(Hidden Camera) Investor, Do You Realize That the Last 9 Months Was Not the Beginning of a New Bull Market But Just a Large Bear Market Rally?
Sorry to continue this shtick, but when you are on a roll ... :)
To go along with the jokes that I made in these posts (Sit Ubu Sit .... Ubu?, Knock Knock, If You're Friends With P, Happy Fun Ball and Sometimes the Truest Points are Made Through Humor) here is one last one.
This rally has obfuscated the truth, that we are in a secular bear market. The long term (next several years) direction for the US equity market as a whole is down. But because the rally
a) lasted much longer than most bears thought likely
b) came with Wall St. analysts upgrading everything in sight and
c) was accompanied by Government economists declaring victory and the end of the recession,
it has suckered in a huge number of LTBH retail investors into becoming the bagholders.
See my rant in this post here: VIX Thoughts to Accompany a Few Count Options
So when we start crashing again (and I do not use this term lightly) and investors will realize they were mislead *again* (through Wall St. chicanery or simply outright incompetence) here is the reaction I would expect: