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TMFDeej (99.47)

Hmmmmm, "Buffett and Gates tour Alberta oil sands"

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August 20, 2008 – Comments (15) | RELATED TICKERS: CNQ

Here's an interesting headline that seems to have gone somewhat under the radar here in the U.S.  I picked up on it while perusing a Canadian newspaper.

"Buffett and Gates tour Alberta oil sands"

Anyone who has read my blog knows that I am very bullish on oil, but that I prefer conventional plays to oil sands.  Having said this, my largest E&P position does have some oil sands exposure.  Having two big guns like Buffett and Gates, the first and third richest people in the world respectively, sniffing around oil sands companies will certainly give them a short-term pop and possibly a huge boost if they actually decide to pull the trigger on a deal.  It has certainly helped, the stock of Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) today, the company that they are rumored to have met with.

The CNQ oil sands project that the two toured

Deej

15 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On August 20, 2008 at 4:31 PM, TMFDeej (99.47) wrote:

On a related note, I just heard that Mr. Buffett will be on CNBC's Squawk Box on Friday morning from 6:00 to 9:00 AM EST.  I wonder if they will ask him about his recent trip.  I hope so.

Deej

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#2) On August 20, 2008 at 5:52 PM, nuf2bdangrus (< 20) wrote:

My BQI was up 22% today.  Too bad my position is so small.

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#3) On August 20, 2008 at 6:20 PM, DemonDoug (98.73) wrote:

Nuf, if you get a big pop on BQI, sell it.  I don't know enough about exploration companies to say this with confidence, but I definitely believe they will need to have another highly dilutive secondary offering within the next 12 months.  I have a feeling that it will be in the 2-3 dollar range, with extremely high volatility, in those 12 months.  I think BQI might be one of the best bets out there for development stage E&P oil, but I'm not sure the risks at this point outweigh the potential return.  It seems like their production schedules might get moved back too which would also slash the share price.

But oh yes.  ECA, CNQ, and SU are absolutely golden.  I'd love oil to drop back into the 90s or maybe even 80s so could get get these cheaper than they have been.  I still like SU the best of all of them.

MRO also has significant exposure to canada's oil sands.  Deej, if I remember right it's XTO that's your biggest e&p (or do i have that wrong) - I don't remember them having tar sands exposure, and if it's not XTO then I can't remember what it was that was your biggest E&P.

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#4) On August 20, 2008 at 8:54 PM, TMFDeej (99.47) wrote:

Hey Doug.  XTO is my 3rd largest E&P position, behind PBR/A #2, and the still unmentionable #1 company that I have been adding to recently through after today's pop I'll probably cool it for a while.

Deej 

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#5) On August 21, 2008 at 5:30 AM, DemonDoug (98.73) wrote:

Ah, it's gotta be RIG then.  I'm not sure why I forgot - maybe because you haven't been blogging about RIG.  If you are buying RIG, that would make a helluva lot of sense.  I still want rig under 110 at the most, and preferably under 100.  It's the greedy value investor in me, although I can't fault you or anyone for buying rig in the 110-130 area.

btw if my mentioning what i'm fairly certain are your positions is breaking some kind of code, just let me know I'll stop talking about it, but otherwise expect it to continue (one of the if not the main reasons I refuse to write as a fool staffer is I want the freedom to talk about any stock I want at any time).

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#6) On August 21, 2008 at 5:30 AM, DemonDoug (98.73) wrote:

Ah, it's gotta be RIG then.  I'm not sure why I forgot - maybe because you haven't been blogging about RIG.  If you are buying RIG, that would make a helluva lot of sense.  I still want rig under 110 at the most, and preferably under 100.  It's the greedy value investor in me, although I can't fault you or anyone for buying rig in the 110-130 area.

btw if my mentioning what i'm fairly certain are your positions is breaking some kind of code, just let me know I'll stop talking about it, but otherwise expect it to continue (one of the if not the main reasons I refuse to write as a fool staffer is I want the freedom to talk about any stock I want at any time).

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#7) On August 21, 2008 at 6:51 AM, TMFDeej (99.47) wrote:

Sorry to be so cryptic, but it's not RIG either.  I was talking about E&P companies, not drillers.  I did take advantage of the recent weakness to roll out of some of my smaller driller positions and substantially increase my stake in RIG a couple of weeks ago though.  My position in RIG is now larger than my position in XTO and PBR/A and one of my top five holdings.

I have been consolidating my E&P positions into my favorite player as well.  Rather than having a million small positions, I have been trying to put my money into the few of what I believe are the best run, most undervalued companies in sectors so that I can follow them more closely.  With the recent strength, hopefully it has seen its lows and I will be able to talk about it in t-minus 9 days.

Deej

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#8) On August 21, 2008 at 9:28 AM, Jro81 (< 20) wrote:

They will probably send 3 hours on the credit crisis and ask about Obama for the rest of it ...

Jared

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#9) On August 21, 2008 at 1:32 PM, dexion10 (28.27) wrote:

I'm with demon doug on BQI... not enough cash to accomplish what they need to do.

Unless they plan to stop production for 4 years at which point peak oil should be pretty clear - they'll have to sell shares on the cheap to raise cash. 

 

I wouldn't short BQI in CAPs until oil runs real high... then BQI is the canary in the coal mine.  A high cost producer that loses the biggest % of gross margin with each tick down of oil  

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#10) On August 21, 2008 at 1:33 PM, dexion10 (28.27) wrote:

oh I just posted again on nat gas today - you can see the blog here:

 

Basically a big shout out to Deej, Demon Doug, and VT Engineer because we all nailed this commodity rally!

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#11) On August 21, 2008 at 2:07 PM, WillSurfForFood (89.31) wrote:

My guess is Deej's largest E&P is PWE.

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#12) On August 21, 2008 at 2:15 PM, columbia1 wrote:

I putting my guess with PWE also, dropping down into the low27"s would have been a great buy, long PWE!!

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#13) On August 21, 2008 at 4:05 PM, DemonDoug (98.73) wrote:

PWE is an energy trust, not an E&P (exploration and production) company.

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#14) On August 21, 2008 at 5:57 PM, DemonDoug (98.73) wrote:

PWE is an energy trust, not an E&P (exploration and production) company.

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#15) On September 14, 2008 at 8:26 PM, UltraContrarian (32.11) wrote:

Deej - is your mystery oil sands stock PetroCanada (PCZ)?  I know they are integrated not just E&P, but so is PBR for that matter.

(Hopefully so, I really like PCZ and just opened a position.)

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