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Housing Starts and Completions

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November 20, 2007 – Comments (6)

What a day it's been. Early this morning, all the knucklehead business writers were reporting housing starts and completions UP, which is completely wrong, for reasons I outlined in an article on the main page. (Short story: the numbers didn't take into account the error, and they were comparing month to month, which is bogus.)

So, I made some charts -- which, alas, we can't publish on our front page -- to show the real state of things. (I didn't incorporate error into these, as I don't have time to redo all the data...) This is simply an excel chart made straign from Census Bureau data.

First, Housing Completions.

SP32-20071120-160710

Next, Starts.

SP32-20071120-161229

6 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On November 20, 2007 at 4:27 PM, TMFBent (99.80) wrote:

<SP32-20071120-162452

What the hey. I did the permits for all y'all too. Don't say I never give'd you'se nothin'. 

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#2) On November 20, 2007 at 4:34 PM, floridabuilder2 (99.31) wrote:

your the like the DR Horton of bloggers... you just keep pumping out volume.... #$%^@#  I'm never going to catch you as 2nd most recommended.... you and Dan are so tough...  I guess it would help if I stopped hitting your rec.. button...

on a side note, there is a lot of pain for builders in 2008... I plan on throwing a turkey blog out there over the holidays about what is probably going to happen... in the meantime, the huge selloff in builders was so big, I couldn't resist buying some PHM this mid afternoon...  in the next month we should see some analyst upgrade or short covering to help me out....  I try not to give technical buy or sells on my blog, just fundamentals..  PHM at 10.23 my buy price is actually a great 5 year hold.... but if I can get a fast bounce, I'll take my chips and wait for the dip in 2008 on these stocks

keep up the good work bent

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#3) On November 20, 2007 at 5:53 PM, cabuilderboy (90.09) wrote:

In California, and for the most part, the rest of the US, we are now selling SFD homes at 1994 levels and starting homes at 1991 levels. But, we live in 2007 with a larger population and more diversified economy. I concur, more pain is on the way (SPF now a $163M market cap, ouch!!), but at some point, by virtue of the numbers and time, the market will find its footing. It always has and it always will. Construction has ceased, inventories are slowly being absorbed, ARM resets will begin to recede after March 2008, Banks will begin to liquidate land positions early in 2008,  and more homebuilder bankruptcies are in the offing. All of which get us closer to and end. It is going to be painful, but at least I see some signs of getting us there.

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#4) On November 20, 2007 at 7:37 PM, AnomaLee (28.72) wrote:

Do you think the figures could later be revised to a lower number?

 

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#5) On November 20, 2007 at 8:56 PM, TMFBent (99.80) wrote:

"Do you think the figures could later be revised to a lower number?"

Sure. Heck, they could even be revised upward, although I don't think there's a snowballs' chance in Miami that it would be high enough to do much about that amazing year-over-year drop.

Here, by the way, is the article I mentioned, in which I spank the AP for getting its headline 180 degrees wrong...

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#6) On November 20, 2007 at 8:58 PM, TMFBent (99.80) wrote:

"your the like the DR Horton of bloggers... you just keep pumping out volume.... #$%^@#  I'm never going to catch you as 2nd most recommended"

Grunt. Me get pay to poke keypad, make words all day... ungh. me write enough words, earn $1 billion operation cash flow... snort... before impairments...

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