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SN3165 (< 20)

Here Some Facts About GPL's 2Q

Recs

7

August 16, 2011 – Comments (19) | RELATED TICKERS: GPL , EXK , SLW

 There is a lot being said about GPL right now and the purpose of this post is to clear some things up. After listening to the conference call, my long position in GPL remains unchanged... although, I must admit there ARE some things to take note of... in particular, the higher cash costs at Topia (see #3). 

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***1) Inventory Issues - well, it was obviously the problem here. But it's important to note that the silver not sold in Q2 from Guanajuato will count for Q3 and Q4. Therefore that silver could possibly be sold at higher silver prices. 

"So, of course, what that means for our revenues for Q3 and Q4, is that they will be higher than they normally would be..." Robert Archer in the Q2 conference call.

Revenue should have been approx. $18 million.  instead of the 8 1/2 that was recorded. 

"The company has made arrangements with another mexiacan producer to accept Guanajuato shipments going forward, with the next shipments going out next week."

"We expect to be down to a zero balance by the end of the year," Archer said.

2) "This does not effect production in any way." Fact. Though the lower grades led to lower production. 

3) Higher Cast Costs: Guanajuato - down slightly to $6.32 per silver ounce.

Topia - Unforunately, costs were up significantly to $16.18 per silver ounce. 

Due to combination of higher tons milled and overall higher costs.

4) The recovery stays at excellent levels (90 percent mark) though at lower grades. As grades improve, recovery's will improve in the next quarters. 

5) Someone mentioned that Kaare Foy recently sold their entire stake in the company. I am not positive on this and need to check.

6) "Pump and Dump" accusations - there was an accusation that GPL hired a person to do that. Where is the proof of that? I'm not denying that it's possible that person did it, but to say the company hired that person, is libel. They could have been hired by anyone...

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Looking forward to 3Q - hoping this was just a small bump in the road. Long GPL.

19 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On August 16, 2011 at 4:04 PM, goldminingXpert (30.70) wrote:

5) I posted the proof. Go check at www.canadianinsider.com yourself.

6) I showed proof that the company hired Lebed to pump GPL. Let's keep this simple. We have this from Lebed's website:

:"My firm Lebed Biz LLC was compensated by a third-party (B&D Capital Partners) $20,000 cash for a one-month GPR investor relations contract which has since expired. We could potentially be compensated more for providing investor relations services regarding GPR in the future, although no agreements have been made at this time."

Go to B&D Capital Partners website and you see that GPL is one of their investment clients. Thus GPL's IR partner, B&D Cap, hired Lebed.  

For all the claims around here that I have been launching "character assassinations" against people, it is funny that I am immediately accused of libel (go big or go home!) because you failed to do even a modicum of research to see whether or not my story was accurate. I linked to all relevant facts in my article.

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#2) On August 16, 2011 at 4:10 PM, goldminingXpert (30.70) wrote:

The article I wrote that SN3165 is talking about can be found here. I urge you to read multiple viewpoints about the company and form your own opinion.  

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#3) On August 16, 2011 at 4:24 PM, SN3165 (< 20) wrote:

From user Chancer - "There is a big difference between a "pumped" stock that is all promise and no substance (like a junior explorer without a proven resource) and a producing miner with significant substance (proven high grade miner like GPL)."

I couldn't have said it any better. Though, I am not totally writing you off here, there are certainly still some questions...

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#4) On August 16, 2011 at 4:26 PM, goldminingXpert (30.70) wrote:

and my reply to Chancer, who has a valid point.

Oh, there certainly is some substance at GPL. In the long run, I wouldn't be surprised if the stock goes back over $5. For now though, I think the stock will move to the downside as the hype wears off and investors take a second look at the company and management team. One has to question whether the use of paid sketchy pumpers such as Lebed and then the unbelievably auspicious timing of insider sales at the top were entirely kosher. 

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#5) On August 16, 2011 at 4:37 PM, SN3165 (< 20) wrote:

This is what I'm seeing...

 

 

Jul 06/11 Jul 06/11 Brown, Charles Parsons Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 - Disposition in the public market -50,000 $3.500 Jul 06/11 Jul 06/11 Brown, Charles Parsons Direct Ownership Common Shares 51 - Exercise of options 50,000 $0.700 Jul 06/11 Jul 06/11 Brown, Charles Parsons Direct Ownership Options 51 - Exercise of options -50,000 $0.700

 

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#6) On August 16, 2011 at 4:44 PM, goldminingXpert (30.70) wrote:

You need the historical data, which you have to pay for. They only show the most recent couple of trades for free. I posted a link in my article showing the relevant data from Canadianinsider. You can either buy a report to verify what I linked to, or perhaps you can access it from your library (particularly if you are Canadian). 

