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goldminingXpert (29.50)

I am CAPS 1-day hottest player. Sigh.

Recs

59

February 22, 2011 – Comments (36)

What a humbling fall from grace, to go from #1 and 10,000+ point to a sub-0 score and sub-50 rating. Due to the nonsense in Libya, I've finally returned to being an all-star today with my rating rising an absurd 45 points. Hopefully with a little sanity in the financial markets, I'll be back to 99+ rated soon. I will never again laugh at the "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" quote as this bull market has been a most embarrasing teacher to me. I apologize to all my fellow fools here who I belittled when the S&P 500 was 100s of points lower than it is presently for their bullish stance. I was wrong.

Congrats to TMFBabo who is far more worthy of being top Fool than I ever was. You've done great man, keep up the good work!

36 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On February 22, 2011 at 8:06 PM, kdakota630 (29.61) wrote:

+1 rec.  Despite the turn your score took, you're still one of my favourites to follow.

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#2) On February 22, 2011 at 8:06 PM, Bays (29.94) wrote:

Just another lesson learned.... You'll be a better investor from the whole experience. 

+1

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#3) On February 22, 2011 at 8:36 PM, Valyooo (99.39) wrote:

Holy sh!+ that is a ridiculous jump in score.

just an observation from a noob, but being a "permabear" seems to get you a very high score for brief periods of time and then crushes you (see: alstry)

So, maybe take some of those short calls off the table.  The markets have not acted "irrationally" for two years...it was irrational for you to be downthumbing companies in March 2009.  You would have only been right if the world exploded, in which case nobody would evern know you were #1, because we would all be dead.

Sorry if this came off as rude, I know you are good at analysis, just an observation I have made.

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#4) On February 22, 2011 at 8:48 PM, rexlove (99.56) wrote:

After the market finishes it's pullback in a week or two - take advantage and close out all your shorts and start anew. 

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#5) On February 22, 2011 at 9:28 PM, APJ4RealHoldings (36.81) wrote:

i caused the crash. i began liquidating my heavily short portfolio. after my positions close, then those tickers move the direction i originally intended.

im sure this is common as programs/computing rigs can easily guage indivudual investor activity/actions & trade against them

my liquidation had to do with my desire to move my business elsewhere

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#6) On February 22, 2011 at 10:12 PM, topsecret10 (< 20) wrote:

  You've been a top fool for a long time.....   :)  TS

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#7) On February 22, 2011 at 10:29 PM, TMFBabo (100.00) wrote:

Thanks for the shout out! It's definitely been a bad market to have a lot of shorts in CAPS - I see a lot of junk shrugging off bad news and continue to go up, so I don't know what to make of it all.

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#8) On February 22, 2011 at 11:29 PM, ChrisGraley (29.66) wrote:

GMX, I still follow you too and you might just wind up being a 30 day hottest player in very short time.

Junk is still junk.

Just remember that pet rocks were popular for a while until people realized that they were buying rocks. 

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#9) On February 22, 2011 at 11:40 PM, Valyooo (99.39) wrote:

Chris,

Pet rocks are amazing, and you know it.

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#10) On February 22, 2011 at 11:40 PM, Option1307 (30.03) wrote:

Just remember that pet rocks were popular for a while until people realized that they were buying rocks.

Ha ha ha classic. 

You have always been a great contributor to the Fool, +1!

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#11) On February 23, 2011 at 12:19 AM, WallstreetKnight (45.32) wrote:

Especially since we live in the age of chia pets.

And that's not a metaphor for anything. 

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#12) On February 23, 2011 at 2:23 AM, JakilaTheHun (99.93) wrote:

You should end your red thumb on GGP.  You're basically leveraged on it at this point, so every little movement upward destroys you by a disproporationately large amount.

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#13) On February 23, 2011 at 2:34 AM, awallejr (79.49) wrote:

I apologize to all my fellow fools here who I belittled when the S&P 500 was 100s of points lower than it is presently for their bullish stance. I was wrong.

