have an idea of who FB and GV are and to have read your blogs, I am honored by the comparisons.  I only wish I had the investing acumen of either of you.

GV, I have opened a new lounge at http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=174482&t=01007737217973478225

Perhaps the fact that I was not on the computer yesterday meant that I didn't have a day to get all bothered about this, but I found all of the fools day blogs to be hilarious.  The only problem I had was with the people who jumped in and 'outed' the pranks quickly.  Lighten up, people.  Jake's blog was my other favorite!

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#28) On April 02, 2009 at 9:48 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Chart update

Live Chart. If any one have time please capture and post.

Current 831.93

GoodVibe

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#29) On April 02, 2009 at 9:53 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Today's current high @ 831.93 or little bit more could be either X for those who knows about flat waves or 3 of 3 of A

BRB

GoodVibe

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#30) On April 02, 2009 at 9:58 AM, innerflame (< 20) wrote:

OK- that was a great April Fool's Joke- if you knew the characters I've known in my life- nothing surprises me much anymore!

So is there a general concensus here that this is a big wave up? IT sure seems like everyone is jumping on the bandwagon- so when does that become the warning bell?

And good morning on this new blog! Hi Mary! 

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#31) On April 02, 2009 at 10:22 AM, columbia1 wrote:

GV- what is the code to open " ENLARGE" in a new window?

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#32) On April 02, 2009 at 10:38 AM, isusan (< 20) wrote:

Good Morning, everyone!  Columbia, whenever you have a minute, could you please tell us how to capture & post a chart?

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#33) On April 02, 2009 at 10:47 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Cubs wrote on market vibes:

GV-  Current 834   Wave 2 often retraces most of Wave 1.  You are calling this a break of 834 or are we going to retrace?  I'm set up for a retrace to 750.  Sounds like you are prognosticating that it isn't going to happen.  

It says OFTEN but not always. You have to put this into consideration and see both sides and make your plan based on it. And I really don't like this word "prognosticating". I am following set of rules that is publicly published in a book called EWP and if I say or do anything different than this book, then I am prognosticating. Instead I am just applying what worked for me and many other people.

Pay attention everybody - You and I must trade the charts and not our believes. I will urge everyone to learn how to have a PLAN that factor your TIME FRAME and respect the rules of EW (if you wish to use it) and never wish or hope. Doesn't work.

Again, if I take a swing stab here and there, you shouldn't do as I do. You could buy and hold let's see from here (which I will not) and hold until the end of C of {2}. Right?

Yes, we will be going up and down but who care if you will end up making money. Not as much as mine but who care. I make more because I take more risk. Again, you have first to believe that we bottomed in 666 and we're going up from here. Some people really don't believe that. So it's all about YOU. Not me, not EW, not Fib. numbers, not tea leaves, or what have you. 

Self directed trading / investing is not as easy as some think, right? Read the guidelines if you didn't.

Current 836.17 and pushing higher..

I hope this find you well. Any thoughts?

GoodVibe

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#34) On April 02, 2009 at 10:48 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Susan - The updated charts are on market vibes.

GoodVibes

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#35) On April 02, 2009 at 10:58 AM, isusan (< 20) wrote:

Thanks, GoodVibe!  I did see it, I was lost trying to help on #28.

Self directed trading / investing is not as easy as some think, right?  That's so true.  I can't believe how much I need to learn, and the time involved.  It's also hard juggling with work.  :)

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#36) On April 02, 2009 at 11:10 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Mary - this is your chart. Keep at it.

Current 837.45

GoodVibe

 

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#37) On April 02, 2009 at 11:11 AM, DanDarby (< 20) wrote:

GV,

I understand the x wave thought, but if that is the case we would have had correction wave b surpass {v} (which is ok), and then wave x surpassing {v} pretty strongly.

It's like this correction wave is in the headed in the wrong direction. Is it valid for both correction waves b and x to top wave {v}?

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#38) On April 02, 2009 at 11:25 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

I am flat long and Naked short. Not an advice. Just comunicating what I am doing.

Current 842

GoodVibe

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#39) On April 02, 2009 at 11:26 AM, mark91055 (< 20) wrote:

Capturing top side of my plays accumulated in channel.  Covered short TWM play(longsided play).  Puts are now free.  I love my job.  I posted specifics in lounge before market opened today.  GV your public wants more trading plays IMHO.  Feel free to critique my plays or my comments.  I think it would all be a learning experience. 

Donde esta lounge?

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#40) On April 02, 2009 at 11:31 AM, PrestonCheek (31.93) wrote:

What is flat long?????

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#41) On April 02, 2009 at 11:35 AM, arboretum (28.35) wrote:

I am flat. Considering short. With GV here, can't see that much more upside.

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#42) On April 02, 2009 at 11:40 AM, ayekappy (< 20) wrote:

arb: But what if banks start busting out with crazy profit numbers very soon, well then maybe more people would be skeptical.

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#43) On April 02, 2009 at 11:41 AM, columbia1 wrote:

isusan- This is my method, First open a tab with the chart you wish to capture, lets call this one T1, right click on the chart and choose "save picture as" a screen will pop up and ask you where to save it and what to name it. I choose "My Pictures" and put a quick name to it. Now the chart should be in "My pictures". Open a second tab, T2, and open flickr in it, choose "upload photos and videos" and another screen pops-up for you to choose your picture, find it in "My pictures" and hit open, this will start the upload process, after you have your photo in flickr click on it and choose "Medium size", below the picture you have two options, choose the first and "copy" the HTML, then to tab 3, T3, this is your CAPS tab, paste the code you captured from T2 into the comment box of T3, go back to T2 and choose the "large" size and copy the second option, the "URL", back to T3, type "ENLARGE" under the chart and high light it, then click on the link button on top of the comment box, paste the link into the pop-up box and hit insert. Now you have a link set-up. To link to a live chart, type "LIVE", go back to T1 and copy the URL address on the top of the browser and paste it into the pop-up as in the "ENLARGE" process. I think that is all there is to it, if that does not work let me know what happened, I will be here on and off all day. We will get you posting your on charts ASAP.

If anybody has a quicker Method Please share!!

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#44) On April 02, 2009 at 11:42 AM, PrestonCheek (31.93) wrote:

I sold my FAS for a nice profit, wished I would have held on to my TNA from yesterday but that would be greedy. I picked up some SRS and will put in tight stops, SRS at 48 is a good price. I have no protection for it though.

What is flat long somebody?

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#45) On April 02, 2009 at 11:45 AM, arboretum (28.35) wrote:

ayekappy - I'm not exactly "flat" but short real estate and long banks, but it amounts to the same thing. If the banks break out my shorts will stop out.

I think there could be an upside breakout but before that might be a correction coming if the G20 agree to any kind of global financial regulation.

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#46) On April 02, 2009 at 11:48 AM, anibas (66.91) wrote:

Preston

Flat long means that GV is no longer holding any long positions. He believes that the market is going down. 

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#47) On April 02, 2009 at 11:53 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

 #9) On April 01, 2009 at 8:45 PM, RVAspeculator (98.99) wrote:

Your calls have not even been that great… Short GDX at $32 and gold in the 800’s…  Short the market at 740, 750, 760, 770, 780, 790, 800 and cover at 805 (It’s the “IDES OF MARCH”  LOL). 

...........

This is the most disgenuine statment I ever read from someone who is following this blog. Because you didn't like the April fool, or made mistakes trading, you should not state such a thing.

Everyone here BUT YOU now that I never shorted @ 740 750 or 760 as well NEVER covered @ 805. You read my hedge blog where put exact numbers on my trading positions and my hedging style from the bottom @ 666 until TODAY but you still come and say such a thing. What that tells about your FALSE statment?

Again, for the gold and GMX false statment that I shorted @ $800! So let's see where I called the top in G.S.M. and bottoms in oil? And I still stands there's more downside to G.S.M and upside for oil.

I know my words and calls are more documented than just such recless and frustrated statment from you but it cause ill to others to read such a misleading statment from someone who claim to follow the whole blog - without getting the whole picture so I figured to put the facts instead. RVA, look deep to your actions and please don't blame it on others. I know that feeling very well. It's all about the complexity of our psychology and its relation to money and power. Best wishes for you whatever you decided to do.

GoodVibe

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#48) On April 02, 2009 at 12:02 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

GMX in #47 meant to read GDX.

To clarify the comments above. I am not thinking the market is going up or down here. I am following the plan that I outlined all along here. I am in a hit and run mode if all the chatting let you forgot it, please go and read the hedge post. Nothing more and nothing less. 

Current 840

GoodVibe

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#49) On April 02, 2009 at 12:03 PM, anchak (99.84) wrote:

I think this is GV's last "Hit-and-Run" strategy in play......

Exited all longs and now picked up his last short.....and will liquidate positions if we go down.

I sold some of my longs at 841.....This is a resistance zone ( the OLD one - remember on a full 61.8% retrace from 666).

I am still tending towards 1 of 3 ....however a sharp correction from here still possible.  I do not know why(actually I do - by back-of-envelope math) - I am tending towards a 847 range , if I have to implement a "hit-and-run"

Not sure yet!

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#50) On April 02, 2009 at 12:07 PM, PrestonCheek (31.93) wrote:

He is excactly right RVA, I really think people need to quit trying to find GV in something wrong, not only is it bad taste it's also a lot of jealousy. GV was trying to help us with a hedging strategy and thats all that was.

I'm really starting to get aggravated with this shit, if you can't follow everything then don't follow at all, read everything before you make profound statements.

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#51) On April 02, 2009 at 12:08 PM, cubswin08 (30.83) wrote:

GV-  I greatly appreciate your efforts to provide learning. This type of discussion is great. I have been studying your work for the last month.   Thanks!    When time can you explain why this is wave 3 and not a continuation of 1 (blowoff top). I had read that 2 often retraces much of 1.  We are in severe overbought conditions.   I would argue now that 840 is the top and that we are now awaiting a downturn to 750ish.   TIA   Cubs

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#52) On April 02, 2009 at 12:11 PM, binve (< 20) wrote:

All,

Instead of hogging GoodVibe's blog with a bunch of opinion and charts, I put together a new post: Why I think the rally over the last 3 days stinks

Feel free to check it out. Report this comment
#53) On April 02, 2009 at 12:14 PM, ekramer17 (< 20) wrote:

Just for kicks if you have it...check out page 83 in the Prechter book, which should be labeled Figure 2-16, DJIA Hourly 1978.

Does anyone else think that the pattern (see chart in post #67) since {1} has been unfolding eerily similarly to the waves 3 and 4 on the chart of page 83?

To my naked eye, the similarities appear striking, in which case this would seem to be a complex flat.

Thoughts?

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#54) On April 02, 2009 at 12:22 PM, ekramer17 (< 20) wrote:

Sorry!  Meant chart #67 in this thread

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#55) On April 02, 2009 at 12:24 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

cabo - Very beautiful observation! Thank you! It's page 85 in my book but still figure 2-16 and the comparison chart is on marketvibe blog not here comment #67

Current 843 and I am sweating! :)

GoodVibe

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#56) On April 02, 2009 at 12:46 PM, mark91055 (< 20) wrote:

Blowing out the last of my April calls for a four bagger.  On the long side I am down to a small short position in TWM .  I have added puts at market open and an hour ago.  My downside is full of free puts. I love options because there is less risk!

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#57) On April 02, 2009 at 12:50 PM, columbia1 wrote:

I just checked the VIX and it was 41.47, and still in the triangle, I think this is a head fake, the VIX should be lower if this was a REAL rally.

GV- what are the volume numbers telling you??

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#58) On April 02, 2009 at 12:55 PM, jimmybroderick (< 20) wrote:

Cabot,

Posted this to you over in the Vibes Longue.  Sorry if it should have been here.

What does a complex flat typically mean in a market like this?  Break up (since we are in an up trend?).  Break down to retrace before the continued rise?  Curious what it means.  The EW practitioner thought we'd go flat and consolidate a little before retesting the 832 and 7950.  Both have been cracked today.  It could be flat in nature, but we are creating new highs.  What does it all mean in TA?

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#59) On April 02, 2009 at 12:59 PM, ThoughtfulFool (< 20) wrote:

The best laugh we can often have is when we laugh at ourselves.  It's a test of our humility at times.  Those who are offended need to lighten up.  That said, I think GV could have let us off the hook a bit earlier; it's one thing to have pie in the face, quite another to drown in it. 

Thanks for the laugh, GV!

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#60) On April 02, 2009 at 1:02 PM, Sobornost (< 20) wrote:

Speaking about Wave personality, from Chap 2 of Prechter "B waves are phonies.  They are sucker plays, bull traps, speculators' paradise, orgies of odd-lotter mentality or expressions of dumb institutional complacency (or both).  They often involve a focus on narrow list of stocks, are often "unconfirmed"...by other averages, rarely are technically strong, and are virtually always doomed to complete retracement by wave C"

Definitely makes me think twice about what I'm seeing here:
live Nasdaq chart

 

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#61) On April 02, 2009 at 1:07 PM, Mary953 (80.38) wrote:

Based on the incredible pessimism I am seeing here (everyone seems to be expecting the market to break and drop like a stone!), I am putting some fairly tight stops on most of my longs, but I have to tell you that I am extremely happy with the gains I have banked in the last few days.  This may be a "speculator's paradise" but it made up quite a bit of ground and put me back where I needed to be.

