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GoodVibe’s Community: The Oracle of Delphi

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March 03, 2009 – Comments (231)

Today, I enjoyed Aerius blog post titled: "open minded". I enjoyed reading it, watching it, and commenting on it. Aerius had a comment about "Socrates and the Oracle of Delphi". I copied and pasted it from here. It's just a joy to read. It came to answer my thoughts I reflected in here. It was good to remember and refresh my resolution to stay the course that I charted for myself here in Caps and in life. I hope you will find somthing in it as well. If not, the updated charts will follow soon. :)

Here's Socrates speaks;

Now, gentlemen, please do not interrupt me if I seem to be making an extravagant claim; for what I am going to tell you is not my own opinion. I will refer you to a witness who is worthy of credit; that witness shall be the God of Delphi--he will tell you about my wisdom, if I have any, and of what sort it is.

You know Chaerephon, of course. He was a friend of mine from boyhood, and also a good democrat who played his part with the rest of you in the recent expulsion and restoration. And you know what he was like; how enthusiastic he was over anything that he had once undertaken. Well one day he went to Delphi and boldly asked the oracle to tell him whether anyone was wiser than myself and the Pythian prophetess answered, that there was no man wiser. Chaerephon is dead himself; but his brother, who is in court, will confirm the truth of what I am saying. Why do I mention this? Because I am going to explain to you why I have such an evil name. When I heard the answer, I said to myself, What can the god mean? and what is the interpretation of his riddle? for I know that I have no wisdom, small or great. What then can he mean when he says that I am the wisest of men? And yet he is a god, and cannot lie; that would be against his nature. After long consideration, I thought of a method of trying the question. I reflected that if I could only find a man wiser than myself, then I might go to the god with a refutation in my hand. I should say to him, 'Here is a man who is wiser than I am; but you said that I was the wisest.'

Accordingly I went to one who had the reputation of wisdom, and observed him--his name I need not mention; he was a politician whom I selected for examination--and the result was as follows: When I began to talk with him, I could not help thinking that he was not really wise, although he was thought wise by many, and still wiser by himself; and thereupon I tried to explain to him that he thought himself wise, but was not really wise; and the consequence was that he hated me, and his enmity was shared by several who were present and heard me. So I left him, saying to myself, as I went away: Well, although I do not suppose that either of us knows anything really beautiful and good, I am better off than he is,--for he knows nothing, and thinks that he knows; I neither know nor think that I know. In this latter particular, then, I seem to have slightly the advantage of him. Then I went to another who had still higher pretensions to wisdom, and my conclusion was exactly the same. Whereupon I made another enemy of him, and of many others besides him.

Then I went to one man after another, being not unconscious of the enmity which I provoked, and I lamented and feared this: but necessity was laid upon me,--the word of God, I thought, ought to be considered first. And I said to myself, Go I must to all who appear to know, and find out the meaning of the oracle. And I swear to you, Athenians, --for I must tell you the truth--the result of my mission was just this: I found that the men most in repute were all but the most foolish; and that others less esteemed were really wiser and better. I will tell you the tale of my wanderings and of the 'Herculean' labours, as I may call them, which I endured only to find at last the oracle irrefutable. After the politicians, I went to the poets; tragic, dithyrambic, and all sorts. And there, I said to myself, you will be instantly detected; now you will find out that you are more ignorant than they are. Accordingly, I took them some of the most elaborate passages in their own writings, and asked what was the meaning of them--thinking that they would teach me something. Will you believe me? I am almost ashamed to confess the truth, but I must say that there is hardly a person present who would not have talked better about their poetry than they did themselves. Then I knew that not by wisdom do poets write poetry, but by a sort of genius and inspiration; they are like diviners or soothsayers who also say many fine things, but do not understand the meaning of them. The poets appeared to me to be much in the same case; and I further observed that upon the strength of their poetry they believed themselves to be the wisest of men in other things in which they were not wise.

So I departed, conceiving myself to be superior to them for the same reason that I was superior to the politicians.

At last I went to the artisans. I was conscious that I knew nothing at all, as I may say, and I was sure that they knew many fine things; and here I was not mistaken, for they did know many things of which I was ignorant, and in this they certainly were wiser than I was. But I observed that even the good artisans fell into the same error as the poets;--because they were good workmen they thought that they also knew all sorts of high matters, and this defect in them overshadowed their wisdom; and therefore I asked myself on behalf of the oracle, whether I would like to be as I was, neither having their knowledge nor their ignorance, or like them in both; and I made answer to myself and to the oracle that I was better off as I was.

The effect of these investigations of mine, gentlemen, has been to arouse against me a great deal of hostility, hostility of a particularly bitter and persistent kind, which has resulted in various malicious suggestions, including the description of me as a professor of wisdom. This is due to the fact that whenever I succeed in disproving another person’s claim to wisdom in a given subject, the bystanders assume that I know everything about that subject myself. But the truth o men of Athens is this: that real wisdom is the property of God, and this oracle is his way of telling us that human wisdom has little or no value. It seems to me that he is not referring literally to Socrates, but has merely taken my name as an example, as he would say to us “The wisest of you men is he who has realized, like Socrates, that in respect of wisdom he is really worthless.”

................

I hope you enjoyed it. I did. Thanks Aerius! I wish you can consider yourself a friend of ours and a V.I.P in our community.

We will use this post to extend today's post where we charted the raging oceans, had a fight with the bears while singing, chatting, and helping each others protect our dough that we put today and yesterday on the front lines. The results of our battle were postponed until tomorrow. When we win will cheer and if the gods of the market is not looking upon us with kindness tomorrow, at least we will never say; "If we just tried."

Come join us! Here, I update my charts during the day, give market update, and we can also comment, ask questions, and have some fun to ease the day and chat with friends. Please read the original post and the previous comments and updates here here, and here to know the whole story

       ....................      Believe but question. Trust but verify.    ..................

.As it is always the case - Please, refrain from asking me a tailored or personalized trading or investing strategy. This is not my role here. Make your homework; consult with your broker or with your investing advisor before making any decisions. All the work I present here is for educational reasons and should not be constituted as an advice to buy or sell anything. I share what I’m doing, when I'm doing it and how I'm doing it with hopes that sharing the process adds to you

"The fool who knows of his ignorance, indeed, through that very consideration becomes a wise man. But that conceited fool who considers himself learned is, in fact, called a fool."

                                                                                       The Buddha                 

What am I doing now?

                     Getting busy living instead of getting busy dying!

Let's go! - who is first? 

GoodVibe

.

231 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On March 03, 2009 at 8:49 PM, Kmunk (96.28) wrote:

"The last thing I want to do is be negative, but seriously a support level from 10 years ago. No way. I don't know where support exists, but it will not be caused by an event over a decade ago.'"

I am a bit lost fladoy, what support lines are there below other then ones from over 10 years ago if we are trading at 1996 prices? Last time S&P saw 700 was the fall of 1996 before it broke out and never looked back. Can't believe I just typed that, 12 years gone!

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#2) On March 03, 2009 at 9:08 PM, Option1307 (29.81) wrote:

Powerful passage, and one that tends to get lost in the craziness of life. Thanks for the reminder.

Rec for the opening thoughts at the very least...

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#3) On March 03, 2009 at 9:16 PM, bootz27 (66.46) wrote:

That is one of my favorite movies.

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#4) On March 03, 2009 at 9:21 PM, goldminingXpert (29.57) wrote:

"Yes! Yes! Yes! Yes!
                             YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS!!!!
                               All hails the king... "Father Time",
                         Heaven save the queen.... "Mother nature"
                                                  ......... and
                                        Blessed nature's laws!

                                            We have a bottom"

 

That's you from earlier in the day.

Then later: Now I start to get the feelings that you [GoldminingXpert] started to get emotinally attached to this number [660] without a sensible reason. Not even once you told us why this number is so unique for a bottom? Just in the spirit of sharing, can you tell us why this number (660) makes sense to you than what we have right now?

Excuse me if this sounds rude, but I think you are the one that is emotinally (and monetarily) attached to a thesis. I've been flat since I got stopped out of a long at the open yesterday so it doesn't make a lick of difference to me if I miss the long here or not. However you very emphatically called the bottom as I quoted above and now the futures indicate you may be wrong... of course we'll see what happens overnight, but what you've got up in terms of charting is in serious doubt as the futures suggest we will open at a point that violates your count.

All that said (and please take that as a comment and not a criticism), why 660 area?

650-660 is on your chart, take a gander back at 1996. We spent most of Spring-Summer '96 in that price range. I also have a theory (based on some prop research) that the next low will be equally far down as the last one. In October we hit 837, in November we hit 739 (This is off futures rather than SPX cash). I was last bullish when I thought 739 was going to hold... once that busted, the next logical target for me to look at was the next interval of the same length down from there which is either 98 points linearly (641) or 11.7% down if you wish to calculate it that way. 11.7% further down (837 to 739 is 11.7%) from 739 is 652. Ta-da. I've got chart support at 650-660ish, I've also got my theory that says the low is near either 641 or 652. If we get close enough to the range of support (641-660), I'll start loading as I don't know how sensitive my indicator is yet.

We also got a 7.5% washout in the S&P to end the crash in October (we went lower the next day but closed spinning then cranked up 900 dow points the next day, remember that?) a 7.5% washout from our close today takes us to roughly 643. Hmm. Right inside my range again. I got nothing in particular at 660, but the range of 640 to 660, if achieved tomorrow would allow us a capitulation plunge into chart support that would rhyme with the past crashes of this bear market. Now that the old low got busted in the futures, we have to assume we're going lower, and if we go lower in a hurry, 640-660 should be the next potential reversal point. However, we if do a slow bleed down to 650ish, we won't hold it as there is still no capitulation. We need the VIX to soar before we can call this puppy over. I think the VIX will finally pull an SRS-like moonshot tomorrow and we can finally bring out the bullish party hats.

That's my 2 cents--though it's worth less than that with the low copper prices nowadays. Anyway, get a 2nd (and hopefully better) opinion before trading on anything I say.

 

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#5) On March 03, 2009 at 9:41 PM, columbia1 wrote:

Futures are now positive!!!!! China is up!!!

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#6) On March 03, 2009 at 9:49 PM, beyondanonda (26.40) wrote:

This story, and this community remind me very much of things that Malcom Forbes spoke of ("cease to dream and you cease to live")

On the learning process:  The purpose of education is to replace an empty mind with an open one.

 On Diversity: the art of thinking independently together.

On understanding our own limitations:  What's an expert? I read somewhere, that the more a man knows, the more he knows, he doesn't know. So I suppose one definition of an expert would be someone who doesn't admit out loud that he knows enough about a subject to know he doesn't really know how much.

And finally his personal epitaph "While alive, he lived"

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#7) On March 03, 2009 at 9:51 PM, goldminingXpert (29.57) wrote:

That's cause we plummeted into the lockup. If the market opened here, SPX would still be down three.

At 4ET, futs were at 695.25 and now we're at 692.25. If we open here, the SPX opens half a point above it's low--not exactly a strong statement that the low will hold.

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#8) On March 03, 2009 at 9:52 PM, Ecomike (< 20) wrote:

One thing I have noticed is that some stocks were still bottoming today, while some bottomed yesterday, and others on Friday last week and those were slowing rising today. I think there has been a rotation of bottoming through stock sectors that finally starting winding down, especially banking, energy, transportation anf insurance (ones that I follow). I saw very few new 52 week bottoms today except for insurance, at least in the list I follow. Also the stocks that bottomed last friday had noticably lower volume today, and some were up today. This looks like a slow steady rally process that will take its time on the way up in the early stages until some faith for a bottom is restored.

 HIG took another dump afterhours, down another 10%. Wish I had waited to buy it now. Oh well, spilt milk. Other than a missed opportunity on my part, I don't put a lot of faith in afterhour trade numbers. They have shown me how far the spread is between buyers and sellers. The spead is huge! The volume after hours is the key! Good news is some stocks like Citi bottomed, and started back up a bit yesterday, and up a little more today. Energy bottomed and bounced today. 

 Regarding the comment earlier about market data being too old to be a real resistance level after 13 years, lots of investors look to very old data as and for support or resistance values in times like these, like 7000, 8000, they are physchological support levels. They are real to oldtimers, and to those who know we are part of the market physichology.

 GMX,

Keep in mind the SPX now is not what it was then, the companies have changed (severally recently) possibly screwing your real support number. I rember wondering if they wern't trying to rig the system in the process.

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#9) On March 03, 2009 at 9:59 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

GMX -

Hey brother! Why you rub salt on my not yet to be a wound? :)

Okay, let me try to mend the fence because I seemed to ruffle some of your feathers here. When I asked you to clarify, I wasn't questioning your contribution or the sincerity behind it. All I wanted is more detail of how you arrived at it before consistently repeating it on the board. I told you that a lot of people, including myself, listen to you. Your words can weigh on their decisions. If they decided to take a decision based on your call, I would like it to be an informed and educated one and not an emotional one (at least on their part). Your timing was not the best when you came with your posts that contained the number and didn't do well to their resolve and level of trust regarding to their decisions and I felt it in the air. Number of your readers are new to trading and can easily get confused with many numbers thrown at them and that might effect the soundness of their decisions. Once you inform them as you did now, they will not regret making such decisions based on your call even if you make the wrong call.

Capish?

That's what I was looking for. For the first part of your response, that was a cry of joy after some facts presented themselves and I was warranted to celebrate them although I should hold it until as I said 715 was a must. Sometimes right, sometimes early, but always honest.  I hope now that we cleared the water and ready for the sail from wherever port we start. As I wished you yestrday, I hope you're right even if this is gonna be on my expense so we can join together to our promised land of profits.