Apology accepted. 

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#14) On February 23, 2011 at 2:52 AM, ikkyu2 (99.24) wrote:

While I admire your willingness to be wrong and learn from it, I want to say that I have learned 10 times as much from reading your "wrong" blogs as I have from, say, TMFBabo.  Please don't quit; you have a lot to contribute and I always appreciate your blog entries.

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#15) On February 23, 2011 at 9:49 AM, TDRH (99.49) wrote:

It can be humbling.

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#16) On February 23, 2011 at 9:51 AM, familyfund2 (21.61) wrote:

Though your accuracy is impressive, i also wonder if you should consider closing some of your old underperforms.

congrats on your WNR.

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#17) On February 23, 2011 at 12:54 PM, jesusfreakinco (28.91) wrote:

GMX,

I feel your pain....   Keep posting.  You've been pretty darn accurate, but have been attacked by the EE. Better days are ahead...

JFC

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#18) On February 23, 2011 at 1:27 PM, goldminingXpert (29.50) wrote:

Awallejr: Thank you.

Jakila: I'm going to keep riding the GGP mistake awhile a longer. As long as the company remains unprofitable, the book value stays under $2, and the commercial real estate market remains poor, I just can't close it, though I probably should.

Various: Maybe I should close some underperforms. I still think the S&P revisits 1100 or lower at some point, if I'm right, I'm going to reboot the portfolio to a significant degree. I'm not closing the red thumbs on ultra-etfs, which caused much of the carnage in my score, as these will eventually -- sigh, it could be awhile -- become right due to slippage if for no other reason.

Various: I never understood the pet rock thing.

Various: Thanks for the kind comments.

Jesusfreakinco: What's the "EE"? 

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#19) On February 23, 2011 at 2:53 PM, Option1307 (30.03) wrote:

Btw, you've put together some pretty good blogs on SA, you should post them over here as well so other Fools can check them out. Keep up the good work.

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#20) On February 23, 2011 at 3:00 PM, JakilaTheHun (99.93) wrote:

Jakila: I'm going to keep riding the GGP mistake awhile a longer. As long as the company remains unprofitable, the book value stays under $2, and the commercial real estate market remains poor, I just can't close it, though I probably should.

GGP is not unprofitable by any stretch of the imagination.  You have to look deeper than "Net Income".  Net Income isn't even a realistic measure of profitability for REITs.  I would look at Funds From Operations (FFOs) or Cash Flows from Operations minus Working Capital changes as better gauges. 

I'd wager to guess that GGP is worth at least $15; maybe $20 - $25.  I'd call it a best of class operator with an overly aggressive finance team. There's really no reason the company should've gone BK to begin with; except that they decided that they needed virtually no cash or liquid assets to actually pay their bills back in the boom. Stupid move back then, but they are back on track now.

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#21) On February 23, 2011 at 3:19 PM, goldminingXpert (29.50) wrote:

Option: SA pays for its content and as such limits us to 250-word excerpts. I can post those 250-word excerpts here if you think that would be useful. I don't want to turn my CAPS blog into simply a vehicle to promote my SA articles though. What's your opinion?

Jakila: Fair enough. I tried to understand REIT accounting in 2007 when I owned one and it was a mind-bending experience from which I gained only partial knowledge.

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#22) On February 23, 2011 at 6:36 PM, floridabuilder2 (99.33) wrote:

Everything in life is cyclical from the seasons to politics to stock investing.  Once a new direction occurs it is hard to derail until it is derailed, but it never heads in one direction forever.

A lot of smart people on this board who correctly saw the big bad bear overstayed.  You cannot invest having a world view of economic collapse or chaos.  You cannot invest assuming that we will have massive inflation down the road... some day.  We have been printing money since the 80s and their were people afraid of the exploding debt then.  That would have been 20 plus years of sitting in gold or staying on the sidelines?

