November 06, 2009
– Comments (13) |
RELATED TICKERS: GTN
It looks to me, GTN is a die hard garbage...
Good short term call on SRZ, but I see you ended it. Probably a good move. Hope you had real money in it for the time it was in your picks.
Not sure what your blog on GTN is about. Did you send it before you intended?
Have a good evening.
No, the post was short on purpose.
A lot of people called GTN garbage, but I fell in love with it...
I was wrong about it for a while, but it looks like GTN just refuses to die...
How has it refused to die? In the past 6 weeks its down almost 50% and hit 80 something cents the other day. We're simply preparing for its funeral services...
I am in SRZ for long. I believe it's value would increase once real estate starts going up. Am I mistaken???
So 35 years ago a finance professor told me..."Don't get too wrapped up in the numbers when looking for a stock candidate to buy-because good numbers translate into bonuses and bad numbers don't-and company officers put down the numbers...however...current total assets divided by current total liabilities is tough to fudge...when it's 1 or greater, things are just fine...when it's 1.5 or greater, things are really good...when it's less than 1 things are not good...and when it's less than .50 things are lousy and the company will most likely need to borrow lots of money to survive.
That advice has been an excellent "screen" for a long time. (for me)
Ultra, a worthless stock up 40% in five days is showing signs of one refusing to die, whether it has any value or not. So I think that part of Dragon's equation is valid. Mr. Market is willing to come back to the trash multiple times as risk aversion, (or stupidity) is all over the map. I don't think it's ready for the funeral services either, but something on long term critical care is not something to be impressed about as a long term investment, only one where you take foolish peoples money if they don't want it anymore.
Bothissellhigher, Drazon doesn't put much into his picks around fundamentals. It's mostly a theory he developed on the last recession based on volume spikes and past share stock price. I agree that volume spikes will point out a company that Mr. Market is willing to take excessive risk on to try to win a lottery ticket and in rare cases might be one "overly" beaten down, but it doesn't bode well for long term investing. It may win out on some if the company recovers, but past performance is not always good data against a recovery years later if the company didn't adapt or got hurt too badly in the recession. I like your model much better. Dragon's model doesn't require diving the books, looking at fundamentals, etc, and is one model that some people use who don't want to look at fundamentals. If he finds it useful then that's his thesis. I'm finding some merits in using it as a screen for deeper analysis, but it's not a good stand alone screen without following up diving into the current fundamentals. Thanks for sharing your screen!!
I just know one thing: Everybody will love GTN when it hits $12...but they will be very,very late... :)
Yesterday, GTN was up another 11%...
TSIF, I agree your fundamental analysis and my chartology could do wonders.
Maybe we should create a portfolio together... :)
It looks like GTN is not doing so well today... kinda pail...
Is there a doctor in the house?
I bought gtn at $1.40ish and sold at 2.08, 2.18..rebought in at $1.29 the other day. I have limit orders in for 1.28, because when the dollar corrects, i think it will go back to that price.
I'm also eyeing AOB, FUQI, TYC, and a few others.
Hey dragonlz, do you think GTN will get back to $3.00 anytime soon? Or do you think it is finally going to die?
As so far I was wrong about GTN, I don't think I should be making any more predictions about it (or in other words, nobody should be listening to what I say). GTN really hasn't been behaving as I was expecting it to behave.
I still think GTN is not going to die, but I don't know if that's just a hope (so that I'm not completely proven wrong) or a meaningful thought.
Here are a few of (my) facts (but no predictions):
- Even after it's 60% drop since 9/22/09, GTN is still more than 150% up than were it was just 3 months ago.
60% drop is not a good thing, but 150% return in 3 months is not too bad either.
- It's not unusual for a garbage (read: highly speculative) stock to drop 60% after being up 500% in a matter of weeks.
- It is not unusual for stocks like GTN (a stock on life support) to not move anywhere for a quarter or two (even when the rest of the market goes up).
- It is not unusual for a stock like GTN to go up to $3-4 after not going anywhere for a quarter or two.
- It is not unusual for a stock like GTN to die.
Disclaimer: Currently, I do not own (and I'm not planning on getting some as of now) shares of GTN. However, I do keep an eye on it...
GTN is $2.04 today, and I know I'm not supposed to gamble on GTN any more.
However, I just have to say that it looks to me like GTN might be a $3 stock soon.
Disclaimer: I've been wrong before...