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shamapant (< 20)

Happy Holidays-Things to think about



December 23, 2011 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: ATPAQ.DL , AAPL , GLW

Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year to all of you!

I kind of feel bad about the sort of abandonment of my CAPS blog that occurred when my TMF Blog Network blog opened up. It was bound to happen, but what a tragedy.  

Just to make this holiday extra special, I am going to make a bunch of predictions here. Its always nice to make predictions in bunches so in 6 months I can be the CNBC analyst.."I was right on every count, I just forgot to mention the other half of my predictions which were wrong."

 So here we are,  My Predictions: 

1. ATP Oil and Gas will FINALLY get its footing. There will be a gigantic short squeeze and the stock will fly. Im actually in the process of synthezing 30 articles of controversy on this, so il be blogging about that in the near future. Actual price target tho? $20. 

2. Apple's dividend policy has bugged investors and the general media for a while. With Tim Cook at the helm, we find a more open minded CEO on the idea of an apple dividend. On the other hand, there are two things about a normal dividend policy that would be out of wack:

a) It would be admitting defeat. Apple is the 'next bit thing', and it is also the 'current big thing,' a normal dividend policy would be saying..ok..our growth is declining, we are maturing, the law of big numbers has defeated us. Not the most upbeat statement to the world.

b) Steve Jobs hated the idea, probably for the reasons above. I'v heard he layed out his plans for the future of Apple...I'm guessing he had ideas on the dividend policy as well, and that hopefully his ideas will mimic mine. Actual Prediction: Apple will use a one time special dividend to distribute cash to investors, and create real returns. This allows Apple to give investors satisfaction and stay a growth based company. Much like what Cabot microelectronics is doing. 

3. Corning will start to fly as institutions recognize that which every fool has already acknowledged...undervaluation. Also Corning has about $1.2 in current asset value over total liabilities, giving Corning about 10% of its market cap in pure cash/recievables/inventory/etc. value. Prediction: I see Corning at $20-$25 next year.  

4.Vale will see the $30's again. 

5.A portfolio of DCIX, SDRL, and SBRA with equal weighting(dividend yielding portfolio of 10.4%) will beat the market. Soundly. Why? Look for Teacherman1's articles on DCIX, TMFRoyal's Rising Star articles on SBRA, and make your own judgement on SDRL. -Teacherman...did you see the news?DCIX is buying more ships! dividend raise?  

6. AMR will go bankrupt...not much of a prediction, just some easy accuracy points for this blog. 

7.Free Scale Semiconductor Holdings will breach $17. Technical Analysis- 

8. Neostem Inc, which burned me this year(down 60%) will rise again. Price target $2.20 -note that target was pure speculation and based on market psych rather than value.  

9.  Medco Health Solutions will be a brilliant investment from here on out. Price Target $60+ -Why? Excellent valuation on its own, and of course if the merger goes through it will be valued much higher. So I guess this is a merger arbitrage play, but a very very nice risk/reward profile.

 10. Finally, to end it. Obama will be reelected and the market will be up at least 10% from where it is now by the end of 2012. 

10a) I will be ranked solidly in the all-star range by that time.

Merry Holidays! 


1 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On December 24, 2011 at 8:15 PM, Teacherman1 (< 20) wrote:

Merry Christmas Nikhil.

Yes, I saw that purchase by DCIX and made a comment on my CAPS page.

It is positive, but until we know how the purchase was structered, it is hard to know exactly how much, if any it will add to the dividend.

I am going to go back and look at the DSX earnings call. I think they mentioned something about using a combination of cash and credit to leverage their ability to purchase new vessels. Since they have the same management, I expect they will do something similar.

I hope you and your family are enjoying this nasty wet weather we are having? It's not snow, but it gives a bit of winter like feel for the holidays.

Enjoy your time off from "work" :)

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