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BigFatBEAR (31.26)

Happy 2012! Help me audit my CAPS-inspired nest eggs!

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11

January 03, 2012 – Comments (7) | RELATED TICKERS: NEST , EGN , EXAM

Greetings Fools,

Welp, it's that time again, time to wake up in a haze of spinning, trying hard to remember the details of excesses from days past, and take control of ones' future!!! (however timidly)

So, with that in mind, I was hoping the CAPS community could give old Neil here a bit of help by scrutinizing the toxic waste that is sitting my Roth IRA currently (and likely for many years to come).

The premise of my Roth: Social Security is a relic of the past, 401ks are lame (though I do have one), so this is pretty much it as far as retiring in style goes. I'm 29, and am looking to hold quality dividend growth stocks for the next 40 years or more. I dislike frequent trading - I'm bad at the timing, get stressed, and dislike the commissions costs. So, LTBH it is for me. I'm in grad school, desperately trying to improve my career prospects, but right now I earn 20k a year and live in Colorado's most expensive city, The People's Republic of Boulder.

Without further ado, let's get this show started:

BP - 25% of total

ESV - 16%

LXP - 12.5%

LLY - 10%

COP - 7.5%

INTC - 5%

cash - 4.5%

GLW - 4.2%

TOT - 4%

WNR - 3.2%

TNP - 2.5%

CVX - 2.5%

EMR - 2.3%

CATO - 0.7%

SMSI - 0.6% 

 

As you can see, I'm VERY long on the market - 95.5% long in fact! I'm also very bullish on the following sectors: energy, tech, and healthcare. I see the developed world getting very old, very addicted to mobile tech, and very addicted to oil. And of course, the developing world is mostly following in our footsteps, as quickly as they can.

I think the average yield on my portfolio is around 3.5%, but many of these companies are growing dividends, so my yield on cost should rise nicely over the years. I reinvest dividends in almost all of the positions.

Most of my stocks have appreciated slightly since buying, a few have appreciated handsomely. The only real stinker of my portfolio so far has been TNP, which I've held very stubbornly and only recently sold some of my shares. It'll either rebound like crazy in a few years, or head to the toilet. I'm keeping a small position just because I'm interested to see how it plays out.

Some might argue that my position in BP is too large, but keep in mind my portfolio is only 3ish years old, so still quite small. I don't plan on adding to it much, but if the company can keep recovering well, and increases its dividend back to pre-spill levels, I'll be doing quite nicely.

 

My 401k is roughly half the size of my Roth IRA, but has been growing nicely thanks to the employer match. It's 81% domestic stocks, 16% international stocks, and 3% bonds, all in Vanguard mutual funds. My 401k is also very very long, given my view of the market and my age.  

Any thoughts appreciated, and here's to a prosperous and interesting 2012!

Fool on,

Neil

7 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On January 03, 2012 at 2:28 PM, BigFatBEAR (31.26) wrote:

Oh yeah, I almost forgot, the icing on the cake:

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#2) On January 04, 2012 at 11:27 AM, anchak (99.85) wrote:

Neil....

If you asked me - I would tell you to conserve capital and redeploy in 6months ....but since you are in LTBH mode ....and have lots of time - then its OK.

 

In order for getting some bang for your buck - keep all future inflows into a mix of Bonds and Money Market -for the next few months and wait for a deep discounted situation - and start deploying it in a 2x or 3x multiple way - or if it crashes - go all the way in

 

Best

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#3) On January 04, 2012 at 4:09 PM, MegaShort (99.96) wrote:

I think it might be OK to put 25% into your best idea, but ~60% in energy companies seems excessive.  Why do you own 4 different oil majors - BP, TOT, CVX and COP?

LXP has a lot of debt, have you looked at other real estate companies like FUR or HHC?

Unlike oil majors I think you might want more diversification in pharmaceuticals since they are more diverse and unpredictable.  Have you looked at AZN, GILD or TEVA in addition to LLY?

