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Greedy bastard investing

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January 28, 2010 – Comments (8) | RELATED TICKERS: PM

Okay, assuming I'm a greedy bastard and I'm so jingoistic that I couldn't care less whether everyone outside the U.S. gets cancer, can give anyone give me a good reason not to buy Philip Morris Int'l (PM)? Does anyone think it's overpriced? Going to fail to achieve its growth potential? A more profitable investment to make instead?

Let's hear your thoughts on the Mo. The one that operates in foreign lands. The MoFo, if you will.

8 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On January 28, 2010 at 9:30 PM, Option1307 (29.99) wrote:

Let's hear your thoughts on the Mo. The one that operates in foreign lands. The MoFo, if you will.

Ha, love it!

I'm a big fan of MO/PM and own them both, and plan on it for a long long time. However I think buying them now basically depends on your overall market outlook. They both have rallied some 40-50% since the march lows. So if you are expecting a pullback like I am, then wait for a better entry point.

But then again, these companies are not going away for a long time. So you could always buy now and just pick up the dividend while you wait. 

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#2) On January 28, 2010 at 10:29 PM, FleaBagger (28.26) wrote:

Aren't these low-beta enough not to worry about overall market pullbacks? I thought PM might be a low-beta way of trouncing the market (and inflation) over the next 5-10 years, while protecting wealth from currency risks.

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#3) On January 28, 2010 at 11:30 PM, Option1307 (29.99) wrote:

Aren't these low-beta enough not to worry about overall market pullbacks?

Not necessarily, look at what they did during the crash. The S&P lost ~50% from March 08 to March 09. MO/PM lost ~40% in this time period as well. So ya, they performed better than a lot of other companies, but they still got killed.

As long as you are planning on holding long term, I don't think you can really go wrong with either. PM should do especially well in an inflationary environment simply b/c of the international factor. However, if we do get a significant pullback, I'd expect these to pullback as well. Maybe not as much as the other crap out there like banks/etc. but they will still retreat.

I think the overall market is boarderline overvalued right now, so I am not adding to any positions. But that is just my opinion, and besides, I already hold a lot of each.

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#4) On January 28, 2010 at 11:47 PM, jonpunski (< 20) wrote:

Good post, I'm long both on my CAPS. I hope to get into PM in real life within the next few weeks and holding for the next few decades.

 

If the chinese government starts allowing non-government-manufactured cigarettes into the country PM will prosper. 

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#5) On January 29, 2010 at 3:14 AM, RainierMan (76.02) wrote:

Don't do it.

Ugly chart.

Half the revenue from W. Europe; mature market.

They're in China, but unlikely to be a market really open to foreign firms soon.

Economic downturn in foreign economies could move buyers away from their premium brands. 

Other reasons, but....why? So many companies out there. But this? How about make money and NOT help kill people.  

 

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#6) On January 29, 2010 at 11:10 AM, chk999 (99.97) wrote:

I would vote for PM over MO, simply because the anti-smoking movement in the US will continue to gain traction. You could wait until PM stops making new 52 week lows to jump in. (We will have a pull back at some point although how big is a who knows. The price drop is probably worth waiting for.)

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#7) On January 29, 2010 at 2:33 PM, FleaBagger (28.26) wrote:

@chk999: I'm not sure if I understand you correctly. Are you implying that it is soon going to start making new 52-wk lows? Because it's more than 25% higher than its 52-wk low now. If it starts making new 52-wk lows and then stops, I'll jump in.

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#8) On January 29, 2010 at 2:39 PM, starbucks4ever (98.13) wrote:

One can do worse than buying PM. But I would stock with MO.

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