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Harnessing Volatility & More Random Musings

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September 29, 2010 – Comments (10) | RELATED TICKERS: NTWK , WMT , ARNA

I figure that it will probably be easiest to continue to post links to my Motley Fool articles here as well. People apparently want articles/blogs from me and my blog is one place to look for a history of all of those articles. I recently did a write up on using beta to your advantage which can be found here.

Now for some random musings...

I know its brutally early, in fact just over a week in to be exact, but the UltraChina portfolio of 185 companies is up 500 points on nearly 60% accuracy, somewhat reminiscent of how quickly things jumped off the March 9th lows in the US. I haven't seen a definitive bottom there in many stocks, but some are having violent upside reactions largely because of their inexpensive valuations. Volume is picking up and traders are taking notice to some of these Chinese names.

Hi-Ho Netsol Technologies! This is a company that should easily be worth $2.60-$2.80 based on my fundamentals, although I don't expect it all in one run though it sure seems like that so far. Nine months ago I called Netsol to $2.60 within a 12-15 month time frame. So far it is up approximately 100% since that call and it has another 70% to go from here. I think it's very possible this will happen and for those trigger happy people I suggest you hold on for a bumpy ride.

How in the hell did Blockbuster manage to survive until last week in the first place? They should have saved us all the trouble and filed for bankruptcy protection four years ago.

Why can't I have normal access to trading Rhodium? I can go out and buy physical gold, trade the stocks or play the ETF's. I can also do this with Platinum and Palladium. My favorite metals though are a real pain in the butt to play. Rhodium, Molybdenum (yes I know..General Moly) and Vanadium...I want to trade them but I have no real access to them outside of futures... very weak guys. Hey Goldman...get to work on it...now!

In true DragonLz fashion.... didn't I tell you Arena Pharmaceuticals would throw up all over itself? Yes I did....

Consumer confidence numbers stunk... as in pee-you! We're rallying now but I continue to look for the market indexes to range mostly through the end of the year. I maintain that we'll end the year with the Dow just a shade over 10,000. Did you say housing continues to tick lower...wait, I need to go look in the mirror so I have my surprised face just right.

Media....Wal*Mart hasn't been a growth story since 1995 so please stop treating it like one. Owning Wal*Mart makes sense if you want to outpace inflation by half a percent a year.

Finally.... my cats are getting pretty fat. That has nothing to do with investing but it has everything to do with why I have four eyes staring at me while I eat a Krispy Kreme Chocolate Iced Kreme Filled Doughnut.

UltraLong

 

10 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On September 29, 2010 at 8:00 AM, lemoneater (78.23) wrote:

Good morning, Ultra.

What kind of cats do you have? I have a brown/black tabby with a white face. His "official" name is "Lord Peter Wimsey", but he is otherwise known as "Mr. Kitty."

SCCO produces Moly as a side product of their other mining. I consider it a bonus.

Have a good day!

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#2) On September 29, 2010 at 9:18 AM, GabrielSevrs (26.37) wrote:

Blockbuster was technically bankrupt a few years ago. But the bank didnt want to run the company, so they let Blockbuster continue to run itself in the hope the people who "knew" the business could turn it around. Bad choice.

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#3) On September 29, 2010 at 9:46 AM, russiangambit (29.42) wrote:

> Consumer confidence numbers stunk... as in pee-you! We're rallying now but I continue to look for the market indexes to range mostly through the end of the year

Yes, that was an intresting turn around yeasterday. I explain it by dollar movements. Now why would Euro to be so strong against the dolalr I have no idea.

Some people are floating the idea that FED's purchases ( the mini-QE) are driving the market on some days. But I think the correlation if any is indirect via the intrest rates and currency markets. I don't know it 10% rally in September can be attributed just to that.

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#4) On September 29, 2010 at 10:12 AM, EnigmaDude (88.53) wrote:

I agree with you that the US market will probably move generally sideways from here thru the end of the year.  The Nov elections will probably just increase volatility more than anything.

You do seem to have good timing on the Chinese picks!

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#5) On September 29, 2010 at 11:53 AM, SN3165 (< 20) wrote:

Ultra, check out CHGS to add to you ultrachina portfolio... the ticker was just added

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#6) On September 29, 2010 at 5:29 PM, Stephmon (36.62) wrote:

NTWK is "the one that got away" from me, I'm afraid. I had a limit order set, missed it by a cent. Moved the limit up a bit, missed it again and suddenly, it's up 100%. These are the lessons... Up until now, CR was my most regrettable. Worse, because I bought at $14 only to let it go, in order to consolidate into other non-stellar stocks.

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#7) On September 29, 2010 at 11:05 PM, JenkemLover (24.48) wrote:

fat cats are the best kind of cats

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#8) On September 30, 2010 at 12:25 AM, Monkeylochs (< 20) wrote:

Ultralong, good work.

Any updates or thoughts on the following:

KAZ, HEAT,TNDM, HQS,??

Buy more or hold.

thanks,

Monkeylochs

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#9) On September 30, 2010 at 12:25 AM, Monkeylochs (< 20) wrote:

Ultralong, good work.

Any updates or thoughts on the following:

KAZ, HEAT,TNDM, HQS,??

Buy more or hold.

thanks,

Monkeylochs

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#10) On September 30, 2010 at 5:06 PM, TigerPack1 (96.74) wrote:

I think CAPS should rename this blog, "The UltraLong Chronicles."

Keep Tigers away from donuts, those kitty's have a nasty bite!

10,000 Dow by yearend seems quite optimistic to me, are you turning soft?  You may be "glazing" over reality a little with that prediction.  Too much sugar can do that to a man.  9,000 may be more accurate, and a little shocking for the wishful dreamers who have bought BEN's CON, hook, line and sinker (stinker).

-TigerPack

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