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I am Going LONG Tomorrow.

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October 09, 2008 – Comments (17)

I might be early and the risks are high. Bush is speaking. Paulson may declare marshal law via Bush, Gold may be confiscated and outlawed, the war maybe expanded, capitial may flee the economy, the market may sell off to 6-7k.

But Jim Cramer and CNBC are Bearish. This is uber bullish to me.

But I am looking for long postions, I am 50% short 50% cash. I am looking for long positions if there is a panic tomorrow.

I will likely be moving more long and into hard assets in the near term. Low P/E, low debts and slow down survivor. This is my first long position in a year (outside of Ultra shorts)

 

 

17 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On October 09, 2008 at 11:09 PM, abitare (31.77) wrote:

Van Eck International Investors Gold A (INIVX) is yielding a 9.6% dividend.

BP (BP: NYSE) is yielding 7%.

General Electric (GE: NYSE) is yielding 5.7%.

Spectra Energy (SE: NYSE) is yielding 4.4%.

Alcoa (AA: NYSE) is yielding 3.5%.

SSRI

TK

ECA

SU

VLO

AUY

STP

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#2) On October 09, 2008 at 11:12 PM, abitare (31.77) wrote:

APA, HAL, ORA, SPN, all these stocks are on watch.

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#3) On October 09, 2008 at 11:13 PM, abitare (31.77) wrote:

I should point out, I am WATCHING these stocks. I may go long one or two stocks depending on level of capitulations.

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#4) On October 09, 2008 at 11:26 PM, nuf2bdangrus (< 20) wrote:

The OIH is beginning to look very attractive.  I so regret closing my shorts, which i did ahead of the bailout as I didn't want to be burned by the feds.  I got burned anyway.  I started going more long today, and should have cut out at the beginning of the selloff, my inner truth told me the last hour was redemotion, but I was unwilling to take small losses.  Now they are larger on paper.  Bought UYG at 9.65 and HERO at 7.95    Looking at WFT, FTO, picked up a small call on TSo today.  WIll be buying calls on MSFT tomorrow.

 

Early gap down and then rally up, unless there is a coordinated effort effort by Treasury before market open.

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#5) On October 09, 2008 at 11:27 PM, awallejr (85.54) wrote:

Sheesh been saying dividend stocks for weeks.  If you like AA, don't you think FCX better?  Has gold in it too. 

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#6) On October 09, 2008 at 11:35 PM, dwot (42.57) wrote:

Good luck, still a tad early for me, but I am considering checking out a brokerage account.

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#7) On October 09, 2008 at 11:38 PM, abitare (31.77) wrote:

nuf2bdangrus,

I think oil might have more down side with the recession and demand destruction, I like gold over oil. But I like these commodity producers with dividends and 52 week lows.

awallejr,

I like AA, nice dividend and huge discount. FCX is heavily premoted on CNBC, which makes me nervous, I will take a look.

 

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#8) On October 09, 2008 at 11:43 PM, StatsGeek (29.17) wrote:

With option premiums out of this world, I will be selling naked puts tomorrow on stocks I'd like to buy at a discount.  My favorite sectors: defense (as in military), gold, personal security, and oil-related where there is no or little debt.

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#9) On October 10, 2008 at 12:06 AM, jahbu (88.67) wrote:

no starbucks?

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#10) On October 10, 2008 at 12:22 AM, awallejr (85.54) wrote:

Here's another that is worth looking at. LINE.  That company has hedged out its position so they are making a ton with the DECLINE of nat gas. Also they just announced a $100 million dollar stock buyback.  While I am not a fan of stock buybacks, but rather see them pay dividends with the extra cash.  this company already pays a damn good dividend.  And with the stock so pummeled as it is the buyback actually makes sense.  I like PVR too. 

I own both now in real life and love the yields.  Longterm keepers for me.

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#11) On October 10, 2008 at 12:26 AM, ikkyu2 (99.26) wrote:

I think you're right.  The mood sounds like people are really ready to jump ship, even if the water is deep and there are sharks.  The bottom could be tomorrow.

Ron Paul wouldn't approve, though. 

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#12) On October 10, 2008 at 12:49 AM, abitare (31.77) wrote:

StatsGeek,

I like that strategy. Good call. I am not looking at Defense, Obama might have to make cuts. Bush and Chenney spent a ton on Defense, 8 years ago defense stocks were a terrible idea, it depends on if you think their will be a greater war.

jahbu,

My moto is built in bubble under in the bust. Which Starbucks is the king of Bubble building.... MCD is going to kill them.

I was Top Bear Pitch in Starbucks awhile back.

aresfinancial 11/18/07:

There is a new sheriff in coffee town, Ronald McDonald. The angry red headed, red nosed, and red shoed clown will beat the Starbucks Mermaid like a red headed step-child ...nothing but pain and suffering for the Mermaid, the SBUX baristas and SBUX shareholders.

dwot,

I might be early and punished. Here is the video for longs tomorrow:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0P6MqHccBSI

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#13) On October 10, 2008 at 12:59 AM, Harold71 (22.70) wrote:

Yes at some point there will be a rip your head off rally.

Maybe a call option on your hated dry bulk shippers?  GNK (which I bought at $16 in Dec. 2005 and sold for a big gain...hey it was a good play on the china bubble) will ride the market up and down with a huge beta.

UYM has also been executed, but the companies in it actually do stuff, unlike banks in UYG which loan out money they don't have.

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#14) On October 10, 2008 at 1:11 AM, abitare (31.77) wrote:

awallejr,

I will take a look.

ikkyu2

Dr Paul likes Gold and hates the FED. That is a choice we can all agree on! ;)

Harold71,

I hate drybulk, most of these companies are pump and dump pnzi schemes IMO. Take a look at my DRYS pitch.

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#15) On October 10, 2008 at 1:17 AM, StatsGeek (29.17) wrote:

Unfortunately, I think we're headed for a depression, which will lead to war.

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#16) On October 10, 2008 at 1:23 AM, awallejr (85.54) wrote:

War with who?

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#17) On October 10, 2008 at 1:44 AM, abitare (31.77) wrote:

StatsGeek,

You might be right. Take a look at my William Lind post earlier today.

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