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alstry (36.32)

How Can Alstrynomics Be So Right.....And Government So Wrong???

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September 06, 2009 – Comments (2)

Dane County's financial situation is in worse shape now than it was projected to be in May, which officials said will make next year's budget even more difficult to balance without the possibility of layoffs or deep service cuts.

County departments reported an $11.6 million deficit based on second-quarter revenues, an increase from an $8.8 million deficit in May, which prompted the county to negotiate employee pay cuts and freeze spending.

The 5 percent salary cuts in the second half of the year saved about $3 million, but sales tax projections and other revenues took a bigger nosedive than expected.

In May, the county was expecting sales tax revenues to be $2.6 million below budget. They now expect them to be $5 million down.

"It's almost impossible to project accurately what has gone on to our economy over the last year," Sup. Brett Hulsey, of Madison, chairman of the personnel and finance committee. "We thought the projections we made in May were good enough to address the situation we were in."

As a result, next year's budget will be even more difficult to balance without unprecedented cuts in spending or a big property tax hike.

http://host.madison.com/news/local/article_a63b3991-4dbc-5f37-8d2a-998dabd58de5.html

ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO ACCURATELY PROJECT?????

NOT FOR ALSTRYNOMICS.......Alstry has been warning about the pending municipal train wreck for months and how buget projections were ridiculously optimistic simply so politicians could keep their  inflated salaries and contituents busy with nonsense issues like health care reform and Presidential speeches.

When bankers cut off credit to a overleveraged swap induced consumer economy, sales evaporate and so does income and tax receipts.  We are just at the early stages and over 90% of our state and local governments are running budget shortfalls.....and that is with government running a $2 trillion dollar deficit.  Just wait until government can't borrow anymore.......at that point, we basically shut down the consumer based economy we currently operate.

Right now 70% of our GDP is consumer spending, 50% of our GDP is government consumption, and 20% is health care.......ALL of these areas will face dramatic cuts as the bailed out bankers suck the debt out of the system.

2 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On September 07, 2009 at 12:04 AM, alstry (36.32) wrote:

9.09

SAN FRANCISCO, California (AFP) – Some 2,000 students at Washington State University have reported symptoms of swine flu, university officials said, in one of the largest reported outbreaks of the virus on a US college campus.

The west-coast school last week instituted a blog to help provide information to students about the sudden and dramatic spread of the A(H1N1) virus on campus just days into the new school term.

"We estimate that we have been in contact with about 2,000 students with influenza-like illness in the first 10 days of our fall semester," the latest online posting said.

"At this time of year, we would typically only see a handful of patients with influenza-like illness. Health care providers in the local community have also seen WSU students with influenza-like illness, but we have no way of knowing how many.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20090906/hl_afp/healthfluusuniversity_20090906183917

Humvees Anyone?

Take it easy, the symptoms last a few days and all is fine.

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#2) On September 07, 2009 at 12:58 AM, AdirondackFund (< 20) wrote:

Nice post on the municipals.  With this kind of deterioration going on, Municipal Bond prices are going to fall further, raising interest rates ... 

I wouldn't think ordinarily that this is a positive development for the country.  Madison, WI is, after all, a fairly large City, and one which has missed estimates, particularly on Sales Tax, by 100%.  These are BIG MISSES and will impact Bond Prices sending Interest Rates higher. 

Oh, Happy Day.  Rising Interest Rates upon a mountain of Debt.  Anyone got a match?

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