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Valyooo (99.82)

How are you playing dsco?

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March 10, 2012 – Comments (23) | RELATED TICKERS: DSCO

I tend to avoid biotech stocks, but this one seems interesting.  So the stock finally got the approval its been wanting for years, and the stock explodes...only to close barely up,and then fall the next day, back to where it was pre-approval.

My initial thoguht is, if the best news on the planet for the stock doesn't move it, then can you imagine how badly bad news will crush it?  Makes me want to short it.

Then my thought is, they are going to have to dilute the stock more.  This dilution should finally be a good thing, since it will be used to market the drug, and produce it.  The dilution though, will probably send the shares tumbling to whatever the offer price is.  From there, the stock should continue to take off.

So, which is it?  Is there nothing that will pop the stock high?  Or is the right time to buy after the dilution? Or a third option?

23 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On March 10, 2012 at 2:56 PM, HarryCarysGhost (99.78) wrote:

I'm going to be  playing it here-

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/fantasy-finance/716472

Or.........

 

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#2) On March 10, 2012 at 3:17 PM, HarryCarysGhost (99.78) wrote:

Here-

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5CImrIKNmBo

(sorry if this is a double post, Caps has been weird lately)

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#3) On March 10, 2012 at 4:56 PM, portefeuille (99.75) wrote:

DSCO is currently the third largest long position of my fund (see comment #116 here) and one of my "stocks for 2012".

performance of those recommendations since December 30, 2011.



enlarge

 

DSCO shares are also the second largest position in my portfolio. The largest are EMC shares.

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#4) On March 10, 2012 at 4:57 PM, portefeuille (99.75) wrote:

And, obviously, I think it is not such a great idea to sell short DSCO shares ...

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#5) On March 10, 2012 at 5:15 PM, HarryCarysGhost (99.78) wrote:

Porte... no ATPG?

I also am picking that one for the contest but the time frame might get me.

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#6) On March 10, 2012 at 5:28 PM, Valyooo (99.82) wrote:

Port, can you just explai yourself? You're obviously very smart, but you have a tendency on caps to just post 100 comments on a blog saying what you are doing without explaining why. You're better than that. Why do you think it pulled back so much, and why will it not pull back more?

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#7) On March 10, 2012 at 5:47 PM, HarryCarysGhost (99.78) wrote:

Valy, why would Porte need to say more then he did? His charts show what he's thinking without a whole bunch of words getting in the way.

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#8) On March 10, 2012 at 6:10 PM, Valyooo (99.82) wrote:

not really sure how his  performance recommenations since december 30 2011 explains his rationale for why dsco is behaving the way it is

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#9) On March 10, 2012 at 6:23 PM, HarryCarysGhost (99.78) wrote:

Hey Man. what do you think of the stock picking game I posted above (much thanks to Motley Animsl)

You can join up for the second week to get totally killed by me.

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#10) On March 10, 2012 at 6:23 PM, HarryCarysGhost (99.78) wrote:

Hey Man. what do you think of the stock picking game I posted above (much thanks to Motley Animsl)

You can join up for the second week to get totally killed by me.

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#11) On March 11, 2012 at 12:13 AM, Valyooo (99.82) wrote:

I would be honored, I'll check it out

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#12) On March 11, 2012 at 11:42 AM, portefeuille (99.75) wrote:

#5 Yes, ATPG did not make the cut at the time. ATPG shares are the 6th largest long position of the fund. There are currently 17000/300 ATPG/ATPGP shares in the fund with break-even of around $10.76/$12.50.

I think DSCO shares will do alright in the next few years. The DSCO share price will probably still me quite "volatile" for a few months, see comment #26 here.

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#13) On March 12, 2012 at 5:26 PM, chrisblake (< 20) wrote:

It appears DSCO is working on a asthma drug which is a 56 billion dollars market.  The asthma drug is based on dsco approval of surfaxin,  Read the companies old reprots:  

 "We are conducting research and preclinical development with our KL4 surfactant potentially to address Acute Lung Injury (ALI), and, potentially in the future, other diseases associated with inflammation of the lung, such as Asthma and Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD). BIG NEWS with the FDA approval of Surfaxin."

