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How much did setting the record straight on GPL and SVM helped you?

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March 04, 2013 – Comments (37) | RELATED TICKERS: GPL , HOL , ES.DL

If you were a CAPS member back in 2011, I'm sure you remember TMFSinchiruna's posts "Setting the Record Straight" on Great Panther Silver (GPL) and Silvercorp Metals (SVM), in which he basically was trying to prove that GMX's post Mediocre Panther Fesses Up and increase in shorting of SVM stocks at that time had no merit whatsoever: A Must Read - Setting The Record Straight  , Setting the Record Straight on Silvercorp Metals .

Now, while it still might be impossible to prove who was right and who was wrong, the numbers do not lie. And the numbers say: 

If a person invested $10,000 in GPL at the time of TMFSinchiruna set the record straight on GPL (8/13/11), that person would now have approx. $10,000 less than a person who invested the same amount in S&P500 (Per the chart below, $10K invested in GPL turned into $4K, and $10K invested into S&P500 turned into almost $14K). 

A person who invested $10K into SVM at the time TMFSinchiruna's set the record straight on SVM (9/7/11) would approximately be in the same boat (see chart below).

So what do you say, was setting the records straight really helpful? 

Did "lynching" (CAPS-style) of GMX make anyone a better investor (or a better person)??

Or does anyone think this was a perfect example of (a rather large group of) investors falling in love with a stock(s) when they were going up thinking they will never go down (which I'm guilty of just like the next guy)?  

I also often wonder whether TMFSinchiruna would ever admit that he was wrong about GPL? (Maybe he did, but I didn't see it - I wasn't on CAPs for a few months). 

I know there is still 5 more months left in his dare to GMX (see a "copy" of his comment below), but even if GPL turns out to be a huge winner 5 months from now, shouldn't a 60% drop be considered a mistake, especially when TMFSinchiruna was trying to convince CAPS members that at that time, when GPL already had a significant drop, it was a good time to buy?

 

#5) On August 12, 2011 at 3:37 PM, TMFSinchiruna (29.60) wrote:

I never say your earlier post, perhaps because I think very little of your ability to evaluate mining stocks.

And here again, if you feel strongly about GPL, let's see you short it with conviction and hold the position open for a couple of years. Go for it ... I dare you!!

 

It looks to me that the smartest person commenting at that time on TMFSinchiruna's posts or articles was rmondave2 (commenting on the article Setting the Record Straight, Part 2): 

On August 20, 2011, at 1:45 AM, rmondave2 wrote:

Knowing the past history of many of the sleazy promoters, and the thinly traded silver stocks, I had to dump my GPL at a BIG loss, because who the F knew if the rumors were true. Your uncovering of the "holes" does me absolutely no good.

Thanks anyway.

37 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On March 04, 2013 at 4:47 PM, dragonLZ (99.38) wrote:

On August 17, 2011, at 5:28 PM, vkmo wrote:

I am waiting for GPL to reach $10 in a hurry.

 

On August 18, 2011, at 12:38 PM, TMFSinchiruna wrote:

wolverine,

wait for Part 2 ... coming soon.

 

On August 18, 2011, at 1:17 PM, SN3165 wrote:

I can't wait any longer!! :-)

 

On August 18, 2011, at 2:11 PM, TMFSinchiruna wrote:

http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNews20110818_MM.html

Great Panther Ships 100 Tons of Silver-Gold Pyrite to New Buyer in Mexico

 

On August 18, 2011, at 2:20 PM, SN3165 wrote:

hallelulah. They will eventually have all of it sold, and it will show up in the following quarters. expecting some pretty sweet results in q3 and q4.

 

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#2) On March 04, 2013 at 4:52 PM, dragonLZ (99.38) wrote:

On August 19, 2011, at 7:40 AM, MoneyWorksforMe wrote:

Excellent job Chris! I thoroughly enjoyed both articles, which are replete with insightful information.I particularly enjoyed the quotes from the CEO's--very compelling.

 

On August 19, 2011, at 9:41 PM, mihrtrn wrote:

Chris,

Thanks to your great article on GPL , I am very impressed with Motley Fool and am going to subscribe.

