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XMFSinchiruna (26.54)

Heavy Equipment sector call ... 1 year later



October 26, 2009 – Comments (4)

One year after predicting that mining equipment specialists like JOYG and BUCY would outperform their more diversified competitors like TEX and MTW, the outperformance by the specialists has materialized in earnest as diversification transitioned from asset to hindrance in a deeply impaired industrial base.

Recall that a year ago metal prices were extending an already unbelieveable slump, and any prior assumptions about sustainable demand from China and elsewhere to stoke a recovery had abruptly evaporated.

Did I nail this call? You be the judge ... 

For the record, here is a chart of relative share performance among major equipment manufacturers over the past 12 months.


4 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On October 26, 2009 at 4:55 PM, chk999 (99.97) wrote:

Nice call.

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#2) On October 26, 2009 at 6:40 PM, LiveOakGrey (< 20) wrote:

Hi Sinch,

I posted some questions the other day on your blog, "Gold Overload." Maybe Motley could consider having new posts to older blogs, or articles,  sent to the author's home site, to alert them?  If you get a chance, I'd definitely appreciate any insights and input.  Thanks!


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#3) On October 27, 2009 at 9:29 AM, XMFSinchiruna (26.54) wrote:


Actually, what you've just done is the best way to alert me to a comment on an old blog post. :)

I don't own any Australian pm miners, but will look into that and other aspects of your question when I have a moment. If you'd like, you can "Follow" that blog post, and thus be alerted when I respond by that post moving to the top of your list.

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#4) On October 27, 2009 at 10:34 PM, rofgile (99.57) wrote:

In the last 6 months, MTW has performed 108%, BUCY 131%, JOYG 124%. 

When you look YTD, MTW is only 22% vs the hefty gains of nearly 130-150% for BUCY and JOYG.

The 1 year picture is very similar.  

In other words, Sinch - great call!  You were spot-on.  1 year ago, investing in BUCY or JOYG would have been much better. 


The time may come soon where moving from BUCY into MTW may serve you better..  I would wait till after earnings though - who knows if MTW is about to be crushed..  (or should I say, a better buying opportunity is about to appear...)



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