 

Buy puts to cover if their is a split, oct $1 put options are just .05 per contract.  You will bet it falls but also buy the stock itself to bet it will go up.



http://markets.financialcontent.com/stocks/action/getedgarwindow?accesscode=114420411019190

The company continued to pursue a second indication in full-term infants with meconium aspiration syndrome before adding RDS in premature infants and beginning preclinical studies into converting Surfaxin into aerosolized forms for the possible treatment of asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, acute and chronic bronchitis and other respiratory diseases.
http://www.bioworld.com/content/discovery-labs-turns-its-focus-toward-surfaxin-market-strategy

http://www.aaaai.org/about-the-aaaai/newsroom/asthma-statistics.aspx

The Company has recently registered its initial AFECTAIR device, which has been designed for use with jet nebulizers and other aerosol generators, in the U.S. as a Class I, exempt medical device. The Company is planning to implement a regulatory and manufacturing plan that, if successful, could position it to initiate the commercial introduction of the initial AFECTAIR device in the U.S. and the European Union in thefourthquarterof2012,andasecondAFECTAIRdevice,AFECTAIR® DUO,whichisbeingdesignedforusewithvibratingmesh nebulizers (VMN), metered dose inhalers (MDI) and other aerosol generators, in 2013.

http://idc.api.edgar-online.com/efx_dll/edgarpro.dll?FetchFilingConvPDF1?SessionID=0BiDFtZ_0tYUKIS&ID=8467542"

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#14) On March 13, 2012 at 11:26 AM, rofgile (98.99) wrote:

This ain't no party, this ain't no DSCO, this ain't no foolin around.

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#15) On March 13, 2012 at 11:38 AM, Momentum21 (98.31) wrote:

Valyooo (99.90) - you mock the DSCO longs for following without knowing squat and now you want a bite of the apple? Do your own homework... : )

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#16) On March 14, 2012 at 2:51 PM, Valyooo (99.82) wrote:

I mock them for not doing any homework as an investment...I am curious as to how others trade it, based on biotech experience, of which I have none.  I am on the sidelines for what its worth :)

 

Also, when portefeuille recommends DSCO, he just posts all of his trades, and how much of it he owns...never an explanation.  I am looking for real thoughts.

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#17) On March 14, 2012 at 3:34 PM, TheDumbMoney (59.78) wrote:

I have had a dollar for every time portefuille has posted a one-line comment about DSCO I could retire.  Bit of an obsession, it seems like.

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#18) On March 15, 2012 at 10:07 AM, Valyooo (99.82) wrote:

Haha I agree

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#19) On March 15, 2012 at 11:28 AM, Momentum21 (98.31) wrote:

#16 If you paid attention and truly wanted to figure things out I think it would make more sense. It wouldn't matter if he gave you his thoughts...it is a matter of probablity. 

From what I have seen you are a bit of a douche to those who give you their thoughts anyhow. 

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#20) On March 15, 2012 at 11:35 AM, EnigmaDude (97.16) wrote:

#19  LOL!  (how do you really feel?)

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#21) On March 16, 2012 at 10:17 PM, Valyooo (99.82) wrote:

No, I am a douche to people who I ask questions to and they respond with "stfu i am the authority on this subject and what i say is the law so dont ask me any questions that show my obvious flaws"

 

i have been extremely thankful to the people on here who help me a lot...i have even made blogs thanking them, met them in person so i could buy them dinner, etc.

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#22) On March 17, 2012 at 12:59 AM, HarryCarysGhost (99.78) wrote:

Yeah, but your still a douche..:)

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#23) On March 17, 2012 at 1:22 AM, Starfirenv (< 20) wrote:

yup, I'm with Harry, But a douche is sometimes a very good thing.

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