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#3) On March 04, 2013 at 5:56 PM, awallejr (81.55) wrote:

Personally I closed out my Sandstorm position since I didn't want to give back all my gains.  The only PM play for me is buying a little ALXDF monthly since it does seem to be sitting on a ton of assets, they are in an area that already has available infrastructure and they really are a 5 year out play.  I also buy coins (I love Morgan silver dollars especially).

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#4) On March 04, 2013 at 6:49 PM, ElCid16 (96.43) wrote:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-27/gold-miners-come-clean-on-costs-after-lost-6-years-commodities.html

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#5) On March 05, 2013 at 2:10 AM, Valyooo (99.41) wrote:

Dragon,

you know you are feeding the troll.  A sensationalist like Chris will always have a spin to make himself appear as if he is right despite his terrible track record.

 

The weird thing is that some (I bet very few these days) people still listen to him despite the fact that they have been bleeding losses. 

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#6) On March 05, 2013 at 12:39 PM, dragonLZ (99.38) wrote:

 awallejr, Thanks for commenting. It's interesting to hear what some of the people who used to invest in PM-related stocks are doing now.

ElCid16, Thanks for bringing up that article to my attention. I wonder if that changes anything in the way TMFSinchiruna is evaluating miners.

Valyooo, Where should I start? First of all, I can't find fault with TMFSinchiruna for being a sensationalist when I'm one of them (or used to be).

My problem with TMFSinchiruna is that he never wanted to admit (I'm speaking from my experience, which might not be 100% correct) that he was wrong about so many PM-related stocks that he keeps offering to his followers as "incredible values".

Any time somebody called him out on his bad calls, his replies can pretty much be summed up as "People told me I was wrong in 2008, yet I did so well with my calls since then - see my silverminer portfolio, plus you are so ignorant about gold and how the gold market works that I have nothing to discuss with you (usually he also adds "You are building a strawman")."  

Another things is, he publishes these articles that go something like >EXK an incredible value at $12<, >Don't miss out on EXK at $10<, >An incredible value: EXK at $7< (and EXK is currently at $5).

I have a suspision, a few months/years from now, he will be linking his best-call article (which might be when EXK gets down to $4), saying "I told you EXK was an incredible value at ..." (which he has been doing with SLW for years now - saying he recommnded it to his readers when it was at $3.81).

If you remember, a little bit less than a year ago when you were saying TMFSinchiruna was very wrong (PM expert who is underperforming the market during the biggest PM bull market ever) and lost people lots of money, I disagreed with you saying it's too early to draw conclusions like that.

Right now, I don't feel it's too early for such conclusions (even if his calls prove to be "great calls" sometime in the future - and you know he will bring it to our attention).

p.s. I still don't get how many people comment on his posts and articles with comments like >Chris, what do you think about SSPFSXT, a junior miner from Nigeria. The owner found something yellow in his back yard. He thinks it's gold. I just bought 2,000 shares. Possibly a ten bagger in 6 months.   p.s. Is EXK still an incredible value at these levels?...<</p>

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#7) On March 05, 2013 at 1:51 PM, Valyooo (99.41) wrote:

p.s. I still don't get how many people comment on his posts and articles with comments like >Chris, what do you think about SSPFSXT, a junior miner from Nigeria. The owner found something yellow in his back yard. He thinks it's gold. I just bought 2,000 shares. Possibly a ten bagger in 6 months.   p.s. Is EXK still an incredible value at these levels?...<</p>

 

 

Hahahahahaha, I never bust out laughing before from reading something while I was by myself, but I am dying, that is so funny 

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#8) On March 05, 2013 at 1:55 PM, Valyooo (99.41) wrote:

One time I read a book where the author said it was bullish when warren buffett bought silver, because it showed the worlds greatest investor was bullish on silver.  In the next sentence he said it was bullish when warren buffett sold, because he sold so much that it depressed prices.

 

That's right, no matter what you do, buy or sell, either way it's bullish.