Cheer on brother and bring more of your 2 golden cents that you're cashing from Mr. Goldie.

GoodVibe

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#10) On March 03, 2009 at 10:04 PM, goldminingXpert (29.57) wrote:

As I wished you yestrday, I hope you're right even if this is gonna be on my expense so we can join together to our promised land of profits.

I don't want this to be your expense, but I just don't see the bull case until we go lower. It all comes down to where we open--we're right at the edge of opening at a new low or holding it with the futs where they are now.

No worries, I should have provided more detail before, you were cool in asking for it. Anyway, my voodoo says 640-660, but who knows. Time will tell.

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#11) On March 03, 2009 at 10:06 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

GMX - Give me a slack here for a point or two. I am not saying that it's not something of concern but we're not looking here for perfection (although I aimed for it). And we didn't violate any of my numbers so far for the downside and my charts are intact.

We also know that the ceiling is still higher than the floor. You believe not. I do and I hope many others do the same. Let's wait for tomorrow and see what happens. It will be a beautiful day no matter what come.

It's the journey my brother and nothing but the journey. We will get what we're after. No question asked!

GoodVibe

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#12) On March 03, 2009 at 10:21 PM, nuf2bdangrus (< 20) wrote:

Goodvibe.  You're a better trader than me.  Worse, I often forget to close picks and pans on CAPS and it hurts my score.  I think we are oversold, but I am still hedged.

The website that has called this spot on is Minyanville, Todd Harrison, and he is still holding for 600 S&P, but is also quite cognizant of upside surprises orchestrated by the Fed, Mark 2 market being the most possible.  So I accumulate on the way down, trying to stay hedged.  Worked great in Jan, lousy in Feb, where I lost all I made.

 

Goldminingxpert-I tend to agree with yoiu, and I think 80+ VIX is a requirement.

 

I made a little coin on SRS, but it keeps stopping me out, thus its a poor hedge.  Buy the correction, not the breakout they say.  But that's a party I think I'm late to.  Bought an April 100 put on the SKF today for 4 bucks.  Let's see how I do.

 

Goodvibe, I'be been so burned listing to the TV bulls that convinced me I'm wrong, and burned by Cramer and Bernake, that I've lost all trust in anything, thus I'd like the market to go lower, even if that means my portfolio shrinks, because it puts less room for future downside risk where I can add to my positions. Too scared to take a large stake long or short with any conviction.

 

Bottoming processes should take months, and we are at risk of violating the one that's forming.  Rally still overdue.  What would I know?  Mys core has been below 20 ever since I shorted FSLR and got squeezed, and went long oil in September.  Seems like light years ago.

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#13) On March 03, 2009 at 10:22 PM, Mary953 (75.54) wrote:

Hi guys,

I'm back, with no stitches allowed.  (Not allowed for animal type wounds)  I hate to say this but I am still as lost as I was right at the end there just before life went crazy in my immediate vicinity. 

GoodVibe, friend, I know a lot better about how to find a bit of traveling music than I did about what exactly was going on in that last hour or so. 

GMX, you are also a dear friend, I hope, and always a respected favorite, but I have gotten very confused as you and GV debate.  I do not have the skills that Russ has learned nor have I reached this level of comprehension that so many others are flying at. 

My hand is still up gentlemen, here at the back of the class with a puzzled frown.  Where to from here and why please?

Good Night all,

Mary

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#14) On March 03, 2009 at 10:23 PM, herztical (28.15) wrote:

I personally have not seen those type of inflows today like we had in Sep-Oct; this is on a personal and micro level, but it is a decent gage for me in terms "insider" investor sentiment.  To put that in $$ volume (for everyone else) it's about 5 million IRA inflow (out of stocks/mutual funds) for Oct-Nov vs. about 500k IRA inflow for Feb-Mar...this could change, but I just don't see the panic anymore on a personal level and this is illustrated in Gold and the VIX on a macro level.  Take that for what it's worth, but I think much of the selling is done from the ordinary investor. 

Here's a interesting TA link from fast money if you missed it earlier on CNBC:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/29495121

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#15) On March 03, 2009 at 10:29 PM, goldminingXpert (29.57) wrote:

GMX, you are also a dear friend, I hope, and always a respected favorite, but I have gotten very confused as you and GV debate.  I do not have the skills that Russ has learned nor have I reached this level of comprehension that so many others are flying at. 

My hand is still up gentlemen, here at the back of the class with a puzzled frown.  Where to from here and why please?

GV thinks we are right at the bottom. I think we drop 5 to 7% more first, and then we go up. We should (hopefully) know tomorrow which way it ends up turning out.

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#16) On March 03, 2009 at 10:31 PM, goldminingXpert (29.57) wrote:

Give me a slack here for a point or two. I am not saying that it's not something of concern but we're not looking here for perfection (although I aimed for it). And we didn't violate any of my numbers so far for the downside and my charts are intact.

Alright. I draw my charts off futures--so to me--what happened in the 5 o'clock hour is a violation, but since you draw your charts off cash and not futures, your chart still works for you. Well, we wouldn't have a market without taking having different opinions occasionally. If we all wanted to buy at the same time, there'd be no sellers. Don't worry Mary, the main point is that the bottom (and not THE BOTTOM, just a bottom) is near. I'm just waiting for Mr. Market to mark it (sorry) down another 5% before I go shopping.

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#17) On March 03, 2009 at 10:39 PM, musicmaniac599 (< 20) wrote:

Nobody knows where the market is heading. Especially at these levels. I would say there is a good 50% chance for a bounce play coming very shortly. However, I think I am going to sit this one out. Why? Well because the market is not clear to me at the moment. However, I beleive things will become a little clearer in the short term. If the market continues to plumet and we break the resistance I'll let stocks fall and get in at a better bargin price. On the contrary if we get a bounce Then It is definatly time to short. There is no way a bull rally is going to hold for more than a week at most. Therfore no matter what happens I will be able to get a better sense of the market in a few days. Do you guys no agree?

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#18) On March 03, 2009 at 10:45 PM, goldminingXpert (29.57) wrote:

musicmaniac

Most of the people on this thread are already very long (including several people who went "all-in" long) for a bounce. I think they're early, I will be deploying a small chunk of my risk capital long at S&P 660. However, there is a high enough chanceof the market plummeting straight into the mid-500's that one should not heavily play this bounce. Thus your position (sitting on your hands) is totally valid. If the S&P gets back up to 800, it's an excellent short--you are correct in that a bull run will be short-lived if it starts from this level. If the bull run starts from, say, 570, it could grind for a few months to try to get back up to, say, 695. ;)

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#19) On March 03, 2009 at 10:47 PM, Xucolat (52.34) wrote:

Goodvibe,

A great post on Socrates. As always before, I still enjoy it.

With appreciation. 

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#20) On March 03, 2009 at 10:51 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Mary - I think GMX got you before me. I hope this cleared the view for you. I'll work a chart or two and come to post them here. Did you find your cat?

beyond # 6 - Well said! You're the best.

GMX - Stole this clip it from EDI and Tasty where they were hitting on eacother in a dark room. Between me and you...

GoodVibe

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#21) On March 03, 2009 at 11:03 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

570!!!!! You're totally out of whack on this one! How in heaven you came up with this number? 130 points from the S&P!? 20% after 50% already?! Where they're gonna come from? The banks are selling for something to nothing. 4 stocks are sub $5 in the DOW and one is $6.88! This is so much at this point. The system still here GMX and such a decline is too much to call for.

Okay! Now this is a nice follow up to my Vibe-tube above to balance my affection. :) I am gonna go to do my work and will be back ASAP.

GoodVibe

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#22) On March 03, 2009 at 11:09 PM, goldminingXpert (29.57) wrote:

well, until I see the VIX spike, anything is possible. I can't rule out a 1987 style 1-day boom. I'm not saying ~570 is likely (5% odds maybe of it happening on this leg down), but you can't honestly tell me its impossible.

If I had to place odds, I'd say...

Low is already in: 20%

Low is between 660-692: 20%

Low is between 640-660: 35%

Low is between 600-640: 15%

Low is under 600: 10%

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#23) On March 03, 2009 at 11:09 PM, Kmunk (96.28) wrote:

Lol, and we are all worried about 700 versus 660....

The real battle, yet to be waged but probably will be in the future, is 700 versus 450. 575 might hold, but it is really a very small blip on the radar.

I got dibs on 450. I will re-mortgage the house, sell the car, perhaps sell my gold and silver (!), start panning on the corner for investment money, and go long.

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#24) On March 03, 2009 at 11:15 PM, goldminingXpert (29.57) wrote:

Kmunk, 660 ain't THE BOTTOM either. I'm just looking for the point from which we get a tradable bounce. I'd be surprised if THE BOTTOM end of the bear market and all that jazz is anywhere north of 500 by now. Our best hope is Obama resigning and somebody who knows the meaning of the words "Debt", "Budget", and "Competence" taking over. Obama called bottom on the market today--which in and of itself is proof we're going much lower. But there will be a bounce first.

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#25) On March 03, 2009 at 11:25 PM, edbbear (< 20) wrote:

We still don't have any idea how bad the economy is going to get.  Unemployment is still rising.  I'm all for a trade but the bottom line is that if profits for the S & P are 40 this year, we can go below 500.  I'd be shocked if we went straight there, but anything is possible with this market and this administration. 

Personally i'm all cash looking to deploy some into oil stocks if there is a dip.  I'm also keeping an eye on GLD and GDX if they dip a little further.  Best of luck to everyone. 

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#26) On March 03, 2009 at 11:29 PM, Kmunk (96.28) wrote:

Hey, I completly agree GMX. I think you are right, a technical bounce is coming soon. I also agree with your entry, and I will be placing some tight stopped leveraged longs there, only to close them out later for lower lows.

The only exhibit I have to back up my thoughts, and they are fundemental, not TA, is S&P earnings:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Financials-lead-way-SP-heads/story.aspx?guid=%7BA077A0AC%2D3404%2D42D2%2D843E%2D19706D565667%7D

Take a gander at this GV, and tell me how soon you expect blue chip, not growth stocks, to make it back to anything resembling what we have had over the last few years:

 http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_elFdQk0Twr4/SZXvHdtN4jI/AAAAAAAAAYU/UiFoPqz3Pe0/s1600-h/hist-PEs-wSPX.PNG

Take a look at the last recession. See the bottom and how far down it was, see the rebound, see how long it took to get back to normal, wonder where earnings are this quarter. Perhaps we are all now technical traders that do not care about things like earnings and dividends over cold hard cash earning an interest in the bank.... But I think not.

Not trying to crimp your style GV, but TA breaks down at extremes. We are in one.

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#27) On March 03, 2009 at 11:33 PM, goldminingXpert (29.57) wrote:

Kmunk, the good thing about Elliot Wave is that there are usually multiple possibilities. In this case, GV has said he has one chart that shows us going far lower. Over time, his two bullish scenarios will disappear off the chart and he will discover, through technicals what fundamental bears have been saying all along. EW works much better in hindsight than as a forward indicator, though it works well enough for some people to consistently make coin off it. (I make most of my money off my fundamental analysis and use simple technicals like volume, stochs, and support/resistance to aid my entries into fundamental positions). however, I cannot resist the allure of short-term trading as well. Short-term, we get a bounce, long term: hello lucifer.

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#28) On March 03, 2009 at 11:51 PM, Kmunk (96.28) wrote:

Lol, I agree again GMX. I started out using TA a long, long time ago. Read Magee's book and others, thought I was the sh#t!

Works great for small trends, entries and exits. Works horrible when the real chips are on the table. Works terrible when the fundamantals say something different. At extremes TA always breaks down.

Today I use only fundamental for trends spanning years to decades, those things that will break down TA. I use MACD, trend lines, RSI, some moving averages, support/resistance, Fibbo points, stochs, to find entries and exits to fit the rest. Keep it simple. Elliot wave I have never really got into, seems to me you can make a chart fit just about anything you can imagine depending on where you draw the points.

In the end, the chart TA is always correct since you can bend it the way you want. Going forward into the future... not so easy.

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#29) On March 03, 2009 at 11:54 PM, Ecomike (< 20) wrote:

GMX,

 Many did not think Obama could win the election. They were wrong too! LOL.

 But lets keep it nice and keep politics and relgion out of GV's blog, it will just spoil the mood here.

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#30) On March 04, 2009 at 12:05 AM, Kmunk (96.28) wrote:

There was a wise man on one of the investing message boards I was following back in 2003. An MSN board for the now defunct WCOM. His monikor was CaliforniaSailor.

He was buying when the rest of us were selling. "Odd" things like yahoo and GE. Either I or somebody asked him, "Cali, why are you buying all this stuff when surely the markets are heading lower?"

All he said was "Easy, the banks, particularly the large banks, are not going under. This is a recession which we will recover from."

That guy made a crap load when the rest of us were shivering in our boots.

I wonder what wisdom he would have to impart now.

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#31) On March 04, 2009 at 12:21 AM, herztical (28.15) wrote:

I think he would say:

"Easy, the banks, particularly the large banks, are not going under. This is a recession which we will recover from."

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#32) On March 04, 2009 at 12:30 AM, Kmunk (96.28) wrote:

Lol herztical. If you have not noticed, the American tax payer now owns a third of citibank that is trading near penny status. B of A is now below 5 a share and facing the same fate. Wamu has gone under. The Fed is now buying into credit card, car, and student loan debt BESIDES mortgage debt.

