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portefeuille (98.91)




April 06, 2010 – Comments (14)



April 5, 2010.

Rate Expectations Push JCI to Record High

The Jakarta Composite Index surged to a new all-time high and the rupiah hit its strongest level in more than two years on Monday as investors, mostly foreign funds, snapped up domestic stocks on expectations that the central bank will keep its benchmark interest rate at a record low today.

Analysts said low interest rates would help boost economic growth, and investors were turning to Asian countries, including Indonesia, in search of higher returns as the recoveries in the United States and Europe struggled to gain traction.

The JCI rose 57.25 points, or 2 percent, to close at 2,887.24, surpassing its previous record close of 2,830 on Jan. 9, 2008.

The benchmark index has climbed 15 percent this year, making it the best-performing stock market in Asia, excluding the Osaka Hercules in Japan.

“Foreign investors focused on buying blue chip stocks, which was reflected in the rupiah’s appreciation,” said Syaiful Adrian, an equities analyst at PT Ciptadana Sekuritas.





EMERGING MARKETS-Stocks hit all-time
highs in Mexico, Argentina

* Brazil's Bovespa up for 6th session, hits 22-month high

* Mexico stocks, peso gain on bets of US-driven rebound

* Argentine assets rally on debt swap expectations

* Chile's cenbank minutes hint at rate hike after quake

NEW YORK, April 5 (Reuters) - Further signs of recovery in
the U.S. economy propelled Latin American financial markets on
Monday, sending Mexican stocks to an all-time high and the
country's currency to its strongest in 17 months.


 In Mexico, which sends 80 percent of its exports to the neighboring United States, the IMEF manufacturing sector index jumped to its highest level in almost 3-1/2 years.


 Bets that Mexico will be the Latin American country to
benefit the most from the U.S. economic recovery sent the
country's IPC stock index .MXX closed up 1.15 percent to a
record high 33,648.89 points.

 Argentina's MerVal stock index .MERV also finished at an
all-time high, after jumping 3.19 percent on the day on
expectations the government will get a high rate of acceptance
in a planned swap of defaulted bonds.

 Brazil's Bovespa index .BVSP rose 0.22 percent to a fresh
22-month high, in its sixth consecutive session of gains.


14 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On April 06, 2010 at 11:40 PM, dragonLZ (86.73) wrote:

Porte, sorry about the off-topic question:

How far are we from the top limit line on your S&P chart? I haven't seen it lately, but I think we might be very close.

Thanks and Good Luck!

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#2) On April 06, 2010 at 11:44 PM, portefeuille (98.91) wrote:

#1 recent versions are here.

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#3) On April 06, 2010 at 11:45 PM, portefeuille (98.91) wrote:


December 21, 2009

Chile stock index ends at new life closing high

SANTIAGO, Dec 21 (Reuters) - Chile's leading share index rose to a closing high on Monday, led by utility and commodity shares and underpinned by gains on global bourses, traders said.

Chile's blue-chip IPSA index .IPSA closed a preliminary 0.65 percent firmer at 3,522.08 points, surpassing the previous record close of 3,499.50 points set on July 3, 2007.

The index hit an all-time intraday high of 3,523.22 points earlier in the session. Like other regional bourses, the IPSA has powered higher this year and is up around 48 percent year to date.


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#4) On April 06, 2010 at 11:48 PM, portefeuille (98.91) wrote:


December 3, 2009.

Colombia’s IGBC Index Rises to Record, First in Major Markets

Dec. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Colombia’s IGBC equity index rose to a record, becoming the first benchmark gauge among the world’s largest markets to surpass an all-time high this year, as interest-rate cuts and rising commodity prices lured investors to the nation’s stocks.

The IGBC advanced 1.3 percent today to 11,558.72, topping the closing peak of 11,438.88 reached in November 2007. Only indexes in Sri Lanka and Tunisia, whose market values are less than 10 percent of Colombia’s $126.8 billion, have also exceeded records following the global financial crisis, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.


Inversiones Argos SA, a Medellin-based holding company, rose 96 percent as it focused its portfolio in energy, lifting its investment in Colinversiones and preparing a bid for a stake in electricity firm Empresa de Energia del Pacifico SA.

Mineros SA, Colombia’s biggest gold-mining company, jumped 142 percent for the second-largest gain on the index. Gold climbed to a record as a slump in the U.S. dollar fuels demand for the metal as an alternative asset.

Ecopetrol, which has a 30 percent weight in the index, climbed 29 percent this year.

There is a seasonal factor in equities’ gain, according to Forero. The IGBC has added 9.7 percent in the past month.

“In December there’s higher demand for stocks because of tax benefits,” he said. Assets in equities avoid some taxes under Colombian law.



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#5) On April 06, 2010 at 11:58 PM, portefeuille (98.91) wrote:

March 1, 2010.


Sri Lanka shares at new high; foreigners exit

COLOMBO, March 1 (Reuters) - Sri Lankan share prices hit a new record high on Monday led by retail buying, despite the departure of foreign investors amidst political and economic concerns.

The All-Share Price Index .CSE of the Colombo Stock Exchange gained 0.94 percent to hit a new high of 3843.67 points, surpassing its previous all-time high hit on Feb. 28.



