Use access key #2 to skip to page content.

abitarePERFECT (28.91)

Housing Bubble vs. Great Depression Quotes

Recs

13

March 18, 2008 – Comments (13)

Fools keep talking about a bounce or a bull market or a short cycle or a light recession or shilling  some garbage about the time to buy  etc....  A decent time show some great quotes from  Housing Bubble vs. Great Depression.

Housing Bubble vs. Great Depression Quotes

Taken from Surviving the Crash - Documentary of the Coming Economic Crash

Wall Street Crash of 1929. The market did not return to pre-1929 levels until late 1954,[3] and was lower at its July 8, 1932 level than it had been since the 1800s.[4 

"Anyone who bought stocks in mid-1929 and held onto them saw most of his adult life pass by before getting back to even" Richard M. Salsman "Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau."
- Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in economics, Oct. 17, 1929

"Home sales are coming down from the mountain peak, but they will level out at a high plateau -- a plateau that is higher than previous peaks in the housing cycle.”
- David Lereah, Chief Economist, National Association of Realtors



"There will be no interruption of our permanent prosperity."
- Myron E. Forbes, President, Pierce Arrow Motor Car Co., January 12, 1928

"It's impossible for prices to go down this year."
- Gary Watts, Spokesman Orange Country Association of Realtors



"I have no fear of another comparable decline."
- Arthur W. Loasby (President of the Equitable Trust Company), quoted in NYT, Friday, October 25, 1929

“I don't worry about new home sales,”
- James Glassman, JP Morgan Chase Economist



"In most of the cities and towns of this country, this Wall Street panic will have no effect."
- Paul Block (President of the Block newspaper chain), editorial, November 15, 1929

"There is no national housing market, so there can't be a national house-price bubble."
- Michael Youngblood, Managing Director, Friedman Billings Ramsey & Co



"I cannot help but raise a dissenting voice to statements that we are living in a fool's paradise, and that prosperity in this country must necessarily diminish and recede in the near future."
- E. H. H. Simmons, President, New York Stock Exchange, January 12, 1928

“If you own your own home free and clear, people will often refer to you as a fool. All that money sitting there, doing nothing.”
- Anthony Hsieh, CEO Lending Tree



"Buying of sound, seasoned issues now will not be regretted"
- E. A. Pearce market letter quoted in the New York Herald Tribune, October 30, 1929

"I think investors will have a good reason to come out here and buy again."
- Jeromith Sutton, 2006, NAR Investment Advisor



"...despite its severity, we believe that the slump in stock prices will prove an intermediate movement and not the precursor of a business depression..."
- Harvard Economic Society (HES), November 2, 1929

"We're now in the 'middle innings' of the current economic expansion, and the next economic recession is not yet in sight.”
- David Seiders, Chief Economist, National Association of Home Builders, Jan 2006



"For six years American business has been diverting a substantial part of its attention, its energies and its resources on the speculative game... Now that irrelevant, alien and hazardous adventure is over."
- Business Week, November 2, 1929

"Speculators and people who bought homes with (adjustable-rate mortgages) in 2004 are in a lot of trouble and they're trying to get out,"
- Steve Bottfeld, a senior analyst with research firm Marketing Solutions 2006



"This crash is not going to have much effect on business."
- Arthur Reynolds, Chairman of Continental Illinois Bank of Chicago, October 24, 1929

"We may see a blip up in foreclosures and delinquencies."
- Leslie Appleton-Young, Chief Economist, California Association of Realtors



"For the immediate future, at least, the outlook (stocks) is bright."
- Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in Economics, in early 1930

"...housing activity will remain healthy for some time to come."
- David Lereah, NAR’s chief economist, October 28, 2005



"Financial storm definitely passed."
- Bernard Baruch, cablegram to Winston Churchill, November 15, 1929

"There is no bubble to burst,"
- Jim Folkman, VP of the Home Builders Association of Central New Mexico



"The end of the decline of the Stock Market will probably not be long, only a few more days at most."
- Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics at Yale University, November 14, 1929

"I'd say this is another very important signal that the economic soft patch we were all worried about is pretty much confined to March"
- David Seiders, Chief Economist, National Association of Home Builders



