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I agreed with Alstry....now what do I do???

Recs

18

September 13, 2009 – Comments (57) | RELATED TICKERS: PRE , PAR , E

Alstry gets some good advice mixed in with the hundreds of blogs he writes.  Unfortunately, it's rare that I find the wheat among the chaff. Generally I tune it out.

I do like Alstry's most recent blog....A Clarification of Alstrynomics and gave him rec. Of course this sent me into mixed emotions.  Agreeing with Alstry??

I'm fairly certain that the blog contents were a rebuttal to MotleyAnimal  or my own recent blog, referring to Permabears.  Of course there is the song that "you think this song is about you, don't you".....   so maybe it's concidence.  Either Way, in this gem of a blog, (my opinion) that Alstry wrote, it is still lacking as it stops well short of being a productive investing discussion.  There are other permabears here on Caps that have even more doom and gloom than Alstry. Abitare has been selling guns for quite awhile now.   "Again, go by you local gun store and ask about business or call and try and get into a gun class.  Gun nuts can help me here. There is no deflation in guns or ammo, again go and see for yourself." "The Keyensian cure to recession / depression has been war in the past. War = doom and gloom."

Alstry's talks of riots and deep depressions as well mixed in with fear of being turned into zombies. His most recent blog does lead to some discussion and reflection. The question is that even if we believe the economic shift will occur and we will go back to a "deleveraged savings society" what do we do about it? How do we prepare?  The interpretation of the "exaggeration" as Alstry himself called it is that the sky is falling, (it's clearer in other permabear's blogs without exaggeration).  My concern, and the concern of others is that we can adapt without putting our head in the sand.  We can't (shouldn't stop living). We need to adapt as investors. The recession is making many of us traders. If you're on the sidelines then yes your money is "safe", but inflation, the deficit, the falling dollar, each in its own cylce will eat your savings alive. Yes, we may be seeing some spotty deflation, but don't expect that to last. It can't. As productivity increased we abandoned most of our farmlands, we consume oil faster than some day we will be able to find it, and we have whole new generations that will not go from hitting up the bank of "Mom and Dad" to saving (a foreign concept) overnight.

So what do I do if I agree with Alstry, the "deleveraged savings society" blogger? How do I prepare?

As an investor/trader. I get better. I look for what the market is tossing aside. I don't take the joy ride on the beaten down stocks with negative balance sheets, high debt, and negative cash flow. IT's all the more important to be investing properly now than ever before. The rising market will lift most ships for a short time, but the ships that are full of holes will sink again. Conversely, tossing my capital into a hole in the ground (or the proverbial mattress), just isn't going to cut it in the the long run.

So what do I do if I agree with Alstry "the exaggerator"?  How do I prepare?

Add in some real permabears to this section.  At any rate, as an investor, it's hard to invest if you think the world is about to end. My ol' standy Smith and Wesson (SWHC) just can't seem to hold an upward incline. Let's get some more doom and gloom going for my gun, alchohol and ammo stocks.  Does anyone know of a company selling C-rations?   I can stimulate the economy by buying bullet proof vests for the riots to come, but really why would I get out of my cozy bomb shelter near a riot?  I suppose I could invest in Tamaflu, masks, and other swine flu items. No Alstry isn't predicting the swine flu will destroy the world, but as an investor, I may as well make a buck in something safe while waiting for the worse to happen.

So what do I do if I agree with Alstry?   We'll either I need to find the middle ground and get to work, or I need to stimulate the economy and see a Psych.  PREPARE is advice that is always good!  Prepare by becoming a better investor or if you believe the world will end soon, then prepare for the end. I'm not quite sure how you do that and it doesn't sound like much fun, but see if you can't find some way to stimulate the economy while you're at it.

I agreed with Alstry?  Yes, Alstry could reduce his blog count by 90%, include some preparedness tips, and pen some blogs like the 10% he has been penning lately with some meat to them, and I'd be giving him even more rec's.  Of course I will continue finding the HypnoToad's blogs as well and rec'ing them. Especially if I Rec Alstry's.   We have to have some balance here somewhere!

57 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On September 13, 2009 at 10:23 AM, alstry (36.32) wrote:

Let me help you understand Alstrynomics a bit better...most of my blogs are simply solid data points wrapped around a lunatic screaming blogger.

Alstry is simply a data reporting machine....reporting different data each time wrapped in noise.

Much of what you read in the mainstream press is nonsense wrapped around a seemingly rational presentation.

The mainstream press is nonsense wrapped in a rational presentations.

Alstry just trains you how do be a good filter of data...no more no less.

Alstrynomics, like my most recent post sums up that data like an attorney does at the end of trial after endless submissions of evidence.

Hope that helps as we approach the middle of 9.09.

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#2) On September 13, 2009 at 10:48 AM, alstry (36.32) wrote:

Just a quick follow up...before we can have rational discussions about conclusions and what to do...we must agree with the facts...and right now the facts are being distorted by government, the main stream media and Wall Street.

As a result, it becomes difficult to have intelligent discussions with people.  I wanted Alstry to be a fact generating machine, no more and no less and the process has been exhausting.

We have morphed into a society where we are being told less bad is good even though things are getting worse.  No society can sustain itself for very long on that foundation.  Eventually worse becomes nothing.