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#62) On April 02, 2009 at 1:08 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

sobor - another great look. You should post this on Market Vibe as well.

I love you all today for doing all these charts that added to our prospective and show our readers that this rally is way overdone and phony as I believe it to be.

That said, it's YOU the reader of all this who have to make up your mind where is the market going and where you should put your hard earned coins.

Thank you all!

Current 840

GoodVibe

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#63) On April 02, 2009 at 1:21 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

Cobo~ Are we talking about the same thing? I don't have my book with me at work so I can't refferance it. Check my chart on the GV chart blog and let me know. I really like the look of it and it takes all the confustion out of the count of the other 5 counts. I'm curious to see when this is all over and wave 3 is truly confirmed with little doubt.

GV~ I responded to your email. I agree we got alot of people stepping up here on the understanding of the counts this week. It's like all the EWT books arived at the same time. It's fantastic!

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#64) On April 02, 2009 at 1:24 PM, binve (< 20) wrote:

Sobornost , Awesome! Yeah, I remember reading that a few days ago, but I forgot about it. If this is indeed B in the A-B-C of Wave 2 (which I think it is), then this desribes exactly what I feel like when I look at the price action. Nice, thanks :)

GoodVibe4Ever, Just responding to your question here too :)

No, you are definitely not missing anything :)

Basically if you read my response to anchak in my post, his statements yesterday on your The Anatomy of a Rally post made me really think critically and re-evaluate my postion. I am sitting on losses in my shorts too, and I could feel myself getting emotional.

So I took a break. Then came back with a fresh perspective, looked at all of the charts, thought about the progress of the rally so far, looked at the EW counts, and decided that the highest probability count was that we are still in Wave 2.

This is not anything different, but basically this post just documented my thought-processes and my position. And for other nervous shorts, I wanted to give them the full technical picture for why I am still in mine.

Thanks man!

 

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#65) On April 02, 2009 at 2:11 PM, ekramer17 (< 20) wrote:

Russ - we're actually talking about two different charts.  I posted all my thoughts over on the "anatomy of a rally" thread.  I'll keep posting over there so as not to be posting twice.

Sobor - great post, man!  Extremely relevant passage!

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#66) On April 02, 2009 at 2:15 PM, anchak (99.84) wrote:

I think short key range.....it either going to take a dive from here....or go up....

Numbers I am looking at 835 break or 841 break!

 

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#67) On April 02, 2009 at 2:28 PM, ekramer17 (< 20) wrote:

Jimmy, I'm a total novice, so take the following with a grain of salt.

I don't think there is any "meaning" to a complex flat.  When all is said and done, it's still a flat.  If I were going to hazard a guess, however, I would say that these levels (845-850) should represent the top of the X-wave, and that we should see a move downward to eventually somewhere between 803 and 766, which appears to be the range of the minute wave 4 within minor wave 1.  (Evidently, corrections often -- but not always -- end within the range of the fourth subwave of the motive wave that immediately precedes the correction.)  And that will be the end of minor wave 2.

Just a guess, of course.

Cabot

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#68) On April 02, 2009 at 2:31 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Russ - Binve - soboro - Columbia - Cabo - Anchak - herzt and anyone else who read the book but I forgot to mention.

We want tonight to set down all and make the best charts or numbers that we can, then come down on market vibes and post it so we can act on it.

A chart with actions that YOU believe is tradable. Wehave to put all our heads together, then everyone goes and make what they believe right.

Current 841

GoodVibe

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#69) On April 02, 2009 at 2:38 PM, columbia1 wrote:

I'am in, sometime around 3:00 PST

GV- What is the code to open the chart in another window "ENLARGE"?

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#70) On April 02, 2009 at 2:41 PM, Sobornost (< 20) wrote:

No problem.  And, my apologies for an angry outburst at the April fools day joke.  For what it's worth, it was directed at the Bizarro GV.  I'm glad it wasn't real.  I still don't think it was funny (but apparently that's my problem), but I hope that everyone got a good laugh out of my irritation and display of Irish temper.

At least I can brag that I'm doing what 98% of investors aren't able to pull off: losing money in a huge bear market rally

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#71) On April 02, 2009 at 2:48 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

GV~ I'm down, but I have a meeting from 1-6pm PST today. So I'll have to take a stab after taht.. I'll be late to the party!

Sobo~ I'm just still glad your here bro, I would hate to lose someone so important to this campaign over something like that.

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#72) On April 02, 2009 at 2:52 PM, ekramer17 (< 20) wrote:

Russ - I remember that you made a very comprehensive post about how to embed charts into a post.  I'm rumaging through all the past threads and I can't seem to find it.  You wouldn't happen to remember where you posted that, would you?

 

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#73) On April 02, 2009 at 2:55 PM, tnk2much (< 20) wrote:

For Russ ~ Hope you have a great one!!!

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#74) On April 02, 2009 at 3:02 PM, binve (< 20) wrote:

GoodVibe, That sounds like an excellent plan!

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#75) On April 02, 2009 at 3:04 PM, PrestonCheek (31.93) wrote:

Happy BDAY Russ.

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#76) On April 02, 2009 at 3:05 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Columbia - Send me an email and I'll send to you. I am not able to put it here correctly.

Cabo - I'll try to find it for you later.

Sorobo - Nothing taken brother. I had to push it little bit to make it work.

GoodVibe

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#77) On April 02, 2009 at 3:07 PM, Mary953 (80.38) wrote:

Columbia, put the arrow on the word Enlarge - then right click - from the menu that you get, choose "open in new window" 

 You can even reduce that window so that you can keep the charts available for reference.  You can keep as many as you want open that way.

Sobo - You're Irish?  ;)  Totally cool!

And just cause no one has put up a single video all day -

 

 

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#78) On April 02, 2009 at 3:18 PM, anchak (99.84) wrote:

OK....I'll try my best.......

The herd never resolves anything....small corrective a-b-c ( in a wedge) ......leave it for the big boys to come it at 3.30 EST!

 

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#79) On April 02, 2009 at 3:21 PM, columbia1 wrote:

GV- If you did not receive my e-mail here is mine, columbia1@kalama.com

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#80) On April 02, 2009 at 3:30 PM, DanDarby (< 20) wrote:

anchak,

Are you talking about the 5 count up wave that started yesterday, and that we might be at the end c in the a-b-c that started today around 11:30?

 Is that what you see?

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#81) On April 02, 2009 at 3:46 PM, innerflame (< 20) wrote:

Was gone all afternoon ( ran out of food in the house- I know GV- he's supposed to be out hunting- I did pick him up some sushi tho.)- did I miss anything exciting?

I've been watching all your charts- I just wish I had something of value to offer. 

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#82) On April 02, 2009 at 3:56 PM, Option1307 (29.73) wrote:

Is anybody watching this sell off?

If if keeps up we are likely opening lower manana...

 

SP 832 (down from 845)

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#83) On April 02, 2009 at 4:00 PM, innerflame (< 20) wrote:

AND HAPPY BIRTHDAY RUSS- nabbed this off the web

  "quite conservative in their approach to life, and because of that their success is sometimes more limited than it should be. They are intelligent planners who don't mind taking the long route. They are careful about money despite financial success. They would rather save than spend.

Dreams and Goals

April 2 natives believe in their own ability to succeed and don't worry about how long it will take to achieve success. They do not believe that anything happens by chance. Carefully planned moves and strategies help them achieve their life aspirations."

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#84) On April 02, 2009 at 4:00 PM, ekramer17 (< 20) wrote:

It's your birthday, Russ?  Happy birthday, man!

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#85) On April 02, 2009 at 4:13 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

Thanks everyone! My staff went crazy on my office this morning :)  I'm officially Mid-30's (35).... hummm But people don't understand.. I'm just 14 inside...lol

B-day would of been better if this market would get back to the dang fib. numbers!!!

That was sweet flame~~~ thanks.

Ok, off to the meeting with the bossman. (who forgot my b-day) You bet i'm going to use that to my advantage...lol

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#86) On April 02, 2009 at 4:17 PM, binve (< 20) wrote:

All EW chartists: I just posted my interpretation for the current wave count on The Anatomy of a Rally Post. When everybody posts something, then we can collectively interpret.

Russ: HAPPY BIRTHDAY MAN!!!!!

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#87) On April 02, 2009 at 5:00 PM, kstarich (30.64) wrote:

 

                               Happy birthday Russ

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#88) On April 02, 2009 at 5:16 PM, isusan (< 20) wrote:

Columbia, thanks!!

Russ, Happy Birthday!  I hope this is your best year yet!

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#89) On April 02, 2009 at 6:51 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

    Happy Birthday Brother! Be rich (in all ways) or die trying!

GoodVibe

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#90) On April 02, 2009 at 6:56 PM, mark91055 (< 20) wrote:

Here comes the grenade...if you didn't make money this week in the market you have been listening to closely to GV.  The market doesn't serve 'em up any better than this week.  This was a trader's dream.  If you missed it(broken record here) you are looking for a direction(HUGE MISTAKE) with smoke and mirrors EW (just kidding..EW is for real its just post mortem stuff).  Unless you have huge trading account you cannot afford one directional scale trading.  GV bust my balls again f I'm wrong but GV uses with leverage, $160K, at least in his example.  With as little as $20K it is near impossible because either you don't have enough increments or your allocations are too small.  GV will make money because he's smart and has deep pockets.  You won't.  Did you this week?  What should you do?  I'll say it again.."Forget direction" and scale both ways.  Options are an excellant way to do this and safer because you needn't worry about stops etc.  I find EW just as facinating as the rest of you but  expand your horizons.      my 2 cents worth(actually 4 cents since I'm up double in 2 weeks)(by the way that doesn't happen every 2 weeks, sigh.)    ,mark

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#91) On April 02, 2009 at 7:16 PM, columbia1 wrote:

GV- Thank-you very much for the link, It works!!!!

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#92) On April 02, 2009 at 7:38 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

TMFSinchiruna wrote: "You owe me an hour of my life, which obviously you can never repay... you lost all my respect. Hope your gag was worth it. For the record, I love a good April Fool's joke as much as the next guy, but there are limits, and you crossed all of them. I am NOT amused! Respect is hard-earned, but oh so easily lost."

............

Hey! Can't win 'em all! But if I owe you really anything, my dear brother, it can be found in commnet #7 just below your comment (and no offense about it).

You will always be welcome and will always be a favorite. I know you are strictly perfectionist, something I adore my self, but don't expect to shape the world on your own standards. That I learned from life and I thought to pass the thought. I noticed that about you and if a friend is really a friend, he should never hesisate to tell his friend what he notices. You easily get offended even where no offense. Wish you all the best!

....... 

Funniest things (in its own way) from the comments above:

RVAspeculator wrote:

"It is PAINFULLY obvious to someone reading even 2 seconds that Mary953 is another one of your accounts. Everyone sees through it…  Stop with the sock puppets."

......

No comments. It just speaks for itself! :)

Sorry Mary! You are the most abused one in Caps but if you think about it, it also speacks volume of how active helping people you are. Keep the good work and move on.

............

AntiRonChapmanJr wrote:

I figured, but I am still disappointed.  I was ready to show that TA does not work. Perhaps another time... ron

....

Here's a Harvard graduate (no offense to Harvard) that pride himself for logic! How can starting a new Cap that uses NO WHATSOEVER TA analysis can prove that TA doesn't work?" LOL It might prove that his methods work but TA doesn't work!! Okay! Rest my case!

................

TSIF wrote:

I'd suggest that you apologize to your community for carrying the joke a bit too far with the comment I cited above. I'm not sure I found a post with your nationality, if you could share it maybe I could better relate.

.........

One nationality - "Human". Although by your own thinking I have bunch of them. Lighten up or your jokes of milk and rent money are the only one we should be laughing about! TSIF, when you are away from bed for sometime or near a bottle like the other day, I'll urge you to stay away from your computer. You don't know what you might type.

................

Best advice I read so far to drive-by posters (One person is even a constant drive-by poster will come to mind):

"If you can't follow everything then don't follow at all, read everything before you make profound statements." Preston

GoodVibe

Back to work!

Russ - Did you answer Cabo above? And you didn't tell me how your stockchart allow you 30 years when mine allow me only 20Y?

Mark - You're doing a great job and it is evident by the return. You feel free to tell people who are interested. Just make sure to tell them also that options are not for everyone and don't try this at home stuff first. :) 

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#93) On April 02, 2009 at 7:39 PM, crystlz (60.25) wrote:

             !!!HAPPY BIRTHDAY RUSS!!!

