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HUGE Bull Market in MEDIA stocks...

Recs

4

October 06, 2009 – Comments (16) | RELATED TICKERS: GCI , MNI , BLC

 

Just today:

ETM, $6.40, up 17.4%

SALM, $2.60, up 12.1%

CMLS, $2.39, up 27.1%

SSP, $7.30, up 10.4%

GCI, $12.62, up 6.6%

BLC, $5.30, up 7.8%

MEG, $8.62, up 7.4%

MNI, $2.48, up 6.9%

LEE, $2.51, up 3.3%

SBGI, $3.28, up 11.2% 

JRN, $3.85, up 2.2%

GTN, $2.01, down 2.0%

SBSA, $0.59, up 34.1%

(don't want to include ROIA, $1.74, up 45%

 

Now, these same stocks with either their 6-Months or 3-Months Return as of last week Friday:

ETM, 343% (6M) 

SALM, 337% (6M) 

CMLS, 126% (3M) 

SSP, 251% (3M) 

GCI, 364% (6M), 258% (3M) 

BLC, 556% (6M), 173% (3M) 

MEG, 313% (3M) 

MNI, 329% (3M)

LEE, 614% (6M) 273% (3M)

SBGI, 156% (3M) 

JRN, 259% (3M)

GTN, 302% (3M)

SBSA, 193% (6M)

 

p.s. And the good news is: It's not too late to join the party... :) 

16 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On October 06, 2009 at 12:27 AM, dragonLZ (99.26) wrote:

This was written a few days ago:

#3) On September 30, 2009 at 3:24 PM, dragonLZ (97.99) wrote:

leohaas, you are wrong on both statements (made in your first and third sentence)...

A year from now (or two), you will be reading about media stocks being some of the biggest winners in this bull market...

Just to name a few: GCI (of course), MNI, BLC, MEG...

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#2) On October 06, 2009 at 12:30 AM, dragonLZ (99.26) wrote:

#54) On September 11, 2009 at 12:02 AM, dragonLZ (97.99) wrote:

SBGI: The bet is on.

p.s. Haven't you noticed I like media stocks right now. Like them a lot. I own GCI in RL (bought around $3), MNI (one of my 40%-up-the-next-day stocks, and intend to buy more as I think it's making a move to $3+, then some more), and I just recently added GTN. I also added BLC to my CAPS portfolio two days ago, and it's already up 17%...

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#3) On October 06, 2009 at 12:37 AM, dragonLZ (99.26) wrote:

Update: BLC is up 62% since I added it to my CAPS portfolio, GCI up 175%, MNI up 23%...

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#4) On October 06, 2009 at 12:40 AM, chevionUSA (< 20) wrote:

Media stocks will crash even further because companies are going bankrupt and have no money for advertisements. Stock holders and public get angry if companies spend money in advertisement ( look at AIG).

Unless Chinese companies start advertising in U.S. media don't see how any media company will gain in value.

To top that off I think even netertainment companies will suffer.

I was in Vegas this last few days. You know things are bad when Vegas a hub for MGM, gambling, and other sort of entertainment is going back to being a hub for prostitutes...and that's not all. I was approced by many prostitutes when I was walking around and I couldn't believe what I was hearing.

This one young girl ( early 20s) grabed my hand and put it on her privates and said I can have it for 50 bucks.

I was in shock to see our younger generation to be so desperate to start doing stuff like that as such low prices.

I have heard stuff like that from my freinds who visited Asia or Mexico...but not in this ocuntry...not at those prices.

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#5) On October 06, 2009 at 12:52 AM, dragonLZ (99.26) wrote:

Chevion, you are just overly pesimistic, that's all.

After rain comes sun...(this should be nothing new to anyone)...

p.s. Have you ever wondered why your chart looks like a straight line during this HUGE bull market? If you stay negative, you'll miss it alltogether. Just trying to help...

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#6) On October 06, 2009 at 12:56 AM, dragonLZ (99.26) wrote:

#12) On September 29, 2009 at 12:51 PM, dragonLZ (97.99) wrote:

I know this might be really embarassing (to publicly proclaim love to someone), but I just have to do it:

GCI, I love you. I LOVE YOU, I LOVE YOU, I LOOOOOVE YOU.

And by your 17% jump today (or $1.72, on high volume, on a down day for the market),  I know you love me too.

So let's be in love forever, my dearest love of all (forever or at least until you get up to $35, whichever comes first :).

Please, please, please don't disappoint me, and I promise I won't disappoint you either. I will never, never, never let you out of my arms again (maybe a small position at $25)...

GCI, I love you, and I know you love me too.

I know by your jumps yesterday and today, you are showing me appreciation for me sticking with you through the tough times. I know you are greatful I picked you up when you were at the bottom (contemplating suicide) at around $2, when other guys were running away from you...

But even then, I knew you were a jewel just like you are today (you were giving me hints by whispering your volume story into my ear :), you just needed some time to get up and spread your wings again...

GCI, I LOVE YOU! 

p.s. I know after you go up another $1 -2 this week (or so), you will probably pull back some (being so shy as you are), but I know you will shine again on the day of the big announcement...

p.s. of p.s.  I love you... 

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#7) On October 06, 2009 at 1:23 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Thanks for the heads up, I'l keep an eye on these.

I was mad I didn't go into Brocade.  I have configured many of their switches and routers, they are nice and decently priced.  I thought 2x earnings was pretty low for them.  Then of course, they pop!  ugh!

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#8) On October 07, 2009 at 12:26 AM, dragonLZ (99.26) wrote:

EMMS, Emmis Broadcasting Corp., which I didn't include in my list, was up 48% today (closing price $0.99).

