I agreed with Alstry....now what do I do???
Alstry gets some good advice mixed in with the hundreds of blogs he writes. Unfortunately, it's rare that I find the wheat among the chaff. Generally I tune it out.
I do like Alstry's most recent blog....A Clarification of Alstrynomics and gave him rec. Of course this sent me into mixed emotions. Agreeing with Alstry??
I'm fairly certain that the blog contents were a rebuttal to MotleyAnimal or my own recent blog, referring to Permabears. Of course there is the song that "you think this song is about you, don't you"..... so maybe it's concidence. Either Way, in this gem of a blog, (my opinion) that Alstry wrote, it is still lacking as it stops well short of being a productive investing discussion. There are other permabears here on Caps that have even more doom and gloom than Alstry. Abitare has been selling guns for quite awhile now. "Again, go by you local gun store and ask about business or call and try and get into a gun class. Gun nuts can help me here. There is no deflation in guns or ammo, again go and see for yourself." "The Keyensian cure to recession / depression has been war in the past. War = doom and gloom."
Alstry's talks of riots and deep depressions as well mixed in with fear of being turned into zombies. His most recent blog does lead to some discussion and reflection. The question is that even if we believe the economic shift will occur and we will go back to a "deleveraged savings society" what do we do about it? How do we prepare? The interpretation of the "exaggeration" as Alstry himself called it is that the sky is falling, (it's clearer in other permabear's blogs without exaggeration). My concern, and the concern of others is that we can adapt without putting our head in the sand. We can't (shouldn't stop living). We need to adapt as investors. The recession is making many of us traders. If you're on the sidelines then yes your money is "safe", but inflation, the deficit, the falling dollar, each in its own cylce will eat your savings alive. Yes, we may be seeing some spotty deflation, but don't expect that to last. It can't. As productivity increased we abandoned most of our farmlands, we consume oil faster than some day we will be able to find it, and we have whole new generations that will not go from hitting up the bank of "Mom and Dad" to saving (a foreign concept) overnight.
So what do I do if I agree with Alstry, the "deleveraged savings society" blogger? How do I prepare?
As an investor/trader. I get better. I look for what the market is tossing aside. I don't take the joy ride on the beaten down stocks with negative balance sheets, high debt, and negative cash flow. IT's all the more important to be investing properly now than ever before. The rising market will lift most ships for a short time, but the ships that are full of holes will sink again. Conversely, tossing my capital into a hole in the ground (or the proverbial mattress), just isn't going to cut it in the the long run.
So what do I do if I agree with Alstry "the exaggerator"? How do I prepare?
Add in some real permabears to this section. At any rate, as an investor, it's hard to invest if you think the world is about to end. My ol' standy Smith and Wesson (SWHC) just can't seem to hold an upward incline. Let's get some more doom and gloom going for my gun, alchohol and ammo stocks. Does anyone know of a company selling C-rations? I can stimulate the economy by buying bullet proof vests for the riots to come, but really why would I get out of my cozy bomb shelter near a riot? I suppose I could invest in Tamaflu, masks, and other swine flu items. No Alstry isn't predicting the swine flu will destroy the world, but as an investor, I may as well make a buck in something safe while waiting for the worse to happen.
So what do I do if I agree with Alstry? We'll either I need to find the middle ground and get to work, or I need to stimulate the economy and see a Psych. PREPARE is advice that is always good! Prepare by becoming a better investor or if you believe the world will end soon, then prepare for the end. I'm not quite sure how you do that and it doesn't sound like much fun, but see if you can't find some way to stimulate the economy while you're at it.
I agreed with Alstry? Yes, Alstry could reduce his blog count by 90%, include some preparedness tips, and pen some blogs like the 10% he has been penning lately with some meat to them, and I'd be giving him even more rec's. Of course I will continue finding the HypnoToad's blogs as well and rec'ing them. Especially if I Rec Alstry's. We have to have some balance here somewhere!