My hope is that this is the beginning of a great year for you. I am very grateful to you for the energy that you put into this community.

I kind of like your chart  from the market vibe page showing an extended wave 1. My early call that we are in wave 3 already seems less likely now that I see the possibility of the complex extended flat. If this rally can continue through tomorrow I think that we are in a situation where the market can remain irrational longer than we can remain solvent.

peace bro 

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#94) On April 02, 2009 at 7:43 PM, ekramer17 (< 20) wrote:

No worries, GV.  I posted my charts on the market vibes thread.

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#95) On April 02, 2009 at 7:47 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Okay, Mark! I got your post #90 after I did mine in #92! Here's a little piece of trading wisdom.

              Stay humble or the market will do it for you.

You should never come and belittle others' return in their face this way. It will not go your way all the time and your way is not the only way to make money or lose it at that matter. Let people kindly find their way, comfort level, trading vehicles, and time horizon. Show them the way if you think you have it but don't go to call it THE way. There's no such thing.

GoodVibe

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#96) On April 02, 2009 at 8:08 PM, Mary953 (80.38) wrote:

Happy Birthday Russ!!!!

I wish you the very very best for all of your life.  It sounds as though you have all that I could wish for you - Love, Family, Friends, A Fulfilling and Joyful Job to go to everyday.  God has blessed you beyond anything I could add.  I am happy to call you My Friend.  It will be a belated gift, but I will try to make a chart for you.

Mary

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#97) On April 02, 2009 at 8:38 PM, mark91055 (< 20) wrote:

ooppss, thanks GV, sorry if I came across as belittling.  I don't mind aiming lighthearted jabs at you but didn't mean to offend.  I happen to think options are by far the safest play and THE way for people who can't afford risks.  Many here have expressed the fact that they have small amounts of working capitol and risk is a problem.  Options are like insurance...if I can't afford to lose my car I buy insurance.  If I can't afford the risk of 1000 shares of the QQQQ(31,000$) I buy insurance(options) for 1600$.  Now the most I can lose is 1600 not 31,000 but I get the upside if I choose right.  So now I can fund my trading system with about 10K instead of the hundreds of thousands GV uses.    food for thought

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#98) On April 02, 2009 at 8:48 PM, mark91055 (< 20) wrote:

Seriously GV, by the way, I would rather offend someone than be sweet and kind and have them chasing after some dream like what I fear is happening here.  Remember a friend is one who will tell you what others will not.  

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#99) On April 02, 2009 at 9:22 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

Thanks again everyone! 35 will indeed be a turning point in my life like none before and I am truly blessed. Also to add a social network here is awsome for me. None of my... real friends/family...lol I mean friends I see...lol let me dig a bigger hole!!! LOL do not like to talk about the stock market so it's great to have this outlet for me!

GV~ to get the 30 years, you change the date range to "select start/end date" and I just put in 1920 and it have me 30~ish years.

Cabo~ let me try and find it. Yeah we had a blog some time back that explained it pretty well. I'll have to dig as same as you. This will be a part of the beginner training course I'm going to put together in much more detail with screen shots and the whole 9 yards.

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#100) On April 02, 2009 at 9:36 PM, isusan (< 20) wrote:

Russ, I'll find it & bring it here.  You guys are doing enough working on the charts.  

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#101) On April 02, 2009 at 9:42 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Mark - I just put my two cents man of what I felt from my words. That's it. But again let me point out to you that you should never generalize your assumption as some people who come here and think they are saving the sheep from their folly.. People are not chasing dreams. People are trying to get a grasp of their financial life. I would love you twice if you see someone who exhibits such naivety, copy their text and address them personally instead of stamping everyone like the milk-money man. It's not helpful and some people now enjoy taking this route when they get frustrated with what we do here. I hope you don't take my words personally. I am just saying what I see also.

For your comments about options, I can't disagree more!! You said;

"I happen to think options are by far the safest play and THE way for people who can't afford risks. Many here have expressed the fact that they have small amounts of working capitol and risk is a problem. Options are like insurance... If I can't afford to lose my car I buy insurance. If I can't afford the risk of 1000 shares of the QQQQ (31,000$) I buy insurance (options) for 1600$.  Now the most I can lose is 1600 not 31,000 but I get the upside if I choose right. So now I can fund my trading system with about 10K instead of the hundreds of thousands GV uses.

...........

1. Options are THE riskiest play for any one after futures and this is a FACT. It's fine if it's your cup of tea as it's mine but to tell someone who never traded options, it's the safest play and THE way for people who can't afford risks is just plain too much to not call you for it.

You can lose 100% the same day if your direction, timing, strick price, volatility, or ...... is wrong. How is this can be the safest? It's the most rewarding. Yes! But it's the riskiest. I think there's no brainier. More reward equals more risk. You said yourself the direction doesn't matter!!! (Which I disagree) So how this can be helpful if you're using options when it's not important for you to know the direction? Am I missing something here?

2. How someone who doesn't have much money as you said can go and buy options as insurance and you compare this to car insurance? You are not describing insurance but describing leverage! Two different things.

It's like you are asking someone to go have insurance on a car that he doesn't have in hope he cashes in if he go and bet that a car somewhere that doesn't belong to him will crash.He has to own the QQQQ first, then go buy insurance!

You are asking people to maximize leverage with their little money not get insurance, which can clean them out of ALL their little capital in no time!

If they have 10K, they shouldn't be trading at all to begin with. No options and no day trading especially. They must swing position at top until they make enough capital so they can preserve and learn instead of jumping to options. I think you are the one who asking people to DREAM by using option. :) That's not the way to manage risk. This is the way toincreas risk.

Hey! You are the one who asked me to tell you what I think of what you do. And I just said it.

That said, we're an open forum here and everything is out there for all to see. If someone agrees with your style, let it be. It's their money. Thanks for sharing your thoughts!

GoodVibe 

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#102) On April 02, 2009 at 10:04 PM, mark91055 (< 20) wrote:

Point 1- you risk only the the amount of the option.  To buy the stock you risk the total amount.   Example as above 1000 shares qqqq risk =31000, for options 1000 shares risk =1600..you tell me which is the greater risk.  Not even close. Options much safer.

Point 2-  I agree if you only have 10,000 no trading at all.  But if you have 10,000 to risk than risk it on options because 10k trading without options is throwing money down the drain(or to brokerage).

Also what I described this week is purchasing shares on the long side and backing it up with options on the short side.  Total risk is $1.60 a share.  Total upside unlimited.

Once again...with options you are at risk only the total amount but with full shares also the full amount.  $1.60 vs $31.00 in the case of qqqq.  You do the math, hands down options are the least risky.

 

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#103) On April 02, 2009 at 10:09 PM, mark91055 (< 20) wrote:

Oh and I forgot to say thank you for saying that if they are playing with only 10K they should not be trading at all.....this has been blatantly missing in this blog.  I respect you greatly and wish that as is the physicians code that you first "do no harm".

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#104) On April 02, 2009 at 10:19 PM, isusan (< 20) wrote:

Cabo, is this it?

Russ -
You made it with your first chart! Congratulation! Good for you and for us my man. Here are some tips to help you make perfect presentation:

1. To make a link that let others enlarge your chart, write a word under your chart like enlarge, large view, or whatever then go to your Flickr page, put your chart on large size, copy the URL not the HTML from the bottom of this page, and come here and highlight the word you wrote under your chart, click the insert link button, paste your URL in it and everybody will be able to see your large version. I believe this is your URL for the large version (I got it from your posthttp://farm4.static.flickr.com/3267/3258606195_58fa4c14da_o.jpg so let's say you will use the word large. Here's how it will look in the end LARGE

2.  There's a different between Embedding HTML code in the body of your post and when you put it in a comment. When you put it in the body of your post as you tried there, you must use the URL not the HTML code. Caps for some reason don't accept HTML in the body but do in the comment section. So to overcome this in your post, use the URL from your Flickr page while the chart on medium size and come here to put it in this format:

img src="your URL here"
And put everything between < >

Once you do this, your final post will look like those I make in my posts. On the other hand, If you're posting a chart in the comment section, you can use the HTML code directly when the chart on medium size view. Then do the same LARGE thing I showed you above to let people access the large view. Notice that when the chart is in the comment section, it is clickable but some people don't notice that and if they click it, it takes them to the medium size only so the added LARGE link will help make it easy for others. 

3. Make sure to have your Flickr settings as public instead of private.

Guys, the above I wrote for Russ and all of you for future reference to anyone who needs help with the same issue, feel free to copy and paste it to anyone who asks you. Good Luck and I am looking forward for all your charts. Four eyes are better than two. Everything is worth sharing even if it's not correct. This is how we learn - from our mistakes rather than from being correct. Don't shy out.  

4. Let's go TA (I am not picking on you - this is just to help the rest understand very valuable lessons)

A. When using TA, it's nice to highlight something that already happened on the chart but unless you use it to predict the future move, it's worth little to nothing. It's like stating the obvious. If this is Cup & Handle then most of the move is already on the chart. Always look for analysis that put you a step ahead of the chart.

B. C&H with "V" shaped bottom would be considered too sharp of a reversal to qualify. Also, the trend should be a few months old and not too mature. The more mature the trend, the less chance that the pattern marks a continuation or the less upside potential. We have only three days here. But all in all it's possible and the move is already in the chart. So, it's history than future. For more study on Cup & Handle formation, check out here. And if this is your first chart, you're doing great. You might be the top student in the class. Best!

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#105) On April 02, 2009 at 10:33 PM, XMFSinchiruna (27.70) wrote:

GoodVibe4Ever

You don't know a thing about me, man. I was disappointed first by your abandonment of your own oath when I thought the post was real. I was ready and willing at that point to accept that I'd been had, as you can see from my second comment in yesterday's post, but in your subsequent comments you took it from harmless gag to malicious deception by placing your word on the line. If you find humor in betraying the trust of a fellow Fool, then I maintain that your post exhibited that your word is cheap, and your honor tarnished.

The fact that you then have the gaul to dispense advice to me is laughable. Being too easily offended is not the excess for which I am guilty.... it is caring too much about the well-being of my fellow Fools.

The degree of responsibility you bear for having created this enthusiastic offshoot of a community here in CAPS is so enormous, that it makes me cringe to realize, as I realized yesterday, the complete lack of solemnity with which you treat that responsibility.

People are vulnerable right now... many have lost a lot of capital and are eager to find a strategy they believe in. I know you issue your caveats and pleas for people to be careful, but that won't stop scores of investors here from leaping into TA-based trading based upon the excitement generated by your posts. You need to wake up every morning conscious of how huge a responsibility that is, whether you advocate that effect or not. The reason your post yesterday made me so angry when I found out it was phony was not about me and my ego, believe it or not, but because it showed how flippant you are with the trust and financial fates of so many Fools wrapped up in what you do. I have dedicated the last three years of my life to helping Fools to recognize and adapt to the largest disruption to global financial markets in history, and I care very much for the financial well-being of my fellow community members.

When I first saw how quickly your blog was gaining an audience, I was happy because I saw a guy who had a positive tone and laid out the requisite warnings, etc. As it spread to something of a cult following, I have watched with meaured cautiousness to see that you stewarded that role faithfully in the best interest of your fellow Fools. When you took that gag too far yesterday, you betrayed my trust in you and led me to then fear for the well being of your "groupies". Do you follow? How can I feel comfortable with the idea of all these people hanging on your every word after you showed yesterday how little your word means?

Surely you can understand that I feel a deep vested interest in the welfare of these community members, and occasionally I seek to defend their interests where I perceive a need. I do so by trying to uphold the values of kindness and mutual respect among members that makes TMF the place we love to visit and learn together. I do so by engaging members in spirited debate where I believe I can offer another perspective. And yesterday I did so by warning my fellow Fools to beware the false prophet. After this comment yesterday:

"For any one who doubt this challenge...

Two things I pride myself about; my name and my word. You can count on them."

... I have come to the conclusion that you do not live up to the values you espouse, and so because of the influence you wield over Fools, I deem you to be a potential danger to members of this community. That is my opinion, and I will leave it at that.

Am I not my usual happy-go-lucky self these days because of the financial crisis? It's true I am not. My heart is heavy with sadness and fear about what lies ahead for my fellow investors. There's no question that that state of being contributed to my taking the post seriously. Of all April Fools... we certainly all could have used some levity, and I'm glad a lot of people seem to have gotten a kick out of your post. For me it was like a slap in the face, though... not because it was directed to me in any way, but because impacted me with a torrent of negativity. For someone who says he's about good vibes, you definitely stirred some negative vibes in me yesterday and today. I know I'm not the only one, and I'm happy to speak for the silent minority.

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#106) On April 02, 2009 at 10:45 PM, RootnToot (29.94) wrote:

OOPS!

#127 - market vibes should be here!!