Here is an example from a release this morning:

DALLAS -- The U.S. airline industry is shrinking to a size not seen since the months after the 2001 terror attacks.

The airlines have been trimming flights for the past two years, matching the falling demand for air travel. Additional capacity cuts are under way at American, the nation's second-largest carrier, and at No. 3 United.

It could get worse.

Most big airlines depend heavily on a relatively small chunk of passengers who pay the highest fares, "and that's generally business travelers," says Robert Mann, an aviation consultant in Port Washington, N.Y. "If business travel doesn't rebound, we're going to see further (capacity) cuts."

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Airlines-offer-lightest-fall-apf-396346749.html?x=0&.v=4

Now here is a conclusion...we know practically every company in America is cutting back on business travel...or as economists call it, saving.

As a result, it is not hard to see things will get worse....despite what you are told from government, media or Wall Street.

Pretty soon you will realize, if we all save...practically no one will be working.  In an economy structured as ours, it can only function if a few save...unless we restructure the economy....which will be very painful for many.

Moving on, in order to draw a rational conclusion, you must understand the facts.

The facts are airlines are flying at the lightest capacity since following 9/11 and business is starting to save much more.

The conclusion, which is open to debate, is whether things will get better or worse.

If you go back and look at all my blogs...probably 90-95% of them have simply been links to facts......but for many of the Fools, they got lost in the noise....but a few saw through it.

If you go back and look at most of the headlines of the mainstream press, it is simply noise, just like Alstry, with little correlation to the facts.

The primary difference is my conclusions have been far more directionally accurate than the mainstream press...although the timing has been a bit off...primarily for a reason which we can discuss later.

If you had a background in accounting or owned a business, you would realize that the vast majority of the market cap on the S&P 500 are simply money losing zombies wrapped in a Wall Street package of nonsense. But again, that is simply a conclusion based on my analysis of the facts.

Soon 9.09 will bear out...and we will all have to adjust.

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#3) On September 13, 2009 at 11:00 AM, alstry (36.32) wrote:

Then taking the above conclusion on one step further...if companies keep saving...airlines keep cutting back...business at airports will slow...so will hotels....so will cabs and restauants.

And then those people in the above industries will start spending less and saving more.

As a result of all this savings and little spending...tax receipts to government will shrink even further...causing even more savings.

Now imagine all of this happening over a very high cost of living and a massive pile of debt which is the asset base of all of our banks, insurance companies, and pension/retirement funds.

You might as well take an economic atomic bomb and drop in on the country right now.......then imagine Benny B knows all this and is telling you we are coming out of a recession.....how well prepared do you think the nation will be for what is coming......then, rationally of course,......what do you think the reaction will be once the population finds out??????

Then ask yourself, can government ever afford to let the masses find out?????

All heavy stuff...that now will be delt with in 9.09.

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#4) On September 13, 2009 at 11:25 AM, jddubya (< 20) wrote:

I agreed with Alstry....now what do I do???

Too late, he's hijacked your blog, ruining the balance you were attempting to provide - and he did it all without addressing the good questions you present.

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#5) On September 13, 2009 at 11:30 AM, abitare (49.76) wrote:

For, the record I am not a Perma-Bear. I go with works. I started out as a Commodity bull. I became Bearish 2-3 months before the collapse and was Top Fool the day of the collapse (abitarePERFECT) although I got hit durring the last months of the commodity bubble. Google: abitare Darth Vader sensed danger.

May 27, 2008 – Comments (27) |

Like Vader I sense danger in the commodity bubble. I have closed most of my commodity longs. So it will go for the First Commodity Bears, who attacks the Commodity Bull. The first ones in will be killed (ref my MOS, MON, POT calls). The guy, who times it right here in CAPS will be a hero and Top Fool, the way the previous Top Fool arrived by underperforming all the homebuilders and residential real estate.

I am here to make money. But return of my money is the first priority and not a lot of confidence until the law is asserted  and we see some jail time for those doing all the damage to the market and US confidence.  

 

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#6) On September 13, 2009 at 11:59 AM, awallejr (77.67) wrote:

#4: "Too late, he's hijacked your blog, ruining the balance you were attempting to provide - and he did it all without addressing the good questions you present."

That comment made me laugh heheh.

And TSIF had this been true: "Alstry could reduce his blog count by 90%, include some preparedness tips, and pen some blogs like the 10% he has been penning lately with some meat to them, and I'd be giving him even more rec's." so would I, but he thinks the song is about him.

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#7) On September 13, 2009 at 2:51 PM, kaskoosek (37.09) wrote:

Alstry has good knowledge, but the problem is that he makes wrong conclusions.

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#8) On September 13, 2009 at 7:22 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

#4 Jddubya.  I deserve being hijacked. I used his name in the title. Using Alstry's name in the title is feeding him.  At least I can tell the difference betwen one of Alstry's well thought out blogs, such as the one I referenced and his random cut and pastes which make up 90% of his comments and blog subjects.

#7 Kask, Alstry proclaims to be like a lawyer in his case, points, counter points and summations. I have not meet any lawyers, though I'm certain there may be a few who are selective about the cases they chose, who doesn't make some wrong conclusions.  Some clearly more wrong than others.

