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DJoshuaRubin (97.99)

Hyperfocus: Is it Time for a Single Stock Newsletter?

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October 30, 2011 – Comments (9)

Hey Fools,

The louder and more crowded the world gets, the more I appreciate the idea that less is more. I want to own virtually nothing if possible, except some digital produts - smartphone, computer, ipad, etc.  I love walking into places with zero clutter.  Zen temples, martial art dojos, empty parks always stir the deepest sense of inspiration. And no one needs to look further than the difference in design from Apple as opposed to Microsoft. We're over-informed, assaulted with noise, opinions, information, more opinions, people (just passed 7 billion - uchh) and I think most people are craving massive simplicity. 

So I would love to see more hyper-focus. That's what I'm experimenting with on my blog.  With options, it is of course possible to repeatedly invest in the same stock many times from different angles. So I would rather know a very lot about a very few stocks, than a little about many. 

I also find the media/tech space relentelessly entertaining, important to my creative work, and critical to the future of communication.  So for me the stocks most interesting are Netflix, Google, Apple, Amazon and some other media players. 

The less is more thing gets me thinking, though that a single-stock focused newsetter that relentlessly covers every concievable item related to one stock - management, products, customer service, marketing, management, board of directors level of engagement, every line item on every financial document, interviews with key players, wicked bull bear debates, anecdotal community experiences with company - every single thing. Sick arsed hyper focus. That would be cool. Not only cool, but since guessing the future is fool's game (small f), this would at least show respect for the true nature of trying to make predications in a wildly unpredictable world. 

And last but not least, just imagine how many newsletters there could be?

Regardless, I will for the forseeable future try to explore this on my CAPS blog. 

Fool On,

The Miracle, Shyster at Business

9 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On October 30, 2011 at 2:09 PM, MegaShort (99.95) wrote:

No.

The point of writing about investing is to provide high signal to noise, so it can be easily converted into investing decisions.  If you spend tens or hundreds of thousands of words on a single company, each additional word is adding very little actionable information.  It becomes noise.

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#2) On October 30, 2011 at 2:43 PM, BillyTG (32.37) wrote:

I think it's an interesting idea, if I'm understanding it right...

Are you talking about picking a stock, say Company X, and analysing it so much, as the risk and reward margins change, that you might own shares one week, and be shorting it the next? Or you could possibly have complicated calendar options?

 

If you're not talking about that, then maybe you're talking about following a select group of securities in a particular asset class and waiting until the price is right to buy. The way Warren Buffett and many hedge fund managers like Michael Burry do? I like that idea, too. 

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#3) On October 30, 2011 at 4:50 PM, truthisntstupid (95.75) wrote:

Long as they cover the good and the bad.  They're still hyping stocks I wouldn't touch with someone else's money because I think they're so overpriced. 

And bombarding your mind with an entire newsletter devoted to one stock might not be so good, especially if the folks publishing the newsletter like that stock.  Everyone is prone to suggestion, especially if they want to believe what they're reading.

Saturating one's mind with such a newsletter can't be good.

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#4) On October 31, 2011 at 1:38 AM, HarryCarysGhost (99.77) wrote:

Free your mind.. and the rest will follow...

Dude are you really considering options?

Seems like you could get burned hard, same goes with shorting.

Please tell me you did'nt open up a margin account.

Cheers.

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#5) On October 31, 2011 at 1:41 AM, BigFatBEAR (30.03) wrote:

The scary thing, I think, is that this level of focus/detail isn't the norm, even among us investment-obsessed Fools. Game on.

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#6) On October 31, 2011 at 4:25 AM, memoandstitch (< 20) wrote:

Are you talking about research reports (e.g. S&P 500's reports) or recommendations?  My understanding is that people read newsletter recommendations because they are lazy and just want to know what to buy.  Telling them more details would just be a disservice

 

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#7) On October 31, 2011 at 8:52 AM, DJoshuaRubin (97.99) wrote:

Thanks all for the response.

Megashort - understood. Yeah, there might be relativley little "actionable" information, but I think it would give an exceptional shot at making better decisions over the long haul. The theory is similar to the way Robert "Ace" Rothstein DeNiro in Casino had to know every single imaginable thing about a game before making a bet. 

BillyTG - yes, that's exactly what I'm saying.

HC Ghost - no, I have no margin account, own no individual stocks and no intention of opening one. Just playing the electric guitar of my mind in public. 

BigFatBear - This is key to my point. If I ever risk my hard-earned dough again, I want to know what color underwear the CEO is wearing, how much they're spending on lunch, etc. 

Memo - "Telling them more details would be a disservice" - I guess I would have to say, in a world of many newsletters, some would not prefer so much detail, and some, like me, would. 

 

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#8) On October 31, 2011 at 9:58 AM, rofgile (98.99) wrote:

Do all the small things matter?

I look at cable news - they have sooo many small bits of worthless information, that if you just didn't watch any of it you would be smarter.

Similarly - suppose you were covering GOOG:

If each day you announced something new or different GOOG was doing, would that help you at all? (And there is a blog that does this called BusinessInsider - though they are not hyperfocused at all, just very noisy).

I would say that knowing that much about GOOG wouldn't help you invest better.  To invest well in GOOG over the last 2 years, all you would have to do is this:
 

 Buy shares whenever below $500/share. (Using far from earnings)

 Sell shares whenever above $600/share. (Using after earnings)

---

 That's it.  Hyper-simplistic rules that would make you money.

 All the small things GOOGle does don't improve their bottom line (for a while at least).  While their profits and revenue from advertising continue to improve and be the dominant factor.

 -Rof 

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#9) On October 31, 2011 at 12:24 PM, DJoshuaRubin (97.99) wrote:

ROF - again, maybe just a personal preference. But I want to know every thing I possibly can about a stock. I see that as a real competitive advantage while making trades. If I ever bet football I want to see an analysis of the dreams of the QB, know if the RB's marriage is going well and review brain scans of any older headcoaches to monitor early onset dementia possibilities. I want every conceivable bit of information about the companies responsible for my family's financial health that I can possibly have. 'Til then, I'm in index funds.

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