Our largest banks, except JPM's slimey butt, have literally gone under along with Fannie and Freddie. They are walking dead subsidized by the tax payer. Think that is sustainable? That the issuer of the dollar can also be the loaner of the dollar? Think we are going to rally off this mess? Think we can shuffle this under the rug?

Welcome Comrade to the new USSA. Apply here for your new USSA home loan, credit card, car loan, and student loans.

 

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#33) On March 04, 2009 at 12:47 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Everything I said will happen, happened by yesterday's close. Check for yourself the before charts and here are some of today's live charts that you can update from your computer:

here here here here! Perfect picture and on the spot in all of them! I'll do the 1-minute chart tomorrow by the opening and follow with the counting. Let's see what tomorrow might bring.

Have a good night and profitable tomorrow. 

GoodVibe

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#34) On March 04, 2009 at 12:50 AM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

Hello all,

I’m typing this in word, so my spelling is not as atrocious as usual. (IT guys can’t spell by default)..lol

 

I think I’ve been pegged as the biggest believer of TA (especially Elliot) and for good reason. I’ve jumped in head first and still learning at ton on a daily basis. Confirmation of a bottom of wave {iii} on the yearly/monthly chart is a very big deal. On the scope of the current losses establishing this point (wave {iii} confirmed) is huge. We want to ride wave {iV} up and wave {V} DOWN!!!

 

On a large scale this is a huge opportunity for the next 2 waves. We can even have top/bottom arguments daily/weekly on the sub waves of both {iV} and {V}.  Weather it’s 692.3 or it goes lower. You have the rest of the investment community that control the market to consider. Enormous institutions that spend tons of $$ making automatic programs based on variables factors and Elliott is a part of that (I don’t know exactly). Why else have we seen the crazy fights on not only obvious support and resistance levels, but also support or resistance based on Elliott rules. After 2 months of watching GV charting he has not had to change his charts ONCE. (He leaves that to me…lol) 

 

My message is simple. I think even though we may argue the exact bottom, the bottom of wave {iii} will trigger the explosive gains in the S&P500 that we are all afraid to not be apart of it. That bottom will conclude growth on the majority of scales, daily, weekly and monthly… If you looking past 2-4 months, then yes, you can wait for wave {V}, and ride the market back past the confirmed low… 692.3, 685 (GV lowest prediction)… 660.

 

Sorry for the rant. I did bills and had a jack and coke…

 For the Horde! Report this comment
#35) On March 04, 2009 at 12:51 AM, herztical (28.15) wrote:

They are walking dead subsidized by the tax payer. Think that is sustainable?

Yes...the US Govt unfortunately has endless ability to print money; they don't have to worry about stop losses

Think we are going to rally off this mess? Think we can shuffle this under the rug?

Yes...and yes, the rug is quite large!

 Happy trading though!

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#36) On March 04, 2009 at 12:54 AM, BaitBoyinOK (< 20) wrote:

Hello, I'm back! Posting problems last night and night before, as is usual of late - which scares the heck out of me on being able to call my wife at home from work to pull a trade on short notice. Ergo, I defer to my first post on what the heck can I do given my current trading environment? Well, I've taken all of your advice under advisement and will get to that in a moment.

 First and most important, GV said I had a strange name, hence the following explanation: while I lived in Texas, up until summer of '00 - I and a couple of older buds went down to the Padre Island National Seashore to surf fish just about every third to fourth weekend for a few years. Being younger and spryer than they I would be sent off hustling down the beach to throw a cast net for bait fish. The one weekend they went when I could not - nary a bait could they catch. As legend has it on the local Texas coastal surf fishing boards go, never again would they venture from home on a surf fishing trip lest they had 'BaitBoy' with them. That name has stuck for nearly 20 years, now. Do a search on BaitBoy and the Gulf of Mexico, surf fishing - all of it combined - and find out what relaxing in God's country is all about.

 DISCLAIMER HERE - I'm posting this now to let you know I'm in and I'm here, but given our 'gotta love that country livin'' ethos, sometimes nature and the good ol' Okie winds break up my network communications continuity. IF, and only IF, you see multiple posts from me, it is not because I am a techie cripple. It is because I am so frustrated at my 2 tin-can and string connections that I make multiple hits on the keyboard. (Notwithstanding that me n' Capt Morgan and a little KO have likely come to an agreement earlier in the evening.)  That being said, next post provides my own plan of action, or better yet - inaction to address current market activities.

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#37) On March 04, 2009 at 1:06 AM, herztical (28.15) wrote:

...and how great would it be if the market NEVER closed! Call me a fool but I bet we see it within 50 years

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#38) On March 04, 2009 at 1:49 AM, BaitBoyinOK (< 20) wrote:

A given - I cannot respond quickly enough to trade in a heartbeat. Another given - I was not able to exact some trades last Thursday or Friday to unload toxic stocks and get into cash position for this week's parade. Given - I must sit on what I've got and hope to ride it up for the next 7-15 days, and then sell all non-performers. I have no doubt that doing so will provide me with more cash to play better then.

That being said, I just have to play paper trading for the time being and here are my thoughts:

Had I been able to get to cash last week, I would probably, given the short time I have had to study this thread (mainly Saturday and Sunday, but about 18 hours total) think about setting up for 4 March, Wednesday morning a buy on SSO when S&P goes up to 700, planning on long. At the same time, given GMX considerations, I would stop said SSO at 690-685 if it headed down after buying, but also, in the same vein would go for QID at the outset that S&P hit 685 and ride that down, doing the best to track it tightly. Because of the tightly bound firewall at an Air Force base, I can follow this thread, but all the charts are blocked. Frustrating to say the least. Be that as it may, the MISSION that I am paid to do is my first priority and nothing else matters. I am leery of the possibility of the S&P to plunge down through the resistance point, ergo my desire to buy into QID when it hits my target point.

 Paramount is the desire and necessity to watch for severe reversal in either direction. Therein lies MY rub - I can't devote enough time to track it that closely, nor see the updated charts from Russ or GV.

 At the point in the future when another maximum biorythm chart multiple intersection looks to express itself on the radar, I can only hope that I can take one of my many multiple days off from work for two or three days and join you all in the big group hug on satisfaction guaranteed.

 Alll of THAT bing said, does anybody have any thoughts on my 'paper trade' proposal?

Not that I don't trust GV and his TA prognostications, but I don't not trust GMX's prognostications just as much until I've had time to read the books and study the underlying theory.

I would like to be able to consult the Professor emeritus, and chair of Artificial Intelligence at Chase-Western Reserve U. in Cleveland and get a piece of his software to roll into this discussion. I dearly love, given my background in the field, a 2 dimensional in three-space visual of these charts. He is the inventor of fuzzy logic and has many wonderful software developments. A three dimensional view of these charts would be SO much more instructional. Picture a bulge that fills your screen when the desired indices cross paths.

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#39) On March 04, 2009 at 2:01 AM, TheGarcipian (38.58) wrote:

I think GMX has got it closer than GV, but I hope GV is more right because some of my money is already on the table :-)   However, if the market does drop to 650-660 tomorrow, I will load up even more for the forthcoming bounce.  I also think GMX has got the better longer-term view in that we are definitely heading down to the low 500's IMHO, and possibly lower. (However, I'll use GV's charts & mantras to make coin intra-day; this whore doesn't care where the money comes from, so long as it stays in my pocket).

I've heard new 2009 estimates for the S&P500 Earnings being now down to $38. Using a "fair" P/E multiple of 12 yields a price of $456 for the S&P500. If the P/E were to drop to severe bear market value like 9 or 10, your S&P500 price drops to under $400. Yikes. How's that for a "warm fuzzy"?  Think I just peed my pants.

Granted, it will take 6-9-12 months to get there, but we will get there. So many macro-economic events have not yet taken place (bank trust issues, anyone? more insurance corp bankruptcies? sure thing). Collectively, we as a country and as a stock market are not ready for any sustainable bull drive at this point (i.e., today), and probably will not be for another 12-15 months. If you want macro-economic indicators as backup, go read my "Road Signs" series starting here and here. In the meantime, we can make money in this sideways and downward-trending market. I think GV's TA skills may help confirm the general trend, but to quote GMX from above:

"EWT works much better in hindsight than as a forward indicator, though it works well enough for some people to consistently make coin off it. (I make most of my money off my fundamental analysis and use simple technicals like volume, stochs, and support/resistance to aid my entries into fundamental positions). However, I cannot resist the allure of short-term trading as well. Short-term, we get a bounce, long term: hello Lucifer."

LOL. Me too, buddy, me too.

GV, please keep making your charts and I'll try to catch up with your thinking (though it still looks like reading the tea leaves for what you want :-). I even downloaded some EWT stuff tonight to begin researching it.

Peace,
--Gar

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#40) On March 04, 2009 at 2:13 AM, beyondanonda (26.40) wrote:

GMX....you sound like a knowledgeable trader..or investor, I am just wondering if you have had an opportunity to benefit from the recent swings in the market, or is that not your cup of tea?  I was strictly fundamental in picking short Euro and health care (rxd) but I have to say that I was equally fortunate on 3 swing trades based on GV's presentations here.  I admit I am long for a short while (can I say that?)  but regardless of the results over the next couple of days I can cut losses and still have a handsome return over the last couple of months.  Regardless of size of correction still to come and until long term buy and hold makes sense again, I have witnessed the potential of using a technical view for large gains in a short period of time...and you cant fault GV's timing on gold.  Just wondering if you have no faith in TA at all or simply enjoy the debate (as I do). 

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#41) On March 04, 2009 at 4:15 AM, goldminingXpert (29.57) wrote:

Garcipian, glad my words connected with you. Sounds like we have similar trading styles. I'll be watching your picks more carefully.

Beyondanonda, I sometimes catch swings, sometimes I don't. My favorite plays usually are on index options that expire one to two months out from when I buy them--so that is short-term trading. I will be attempting to go long for a swing from 660 if we get there, but I'm picky about my entries and set tight stops, so I'm usually out of the market. I generally have better luck trading things that fundamentally don't make sense (gold at 1,000) and then applying a technical filter (it's a double top so big you can see it from Mars) and if all my factors align, I make a big bet on it. I currently have five different short precious metal sector bets open some of which are richly profitable and others of which are still waiting to take off--but when the confluence of factors arrives, I go in big-time. However, I see nothing in the indices that would compel me to play them with more than 5-10% of my risk capital. If we get the S&P back up to 800 and my factors I short with align, I'll make a much bigger short bet up there.

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#42) On March 04, 2009 at 6:29 AM, Mary953 (75.54) wrote:

GMX - I appreciate your clarifications.  I really did.  You summed up with a couple of sentences the basic answer I needed.  I was confused and I didn't know where the numbers were coming from.  There are more numbers flying around, but I have decided that what matters is this - If I don't feel totally comfortable about what I am doing, I will wait until I know what is going on.  If I miss a bit of the bottom by doing that, so be it.  I can sleep better at night by doing things this way.  I came in to see what the day would bring and hoping for just such an explanation and found politics.  I will gladly admit that the only thing I want to do about politics at this moment is to not think about them, ignore the very existance of Washington and try to forget that our government seems to think that they have first rights to everything we own.  Please don't bring that beastly topic into this blog site.

RussWild - I am adding you to my favorites list.  You are taking a great deal of time and effort to share with this community and I appreciate it.  This is possibly the only way to express that.  Thank you!

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#43) On March 04, 2009 at 7:16 AM, kstarich (31.06) wrote:

Me too Russ.  Added as favorite.

Notice this AM lots of activity in oil already.  Same for UYG,FAS and moving up too.  SSO is inching up.  Any thoughts anyone?

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#44) On March 04, 2009 at 7:43 AM, Aerius (83.89) wrote:

There's not much I can add to this discussion as I have little to no understanding of TA and only slightly more with regards to investing. But I will say that I enjoy the fact that I've played some small part in tying Socrates to investing.

Thanks for the endorsement GV.

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#45) On March 04, 2009 at 8:06 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Good morning smart cookies! I hope all of you had a lovely night and will have a profitable day. Are you ready for the delayed pleasure to arrive to our hearts?

Mary - "Please don't bring that beastly topic into this blog site"
Although I don't like to hold someone from speaking up their minds, I'll say to your words; "Amen!"

Again, "Did you find your cat?". King will sure be happy that you did.

Russ - Step in to acknowledge your fellow students who are giving you well deserved honor. Clap! Clap! Time to take the time! Add, build, and make a positive difference. I know, I know, take your time learning while showing the way. Openning the door to someone else will open heaven's gate for you. You will learn faster and get rewarded more than you think. :) Do you remember how does it feel to be a free bird? Just one thing; know what you know, and know more what you don't. For the Horde!

All - Did you check comment #33 to know where we are? 

I hope this find you and yours well.

GoodVibe

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#46) On March 04, 2009 at 8:38 AM, Mary953 (75.54) wrote:

GoodVibe,

A slight misunderstanding.  I have 3 very large dogs and 3 cats, all indoor pets and King will understand that it is possible to be fluent in "Cat."  We had a cold misty rain on Friday.  A young cat came up and protested getting wet.  He is friendly, an indoor pet (fur), pampered (feet), loved (disposiion), lost, confused (9-10 months old), and very close to his home.  His flea collar hasn't been out of the package for more than a week at most.  He is living here because the temperature at night is in the teens and we have rain when it warms up.  Also because he won't leave.  Yesterday, it was nice and I thought he had gone.  I looked into the fenced area and all three dogs were playing with him on the porch.  All four of them were having a blast.  He is no larger than their heads.  Someone is worried about this little guy.  I will get him back home or find him a home.  Tell King that he wandered into the best person for miles around.  This little guy will get back home.

