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XMFSinchiruna (27.64)

How to Keep Your Financial Head Above Water

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33

December 02, 2011 – Comments (24) | RELATED TICKERS: AUQ , PPP , SLW

Here's my take on this week's frenzy of monumental macroeconomic developments:

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2011/11/30/how-to-keep-your-financial-head-above-water.aspx

Your thoughts are most welcome.

Although commodity equities could conceivably succumb to additional rounds of indiscriminate panic selling like that which gripped markets for portions of this year, the inevitable resumption of relative strength in the stocks of bulk commodity producers strikes me as one of the few financial scenarios I can look to with any substantial degree of confidence. While leaving my core positions untouched, I will look to build my own cash position into this latest rally in order to increase my commodity exposure into any forthcoming market malaise. For a steady flow of ideas as to which commodity stocks and sectors look attractive, please be sure to bookmark my article list. I maintain a particularly bullish long-term demand outlook for copper and metallurgical coal, so Teck Resources (NYSE: TCK ) -- which mines them both in droves -- looks like a nice play to me. But as deep as the recent correction in copper equities dove, even a sector ETF like the First Trust ISE Global Copper Index Fund (NYSE: ETF ) gained allure, and I intend to stick with my corresponding bullish CAPScall. For a more targeted exposure to coal, I consider Peabody Energy (NYSE: BTU ) the undisputed king.

Fools may have noticed that gold and silver rebounded strongly Wednesday as markets digested all this new information, and certainly a portion of that strength relates to the sudden drop in the U.S. dollar that accompanied a general reversion to "risk-on" mode. But gold and silver are not "risk-on" assets, and to view them that way is to misunderstand them completely. To the contrary, they are the ultimate safe-haven assets while governments continue to address this debt crisis with ever-increasing mounds of debt. My precious-metal CAPScalls have served me well since I created my CAPS portfolio in 2006, and everything I have observed on the world's macroeconomic stage since that time has materially enhanced the long-term outlook for the prices of these metals. The recent pledge of currency liquidity from the major central banks -- or, more precisely, the very real systemic risks that precipitated the move -- lends further support to the outlook. The additional borrowing that will be required to expand the lending capacity of the IMF is, very clearly, bullish for gold and silver. For those seeking shelter from the unavoidable consequences of this massive worldwide blitz of debt issuance, gold and silver will have no peer. I consider cash an important defensive allocation as well, but I simply believe investors cannot afford to eschew gold and silver. Aurico Gold (NYSE: AUQ ) and Primero Mining (NYSE: PPP ) continue to top my list of favorite gold stocks. Goldcorp (NYSE: GG ) looks best to me among the major producers, while its brainchild Silver Wheaton (NYSE: SLW ) is bound to enjoy explosive profit growth going forward.

The floodwaters of toxic debt contagion have grown too high for investors to remain dry, but with a careful eye toward anticipating some key implications of the mess, I believe savvy Fools will continue to swim in the right direction when they swim toward some allocation to cash, precious metals, and select bulk commodities. It's bound to be a wild ride, and I look forward to discussing the journey with you once we're back in dry land. In the meantime, consider sounding off in the comments section below to indicate the direction in which you intend to swim.

24 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On December 02, 2011 at 11:30 AM, XMFSinchiruna (27.64) wrote:

P.S. responses from the community have been overwhelming with respect to my mention of a possible informal e-mail list to keep you all as well informed as I can. I had no idea how many lurkers were here in the blogs. :)  Please be patient with me ... this is an idea that began just last week as a sudden brainstorm. Those who haven't yet signed up, please send me an e-mail at sinchiruna@cox.net

I wish I had time to reply individually to all who wrote, but there are just too darn many of you. :) Please just know I am forever grateful for your readership.

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#2) On December 02, 2011 at 11:36 AM, kdakota630 (29.45) wrote:

TMFSinchiruna

I consider you an invaluable resource for stocks in an industry that I'm interested in, which is why I signed up.

I'm a father of four kids, all of which are under the age of 7.  Also, I'm self-employed, working 40-65 hours a week, which when I'm not there I'm at home watching the kids.  I simply don't have time to find most of the quality stocks that you point out to the community.  The vast majority of us here probably never would've even heard of Great Panther Silver, Copper Fox, Alexandria Minerals without you bringing them to our attention, much less knowing their quality.

I always do my own DD once you've mentioned them, but you're the best at finding them.

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#3) On December 02, 2011 at 11:51 AM, XMFSinchiruna (27.64) wrote:

This is very interesting:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Silver-Bull-Announces-US-7-5-prnews-590560143.html?x=0

Love the line-up of buyers, from mgt to CDE. Good sign.

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#4) On December 02, 2011 at 11:55 AM, XMFSinchiruna (27.64) wrote:

Thanks kdak!

It means long hours plastered to my computer screen, but it's so worth it to know that it adds value to this community. All my best to you and yours for the holiday season!

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#5) On December 02, 2011 at 2:36 PM, SN3165 (< 20) wrote:

i might have to buy based solely on the name!

