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Varchild2008 (84.44)

I BOUGHT (FLIR) today....Dumping AMAT

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February 03, 2009 – Comments (6) | RELATED TICKERS: FLIR

I just DUMPED completely out of AMAT for a small loss on that stock.... I did so for lots of reasons... One of which is that I have lost my taste for "Solar Energy" optimism.  Another is that Applied Materials recently held out their hands to Barack Obama and begged Barack to get his PORKULUS Spending Bill past so that AMAT could get bailed out.

AMAT is falling off a cliff right now with no end in sight.  Nothing exciting has been manufactured at AMAT to compete with some other semiconductors that are actually doing well (VSEA) Varian Semiconductor for example.

In short.... AMAT is a sell.  It is bad. 

I also sold AMAT because a Watch List stock just hit my Alert level.  (FLIR) plunged 4% to 23.03 or so today.  That is insane for a company that is a hot commodity and market leader in their communications and surveillance equipment for Aerospace and Defense.

FLIR sells "SEA FLIR" technology for Vessels for the Navies across the world.  They sell top quality military equipment and the stock has nearly been cut in 1/2.

Sure.. The company just failed to land a massive Navy Contract totally nearly 200 million.  The stock price dive was warranted.... The Analyst Sell ratings were warranted....

But.. Analysts gave the company a "HOLD" rating after it plunged to around $27 a share.  So 4 points below the HOLD is definitely where one should start buying.... Their earnings report comes out in 2 days and there's no way this Investor is going to miss out.

Should the stock price take another hit by another 3 or so points then I am going to dip in real big on this one.

Currently own 50 shares.

6 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On February 03, 2009 at 4:13 PM, DarkToast (91.64) wrote:

FLIR is a good company, but I would be careful investing in companies that make the bulk of their earning from military sales at this point.

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#2) On February 03, 2009 at 4:20 PM, Seano67 (60.27) wrote:

I've learned from personal experience that it's really tough to make money in solar stocks. I'll never say never, but I can't really envision a circumstance where I'd ever buy another one again.

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#3) On February 03, 2009 at 4:52 PM, Varchild2008 (84.44) wrote:

I've thought of that DarkToast but I think you are way over pessimistic.  The Global War on Terror still goes on and Obama's Re-Election is on the line.  Obama won't just up and underfund and pull money out of the Military like Clinton when IRAN is still threatening neighbors with nuclear warfare.

There's just far too many reasons in this Global War on Terror for America to continue to buy what FLIR sells.... Surveilance equipment.... Thermal Imaging equipment... These are necessities even in Peace Time.

Plus... On the off chance OBAMA does gut the military spending, much can be made up selling elsewhere.  FLIR is landing contracts from all over the world.

Europe has gutted military spending for nearly a decade prior to the Global War on Terrorism.  Prior to 2001.  Europe has been and continues to be reversing course and upgrading their equipment to the latest and greatest vehicles, air planes, UAVs, and yes... Thermal Imaging technology.

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#4) On February 03, 2009 at 5:29 PM, Seano67 (60.27) wrote:

A lot of people were down on defense stocks what with Obama coming in, but I thought at the time and continue to think that was being a little short-sighted. Obama might not be quite the war-mongerer that George Dubya was (or he might, that remains to be seen)....but no matter what, we've still got a hot war going on in Afghanistan (and one which is going to continue to escalate in size, scope and intensity- it's going to heat up a great deal in my opinion. The Taliban is simply not just going to go away, and this has got quagmire written all over it), we've got a resurgent, confident, and aggressive Iran, we've got the North Koreans rattling sabres again...there are still plenty of global threats to United States interests and our own national security.

 

So all that being said, defense will never fall out of vogue no matter which party sits in the Oval Office. Just my opinion...

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#5) On February 03, 2009 at 6:53 PM, UltraContrarian (32.52) wrote:

You could do a lot worse than FLIR, however in this market I see a lot of cheaper companies.  You won't catch me buying a $3.4B company with no free cash flow.

By the way a hold rating is nothing to brag about.  Analysts are very biased on the positive side.  Only about 5% of analyst ratings are 'Sell' so the average 'Hold' is not a very favorable opinion.

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#6) On February 03, 2009 at 8:41 PM, rofgile (99.00) wrote:

AMAT's been pretty beaten up this last year.

It's dividend yield is pretty nice though at 2.5% compared to FLIR's 0% dividend.

I'll stick with AMAT through 2009.. 

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