GV, I'm going to stay out of things today.  I got a bite on my arm yesterday and typing is a bit painful today, but I will be watching to see how things go for everyone.  (One of the 110 pound dogs was so intent on protecting me that he nailed the thing that was holding him back.  Unfortunately, it was me.)  Have a great day,  I'll be thinkin' of you.

Mary

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#47) On March 04, 2009 at 8:42 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

This is the most suitable count for yesterday's action but it's early to declare it correct. The wave still young and must mature to call my count correct. We don't see what we want but see what is. We stay within set of rules to anticipate the coming wave form. More often a good TA analyst will get it right than wrong.

Victory is 715. Enjoy it! Keep the faith!

....................      Believe but question. Trust but verify.    .................. 

SP Daily 03.04.09

Enlarge

Russ - Feel free to update my count on this chart during the day. If I see anything you didn't do right, I'll step in to mention it. 

Goodvibe

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#48) On March 04, 2009 at 8:55 AM, Mary953 (75.54) wrote:

GV - Perhaps it is because I have spent all this time looking at your charts and so I am used to them.  Your charts make sense to me now and your notation is one I have gotten used to.  When you chart a couple of times and Russ charts everything in between then it is all fairly clear. I got lost yesterday when I lost the flow and couldn't jump back in.  This chart puts me back where I needed to be. M

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#49) On March 04, 2009 at 9:01 AM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

Europe is up 1-2% and accelerating. China is currently +6%. Futures shrugged off the ADP report but USB cut its dividend. Smart move on an upswing or a dangerous one at this test level?

Trader talk supports your thesis with some optimists projecting a rally for months. However, Hedge Funds are shorting many sectors so this is likely to be very choppy.

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#50) On March 04, 2009 at 9:06 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Here's a better one with 3 days instead of one to give you an idea of where we came from and where are going to. It's rough one and has no relation to time. Just to show you the direction and the steps we have to take.

SP Daily 03.04.09I

Enlarge

GoodVibe

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#51) On March 04, 2009 at 9:27 AM, arboretum (28.37) wrote:

Futures @706.

If GMX  counts futures in his? chart, then there is a 40% chance the bottom is already in, according to his percentages there... I think he is hedgeing his bets. But like was said last night, after hours doesn't mean much especially in the evening.

Believe it or not, I was about to go long on tech when the Nasdaq dipped below 1200. GV saved me some $$ by persuading me it was NOT time to go long yet. GMX also went long on the Wilshire at about S&P 741, remember? I don't bet on what GV says because he says it, but my new policy is to NOT make major moves without checking this blog first, and it's paying off nicely so far. It was scary at the close yesterday but I have all appendages crossed for today.

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#52) On March 04, 2009 at 9:27 AM, beyondanonda (26.40) wrote:

GMX

Thanks for the details of your style.  This is the first year I have personally taken over my investments and its been quite successful, due in large part to input from successful traders ideas.  GV has been an enormously valuable resource and I will listen closely your ideas too. 

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#53) On March 04, 2009 at 9:35 AM, kingofshorts (< 20) wrote:

sells the q's

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#54) On March 04, 2009 at 9:36 AM, arboretum (28.37) wrote:

Whoopee - here we go!

I meant 1400 on the Nasdaq by the way. I think my style is similar to GMX, and I agree with a lot of what he says, but I'm looking at GV's record with the Elliot wave stuff and he's anticipated support / resistance / MACD / slow stochs by a day or so.

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#55) On March 04, 2009 at 10:01 AM, herztical (28.15) wrote:

Hit head @ 711 (sigh)...come on Mr. market you can do it!

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#56) On March 04, 2009 at 10:07 AM, kushme (24.73) wrote:

so close

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#57) On March 04, 2009 at 10:15 AM, Ecomike (< 20) wrote:

Many of my stocks were up so high this morning was I very temped to sell. Up 10% on average.

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#58) On March 04, 2009 at 10:17 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Rough update:

SP Daily 03.04.09II

Enlarge

S&P 701.47 (BRB - I am doing some selective buying here)

GoodVibe

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#59) On March 04, 2009 at 10:22 AM, kstarich (31.06) wrote:

ArboretuI am also watching TYH.  Your thoughts on this one?

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#60) On March 04, 2009 at 10:26 AM, kstarich (31.06) wrote:

Arboretum-Sorry for the spelling mistake

Can someone tell me how to paste a blue highlighted CAPS name?

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#61) On March 04, 2009 at 10:28 AM, kingofshorts (< 20) wrote:

the die have been cast now we wait!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qi9sLkyhhlE

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#62) On March 04, 2009 at 10:36 AM, Mary953 (75.54) wrote:

King -

Would you believe I was trying to decide between that and "Born to be Wild"?!?

 

 

And the Kitten I was putting flyers up about is a very sweet young cat that has showed up and is trying to adopt me.  If I didn't already have 3 cats who are not happy about the idea, it would be a wonderful match.  This little guy is so darling though that there has to be a family out there looking for their pet.  I am trying to help them find him before my husband and I become too crazy about him.  He and the dogs get along great!  (See comment above)

Mary

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#63) On March 04, 2009 at 10:36 AM, herztical (28.15) wrote:

king...lol I guess you need sound to enjoy that clip!

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#64) On March 04, 2009 at 10:41 AM, kingofshorts (< 20) wrote:

and while we wait for the chesse!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q8f5SpK0Rc8&feature=related

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#65) On March 04, 2009 at 11:00 AM, PrestonCheek (32.71) wrote:

I have added a little more to my positions.

TYH, SSO, QLD, and FAS.

I hope all is having a good day.

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#66) On March 04, 2009 at 11:05 AM, goldminingXpert (29.57) wrote:

We're getting very close to me having to say those magic words, "I'm wrong, again." Nice call GV.

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#67) On March 04, 2009 at 11:08 AM, ayekappy (< 20) wrote:

Well it jumped from 710 to 712 in just a second, so let's see if GV is correct.  So far not bad. :)

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#68) On March 04, 2009 at 11:12 AM, kstarich (31.06) wrote:

Mary

I would be happy to take the kitty, my kids have been begging for quite some time, however I think you live quite far Wisconsin.

S&P 712

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#69) On March 04, 2009 at 11:15 AM, nevercanstop (< 20) wrote:

Heading out to go see the Orioles spring training game against the DR team.  No more trading today.

Looks like a great call GV, can't wait to see it later this afternoon.

Good day, and profitable trades, to all......

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#70) On March 04, 2009 at 11:16 AM, Ecomike (< 20) wrote:

Question! Where do you guys get real time spx and INDU data and charts? I think mine at Fidelity.com are real time, and I thought ino.com was real time, but I noticed the ino.com seems to lag fidelity.com (or is it reversed?) even thoiugh they show the same time stamp. I can get free real time stock quotes at nasdaq.com and logged into my fidelity.com brokerage account.

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#71) On March 04, 2009 at 11:22 AM, intersub (43.48) wrote:

So, we crossed the barrier at 711.62.  Are we good to go or do we need to close above there?

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#72) On March 04, 2009 at 11:26 AM, anchak (99.85) wrote:

Watch the Financials(SKF) ...until they participate , I don't think you can call this yet

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#73) On March 04, 2009 at 11:29 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

SP Daily 03.04.09III

Enlarge

Current 712.75

GoodVibe

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#74) On March 04, 2009 at 11:30 AM, columbia1 wrote:

GMX- I do appreciate your opinions, but when I keep reading from you "all in", I can not help but to believe you are referring to me. "all in" to me refers to the amount of money I have devoted to this trade, I am still learning something new,  going from investing, before you were only a glimmer in your dads eye, to swing trading a few months ago. The amount of money I am playing with is a drop in the bucket of my retirement, most of which is tied up in real estate(paid for in cash) and gold that I started accumulating in 1985 (after the bubble popped),  the rest is CDs and money markets. I look to you, because you have more experience in swing trading, and spend vast amounts of time researching stocks, I even took your advice and decided to use ETFs for trading instead of individual stocks. But please don't worry about me losing money in my attempt to learn something new to me!!!

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#75) On March 04, 2009 at 11:33 AM, douglask66 (< 20) wrote:

SPX - 714.28

The financials still aren't doing anything, at least not that I can see yet. 

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#76) On March 04, 2009 at 11:35 AM, Ecomike (< 20) wrote:

GMX may still be right, but just too early on his call. March 20-27 (or a month or two later) may hit a wall on wave 5 down at GMX's magic number!

 

THey may both be right, just at different times. 

 

Can anyone here smile and say "CHEESE!" 

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#77) On March 04, 2009 at 11:38 AM, jimmybroderick (< 20) wrote:

sorry if you folks aren't fans of improv rock, but since a large majority of the followers of this blog are considered lemmings what better way to look at the market than through the eyes of Phish? :)

 I think Boogr will like it

 

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#78) On March 04, 2009 at 11:40 AM, goldminingXpert (29.57) wrote:

The amount of money I am playing with is a drop in the bucket of my retirement,

Good. I was afraid you meant all-in as in 100% of your liquid net worth.

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#79) On March 04, 2009 at 11:47 AM, Ecomike (< 20) wrote:

Perhaps all the finacials need to do for this rally, for now is just stop droping. Citi has closed higher the last 2 days from its interday bottom 2 -3 days ago. The insururers I watch (and own) are off their lows from this morning and yesterday.

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#80) On March 04, 2009 at 11:49 AM, goldminingXpert (29.57) wrote:

GE needs to stabilize then we can probably start to recover.

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#81) On March 04, 2009 at 11:50 AM, VIS46 (25.60) wrote:

GV;

At what level of S&P we will start taking profits in this trade.Nice call. Thanks very much for your great help.

Vis

 

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#82) On March 04, 2009 at 11:51 AM, goldminingXpert (29.57) wrote:

Long a block of FAS here at 3.82 for a daytrade only. We're about to get ignition. currencies say that liftoff is coming...

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#83) On March 04, 2009 at 11:52 AM, goldminingXpert (29.57) wrote:

VIS46, not yet buddy. First strong resistance is likely 740, assuming we clear and hold 715--which should be imminent.

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#84) On March 04, 2009 at 11:56 AM, herztical (28.15) wrote:

...wouldn't worry much about the financials (stock wise) they are like the 5th/6th "largest" sector now?  If GE goes to 0, that's worth about -50 to 60 on the dow.  Funds dumping GE since not a div play anymore, better question is so what is GE now? a growth stock lol! I guess you can call it distressed.

...flirting w/ that 715 mark!

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#85) On March 04, 2009 at 11:56 AM, binve (< 20) wrote:

jimmybroderick, Excellent call man. Yeah, I saw Phish in 95, man that was a good show. Good times :)

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#86) On March 04, 2009 at 11:56 AM, Xciteddon (68.97) wrote:

GV Great idea! love your community. I have been watching for several days now. I am still confused but I have learned alot from you and everyone else too!:) You are all are my favorites. I really like the good attitudes of everyone here! I hope to learn more!

Thanks for everything

Keep up the good work!

Dee

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#87) On March 04, 2009 at 11:57 AM, VIS46 (25.60) wrote:

Thanks GMX

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#88) On March 04, 2009 at 11:59 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

I actually bought GE today and DRYS yesterday. :)

Current 714.5 are you ready?

GoodVibe

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#89) On March 04, 2009 at 12:01 PM, Ecomike (< 20) wrote:

There is a buying frenzy going on in the dry bulk shipping stocks today. Some are up 32% already today and are still at 20% of their January highs. BDI is at new 4 month high.

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#90) On March 04, 2009 at 12:02 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Are you ready?

Are you ready?

Are you ready?

Current 713.95

GoodVibe

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#91) On March 04, 2009 at 12:04 PM, Ecomike (< 20) wrote:

GV,

GE is down another 10% today, do you think it has bottomed? I have thought it might still be risky but if you bought it I just might nibble at it myself at the new all time low today. 

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#92) On March 04, 2009 at 12:09 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

An expected pull back to 704 before the launch. Look to the chart and the see the left side replicating in the right side. Can you see it?

Current 710.76

GoodVibe

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#93) On March 04, 2009 at 12:11 PM, Boogpckr (42.48) wrote:

good stuff jim

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#94) On March 04, 2009 at 12:15 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

Sorry party people!

I actually had to work for my paycheck this morning. I hate when that happens! Don’t clients/staff/bosses know I have Charting to do! LOL

 

GV, thanks for the post on the daily charts and the count! I’ll try to update my 1day SPX chart if I can get a few minutes.

 

You know, I never in my wildest dreams thought I would ever be added as a favorite by anyone here on Caps. In fact I didn’t even know where to go to see if some one had. Caps call it “groupies”! What?? I have to show my wife! Maybe I can make her jealous.. "look honey, i'm a rock star"...lol

 

Honestly I’m beside myself. I think I get more credit of knowledge of charting than I deserve. I still feel really new to this and if it wasn’t for GV laying the foundation for me, I would be wrong more times than not.

 

Thank you from the bottom of my heart!

 

~Never give up! Never surrender!~

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#95) On March 04, 2009 at 12:15 PM, musicmaniac599 (< 20) wrote:

Even though the market has already started to bounce financials are still lagging. If the bounce continues are financials going to be left behind? In my opinion latley that have been leading the market both up and down. Seems like it could be different this time.

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#96) On March 04, 2009 at 12:17 PM, goldminingXpert (29.57) wrote:

Bah, stopped out of FAS at 3.65. Bulls=fail so far today. Russell 2k in particular looking weak.

