HTO: Great week, first month
I've been beating the market by a couple % a year based on a system that evolved from almost entirely intuitive to about 70% quant, 30% intuitive. I did some research last year to try to improve my returns and developed a new system that is about 90% quant, 10% or less intuitive (where "intuitive" is the sum total of everything I know about everything). It was working so well in testing that I decided to just jump in whole hog and spent the first two months of the year transitioning to a HTO (high turnover) portfolio that would use this method while holding 24-33 stocks for an average duration of 2-5 months (I have other holdings outside of HTO and HTO is in an IRA so s-t capital gains are not an issue).
March was my first full month though I was still finishing up and had more transactions than I plan to have in the future (my plan calls for a disciplined approach of selling my two lowest scoring stocks each week, regardless of returns and replacing them with two new picks. the total # of stocks determines the average holding period which is still a work in progress).
For the last week (4 days) of March, HTO beat the index by +1.77% to +0.71%. That brought the month totals to +6.32% to +3.40%. On a daily basis I beat the market 16-3 with one tie.
One month doesn't prove much but it matches my testing and gives me a little cushion if April isn't so kind. I'd be plenty happy to average 1% more than the market each month (beat the index by 12%/year? sure!).
My ten worst performers are down an average of 5%, my ten best are up an average of 24%. Average holding time = approx 7 weeks.
I sold BKMU and AGESY this week and bought MX, ANCX and WX.
Current holdings: MX, ANCX, WX, SWY, ADUS, ARII, MPC, SYMC, CLRO, OTTR, HSNGY, DTEGY, SRT, NRF, CRD-B, CLMT, AHS, TLSNY, LCI, UBSH, PFLT, CCUR, PTP, PJC, CFI, TSBK, ROCK, FIBK, CYOU, SMP, FFCH, WHR.