 

There was a junior miner who somebody said, when the stock was trading at 36 cents, that it was a no-lose situation.  There were warrants outstanding at 70 cents.  If it goes above 70 cents, great you make money.  If it doesnt, those warrants expire worthless and the stock is free to soar!

 

Pretty sure that company does not exist anymore 

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#9) On March 06, 2013 at 1:51 AM, Tagit (54.84) wrote:

I see (Sinch) made no comment - strange? - Not.

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#10) On March 07, 2013 at 12:38 AM, dragonLZ (99.38) wrote:

Tagit, I think he made a good choice not to comment here. This wasn't a very friendly post on my part so I think he realized we would probably just end up arguing and offending each other.

I say this thinking that he probably wouldn't come here commenting with anything like "I now  realize I made a mistake suggesting GPL was a good buy at that time" or anything similar. 

I do, however, think he should somewhere post something saying "he didn't expect such huge correction in PM-mining stocks and that he was wrong".

He can still say that he thinks his picks will turn out to be profitable picks (long term) - which nobody can blame him for (he might be right), but somehow he needs to acknowledge that, for example, picking a stock at $5 (now) rather than at $12 (then) would've been much more profitable and less painful for his followers. 

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#11) On March 07, 2013 at 1:07 AM, dragonLZ (99.38) wrote:

And just to clarify one thing: I know I lost people money here on CAPS too. I remember offering advice when I had no idea what the F I was talking about (and people thought I knew because my CAPS rating was 99+).

I remember when a guy asked me about solar stocks and I said something like "I think there is a 90% chance of solar stocks doubling from here and only 10% chance of them dropping another 10-15%". Few months later, all solar stocks dropped anywhere between 70 to 90%.

Well, I guess I made a mistakes (but I hope I learned from it - since then, I don't think I gave any more "recommendations").

But there is one thing I don't do - When my picks are tanking, I don't argue with other people that I will eventually be right because I'm focused on a long term view. I also don't go publishing posts saying BAC is a great value at $5, when I already told people I though BAC was a good value at $12 (which I did do - and was wrong). Things like that.

And that's one thing I don't get about TMFSinchiruna. I don't see how he can continue to offer advice to his followers when out of his last 10 picks one is profitable and other 9 are down by 50-60% (this is just my perception - the actual data might be different).

Actually, I think I know why he does that. He was doing it in 2008, and even though he was wrong short term, he turned out to be "right" in 2009 and 2010. Now he thinks that will hapen again. And it might. I don't know just like nobody else knows...

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#12) On March 07, 2013 at 9:31 PM, rofgile (99.32) wrote:

Hi DLZ,

  I also agree that some metals players have no information value and are basically a broken clock with a single message: "The precious metal boom is only just beginning!  What as gold goes to $5000/oz and silver to $200!!!".  

 Better modeling of markets shows that things revert to the mean and crises end.  Ie.. don't panic!

 Check out my precious metal call made in 2011:  http://my.fool.com/profile/goldtop11/activity.aspx

 He's been doing fairly well!

 BTW, I am getting conservative on the markets now.  I am half in cash at this point and waiting for a pullback in 2013 or 2014. And thinking about dividend paying companies. 

 -Rof 

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#13) On March 08, 2013 at 1:25 PM, tdonb (26.45) wrote:

I agree that some calls are bad, but I also think Sinch is pretty realistic about things.

I can't say for sure, but I believe he advises holding a core position and trading around that position on dips and peaks. I find he often gives signals like, "I am getting a lot of money to the side now because I don't want to be looking at these stocks at the bottom thinking about how I should have sold some at the top so I could buy now."

I beleive he knows that nothing goes straight up nor straight down.

I have done well following some of his calls. I currently own significant amounts of a lot of miners which I have gotten my original seed money out of.

I don't know; maybe You may be predicting that all these stocks are going straight down, but I don't believe that will happen just like I don't believe they will go straight up.

When I have a stock that I can pull 30% out and have absolutely no money still invested in it, I smile.

I try to read everything, and I try to make changes in my holdings when it seems wise. No one is perfect.

Thanks,

tdonb

 

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#14) On March 08, 2013 at 2:38 PM, Valyooo (99.41) wrote:

That's not exactly what he does.  When silver or gold goes up, he reveals a "new secret price target".  When gold hit his original price target , he said he "unvealed his secret price target of $2000!".  