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#6) On April 07, 2010 at 12:05 AM, portefeuille (98.91) wrote:

April 6, 2010.


Tel Aviv stocks close at all-time high

JERUSALEM, April 6 (Reuters) - Israel's blue-chip Tel Aviv 25 index .TA25 rose 0.4 percent to close at an all-time high on Tuesday, as strong economic growth continued to buoy the stock market.



After surging some 70 percent in 2009, the Tel Aviv bourse is up another 8 percent so far in 2010 on the heels of a rapidly rebounding economy.

"Israel's economy only had a two-quarter recession and now we are back to trend growth," said Saar Golan, a trader at the Clal Finance brokerage. "The general mood in the markets are for continued gains -- even if (some) people are calling for a correction."

The economy contracted in the fourth quarter of 2008 and first quarter of 2009 before posting positive growth starting in the April-June period of last year. Growth was an annualised 4.9 percent in the fourth quarter and the economy is expected to grow at least 3.5 percent in 2010.




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#7) On April 07, 2010 at 12:11 AM, portefeuille (98.91) wrote:

October 7, 2009.


DGEN hits all-time high

The benchmark index of Dhaka Stock Exchange hit its highest-ever level in history at 3,215.79 points yesterday, as the market was on a steady gaining streak for a third day.

Operators said a gradual increase in investors' confidence helped the market set the new record.

“As subscription of the largest-ever initial public offering, Grameenphone IPO, is going on, the market is on the rise. It proves that the strength of the market is increasing and confidence of the existing and new investors is on an upward climb,” DSE President Rakibur Rahman said.

He said it was predicted earlier that the market would experience a downward trend during the Grameenphone IPO subscription period. “But instead, the market is going up that proves it is ready to absorb big issues like Grameenphone,” said Rahman, also the managing director of Midway Securities.

The government should now offload its stakes in different entities like hotel, motel, telecom companies and airlines, he said.

The government should also raise funds for financing big power plants and infrastructure projects.

The benchmark DSE General Index (DGEN) went up by 28.08 points, or 0.88 percent, yesterday. Earlier, the index hit an all time high when it closed at 3,207.89 points on June 1 last year.

The DSE introduced the general index on November 27, 2001 with a base of 817.62 points.



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#8) On April 07, 2010 at 12:28 AM, portefeuille (98.91) wrote:

April 5, 2010.


Inflation hurts Turkish bonds, stocks hit life high

ISTANBUL, April 5 (Reuters) - Turkish equities touched an all-time high on Monday, boosted by optimism about firms' growth potential and Turkey's economic recovery, while data showing higher core inflation drove bond yields up 21 basis points. The Istanbul equity index rose in afternoon trade to touch a new record high of 58,896 points, surpassing a previous life high of 58,864.34 points from Oct. 15 2007, before easing slightly to close at 58,644.98 points. "If we consider 2010 profit expectations for Turkish companies I think we may even see the index reach levels of 62,000 points," said Onur Mutlu, head of research at Gedik Invest. "Analysts set their earnings estimates according to conservative assumptions but I think as we reach first-quarter results we will see upgrades."


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#9) On April 07, 2010 at 2:16 AM, checklist34 (98.40) wrote:

ok, ok, ok. 

you being full-bore bullish -vs- me being bullish and all in last year in march and july, but hedging and raising cash this year...

you win, you were more right, I am sucky and have a bald head.

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#10) On April 07, 2010 at 2:18 AM, checklist34 (98.40) wrote:

when do we hit black monday on your chart?

I am not kidding:  I am going to buy 1000 or 10,000 way, way, way, way out of the money puts on 3x levered ETFs when we get close to that.

It'll cost about what?  5 grand?  but if we hit a black monday I'll make what?  5 million?  500 grand?

see what I mean?

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#11) On April 07, 2010 at 10:34 AM, sentinelbrit (55.35) wrote:

Port - this is off topic but I don't know how to contact you directly - so my question: I'm thinking of buying shares in EMC. I've looked at your past blogs on the stock. It seems reasonably value on 2011 earnings (selling at 14x). What do you think the stock is worth? Thanks in advance for your view.

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#12) On April 07, 2010 at 1:12 PM, portefeuille (98.91) wrote:

you win

I am sure you made more money with your smallest winning position than I did with my entire portfolio. so we could call it a draw, hehe ...

I am going to buy 1000 or 10,000 way, way, way, way out of the money puts on 3x levered ETFs

Taleb would be proud of you.

when we get close to that.

I would buy them today. now!

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#13) On April 07, 2010 at 1:17 PM, portefeuille (98.91) wrote:

#11 also a very good idea to have some EMC shares. I always see it as "EMC non-VMware business" plus "stake in VMware" + "net cash". And the "EMC non-VMware business" is probably not "selling at 14x" using 2011 estimates but rather at 5x or so. So if you like VMW shares you should buy them via EMC shares. If you don't like VMW shares you should not buy EMC shares.

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#14) On April 07, 2010 at 9:07 PM, NYCFOOLIO (< 20) wrote:

on post #12 - i am interested in taking a wild ride (of course not as wild as you guys)....what do I need to do?  :  )

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