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TMFHelical (98.70)

Helical Port August Update

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September 01, 2011 – Comments (0)

The Helical portfolio has had a very good August.  As the month closed, it stood at just under $59,200, up year to date at ~17.9%.  I'm more than a little stunned it recovered so quickly to near its April highs.  The move to raise cash in June, and redeployment in August have worked out better than could be expected, which makes me nervous.  Right now, I'm about fully invested with a very large position (>15%) in PPDI (bought more since the linked early August buying spree).  PPDI seemed like an appealing, but not certain arbitrage opportunity, as there are indications of a pending buyout announcement, with Carlyle group leading multiple bidders and analysts expecting a $33 to $38 price (we'll see).  What gives me the most confidence is the implicaiton of multiple bidders, so even if Carlyle doesn't work out, someone should be there and hopefully within the range.  Seemed worth adding under $31, especially since I'm a bit uncomfortable in the current market (my lizard brain is telling me to preserve gains I have).

I don't put a lot of weight on technical analysis, though I do occasionally use it in consideration of when to make moves I already intend to do, and/or with shorter term trades (like I did earlier this year with Cerner).   Still, the technicals on the market have me concerned with 200 and 50d EMAs both moving down and prices not able to get back through them.

 http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=3m&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=e50%2Ce200&a=m26-12-9&c=

So, I will consider being either protective with holdings I have or outright raisng cash (which is why I'm not mentioning them).  I don't much care to use stop loss orders, as they always seem to hit and I would have been better off simply selling, but I may selectively consider some (none in place right now).  Should the port drop below $56K, I'll definately be raising cash again.  Last time I raised cash, I tended to sell the low and mid-risk companies, and keep the more speculative holdings on the consideration that they would correlate less to the market overall.  I'm not sure I'd approach it that way again, particularly regarding the developmental drug companies.

TMFHelical

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