 

Anytime his price target is hit, he moves his price target up.  What the heck kind of investing is that? 

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#15) On March 08, 2013 at 11:38 PM, HarryCarysGhost (99.68) wrote:

I don't know about that Dragon.

I Found Sinch's articles very informative. Also made quite a bit of money on GPL,SLW and Endevour. Of course Sinch didnt tell me the precise time to sell, that was my job (Silver at $50 was my clue).

Still own some of the shares free and clear, and do enjoy picking up Silver whenever I can. (found a quarter from 62, so I got that going for me which is nice:)

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#16) On March 09, 2013 at 9:41 AM, dragonLZ (99.38) wrote:

HCG, Could you please explain how did you make money on GPL and EXK following Sinch's advice.

Around GPL's explosive run at the end of February/beginning of March 2011, he was telling people he can see GPL at $9 or $12. As you probably know, GPL is now a little over $1.

You also saw above what happened with GPL at the time of his Setting the Record Straight posts, when he was telling people he's sorry they sold their shares, and that they should consider getting into GPL again.

So how is it possible you made money on GPL?

There is only two ways: you either shorted GPL or you didn't listen to Sinch's advice and you sold GPL before GPL crashed (that is, when he was telling people to buy).

Which one is it?

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#17) On March 09, 2013 at 10:47 AM, HarryCarysGhost (99.68) wrote:

Looking at my ended picks I would have sold at around $3.94 @ 4/25/11. Are you sure Sinch never mentioned them earlier. I know I heard about  the company from here.

Like I said knowing when to get out was my responsibility not his.

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#18) On March 09, 2013 at 11:12 AM, dragonLZ (99.38) wrote:

tdonb, If you say you made money following Sinch's calls, I can't argue with that.

Btw., I once said that I have never seen someone make so many great calls like TMFSinchiruna - calls on stocks that would go up like rockets as soon as he would mention them in his posts or articles. I think I said that in 2011.

However, since 2011, his calls were very bad (if you want us to go over each of his calls, we can do that but do we really want to do that?).

To me, both are facts. He was great, lately not so great. I don't see why people can't be objective.

Just because you and HCG made money on stocks that TMFSinch brought to your attention, doesn't mean you have to disregard his most recent performance (have you checked his portfolio lately?).

I never said he wasn't a great stock picker before. I'm sure people made money following his calls, but he also "urged" people to "buy into weakness" when his favorite picks started dropping in 2011. Since then, they only dropped more (some 50-70%).

Will he be "proven right" once these stocks start having huge runs in the next PM bull run? Probably.

Still, I don't think one can argue his favorite picks were very painful to hold onto in 2011-2012. 

Good luck and thanks for the very nice comment. It's great to sometimes hear "the other side". It's completely OK to disagree.

  

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#19) On March 09, 2013 at 11:23 AM, awallejr (81.55) wrote:

Well I blame no one for any losses I suffer on picks I make.  That is ultimately my decision.  I went a little overboard with PM CAPS picks that hurt my accuracy but in real life I made money from AUY, First Majestic (EXK), Sandstorm, and in time will see with ALXDF.  All courtesy of this site and Sinch.

I am starting to look at NEM only because I am liking that 4% dividend. I also am getting pretty good on Ebay when buying silver dollars.  I've learned the "art of the snipe" prettty well now heheh.

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#20) On March 14, 2013 at 3:00 PM, TheDumbMoney (43.71) wrote:

I was never so bothered by Christopher's calls as I was by his certainty and his insistence that PMs are long-term investments.  Nothing is more dangerous than certainty.  I have nothing against PMs.  The next time we are in a huge bull market that lacks fear and nobody is interested in them, I'll remember to load up, just like Jeffrey Gundlach did in 1999-2000.

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#21) On March 15, 2013 at 12:16 AM, dragonLZ (99.38) wrote:

TheDumbMoney (and others), As I mentioned above, I think Sinch made some great calls in the past and had really a great winning streak for 2 years.

