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alstry (< 20)

HELP ME!!!!--Alstry needs HELP!!!!



June 24, 2008 – Comments (6)

Dow just announced today that they are raising prices 25% after raising prices 20% just a few weeks ago.  Dow makes a lot of stuff and input materials such as fertilizer, adhesives, plastics, and insulation.  Dow is only one of a number of companies that have announced extraordinary price increases in the past few weeks.

While prices are rising, businesses are rushing to shut down.  Autos, Airlines, Construction, Banking, and Chemical to name a few.  Income and revenues are starting to evaporate as well.

For the first time in our nations history, costs are rising parabolicly and incomes are contracting.  In the seventies stagflation, incomes rose at a slower rate than prices and then when spouses joined the incomes exceeded the rise in the cost of living.

Now it is the opposite, incomes falling and prices rising.  As a result, assets are crashing in value as well as fewer and fewer people can afford to maintain assets such as second homes, boats, ect.....

In the last few days we have received very negative reports from DOW, UPS, GM, UAL, KMX, just to name a few.  In a few days we are likely to get reports from homebuilders telling us that they have relatively very little vertical inventory to sell going forward and orders for homes to be built are slowing dramtically.

Economy slowing, wages falling, expenses exploding and debt rising while credit is being shut off...

I am very confused right now, anyone have thoughts on where this is going??????

6 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On June 24, 2008 at 3:11 PM, hansthered0 (< 20) wrote:

This is where we pour the kool-aid into little dixie cups remember?

No seriously though I am starting to bend to your outlook, even though it is somewhat tough for me because I am generally over-optimistic.


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#2) On June 24, 2008 at 3:15 PM, alstry (< 20) wrote:

You think its tough for you, imagine what it is for me?

That said, I really don't need help....but we as a society need to be at least aware of the problem in order to figure out a way to improve it.

It is incredible how few really see the rapid implosion in GDP with the explosion in costs upon the largest pile of debt in human history.

If you belive government data, you think inflation is around 2%.  Tell that to to the customers of DOW who just saw prices rise over 40% in one month.

Again, this is not about crying chicken little, it is simply a reflection of what is actually going on.

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#3) On June 24, 2008 at 4:00 PM, hansthered0 (< 20) wrote:

Sadly I have noticed a decline in sales growth at my own place of work....We were predicting 50% growth on the year and now it looks like were down to about 30%.

I won't mention the name of the company for obvious reasons(I am in management).

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#4) On June 24, 2008 at 4:11 PM, alstry (< 20) wrote:

You will likely start to see revenue shortfalls in a number of industries.

It is silently creeping up upon us.  Again, I am not here to be an alarmist despite my headlines....I am an attorney and trained to focus on the facts and dismiss rhetoric.

Unfortuately for me and my returns, in the short run, rhetoric is a big factor in the the long run it is exposed.

By nature I am an addicted entrepreneur.  For those that are afflicted with the disease, you know what it is as it infests every cell in your body and runs through your bloodstream.  I am blessed to have a very patient wife(a first grade school teacher) to put up with my nonsense.

Our nation is experiencing something it has NEVER experienced before.  The consequences of which can create changes in our government or manner of legal title to goods and services.

I am not sure how this plays out.....but right now I don't like what I see.  In the mean time hopefully I can give you some good ideas for accumlating CAPs points.....after all I only have 7000 more points to go to pull ahead of SpecBear.

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#5) On June 24, 2008 at 4:36 PM, jatade1 (27.76) wrote:

Not to make it even worse for you alstry but the compounded thingy means that DOW has raised prices 50% over the past month.  Assume 100 as the start.  Increase by 20% = 120.  120 increased by 25% = 150.  That makes an total increase of 50%.  Yeppers...the old economy is on the brink with too many hands pushing it the wrong way.  Time to batten down the hatches

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#6) On June 24, 2008 at 5:12 PM, alstry (< 20) wrote:

Actually, just a 40% price rise in a month creates over 500% annual inflation....but clearly that is not sustainable....unless you are living in post WWI Germany or present day Zimbabwe.

But just a 40% percent price shock is incredible....just walk through Target or WalMart and just ask yourself how much of the packaging and goods are chemical based.  Then factor in shipping costs and the cost of just about everything we buy is likely to rise 20% or more in the next year.

It is insane how complacent the "analysts" are with this information.  Then factor the job losses and revenue cut back to our municipalities and maybe that light at the end of the tunnel is not the other side?

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