Financial companies were beaten down in 2011 and could rebound this year.  How about BRK-B?  It has very good risk/reward with a historically low valuation and a big share buyback program in place.

I also own shares of INTC and GLW.  If you're very bullish on technology you might want more than 9% allocation?

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#4) On January 05, 2012 at 2:11 AM, BigFatBEAR (31.26) wrote:

Anchak and MegaShort,

Thanks for your replies, sorry I'm just now getting to them.

Owning multiple oil majors: yeah, I should probably cut back, but I just don't see any other companies that are as likely to make a killing in the next few years AND distribute that killing back to shareholders. Owning these guys is similar to holding a lot of XLE, but lets me still get to feel like a "stockpicker" if you will. I think I'll probably keep my COP, CVX and BP, but will sell my TOT once I can do so at a gain.

Other REITs: I should probably look into them, if at least to just compare. HHC doesn't offer a dividend, so it's not super-attractive to me. FUR appears to have less debt than LXP, but the long-term technicals are also quite troubling. LXP has also been aggressively paying down debt over the last few years. I bought this partially on Jakila's confident pitch.

Other pharma: I REALLY like TEVA, and will probably buy some fairly soon. ABT and JNJ are always nice, too. I like other aging healtcare plays as well, such as ENSG. Hadn't heard of AZN before, but I really like it at initial glance.

Finance: BRK-B looks OK, though I worry about the stock post-Buffet. I wish it had a dividend. You say it has a very good risk:reward, what's your upside valuation look like? Doesn't seem like it'll top $90 any time soon to me...

Tech: I'd like to add more INTC, may also consider buying ORCL or GOOG this year, especially if the market slides a lot. Gotta cozy up with that cash and brand power. ;)

Time for bed, but thanks again, gents.

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#5) On January 06, 2012 at 10:26 PM, JakilaTheHun (99.94) wrote:

Other REITs: I should probably look into them, if at least to just compare. HHC doesn't offer a dividend, so it's not super-attractive to me. FUR appears to have less debt than LXP, but the long-term technicals are also quite troubling. LXP has also been aggressively paying down debt over the last few years. I bought this partially on Jakila's confident pitch.

 

I'm actually rather neutral on LXP at this point.  I exited the stock sometime in early '11.  I don't see a huge upside any more.  It was quite attractive in early '09 when the price was dirt cheap, but at this point, it's average.  

FUR and HHC are much better picks right now IMO.  Of course, the downside to HHC is that it's a growth stock, not a dividend-producing stock.  It's a long-term bet on mixed-use, urban real estate. 

As far as dividend producers go, I like CODI right now.  It's essentially a publicly-traded private equity firm, with considerable growth prospects.  The dividend is huge.  Think the market has been overreacting to the CEO's temporary departure back in last February.

Lots of risks with the oil majors, as well. 

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#6) On January 11, 2012 at 7:19 PM, BigFatBEAR (31.26) wrote:

Jakila,

Thanks for chiming in too, I really appreciate your updated thoughts!

I'll likely take some chips off the table if the market gets much above 1350, maybe going back to ~25% cash.

Problem is, almost everything looks high by historical standards right now - bonds, gold, silver, etc. So might be sitting on that cash for a while til something juicy pops up.

Will look at CODI soon. Would be interested to hear thoughts about risky oil majors...

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#7) On January 12, 2012 at 4:20 AM, JakilaTheHun (99.94) wrote:

Jim  Chanos, is short-selling Exxon right now; maybe a few others.  The thesis is that they are having to spend so much to replace their current reserves, that it makes current earnings look very deceiving.

This isn't really bearish for oil, so much as it's bearish for oil majors, and bullish for a few niche companies involved in oil and gas discovery and extraction. We've already seen this play out some, with XOM having to pay a small fortune to buy XTO. 

Unfortunately, I'm not so sure that I'm that good at picking out the winners in this realm.  I have a few small oil and gas bets, including SD and GMXR ... but I don't have a whole lot of confidence behind those picks.  Wish I understand that space a bit better than I do. 

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