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TheDumbMoney (38.50)

Heads-up to Technical People Re: Sodastream

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6

February 06, 2012 – Comments (11) | RELATED TICKERS: SODA

If Sodastream closes above about $42.82 in the next couple of days, that would take out the 9/14/2011 high after this summer's collapse.  Technical people may drive it higher at that point, possibly well over $50/share.  There also appears to have been some serious buying going on in this company, possibly in ancticipation of holiday numbers, or else it is just as a yearly reallocation by people into 2011 underperformers such as microcaps.  Stock is up 30%ish YTD.  Recent volume is not high though, which is bearish.

Please keep in mind, I don't know what the hey I'm talking about with regard to technicals.  It is interesting to watch them.  I initiated at $41.70 after the collapse this summer, and upped my position by 133% when it got down to $28.50.  For me this is a long-term hold, by which in the context of a microcap I mean a minimum of three years, unless my thesis gets annihilated before that time.

All best,

DTAF

11 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On February 06, 2012 at 6:57 PM, HarryCarysGhost (99.69) wrote:

http://www.freestockcharts.com/

I'd wait...

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#2) On February 06, 2012 at 7:44 PM, TheDumbMoney (38.50) wrote:

Harry, I can't see that because I'm not a subscriber. You would need to post an image, or explain it without posting it.

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#3) On February 06, 2012 at 10:45 PM, HarryCarysGhost (99.69) wrote:

Sorry about that DTAF. Hmmm... I 'm not a subscriber either. My Sister-in- Law the day trader showed me the website and put it on my favorites. Just assumed everyone else would be able to view the link.

Basically the Stochastics chart was at 78.53 almost at the top of the green line signalling a sell. If it were at the red line (closer to 20) it would signal a buy. (note I don't rely on charts for my real life investments. It is interesting to watch though)

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#4) On February 06, 2012 at 10:54 PM, fdfpro (< 20) wrote:

ah thinking about technicals as a value investor hcg?

(disclaimer: long term bearish on SODA)

the short to mid term technicals on SODA actually look great. Reverse head and shoulder breakout with volume. RSI gaining momentum and macd crossover. Looks like it could whirl up to 55 after a pullback.

Or it could not because it sucks.  

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#5) On February 06, 2012 at 11:16 PM, HarryCarysGhost (99.69) wrote:

fdfpro

We shall see.... : )

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#6) On February 06, 2012 at 11:29 PM, awallejr (85.43) wrote:

I can only base my opinion on past  experience.  This type of system was tried decades ago.  Same concept, save money.  The problem is as kids they want convenience, not savings.  They want the open the frig and grab the can than waste time making the stuff. I haven't tried this company's product, but the old ones went flat fast.

Maybe times have changed and the product won't just be another fad like 3D movies.

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#7) On February 22, 2012 at 7:51 PM, TheDumbMoney (38.50) wrote:

So this was totally wrong.  Luckly I don't trade on technicals!

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#8) On February 23, 2012 at 3:54 PM, awallejr (85.43) wrote:

Just curious DTAF, do you actually own the product?

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#9) On February 24, 2012 at 3:32 PM, TheDumbMoney (38.50) wrote:

OK, maybe I was right.  It breached $42.82 today and then went super higher.  Earnings report is on 2/29, so this is likely related either to optimism (maybe misplaced, maybe not) or postive inside information leaking out.

awallejr, yes I own the product, though this is a case of buying the product after buying the shares.  I recognize all of the dings on this business model, the risks, the history, etc.  For my wife and I it really works out, because my wife is an inveterate bubbly-water drinker.  As in: it's just about all she drinks besides coffee and tea.  This thing has cut out tons of 2-liter plain sparkling water bottle purchases for us.  We used to buy three to five per week.  The CO2 canisters really seem to last for a long, long time, even when we choose the 'high-carbonation' setting.

All of the flavors I have tried (we got the 12-flavor mini-pack) I have liked, except the Diet Cola flavor.  (The energy drink flavor in particular is a total dead-ringer for the brand name energy drinks.)  We also use the Raspberry flavor essence quite a bit.  I'm not committed enough to any flavor of soda yet to buy a whole bottle of anything else.  (Am I really going to drink that many bottles of Dr. Pepper substitute, even though I like it?  Etc.)  I think it works best for people who previously drank a lot of sparkling water either plain or with mild flavor essences.  Or for people who are obsessed with one flavor of soda.  I know a guy who only drinks orange soda.  That's it.  If it ain't orange soda, it ain't soda.  He would be an ideal customer.  Same for my wife and I as plaint/flavor essence sparkling water drinkers.  The actual machines are over-priced for what they are: cheap plastic molded to look nice, with virtually no moving parts, and no electronics other than a battery-operated gauge of remaining carbonation (on the model we got).

I have blogged about SODA fairly extensively on other people's posts, and put links on my pitch.

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#10) On February 28, 2012 at 7:48 PM, TheDumbMoney (38.50) wrote:

SODA has closed above its 200DMA for the second time in its history as a publicly traded stock.  Call volume today out of control -- either from earnings optimists, or b/c of hedging shorts.  Tomorrow is the 2011 earnings report.  Short interest remains sky high.  This thing is either going to fly or sink like a stone after the report.  I predict a >10% move one way or the other.  Personally, I think they are going to beat expectations, the shorts know it and are hedging their failed positions, and that the move over the last week has been the beginning of a sustained move higher.  But that could just be the optimism of a guy who got long at $41.70 and then more than doubled up at $28.50.  I will be looking to the substance of the report, not to how the market reacts to it one way or the other.  Tomorrow is an exciting day for SODA lovers and haters, the most titanic late-summer drop that, in my view, was the beginning of this buying opportunity.  We shall see though.

All best,

DTAF

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#11) On March 05, 2012 at 11:02 AM, Maiestas (23.24) wrote:

I was highly incredulous of this stock and company until I bought a Sodastream machine; since owning one, it has undoubtedly changed my life.  I do own shares of KO mind you, and do believe you can't argue with the taste and convenience of Coke.  But upon trying this product, my first thought was that I hope KO buys this company, because in the long run, people don't want aspartame, or high fructose corn syrup, or the hassle of lugging all these cans and bottles around.  Am I Sodastream employee? No, I'm just a fool who see's an opportunity to be greedy when others are fearful.  

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