TMFSarahGen (99.79)

TMFSarahGen's CAPS Blog

Hugo Chavez helps my CAPS score today

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April 30, 2008 – Comments (7) | RELATED TICKERS: KRY.DL , GRZ , HL

I've been thumbs-down on a bunch of miners for weeks now. But I got an extra special bump from Venezuela's actions today. Nice big 50-60% move in KRY and a 30%+ move in GRZ. Sweet. I guess I need to go remind myself of all the other miners with Venezuelan interests.

I've always stayed away from investing my own money in Venezuela, particularly in natural resource companies. And I've tried to stay away from it in CAPS too. Too unpredictable. But this time it's not nationalization, it's just a denial of access to mining. Chavez cares about the indigenous people. I say, if you have to own a miner, own one that mostly mines in a country you can trust - Canada would be number one. South Africa is pretty safe, although they do have some electrical problems.

From Bloomberg:

Crystallex Says Venezuela Denies Las Cristinas Permit (Update1)

By Stewart Bailey

April 30 (Bloomberg) -- Crystallex International Corp. said Venezuela has denied the company's permit to continue exploration at the Las Cristinas deposit, which would become the country's largest gold mine. The shares plunged as much as 60 percent.

Crystallex said the Ministry of the Environment and Natural Resources notified Corporacion Venezolana de Guayana, the state- owned gold miner, that Crystallex's Venezuelan unit won't be authorized to continue prospecting at the site.

``The Director General cites sensitivities surrounding indigenous peoples, the small miners and the environment in the area generally known as the Imataca Forest Reserve,'' Toronto- based Crystallex said today in a statement. The company will respond ``vigorously in accordance with its legal rights to protect the interests of our shareholders.''

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7 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On April 30, 2008 at 4:54 PM, tomnsung (88.91) wrote:

Speaking of helping one's caps score, I see that on 4/28 that you ended and started picks on SOLF, SPWR, and STP. Is there an advantage to capturing a caps gain and restarting, or what is your thinking here?

Also, if you had a big caps loss on a stock that you were positive on, would it be better to end the pick and re-start it, or just maintain your pick?

Thanx for your blog and insights. Tom

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#2) On April 30, 2008 at 6:09 PM, TMFSarahGen (99.79) wrote:

Hi Tom,

SOLF, SPWR and STP were all big losers for me this time around. I'd picked them last year.

By ending them as big losers, I locked in that loss, and the score on the side of having three losers. But if I'm right and they go up - even a few points - it quickly helps my %accuracy. Let's say I had 50 losers, 50 winners. By selling - I keep the 50 losers, but maybe now have 52 winners.

I think it might have taken a year to get them back positive leaving them where they were. So I restarted.

If you look at the highest ranked folks it's both points and accuracy. So repicking the same great company means getting more accuracy points.

I don't often end big loser picks, but you have to ask yourself when you think they're coming back. And if/when they do if they'll more than make up for it by beating months of the S&P.

Biotechs are some that I would almost never lock in as losers and restart, because they have a tendency to jump like crazy on a day without warnings. :)

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#3) On April 30, 2008 at 6:18 PM, MakeItSeven (40.86) wrote:

tomnsung,

I don't even know how to end and restart a pick. However, I stumbled into that a few days ago. What happened was that I had a few picks which exceeded their Time Frames and CAPS was nagging me about them so I modified their Time Frames just to stop the reminders. That makes them appear as if they had been ended and restarted. Maybe SarahGen was doing the same.

Is that the "normal" way to end and restart a pick, BTW ? I have never been able to figure that out.

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#4) On April 30, 2008 at 8:25 PM, TMFSarahGen (99.79) wrote:

When I ended my picks of STP, SPWR, SOLF - I clicked "end", and then "end my pick".

Wait 20 minutes for the pick to close. Then pick it new again.

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#5) On May 02, 2008 at 4:31 PM, madcowmonkey (< 20) wrote:

This takes up too much time for a game. I tried it for about 2 days and decided I was tired of seeing the question, are you sure you want to end blahblahblah?

Sarah- Thanks for the push into a little retail stock. Remember the high class one that had you laughing. It is up for me, don't think I would have gone there with out your posts. Thanks. Again, I don't know much about the retail stocks.

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#6) On May 04, 2008 at 9:23 PM, TMFSarahGen (99.79) wrote:

Well there are all those rebate checks in the mail, and it's mother's day coming!

Hmm, I'm trying to remember what made me laugh. Wasn't it a middle-of-the-road retail stock? Some have been doing very well lately. And with those huge short positions in retail, can be very nice.

Were you looking at JNY or NWY? I can't remember. You're not going to make me look through my own blog are you?

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#7) On May 06, 2008 at 2:17 PM, madcowmonkey (< 20) wrote:

A little JNY for me please. Yeah, you are right. Many did well. I knew what was coming after the purchase when Volcom took a big jump. Did you know that they make suits. I would have never thought that. From boardshorts/tshirts/flipflops to making a business suit. Diversified goes a long way in the clothes brands these days:)

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