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#97) On March 04, 2009 at 12:23 PM, arboretum (28.37) wrote:

I bought CAT yesterday @22 and calls on QQQQ & SPY. I am scared of DRYS - remember it being voted CAPS scariest stock? But I might dip in now.

kstarich = TYH might work as might QLD but these are really options in disguise, for a short term bet like this I just use genuine March calls. Having said that the valuations have been screwy lately and this is also affecting the ultras. There was a point yesterday where the S&P was up significantly from the open yet the calls were all substantially down, but still all above their Black-Scholes valuation. The market is very mixed up right now. If not comfortable with options I would just trade unleveraged ETFs for the moment.

 

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#98) On March 04, 2009 at 12:25 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Man! You're playing so tight. Not in this market! Day traders are getting killed here no matter what they try. Let it loose a bit.

Are you ready?

Are you ready?

Current 709.27

GoodVibe

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#99) On March 04, 2009 at 12:27 PM, Ecomike (< 20) wrote:

Hertz,

I found your GE comment, growth stock or ?  distressing, LOL. 

Is everyone enjoying the ride up? I sure am! 

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#100) On March 04, 2009 at 12:30 PM, mattskin (< 20) wrote:

GMX - What is the rationale behind your stop-loss point for FAS?  That is a tight stop for that ETF...I bought in at 3.86, with a 12% stop-loss, just because the swings can get so crazy, even on a good day.

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#101) On March 04, 2009 at 12:43 PM, Ecomike (< 20) wrote:

GMX,

 I find your tight stops a little "Short" sighted, LOL. Just having fun, but seriously, in this market I would be broke by now if I had stops, especially tight stops on the stocks I am playing with. Kinda like playing baseball with TNT in the hard ball, LOL. Some of my stocks that I play long with move 20% in a single day. 

I have not learned the options, put & call game well enough to play yet, hoping to try it on the way down after this ride up. Maybe you and GV can school us on that next.

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#102) On March 04, 2009 at 12:44 PM, herztical (28.15) wrote:

GV, Come on DRYS? That's your top red thumb!  I like the industry (long TBSI/NM) but DRYS will never see my money again!  I took my sales procees (after a 7k loss) in January and loaded up on March puts @ 10 when it was around 11 or so. I have a personal vendetta against that company (see my blog if you want more), but I guess I should cash in my puts and avoid emotion. Good luck regardless!

I do however like their daily market report http://www.dryships.com/pages/report.asp on the BDI though, so I guess I want them to stay around if only for that.

 S&P 710... final push through 715 near? (cross fingers) 

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#103) On March 04, 2009 at 12:47 PM, goldminingXpert (29.57) wrote:

Man! You're playing so tight. Not in this market! Day traders are getting killed here no matter what they try. Let it loose a bit.

Not until I see 715. I thought we were going to make it on the last surge up, we didn't, so I left. FAS is down to 3.59 now--XLF is within a penny of its low of the day--staying long into new lows if you're running a day trade=stupid.

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#104) On March 04, 2009 at 12:49 PM, goldminingXpert (29.57) wrote:

There you go, FAS 3.55 now. Saved myself from a further 3% loss on the trade. Cut your losses quickly and let your winners run, eh?

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#105) On March 04, 2009 at 12:49 PM, anchak (99.85) wrote:

Hertzical.....On rallies like this its the crap that floats......Dry Bulk is a great bet - like it happened to EGLE - was up 50% on one of the days due to short covering.

One would have expected some participation in Financials - if you see that - then there would be a lot of panicked shorts - not happening till now SKF up 4% currently - very bad sign

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#106) On March 04, 2009 at 12:55 PM, kingofshorts (< 20) wrote:

yes, we are!! but the market is some what heavy but we have a upside bias

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P7ECdYboOVA

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#107) On March 04, 2009 at 12:55 PM, gonelong (35.43) wrote:

If we can get a spark from the financials, this powderkeg would go off IMO.  FAS has been taken behind the wood shed today.

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#108) On March 04, 2009 at 12:56 PM, arboretum (28.37) wrote:

I just bought UYG @ 1.78. This has been a weird bottom, first energy, then industrials & transport, I think financials are lagging but unless they all go bust it's hard to see too much more downside from here.

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#109) On March 04, 2009 at 12:59 PM, Ecomike (< 20) wrote:

EGLE is up 42% on high volume, DRYS is up 37%, the others are not far behind in the dry bulk shipping stocks. If this is not a rally getting off the ground I don't what it is. The ones I bought, EXM is up 26%, and PRGN up 17%. PRGN may still have a dividend. News to come next week.

 

Time some rally music folks! 

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#110) On March 04, 2009 at 1:00 PM, mattskin (< 20) wrote:

GMX - I think you made a wise move, I am regretting my loose stop-loss....

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#111) On March 04, 2009 at 1:00 PM, goldminingXpert (29.57) wrote:

Mattskin

My trade was a loser from 3.82 (entry) to 3.65 (exit) (-4.4% loss)

Your entry at 3.86 will likely result in your stop getting hit at 3.40, or 3.39 (12% down is 3.3968.)By the time FAS got to 3.65, it was clear the trade (imminent break north) was a dog, and so I bailed figuring the writing was on the wall. Now here we sit at 3.46.

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#112) On March 04, 2009 at 1:02 PM, goldminingXpert (29.57) wrote:

Yeah, mattskin, hindsight makes everything clearer. If only I could get tomorrow's wall street journal today. If only...

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#113) On March 04, 2009 at 1:03 PM, herztical (28.15) wrote:

Anchak, agree somewhat. I wish some financials would participate...just got stopped out of JPM.

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#114) On March 04, 2009 at 1:04 PM, kdakota630 (29.73) wrote:

goldminingXpert

I have to keep asking because you keep trying trying FAS so you must believe it's going to run and soon.  How far have you lowered your estimates on how far it can go?

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#115) On March 04, 2009 at 1:04 PM, Ecomike (< 20) wrote:

PNX was down 30% this morning. It is now almost dead even, back up near its close yesterday. HIG was down 15%, but is back to dead even today.

 

Last post should have read:

Isn't it time for some rally music here? 

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#116) On March 04, 2009 at 1:08 PM, kingofshorts (< 20) wrote:

buys the q's 27.20

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#117) On March 04, 2009 at 1:08 PM, kingofshorts (< 20) wrote:

buys the q's 27.20

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#118) On March 04, 2009 at 1:09 PM, silverminer (30.58) wrote:

Mary953

My dear lady, please consider the wisdom of zooming out from the short-term focus of our beloved chartists. You can easily exhaust your investment capital chasing charts in this environment. Your energy, respectfully, is better spent identifying the individual companies that you consider best-equipped to survive this financial calamity and nibbling on some of those while retaining some cash on the sidelines for potential lower buy-ins.

While these guys debate back and forth, you have extremely qualified technical analysts like Louise Yamada calling not only 6,000 / 600 for Dow and S&P as next support, but also stating an unfortunate likelihood of 4,000 / 400. The important thing is, we have no idea where the bottom lies. The only rational path is to employ fundamental analysis combined with a touch of technical and a touch of value analysis to locate the companies in select sectors that you consider viable and financially bomb-proof. As long as you look to the charts like some kind of Oracle at Delphi, you will continue to sit in the back of the room with a disgruntled expression on your face.

I express these sentiments in friendship, in hopes that you will take this opportunity to zoom out and take in the broader financial landscape.

You need to seek meaningful protection in this environment, not chase near-term bottoms on the basis of technical analysis that ignores the fundamental.

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#119) On March 04, 2009 at 1:14 PM, goldminingXpert (29.57) wrote:

FAS can still double--the question is what the base price will be from which it doubles. At this point, 8 is looking like about as far as it could easily get to.

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#120) On March 04, 2009 at 1:15 PM, goldminingXpert (29.57) wrote:

Meaningful protection through, say, gold, which is down 8 out of the last 8 trading days?

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#121) On March 04, 2009 at 1:19 PM, oldfashionedway (35.84) wrote:

Hey Vibers-

Peter Brimelow has an article on the Elliot Wave Theory over at MarketWatch.com.  When you get done ringing the cash register today, you might go check it out.

Is it possible that if enough traders or automated programs subscribe to the theory that it could be self-fulfilling?  Seems to be working right now.  Good luck to all!

A comment from a curious "lurker".  ;-)

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#122) On March 04, 2009 at 1:21 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Thanks! silver #118 It's very good to see some fresh and sincere comment like yours. Some people must understand that what I do here is not for everyone. If you honestly believe that you can't take it, watch and learn more to see how far you can go. If you find yourself comfortable, go ahead and do it. It's the most rewarding experience I had in life so far. If what I do isn't your cup of tea, then learn the basics from me and use it beside what you feel comfortable with.

Thanks again silver. You're welcome to stop by and add your thoughts to the conversation.

GoodVibe 

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#123) On March 04, 2009 at 1:23 PM, Ecomike (< 20) wrote:

GMX,

Meaningful protection through, say, gold, which is down 8 out of the last 8 trading days?

When  I think of meaningfull protection in this market I think of condoms.

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#124) On March 04, 2009 at 1:24 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Are you ready?

Are you ready?

 

Current 709

GoodVibe

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#125) On March 04, 2009 at 1:27 PM, silverminer (30.58) wrote:

goldminingXpert

precisely :P

Thanks to the hedge fund and pro traders' black box algorithm trading Fools are getting a final opportunity to buy into gold. It may go lower still, but if you zoom out and take in the longer-term picture, further weakness means further opportunity to get long. 

The illusion of wisdom in short-term trading is the single greatest danger to Fools. There is greater wisdom in burying cash in the back yard than there is to trying to time these markets and guess near-term bottoms as markets bounce around chaotically in a state of utter disarray.

If you must play recovery... play oil. If you don't have exposure to gold, use this correction as an opportunity to get some. Keep some cash on the sidelines since there is no bottom in place that can be trusted with even an ounce of rational confidence. 

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#126) On March 04, 2009 at 1:28 PM, mistermiranga (93.16) wrote:

So ready...

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#127) On March 04, 2009 at 1:31 PM, cbwang888 (25.53) wrote:

I closed my SMN, ERY and QID ultrashort greenthumbs today but let my SRS and FAZ run. Bull has not won, YET. 

I predicted March 20 the short term bottom for 10% rally (700pt) from 6300~6500. See my blog yesterday.

FAS, where is the bottom?

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#128) On March 04, 2009 at 1:31 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Silver wrote: "as markets bounce around chaotically in a state of utter disarray"

Now, I beg to differ! :)

GoodVibe

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#129) On March 04, 2009 at 1:39 PM, ColoCdn (< 20) wrote:

GV - again, great stuff you've been doing here.  I've been following in the background, but appreciate your incredible efforts here within the CAPS community.  Based on the length of these blogs, it's also apparently not going unnoticed!

Here's to hoping we see 715+ sometime today... Europe closed very strongly so maybe we'll have the same good fortune! 

Thanks again..

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#130) On March 04, 2009 at 1:40 PM, silverminer (30.58) wrote:

GoodVibe4Ever

It's not that I can't take it, and it's certainly not that I lack a full understanding of the relevant tricks of the technical trade, but rather it is a basic philosophical disagreement that amateur investors are well-served trying to trade solely on the basis of technical analysis or chasing near-term action when the only thing that can be discerned with an ounce of rational confidence is the long-term trend and the broader fundamental macroeconomic landscape.

If you haven't guessed, this is TMFSinchiruna. [I didn't realize I was logged in as silverminer].

GV, you are great about constantly offering caveats to your analyses saying that people should do their own due diligence, that your own risk tolerances and time horizons may not match up to other investors, etc, etc., and I appreciate those reminders to your fellow Fools. Keep them coming, because my greatest fear is that Fools who might not otherwise have ventured into the technical trading game during normal market periods due to a lower risk tolerance may suddenly dive in based upon your entertaining posts and a deep sense of frustration since very little is working for people right now.

People who have cash on the sidelines, keep some there... I wish I had been so wise! People who have lost large sums already, be okay with the idea that it might take a while to gain it back. If you get too aggressive chasing gains in this environment, you could get burned BIG TIME! GV's technical analyses are indeed useful tools for investment, but they should be regarded as one of several important tools in the toolbox.

Socrates would not have been a channel trader nor a short-term bottom caller... that I guarantee! :) [That is not directed at anyone, I'm just expressing my strong conviction about what constitutes wisdom in this environment].

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#131) On March 04, 2009 at 1:41 PM, columbia1 wrote:

GV- the charts are playing out just perfect, staying within the trend lines, I reset my stop @ $15.50 and before close will set it to $15.80, that is my avg. buy in price. (SSO) No risk and all reward!!! Thank-you for your time, I am enjoying this new endeavor!!!

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#132) On March 04, 2009 at 1:42 PM, TheGarcipian (38.58) wrote:

silverminer, well said and an excellent warning to all newbies, lookie-loos and wannabes. Day trading is not something you want to do with any significant portion of your portfolio monies unless that is your sole occupation. And even then, you would do it very carefully.

--Gar

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#133) On March 04, 2009 at 1:45 PM, mattskin (< 20) wrote:

I hate FAS, I'm just sayin'...

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#134) On March 04, 2009 at 1:46 PM, kdakota630 (29.73) wrote:

Me too, but if it's going to run, the sooner the better.  I want to load up on FAZ.

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#135) On March 04, 2009 at 1:47 PM, tahoestock (30.24) wrote:

GV...

