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TMFBro (< 20)

How good is Wall Street at timing the market?



August 20, 2009 – Comments (0)

Not very, apparently.

From the Bespoke Investment Group:

"As shown [in the charts below], strategists completely missed the turn in equities in early 2000, as they increased their recommended stock allocation all the way into mid-2001 when the market was well off of its highs.  Analysts were loathe to acknowledge the bull market from 2002 to 2007 as their recommended stock allocation trended lower all the way into early 2006. It wasn't until the last leg of the bull market that analysts as a whole finally started increasing their recommended stock allocation."

Not that you couldn't dig through the archives of Motley Fool articles and find plenty of cases of when we were wrong. I think this speaks more about the difficulty (and, frequently, folly) of market timing than anything else.


Robert Brokamp is the senior advisor for The Motley Fool’s Rule Your Retirement service.  

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