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#9) On September 14, 2009 at 12:17 AM, motleyanimal (51.77) wrote:

Alstry writes:

"Just a quick follow up...before we can have rational discussions about conclusions and what to do...we must agree with the facts...and right now the facts are being distorted by government, the main stream media and Wall Street."

Then we have a significant problem here since all of the "facts" that Alstry uses in his blogs come from these sources.

As a result, it becomes difficult to have intelligent discussions with people.  I wanted Alstry to be a fact generating machine, no more and no less and the process has been exhausting.

Except that Alstry does not generate facts, he only accumulates facts from the very sources he disparages as distorted.

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#10) On September 14, 2009 at 12:27 AM, topsecret09 (44.31) wrote:

   What ?????

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#11) On September 14, 2009 at 12:33 AM, topsecret09 (44.31) wrote:

 

Except that Alstry does not generate facts, he only accumulates facts from the very sources he disparages as distorted.     What????

  Give some examples........  

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#12) On September 14, 2009 at 2:11 PM, motleyanimal (51.77) wrote:

Nearly all his blogs are copied excerpts and links to mainstream media and government statistics. Read this recent blog where he posts 4 comments to his own blog and excerpts AP stories  and a McClatchy newspaper. He can't stay on topic and spews out unrelated bad news like a puppy with diarrhea.

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=258918&t=01002130057764754273

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#13) On September 14, 2009 at 2:27 PM, outoffocus (23.49) wrote:

As I mentioned on Alstry's other blog, the best way to prepare in a deleveraging society is to deleverage yourself. Otherwise you will be left holding the bag. I guess the next best thing to do is to not take on (or limit) new debt.  In a potentially rising interest rate environment, you want to be making 5% on your money, not paying 7% on your debt.  The third tip would be to become more entreprenuerial.  I dont consider myself a permabear, but I do believe the days of obtaining and maintaining a middle class lifestyle by simply going to school and getting a good job are coming to an end.  If one wants to be truly prosperous, they must be willing to start their own business. Once again, if you are leveraged up to your eyeballs in debt (this includes mortgages) your ability to start your own business is grossly limited.

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#14) On September 14, 2009 at 2:40 PM, prose976 (< 20) wrote:

For all Alstry's bombast, he has NEVER provided any guidance with such eloquence and truth.  The again, outoffocus, this advice that you provide here is advice for all time, prior to and following the recession.

But thanks for posting it!

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#15) On September 14, 2009 at 2:42 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Yet the market keeps chug, chug, chugging along.

I'm not sure how, but we are now in the green from, at one point, 60 points down.  Dow 10,000 here we come.  The bigger they get, the harder they fall.

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#16) On September 15, 2009 at 3:08 PM, Tagit (64.98) wrote:

Hey Tsif

Off the subject - what's your take on epex - appears. to be .57 heading up to 3.00 - quickly.

BTW -SYMW is bouncing up to .0030 and back to .0009 = fun :)

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#17) On September 15, 2009 at 4:53 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

Hi tagit, long time....

SYMW:  It's fun to say you own a million shares of something....even if it isn't going anywhere.  :)

EPEX:  Had a good mutual fund following.  Comes down to their credit agreement. Few banks want to "own" a business just to shut it down.  They are on their FOURTH Extension that is good until Sept 30th.  Looks like they sold off everything they could.  Their revenue per quarter is 1/10th what it was a year ago.  Winter and the recent increase in natural gas prices may have bought them some more time. I don't know how good their hedges are. They pretty much broke even on hedging this past quarter.  The market loves these kind of plays. They had a going concern in their quarterly. They are still losing money. They put 4 mediocre wells on line. But they are cash flow positive, but mostly deferring debt.

No bank in it's right mind would want to take them over. I don't see them as being a buyout candidate in this market, hard to say, but not at a premium. Comes down to watching them and whether they will get another pass from their bank. IF so, they will hold in there where they are. If they can get an increase in their credit limit or complete releif then they would be $3 plus. A definite texas oil well gamble.  Probably a good call, but definitely risky. It's an all lost or a 5 bagger.

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#18) On September 16, 2009 at 12:44 AM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

tagit, some of the other land based natural gas companies have had decent spikes in their share price that appear to be as bad off as EPEX.  Unfortuantely, on further review, EPEX may get an extension again on their credit, but unless they get a buyout from another company they will fold in the next 12 months (or less). The bank is looking for half the debt back and cash flow is at a minimum. They overhauled 4 wells for about a 10% increase in natural gas, but they have essentially no new wells in progress and no funds to fund them. My other concern is that they are also in arears paying mandatory dividends on preferred shares. This is also accumulating and would be ahead of the common shares if there was a liquidation.  Again, might pop, might get a buyout offer, but I'd probably prefer a play that might pop and stay up, or if it popped and dropped it wouldn't drop much lower than my buy price.  Epex is all or nothing!  Good luck.

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#19) On September 16, 2009 at 12:54 AM, Tastylunch (29.40) wrote:

I personally think CEP has a much better risk/reward profile than EPEX if you are looking for a similiar play.

Net tangible assets on CEP are nearly 13 bucks and it's trading at about 4

Full disclosure: I own shares in CEP

 

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#20) On September 16, 2009 at 1:11 AM, automaticaev (< 20) wrote:

buy foriegn stocks.