I thought the correction to 694.73 to steep to be the start of a new wave up, but with the break above 709.93 I concede defeat.  Once again the student is not greater than the teacher.  I am enjoying my profits today with my knees bent and my face to the ground. 

Looking for 775 to prepare for the next ride down. 

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#136) On March 04, 2009 at 1:50 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Oh! I didn't know that! You sounded exactly like TMFSinchiruna, wise man even if your name is different. :)

As I said, please always come to offer your conviction because I am sure some here will find liking in it. This is what I am trying to do here. Build, add, and make positive change. You can do your part.

Thanks Silver, eh Sinch, eh Chris :)

GoodVibe

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#137) On March 04, 2009 at 1:52 PM, kingofshorts (< 20) wrote:

oh great another amateur investor telling some else it can only be done one way!! 

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#138) On March 04, 2009 at 2:07 PM, mattskin (< 20) wrote:

I have never made money on FAS, don't knwo why I keep trying.  FAS is like that girl in high school that doesn't really like you, but LOVEs your attention.  Sure, it will tease you with what looks like a great buying point after getting beat down, but there is just more of that in store.  There is no back seat of dad's Buick at the drive-in...

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#139) On March 04, 2009 at 2:10 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

A look at the 15 day chart...

SPX15day

ENLARGE

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#140) On March 04, 2009 at 2:13 PM, kingofshorts (< 20) wrote:

sells the q's +.28

it pays to play

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HpZl-1FVrzs&feature=related

 

 

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#141) On March 04, 2009 at 2:14 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

currently S&P 713

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#142) On March 04, 2009 at 2:18 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

       I had my celebration yesterday. Today, this is for you all.



S&P 715

PS. Only and just in the spirit of stretching a hand to you, anyone who still doubt the power of TA should either:

1. Join us! All are welcome.
2. Explain to themselves what's happening in this blog.
3. Read the main post here. "Socrates and the Oracle of Delphi"
4. Speak up but Keep their peace and stick to what they believe.

Does that make sense to you?

GoodVibe

Now, it's time to put stops in place for your positions. Never let a winning trade go the other way. Always see both sides.

Any new low is No No!

I hope this added some value to your thinking. I'll be back in an hour. Enjoy it!

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#143) On March 04, 2009 at 2:18 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

       I had my celebration yesterday. Today, this is for you all.



S&P 715

PS. Only and just in the spirit of stretching a hand to you, anyone who still doubt the power of TA should either:

1. Join us! All are welcome.
2. Explain to themselves what's happening in this blog.
3. Read the main post here. "Socrates and the Oracle of Delphi"
4. Speak up but Keep their peace and stick to what they believe.

Does that make sense to you?

GoodVibe

Now, it's time to put stops in place for your positions. Never let a winning trade go the other way. Always see both sides.

Any new low is No No!

I hope this added some value to your thinking. I'll be back in an hour. Enjoy it!

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#144) On March 04, 2009 at 2:19 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

Sorry, that was 5 day... This is 15 day

 SPX15day

Enlarge

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#145) On March 04, 2009 at 2:19 PM, jimmybroderick (< 20) wrote:

just clipped 715.  curious to see what happens now

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#146) On March 04, 2009 at 2:19 PM, douglask66 (< 20) wrote:

S & P - 715.48

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#147) On March 04, 2009 at 2:27 PM, herztical (28.15) wrote:

715...FREEDOM!

 

 

Is GV William Wallace?

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#148) On March 04, 2009 at 2:28 PM, MastiffFool (< 20) wrote:

Hi Everyone. I am new fool, but I've been following GV and his threads for some time.

First a big thank you to everyone here, especially GV!

Now a question. Will most of you lock in your profits before the end of the day or risk letting your positions ride into tomorrow?

I got stopped out of all of mine during a pull-back, but I'll get back in if the market continues to climb.

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#149) On March 04, 2009 at 2:40 PM, ayekappy (< 20) wrote:

I guess I'm looking for selling at around 775.  I wish I had bought nothing (except puts against GSM) until Monday. Instead I've been buying little by little since the Feb 23rd or so. :(  I might more than break even at 775 though.

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#150) On March 04, 2009 at 2:42 PM, Ecomike (< 20) wrote:

OK, how about some advise on stop loss trades in a rising market please. Never done an automated one yet. Not sure I like the idea on a stock i fully expect to triple in a week or 2 due to the volatility and short term climbing market rally, but I will discuss, listen and learn. Of course if one of them is up 50% today I may put in a stop under it. Keep in mind I am limited on day trading as I am stil using IRA cash (margin not allowed), so I can not sell too often, if I do I will miss the biger coming moves to SPX 780-800, because I will need to wait 3 days to buy back in.

 Also, I have set automated sell prices, just not stop losses, or market index triggers, etc.

Might add that I am still more of a long investor, heading more towards short term trading. I am in transition here. 

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#151) On March 04, 2009 at 2:43 PM, anchak (99.85) wrote:

Amazing fight at 715.......Great chart Russ...especially the looks of a reverse-Wedge.

My money on a break UP!

 

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#152) On March 04, 2009 at 2:53 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

Yep, just need a strong wave 3 daily confirm here.

 SPX1day

Enlarge

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#153) On March 04, 2009 at 2:53 PM, kingofshorts (< 20) wrote:

buy's jpm 19.58

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#154) On March 04, 2009 at 2:54 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

News Piece: 

DOW Theory Supports a Rebound [Maybe for months - keyword "Maybe"]

http://www.cnbc.com/id/29504459 

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#155) On March 04, 2009 at 2:58 PM, murugan2 (33.57) wrote:

Russ or GV,

Looking at charts in 139/144 I see either resistance line at 720 (in 144) or likely bounce to 740 (in 139).  Have I read these correctly?  Would a move over 720 in chart 144 change the wave count since that would apparently go into wave IV (1) territory?

thanks - trying to catch on

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#156) On March 04, 2009 at 2:59 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

Sorry,

Dow Theory Offers Rebound Hope 

 http://www.cnbc.com/id/29504459 

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#157) On March 04, 2009 at 3:00 PM, herztical (28.15) wrote:

Eco, place a stop "loss" market at a point you want to lock in gains, say 10%, 20%, whatever your comfortable with. As GV says, don't let a winner become a loser..no matter what you think of the stock.  There are opportunities everywhere!

Also, as a general rule or trading, you should NEVER be fully invested always have some dry powder especially in retirement accounts! So you can always jump in/out.

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#158) On March 04, 2009 at 3:00 PM, columbia1 wrote:

Here's one for you GV, enjoy!!

type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="445" height="364">

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#159) On March 04, 2009 at 3:10 PM, kingofshorts (< 20) wrote:

news that could send market  higher m2m meeting march 12

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#160) On March 04, 2009 at 3:17 PM, BlueInsight (< 20) wrote:

GV,

I've been watching in the wings almost since you started blogging here on CAPS.  I am a very skeptical guy, especially when it comes to the stock market, but today you finally convinced me.  You are obviously a very well read and studied man.  I am very impressed, not only with your knowledge and skill at applying TA, but with your unique and positive perspective on life.  In your blogs I have found messages of Buddhist and Hindu philosophy.  I have found advanced psychological understanding.  But most important I have found a profound message of hope and order in a chaotic world.  Thank you for all that you are doing here.  To be a teacher is a very sacred and honorable duty.  And I am happy to call you teacher.

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#161) On March 04, 2009 at 3:18 PM, agoodlife (< 20) wrote:

What a wonderful world!

724!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vnRqYMTpXHc

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#162) On March 04, 2009 at 3:18 PM, anchak (99.85) wrote:

I have never been a cheerleader of this sort - funny!

But 720+ and SKF retreating......before 3.30 EST - keep this by this time hopefully :

Come HAL9000 do your bit ( ie the hedgies)

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#163) On March 04, 2009 at 3:18 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Heads up:

First resistance @ 725

Current 723.28

BRB

GoodVibe

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#164) On March 04, 2009 at 3:19 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

#155 wave 4 territory is 810 brother.

723-ish resistance back to 715 to prove 715 is now support and you have a nice looking wave 3! with the 1,2 - 1,2 - 1,2 i'm just not sure if we have a 4th 1-2.

Nonetheless it's looking like a great wave 3-4. confirm the new uptrend.

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#165) On March 04, 2009 at 3:29 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

Looking good!

SPX1day

Enlarge

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#166) On March 04, 2009 at 3:30 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Chart update as of 3:25 PM:

SP Daily 03.04.09IV

Enlarge

GoodVibe

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#167) On March 04, 2009 at 3:42 PM, ayekappy (< 20) wrote:

Silly question and I should know this by now, but does that top red line mean you're selling temporarily at 735?

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#168) On March 04, 2009 at 3:52 PM, bigafro (< 20) wrote:

What a thrill the last week has been. I'm a total noob, but have been getting a TMF education for a couple months. I couldn't help but get in on some cheese with what little money I have, and thanks to everyone who actively participates, I got in as close to the bottom as I comfortably could. SSO at 15.67 and QQQQ at 26.75. Thanks to everyone who actively comments, as I learn with every comment. GV and Russ are jedi masters and GMX is the perfect compliment. Well done, and thanks for helping me turn my meager portfolio into a well positioned one. And thanks to all who ask insightful questions and post fundamental challenges. With any luck, I may be able to retire before age 85, and I think today was the start of shaving a year or two off that target. I'll just keep playing and learning. The insight found herein has been of enormous value to me personally and financially, and has been far a better education than I've got from any book.

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#169) On March 04, 2009 at 3:53 PM, goldminingXpert (29.57) wrote:

Uh oh, this close isn't looking so good. Come on, close over 15.

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#170) On March 04, 2009 at 3:55 PM, Mary953 (75.54) wrote:

I MISSED THE DAY!!!!!!!!  O MY - WHAT A DAY TO MISS!!! -- i'VE GOT TO GO GET MORE DRY POWDER LOADED FOR TOMORROW BUT FOR ALL OF YOU WHO HAD THIS WONDERFUL DAY - WOW!!!!!!

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#171) On March 04, 2009 at 3:56 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

current 713 is support and good spot to buy or add. Not a rec. just what I see

BRB

GoodVibe

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#172) On March 04, 2009 at 3:56 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

I'm SSO in the green!!!

5day chart updated come on 715! hold baby hold!!

 spx-5day

Enlarge

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#173) On March 04, 2009 at 3:58 PM, Ecomike (< 20) wrote:

OMG,

 SPX broke down to 712 abd falling, are we in trouble here?

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#174) On March 04, 2009 at 3:59 PM, goldminingXpert (29.57) wrote:

Bought a small block of SDS, this is a pretty good shorting opportunity for a quickie. Target 108-110 tomorrow.

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#175) On March 04, 2009 at 4:01 PM, Mary953 (75.54) wrote:

Turn it all the way up ---->

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#176) On March 04, 2009 at 4:07 PM, Mary953 (75.54) wrote:

Russ - You have at least one groupie - ME!  Isn't it the most amazing feeling in the world knowing someone thinks that much of you?   It is also like saying, you are someone kind of special and what you do or who you are is special to me.  I've sort of let that slide and didn't realize it.

Mary

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#177) On March 04, 2009 at 4:08 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

bigafro, welcome to the club my friend! I'm starting out and wilth small funds as well.

GMX----- yep, that changed the count.... I'm not sure how GV is going to handle it. I think the 1-2, 1-2, 1-2 still stands and we waiting for a confirmed wave 3 or we drop.

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#178) On March 04, 2009 at 4:08 PM, Kmunk (96.28) wrote:

Praise Jesus and GV, we have a bounce! And well said silverminer.

Now where to get back into those shorts, 740 or so is looking good...

Who cares, my entire portfolio is green today, a picture of utter beauty! Spring is in the air...

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#179) On March 04, 2009 at 4:11 PM, goldminingXpert (29.57) wrote:

Kmunk, don't be so sure, that close threw a monkey wrench into the bounce. The bears have a decent case that we had a failed rally with a headfake over 715 and now we're headed back on down.

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#180) On March 04, 2009 at 4:11 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

Why thank you Mary, i'm your groupie as well :)

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#181) On March 04, 2009 at 4:20 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

GMX - Now, I am pissed off!

Man, what are you doing? In the morning, you were calling for a collapse, in the after noon you bought FAS, got stopped, and at the end of the day, you went bearish again calling for return back to where we came from and willing to take risk as this overnight!!

Three different directions in one day!! To be honest with you, you're not doing yourself a favor and breaking the most basic rules of trading to have a plan and stick to it.

Stop jumping from camp to another especially that you don't use TA that much. I dare to say that I can predict small swings than you but I won't do such thing. You're collecting coins in front of a bulldozer that you were thanking me yesterday to bring such analogy to scare people from shorting and here you are jumping in front of the bulldozer! :(

I am just saying this because what you did yesterday and today is just beyond me. I hope you take my harsh words with my good intentions.

I need some rest and I will be back later tonight to reflect, share a laugh or two and talk to all of you, brother and sisters. Thanks for all your comments, praise, and support. I hope you didn't only make money but also knew that you can make it for the rest of your life on your own. Start learning and take your time. One day you will be free.

Free Bird... Free Bird.. 

GoodVibe

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#182) On March 04, 2009 at 4:21 PM, Ecomike (< 20) wrote:

PNX went from and open at .39 fell to .28 and the back up .44 at the close! THose are huge percentage movews. Nice. HIG (Opened at 5.66) went from 4.66 (prior close), to 4.16 low and 5.16 close. ONly dog I had was Citi, but it does seem to ahve bottomed. GE never joined us (yet).