If you want to make money in life you ride the direction various asset classes or industry sectors are going whether short or long.  You can trade these trends for years.  If you go back to early 2009 this board was dominated by bears and I highly doubt there were many bulls blogging.  That is a pretty crowded boat.

5-7 years from now with demographics people are going to be talking about a housing shortage.  Mortgage rates are going to be much higher and inflation will push up home prices significantly from where they are today. 

I say this because a number of billionaires (e.g. Paulson and Soros) who had made big bets on commodities in the last 5 years or shorting the market during the bust have started putting money into distressed residential land.  When you have over a billion dollars you can't trade, but have to make 5-10 year bets.

I know people who have relationships with the arms of their residential land investing.  It is interesting to see how secretive private equity invests their money based on strategic high level macro views.

Good luck

 

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#23) On February 23, 2011 at 7:10 PM, dragonLZ (99.35) wrote:

GMX, I accept your apology.  :)

Good luck in the future.

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#24) On February 23, 2011 at 7:13 PM, dragonLZ (99.35) wrote:

Sorry, I see awallejr was faster with the same idea.

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#25) On February 23, 2011 at 8:46 PM, checklist34 (99.71) wrote:

remember, in real life if your posts are true, you'd have lost it all Dec 2009 (or earlier). 

gotta take that old parable seriously in the real world!  and think things through a lil more.

good luck!

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#26) On February 23, 2011 at 8:48 PM, goldminingXpert (29.50) wrote:

Luckily I used stop losses or yes, you'd be correct.

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#27) On February 23, 2011 at 8:49 PM, goldminingXpert (29.50) wrote:

Wide stop losses though ... 2009 was not a pleasant experience in any way.

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#28) On February 23, 2011 at 9:35 PM, awallejr (79.49) wrote:

floridabuilder2

5-7 years from now with demographics people are going to be talking about a housing shortage

Well this is where my crystal ball is cloudy.  I really don't know how that changing demographic will play out.  In the next 30 years you will see a large share of the population retiring and basically dying off.  Several things could happen.

1)  You see multi-generations living together in grandparent's house, in which case demand for new housing remains weak, unless higher immigration rates occur.

2) And the most interesting is where normally retirees sell their homes and move to smaller co-ops, condos or small mobile homes.  That could be a lot of supply hitting the market on the sale side, and higher demand on the smaller unit side.

 

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#29) On February 23, 2011 at 10:01 PM, floridabuilder2 (99.33) wrote:

awallejr,

After 5-7 years it doesn't matter what happens.  Most of the big money PE that I have met that have to put a lot of capital to work base their investment assumptions in a 5-7 year time frame as an exit strategy. 

This is based on distressed private equity investing. 

If you look at the price of oil it collapsed in 1999 to under $20 bbl.  This was a distress play in 1999 while everyone was buying the hot tech sector.  If you bought oil stocks then and held 7 years you are in 2006 and look at any oil company stock from 1999-2006 and compound the return rate.  You put stop losses then and just ride it through 2007.

The thought process these really wealthy individuals or managers have is that when you are buying in an absolute distressed environment you can make mistakes because time will cure it.

Although I am still a trader with stocks, once I retire from homebuilding in 5-7 years I am going to invest counter cyclical with that in mind.  Buying the worst industries but of course not being stupid about it (e.g. buying print media or other things that become technologically obsolete). 

 

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#30) On February 23, 2011 at 11:08 PM, Option1307 (30.03) wrote:

SA pays for its content and as such limits us to 250-word excerpts. I can post those 250-word excerpts here if you think that would be useful. 

I was not aware of the 250 word excerpt rule, is this actually official? I know Jakila and a few others usually post their SA articles on the Fool as well.

I don't want to turn my CAPS blog into simply a vehicle to promote my SA articles though. What's your opinion?