"Hysteria has now disappeared from Wall Street."
- The Times of London, November 2, 1929

"These long-run worries, there's an element of truth to them, but I think frankly the fears are exaggerated.”
- James Glassman, JP Morgan Chase Economist

"... a serious depression seems improbable"
- Harvard Economic Society, November 10, 1929

"The idea that we're going to see a collapse in the housing market seems to me improbable”
- John Snow, Secretary of the Treasury

"Gentleman, you have come sixty days too late. The depression is over."
- Herbert Hoover, responding to a delegation
requesting a public works program
to help speed the recovery, June 1930

"People who talk about a bubble are blowing smoke,"
- Michael Carney, Real Estate Economist
California State Polytechnic University Pomona.
Thursday, February 10, 2005



"This is the time to buy stocks."
- R. W. McNeel, market analyst, New York Herald Tribune, October 30, 1929

"There was never a "bubble", so there is nothing to "burst".
- Jeromith Sutton, 2006, NAR Investment Advisor



"There may be a recession in stock prices, but not anything in the nature of a crash."
- Irving Fisher, leading U.S. economist , New York Times, Sept. 5, 1929

"When I hear [about a housing bubble] I get the sense that people aren't connecting the dots.”
- James Glassman, JP Morgan Chase Economist



"There is nothing in the situation to be disturbed about."
- Secretary of the Treasury Andrew Mellon, Feb 1930

"I think the bloom is off the rose, but there is no doom and gloom."
- Alan Nevin, Chief Economist, California Building Industry Association.



"Unless we are to have a panic -- which no one seriously believes, stocks have hit bottom."
- R. W. McNeal, financial analyst in October 1929

"The national media is reporting a housing bubble. Don't believe it.”
- Dale Akins, President, Market Edge



"While the crash only took place six months ago, I am convinced we have now passed through the worst -- and with continued unity of effort we shall rapidly recover."
- Herbert Hoover, President of the United States, May 1, 1930

"I'm calling it a soft landing -- a return to what is considered to be more normal market conditions,"
- Leslie Appleton-Young, Chief Economist, California Association of Realtors

"Maybe we need something new. That's all I'm prepared to say"
"I'm sorry I ever made that comment."
"When I get my new term, I'll let you know."
- Leslie Appleton-Young, Chief Economist, Cal. Assoc. Realtors
When asked about her "Soft Landing" prediction



"...good stocks are cheap at these prices."
- Goodbody and Company market letter quoted in The New York Times, Friday, October 25, 1929

"Existing-home prices have not collapsed. They've come down to a more normal pace..."
- Larry Murphy, President SalesTraq, Real Estate Trend Tracker



"[1930 will be] a splendid employment year."
- U.S. Dept. of Labor, New Year's Forecast, December 1929

“The continuing shortages of housing inventory are driving the price gains. There is no evidence of bubbles popping.”
- David Lereah, NAR’s chief economist, August 2005



"The former great periods of prosperity in America averaged eleven years. On this basis we now have three more years to go before the tailspin."
- Stuart Chase (American economist and author), NY Herald Tribune, November 1, 1929

"I'm so mad at my neighbor. I bought my new home here in Ashburn last summer and plan to sell it next year (after holding two years to avoid taxes) to make a nice return on my investment. The problem is my neighbor is trying to sell his house (very similar to mine) right now and he keeps lowering his asking price. Each time he lowers his price, I see my potential profits next year getting squashed. Doesn't he realize he's hurting the comps for all of his neighbors by doing this? I don't think he is acting very "neighborly" by doing this. I want to say something to him and tell him he should stop putting his interests ahead of his neighbors. It's people like him who are ruining the market for the rest of us. If he would just refuse to lower his price, we could maintain our comps and everyone would benefit. What can I do to stop him?"
- Question during a real estate chat held by the Washington Post.