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#21) On September 16, 2009 at 11:24 AM, Pennyperson (< 20) wrote:

I see your point, was looking to short a pop, but, to risky- needed another head. Thks

Then what about PDS or DBLE both looking better on a buy/hold for a yr or better.

Guess I could always short DRYS :)

 

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#22) On September 16, 2009 at 4:40 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

DBLE is siimilar to CEP in size and products. They just bought out someone smaller for shares.  The trick to these guys is how much are they reinvesting back into produciton. Exex appears to be dying on the vine with no real investment and heavy debt.  BDLE is clearly in much better fiscal shape, but they haven't grown their revenue either the last year. I like their location. They seem to be trying to hedge. They are also expanding. Might be a decent play. Their first quarterly loss may be a good entry point.  Read their 10Q's and reports and see if they are balancing their expansion.

PDS is a different critter than the others.  They would make a good long if oil prices stay above $70.  I was surprised today that inventories are down.  Being passed in Canada, there books take a little more time to absorb.  Revenue is declining the last two years, but that's to be as expected.  Their dividend is 1/4th what it was a year ago, but I'm okay with a comany cutting the dividend when needed. The fact they had one and that it gave them a recession cushion was a good thing.  They might make a better long.  I don' t have time to read up on them since pulling the data on foreign companies is a little bit more time consuming.  Good luck.

 PS DRYS has singed a blood pack with King Neptune, else ol' Davy would have already gotten them.  Hard to bet against them, even though it should be a no brainer!  :)

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#23) On September 16, 2009 at 8:46 PM, Pennyperson (< 20) wrote:

Cool, a final thought- I bought PDS today-DBLE I own & REXX and NOG and did KOG - I sold KOG today.

I found my short - not sure if I'll cash in or not yet, but, it looks to go up even more if Mr. Market will hang in there. "IVAN" -if the after hours trading will hang in there- I'll more than have doubled my funds which is a good thing--will see.

BTW - SYMW- hang tight-I bought 3 mil shares-when it popped, I sold 2, now I have 1 mil for free -if you own it-watch it - by the end of year it will pop agian and even more than .0030.The reverse split is coming.

Thanks

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#24) On September 17, 2009 at 12:50 PM, Tagit (64.98) wrote:

Tsif

Look at all the crazy insider buying on LGDI.OB

.76 cents - Are we missing the boat? Is this worth a pop and drop?

 

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#25) On September 17, 2009 at 6:54 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

Interesting, 64 Million shares between the two 10% beneficial owners.  Something smells. The balance sheet has been going up the last two quarters, but they have no revenue and negative cash flow.  The founder seems serious! He bought a Lear jet in 2008!  They seem to have enough money at their current "burn" rate to maybe pull off an operation without diluting too much?  They plan no mining activity before next year, but just agreed to a transportation contract with a major transporter.  Good government contacts in AU.  Seems to have AU backing, due no doubt to the promise of 1,000 jobs.  One the two 10% owerners is an Indian company looking for the phosphates. (fertilizer material).  226 Million shares outstanding....so the beneficials are putting a serious dent into it.   Ahhh. Found it!  17 Million of the Indian group is opitons expriing in 2010 at $3.50.  Could be a drive to run it that high??  Working on better rail and power.

Very interesting.  50 slides in their presentation, mostly repetive.

Tasty and GMX both down thumbed it in August of 2008. It has been a stock issuing maniac.  Buying planes, vehicles, and other frills.  Dining with the Aussie PM.

I don't think it if pops that it will drop. It's a year later from Tasty and GMX hitting on it.  I don't think it's a scam. If the two beneficials are serious then they will soon be sucking the shares from any that are lose.  Looks like an interesting  play. The Indian affiliate buying things up has 5 MAJOR worldwide operations. It's a coop in India. I need to research some of the key players.   I'm tempted on this one. Do your own DD!

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#26) On September 17, 2009 at 7:15 PM, Pennyperson (< 20) wrote:

Not yet, but, I will tomorrow - looks to good to pass up. That’s government guaranteed revenue. Like UEPS has in South Africa

I think we will miss the boat if we don't buy. Do you agree-I need your feed back. Pretty excited over this find.

I agree with your research - you even found what I didn't know about the options expiring - where do you come up with this info? :)  Seriously!! you da man

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#27) On September 17, 2009 at 8:24 PM, Pennyperson (< 20) wrote:

Found the options deal - smart move by the Indians

What do you think-like Cash Cab-are you in?

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#28) On September 17, 2009 at 9:04 PM, MoneyWorksforMe (< 20) wrote:

"Except that Alstry does not generate facts, he only accumulates facts from the very sources he disparages as distorted."

Thank you motleyanimal. He proclaims the media "lies through their teeth" and yet the basis of all his arguments stem from statistics and rhetoric provided by--who else? THE MEDIA. His blogs are subject for thought-nothing more. The problem is that he completely misconstrues the effect of market news on the stock market itself. Understanding WHAT moves the market and WHY is key to being a successful investor. Alstry has no sense of this whatsoever.