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#107) On April 02, 2009 at 11:29 PM, herztical (27.95) wrote:

Mark

Options are riskier bc they can go to 0 (worthless) much faster then a company will or an etf. Also etfs can never truly go to 0 (not the juiced ones)....you can hold stocks forever options always expire and can be worthless.

ex. if you bought MSFT leaps last year you thew your money away; vs buying MSFT outright you would be down but can possibly recover the money in say 6 months; not the case with options bc you bet on a specific time frame. Covered options are probably the only "safe" type of option.

Also, we have said numerous times you need at least 40k to trade (well anyway).

Sinch

Relax and stop typing so much. GV is not a financial advisor and if he wanted to be one I'm sure he would. I think everyone who reads the latest blog assumes we're hanging on his every word or making trades based on it...def not the case.  While I appreciate TA, it is just one tool I use before trading. I personally think it's pretty boring guessing if wave 2 down endeed or if 3 up is on but that's just me; I like studying companies and their 10ks which other people would probably rather watch paint dry. I guess what I'm saying is everyone their own person.  Are your neighbors where you live the same as you? So from GVs charts to Alstrys end of the world blogs that's what makes a community for better or worse. 

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#108) On April 02, 2009 at 11:53 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Sinch wrote -

"Am I not my usual happy-go-lucky self these days because of the financial crisis? It's true I am not. My heart is heavy with sadness and fear about what lies ahead for my fellow investors. There's no question that that state of being contributed to my taking the post seriously."

........

And this is why I really didn't get offended yesterday, today, or even now.

If you deemed me DANGEROUS because of an innocent prank among the many good deeds you stated I did, let it be. I can't force my thinking on you. I believe the majority of people didn't take it the way you took it as BETRAYL to my word, or rules. They know that I keep my word and stand behind them very well. My name and my word are the only one I own and cherish in my life. But if it's an obvious prank and practical joke that is done on APRIL 1 and once in a lifetime thing, I won't read into it that much as you read. But again, I can't convince you of that after all you said.

Last, your words of caution is out there as I always never shy from thoughtful criticism such as yours (although I don't see yours to be your best). I urge everyone of you my so abused called groupie and cult followers to heed Sinch's warning if it does make sense to you. If one person take your caution and heed their way out of the risk you think I put them into, I MYSELF will be happy that you helped someone.

Thanks for your comment. I appreicate you whatever you decide to do or say. I have nothing but love to your noble character and let it be known that I never thought to advice you in anything let alone your character for I know that the worst vice is an advice. I hope this find you and yours well.

GoodVibe 

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#109) On April 03, 2009 at 12:05 AM, BaitBoyinOK (< 20) wrote:

Is this the current lounge? I am so lost! GV - sick the trading police on my ISP immediately! I am so angry with them. A week and a half to two weeks ago they brought out a new modem (we're on DSL,) yesterday the phone line guy came out and identified a short in the line and fixed it, but I had absolutely zero connectivity, a team came out early this morning, and they had to go back and do a hard reboot of their servers to get me back on line. How frustrating that is to have missed one of the best trading weeks of the last 5 months! I don't know which blog to get the latest chart to figure out what, if anything, I need to do tonight or in the morning. Can somebody give me a link to it? I have missed so much over the last 2-1/2 days I need to get up to speed quickly. And no, what little I was able to follow at work - it has been a very, very busy week for me there - I did NOT get suckered in by GV. I know his writing style; it seemed to me that he had a little too much help in his grammar to not have been a planned and staged event, besides that it was so totally out of character for his normal persona. Might be because he actually taught me to develop a plan and then stick to it, which I have, and I have not lost a penny yet. Mind you, I AM 'playing' with real money, my and my wife's retirement, so I hedge my decisions and trigger finger with the greatest discipline and cautious patience.

At any rate, where is the latest charting and discussion on what is expected of tomorrow's activity?

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#110) On April 03, 2009 at 12:19 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Bait - It's here. Nice to see you back. A lot to read. Start with today's comments if you want to save some time. Good Luck

GoodVibe

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#111) On April 03, 2009 at 12:21 AM, BaitBoyinOK (< 20) wrote:

GV - Thank you so much, going there now...

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#112) On April 03, 2009 at 12:40 AM, BaitBoyinOK (< 20) wrote:

I'm up to #76 there at 12:46 PM EDT today. From what I have been able to catch a glimpse of today, and what I have read tonight, so far, we *might* be in wave 3, but two things concern me and keep me from pulling the trigger on any actions. 1) overbought conditions without underlying strength to sustain upward movement and 2) for the last few days of trading when there has been significant upward movement during the day, I do not see a significant upward trend at the end of the trading day to suggest a strengthening bull surge. You know my feeling toward 'news' if you have read my posts. There might be slight inflections here and there in response to *news,* but nothing that would actually shift the markets to such a point that it would indicate a major change in trend. Am I reading this right or do I need to jump ahead many posts to see the current collective interpretation of activity? Still reading over there, moving on to #77 now, but will check back here every few minutes.

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#113) On April 03, 2009 at 2:15 AM, BaitBoyinOK (< 20) wrote:

What I can see is either 770 or 797 is going to be the next retraction level. Given that scenario, I've got a few longs to unload at a profit, then sit and wait for the retrenchment move. I'm sitting on about 40% dry powder now, and if the retrenchment takes a bit longer to happen after a ride up I could be sitting on 70% or better dry powder. I just have to redo my research on the vehicles I plan to ride on the way up. As far as my 403B or whatever the government version of the 401K is, I can't get a clear picture of the move to make until I see whether or not we are going to make an actual retrenchment move or not. From what I can see, we will. Whether it bottoms at 770 or 797 I'm not sure. I might take 50% of my bond funds in the 401K and move to 1/3 large cap, 1/3 small cap, and 1/3 international - (my only choices) - and then another 40% if it falls to 770 or below. I just might have to wait to see if 797 provides a decent resistance level, then moves down from there, or if it drops like a rock, I might hold until 770 hits for the first buy-in, then add the next 40% for whatever the charts say for the bottom ancticipated level ends up being. Just frustrating to be off-line for 2-1/2 daya and then try to play catch-up in the few hours I have to make decisions on. Also, got to take the new truck in for its first oil change in the early AM, and then try to sell the older truck in the PM. I could sure use a healthy shot of Journey doing 'Don't Stop Believin" right now. Did I tell you in the 'who are we' that my wife ran a karaoke gig for a short time? Mostly just for me to sing my heart out. Got too busy with ice storm damage control to keep up with it, but we still have all the discs and equipment. Going to see Alan Jackson in a couple of weeks - that will do me some good!

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#114) On April 03, 2009 at 5:23 AM, DaretothREdux (39.76) wrote:

My newest blog is for you GoodVibe, and anyone else who finds wisdom in my words.

I am having trouble linking it b/c of all the info on this page wont load at my work. I will come back and link it in the lounge later today.

Have a great day everyone!

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#115) On April 03, 2009 at 6:17 AM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

Great Fun GV

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#116) On April 03, 2009 at 8:47 AM, ekramer17 (< 20) wrote:

Susan - that was it!  Thanks!

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#117) On April 03, 2009 at 9:25 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Good morning good fellas -

Are you strapped to your turrets and ready for last big fight? I am!

Whatever happens on the next side, it's the journey and nothing but the journey! If you wake up tomorrow with material gains or losses, fear not and joy not. The most important thing in life is your free spirit that never dies. Everything else is for naught!

I hope this find you all well. I'll be back as soon as I can.

GoodVibe
The lucky one

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#118) On April 03, 2009 at 9:30 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Keep 810.48 on your radar. If it breaks, this wave up from two days ago is not wave 3 UP.

GoodVibe

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#119) On April 03, 2009 at 9:45 AM, columbia1 wrote:

You guys were really busy last night!!!

 Anchak, that was really interesting how you came up with 797. All in all, that was a very productive exercise, there were quite a few scenarios that  were correct, governed by the rules and guidelines that could play out in the next two to three days. In my mind it all goes back to what GV has been saying, Buy on the pull-backs.

Russ, hope you feel alive and vibrant this morning ;)

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#120) On April 03, 2009 at 10:07 AM, ranger66 (< 20) wrote:

Is there any chance we'll get a chart or two today by anyone?

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#121) On April 03, 2009 at 10:20 AM, isusan (< 20) wrote:

Good Morning, all!  Here's where the charts are, Ranger.    

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#122) On April 03, 2009 at 10:21 AM, DaretothREdux (39.76) wrote:

Ok. I'm at home now. And here is the link.

Enjoy! And happy trading.

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#123) On April 03, 2009 at 10:21 AM, anchak (99.84) wrote:

GV says: 

"Keep 810.48 on your radar. If it breaks, this wave up from two days ago is not wave 3 UP."

Ummm...yes and I know why you are saying it..... because then the 4th will enter 1st ......

But its not conclusive ....because we do not know whether this is a 4th or a 2nd yet.

However, 805-810 is your line-of-fight range ...if it starts going below.....somethings materially changed ( a 61.8% retrace from here puts it at 807)

Lets keep cool heads.....I have 1 hit-and-run position....against 3 longs and 1 nonsensical put. 

Bullish side: It''ll turn in the 820-823 range

 

 

 

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#124) On April 03, 2009 at 10:55 AM, XMFSinchiruna (27.70) wrote:

GoodVibe4Ever

Thanks for your comments (#108). While I stand by my words above, I also concede that I get way too wrapped up defending the interests of my fellow Fools as my conscience dictates. As you recognize above, it all comes from a good place. I'll pledge to stop taking things so seriously around here, if you'll pledge to tread carefully with the financial fate of your minions. :) And next year on April 1, just don't give your word that it's not a joke.

I believe in communicating and moving on. I communicated my honest reactions to your posts, reminded Fools to be careful, and upon reflection this morning, I want to say that while the gag was in poor taste and did raise some red flags, I nonetheless believe that you have positive intentions with everything you do here.

 

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#125) On April 03, 2009 at 11:00 AM, mark91055 (< 20) wrote:

Herztical, Most people don't understand options.  In your example of MSFT -

to buy an equal number of shares with options you would have lost the full amount of the option or about 3-5 dollars per share.  But if you bought the shares you would have lost 13 dollars per share.  Seems obviouse option safer.  But in reality I would never buy naked calls.  I probably would have considered a straddle on MSFT and made a ton of money.  Like I said options are the safest way to play.  Here is why-

Buy the shares and you are at risk full amount.

Buy the options and you are at risk only the cost of the option which is a fraction of the full amount. 

And lastly if you want the absolute minimum amount of  risk than as you said covered calls are the best.

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#126) On April 03, 2009 at 11:17 AM, crystlz (60.25) wrote:

TMFSinchiruna,

I am definately in the category of uniformed investors who have made a lot of mistakes that have lost me a lot of money. I am however; still standing and I am watching and learning everyday. Even those of us who have made emotional deciisions with our trades can still find the humor in an April Fool's post.

I certainly appreciate and value your concern for fellow fools.

peace bro 

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#127) On April 03, 2009 at 11:41 AM, DanDarby (< 20) wrote:

Here is an udpate to my chart from last night. Lets see if I can post it correctly.

Enlarge

 SPX 831

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#128) On April 03, 2009 at 11:42 AM, PrestonCheek (31.93) wrote:

Anchak, I have a feeling your right on the 820 mark. I'm still holding one short but I fixing to start some long positions.

I'm sorry guys bot the 804 mark is looking harder and harder to get to, I know down the road maybe but I think near term we go higher before we go lower.

Just my thoughts and not advice, most of my money is on the sidelines until this plays out.

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#129) On April 03, 2009 at 11:42 AM, DanDarby (< 20) wrote:

Hmm, still can't get that little image to work.

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#130) On April 03, 2009 at 11:57 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Dan - I told you last night that your count is almost perfect but you still didn't tell me is this count of 3 of A or something else. I would love to know your thinking. And can you count from few days earlier than your count so I can know from where are you coming.

Current 832

GoodVibe

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#131) On April 03, 2009 at 12:00 PM, ekramer17 (< 20) wrote:

Sinch -

I've been following and participating in the GoodVibe discussions for quite some time now.  I've learned much but still have yet to risk a penny of my own in the market based on what I've learned in those threads. Before doing so, I would prefer to have the utmost confidence in my ability, and at the present time I have no delusions about the fact that I am a novice's novice.  If I continue to learn and improve, perhaps I will one day reach the point where I feel comfortable putting cash behind my convictions, but rest assured that it will be only because I have confidence in my own convictions and not because I am adhering blindly to the market calls of someone else.

I would dare say that I'm in the vast majority of GoodVibe's "minions" as you call us.  We are intelligent people and independent thinkers who enjoy learning something about which we are ignorant. Yes, I see the occasional post of "what should I do with my existing positions?" in the threads, but those posts are (a) not from the regulars, (b) recognized as inappropriate in the spirit of the discussions, and (c) summarily ignored.

So while the intent behind your concern is appreciated, the concern itself is unnecessary.  I do not wish to see you wasting your energy worrying about those for whom you have no need to worry.