The thing that bothers me is that I don't see him saying 'Oops, I was wrong about the direction of the PM market when I told you it's a great time to buy 2 years ago'. I think he should do that even if he thinks soon he'll be right again. He just keeps posting these 'now it's really a great time to get into thse PM miners on the cheap' (disregarding that they are continuing to get cheaper).  

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#22) On March 15, 2013 at 1:02 AM, NOTvuffett (< 20) wrote:

@dragonLZ,

 Dude, did Sinchi kill your favorite dog or something?  Why do you have such a hard-on for this guy?

Although I usually differ from awalljr. on idealogical points, I think he said it best- we are all responsible for our own decisions.  In the stock market, you will pick some winners and some losers.  I guess the most important thing is to learn how to manage risk. 

 

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#23) On March 15, 2013 at 12:08 PM, awallejr (81.55) wrote:

I usually differ from awalljr. on idealogical points,

Most do ;p  But when I come to this site I try to get/give ideas, either ideological or investment specific.  I may regret making a pick but the key is to use that mistake and learn from it.

I still urge people to have some PM exposure all the time, either through stocks or hard assets.  Personally I love coins because you get a 2fer with them, melt value and numismatic value.  And so far I have made money on most of the PM stocks I made courtesy of this site.  My only exposure as I said is to ALXDF (again courtesy of Sinch) which I add to monthly.

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#24) On March 15, 2013 at 10:35 PM, NOTvuffett (< 20) wrote:

 

Hey awalljr.I included the above images because you experessed an interest in numismatics.  If you told most people that the USA at one time minted a gold $3 coin, they would say "give me some of what you are smoking".

I am too lazy to check it myself, but WIKI says that the weight was .1451 troy oz. of a 90% gold alloy  .At the time it was minted, the melt value was less than the face value. Anyway you slice it, just the value of the metal is about $200 nowadays.

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#25) On March 15, 2013 at 10:37 PM, NOTvuffett (< 20) wrote:

d'oh, the images didn't come across, lol.

 

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#26) On March 16, 2013 at 11:19 AM, awallejr (81.55) wrote:

Well there was the $21/2 gold coin, .1209 troy ounce, but if you have any especially under 1834 date you'd be nuts to melt it heheh.

I like silver dollars a lot because you actually can get lucky and buy some near melt value.  I would make like 30 coin bids at melt value (factoring in shipping costs) on ebay and then go to bed.  Once in awhile you can get lucky and win a bid.

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#27) On March 16, 2013 at 10:26 PM, NOTvuffett (< 20) wrote:

Hey awallejr,

 As a kid, or a young man, I was an avid coin collector. Maybe the worst investment decision I ever made was not buying a dozen $20 St. Gaudens that were offered to me. 

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#28) On March 17, 2013 at 12:54 AM, awallejr (81.55) wrote:

Hindsight is always 20/20 ;(

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#29) On March 29, 2013 at 5:12 PM, HarryCarysGhost (99.68) wrote:

Hey Dragon

This article sums up Sinch's posistion-

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/03/29/everything-you-need-to-know-about-gold-and-silver.aspx

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#30) On April 02, 2013 at 1:19 PM, dragonLZ (99.38) wrote:

Harry, I don't what exactly do you mean with "this sums up Sinch's position"?

What position? That the game is rigged or something else? (I didn't read the article in full but did see he now thinks "the game is rigged").

Btw., Have you ever wondered how come Sinch never mentioned his 16 core positions his article disussing how he lost money investing in PM miners in 2012 (don't have tim eto look for the link but will do it later)?

In that article he says (and I'm paraphrasing): "Yes, I lost money in 2012. Yup, It's possible, even in this huge secular bull market in precious metals, to lose money investing in PM mining stocks."

Then he goes to discuss the top stocks he picked for 2012, which lost quite a bit of value, but not terribly. He made it look like "I lost money, but it wasn't too bad" (he even had a few winners in there).

But how come he never discussed in that article his "16 core positions" he was touting while he was doing great in 2009 and 2010?

Is it possible that every year he only owns the stocks he picks as his top picks for the year? What happened to the "core" positions? He sells them each year?