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#29) On September 17, 2009 at 9:26 PM, Seano67 (25.10) wrote:

PDS is a different critter than the others.  They would make a good long if oil prices stay above $70.  I was surprised today that inventories are down.  Being passed in Canada, there books take a little more time to absorb.  Revenue is declining the last two years, but that's to be as expected.  Their dividend is 1/4th what it was a year ago, but I'm okay with a comany cutting the dividend when needed. The fact they had one and that it gave them a recession cushion was a good thing.  They might make a better long.  I don' t have time to read up on them since pulling the data on foreign companies is a little bit more time consuming.  Good luck.

 

Hi Tasty. Just wanted to tell you that PDS did not only cut their dividend, they eliminated it altogether. They haven't paid a divvy since Jan. 09. If nothing else, that eliminates the concern over the distribution-related tax consequences of owning shares in a Canadian royalty trust. :)

I am long, looooong PDS.

 

 

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#30) On September 17, 2009 at 9:48 PM, Tastylunch (29.40) wrote:

I don't see the sudden attraction to LGDI.ob, I guess because some Indian firm has been continually buying using their options (that expire in 2010) for three months?

 It's not a short anymore but they still have no operations and their cash came in primarily through very dilutive PIPES and equity issues if memory serves.

They also only lease their properties and despite having said leases have yet to produce anything (and some of the elases don't have long before they have to be renewed)

Plus if I'm reading this most some of the potential deposits they are claiming they haven't even been granted leases for yet! (lady jane, Lady Annie and Thorntonia which comprise 3/4 of what they supposedly could get. They will probbaly be ganted the leases but that seems dishonest to me to claim it as part of your proven reserves of Phosphate. (page 4-8 of the 10k)

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1132143/000115752309006331/a6041216.htm

They also churn press releases like crazy, legit companies usually don't do that.

I don't care that the Soros family has shares. Big money often gets shares in the OTC stocks at way below market price, their risk is very limited. If I could get shares in LGDI.ob at 1/2 the going price and one year lockup I might buy too. In this case Soros bought at 2.00 when it was 4 something it looks like. The family is obviously taking a bath on right now, but 45 million bucks is chump change to them, you have to keep in mind as well.

Anyone buying now is buying on pure speculation. I'd rather buy a company with actual assets and operations .

I'm not saying you can't go long and make money here but I don't see why you couldn't do better in something else with greater safety.

Doesn't look horrible just very speculative.

We should know fairly soon, supposedly they will start production in Q4 2009.

well good luck

 

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#31) On September 17, 2009 at 9:50 PM, Tastylunch (29.40) wrote:

Seano67

that wasn't me that was TSIF. I don't know anything about PDS.

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#32) On September 17, 2009 at 10:20 PM, Seano67 (25.10) wrote:

Oops, sorry bout that Tastylunch.

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#33) On September 17, 2009 at 10:26 PM, topsecret09 (44.31) wrote:

#25) On September 17, 2009 at 6:54 PM, TSIF (99.31) wrote:     I'm tempted on this one. Do your own DD!     I don't think Its a scam........   http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=260402&t=01009917921919779399

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#34) On September 17, 2009 at 10:45 PM, Tastylunch (29.40) wrote:

  Seano67

no worries

topsecret09

No one said it's a scam (at least not here or by me), just not investment grade imho.

I just think it's very very speculative. That can work out both ways.

You obviously have a different opinion which is completely fine, that's why there are markets.

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#35) On September 17, 2009 at 11:01 PM, awallejr (77.67) wrote:

Tastylunch

Actually I would link to think that LGDI has made such a nice move (.60-.86) because of my few blogs suggesting it ;p  I suspect, however, that it is more in anticipation of commencement of production. 

I am not concerned about them getting future lease grants, simply because there is zero competition for them.  Setting up these types of mines takes years.  The company is already in place.

What I like about the company is it is in what I consider one of the "right" long term businesses.  I do realize that company predictions of producing 500,000 tons of phosphate rock to peak 5 million tons is a forward looking prediction, but if they achieve that you are looking at considerable price appreciation for your shares.  This is what I like. Finding companies that have considerable appreciation potential and investing in them.

Would love to have bought POT, for example in its pre-production stage. 

Buy a few thousand shares, and put it in the vault. Should it double from where you bought then sell half. 

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#36) On September 17, 2009 at 11:04 PM, Tagit (64.98) wrote:

Gees..ask a question & everyone is involved--bottome line--GMO hasn't started operations--but have the richest moly mine in America-is that a spec-play-Yes. BUT -not for .80 Cents.

Tsif-what do you think-scam or deal?

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#37) On September 17, 2009 at 11:25 PM, topsecret09 (44.31) wrote:

#36) On September 17, 2009 at 11:04 PM, Tagit (75.91) wrote:Gees..ask a question & everyone is involved. No,you asked a question about a stock that I have been following for A COUPLE WEEKS,and I thought {SILLY ME) that maybe you would like another opinion...  I thought that this site was about helping each other make money,but If you prefer I will recuse myself from further conversations between you and your friends....  TS

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#38) On September 17, 2009 at 11:30 PM, Tastylunch (29.40) wrote:

first off sorry for the unintentional hijack of thread here TSIF

awallejr

well you never know It wouldn't surprise me if somone bought based off your blog :)

What I like about the company is it is in what I consider one of the "right" long term businesses.  I do realize that company predictions of producing 500,000 tons of phosphate rock to peak 5 million tons is a forward looking prediction...  