 From what I see of the charts, it looks like the close is right at the lower support. I read in the news today that the China economy is being reported to be on a rebound, and the China Gov just announced another huge spending stimulous plan, in addition to the November plan. 

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#183) On March 04, 2009 at 4:25 PM, herztical (28.15) wrote:

...closed right on the (new) lower resistance line as per #166.  Again, no TA expert here, but we should bounce again tommorow according to the charts

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#184) On March 04, 2009 at 4:27 PM, Ecomike (< 20) wrote:

GV,

Go easy on GMX, he just likes the adrenaline rush he gets in front of that bulldozer, LOL. JUst had a funny thought, I wonder if a shortdozer is any cousin to a "BULL"dozer? 

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#185) On March 04, 2009 at 4:27 PM, Kmunk (96.28) wrote:

Lol GMX, I started writing that post about 10 minutes before the close, got distracted, came back to it and finished it up. THEN I glanced at the close, kind of fizzled out there at the end.

But still, it looked like a fairly solid bull win today and that gap around 740 is beggin' for some fillin'.

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#186) On March 04, 2009 at 4:32 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

If I'm reading GV's #166 chart correctly, a close today above 712.5 is inline with the trend. We closed at 712.87.

I going to have to read the book. This is amazing accurate charting.

Note: there are other Bullish indicators but we need to see this rally last into Friday and survive the news on Monday related to the toxic asset solution. One way or the other, I'm a believer.

I'll have to find a video for that song to post. 

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#187) On March 04, 2009 at 4:32 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

~Herztical

Yes, we are still in the uptrend channel support and resistance have not been broke. Tomorrow will be another crazy day, yet again.

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#188) On March 04, 2009 at 4:39 PM, herztical (28.15) wrote:

...thx russ, and eco, wouldn't it be a beardozer?  Aweful joke btw but I did get a chuckle!

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#189) On March 04, 2009 at 4:42 PM, kingofshorts (< 20) wrote:

how dare you vibe question the thinking of an Xbert yesterday he called me foolish for buying and today he stops out for a lose

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=201Joshj6AQ

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#190) On March 04, 2009 at 4:55 PM, innerflame (< 20) wrote:

GV-  All of your information has been offered with caveats about using it as a tool- according to a person's trading style, risk level, etc. And this blog is positive and welcoming and just plain fun. It is always possible when someone in the sandbox is getting more attention- there will be some repercussions- and maybe even a few sour grapes. I want to thank you for your ability to educate and then get out of the way. My children could have used a few more teachers like you- both sons have engineering degrees. So far so good- and I'm waiting patiently as you have so strongly stressed.

Thanks Kstar for that awesome jetplane XBOX commercial. We all loved it. Good day all- see you tomorrow. (And you are also on my favorites Russ!)

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#191) On March 04, 2009 at 4:58 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ibbsCShn2_M

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#192) On March 04, 2009 at 5:03 PM, TideGoesOut (78.41) wrote:

Holy cow. I don't usually comment negatively, but the percentage of nutso beliefs here today is unbelievable. Go back to common sense.

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#193) On March 04, 2009 at 5:03 PM, kstarich (31.06) wrote:

What a great day!  I hope everyone did well today.

GV - I have a question about the financial markets today.  What is your take on the backwards movement?

Anyone else want to chime in be my guest.

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#194) On March 04, 2009 at 5:06 PM, XMFSinchiruna (27.56) wrote:

GoodVibe4Ever

Now you see... GMX has his eyes so close to the screen that every blink has him looking in a different direction. It's truly dizzying, and I publicly caution Fools from following such an ultra-short-term mindset when investing. This is not in any way a personal slight against GMX, but rather a cautionary word to my fellow Fools that zooming out to a wider perspective is absolutely essential to investing sucessfully in this environment.

I gave up almost a year ago when I could not follow his wild fluctuations between going long and short on gold miners. He is calling for both $2,000 gold and $500 gold at the same time! He's long gold miners one minute, and then insulting gold longs the next. He'll freely dispense trading advice while admitting to having no understanding of a company. He routinely points to one-day movements in an equity or index as being somehow evidence of something. For Fools seeking a safe path through this global storm, ultra-short-term thinking simply is not the recipe for sustained success.

 

 

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#195) On March 04, 2009 at 5:08 PM, cbwang888 (25.53) wrote:

I'm 30% bulls and 70% bear as my portfolio stands. I long basic materials and tech (QLD just today), short REITs and 5% hedging on FAZ. I'm having a fun day. I predicted that insurer stocks like PRU, MET, LNC and HIG will soon lead financial stocks down again.

Good comabt today. Try again tomorrow, SSO bulls.

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#196) On March 04, 2009 at 5:20 PM, musicmaniac599 (< 20) wrote:

Hey guys. I have a great stock pick. You all should look into it. The pros on here probably already know about it. U.S. Steel (X) is the stock. I beleive this stock has fabulous LONG term potential. The stock pays a good dividend and in my opinion it does not have much down side if any at all. It's 52 week high is almost 200 dollars a share and it is now trading under $19. steel production and consumptoin is going to rise. Obama's stimulus bill has spent heaps of money in efforts to construct bridges and other projects that require the metal. Therfore the stock might even show some growth in 2009. Once again I will repeat the fact the stock has a dividende above 5%. Global steel production and consumption are at all time lows. Stimulus bills like Obama's are being created in countries around the world. The only place for steel production and consumption to go is up. This is a LONG TERM investment not a Swing Trade. Steel production is going to rise substantially when we are out of this crisis. Staying in one stock guarantess that you don't miss the bottom of the market. However, we all know that the market could head lower and are afraid of more losses. I think U.S. Steel is analogous to a bunker. It might protect you from future losses while maxamizing your chance to ride the bull out of this slump. I am sure there are other companies that can protect your portfolio in similar fashions. I am not against day trading or swing trading  but you should have atleast one BUNKER stock in case the market rebounds. A BUNKER stock is a stock that has high divident yields, possible short term growth, and DEFINITE long term potential. SO yeah BUNKER STOCKS BABY!!

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#197) On March 04, 2009 at 5:27 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

Thanks innerflame, BTW I find what you do for a living quite amazing. I'm a believer in text "flame"... especially at the workplace. 1/2 of the issues I deal with is text communication problems leading to out of control emotions...lol

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#198) On March 04, 2009 at 5:47 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

I haven't seen any "nutso beliefs" Kickstart70

GoodVibe4Ever announced on February 26th that he was buying and holding as well as closing his shorts.

He explained the charting indicators on the 27th, introduced the fun of defining the "The anatomy of THE bottom" on March 2 and 3 and has extended the fun today with a focus on being open minded.

The accuracy of what he has said is amazing and the spirit in his blog approach has been extremely positive.

Common sense says to enjoy and have some fun ; )

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#199) On March 04, 2009 at 5:52 PM, TigerPack1 (97.01) wrote:

Goodvibe,

Don't get too wound up about GMX, who is a college student in Colorado (if my memory is not mistaken), or the TMF guy that is clearly a perma-bull on gold, per his picks the last few years.

When are you going to add another 70 stocks on the long side in this game?

Bulls on gold and Bears on the market are getting nervous that you may have nailed the peak in precious metals and the bottom in the stock market, AGAIN in your crazy world of TA that you live in.  I am not as bearish on gold as you, but the next leg is clearly down for now, and perhaps more bullish about the prospects for the stock markets of the world, as China "carries" us out of this mess.

When the Obama team comes out with a list of new and revised regulations (many squarely aimed at stopping the short selling boom of 2007-2009) in a few weeks, all the fear today and this week about the world's predicament will look quite foolish, as global stock markets undergo perhaps the largest short covering rally in modern times.  An S&P 500 above 1000 and Dow above 10,000 could happen in a matter of months.  Let's watch and see, shall we?

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#200) On March 04, 2009 at 6:20 PM, herztical (28.15) wrote:

mucisman...I'm no pro on stocks, but I used to like X until last earnings report/call...one of my best long and then short trades this year.  Q1 will be a loss and div not stable.  In this enviornment we are seeing what losses do to share prices; if you want a play on steel, try NUE, but I just missed my entry point (buy was below 30) and I won't chase NUE at these levels. 

X for the VERY long term and don't buy all at once, sure. Either way best to you!

BTW FCX FINALLY broke out of trading range here, I might pull the trigger again on a pull back

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#201) On March 04, 2009 at 6:22 PM, XMFSinchiruna (27.56) wrote:

TigerPack

Definitely not any kind of a perma-bull... just recognizing a multi-year bull market as it unfolds and understanding its fundamental drivers from a macroeconomic perspective. I am an objective, open-minded long-term investor who will turn bearish on gold and silver at the appropriate time as the bull market matures.

Regulating short activity or reinstating the uptick rule could certainly yield a nice rally in the indeces, but it would do little to stem concerns about the overall state of the U.S. and global economies.

I don't think GV is "wound up" about me at all. I think he and I express each others' opinions with mutual respect and admiration. I have said before that I think GV offers a tremendous service to this community, and simply offer my occasional cautionary caveat as a reminder that technical analysis is not the only vehicle available for successful investing.

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#202) On March 04, 2009 at 6:26 PM, goldminingXpert (29.57) wrote:

Don't get too wound up about GMX, who is a college student in Colorado

You judging college students or Colorado? Or both?

as global stock markets undergo perhaps the largest short covering rally in modern times.

Good luck with that.

An S&P 500 above 1000 and Dow above 10,000 could happen in a matter of months.

I could grow some wings and fly to the top of Mount Everest, but I wouldn't bet on that either.

---

It's funny how people who are older look down on us young unsophisticated chumps and assume we're entirely clueless. I'm barely more than a novice at trading, but that may be to my advantadge, I haven't been mistrained by being surrounded by years of Wall Street jargon and its dangerous "conventional wisdom." My mind is still young and free from the mistruths that Wall Street inflicts upon the masses.

----------

All that said, the close under 715, and subsequent further selling in AH is quite bearish. I was never sold on a bull move here as we all know--I figured I'd play along on the long side with a small trade, but by failing in the final hour, the market broke my trust and I must assume the worst until proven otherwise.

That said, I'm short with about 2% of my risk capital, so the market could go to 10,000 tomorrow and I'll be fine.

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#203) On March 04, 2009 at 6:34 PM, TideGoesOut (78.41) wrote:

llcx, I was not referring to GV, actually.

So others here need to put on their tinfoil hats and start stockpiling dried rations.

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#204) On March 04, 2009 at 6:45 PM, beyondanonda (26.40) wrote:

Kickstart,

Contrary ideas are really welcome here, but bringing a logical counter position is of value, calling names not so much.. good luck with your trading, hope you'v'e done as well as most here..

 

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#205) On March 04, 2009 at 6:47 PM, goldminingXpert (29.57) wrote:

TmfSinch, being rude gets rudeness back. However, I will kindly respond to your post despite the misguided nature of the personal attacks.

Now you see... GMX has his eyes so close to the screen that every blink has him looking in a different direction.

So?

It's truly dizzying, and I publicly caution Fools from following such an ultra-short-term mindset when investing. This is not in any way a personal slight against GMX, but rather a cautionary word to my fellow Fools that zooming out to a wider perspective is absolutely essential to investing sucessfully in this environment.

I've owned NXG, JBLU, and others for well over a year now without selling. I've owned NXG since 2006. I take long-term investments. Anybody who has read my blog for instance knows I'm all gaga over Western Refining. In your best stocks of '09 article, you mentioned I picked WNR. It's up 70% since your article.

I gave up almost a year ago when I could not follow his wild fluctuations

My one fluctuation--turning bullish for a couple of weeks. GDX went up 10% in the month following that call.

between going long and short on gold miners.

That blog post (a month before the previous one, mind you, was a call that gold had not yet hit bottom. It dropped $50/oz the next week.

He is calling for both $2,000 gold and $500 gold at the same time!

Yeah, I said $500 during the depression and $2,000 in a range between 2015 and 2017. Didn't realize that was contradictary to have two different price targets for 2010 and 2015. Oops. I'll just go back to drawing my chart straight up. That's right. ;)

He's long gold miners one minute, and then insulting gold longs the next.

Well, that first article was from May 2008 and the second from February 2009. I guess a minute is the same thing as nine months to you?

He'll freely dispense trading advice while admitting to having no understanding of a company.

Geez, buddy. Read my advice. I said to sell half cause it doubled. Since then the stock has stalled out and just reported bad earnings. I didn't give fundamental advice, I just said sell half cause you've got a big winner. That's safe generic advice for most situations.

He routinely points to one-day movements in an equity or index as being somehow evidence of something.

Oh boy. I complain about CAPS liking SLV too much at 17, it subsequently drops to 9 and you're going to criticize me? I said CAPS was too blindly bullish and it was. Check the ratings of people like Cipostripes, yourself, or adventureneil to see what happened to the horde of pm longs.

For Fools seeking a safe path through this global storm, ultra-short-term thinking simply is not the recipe for sustained success.

Well buy and hold long-term thinking sure isn't working.

 

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#206) On March 04, 2009 at 6:47 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

Thanks Kicktart70 - GV doesn't deserve any flack. 

tinfoil hats ;P -- reminds me of the Independence Day LA scene on top of the building with the character wearing a flying saucer hat.

I wonder what will happen when everyone sees the 1000 double top in Gold and misses the upside rally in equities which could be extremely fast. 400 point moves have been common place in the last several months.

No question the problems are extensive but everything is oversold and undervalued.

I'll put my tinfoil hat back on now and say good night ; ) 

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#207) On March 04, 2009 at 6:54 PM, musicmaniac599 (< 20) wrote:

GoodVibe you are awsoume. I am a relativley new member to the site but it is already obvious to me that you are very well informed when it comes to stocks.