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#6) On December 02, 2011 at 10:04 PM, skypilot2005 (< 20) wrote:

Good read:

http://www.miningweekly.com/article/silver-miners-should-store-reserves-in-the-metal-not-cash-says-sprott-2011-11-30

Silver miners should store reserves in the metal not cash, says Sprott

Sky Pilot

Official Web Link Assistant to Sinch

 

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#7) On December 03, 2011 at 11:53 AM, eeibbay (< 20) wrote:

I would just like to agree with kdakota's comments above.

And a further comment on silver versus cash reserves. May be an issue if you have to pay smelting fees...

http://www.stockhouse.com/Community-News/2011/Dec/1/Stockhouse-Movers---Shakers--Eric-Sprott-beats-the

 

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#8) On December 03, 2011 at 11:59 AM, eeibbay (< 20) wrote:

Apologies for the double post but I seem to remember skypilot getting Sandstorm available on the CAPS system. I have finally managed to get SNDXF on the system but can't get STTYF or CPFXF to be recognised. Any help much appreciated, skypilot..

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#9) On December 03, 2011 at 5:41 PM, 100ozRound (29.36) wrote:

They're there but not currently ratable because of certain criteria they don't meet

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#10) On December 04, 2011 at 6:39 AM, skypilot2005 (< 20) wrote:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/nevada-sunrise-gold-corp-pilot-gold-to-begin-drilling-at-kinsley-mountain-2011-11-10-51420

 

Nevada Sunrise Gold Corp.: Pilot Gold to Begin Drilling at Kinsley Mountain “During September, 2011, Pilot Gold purchased the Mining Option Agreement to enter into a Joint Venture at Kinsley Mountain with Nevada Sunrise from Animas Resources Ltd. CA:ANI +15.15% . The Kinsley Mountain property consists of 141 claims covering a land area of 2,807 acres (1,136 hectares) on BLM land in the Kinsley Mountains in southeast Elko County, Nevada. The property lies roughly 45 miles (75 kilometers) southeast of the Long Canyon property where Pilot Gold's geologic team, as part of Fronteer Gold Inc., defined a significant gold resource in what is now recognized as an emerging gold district. The stratigraphic intervals hosting mineralization at Kinsley Mountain are the same horizons that host mineralization at Long Canyon.” 11/10/11

Sky Pilot

Official Web Link Assistant to Sinch

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#11) On December 04, 2011 at 8:06 PM, skypilot2005 (< 20) wrote:

"This is very interesting:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Silver-Bull-Announces-US-7-5-prnews-590560143.html?x=0

Love the line-up of buyers, from mgt to CDE. Good sign."

FYI:

*NOTE: METALLINE MINING COMPANY (NYSE Amex: MMG, TSX: MMZ) HAS CHANGED ITS NAME AND SYMBOLS TO SILVER BULL RESOURCES, INC. (NYSE Amex: SVBL, TSX: SVB) as of MAY 2, 2011

Metalline Mining Company (MMG) AMEX: Basic Materials

http://www.silverbullresources.com/s/management.asp

 

Sky Pilot

Official Web Link Assistant to Sinch

 

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#12) On December 05, 2011 at 6:41 AM, skypilot2005 (< 20) wrote:

On December 03, 2011 at 11:59 AM, eeibbay (20.60) wrote:

"Apologies for the double post but I seem to remember skypilot getting Sandstorm available on the CAPS system. I have finally managed to get SNDXF on the system but can't get STTYF or CPFXF to be recognised. Any help much appreciated, skypilot.."

 Try STTYF.PK & CPFXF.PK. The "pink sheet" symbols.

 

Sky Pilot

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#13) On December 05, 2011 at 3:29 PM, ikkyu2 (99.27) wrote:

Sinchi,

Whenever I have an investment thesis I believe in strongly, every so often I challenge myself to think:  "What could make this wrong?  What, specifically, could make me back off buying this thesis, and instead want to sell it?"

Following your lead, but really following my own due diligence and conviction, I've increased my PM and miners stake to about 15% of my portfolio, and so I tried that exercise this weekend.  "What confluence of global circumstances - what situations - what metrics - would have to change, at this time, to make me into a PM bear?"

I wonder if you'd also consider taking this challenge on - even if it was just a thought-experiment; even if you went away (as I did this weekend) still more confident that the thesis was right?  I find every one of your posts educational and one like this would be very much so, I think.

Apologies if you've already done this and I missed it. 

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#14) On December 05, 2011 at 11:24 PM, skypilot2005 (< 20) wrote:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Rye-Patch-Expands-Oreana-ccn-907816595.html?x=0

 

Rye Patch Expands Oreana Trend Holdings Stakes Mining Claims on Existing Gold and Silver Resources 12/5/11

“Rye Patch Gold identified open locatable public lands and staked claims covering portions of the Rochester and Nevada Packard gold and silver mines and their resource inventory - approximately 400 unpatented mining claims covering 30.3 square kilometres. An unknown portion of the Rochester and Nevada Packard resources along with numerous gold-silver targets are within the newly staked ground.