That's all well and good but it's not uncommon for companies with poor prospects to list their bueinesses as being in the "hot" sectors. In fact I would say most OTC companies are usually in "hot" sectors. I often wathc  new listings of OTC companies and I can tell you they usually have a very "flavor of the month" feel

I consider management's opinion of any OTC company to be unreliable, simply because there is no way to verify what they say. And they have every incentive to oversell their propects. Will they produce 500k tons like they say? Maybe, maybe not. But I don't think you should take mgt's word for it. There is no oversight to prevent them from lieing to you.

Which is why I think waiting until actual audited production occurs is the prudent manuever here for investors.Will you miss a big move? Possibly but you will have a much better idea what the company is potentially worth instead of guessing on scant data from a probably biased source (the company).

If you are just trading it thats's a different thing altogether.

I am not concerned about them getting future lease grants, simply because there is zero competition for them.  Setting up these types of mines takes years.  The company is already in place.

I agree that they are very likely get the leases, however the leases do not have to be honored if their are local resident or environmental concnerns by Australian law if I read the 10k correctly. That's why I think it's dishonest for managment to count their chickens before they hatch so to speak, especially when three of the four attractive deposits are not not approved yet. They are claiming assets that they don't actually have yet and they only bother to tell you that in the fine print.

Just an ethical quibble.

POT to my knowledge was never an OTC stock. And for good reason, because they had good prospects.You have to wonder why LGDI didnt go straight to the exchanges if their prospects are so good.

If you want to invest that's your call and your are not necessarily wrong. In fact you might be very right. I just evaluate the risk/reward differently than you do, that's all.

well good luck to you, hope it works out for you.

 

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#39) On September 17, 2009 at 11:41 PM, awallejr (77.67) wrote:

"Which is why I think waiting until actual audited production occurs is the prudent manuever here for investors."

That is absolutely correct.  IF you want to be prudent.  I do believe that people should always devote a part of their investment to speculation.  I view this as speculative, but worth the risk over the years; plays into the food industry (fertilizer is good), and even  inflation concerns (commodities are good). Never a guarantee, of course.

And thanks for the well wishes.  Btw I am looking into your CEP call.  Has speculative long term potential.  I will have to dig deeper tho.

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#40) On September 17, 2009 at 11:46 PM, Tastylunch (29.40) wrote:

Tagit

Just think how poor Alstry feels. No one has mentioned 9.09, alstrynomics or MOAP in awhile now. :)

I know you didn't ask me but I think GMO has some issues with funding for their MT Hope project.  I'm not interested until I know how they plan to pay for it all.

thsi sort of stuff from their 10Q worries me

" The cash needs for the development of the Mt. Hope Project require that we or Eureka Moly obtain project financing or other significant financing in addition to the capital contributions anticipated to be received from POS-Minerals.  The aggregate amount of additional financing required for the development of the Mt. Hope Project, minus the amounts anticipated to be received from POS-Minerals on the ROD Contribution Date is anticipated to range between $715 million and $850 million,....

 

Given the continued uncertainty in the project finance market, low molybdenum prices at the time, and a longer than expected timeframe to receive the federal permits to begin construction at the Mt. Hope project, on March 26...

 

Engineering efforts, approximately 60% complete, were suspended in the second quarter of 2009, pending the completion of financing

 

While we do not expect to achieve full project financing until credit markets and the outlook for molybdenum prices improve, we are continuing to evaluate a number of potential sources for capital, including the possibility of a sale of another minority interest in the Mt. Hope Project, additional support from current strategic partners, off-take related debt, and debt from private investment groups, as well as the capital markets. "

 

sounds pretty iffy to me. They seem to be shutting down until/if they gte more funding.

 

It's an all or nothing kinda gamble. Not really my kind of play.

 

I do think Molybendum is very interesting though. Report this comment
#41) On September 18, 2009 at 12:10 AM, Tagit (64.98) wrote:

:) I'm lost--Who's the last blog intended for? I found some tremdous inside buying-done very little research and was asking TSIF his opinion.

SYMW is an OTC-don't think our gov would give them $$$$-grant -if they were unreliable-now days anyway.

BTW-09 your thoughts are welcomed-my apologies

Lets do this--anyone that would invest in LGDI - say I or nay LOL, make it simple

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#42) On September 18, 2009 at 2:12 AM, awallejr (77.67) wrote:

Did so with real money, so aye ;p  Long term spec hold, so  take it with that in mind.

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#43) On September 18, 2009 at 9:00 AM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

Tagit, this is an open forum, and I appreciated all the feedback. Tasty had researched this one last year.  His opinion coincides with mine that it could be a good investment if you are "LONG", but that it is speculative.

Awallejr, really puts the point home in his comments.  Except for a few side trails, there is some good info here for someone doing thier own DD.

My opinion is that it may get popped up by insider accumulation in the short run.   There are 3 major 10% holders. Two are really the same company.  Why they are mirroring the share purchases with their  Dubai account I have no idea. The phosphates are already lined up to run one of their plants in India.