Also, you can call GPL Investor Relations and they will verify the sales for you if you wish. 

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#7) On August 16, 2011 at 4:49 PM, dragonLZ (99.34) wrote:

***1) Inventory Issues - well, it was obviously the problem here. But it's important to note that the silver not sold in Q2 from Guanajuato will count for Q3 and Q4. Therefore that silver could possibly be sold at higher silver prices. 

What about possibly being sold at lower silver prices? (Wasn't silver price higher in Q2 vs. Q3, and who knows what will happen in Q4? Mentioning only "possibly higher silver prices" is a hope/opinion, not a fact.

2) "This does not effect production in any way." Fact. Though the lower grades led to lower production. 

Is this supposed to be the good news?

3) Higher Cast Costs: Guanajuato - down slightly to $6.32 per silver ounce.

Topia - Unforunately, costs were up significantly to $16.18 per silver ounce. 

Unfortunately.

4) The recovery stays at excellent levels (90 percent mark) though at lower grades. As grades improve, recovery's will improve in the next quarters. 

How do you know grades will improve? Is that based on facts or is it again just a hope?

5) Someone mentioned that Kaare Foy recently sold their entire stake in the company. I am not positive on this and need to check.

How come you couldn't wait to write this post until you checked? Isn't this like a very important thing?

6) "Pump and Dump" accusations - there was an accusation that GPL hired a person to do that. Where is the proof of that? I'm not denying that it's possible that person did it, but to say the company hired that person, is libel. They could have been hired by anyone...

Yes, they could have been hired by anyone. Kaare Foy also counts as anyone, right? Or you or me? If you don't know the facts, don't try to defend the company.

Defending a company (you have a stake in) with "possibly", "I'm not positive", and "could have been anyone" is not very strong in my opinion.

Disclaimer: Don't have anything personal against the writer of this post. Rec'd many of his posts in the past. I don't own any shares of GPL at this time. Owned them in the past. Currently long AGQ. Kinda sick of people defending a stock with just emotions, not facts. Also sick of people attacking GMX who didn't do anything to deserve that. Unless he's Otto. Or unless nobody has a right to say anything bad about silver and silver mining stocks (especially if they are community favorites), which seems to be the case here on CAPS.

Be patient. Time will tell who's right... Possibly...

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#8) On August 16, 2011 at 4:59 PM, Valyooo (99.81) wrote:

I have been following this little debate and even though I made a lot of $ on GPL, I support GMX...all of the criticism you have been getting over this is basicallyy "LOL I like silver so you are stupid, I don't even have to use logic or refute your points, you dont like silver so youre a noob"

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#9) On August 16, 2011 at 5:05 PM, goldminingXpert (30.70) wrote:

Thanks Dragon for that great reply. Thanks for covering points 1-4 and backing up what I said about the last two.

I also have nothing against the author of this post, I always welcome open debate and discussion, though I agree that you should review the facts as much as possible before defending a company -- particularly to the point of claiming someone else committed libel.

I have no connection to Otto and we live thousands of miles apart. Otto is the blog persona of Mark Hanson, a Brit-expat who has settled down in South America and has covered mining stocks for a long time, first with a bank and now on his own.

I fully agree with Dragon's sentiments in this quote. I couldn't have said it better myself:

 Kinda sick of people defending a stock with just emotions, not facts. Also sick of people attacking GMX who didn't do anything to deserve that. Unless he's Otto. Or unless nobody has a right to say anything bad about silver and silver mining stocks (especially if they are community favorites), which seems to be the case here on CAPS.

Be patient. Time will tell who's right... Possibly...

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#10) On August 16, 2011 at 5:14 PM, SN3165 (< 20) wrote:

1) it is my opinion that silver prices will be higher in the coming quarters. The "fact" presented is that the silver will eventually be sold. And that will show up on their revenue. Just wanted to point that out.

2) Yes, it is. They are still on track to produce 3.8 million SEO in 2012.

3) Yup. Need to dig deeper.

4) Not exactly a fact, so you're right. 

5) I've been looking for it. It doesn't show up on Etrade as someone pointed out (american symbol), and it doesn't show up on that website unless you purchase the report, as Goldxpert pointed out. 