The claim maintenance fee is a mandatory fee paid yearly on or before August 31 of each year. Coeur Rochester, Inc., a wholly-owned subsidiary of Coeur d'Alene Mines (TSX:CDM.TO - News)(NYSE:CDE - News), failed to pay the mandatory claim maintenance fee payment to the BLM rendering its 541 unpatented mining claims conclusively forfeited and void on September 1, 2011. The lands with the forfeited mining claims became open to entry and the location of new mining claims by any third party. Rye Patch identified the open ground and located unpatented mining claims during October and November 2011. Rye Patch completed the monumentation of its mining claims in November 2011. Rye Patch informed the senior management of Coeur d'Alene Mines of the location of the mining claims on November 28, 2011.”

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#15) On December 06, 2011 at 12:55 PM, skypilot2005 (< 20) wrote:

http://www.snl.com/irweblinkx/doc.aspx?iid=4288058&did=13809102

Brigus Gold FYI

 

 

 

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#16) On December 06, 2011 at 12:58 PM, skypilot2005 (< 20) wrote:

http://www.snl.com/Cache/12253738.pdf?O=3&IID=4288058&OSID=9&FID=12253738

Brigus Gold FYI II

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#17) On December 06, 2011 at 10:05 PM, skypilot2005 (< 20) wrote:

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Rye-Patch-Files-Lawsuit-ccn-3051571177.html?x=0

Rye Patch Files Lawsuit Against Subsidary of Coeur d'Alene Mines

 

Sky Pilot

Official Web Link Assistant to Sinch

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#18) On December 08, 2011 at 1:44 PM, SN3165 (< 20) wrote:

UGH ... Blogs of course are not working! Wanted to post this:

  @font-face { font-family: "Times"; }@font-face { font-family: "Cambria"; }p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal { margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: "Times New Roman"; }p { margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 10pt; font-family: "Times New Roman"; }div.Section1 { page: Section1; }

Luna Gold Corp. (TSXV-LGC/BVL-LGC) ("Luna Gold" or the "Company") is pleased to announce a significant mineral resource update at the Aurizona gold mine in Brazil.

 

Measured and Indicated gold resources now total 78.0 million tonnes at 1.26 g/t Au or 3.17 million ounces gold, an increase of 250% from the previous mineral resource estimate published in January 2009. Inferred gold resources now total 15.2 million tonnes at 1.47 g/t Au or 0.72 million ounces gold, an increase of 79% from the January 2009 mineral resource estimate.

 

This is great, great news for Sandstorm as well, which of course, owns a 17 percent stream on Aurizona.Remember they are not required to pay any capital requirements for development! 

 

As for Luna they do have a lot of shares outstanding, but they are certainly worth a look. Luna aims to ramp up to 100k annually next year at Aurizona

 

 

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#19) On December 08, 2011 at 4:51 PM, Sturmudgeon (< 20) wrote:

Do any of you wish to comment on the following:?

Barnhardt.biz     and    Market-Ticker.org  and their prognostications and how it might impact those of us holding/investing in these various small mining companies?

thanks.

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#20) On December 08, 2011 at 5:54 PM, skypilot2005 (< 20) wrote:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Rye-Patch-Announces-Results-ccn-2425119241.html?x=0

 

Rye Patch Announces Results of 2011 Lincoln Hill Drill Program 12/8/11

Sky Pilot

Official Web Link Assistant to Sinch

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#21) On December 08, 2011 at 6:02 PM, skypilot2005 (< 20) wrote:

On December 08, 2011 at 1:44 PM, SN3165 (< 20) wrote:

 "This is great, great news for Sandstorm as well, which of course, owns a 17 percent stream on Aurizona.Remember they are not required to pay any capital requirements for development! "

http://www.sandstormgold.com/s/NewsReleases.asp?ReportID=495248

 

December 08, 2011
Sandstorm Gold Announces A 250% Increase In Measured And Indicated Resources At Luna Gold's Aurizona Mine

 

Sky Pilot

Official Web Link Assistant to Sinch

 

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#22) On December 08, 2011 at 8:54 PM, skypilot2005 (< 20) wrote:

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page32?oid=141072&sn=Detail&pid=102055

 

Rye Patch seizes golden opportunity on Coeur d'Alene's claim snafu

 

12/6/11

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#23) On December 10, 2011 at 9:16 AM, skypilot2005 (< 20) wrote:

12/9/11

China Gold International’s CSH Gold Mine Awarded Top 10 Most Productive Gold Mine in China

http://www.chinagoldintl.com/i/pdf/2011-12-09_NR.pdf

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#24) On December 10, 2011 at 2:47 PM, Sturmudgeon (< 20) wrote:

This is a bit 'off-topic"...

BRD dropped Friday... is this likely because Calais has not yet paid back the 10 million??

Comments??

Thanks,

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