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alstry (< 20)

How BAD is it Really?????



March 24, 2009 – Comments (13)



Remember a DEPRESSION is a 10% decline in GDP

Exports dropped 49.4%, while imports fell 43% in February, the Ministry of Finance reported in its provisional trade statistics.

Sorry.....this is export based economy...and this was a RECORD!!!!!!!!

Now what are you guys saying about the US Dollar compared to the rest of the world??????


You will soon realize commerce around the world is shutting down.....

For those of you guys that have never owned your own company...or run your own government....a 50% decline in revenues generally shuts most businesses down.....COMPLETELY

Once again......a DEPRESSION is a 10% decline in GDP....with exports down 50%...and imports down 43%.....what do you think is going on in Japan??????

Kool Aid anyone??????

13 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On March 24, 2009 at 9:55 PM, PrestonCheek (31.40) wrote:

Thanks Al, people really have blinders on these days and are forgetting that no matter how much our Gov tries to prop up someting and tell people that things are getting better it's really not. The mere fact that import/exports have fell that much will tell you that we have not reached the point of return yet, matter of fact we are a long way from it.

They say that the market will be the leading indicator and I'm sure it will but I think reality will set back in once earnings start to come out and people will quickly go back into the selling mode.

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#2) On March 24, 2009 at 10:19 PM, alstry (< 20) wrote:

The problem with Techno Fairies is that they really don't see reality.  The live in their charts and blow with the wind and intentionally fail to look at the fundementals. 

Ask a hockey player what happens when he skates with his head down...

Alstrynomics and Spector Vector Techno Trance Analysis applies many diciplines and distills them with FACTS to achieve a consistent approach to dealing with current conditions and reasonable projections to the future....

Right now the world is on the brink of the MOST SEVERE DEPRESSION in history....and some people are calling a bottom or that things are not that bad????

Housing sales are down are auto malls are going bankrupt across the country.....millions of families are losing their homes....companies are spending down their savings and tapping their lines simply to pay long do you think this can keep going????

Hundreds of thousands are losing their jobs every week....

Many at TMF are living with their heads buried in the sand.... just as the Techno Fairies live in their charts to hide from reality. 

It is absolutely fantastic how blind seemingly intelligent people are to what is so obvious.

Alstry can only do his best to warn....I am not sure if there is anything more Alstry can do other than scoring the most points with the highest average score and continue to warn about what is going ACTUALLY happening.

Many are spending down their savings or tapping out their credit cards and home equity lines simply to make ends soon as they are out money.....FU is stew when the money is through.



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#3) On March 24, 2009 at 10:23 PM, light2stone (< 20) wrote:

thanks for adding some emotional colour. Did you see the comment added to the link you provided?

"Read the scary part - Japan has a manufacturing base and makes products the world wants. They are down 50%. America has virtually no manufacturing base or exports. Where does that leave us? Still don't think this is a global depression?" 

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#4) On March 24, 2009 at 10:39 PM, alstry (< 20) wrote:

From Bloomberg:

Shipments to the U.S. tumbled an unprecedented 58.4 percent.

The brakes are slamming hard in America too...... Housing and Autos down 50%  Airlines and Hotels slowing rapidly.....Retail and Restaurants feeling the pinch......Advertising and Media not far behind.....Now the biggies are just starting the slowdown...Healthcare and Government...pretty soon there is no place to hide

The key thing keeping America going right now is that consumers are spending down their savings, retirement accounts and tapping out credit cards......once they are tapped out.......things run dry.

The banks cutting off $4 trillion dollars of credit availabilty over the next few months will only accellerate the shut down of our ecnomomy.

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#5) On March 24, 2009 at 10:40 PM, jgseattle (26.40) wrote:

it is funny for a long time I was worried about deflation and a depression but could not balance the threat of inflation so I purchased some gold and silver. 

I know Alstry thinks this is a dumb purchase.  But I am starting to think it was a great purchase.  Why?  Because if all hell does break loose people will buy gold and silver for safety, if inflation goes crazy gold and silver should do great also.

I am not adding to the position and the position represtents only 5% of my portfolio but I am starting to get a better feeling about this hedge position.

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#6) On March 24, 2009 at 10:45 PM, alstry (< 20) wrote:


If this makes you feel any better...I just purchased some silver today....I hope and think its going to zero.

I buy term life insurance too....even though I buy life insurance....I hope to lose the bet and am really not too anxious to kick off.....

Remember, when you buy life only get paid if you die....I hope my metals NEVER pay off as well.

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#7) On March 24, 2009 at 11:28 PM, ayekappy (< 20) wrote:

If durable goods orders isn't terrible tomorrow then there is some definite numbers cooking going on.

My one big question is why is NI225 only down .75%?  If it was that terrible or unexpected then wouldn't their market be down something fierce? Syndey is even up a little.

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#8) On March 24, 2009 at 11:41 PM, Bilifuduo (96.86) wrote:

guess the sushi finally got to their heads.

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#9) On March 25, 2009 at 12:44 AM, herztical (27.58) wrote:

I buy term life insurance too....even though I buy life insurance....I hope to lose the bet and am really not too anxious to kick off....

Why did you buy insurance if you think the US is going to hell? According to your posts, the proceeds will be worth dirt.  BTW, is your CAPS blog the beneficiary? So why not just save your money or better yet, why not just buy guns and food as you preach here everyday and not give it to AIG (aka US government)?

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#10) On March 25, 2009 at 1:14 AM, nihilkillsmemore (20.29) wrote:

I know your a lawyer al and you sound like a very educated person, so tell me if there is something wrong with my reasoning here

modus ponen:


if fed inflates currency to fight deflation then the buying power for the dollar will weaken, if the buying power of the dollar weakens then americans will spend less money (due to the psychological illusion of rising prices)  then fed will inflate currency repeat etc...(feedback)


do you think this is legit or reflexive in some way?


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#11) On March 25, 2009 at 1:16 AM, nihilkillsmemore (20.29) wrote:

oh yes! I forgot my conclusion: result will be inflation with deflation.

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#12) On March 25, 2009 at 8:44 AM, ayekappy (< 20) wrote:

What the heck?  Durable goods orders up 3.4%!  That's insane.  Watch new home sales somehow be through the roof too.

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#13) On March 25, 2009 at 9:12 AM, ayekappy (< 20) wrote:

Oh nevermind, last month was revised to -7.3% from -4.5% so it still beat expectations, but not by nearly as much.

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