And do you know that most of his "16 core positions" lost 50% or more of their value in 2011 and/or 2012: GPL, AXU. EXK, SVM, IAG, AG,...?

How come those never got mentioned?

p.s.

As far as I know, he had no problems having posts like "How much money did I make you?" during the time when the game wasn't rigged and he was making very good calls?

Where is now the post "How much money did I lose you telling you SVM was a great buy at $8, or GPL was a great buy at $4, EXK was..., AG, was...,AXU, was..., BRD was..., CDY was..., IAG was..."?

If you ask me, he's not a very honest analyst (and I don't get it how pople don't see it). 

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#31) On April 02, 2013 at 1:43 PM, dragonLZ (99.38) wrote:

Ultimately, how you judge my performance as a stock picker in the gold mining industry during 2012 will depend upon your preferred measuring stick. My top 10 picks for 2012, which I presented to investors in this two-part series last December, look poised to close the year with a slight loss that currently comes in at (2.2%) for an equal-weighted average. While of course I am relieved that I outperformed the relevant industry benchmark ETFs, I am deeply dissatisfied with my failure to outperform both the gold price itself and the S&P 500. After all, for all the inherent risk associated with exposure to miners, there must be a commensurate reward to justify the risk. Unfortunately, in 2012, that just wasn't the case. Let's take a look at some of my individual picks to see if we can discern what went wrong.

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#32) On April 02, 2013 at 1:44 PM, dragonLZ (99.38) wrote:

Before I set out to issue my top gold stock recommendations for 2013, I believe it's my duty to inform you that I lost money with gold in 2012. Yes, it's true: Even in the midst of a powerful secular bull market like the one that's still in place for gold, it's entirely possible to have down years in which the gold miners at large fail to deliver market-beating returns.

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#33) On April 02, 2013 at 1:46 PM, dragonLZ (99.38) wrote:

The two previous "comments" came from Sinch's article "Keeping them HONEST".

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#34) On April 02, 2013 at 8:22 PM, HarryCarysGhost (99.68) wrote:

Ok, Ok I just thought you'd want to say goodbye- Really wasn't looking to further the argument.

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/my-final-motley-fool-article/810265

After all even Sherlock Holmes had his nemesis Moriarty.

Cheers to both you and Sinch. Dragon theres a reason I keep you both on my favorites list :)

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#35) On April 03, 2013 at 11:56 AM, miteycasey (30.51) wrote:

Please don't feed the trolls...

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#36) On April 06, 2013 at 2:55 PM, dragonLZ (99.38) wrote:

HCG, sorry if I came accross as wanting to "argue" with you. I hope you know I have nothing against you. I also don't have anything against you defending TMFSinchiruna's record.

I might not show it with my comments, but I actually like when people are willing to express an oposing view. 

I just get a little bit too "emotional" when talking about TMFSinchiruna, that's all. 

And just to make it clear one more time, TMFSinch had a great record in 2009, 2010, and first parts of 2011. I have never seen here on CAPS that someone made so many picks that would go up 100%+ in matter of weeks (even days) following his recommendations.

I just dodn't get it why people now are not willing to admit that for the last two years his record stinks. In Fall of 2011, I remember him telling his followers correction in PM mining stocks is over and that they should be "backing up the truck". Most of his recommendations are now 50%+ lower than back then. Or just take a look at his portfolio. I dodn't see what's there to argue about...

(Ooops, I'm starting again...).

HCG, I hope you are having a great weekend, and I wish you best of luck with your real-life picks.

p.s. Sorry it took me so long to reply. I'm trying to stay away from CAPS as much as possible.

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#37) On April 16, 2013 at 11:57 AM, goldminingXpert (29.46) wrote:

Was swinging by to drop a green thumb on GPL and stumbled on this ironically enough.

Bull markets make people look like geniuses. But the last two years have set the record straight on TMFSinchy. All his top picks, his GPL, his SVM, his Copper Fox, all blown to bits. I hope he has learned some valuable lessons that he can apply for when gold and silver turn up again -- in particular about not trusting management teams that bs shareholders constantly.

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