"Isnt this like a very important thing." It's important, but not something that would cause me to sell.

 6) Not denying it. But whatever happened to hearing both sides of the story?  It deserves further investigation..I am also not attacking GMX, or discrediting the claims, just questioning them. I am open ears to all here. 

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#11) On August 16, 2011 at 5:16 PM, goldminingXpert (30.70) wrote:

Correcting my own comment number 9, Otto is the persona of Mark Turner*. Mark Hanson is the foreclosure expert. Sorry for the error.

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#12) On August 16, 2011 at 5:22 PM, goldminingXpert (30.70) wrote:

@comment #10

Hopefully either TMFSinchiruna or some of the people he listed as haven supported him in yesterday's massive 100 Rec blog post will drop in here and offer the other side. 

As of yet, we have heard nothing from any of these folks: Tagit  Frankydontfailme  catoismymotor  AfoolwondersNot  TMFMmbop  MugMugMug Bkeepr100  EvilEmpire  outoffocus  whereaminow  wolfman225

Hopefully they will provide balance and provide reasonable counteraguments to my admittedly biased (as most opinion articles are) post.

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#13) On August 16, 2011 at 5:41 PM, Frankydontfailme (27.34) wrote:

GMX. I feel no necessity to defend the other side. GPL had a disappointing quarter. I am worried about the share price short term. I would not recommend buying more except on extreme weakness. In the long term, if you think silver prices are going higher and many of these concerns about GPL are short term, then you think that the share price will go much higher.

I was defending Sinch because you clearly attacked him personally, even implying that he could be a pumper. You have a valid point about the quarter, but you are saying nothing new. We all read the report. We all understood the weakness. You thought it was necessary to both a) misrepresent the obvious, and b) personally attack Sinch.

And for my own Ad Hominem - You are an attention grabber. Enjoy while it lasts. 

 

 

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#14) On August 16, 2011 at 6:20 PM, goldminingXpert (30.70) wrote:

@comment #13

I understand where you are coming from. I really do. (And what you said about me is not an ad homenim, no worries.)

I did NOT call Sinchy a pumper. Here is the interchange:

Sinchy wrote: hahahaha....

I just clicked to the link to your man Otto's hit-piece. I'll laugh his analysis all the way to the bank with my 375% realized gain on a massive stake in Great Panther started between $0.60 and $0.80 per share. 

To which I wrote:  I'm not calling you a pump & dumper, but it is a bit alarming how cavalierly you blow off the fact that your top silver pick is running an accounting scheme that they slipped by right under your nose.

---

I think we'd agree that it is in poor taste, when a stock's credibility is called into question, that saying "you're wrong cause I already made so much money. Haha!" is not the most diplomatic nor helpful answer.

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#15) On August 17, 2011 at 5:39 PM, XMFSinchiruna (28.54) wrote:

Hey Franky,

Notice the selective copt-and-paste there ... hahaha 

 To which I wrote: I'm not calling you a pump & dumper, but it is a bit alarming how cavalierly you blow off the fact that your top silver pick is running an accounting scheme that they slipped by right under your nose.

"He discovered accounting shenangians which the company fessed up to today, and your response to tout your gains and deny any responsibility for misleading readers? Classic pump & dump tactics there. I'm not calling you a pump & dumper, but it is a bit alarming how cavalierly you blow off the fact that your top silver pick is running an accounting scheme that they slipped by right under your nose."

[Translation: I'm not calling you a pump and dumper, but those were classic pump and dump tactics]  See how this individual operates?

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#16) On August 17, 2011 at 5:45 PM, Frankydontfailme (27.34) wrote:

:) 3.64% after hours gains for GPL (insider buying methinks?)

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#17) On August 17, 2011 at 6:22 PM, goldminingXpert (30.70) wrote:

You can deduce any personal argument you want out of my comments if you wish. I intended no personal attack and taking one from my comments is a mistake.  

Looking forward to seeing the second part. Do not keep me waiting too long, okay? ;) 

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#18) On August 17, 2011 at 10:36 PM, XMFSinchiruna (28.54) wrote:

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2011/08/17/exclusive-setting-the-record-straight-on-great-pan.aspx

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#19) On August 18, 2011 at 9:14 AM, XMFSinchiruna (28.54) wrote:

The least aptly named blogger states:

"The article I wrote that SN3165 is talking about can be found here."

In point of fact, the blog post in question can not be found there. It has been removed from public view.

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