I broke about even today. I bought U.S. Steel and WFC before market open. U.S. Steel rose about 10% but WFC droped about 10% The market did bounce but WFC and lots of other banks did not particpate. GoodVibe, what is you opinion should I hold WFC in hopes that it will bounce with the market tomorow or shall i dump it? Thank you so much for your time.

GoldminingXpert you are also cool. You have provided me with good feed back also. Thank you both. I am sorry that it took me this long to become a member of this blog.

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#208) On March 04, 2009 at 7:42 PM, MastiffFool (< 20) wrote:

Thanks again to GV and everyone that's participating here!

 I've been in the red for weeks trying different approaches in trading. I decided a week ago to try GV's Elliot Wave Theory. I still don't have a good grasp of the charting, but I followed all of you into the market blindly hoping that this move up was going to happen.

So, yesterday I bought various steel stocks. It happens to be an industry that I am intimately familliar with. Now one day later, my portfolio is back in the green! What a good feeling! I managed to get stopped out of them late in the day which may or may not be a bad thing.

If tomorrow looks like an up day (keeping my fingers crossed), does anyone have a guess as to which sector of the market might lead this rally higher?

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#209) On March 04, 2009 at 7:52 PM, columbia1 wrote:

The scenario after this correction really could be bleak!!!

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#210) On March 04, 2009 at 8:03 PM, Boogpckr (42.48) wrote:

For GoodVibers,

From the Tao:

The best warrior is never aggressive.

The best fighter is never angry.

The best tactician does not engage the enemy.

The best utilizer of people's talents places himself below them.

This is called the virtue of non-contention.

It is called the ability to engage people's talents.

It is called the ultimate in merging with Heaven.

 

GoodVibes keep up the GoodWork.  I am sure there are many that do not comment that you have helped.  Thanks again.

-bp

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#211) On March 04, 2009 at 8:20 PM, Ecomike (< 20) wrote:

Kickstart, there is nothing common about Common sense, LOL.

 Musicmaniac,

 GV does not give individual stock advice. I too bought a bank stock monday, Citi, thinking it was beat down so far that it might rally hard (like it did last time). This rally has a good ways go, it is just a young child getting started so I would watch WFC and Citi and Chase and see if they don't start to follow the rally sometime tomorrow. The insurance stocks were down today too, until the last 2-3 hours, and they ended UP on the day after big declines in the morning. So the banks may just be slow to take off. I don't see much more downside risk this week for bank stocks during this rally, but that does not mean they will go up much either. I think they will.

 To me the best stock to ride this rally (which is still cheap as of tonight) is HIG, Hartford insurance, as their invested capital in equitites, or their reserve captital for customers annuitites is heavily invested in stocks, so a falling market eats their reserve captial rapidly, and replaces it just as fast on the way back up. IT is immeditate, not like waiting on a stimulous package and orders. HIG dropped to about $4 in the last down leg, ran up to nearly $20 by the first week of January (made a one day move from about $4 back up $8 in the last rally alone), and is back to about $4.5-$5 right now, but it was up 25% from its low this morning at about 3 pm already. I would not hold it too long, just ride a few days to a week at most during this rally. I don't think the bank stocks have near as much up potential as HIG in a fast rising market.

 I am more of Tech guy, who would love to own biotech stocks and make money there, but they have done nothing for me the last 8 years, so I have been watching and waiting, and looking for the stocks that would take off early in a rally like this and make huge moves. The dry bulk shippers already made big moves today, but they have a lot more to go. Same for HIG in my opinion.

 Lets hope the bank stocks join us tomorrow!

 May the force be with us! 

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#212) On March 04, 2009 at 8:39 PM, point312 (< 20) wrote:

I would just like to thank everyone for being helpful on these blogs.I was laid off after 5 years seniority by the bnsf railroad.I don't have alot of money to invest but you guys have provided alot of insight to how to do it a actully make money.I have never invested before and have bought a couple stocks you guys were talking about and actually seen some gains.I didnt invest alot but it very exciting for me.I have worked my whole life this is the first time i have been out of work.Its a blessing though i get to take my kids to school and  pick them up its great.Thank you for the insight its not going to waste..

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#213) On March 04, 2009 at 8:45 PM, Ecomike (< 20) wrote:

GoodVibe!

My compliments to your Voodo charting! My entire IRA balance is up 12 % today alone! My biggest one day gain ever! Beats an 8% gain I had back around January 3-4th.

 Live Long and Prosper People! 

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#214) On March 04, 2009 at 8:46 PM, d1david (29.29) wrote:

just wanted to say that i love ALL the debate going on in this thread.. the ewavers, the support/resistance simple ta people, the short term traders, the long term investors, the buy and hold forever people... the perma bears, its all good.... it helps keep me balanced to read the varied opinions of all even when i don't agree with some of them

thanks for keeping it real-

-david

 

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#215) On March 04, 2009 at 9:22 PM, isusan (< 20) wrote:

Missed the entire day and my head is spinning trying to catch up.  GoodVibe, you host the best blog, no question!  From Socrates to Guy Love was an interesting twist!  Russ, I'd like to add my compliments & thanks too.  It's also nice to hear from so many people.  Ok, back to researching.... :(

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#216) On March 04, 2009 at 10:13 PM, herztical (28.15) wrote:

Point: I don't have alot of money to invest

Be conservative my friend!  I would hate to see you waste away any amount of money you might need by following the trades/strategies mentioned here (they are high risk); especially if your out of work. Always consider your family first.  Maybe just paper trade / CAPS trade for a while to get your feet wet and don't worry about missing out...there will be plenty more opportunities to come! 

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#217) On March 04, 2009 at 10:17 PM, musicmaniac599 (< 20) wrote:

Ecomike thanks for the response. I actually have the exact same view point as you and my fingers are crossed for tommorow. It would be bad news for us if the market rallys and financials lag behind once again.

March 12th- Mark to marketing news could be a big game mover. However, it is to far down the line to talk about that at the moment lets see what happens tommorow first.

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#218) On March 04, 2009 at 10:19 PM, RootnToot (30.15) wrote:

#210 Boogpckr

Right on brother!

#196 musicmaniac599

I too, thought X was the ^%$# two weeks ago and went long at 31. Still holding ::-(

Ecomike, I am in the same boat as you. Our constraints are different that many others following these threads, but the message is no less valuable. After losing my #$% through the funds available in my 401K I put some money in an SDB account and have been 'experimenting' myself. Pretty much holding my own, but I think this probably speaks to the spastic nature of this market more than my trading skills; however, I am LEARNING! Thanks to GV and all here for your passion and dedication!

Please to all, we MUST not let this turn into a pi$%#ng contest between personalities or investing dogma. Most of us, I think, are here to learn and help. I emplore you to respond in kind!

Peace

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#219) On March 04, 2009 at 10:28 PM, RootnToot (30.15) wrote:

Good night all and here is one to start our new day!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=67J_66hdN-I

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#220) On March 04, 2009 at 10:37 PM, mistermiranga (93.16) wrote:

there will be an answer...let it be.

thanks to all of the contributors and of course our host GV. let's get busy living baby... 

 

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#221) On March 04, 2009 at 10:39 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

A new post for a different reason than investing or trading has been published. Please read and respond to that post. I'll open a new one to close this one here for further comment. If you asked a question here and I didn't answer, I'll come back to reply later. I have a lot to say about what happened today in the market and on this blog but I will keep this for later so we can concentrate on the market and making money. I hope to see you all tomorrow. I appreciate this community that you all building it and adding to it in hope we can make positive difference in our lives and the lives of our loved ones.

GoodVibe

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#222) On March 04, 2009 at 11:54 PM, tnk2much (< 20) wrote:

I'm new to Caps but have been following several blogs on here for quite some time. I just wanted to say what a great community you have here and hope you don't mind if I join in the fun!

GoodVibe- Thank you for all you do here! "To give is to recieve"

Anyway, I thought you might enjoy this little video-  I once had a very bad experience investing and I refuse to let it happen again!- Thanks again-tnk2mch

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#223) On March 05, 2009 at 12:36 AM, Mary953 (75.54) wrote:

BlueInsight, BigAfro, ColoCdn, Douglask66, Xciteddon, VIS46, Point312, Musicmaniac, MastiffFool, Tnk2much, and any other new friends (and Oldfashiondway - you are no lurker) - Welcome - We are really glad you spoke up, guys.  GoodVibe keeps saying that this stuff is so easy Even a Caveman or (to me) Cavewoman can do it!  I have been watching him call this stuff with pinpoint accuracy since Jan 23  I asked one question and he started explaining all this for me and then for iSusan. Then for more and more and..... When things slow down, I will put together another index so you can go back and follow the whole ride.  For now, you need to know that if you ask questions, someone will answer.  If that answer seems incomplete, you will get more answers til you are satisfied. If you need to ask again and again, join me in the peanut gallery.  I'm still trying to figure it out, but the company is fantastic!   Crazy but it works. All having a good time.  No personal attacks, just loads of fun and some real results. Just how cool is it to know generally if the whole market is headed up or down and if the really strong solid stocks are going to be on sale or recover?!  That is the beauty of the thing.  It takes out some of the mystery and you can see it eventually.  I tend to be the one that sticks up my hand and says, "What was that?"  or the one that pulls out the music.  Sorry I wasn't around today to greet you.  We have a very special (to me) conference under way here.

GMX - What was with you last night?  Step back and then later come back and read this blog, start to finish as I have done.  I read people having a good conversation, leaving one by one.  The early morning hours bring attack. Today is excitement, fun, intensity, complete forgive-and-forget as far as any hard feelings from the night before. 3:53 - The market hasn't closed and you start casting doubts.  4:11 - Not even time for a victory song. You are already snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

GMX, I like you.  I need your help!  You are such fun.  But You could be turning into one of the leaders here, my friend. As an adult.  There is no age behind a keyboard.  Man up - GoodVibe should feel welcomed here too, don't you think?

Mary

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#224) On March 05, 2009 at 12:59 AM, goldminingXpert (29.57) wrote:

3:53 - The market hasn't closed and you start casting doubts.  4:11 - Not even time for a victory song. You are already snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

Sorry, I really wanted 15 to hold, and when it didn't I had to turn bearish again. At least for a bit. As of now, the futures are down to 703, so it appears my decision to buy SDS will pay off. Technically, 715 has turned back to resistance, and I fear we're heading back for the 600's. I can't wait to see GV weigh in on this. Hopefully he sees a bull case that alludes me out of this mess. The financials in particular are worrisome to say the least.

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#225) On March 05, 2009 at 1:50 AM, herztical (28.15) wrote:

Mary

I compare TA to looking at an empty room and fitting all your furniture in the room without measuring; some people see it right away and some don't.  The ones that don't, just need a tape measure but in the end we all get the same results!

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#226) On March 05, 2009 at 2:04 AM, herztical (28.15) wrote:

...and GMX too close to call for tommorw, worst case sell some longs and ultra hedge

SDS 100+ dicey though (same as skf 200+)...maybe SRS though or EDZ after a nice 20% pullback today

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#227) On March 05, 2009 at 2:47 AM, goldminingXpert (29.57) wrote:

Herztical, the SDS gets sold soon, likely tomorrow. Just looking to scalp 4 or 5 points off it--and I should get it if we open here tomorrow. Buy at 103.50, get 108 and I'm a happy man.

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#228) On March 05, 2009 at 6:32 AM, Mary953 (75.54) wrote:

Guys -

If you don't see it, don't call it, one way or another.  But that was no "empty room" as you put it, herz.  That was a party ready to explode after a real roller coaster day.  GMX, you flipped up the lights, turned off the music, and kicked over the "punch bowl - ahem".  Not cool, friend!  The market will not go one point higher or lower today because we didn't take time to celebrate yesterday.  Celebrate what?  How about celebrating each other and the fact that this many people are working together to help each other move forward in a really scary world.  You can be Bullish on that and I know it. 

Tuesday was really scary for me.  I lost all sense of where things were and where they were going.  I cried out for help understanding after the market was closed and who gave me a short easy answer that I could understand?  GMX, you know it was you.  You usually act like an investor in your 40's.  Man, you have a score of 100,  one of the top 4 on this site!  I am retired  and the last time I was actively investing was in the 1980's. 

Take life a bit easier, cut yourself a little slack, and if you want to talk to someone who will understand the pressure, tack a message on the end of one of my old blogs.  They are all set on follow.  It will be less public and you can have someone to talk to - but not such crazy hours. 

And HERZ, If I look at this as all math, I am lost.  If I look at it as a melody line, it makes perfect sense.  I may not be able to replicate it, but I can see it.  GoodVibe is an absolute Mozart of the TA chart.  RussW is working more toward becoming a Wagner at this point, and opera takes me a bit more to grasp.  If you dislike TA, can you still hang with the group for the fun of it and enjoy the company?  It is still a good party.  ;)  Let's just agree to disagree on the method and you can help steer the ideas for stock selection.  Hey, I like the music.

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#229) On March 05, 2009 at 8:33 AM, Mary953 (75.54) wrote:

Let's use this spot until GV puts up his next post, okay guys?

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=156669&t=01007737217973478225

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#230) On March 05, 2009 at 10:02 AM, EverydayInvestor (< 20) wrote:

lol Goodvibe ... me hitting on Tasty ... I think that is to exaggerate facetiousness.

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#231) On March 05, 2009 at 10:07 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

                     ......................... Notice .......................

This post is closed for more comments. Please click here for the new post

GoodVibe

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