Lastly, I urge you to consider that the level at which you express your concern is actually rather condescending toward us.  Your low estimation is also in evidence by the labels with which you collectively address us (groupies, minions, et al).  I would ask that you please try to raise your opinion of us just a little bit. We just might even deserve it.

Cabot

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#132) On April 03, 2009 at 12:10 PM, PrestonCheek (31.93) wrote:

Cabot, thanks for saying that, I will again say that I do not have the restrictive rationale to type such well meant words under anger, so I just do not say anything.

GV, thanks for noticing my chart in the other blog, yes I am trying and yes I will get there. :)

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#133) On April 03, 2009 at 12:16 PM, anchak (99.84) wrote:

Here's is Dan's chart......Pretty good

 

 

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#134) On April 03, 2009 at 12:17 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

Markets are like the "Horse Latitudes" today. Thank heavens Chairman Bernanke is speaking today ; )

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#135) On April 03, 2009 at 12:18 PM, binve (< 20) wrote:

DanDarby, I just looked at the HTML source for your comment and you are pasting the wrong URLs.

After you upload the photo, go to your "Photostream" and click on the photo. There will be several links / buttons above the photo.

Click on the one that says "All Sizes"

After you do you will see at the top "Small / Medium / Large" etc. Click on the Medium or Small one.

Now at the bottom of the photo there are some text boxes with HTML in it.  Go to box 2 labeled: Grab the photo's URL

This is what you should insert into the code I gave you last night.

Use the small photo URL inside the IMG Tag
Use the large photo URL inside the a Tag

Hope that makes sense!

 

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#136) On April 03, 2009 at 12:24 PM, DanDarby (< 20) wrote:

GV

I'm leaning towards the thinking we are in wave 3 which started on March 31. I (like you say) am just reading the tape that's given to me.

I know a lot of people are still short, and we could still go either way. But the chart right now is telling me we are leaning towards the wave 3.

SPX might have just broken out of that channel which c or (iv) formed, and I think we are now starting wave (v) in my chart heading up.

These are just my thoughts, what are you all thinking?

I'll go back a few days and post my chart from march 8 as soon as I have time (I'm still trying to get the hang of it too), most of it looks like yours.

 

Thanks binve, I'll try that next time

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#137) On April 03, 2009 at 12:28 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

isusan ~Perfect, thanks for finding it!!!

Columbia... Yeah I'm a little hung over this morning. Perfect for my meeting in 5 minutes for and IP migration...lol Fun times last night!!

Market looks pretty crazy today. I'll check back in, in a couple of hours.

~happy hunting~

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#138) On April 03, 2009 at 12:35 PM, Mary953 (80.38) wrote:

Chris,

You and GV are both favorites of mine.  If there was no way to designate a person as a favorite, you would each still hold a special place for me.  The reason is, for both of you, the same.  You both care deeply about the people here.  Neither of you consider it inappropriate to let others know that you have their welfare at heart.  For some reason, unknown to me, there are those that count caring as weakness or foolishness.  If so, I hope that they consider me as weak and foolish as the two of you are.  I would be honored to be counted with such fine company. 

I was absent from most of the April 1 proceedings.  I am still discovering the pranks on the web here and there.  Perhaps I did not get the worst of the pranksters' joking because in every case, I came along reading joke and outing of the joke almost simultaneously.  This allowed me to ask, 'would I have been caught?'  In many cases, the answer was probably yes, but I didn't have the entire day to be curious.

Mary

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#139) On April 03, 2009 at 12:44 PM, GVdrone (< 20) wrote:

How do you guys see the daily volume or s&p or individual stocks? how is the volume of the bounce on s&p just now?

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#140) On April 03, 2009 at 12:44 PM, DanDarby (< 20) wrote:

Lets try again,

 Enlarge

How's this?

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#141) On April 03, 2009 at 12:46 PM, binve (< 20) wrote:

DanDarby, BEAUTIFUL! Excellent, man. Glad its working :)

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#142) On April 03, 2009 at 12:54 PM, ekramer17 (< 20) wrote:

Dan - that's a great looking chart!  I could also see that 3 being an X wave, possibly followed by a zig-zag down.  Basically, I have no idea what's going on. :)

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#143) On April 03, 2009 at 12:54 PM, gonelong (34.95) wrote:

Question for GV - you seem to follow the Dow and S&P, do you dabble in any foreign exchanges? 

It would seem that there would be a favorable wave to trade somewhere when we have a situation such as this one where we think we might be going sideways for some time. 

I guess the flipside is that you want to concentrate all your efforts into nailing one rather than spreading them out an missing something on one or both.

-gonelong 

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#144) On April 03, 2009 at 1:00 PM, Mary953 (80.38) wrote:

Russ I still owe you a birthday chart and I know just the one.  With the instructions here, I will try later today.  Right now I have another appointment to get ready for and am running late.

In the meantime,

Baitboy - at least I know how to do this fairly quickly.  It may give you something to listen to while you read through the rest of the posts here!

Oh - and I don't really like the looks of what I have been seeing.  I've closed all shorts, Only longs open are long-term investments (the ones that move like molasses in January and just pay their steady dividends while I sleep soundly).  the rest will have to wait til I can be more actively engaged in market activity and less in tax activity.

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#145) On April 03, 2009 at 1:04 PM, XMFSinchiruna (27.70) wrote:

cabotb21

Thanks, man. For the record, though, 'groupies' didn't come from me. :) GV referred to you as groupies here. :) I assure you I have great respect for the members of this community, and I apologize for use of the word 'minions'. I know it's a free-thinking, highly-intelligent Fool who comes to this community in the first place.

crystlz

Peace to you too! I'm starting to find the humor in it now that the sting has worn off. ;)

Mary953

Thanks, Mary.  You're definitely a top favorite of mine as well!! You embody the spirit of community that I enjoy so much about this site. Yup, color me weak and foolish too... I care. That doesn't make me a 'Sinchifairy'. ;)

GoodVibe4Ever

We're cool, bro. Sorry for getting worked up.

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#146) On April 03, 2009 at 1:09 PM, mark91055 (< 20) wrote:

Hello,

I rebought some of the calls I sold yesterday in the small sell off this morning.  I have many open puts(short positions) so i consider this like a straddle.  I was able to buy the out of the money April calls that I sold yesterday back; at half the price.  There are two weeks to go before they expire and a movement of a few percent up will allow me to sell.  If not a few percent down and my puts kick in and I won't care if the calls expire worthless.  The no-mans land is if the Russle200 goes neither up or down for two weeks.  I sat out much of January because of the lack of volitility.  However after seeing you guy's charts I once again admit I don't have a clue on direction(like you all) but I am convinced we will see some action soon.  Too much going on right now for the market to stagnate. 

Now what does GV say...."I hope this adds value to your thinking"

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#147) On April 03, 2009 at 1:10 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Thanks Dan! Now, I see where are you coming from to know where are you going. The count is perfecto not only for 3 but also for C, X, and for one more thing I'll keep to myself for now until I see a confirmation.

Wave 3 is not making sense to me because wave 3 is the strongest -beauty to be hold- and if you saw how wave 1 behaved, it's nothing comparing to 3. It's like the gold rush. The behavior in the last few days is nothing near this (yet) and the bulls really put all their dishes and the kitchen sink itself into bringing us here. I really don't believe this to be 3 but we trade the charts and not what we believe, right?

gone - I don't trade them so I don't spend time there. But EWP can apply for sure if you like to try it yourself.

Did you read Dare's post today? wait for my rebuttal against this evil person. How dare him? :)

Current 834.61

GoodVibe

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#148) On April 03, 2009 at 1:24 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Chris -

We were never been nothing but cool.

Do we take #145 to be an indication that you're applying now to be one of our groupies, cult followers, milk money traders, Wanna be rich, sock puppets, ..etc? Come on man! You can't beat such an honor! :)

GoodVibe

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#149) On April 03, 2009 at 1:29 PM, isusan (< 20) wrote:

GoodVibe, the moment he embeds a youtube clip, we got him!  C'mon, Chris, I know you want to...

 

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#150) On April 03, 2009 at 1:31 PM, ekramer17 (< 20) wrote:

Sinch - D'oh!  I stand corrected!  GV, how dare you call us groupies! :-P

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#151) On April 03, 2009 at 1:32 PM, mark91055 (< 20) wrote:

Could it be wave 5 began an hour or so ago up on a set that began at SPX 78 on the 30th.  From Dans chart thats my bet. After that :a nice correction down.  Maybe its just wishful thinking since that would be a straddlers dream.  Collect on the top; then the bottom.

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#152) On April 03, 2009 at 1:35 PM, PrestonCheek (31.93) wrote:

LOL just embed one clip.

Dan, that is a very good chart.

 

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#153) On April 03, 2009 at 1:35 PM, Mary953 (80.38) wrote:

BTW all, groupies comes from Motley Fool itself!  Click on the favorites tab.  It will show those you have chosen as your favorites.  In the corner, if any have given you that very high honor, it will say, something like "show my groupies" and if you click there, it shows anyone who has chosen to add you to their list.  I think this is where the term groupies comes from.  No negative implied, just picking up the word that was there.  So to my favorites, count me a groupie.  You have said something, done something, or exhibited some admirable trait that I admire!

Guilty as charged - and I am certain that I haven't found even half of those who deserve high honors yet.  One thing that does not and will not ever matter on the list for me is how well you pick stocks.  ;)

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#154) On April 03, 2009 at 1:40 PM, ekramer17 (< 20) wrote:

Mary - D'oh!  I stand corrected again!  Too much standing corrected...maybe I should just sit down. :)

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#155) On April 03, 2009 at 1:45 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

isusan wrote:

GoodVibe, the moment he embeds a youtube clip, we got him!  C'mon, Chris, I know you want to...

 ..........

Yes man! You can do it. YOU CAN DO IT. We will be here for you. We will give you all the blood you need. You will never need to hunt yourself :)

Current 833.64

Can anybody move this tape one way or another. Sigh!

GoodVibe

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#156) On April 03, 2009 at 1:56 PM, XMFSinchiruna (27.70) wrote:

But what a fool believes he sees
No wise man has the power to reason away
What seems to be
Is always better than nothing
Theres nothing at all
But what a fool believes he sees...

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#157) On April 03, 2009 at 2:04 PM, isusan (< 20) wrote:

rofl!!

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#158) On April 03, 2009 at 2:05 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

We got him. HE IS ONE OF US NOW!

GoodVibe

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#159) On April 03, 2009 at 2:16 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Sinch - Now is the time that you giveaway all your gold, silver, miners' stocks, and all worldly possessions to the community, change your name, and renounce your old ways of living. :)

Thanks man for the good spirited that proved me that you're the one I always thought you to be.

On a serious note: I will urge to pay careful attention to G.S.M positions. We're near making new low since we topped and if this happened, it will be ugly. I just thought to pass the red flag. I hope this added some value to your thinking and sorry to be the barrier of bad news. I warned before somewhere in Caps that when the IMF sells their gold, it will not be fun for gold and silver holders. They need DOLLARS to combat deflation even with all these trillions dollars put into the black hole so far.

If you can't beat them, at least stop fighting them.

GoodVibe

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#160) On April 03, 2009 at 2:21 PM, GVdrone (< 20) wrote:

GoodVibe4Ever,

Would you care to elaborate?  the new long is some kind of resistence, if we break it, it's a falling knife?

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#161) On April 03, 2009 at 2:24 PM, GVdrone (< 20) wrote:

the new GSM low* is some kind of resistence? trouble if broken?

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#162) On April 03, 2009 at 2:35 PM, ayekappy (< 20) wrote:

So there have been like 30 mini waves today right? It looks like a really warped saw.  Or a saw with teeth on its teeth.  Crazy.

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#163) On April 03, 2009 at 3:06 PM, XMFSinchiruna (27.70) wrote:

On a serious note: I will urge to pay careful attention to G.S.M positions. We're near making new low since we topped and if this happened, it will be ugly. I just thought to pass the red flag. I hope this added some value to your thinking and sorry to be the barrier of bad news. I warned before somewhere in Caps that when the IMF sells their gold, it will not be fun for gold and silver holders. They need DOLLARS to combat deflation even with all these trillions dollars put into the black hole so far.

Sorry, GV... nothing could be further from the truth. You're accepting the on-camera message out of the G20 without filtering through for the real nuggets behind the headlines. The gold sales anount to a pittance, and will be snatched up by the likes of China and Russia's central banks without ever seeing the open market. The sell-off shows how effective they can be about controlling their messages through the media, as well as the preponderance of misunderstanding with respect to how the gold and silver markets operate, but the real story behind the G20 is enormously bullish for gold.

You can't have trillions and trillions of additional dollars created out of thin air for the world to consume without that filtering down into upward price pressure on gold. 