The third holder cashed out two of his three hedge funds and is only running one of them. (international). He has a large enough block that if he sells into this buying then that could take the steam out of it quick.  So far he has only sold a minimal number of shares and paid about 6 times more than they are listed for today, so he would have to take a loss to sell, but might want one on his books by the end of the year. Who knows with the hedgies.

As a long investment. I think it's a good one. With $100 Million they shouldn't have to dilute again soon.  The owners however are living VERY high on the hog at the expense of the shareholders.  Their history is selling shares like it's candy. They could issue more with the thought of buying more land.  I think the Indian Consortium now has a large enough block that they might consider exerting some control. I'm not sure how that would play out.

Again, you had several great comments and opinions above. If you do a print and select the last four pages or so of this blog then you can highlight the appropriate comments.

IF you are looking for a straight buy or sell opinion, it depends on your risk level. This one is risky. It could settle back down again for 6-12 months. You might do better (as Tasty commented) with your money elsewhere. If you are willing to chance the insiders buying for a short pop and get out, then that isn't a bad play. IF you don't mind going long and having it fluctuate all over the place, and possibly end up in trouble with environmental, lease, power, transporation issues that dilute it futher then it looks like a decent long ride, but you may want to wait a little longer toward production.

My own risk level, and my opinion agreeing with awallejr, is that a little fun in your portfolio, as long as your wife doesn't read the statements, and as long as you have sensible balance and don't need the money anytime soon is okay.   As such, I'm going to see if I can catch it on a dip and go for a ride.   Again NOT a sensible choice.  Based on my own risk, and my own portfolio and not as a day trade!   Do your own DD.  Good LUCK!

As to who found it first and who blogged what. This collection of fools is observant and fast. I don't read the insider trading every day, but it's a decent tool for investment ideas.  I have enough investment ideas right now.  Since the market stabilized, I'm more into holding my winners longer.  There are some good undervalued plays out there that are safe even if we get another dip.

Witching day today. Watch for a lot of volume and swings. The option traders will be trying to get their prices.

Good luck.

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#44) On September 18, 2009 at 12:01 PM, Tagit (64.98) wrote:

TISIF I did extend an apology and realize it’s an open forum. Was a tad lost with what ticker are fellow fools were referring too and who was responding to what and who—it was getting late. I had ACL Knee surgery at 5.30 yesterday morning – it wasn’t exactly a fun day – just can’t get stay away from Mr. Market – no matter if I’m down. :) I’m a risk taker with penny stocks and might short a few pops now and then, but, all in all my risk tolerance is at a medium or a tad higher. There is far more stocks in the investment universe to better concentrate on—will leave it that. For all the inputs – they were greatly appreciated. From GMO, PDS, CEP, EPEX, DBLE, IVAN, SYMW etc. Oh!! - Can’t forget LGDI.OB that popped .10 today which seems a better play to ride at least to $2. Have fun & enjoy

 

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#45) On September 18, 2009 at 1:10 PM, Tastylunch (29.40) wrote:

Speaking of risky OTCs I'm liking what I'm seeing out of LPIH.OB (Longwei Petroleum) so far

the few OTCS I'll invest in are usually Chinese companies since I've seen a couple legit ones list that way (and it makes plausible sense given Sarbanes Oxley's restriction on foreign companies, American companies have no such excuse ).

They issue 10Qs mostly on time, don't seem to dilute their stock and are pretty cheap.

No debt, P/bb of 1.00  P/e of about 5.00, sales are growing 40% yoy.

The trend is pretty positive on it as well.

been in business since 1995.

I Haven't done full DD on it yet

and there are concerns (like a lack of an auditor and a new American CEO who is only 32). whihc is why i'm taking my time with this one.

They are a wholesaler of Oil and kerosene basically.

If you are messing with the likes of LGDI.oB. I would think these guys are a whole lot less risky with just as much reward potential driven by actual probable production  as opposed to speculation what may be.

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#46) On September 18, 2009 at 1:15 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

Great Tagit,  careful playing the markets while you're on the meds!  But then again, you might do better!!!  :)

Hope your on the mend.

Just a warning. I think the small play natural gas companies are being set up for a fall. They may get some rides, but overall they got in their depressed state from record low NG. Some shut down their pipes at the bottom and can make just enough money at this price to open them back up and get some cash flow. Mr. Market is fooling themselves (as usual), if they think the market won't get reglutted, probably in weeks if not days.  The ones losing money will keep losing money.  It sounds like you are playing technicals, which seems to be working on these plays since they were beaten down so hard.  Overall, I prefer to look for at least some semblance of fundamentals before piling on.  Too many pops, by the time you see them, have already reached their end.   As you said there are lots of plays out there.  All in this price range are risky and speculative, but some are a little less speculative than others!!!  Good luck!!

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#47) On September 18, 2009 at 1:24 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

You must have been typing the same time as me Tasty! :)

I like LPIH.OB as well, but had a lower limit in than you had on CAPS and it skipped down below me. Seems to holding it's own at this level and reconsolidating.

Had it flagged for more DD this weekend if I get time. Busy weekend coming up.  I usually que up 3-4 ideas and see which ones survive the wringer over the weekend.  The passes on these blogs was only surface level, but I went pretty deep into LGDI.OB, but who knows. Foreign, press release driven, Lear Jet type CEO, but an interesting play.  Looks like it was "FOUND"

Thanks!