Is there anyone left who doesn't belive in my Media-Bull-Market Story...?

p.s. EMMS was brought to my attention by NoDoughBro in my post about GTN.  

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#9) On October 08, 2009 at 1:24 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Not going to hate on this call, but everyone has missed the pop in price, so if you go in now, you're chasing returns.

Volume is way more than GTN, which I've gone in pretty heavily on, their volume may hit 500,000 on avg since going in 3 weeks ago.  When I went in, the volume was averaging over 1.7million shares, now that number has plummeted by 500,000 in a short time.

I'm stuck in GTN but once I can make a bit of money, I'm out.  Just too much speculation for a company that hasn't turned a profit 7 out of the last 11 quarters, and has missed estimates by an average of 41% per quarter in this span.  I don't know whose funding this money pit, but lets hope they don't go bankrupt while i'm holding the bag :)

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#10) On October 08, 2009 at 5:37 PM, dragonLZ (99.26) wrote:

jason, at least you learned 3 lessons:

1. Don't invest in cheap stocks of unprofitable companies if you can't stomach the wild rides in their share price

2. Don't invest in a stock you don't believe in (or think it's a loser)

3. Don't buy a stock that's up 500% in 6 weeks without waiting for a (certain) pullback

p.s. If you can't sleep because of a stock, sell it right away.

p.s.2  Tonight, I will be posting my STRONG BUY rec for GTN...  

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#11) On October 08, 2009 at 6:09 PM, dragonLZ (99.26) wrote:

p.s.3 Forgot to say: For you, the rating is still STRONG SELL.

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#12) On October 09, 2009 at 4:35 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

haha

GTN went up 65% after hours. Did you see this?

Wow.

It figures, I sold a bunch of it yesterday, but have about 6000-7000 shares.

That will be nice if it sticks.

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#13) On October 09, 2009 at 4:36 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Correction, I have 8093 shares bought in at roughly 2.40 on average.

Nice.

Hope that holds true monday when the market opens.

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#14) On October 12, 2009 at 10:36 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Bleh, well the 65% it went up during after hours came and went, because it opened at the same price as it closed Friday and is currently 1.84% down.

What a bummer, thought It would have hit it big with the after hours move.  Oh well, can only dream I guess :)

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#15) On October 12, 2009 at 10:56 PM, dragonLZ (99.26) wrote:

Let me post this here as well:

#3) On October 12, 2009 at 10:12 PM, dragonLZ (99.01) wrote:

jason,

"If you build it, they will come."

Think about it. Come up with a sound strategy, be positive, and be patient.

Good Luck!

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#16) On October 14, 2009 at 12:39 AM, dragonLZ (99.26) wrote:

EMMS was up 26% today. It's up 320% since beginning of August.

 

Below is the text of an email message that Jeff Smulyan sent to Emmis employees regarding 2nd Quarter earnings:

Dear Emmis employees,

This morning, we’re reporting financial results for the second fiscal quarter, covering June, July and August. The good news is that, although the problems with the economy, turmoil in our industries and our own bumps in the road have demanded a lot of attention, we do have improvements to report.

Before I talk about our progress, though, I want to put to rest some concerns you might have.

First, there’s the issue of NASDAQ delisting. I understand that merely being put on notice is unsettling, but I am confident that we have the time and means to avoid delisting. Because the trigger for delisting is months away, we believe improvements in our business could drive our stock price up in time to prevent delisting. However, if the market does not respond to our progress as we expect, we can address the problem through other means over which we have more direct control. Emmis will remain a NASDAQ firm.

Second, today we’re filing SEC documents restating our earnings from our last fiscal year and from the first quarter of this fiscal year. Certainly, “restating our earnings” sounds ominous, but our restatement solely relates to a noncash technical tax issue that has no impact on our operations. While there might be big numbers involved and a lot of paperwork being filed, I don’t see anything to worry about.

So, that leaves the good news. For the last few months, we’ve seen sequential improvements in our domestic radio performance. While we’re still behind year-to-year, we’re making gains. In Q1, we were down 27 percent from the previous year; in Q2, we were down 22 percent – still negative, but an improvement. And we see continued improvements ahead. In fact, we think that, within a few months, we could see our first positive numbers since April of 2008.

What’s driving this trend? Improvements in all of our markets. Notably, our clusters in Chicago, St, Louis, Indianapolis and Austin outperformed their markets in Q2. New York is building steam, and with significant ratings improvements we expect both New York and LA to improve in the coming months. Specific bright spots include Indy’s WIBC, which earned another Marconi Award, and Chicago’s WLUP and New York’s WRXP, which both are showing major ratings and revenue improvements.

Publishing and International continue to face big challenges – with major advertisers particularly hard hit by the global economic slowdown – and they continue to work hard to meet and overcome those challenges.

One hopeful note on the horizon is that, as GM and Chrysler emerge from bankruptcy, we expect them to rely on advertising to position and push their respective brands. Other automakers, including Toyota, have already announced major marketing campaigns for later this year. Automotive is still a major category for all our business units and we expect this category to rebound in the months to come.

So, I guess my central message is this: Don't let the small challenges distract you from our big mission. As a company, we continue to manage our debt, maintain compliance with our banks and reduce expenses. What we need you to do is continue to work hard, manage your budgets and look for ways to win.

The past year has been the most difficult I've experienced, but I do see better times ahead. Certainly, we can't relax. We’ve got to keep fighting, innovating and surviving. But we are making gains. Not long ago, I said that together we could emerge from these difficult times ready for new opportunities. Now, thanks to your good work, I can say, together, we’re showing steady improvement toward that goal. Thank you. – Jeff

 

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