Helical Portfolio Q1-2012
Helical Portfolio Q1-2012
The first quarter of 2012 is now behind us and for the majority of investors it saw an impressive increase in account values. The S&P500 gained ~12.5% for the quarter, reportedly the best Q1 since 1998. I suppose we should all be thankful that Greece did not burst into flames (or is that wary). Given my 'start of year' unenthusiastic outlook, I should be cart-wheeling that the Helical Portfolio had risen 20.8% year to date, ending March at $68,011.43. This is a CAGR of 27.6% since the start of 2011 when I began tracking this portfolio (just 15 months agao). I'll be adding money in April, so will have to learn IRR calculations moving forward. Holding these gains through the remainder of 2012 may well prove tricky, and the temptation is certainly there to 'go to cash'.
The account is already down about $1K so far in April, but will stay cautiously invested with the discipline to sell more aggressively should it fall 6% off its 'start-of-month' number (below $64,150 ish). The account stands today with a cash position of $15,434.94 (23%), an increase over the $8,124.86 it had at the end of February update. The cash increase came from two places, plus the $62.95 in combined March dividends from JNJ and WLP.
On 3/13 I sold out of my position in Seattle Genetics (150sh for $2,827.94). The company may have a relatively light market for its antibody conjugate drug Adcetris (Brentuximab vedotin) which gained initial approval last year. While the company remains a potentially an attractive takeover candidate, it was my lowest confidence position at a time when raising cash was deemed desirable. The holding was successful, originally bought on 12/23/2010 for $2,366.49, a gain of ~19.5% in a bit over a year. Of course both SGEN and Rochester Medical (sold in February) are higher today than when sold, but I'm content with more cash and having made money with both.
The other sale to raise cash was a partial position in Wellpoint (which delayed this update due to trading restrictions). I noted that after listening to the Supreme Court hearing regarding the affordable care act and insurance mandate it contains my desire to cut back on this position. Long term the insurance industry should fare well, so I'd be happy with an opportunity to increase my holding again here or with another insurer at a better price. Here too this holding was successful. I sold 60 of the 100 shares I held on 4/3/2012 for $4,383.11, bought originally for just $3,855.35 on 12/15/2011, an increase of greater than 13% in just over 3 months.
Today (4/9) the portfolio stands at $67,078.34 and breaks out as follows.
AFAM ALMOST FAMILY 200 share 7.4%
BRLI BIO-REFER..LABS 200 share 6.9%
CAH CARDINAL HEALTH 100 share 6.2%
CVS CVS CORP Cash 100 share 6.6%
GHDX GENOMIC HEALTH 200 share 8.7%
HCN HEALTH CARE REIT 50 share 4.0%
ICLR ICON PLC 300 share 9.7%
JNJ JNJ 60 share 5.8%
MAKO MAKO SURGICAL 200 share 12.6%
MR MINDRAY MEDICAL 100 share 4.9%
WLP WELLPOINT INC 40 share 4.2%
Subjectively assessing risk as previously, I feel exposed as follows:
33.1% High Risk ----------- BRLI, GHDX, MAKO, MR
21.3% Medium Risk ------AFAM, ICLR, WLP
45.6% Low risk--------------Cash, CAH, CVS, HCN, JNJ
As a behavioral investor, I want my risk assessment to show a more pyramidal in structure or at least monolithic as a more aggressively invested portfolio. Should I feel the need to increase more cash (flatten out), I'll likely pull from the higher risk and/or deploy to a more mid risk election. From my subjective assessment at the start of the year, I pushed Wellpoint up from a low to mid risk company, at least while the court deliberates.
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