 

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#48) On September 18, 2009 at 1:29 PM, Tastylunch (29.40) wrote:

Oh wow the new CEO of LPHI.ob sound slike a real Noob

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_L/threadview?m=te&bn=87782&tid=990&mid=-1&tof=13&rt=2&frt=2&off=1#-1

man when yahoo message baords and your own stock promoters think you are idiot that's not a good sign :)

http://www.redchip.com/visibility/investor.asp?symbol=LPIH

Nice so they hired one of the sketchier stock promoters out there.

I guess I'll shelve this one again.

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#49) On September 18, 2009 at 1:35 PM, Tastylunch (29.40) wrote:

ouch it was so bad they issued a press release to correct their new CFO

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Longwei-Petroleum-Reports-prnews-673756485.html?x=0&.v=33

 LOL Man I should apply for these jobs, I could easily show up sober and clean shaven to a conference and get paid 10k a month.

That's something their CFO is aparrently unable to do.

 

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#50) On September 18, 2009 at 1:37 PM, Tastylunch (29.40) wrote:

TSIF

I don't use limits much. It' an old trader practice of mine, I don't like other people seeing what I intend to do especially on illiquid stocks. :)

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#51) On September 18, 2009 at 2:48 PM, Pennyperson (< 20) wrote:

I agree with your thoughts on the NG plays-it was time to take profits today. Still think DBLE is in the "correct" space and place and PDS is just plain long. Oil will go back above 80, it's just a matter of tme.

BTW

Full disclosure at the opening; I now own LGDI.OB. But, not 1 mil shares as with SYMW.PK :) Yahoo to both- I’ve done the DD on Sympowerco Corp – That could be the biggest find of them all. Its worth to loose it to play the lottery – government grant speaks for itself - which makes them believers. www.sympowercocorp.com

 

Hope the pain meds work ;)

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#52) On September 18, 2009 at 2:51 PM, Pennyperson (< 20) wrote:

Maybe time to buy more at .0008 LOL

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#53) On September 18, 2009 at 3:10 PM, Tastylunch (29.40) wrote:

Pennyperson

not 1 mil shares as with SYMW.PK :)

they don't seem to be an SEC reporting entity and their annual report looks like it was made in MS Word

thye have no property, equipment or inventory and over 1.7 million in debtto themselves

and a going concern warning

their assets seem to be completely in something called "DMFC" which they never bother to explain what that is. I assume that means Direct methanol Fuel cell patents. Who knows what those are actually worth.

They sure sell a lot of stock and issue a lot of press release though. They've only got like a billion and half more shares left to issue.

Are you really sure they have a  US govt' grant (meaning you asked someone other than the company itself?)

going off their pathetic website I'd be extremely surprised if they actually do.

Man I gotta tell you I think there's a high probability that this company is apump and dump.

Well hope it works out for you.

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#54) On September 18, 2009 at 4:15 PM, Tagit (64.98) wrote:

The Grant didn’t come from the US, but through Canadians Carleton University/ Canadian Government and was equivalent to 1 mil US dollars. Did I see them write them the check=NO

NO ONE INVEST in this company due to my opinion

A mil shares is not much funding when it was .0006 = 600.00 = Loooong shot. I’d spend that on a weekend get away.

When and IF it ever comes together – they’ll probably do a reverse split- again my opinion.

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#55) On September 18, 2009 at 4:41 PM, awallejr (77.67) wrote:

Have to say this is a really good thread especially after it went off topic lol.

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#56) On September 18, 2009 at 4:51 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

I was starting a monthly just to converse blog a few months ago, but then I went to Papua New Guninea and lost momentum.

I'd start a new one to bounce stock ideas off of, it seems we like the fantasy of "penny stocks".  I'm not sure what to call it. I'll think about it this weekend.  CAPS is going to start a microcap forum.  That should be interesting.

I just wouldn't want to be party to something that people started investing in without their own DD.  It seems the other bloggers who have a specialty eventually get people following along. I suppose it's those peoples money, but again I would feel bad anyway. 

Have a great weekend!  Don't BOOK your gains, (or drink them up) while they're still on paper. Monday is another day... :)

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#57) On September 19, 2009 at 7:06 PM, Tagit (64.98) wrote:

Yes, it’s always better to do your own research before buying into any stock. But, this is a community forum – investors helping investors – invest. Some Cap members do take the time like many on this thread to speak openly and honestly about there thoughts on a given stock. Some based on facts, speculation, technical etc. Even some on a hope :)

We’re all bouncing ideas off each other, if in agreement-cool, if not, that’s fine as well – just gives you more reason to dig a little deeper – before buying or not buying a stock.  

I convinced my own father ‘this year’ to transfer funds from his EX account and do his own trading – based on his knowledge, research and YES help from Caps. At the close of the bell on Friday; he now has over 100% return on his initial investment. His broker has managed a 29% return from YTD –Dad started in late February. His first stock pick came from the help of “Caps”, he did his own research and pulled the trigger on TC in late march. 

Opinions are opinions and risks are taken even with professional brokers. I don’t think you’re a party too anything but your own professionalism when it comes to participating in Caps.

Penny stocks are fascinating – with better odds than Vegas :)

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