"The spring of 1930 marks the end of a period of grave concern...American business is steadily coming back to a normal level of prosperity."
- Julius Barnes, head of Hoover's National Business Survey Conference, Mar 16, 1930

“What the market is doing is going through a correction, which it really needed. It’s getting down to where it’s reasonable."
- Ted Martinez, representative to the National Homebuilders Association



"I am convinced that through these measures we have reestablished confidence."
- Herbert Hoover, December 1929

"We are really on track for a soft landing. There are no balloons popping.”
- David Lereah, NAR’s chief economist, December 2005



"All safe deposit boxes in banks or financial institutions have been sealed... and may only be opened in the presence of an agent of the I.R.S."
- President F.D. Roosevelt, 1933

"One of the reasons we think this market will start to run out of gas at some point is that you've essentially created as much gold from straw as you can from this financial alchemy,"
- Scott Simon, mortgage chief at California bond house Pimco.



"...there are indications that the severest phase of the recession is over..."
- Harvard Economic Society (HES) Jan 18, 1930

"... the outlook continues favorable..."
- HES Mar 29, 1930

"... the outlook is favorable..."
- HES Apr 19, 1930

"...by May or June the spring recovery forecast in our letters of last December and November should clearly be apparent..."
- HES May 17, 1930

"... irregular and conflicting movements of business should soon give way to a sustained recovery..."
- HES June 28, 1930

"... the present depression has about spent its force..."
- HES, Aug 30, 1930

"We are now near the end of the declining phase of the depression."
- HES Nov 15, 1930

"Stabilization at [present] levels is clearly possible."
- HES Oct 31, 1931

"The retreat in housing-market activity that's now under way amounts to a simmering-down process...rather than a classic cyclical contraction that could spiral down for some time."
- David Seiders, Chief Economist, National Association of Home Builders, Jan 2006

"Buying of sound, seasoned issues now will not be regretted"
- E. A. Pearce market letter quoted in the New York Herald Tribune, October 30, 1929

"Housing is still the best investment, without question"
- Stan Sieron, Illinois Association of Realtors President

13 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On March 18, 2008 at 8:31 PM, lquadland10 (< 20) wrote:

Our central BANK bailed out the banks and lending firms so for now the 1929 market crash of 2008 was avoided. To bad everyone else (the American tax payer) got scr--- again. So now because they didn't change the laws the same bad loans will be made again and again and again. I so love living in England.

Report this comment
#2) On March 18, 2008 at 9:09 PM, MRTShorts (99.27) wrote:

the only problem with the comparison is that you're using an industry group that is known for pumping their product as a basis for general opinion.

Report this comment
#3) On March 18, 2008 at 9:37 PM, abitare (31.77) wrote:

“No! No! No! Bear Stearns is not in trouble. If anything, they’re more likely to be taken over. Don’t move your money from Bear.”Questions for Cramer? document.write("");document.write("madmoney"+"@"+"cnbc.com");madmoney@cnbc.com

"I respectfully ask you not to draw a negative inference because I am asserting my Fifth Amendment constitutional protection on instruction of counsel."

-- Ken Lay, Enron's former chairman and CEO

``It was impossible to anticipate the credit crisis we've seen on a worldwide basis"- Countrywide's Angelo Mozilo, after dumping $425,000,000 of CFC shares

 

Report this comment
#4) On March 18, 2008 at 10:59 PM, Tastylunch (29.20) wrote:

how long did it take you to find all those quotes? good post as usual abitare. 

I  personally wonder if the NASDAQ will touch it's 2000 highs before 2025

Report this comment
#5) On March 18, 2008 at 11:28 PM, abitare (31.77) wrote:

Tastylunch,

I copied them from Surviving the Crash.

As for the NASDAQ, very tough to say. There are more and more exchanges being created. NASDAQ had a huge run up for several reasons that are now removed. Once a bubble is popped, it is impossible to reinflate. Plus there are new exchanges being created trying to attract new money and dumb investors.

 

Report this comment
#6) On March 19, 2008 at 1:31 AM, mickeyc21 (29.36) wrote:

The hypcorisy of some of the RE professors around the country is truly amazing. Michael Carney from Caltech was responsible for the purchase of tens of thousands of homes in SOCAL with his trumpeting of housings continuing boom in 2005.