$860 is extremely likely to hold as meaningful support at this stage: http://www.jsmineset.com/

"It appears to me that the most likely scenario is for it to continue to slowly drift lower down towards stronger support near the $890 - $880 level. I would prefer to see it hold there as it would prevent a bout of serious long liquidation and a sharp move down to near $860 - $850. The 860 level is near the 50 week moving average on the longer term charts. There is not much support below that level until you get down to near the 100 week moving average that comes in at the $828 level. For the bulls to get anything going, they are going to have to push price above the $940 level. It is just that simple. Until they do, the bears are gaining the technical edge with the short term indicators all favoring their view."

 

Of the three factors presently affecting the gold price right now -- upward pressure from fundamental developments, downward pressure from psychologically-driven selling from market strength and G20 propaganda, and technical drivers... the strengthening fundamentals trump all others in scale and significance, and therefore provide the most solid basis for deciding which way to position oneself on precious metals. The rule of technical factors was more in play near $1,000, but was undermined overnight by the onset of quantitative easing weeks ago. Since then, psychological factors from market rallies to false assumptions about the impacts of ever-increasing interventions has seemed to drive prices in volatile sideways trading. No one can know exactly when fundamentals will again exert their influence over these psychological factors, but with currency-related developments cropping up all over the world that present the risk of a cascading sel-off of USD assets, the safer bet remains with the fundamentals. Understanding the significance of the $1 quadrillion+ global market for derivatives in the context of this crisis is central to understanding gold's trajectory.

As I've said in a previous post of yours, Fools concerned about near-term dips... go neutral if you must... but for God's sake please please please don't consider shorting gold or silver at this stage. It could quite literally be the worst financial mis-step of your lives. Gold and silver are the ONLY viable protections available from the coming onslaught of dollar weakness predicated by a world gone mad with paper-printing fever. 

In the broader picture, again, I could care less about these short-term swings. Sub-$800 gold would be welcomed by me as a wonderful buying opportunity, but I think that is highly unlikely.

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#164) On April 03, 2009 at 3:11 PM, binve (< 20) wrote:

Hey GV and Sinch,

I am in full agreement with TMFSinchiruna here. GSM and Gold seem overbought technically only on the very short term. But this G20 announcement is BS. Read this article that I posted earlier today: G20 and IMF Gold Sales: A Late April Fool's

I would defintely urge everyone never to go naked short or GSM or Gold / Silver. Just my $0.02. :)

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#165) On April 03, 2009 at 3:25 PM, anchak (99.84) wrote:

WARNING!

I am going to sound an alarm here and be as harsh as I can to shake things up

...... I think most of us are being remiss in doing our homework....... and more prone to quote passages which conform to our thinking.

I am going to cross-post this across both blogs. Also pardon - but I am not a StockCharts subscriber - so I had to do this of Yahoo! Finance.....

ENLARGE 

Key observations
=================

(1) We are still in {1}
(2) 3 of {1} is NOT A BEAUTY TO BEHOLD! Infact you would not know a 3 from 2 unless it came up and bit you ...... ( look at my slide and also check out the 1974 bottom - unfortunately these are only 2 instances and hence not a statistically significant sample ....but that's the problem with recessionary bottom)

(3) I expect {1} to go as high as 877 .....look at slides....essentially a double top formation for the Bear to come back full force in {2} .....also watch the Bollingers....

(4) {2} will be UGLY! True EWT style.....at least 61.8% retrace.....meaning we are looking at 750.

(5) Look at the time scale ( this bear is a warped speed compress express) - but possibly over 4-6 weeks.

I suggest we continue to analyze this over the weekend.

 

Comments welcome!

 

 

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#166) On April 03, 2009 at 3:30 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Sinch and Binve - You know guys I never factor news into my thinking or trust what these guys say in the media. I knew about this sale and communicated it far before the G20. I also factored this FACT not news when I called the top for gold not because it will effect the supply and demand in the gold market but it will greatly effect the psychology and start what falsely can become a call for no need to gold in the new world order, which will induce that short term selling in G.S.M that I am after to cash my shorts and go long at a comfortable price when all hell open in the real world due to future inflation and financial instability.

You know I like to see the trees from the forest. And I am actually hedging by going long oil 1 to 1 short G.S.M as I explained why in my G.S.M post. (which I believe to be a brilliant simple move) :) It's win/win situation, which is working perfectly. Live charts are updated there if you want to check them out.

So all in all we're speaking of different time frames. You think G.S.M will hold grounds more than my TA tells me, so we have to wait and see. We have tops in place and you guys have to top it first while I sit on that top watching patiently for time to take care for all things. It's a position trade that will take few months from start to finish.

Current 834.51 - Anyone want to grab a beer? What do you think Cabo?

GoodVibe

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#167) On April 03, 2009 at 3:39 PM, XMFSinchiruna (27.70) wrote:

An Asset More precious than Gold?

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#168) On April 03, 2009 at 3:39 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

anchak -

What is this? What do you mean we are in {1}. Do you mean we're still in 1 of A?

Okay! I don't even know what's going on here or what I am asking about? Can you come again? WHat we are talking about here?

GoodVibe - Confused

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#169) On April 03, 2009 at 3:53 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

Anch~ Oh noes..... Wave 1 is a???? Extended diagonal Triangle. My madness might prove to be right after all...lol

GV~ Don't mention beer

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#170) On April 03, 2009 at 3:59 PM, ekramer17 (< 20) wrote:

Could be, Russ!  And maybe you should grab that beer...hair of the dog, you know. :)

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#171) On April 03, 2009 at 4:14 PM, binve (< 20) wrote:

anchak,

That is a really interesting theory! I love how you are doing the post-analysis on the 2002 bottom. Russ, you crazy genius, I think you really might have something!!

Hmmmmm.... This will really require some pondering. My expanding flat theory has now been invaldiated today. I was charting the progress and the move at the end of the day broke every 1-2-3-4-5 that I was drawing.

anchak and Russ, man I love the out of the box thinking!!

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#172) On April 03, 2009 at 4:15 PM, runningin777 (< 20) wrote:

GV -

I've been faithfully following, reading, practising and studying EW, but too busy at work to comment, but I see what anchak is saying...

He's looking back in time and seeing a pattern similar to our Oct 2008 - present situation.  His "The bottom" point would correspond to your "The Bottom" point of 666 in March and the climb up to his {1} in an abcde fashion would be the A of P2 you've talked about. (IMHO)

Runningin

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#173) On April 03, 2009 at 4:34 PM, ekramer17 (< 20) wrote:

anchak - this isn't chart-related, but if you'd like to do some more studying of past bottoms, you might find Napier's "Anatomy of the Bear" interesting reading.

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#174) On April 03, 2009 at 4:35 PM, binve (< 20) wrote:

anchak / Russ / All,

Here is my count for the 2002 bottom. I put away anchaks chart so I would do my count independently. And though there are some minor discprepancies, I agree with the overall count.

I am going now play around with Russ's count from last night. Very interesting :)



Enlarge

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#175) On April 03, 2009 at 4:38 PM, anchak (99.84) wrote:

GV....I am going to send you a detailed email tonight.

I badly need a good charting software .....with full Fib capability with historical data on $SPX way back ( like Yahoo! goes to 1950).

Quick assertion:

DATA
======

The chart's from 2002-2004, SPX ( so do not get confused with the values because the range is similar to today's)

Observations
---------------------

(1) I'll eschew nomenclature/labeling here. Look at the 1st sub-wave of {1}  of a bottom in the previous cycles - its the sharpest and almost always is Wave  EQUAL  -  in context to sub-wave 3.

(2) Sub-wave 3 is essentially quagmired with sub-wave 2 .....and unless you knew the forward outcome - which we don't ( see these historicals are all 20/20 hindsight) - you wouldn't be able to call it definitively.

(3) Sub-wave 2 correction in the context of sub-wave 1 is SHALLOW , you have a lot of SHARP corrections ...but not DEEP ( See my comments all over  - binve's blog, GV  etc about this possibility)

(4) What will be SHARP and DEEP will be {2} as mentioned by Elliot - it'll scare the bejesus out of bulls. Make all CALL options worthless ( 2002 was almost full retrace, 1974 it was around 61.8% ) 

(5) Look at the time scale - it took about 2 weeks to form 1st sub-wave phase of {1} in 2002...then it treaded water ( but look at the OHLC bars - there was a lot of volatility - complete mood swings - as we are getting now)....

Then another 4 weeks for an inverted 3-wave up( c-d-e) - to complete {1}.

Obviously in these days of trigger-happy trading we'll get compressed warp speed unfolding.

But main point - there's no 3 - at least not in the normal form. You could easily morph the c-d-e structure into a 3-4-5 such that 3 is wave equal to 1....but a priori - it looks like inverted corrective wave from here.

Basically, it may continue to flip-flop and somehow gasp out around the 877-900 level because of resistance.

Earnings season starts next-week and I think it'll be mixed bag. You'll get optimisim from where its unexpected and then things that have been run up big will be sold on news. As I said nightmarish to trade.

GV you said - find the edge.....my preferance is to wait.....and for some reason I think it'll not be to go long ....but to ride {2} down....and not from here.

 

GV  treat this  with an open mind….it’ll add value Report this comment
#176) On April 03, 2009 at 4:43 PM, binve (< 20) wrote:

anchak, that is BRILLIANT historical analysis and a very good psychological read on the market. This is awesome!

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#177) On April 03, 2009 at 4:48 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Uh! I don't know how a smart guy like you who can dissect numbers in a flash the way you do but not able to get a chart from Stockchart up and running! :) I know. You use your numbers' side of the brain and I use my visual side. If we just get to put both together in one body? I guess this is what we're trying to do here.

I didn't know you put a large view past chart! I was looking to this and saying why this thing looks funny? Then I read and I got more confused! :)

I got it now and I'll tell you from what I understood that you're not in the right place. I'll have to post that chart I promised to post only at the end of C to explain where we are really coming from.  

And for binve’s “out of the box thinking comment”, be careful! There's no thinking out of any box here. Only rules otherwise we all go nuts looking for what we want to see rather than what's already there.

Take your rest and be ready for another thought provoking session like last night if possible during the weekend. I’ll be there for sure Sunday if not earlier.

Enjoy it now for tomorrow is granted for no one. Be happy, do good, okay.. okay.. I know you know the rest… :)

GoodVibe  

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#178) On April 03, 2009 at 4:53 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Okay - I got your post after I posted mine and I'll read it as well as your email tommorow when I get some rest from all this. I sure enjoy your thinking and sure think about everything you say. It really add value eto all of us and I see a lot of people get what you said even if I didn't get it (yet).

GoodVibe

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#179) On April 03, 2009 at 4:53 PM, binve (< 20) wrote:

anchak, send me an email at

meewhooo2 AT yahoo.com

 

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#180) On April 03, 2009 at 4:59 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

This one can help you for now.It goes allthe way back to the beginning. I also use them for some of their obscure TA indicators. Hope it will help. You guys can try it too. It's fun to see the whole DOW, S&P, and everything else from the beginning. 

Man, I gotta go! I want to stop reading anything for couple days. If I just can afford it! :)

GoodVibe

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#181) On April 03, 2009 at 5:09 PM, anchak (99.84) wrote:

cabotb21 : Always wanted to do that. All right will be on my next list from Amazon ( I continously add to the revenue stream of that company!)

binve  & others: I badly need to have the ability to do the Fib tool in StockCharts...... ( I cant do that in any time periods less than daily frequency - I am not a member) - but maybe this one I can.

If someone could help out - I'll do some more analysis - if this is helpful.

You need to look at the 1975 bottom and possibly 1980-81 to gain some more understanding.

On the chart - great work as usual. 

And now an interesting observation - if you had to conform {1} to a proper 5 wave structure - following  strict Elliot rules - how would you do it.

And please do not go down the path of calling the actual bottom in 2002 - and "unorthodox" one and the real one being end of {2} in both mine and binve's chart.

I think it will expand our understanding

 

 

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#182) On April 03, 2009 at 5:12 PM, binv271828 (< 20) wrote:

Thanks GoodVibe! What I meant by "out-of-the-box" is not to break or even bend the rules.

An option that several of us (including me) was focused on was that Wave 1 has ended. And I was trying to reconcile why we didn't get a selloff of these overbought conditions. You know the kind of sentiment that anchak describes above. Also from Elliott pp 77, Wave 2. Things are still to euphoric / happy. 

That is why I wrote my: "Why I think this rally stinks" post yesterday. Because it felt too easy that we would be into Wave 3. This is why I kept working in the Expanded Flat idea. Becuase I wanted to find a pattern that fit with what my other indicators were telling me and with what my gut was telling me.

And this is why anchak and Russ's idea was out-of-the-box. It was (to be specific) outside of my box. :)

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#183) On April 03, 2009 at 5:14 PM, binv271828 (< 20) wrote:

anchak, this is exactly why I want you to send me an email. I think we have much to discuss here :).

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#184) On April 03, 2009 at 5:19 PM, columbia1 wrote:

Anchak- If you need access to stockcharts, e-mail me and I will give you my password.  columbia1@kalama.com

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#185) On April 03, 2009 at 5:21 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

And now i'm going to Red Lobster for some crab, YUM!!!! I'm going to win the biggest piece of crab contest for sure this time!

