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TMFHelical (98.70)

Helical Portfolio Q1-2012



April 09, 2012 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: SGEN , WLP , AFAM

Helical Portfolio Q1-2012

The first quarter of 2012 is now behind us and for the majority of investors it saw an impressive increase in account values.  The S&P500 gained ~12.5% for the quarter, reportedly the best Q1 since 1998.  I suppose we should all be thankful that Greece did not burst into flames (or is that wary).  Given my 'start of year' unenthusiastic outlook, I should be cart-wheeling that the Helical Portfolio had risen 20.8% year to date, ending March at $68,011.43.  This is a CAGR of 27.6% since the start of 2011 when I began tracking this portfolio (just 15 months agao).  I'll be adding money in April, so will have to learn IRR calculations moving forward.  Holding these gains through the remainder of 2012 may well prove tricky, and the temptation is certainly there to 'go to cash'. 

The account is already down about $1K so far in April, but will stay cautiously invested with the discipline to sell more aggressively should it fall 6% off its 'start-of-month' number (below $64,150 ish).  The account stands today with a cash position of $15,434.94 (23%), an increase over the $8,124.86 it had at the end of February update.  The cash increase came from two places, plus the $62.95 in combined March dividends from JNJ and WLP.

On 3/13 I sold out of my position in Seattle Genetics (150sh for $2,827.94).  The company may have a relatively light market for its antibody conjugate drug Adcetris (Brentuximab vedotin) which gained initial approval last year.  While the company remains a potentially an attractive takeover candidate, it was my lowest confidence position at a time when raising cash was deemed desirable.  The holding was successful, originally bought on 12/23/2010 for $2,366.49, a gain of ~19.5% in a bit over a year.  Of course both SGEN and Rochester Medical (sold in February) are higher today than when sold, but I'm content with more cash and having made money with both.

The other sale to raise cash was a partial position in Wellpoint (which delayed this update due to trading restrictions).  I noted that after listening to the Supreme Court hearing regarding the affordable care act and insurance mandate it contains my desire to cut back on this position.  Long term the insurance industry should fare well, so I'd be happy with an opportunity to increase my holding again here or with another insurer at a better price.  Here too this holding was successful.  I sold 60 of the 100 shares I held on 4/3/2012 for $4,383.11, bought originally for just $3,855.35 on 12/15/2011, an increase of greater than 13% in just over 3 months.

Today (4/9) the portfolio stands at $67,078.34 and breaks out as follows.

Cash                                                                 23.0%

AFAM    ALMOST FAMILY       200 share          7.4%

BRLI      BIO-REFER..LABS     200 share          6.9%

CAH      CARDINAL HEALTH   100 share          6.2%

CVS      CVS CORP Cash        100 share          6.6%

GHDX   GENOMIC HEALTH    200 share          8.7%

HCN      HEALTH CARE REIT   50 share           4.0%

ICLR      ICON PLC                  300 share           9.7%

JNJ        JNJ                               60 share           5.8%

MAKO   MAKO SURGICAL      200 share         12.6%

MR        MINDRAY MEDICAL   100 share          4.9%

WLP      WELLPOINT INC          40 share           4.2%

Subjectively assessing risk as previously, I feel exposed as follows:

33.1% High Risk ----------- BRLI, GHDX, MAKO, MR

21.3% Medium Risk ------AFAM, ICLR, WLP

45.6% Low risk--------------Cash, CAH, CVS, HCN, JNJ

As a behavioral investor, I want my risk assessment to show a more pyramidal in structure or at least monolithic as a more aggressively invested portfolio.  Should I feel the need to increase more cash (flatten out), I'll likely pull from the higher risk and/or deploy to a more mid risk election.  From my subjective assessment at the start of the year, I pushed Wellpoint up from a low to mid risk company, at least while the court deliberates.



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