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alstry (< 20)

Higher Unemployment leading to a STRONGER dollar?????



December 22, 2008 – Comments (6)

Has Alstrynomics gone crazy???????

Unisys to eliminate about 1,300 jobs, seek to cut expenses

Caterpillar trims paychecks and puts buyouts on table

TXT] Textron to cut about 2,200 jobs, or about 5% of workforce

More than 1 million jobs cuts seen in 2009: Challenger

Now the question is how much more than 1 million??????

Just wait until the bankruptcies start pouring in.....followed by government cutbacks.......than the wage concesssions........and more defaults as the deleveraging progresses forward........

It seems clear now that the dollar will get stronger, unemployment will grow and grow as more businesses shut down and get rid of employees, and prices will crash as few will seemingly beable to afford their old lifestyle.  As America's balance sheet improves as a result of deleveraging, goods will become cheaper due to a better backed dollar....demand  will pick up.....and we will grow again on a much stronger footing.

Alstrynomics lesson #4....higher unemployment can lead to a stronger dollar.

6 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On December 22, 2008 at 8:33 PM, alstry (< 20) wrote:

Even Jesus Going Bankrupt????

From the WSJ:

EASTON, Md. -- The auctioneer told the small crowd huddled outside the Talbot County Courthouse that the property would be sold "as is" -- rectory, bell tower, oak pews and rose-tinted stained glass windows included.

"Who gives $700,000, 700, 700?" he called out. One man, a representative for a local bank, raised his finger. The auctioneer tried in vain to nudge the price up. "Sold!" he cried. St. Andrew Anglican Church had just been bought by the bank that had started foreclosure proceedings against it.

During this holiday season of hard times, not even houses of God have been spared. Some lenders believe more churches than ever have fallen behind on loans or defaulted this year. Some churches, and at least one company that specialized in church lending, have filed for bankruptcy. Church giving is down as much as 15% in some places, pastors and lenders report.

Holy Homeless.......havn't we heard this story before right around Christmas time a few thousand  years ago????

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#2) On December 22, 2008 at 9:23 PM, motleyanimal (39.38) wrote:

This is interesting, since historically, religion thrives during times of economic upheaval, because it addresses people's yearnings, fears, and society's desperation for answers and guidance when faced with uncertainty. This is especially true for "End Of Days" apocalyptic religious cults.

Perhaps they haven't been reading your blogs.

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#3) On December 22, 2008 at 9:39 PM, alstry (< 20) wrote:

Wasn't the end really supposed to be the beginning???? 

Further, religion does thrive, it is just all that material nonsense around it that suffers.

I find it interesting that people find my blogs apocalyptic....for me it is just documenting a period of  time to  prepare  for another period.  When we  get to 30% unemployment, it will have many positive collateral benefits....families will get closer....children will care for their parents and parents will stay closer to their children.

Other cultures have been doing this for thousands of years with excellent results.

For me, I won't have to travel as far to have a drink with my family......playing a family poker game will become more frequent, the money we save on travel can be applied to wine and song.

Less truly is more.....and the less you have...the more time you can spend with those you love.....and isn't life simply a continium of declining time.

Give me a good bloody, good friends, and a poker table and I am not sure there is much I can buy to better that...

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#4) On December 23, 2008 at 1:40 AM, motleyanimal (39.38) wrote:

Cultures may have been doing this for centuries, although I suspect that the excellence of the tradition may have been lost on Emperor Petronius Maximus as the Vandals sacked Rome and he was stoned to death by the Roman shareholders in 455 AD. Ah, those were the days when job performance meant something!

Your predictions of 30% unemployment in the US are certainly apocalyptic and would require a massive economic failure to become a reality. Have you any idea of how many millions of people would die in such a scenario? I don't. In the 1930s, Africa, Asia and South America were still mostly composed of self-sustaining tribal/agrarian societies. Imagine half the world in a state similar to Zimbabwe.

Families do get closer during hard times, this is true. They generally are forced to move in together to survive. It brings up a rather odd statistic. One would think that during difficult economic conditions that crime would rise. Sales of handguns are up 8% YTD which seems to indicate it is a commonly held view. Yet crimes such as robberies and burglaries actually decrease, apparently because with 3 or more generations living in the same home, they watch over each other more closely. However, at the same time reports of domestic violence increase. Well, I guess we can't all be "The Waltons."

I admit to living a more frugal lifestyle now that I do not work and live on a pension and investment income at my advanced age of 56, but I would be doing so regardless of the economy. No more suits and hair stylists, commutes to the city, bars and expensive restaurants, flowers and gifts for people I don't care about, and no damned cell phone. I am fortunate to have numerous fruit trees, most of it goes to the food bank. I also have grape vines and grow many vegetables each year. So I have some agreement with you, in as much as I enjoy a simpler life, but I still have cable and internet service and would be very unhappy without them. I also take classes at the local community college, just for some creative stimulation and the social contact is great. I pay only $20 per credit.

At the risk of forwarding an obsfucatory contradiction, I'll concede that a depression might be a good thing --- for those who can afford it.

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#5) On December 23, 2008 at 1:58 AM, starbucks4ever (92.59) wrote:

I'm wondering what the bank will do with that house. A condo conversion?

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#6) On December 23, 2008 at 4:46 PM, jesusfreakinco (28.24) wrote:

Yes you are nuts... No way layoffs will be good for the dollar - don't you understand the impact of a lower GDP - lower tax revenues - higher deficits - less confidence in our ability to pay back the debt...

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