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#186) On April 03, 2009 at 5:46 PM, binve (< 20) wrote:

anchak and all,

Here is an hourly chart for waves (1) and (2) of the 2002 bottom. Look at all of the crazy moves and volatility. 



Enlarge
 

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#187) On April 03, 2009 at 6:00 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

Anchak, #165:

I can see that there is room to head down, but couldn't we also be similar to the April 81 - April 82 scenerio.  We might be too compressed for that, but in Oct 81, we dipped similar to Nov 2008.  Then we bottomed April 82, similar to March 9, 2009.  And then up at a good clip from there.

Is there  more inclination on a double bottom to have the biggest dip first or second?

 

 

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#188) On April 03, 2009 at 6:04 PM, columbia1 wrote:

Bivne-On December 1st on that chart, it sure looks like wave 3 was underway, then BAM!!,  That is awful spooky, and probably caught a lot of bulls off guard. We need to check what the other technicals were saying during November to see if there are any similarities between then and now.

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#189) On April 03, 2009 at 6:08 PM, binve (< 20) wrote:

columbia, Yes indeed! Bottoms should not be easy business, and the last couple of weeks have felt waaaaaaay too easy. Yeah, I will try to put a revised count together for tonight for the current rally. It will be based of Russ's work.

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#190) On April 03, 2009 at 6:38 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

GV, 

IN regard to my #13 and your reply in #92.

I don't mix drinking and my computer or investing.  My typing finese, or lack of it is due to my limited time and meager brain getting ahead of my fingers.  I could see where it being caused by drinking might come into your thoughts, but alas, I have been sober when posting to your blogs.  I'll try to continue with that model.

I am definitely suffering from lack of sleep, so I appreciate your advice on late night replies to blogs.

My post  #13 had the same concerns as  TMFSinchiruna in #105, when you stretched the April Fool by including your "word".  While we are all of the human race, we all have environmental and genetic differences that all make us different and are part of who we are.  It also makes us different in our investing, ability to try new things, and in our risk levels. I appreciate the humor that you weave into your replies and I appreciate you for being you.   (Even if you are really half of Dareto's many hands).

Apparently Sinchiruna shares the concern for our fellow fools as I do.  While I appreciate the many replies you receive from Fools who indicate they use you as a tool by adding what they learn here to their own tools and style and while I respect many of the readers are savvy investors, I still have concerns for a small percent of the readers.  I am sorry if that steps on your toes that I worry about people's milk and rent money.  I do mean it at that level. That is part of my environemental makeup. I can't help it anymore than you can help being you.  I know poverty and I know gambling and I know the effects of them. 

 There are a small percent of your readers who are stretching to make up lost money by using money they should not be using, certainly not in the manner they are using it.  They are weaved into your threads and are part of the pattern that develops as you knit your audience together.  They hide in some of the smaller posts looking for an "answer" and asking about options and 3X ETF's. 

 I have commented before, and I will one last time, that I KNOW you are concerned about them as well. You do warn them and you can't make them all listen.  Your example of why an investment account of $10,000 should be used long or swing and grown, as skills develop, was excellent.  Perhaps you or  TMFSinchiruna ,who have a better use of your words and a better relationship with the posters could do a blog on what it really means to be long, swing, short, etc.

My apologies as well for not agreeing with the use of your word in a prank.  To each his own and to Goodvibe being who he is, and again, I think very highly of you and your efforts.

Lastly, it's clear to me that you and Mary are not the same poster. She is clearly not only brighter, but much better looking.

Thank you for the space.  If you charge by the inch then tell me where to send the check, or what type of wine to send you, since if I keep living on these message boards I will not be able to drink it myself!

TSIF

 

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#191) On April 03, 2009 at 6:39 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

Binve~ Here is the Live chart from last night.

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#192) On April 03, 2009 at 6:48 PM, binve (< 20) wrote:

Thanks Russ!

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#193) On April 03, 2009 at 8:02 PM, Tastylunch (29.22) wrote:

binve

AH I remember the 2002 Bottom pretty well. I went long hard on March 20th-23rd ish 2003 if I remember right. Think that was the day(s) we announced we were going to mess up Saddam.

I remember thinking well crap if the makret is going to rally on then I guess It's party time. Wish I had the guts to buy ask.com back then think it was ten bagger. Sometimes you can get lucky.

 Kinda reminscient of now really in some ways, horrible news was a huge positive catalyst

Take a look at Kimco(KIM) it's up 20% on 25% dilution now. That's just stupid. Hurray euphoria!

 2003 was an insanely easy year to get double digit returns. think even my worst fund was up 20%.

Pretty sure Investor's Business Daily actually called that one (october 2002) out live in the USA Today if I remember right. They took out a full page ad on something like page A16.

anchak's scenario seems like the one that may fit the best right now imo.

Well looks like I had better readjust my positions then, this bear rally looks to be even more powerful than I anticipated. C'est la vie, I still have my money :)

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#194) On April 03, 2009 at 8:03 PM, anchak (99.84) wrote:

#187) On April 03, 2009 at 6:00 PM, TSIF (33.26)

And others

My feeling is do not get married to an idea - this was just an illustration - history has a tendency to repeat itself - but it always has its own twists and turns - otherwise everything's predictable!

That 2002 chart is a killer - I mean I experiment with options - and got decimated in the last few weeks - if this pattern keeps on emerging ....the best strategy is to  follow this guy mark91055  ( Please take this with a big grain of salt) - and do straddles EXACTLY at the midpoint ( see that's why I think its another dangerous strategy - how do you pick that)

Its a complete nightmare - as far as the style we follow over here. Big swings back-and-forth.

We need to put together a coherent analysis.  We have a lot of good ideas - but I don't think we are there yet.

The MAIN THING: Even if you called the pattern - do the % moves on the 2002 chart - one wrong step and it would have destroyed you

See  columbia1  comment in #188.

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#195) On April 03, 2009 at 8:03 PM, binve (< 20) wrote:

Russ / anchak / GoodVibe / Everybody,

----- THIS IS FOR STUDY ONLY ------------

----- DO NOT TAKE ACTION BASED OFF THIS CHART ------------ 

Okay here is another take on Russ's chart based on todays move and a comparison with the 2002 bottom.  I was going to add a lot of this text to the chart, but StockCharts keeps telling me I have reached the limit with the number of annotations I can add. sigh. Oh well.

BASIC ASSUMPTIONS: This chart assumes that Wave {2}, {3}, etc. have not occured yet, and that we are in the final phase of Wave {1}. Refer to Prechter and Frost pp 76-82 for description of Wave Behavior. I think the psychology aspect will be very important for this Wave {2}.

1. There is nothing new to preclude Russ's original chart

2. Wave v in the expanding diagonal showed the biggest b correction. This would make sense if we are going on this assumption. We will have more volatility as the rally turns into a mania.

3. Wave c of v of 5 of (5) of {1} is also volatile. Same observation as point 2. This leg is clearly motive

4. I drew 5 of c of v of 5 of (5) of {1} as a "throw-over". This rally over the last few days is accelerating and will probably end in a manic blow-off top.

5. I drew the end of {1} happening in the next trading day as the pace is quickening. (Pure guess). The end point is drawn as 870. This is based off of a study of the daily chart. This is the top of the resistance zone that I indentified in my blog post from yesterday.

6. If we use 2002 as a prototype, Wave (A) of {2} should retrace about 50% and (B) should be relatively sharp. I believe this is due to many people believing that (A) is the new bottom and a lot of buyers jump in only to have their hopes crushed. ... :) Okay, I am editorializing.

7.  I drew wave (C) as a move down to 61.8% retracement, but then I also drew a sharp move down. 2002 saw a sharp move (a capitulation bottom), and if we break 61.8% retracement and the bears start growling, I wouldn't be surprised to see one here. I believe (if it actually comes to that) that 700 will be psychological support.

---- Okay, this is almost entirely pure conjecture. But it marries so Elliott Wave analysis with some psychological analysis, as well a small amount of historical analysis. Nearly all of the credit belongs to Russ and anchak. This is incredible. Everybody working together, with different viewpoints, trying to catch a glimpse of the larger picture. I love it!.

Obviously, this goes without saying, but I will say it anyways: This is a completely hypothetical chart. We do not know that we are still in Wave {1}. This is just an exercise to determine "if we were, how might the next few weeks play out". 

Here are the charts



Enlarge
 

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#196) On April 03, 2009 at 8:05 PM, binve (< 20) wrote:

This is hilarious!! The 3 of us posted at exactly the same time. 

Good times :)

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#197) On April 03, 2009 at 8:19 PM, Tastylunch (29.22) wrote:

I should add this before I/we get too carried away, I do not think 2002 is probably ideal time period to compare unless you are using The Nasdaq.

The depth of the decline in the 'Daq 00-02 or the Dow In 32 ( i think?) provides a better comparison imho.

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#198) On April 03, 2009 at 8:39 PM, binve (< 20) wrote:

Tasty,

Fair enough man. The reason why anchak identified 2002 is that is sported an expanding diagonal triangle like this one may be sporting. We don't know if this is the pattern we are in or not, just using it as a prototype for comparison.

Me personally I am trying to gauge what seems likely to happen based on the TA tools I am more comfortable with and with what my gut tells me. Here is what I see:

1. S&P rallys >25% from the beginning of March (short period of time) and is now in the thick of a heavy resistance zone.

2. Daily indicators are overbought

3. There has been no signifcant pullback since the rally began

4. Hourly MACD shows tons of bearish divergene. I see short term weakness in the rally the last few days, not strength.

5. Very good break of 50 day MA. But this is the first real break. When the 50 day MA is long time resistance it is statisically likely not to provide support until after a couple of repeated failures. Recently look at oil. It had to break through several times to be done with it. 2002 bear was very similiar for the markets.

6. Much too much euphoria. Housing, banks, mark to market, G20, blah, blah, blah. When just a month ago the world was ending? Come on. That is waaaayyyyy too easy if you ask me.

7. MACD on the daily chart is showng very bullish divergence. Vey constructive. But we should have a retest before the market takes off on its really big run

8. Gut reaction. This just felt way to easy. There needs to be another test. The strong willed and calm investors will jump in when everybody else is panicking during Wave 2. It just seems to me that needs to happen.

So that is why I am still short term bearish, we have had to pullback, no retest of either the technicals OR the will of the investment public.

I could be 100% wrong. I totally admit that as a possibility and I will publicly admit there if this turns out to the middle of the greatest rally of this year. 

But I don't think it is, and I feel compelled to say what I think. 

Thanks man :). I have to tell you, my convictions are really being tested by this market :)

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#199) On April 03, 2009 at 9:39 PM, columbia1 wrote:

This is a chart of the VIX from Oct. '02 till April '03, the same time frame as Binve's chart in comment # 186, it is quite a bit lower then the VIX is now, that should mean volitivity is higher now.

vix

ENLARGE

and this is the VIX now, notice the low was March 9th

vix2

ENLARGE

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#200) On April 03, 2009 at 9:51 PM, columbia1 wrote:

I tried to make the charts line-up as best as possible, the trend between the low in 2002 and the low this time look quite similar. According to the charts IF we are in the same scenario, we still have about 10 days to go before the high of about 870 and then a retest to 700 is a possibility. VERY small chance of being able to really predict that, but I have time on my hands waiting for the market to change its mood.

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#201) On April 03, 2009 at 10:40 PM, luke24 (< 20) wrote:

Hi everybody, 

Here is my interpretation under EW of the current price action of the S&P. It has been a crazy week!

Have a great weekend. 

Luke24 

 

April 3, 2009

ENLARGE

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#202) On April 03, 2009 at 10:54 PM, beyondanonda (25.10) wrote:

Binve/Russ et.al.

I would like you to strongly consider that wave 1 has already ended and, in fact so has wave 2 with the low of 3/30.  My count put us into wave 3 up now.  This of course is bullish for a run up to about 875 or so when wave 5 completes.  If we are indeed in an expanded flat correction, it is part of wave 2 which again is very bullish in that we still have much upward movement.  I have been fully invested long in selected sectors  since 3/18 (still shorting gold and silver and I think they each have BIG moves down still).  Anyway, great energy here, I have not taken time to learn to post, but I do keep counts that vary a bit from yours.

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#203) On April 04, 2009 at 12:56 AM, mkrm (< 20) wrote:

Luke-

Well done on posting the chart.  With regard to EWP:

1)  Wave 3 is never the shortest wave.

2) Wave 4 nevers enters the price territory of Wave 1.

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#204) On April 04, 2009 at 1:19 AM, herztical (27.95) wrote:

Binve

 

Wouldn't a 20%+ rally (and counting) constitute a year move rally? I know we've gotten used to the volatility, but these are yearly moves.

I must say it's much easier to be a bull right now; I got crushed on SRS lately...bought some more but only to get hammered again. Stopped out on both (and that was painful) Reminds me of going long stocks a month ago. Is there something going on w/ these ultras? On the flip side, any weakness is quickly bought up; BP was down $1 today; I bought a huge chunk  and closed down only .31...it's gotten too easy to be a bull, but again I'm done fighting it and only playing from long side (but smaller as we go higher)

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#205) On April 04, 2009 at 1:27 AM, mkrm (< 20) wrote:

Beyondanonda-

We're all struggling with your count, it looks good, but it doesn't match where we need to go.  Correcting to 1000 to 1200 just doesn't fit.  But then again, what do I know.

 Mike

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#206) On April 04, 2009 at 2:06 AM, amassafortune (29.41) wrote:

herz, Looking at the past week, the biggest pull back was from 810-785, about 3%. Trailing stops had to be pretty tight to trigger.

SRS is my last short. Along with the market strength, volume was up over 10M higher today. The writedown rule changes gave commercial RE a boost. Seeking Alpha had an article last night on the dangers of holding ETFs long-term. SRS was the worst cited with a -41.7% return vs. a 60.4% decline for the underlying index. -17% today for SRS vs. a 1% market gain should not hold. There was a little upside in the after hours. 

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#207) On April 04, 2009 at 2:27 AM, luke24 (< 20) wrote:

Thank you Mkrm,

Your are completely correct. Maybe I just spent to to much time on this chart for this week.

Luke24 

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#208) On April 04, 2009 at 11:00 AM, XMFSinchiruna (27.70) wrote:

TSIF

Your comment #190 was a treasure of wisdom and eloquence!

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#209) On April 04, 2009 at 11:04 AM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

Wow, great work everyone. I would have to agree with tasty, that the same compairison be made on the other indexs as well, Dow, COMPQ, russell2000.

one regret I had when we were trying to find the bottom around 666. I remember it was the same feeling that I I have now. I was negitive about -13-16% on SSO when 666 turned things around. I had the same feeling of just being tired of the last pushs down as I feel the same now with the last pushs up. I'm the same 13-16% negitive in SDS, but still holding true for the same reason.

I remember GV posted the dow and another index.. I forget which one, and you could see that wave 5 ended with some of the others. Maybe Dow, Russell could give us more insite to the current count and compair to the 2002. I would think to leave out Nasdaq because of the .Com bubble, but anyways that is my $0.02.

 

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#210) On April 04, 2009 at 11:43 AM, binve (< 20) wrote:

Russ, anchak, and everyone.

I am in the middle of a historical survey / charting exercise of the last 4 bears. I will be posting in just a little while. I think this will be educational and perhaps a little surprising.

 

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#211) On April 04, 2009 at 12:00 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

DOW 10,000  

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#212) On April 04, 2009 at 12:01 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

Russell 2000, Nasdaq Composite, NDX 100 

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#213) On April 04, 2009 at 12:03 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

#190 TSIF - I can't agree more. You can come in every blog I post and mention that post or write it in your own way. Only thing I ask you is that you should mention, as you did in #190, it's small percent of the readers not the majority. Unfortunately you failed to do this in all your posts, which was something that rattled me from a person I think of as smart, eloquent, and caring. Those people who come and make generalizations that the majority of us are what they accuse us to be are not contributing any value but are destructive force to what we are trying to do here and it tell us about the nature and intent of the poster. Believe me when I said, "WE". This is what we are after. WE are trying to do something here and a voice like you who save the stray and misguided person and bring them back to our goal and staying within our clearly outlined guidelines is appreciated. If after all these efforts from us, they keep doing it, I guess they will find a way or another to waste their money and you and us should not be blamed. It's their nature. After all  a fool and his/her money is one big party.

I hope this will be my last time to go into this again with you cause this is the third time to talk about the same point and it's not healthy to beat a dead horse. Wine is not needed as well. Doing bottles and models is not for me anymore. For the rent, your kind as well as tough, clear, and well-directed words are your only dues. Thanks!

#193 Tasty - The person I wish him to be commenting more in this blog! Sigh - Big one! I am not sure if you find little value or more DANGER in this blog or I am just over thinking. ;) When we were few you was a major contributor, but then come the large numbers and you just decided to go away. As I told you before, we don't need TA guys, we want empirical (I know you like it this way) and fundamental guys to add to the mix. Bring what you think of value and you will find someone who will listen. I will be first. 

For all the TA comment - I am reading your comments and I will tell you where my thinking is. I am trying to stay as neutral as I can even while I have open positions that are biased towards one direction (A heavy task).

I'll cover the long picture that was sparked by anchak. While you are at comparing past with the present, which is perfectly legit, I want you to remember first that history doesn't repeat itself but it does rhyme. Second, use prophet.net java chart to go back in the DOW to see the parallel form between the DJIA in 1938 ($INDU) and the S&P 500 ($SPX) since 2007 until now. You can detach the Java chart to enlarge. This comparison has been going around for sometimes in the underworld of chartists as well as another one from the 1970s. You will be floored! Enjoy it.

GoodVibe

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#214) On April 04, 2009 at 12:09 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

There's no question we're due for a couple of down sessions after the last 4 up but there doesn't seem to be a catalyst for a retest at this point.

Everyone knows Earns are going to be bad but a bottom was announced for Real Estate etc...

We're now at 2002-2003 bottom levels. 

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#215) On April 04, 2009 at 12:25 PM, beyondanonda (25.10) wrote:

MKRM

I certainly could explain better with a chart..gotta get on that.  I dont know if you meant that correcting to 1000 or 1200 was not likely (because of course it is since we are looking to retrace Primary wave 1 which ended early march by 1/3 to 2/3).   The count that currently makes the most sense to me is that since we started Primary wave 2 in early March we have completed wave 1 up on about the 3/24, completed wave 2 down on about March 30, yes a very shallow 2 but that could mean very strong bull for short term and now we are in wave 1  of 3 (up).  Eventually, probably at least a couple of months wave 5 will complete Primary 2 up beyond 1100.  Of course then we finish with our bear market rally.  Bottom line is I know we are in Primary 2 up and should expect it to end well above 1000.  Just my take.

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#216) On April 04, 2009 at 12:30 PM, binve (< 20) wrote:

Goodvibe,

Don't worry, I have a chart and count of the 1929 crash too :). I am definitely looking big picture here :)

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#217) On April 04, 2009 at 12:44 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

"...use prophet.net java chart to go back in the DOW to see the parallel form between the DJIA in 1938 ($INDU) and the S&P 500 ($SPX) since 2007 until now."

I'd really like to see the comparison but for the life of me I can't find a way to get the java chart to use a custom 1938 date range.

GV, I'll keep trying but if you get a chance could you point me in the right direction? 

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#218) On April 04, 2009 at 1:00 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

Inflation adjusted DJIA 1925-present 

http://www.dogsofthedow.com/dow1925cpilog.htm

 

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#219) On April 04, 2009 at 1:18 PM, binve (< 20) wrote:

GoodVibe, anchak, Russ, and Everyone

-------- NOTICE: THIS IS FOR STUDY PURPOSES ONLY ----------

This is a study of several of the last major bear market bottoms. First set of charts shows the historical data available in StockCharts, and so the first set of bottoms are 1980-1983, 1987-1988, and 2000-2003.

Historical Context



Enlarge

1980-1983 Bear



Enlarge

1987-1988 Bear



Enlarge

2000-2003 Bear 



Enlarge

Okay, so here are some observations on the last 3 bear markets.

1. All took place within the context of a very obvious overall larger bear market 

2. All these markets tend to be very corrective in nature. As such they have a very pronounced A-B-C corrective structure with a lot of sideways churning price action

So how does that compare to what we have currently?



Enlarge

Very interesting. This bear does not have a corrective feel at all. It is HIGHLY impulsive in nature (1-2-3-4-5). Is there a historical precedent for this type of bear market? You bet there is:



Enlarge

Personally, I have been do a lot of reasearch about this the last 6 months. And I have seen this parallel unfolding for awhile. Some of my previous comments in GV blogs now make more sense (I am bullish on equities in general when we get down to a broad market PE of 6). 

I have also been reading about another parallel. The 1901 stock panic is similar in structure (in fact it is more similar in some ways than 1929). I don't have data I can share and I couldn't find a public chart to upload. 

But for what its worth, I think 1929 is a good parallel.

So what are my thoughts on this market action? Again these are just my thoughts. I am simply sharing them for the sake of discussion. This is not investing advice and I am not telling anybody what to do with their money. Only advising caution and protection :)

Like GV says above, history does not repeat itself but it does rhyme. My take is that it is like a chord of music. Waves of bears are individual notes and they combine in sequence to form a chord. 

It seems to me based on the sharpness of the drop, this market chord sounds like a combination of 1929 and 1988 (so that is something like an A-7th minor I believe ... :) )

1. I think the move off the bottom at 666 has been very sharp. Very similar to 1988. And what goes down fast and rises up fast ususally has a pretty severe retest. 1929 wasn't quite that way. But it obviously had a bigger "retest" in 1930-1933.

2. Also look at the indicators (TRIX and RSI in these cases). They all show similar patterns, and there is usually a retest after the bottom. The setup is bullish, but it has to prove itself by not going below in price or inidicator trends.

In short, I believe we are going to have a retest. The jury is obviously still out on that, and there is no telling at this point where we are in the wave count. But I am sticking by my statements above in comment #198.

So that is my opinion and my take on the situation. Everyone, please take a look and let the discussion begin!

 

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#220) On April 04, 2009 at 1:37 PM, DanDarby (< 20) wrote:

Hi everyone, great work you all are doing.

This is where I think we are right now. I have a 5 min chart that looks like we might be going up monday / tuesday if this count works out.

I see two scenarios, one is bullish the other bearish.

Here is the 5 min chart of the past couple days.

Enlarge

1. Bullish - If we go up strong like a goldrush (as GV said a wave 3 often looks like) on Monday or Tuesday, we are in wave 3 going up.

2. Bearish - If we go up to around 850 on Monday, then maybe 850-870 on tuesday complete the current count (the count over the past couple of days) and we have also completed 1, then start 2 back to the 770-750 range.

Here is the bearish chart:

Enlarge

What do you all think of this? I see similar counts to the bearish one from Russ and others.

Well I'm off to work, those dishes won't wash themselves.

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#221) On April 04, 2009 at 1:55 PM, DanDarby (< 20) wrote:

whoops, Ignore that magenta "2?" in the stochastics in that 5 min chart.

ok off to work.

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#222) On April 04, 2009 at 2:07 PM, binve (< 20) wrote:

DanDarby, Nice charts man. I agree, those are the two most likely general trends

Everybody,

Here is another take on the current counts and the daily chart. 1929 isn't an exact parallel, since our crash has taken longer to unfold (in 1929, by this time the market was already in the middle of its upward correction). We took another leg down in Feb/March so that throws a lot of the seasonal cycles off.

This is why we can't use 1929 as a 1 for 1 prototype.

But the is lag and churn in Wave {4} has set up a possible reverse head and shoulder (which would be VERY bullish). However none of the pullbacks yet would serve as a right shoulder.



Enlarge

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#223) On April 04, 2009 at 2:36 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Everybody - You've been putting a lot of good stuff out there in the last two blogs and we should bring them upfront and together in one blog. I opened a chart lab blog. I'll ask you all to stop posting here and sorry if I'll ask you to posy your final charts and analysis one more time there so we can get things together in one place. Also we will use Mary's new lounge as the new lounge. Thanks.

llcx - Did you get it? use ALL data from the drop down menu.

    .................... Notice ................

Please, don't add any comments after this one. This post is closed. See you there either in the lounge or the chart lab. Thanks

GoodVibe

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#224) On April 04, 2009 at 3:10 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

Great chats and logic binve take a look at http://www.mrforex.org/2008/10/23/stock-charts-djia-sp-500/ for some interesting overlays.

I really like the chart logic but the markets have trends. 4 days up is typically followed by 1-2 days down. This could be an exception though its unlikely.

The end of the month and first few days following are typically up trends due to 401k triggers and rebalancing. Under the current circumstances, its really great to see some normal back and we might see some major interest on Monday from everyone who has been sitting on the sidelines and doesn't want to miss the "rally".

Panic selling is now dead and gone unless something earth shattering occurs and the bottoms have already been announced for Real Estate and Steel etc.

The retest is months away and we are about to see the uptrend of the 150 MA in the next 2-3 weeks which will formally define a bottom.

IMHO, the projections you're showing beyond the quantified chart data exaggerate downturns and are misleading in the face of the market conditions and logical short term trends.

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#225) On April 04, 2009 at 3:13 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

Sorry GV -- you must have posted the close while I was writing the comment.

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#226) On April 04, 2009 at 5:25 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:


   .................... Notice ................

Please, don't add any comments after this one. This post is closed. See you there either in the lounge or the chart lab. 

 I opened a chart lab blog. I'll ask you all to stop posting here and sorry if I'll ask you to post your final charts and analysis one more time there so we can get things together in one place. Also we will use Mary's new lounge as the new lounge. Thanks!

GoodVibe

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