I Am Tired Of Shiller, 'Reversion To The Mean' And Such Nonsense
TMF has published yet another article publicizing the charts of Mr. S, claiming that we are thus and so from the mean, and that we are bound to revert to what his charts says where we should be, on average. The current article involves the S&P 500 yield.
TMF has stated, correctly in my view, that past performance is no guarantee of future performance. I cite as my example FAIRX. Why should not this truism also apply to the equities in general? Is not the direction of same determined on the psychology of the herd investor, market makers, hedge funds, and such?
There are many folks who claim to have a crystal ball about the future direction of equities, gold, and such. Why should Mr S' charts have any more veracity than a 'Magic 8 Ball'?