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TMFBlacknGold (98.93)

Hello Delisting!

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August 03, 2011 – Comments (2) | RELATED TICKERS: NBY

NovaBay has been freefalling since it reported failed Phase II data for treatment of adenoviral conjunctivitis with NVC-422. While I do not think it was a very big deal (it is by far their smallest focus - dermatology, ophthalmology, urology, and hospital infections), apparently other investors aren't so confident. If they can show encouraging data for their other Phase II trials (expected by year's end) then they almost have to recover some of their value. A market cap of $20 mln would just be ridiculous. Time is not on their side however, as they face delistment by November 2nd if they cannot post 10 consecutive days of closing over $1.00. That seems almost impossible to avoid at this point.

Right now I'm going to wait and see how things go. If they can get their house in order and post successful data, then I expect this company to be a mainstay in biotech talk. With the growing problem of microbial resistance the rewards greatly outweigh the risks (although I will not invest any more money until I see the rest of their Phase II trials).

Best case scenario: trials are successful through December 2012 and NBY becomes a nice little rocketship. Worst case scenario: December 2012 comes along, and you'll ask me "NovaBay who?" (they'll be bankrupt).

2 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On September 07, 2011 at 7:59 AM, mhy729 (34.63) wrote:

Yeah, this one has surely been hurting badly.  I'm still holding on to my shares (not too large a position, but 40% down is still 40% down).  Lucky for me my portfolio's unrealized loss is only around 5% (managed to lock in some good gains last year, with some modest gains for 2011, so factoring those in gives me a piddling annualized gain over two years of about 5%).  My DNDN holdings got smashed, and in hindsight I was an ass for not selling some before the recent slaughter (I bought as a spec play before the Provenge approval, so I'm still up from my cost basis, but a massive amount of those gains are now gone).  Greed bites me in the arse yet again.

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#2) On January 25, 2013 at 10:08 AM, TMFBlacknGold (98.93) wrote:

To investors just stumbling on these blog posts: PLEASE IGNORE. I wrote these before I new virtually anything about investing. Don't invest on hope. 

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