How Far Will DownWithInfidels Fall?
I'm watched with great interest as DWI has rallied to as high as #5 on the fool with his 2 sector bet plays: long commodities, short financials. As my industry of interest is gold, I saw DWI involved in all the stocks I follow, and he was long all of them, even though some of them weren't very good. Now that the commodities bubble has spectacularly and unfixably blown up, it is clear that DWI missed the trend change. His overall score has dropped 1800 points since the beginning of March. All of his 19 most recent picks are now in the Red. DWI was a nice story, but if you bet on a sector, you will eventually die by that sector.
Take note all you financials or homebuilders haters... not every company in the field will succeed or fail... just because half of our homebuilders will fail doesn't mean that every stock in the sector will fail. The gold bull is over, and while I am still long (in real money) a couple gold stocks, I've largely sold and gone home... Jaguar Mining (JAG) is my favourite stock and it has, of course, held up well in the recent sell off. However, the worse gold companies, like Randgold (GOLD) and Goldcorp (GG) are falling mercilessly. As gold is going to 700 in the short run, only the strong commodity plays will survive. Be careful about sector bets... I will soon be passing DWI in rank, and it isn't because of my amazing abilities.
If you still own the commodity funds... bail out fast, the 50 day moving average blew up for both gold and silver... still down another $1 an ounce on silver and $25 an ounce on gold to find any support.