I guess that is entirely up to you, but I've always found your blogs/articles interesting and I'm sure other Fools would as well. Your recent piece on WNR is a great read and I have to give you credit for bring it to my attention way back in 2008.

 

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#31) On February 23, 2011 at 11:08 PM, awallejr (79.49) wrote:

FB

Well there is merit in that play.  Rotate into the out of favoreds, and sell them when they become favored. 

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#32) On February 23, 2011 at 11:22 PM, goldminingXpert (29.50) wrote:

Option ... if you want SA to pay you, you publish an excerpt. If you don't want SA to pay you, then you may republish your articles in their entirety elsewhere. I like being paid. I will be happy to publish excerpts here though if people would enjoy them.

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#33) On February 23, 2011 at 11:29 PM, Option1307 (30.03) wrote:

Ohhh, that makes sense.

Excerpt away!

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#34) On February 25, 2011 at 3:13 AM, mhy729 (29.83) wrote:

I second Option's motion!  It doesn't really matter to me personally, as I follow you on SA anyway, but it would be a shame to have your work there overlooked by Fool/CAPS regulars.  Certainly don't overdo it like a few here on CAPS do with their only activity being blog posts with links to their articles elsewhere (not that I think you'd actually do that).

On a related tangent...wow, some of the comment exchanges there on SA can get quite feisty.  I guess I've grown accustomed to the far more civil discourse that usually occurs here on CAPS, plus I'm not the most thick-skinned around, but you do a great job in responding to some of your more impolite commenters there.

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#35) On February 25, 2011 at 5:10 PM, MajorBob04 (99.56) wrote:

@APJ4RealHoldings:

Your comments reflect my feelings exactly.  I had a really good laugh . . . but i'm convinced that I caused the crash, not you. 

It's obvious that I caused the market crash because for the first time in my life I touched a Short ETF.  But unfortunately, I did the opposite of you, which is probably worse.  I "red thumbed" (underperform) several 3x Short ETFs just last week and saw scores of over 400 negative points per day, for each pick! In aggregate I wiped out 18 months of points in just a couple days.  I was rated over 70 last week, I'm now under 10 and still falling because it hasn't even been a week so I cannot cancel these "underperform" ratings yet!

@goldminingXpert: I've learned a lot from you recently, and the last week has taught me even more.  I was already following your comments and articles; I've learned a lot about gold & other commmodities from you.  Thanks for your insights!

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#36) On February 26, 2011 at 1:38 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

APJ4RealHoldings, you only lost hundreds of points per pick per day because many of the ETF's did reverse splits. It takes CAPs a few days to level things out, but all looks good now.  Yes, you can lose 5-15 points a day on EACH ultra ETF. I never play them for the market going down. Even if the market goes down over a long period the decay on these things will get you. The only way to win playing them that direction is a sharp one week market down timed nearly perfectly.

GMX, your blog and honesty if very refreshing.  It's good to have both bulls and bears in both markets, similar to Repulicans and Democrats so we can't get too disallusioned in our fantasy worlds in the times we are "temporarily" right in our calls. Overall, however, it's best not to be a PERMA either. There are good days in bad markets and bad days in good markets. If we sideline ourselves completely then we might be saved from the worse, but we have no hope of gaining in the best. There is a balance, but a lean to either side.

At least for those willing to look at both viewpoints the opposite one can help temper one being too blind when the tide turns.

PS. I agree with closing GGP. It is profitable, and even if not, the leverage isn't worth the battle. I'm learning that if I get 100 Points down on a downthumb, especially one I opened sub $5 that my chance of the market waking up and pushing it back down to the junk level it belongs is very low.  Enough speculators are active for the next few years to keep something from falling more than 50% short of bankruptcy and that seems more and more rare of late on any that doubled.  Leverage really hurts those calls.

Good luck, and regarding your SA articles, I think linking to them works, with a sentence or two on what they are about. The site doesn't require a membership to read them.  Good luck!

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