Now he's quoted in the LA times a couple of days ago saying this:

 "Cal Poly Pomona real estate finance professor Michael T. Carney had predicted last year that home prices in Southern California would fall at least 15%. Now, "it's going to be more than 20%," he said. "We don't appear to be leveling out."

The guys that run RE at UCLA are playing the same game after calling anyone predicting a drop stupid for the last couple of years.

Economics as a proffession is coming out of this really badly. Anyone with a brain attached could see an asset inflation of this magnitude would end badly. 

Report this comment
#7) On March 19, 2008 at 9:17 AM, Gemini846 (50.01) wrote:

This was a great morning read. Thanks :)

Does anyone know where you can compare regional or national prices of raw land vs houses. IE Houses went up 400% in 10 years in Phoenix but raw land in AZ only went up 180%. (Example).

Report this comment
#8) On March 19, 2008 at 5:14 PM, abitare (31.77) wrote:

mickeyc21,

Good post. Unfortunately, I think the crisis of confidence is going to be very broad in scope, beyond just finance, politics, economics and real estate.

Gemin846,

Easy day.  Raw land has gone up much or more then housing. Like gold and oil, everyone is trying to protect their wealth from the destruction of the FED. In my home town farm land has risen from 2k-4k an acer to $8-10k an acer. Ethanol and the commodity bull market is part of the problem.

http://www.spectrusgroup.com/Undeveloped-Raw-Land.aspx 

Your late to the "raw land" investment party. 

Raw Land for Retirement Posted by: Toddi Gutner on April 25, 2007 Report this comment
#9) On March 31, 2008 at 8:16 PM, bridgeboy0 (30.28) wrote:

Locking in losers for your first 4 completed picks is not a good way to get your accuracy going.

Report this comment
#10) On November 20, 2008 at 5:26 PM, trustyfrog (99.06) wrote:

I'm relatively new to this CAPS thing.

I notice that most of the top rated players are bearish.  Mostly  they are bearish on certain sectors.

Well...  given market conditions since inception of caps, that's a no brainer phenomenon.

It is common sense that financial doomsayers have outperformed in this environment.

It will be interesting to see if any of the bear pack can keep from riding the pendalum too for the "other way".

I think the doomsday bearish argument is currently being falsely validated.

Can you say Voting Machine?  How's 'bout Weighing Machine?

Time will tell.

Report this comment
#11) On November 20, 2008 at 9:45 PM, dwot (42.57) wrote:

Congrats on top fool!

Report this comment
#12) On November 21, 2008 at 1:02 AM, abitarePERFECT (28.91) wrote:

trustyfrog,

"I notice that most of the top rated players are bearish. Mostly they are bearish on certain sectors."

Yes, you have to pick the sectors that are going to get crushed more then the market.

"Well... given market conditions since inception of caps, that's a no brainer phenomenon."

It is a "no brainer" in hindsight. Six months ago+++ being Bearish was a lonley place to be. The money and love was in commodity bubble. Before that China and the BRIC story, it is all hind sight now.

It is common sense that financial doomsayers have outperformed in this environment.

Sure, it is easy to know where the market is going. Go ahead and show us.

I think the doomsday bearish argument is currently being falsely validated.

Ok, umm? Place your bet accordingly. If you are a buy there are plenty of sellers. The US market is only down 40%. It is fallen further outside the US.

dwot,

Thank you. Thank you for your contribution to Fool. 

Report this comment
#13) On December 02, 2008 at 3:17 AM, Daretoth (< 20) wrote:

(+1142.31) New Record on caps for single day perhaps?

Awesome post man. Ron Paul was right. Only that used to have an "!" now it only gets a period because it doesn't seem like the ecnomists are listening to him. Instead more of the same and propositions for more stimulus. I don't think it's time to put all my money in gold just yet...but then again...

The Economy doesn't run on hope,

Daretoth

BTW I recently started on Caps and in the first few days I was an All Star. Then I green thumbed the Proshares right before this recent "hope" bubble and today I made 430 points! I will be an All Star again soon enough. Proshares will still go higher before I cash out (which will be in the positive).

Report this comment

Featured Broker Partners


Advertisement