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IBDvalueinvestin (99.67)

I feel like a FOOL for Listening to Top rated Fools.

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April 13, 2009 – Comments (45) | RELATED TICKERS: GS

I can't believe I went Negative sentiment right at the bottom and have so far missed out on the huge runnup in real life profits.

Just now headlines are passing that GS blows away estimates and I have not profited one dollar since the rise of GS from below $50 to now $136 in after-hours.

 

Who is to blame?? Yes it would be myself, but I also blame all the fools on CAPS that were so bearish that they turned me bearish as well in a time when in my gut I thought I should have been bullish. I shut out my gut feelings for the advice of top rated Caps fools who were all bearish at the bottom in March..

 

Sometimes it just pays to listen to yourself and block out all the fools yelling and screaming that the world is coming to an end.

45 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On April 13, 2009 at 4:50 PM, kaskoosek (69.02) wrote:

Not everyone was bearish.

Actually I reember Dwot saying that the S&P might be a fair price at 750.

Do not blame everything on others.

 

:D

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#2) On April 13, 2009 at 4:50 PM, dudemonkey (38.74) wrote:

The ability to red thumb leveraged ETFs does not actually make one an intelligent investor.

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#3) On April 13, 2009 at 4:59 PM, tfirst (29.67) wrote:

Don't worry... these banks are still in trouble. They want to return TARP so they can hide other losses and illegal expenses.  It's only a matter of time before their true pain begins. I have faith in the public's stupidity which will ultimately do the banks in. This mark to market thing is just another example of the junkies scrapping the bottom of the barrel.

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#4) On April 13, 2009 at 5:01 PM, RonChapmanJr (81.15) wrote:

There is no good reason to listen to most of the top Fools so I would say 100% of the blame for missing out is on you. 

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#5) On April 13, 2009 at 5:05 PM, ttboydxb (28.78) wrote:

Always go with your gut.  Not to say that this market has righted itself, but in investing you gotta make YOUR OWN plan, and stick to it, regardless of what anyone has to say about it.

 

As far as I can tell, you need to listen to ALL the info you possibly can (both Bearish and Bullish), make sense of it on your own, and invest based on that.  I agree with dudemonkey's comment, the ability to red thumb a leveraged ETF's and knowing how to "Play CAPS", doesn't make you a good investor with real money. 

 IBDvalueinvestin ...

All I can say for how you're feeling is that every new trading day is a chance to set your goals and stick to them.  Maybe the market is overbought right now and you'll be happy you didn't invest thru this rally.  Maybe you want to jump aboard this rally and see if it has more legs.  Regardless, remember to try and find good companies at prices you think are fair, that is the simplest form of investing I know, and so far it has worked out for me.

 

Best of luck and hopefully all bulls and bears make lotsa $$$ in the next while!

 

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#6) On April 13, 2009 at 5:12 PM, motleyanimal (85.49) wrote:

My old Uncle Bull Moose used to say:

"It's always easier to join the herd than to leave it."

And my old maiden Aunt Lemuelina Lemming used to say:

"When somebody says follow me, go the other way."

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#7) On April 13, 2009 at 5:13 PM, dudemonkey (38.74) wrote:

I will say that the times I strayed from my own strategy in CAPS are the times that I performed the worst.  The Top Fools have their own strategy and it may or may not mesh well with what you are doing.

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#8) On April 13, 2009 at 5:13 PM, MikeBobulinski (< 20) wrote:

Listening to Top Fools and acting on what you read/hear are two different things.  I say this because CAPs, while holding a wealth of information and knowledge, is not a true measure of any one member's prowess in the stock market.  It's not real.  Any person can grab a handful of stocks and throw a recommendation down and end up with a decent CAPs rating and score.  Until CAPs is directly tied to actual investments, it is merely a game.  When you act on what you have read or heard without exercising your own judgment (be it good or bad) and making your own decisions, then you are the only Fool you can blame.  Heck, even after doing your own due diligence, you are still the only fool you can blame.  Unless one of the top fools was holding a gun to your head and saying "Take my advice, buy this now or you're dead" or the opposite, holding the gun to your head and saying "Short or sell this now, or you're dead", then the only person to blame here...is you.

I'm no pro and would never claim to be such, but I have found that reading what the top fools have to say and then doing a bunch of extra reading is very helpful in making my trading/investing decisions.  BUT in the end, I am the only one I hold accountable for my actions. 

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#9) On April 13, 2009 at 5:24 PM, whereaminow (21.88) wrote:

Like we say in poker "this is why the cards have backs."

You make the best judgment you can with the available information.  In the long run, I suspect some of our top Fools make excellent profits, though others may just be a product of the game. 

It's not really a big deal to miss a rally. There will be others.  I don't think any serious long term investor would get too bent out of shape for missing one rally.

David in Qatar

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#10) On April 13, 2009 at 5:26 PM, rofgile (99.31) wrote:

IBDvalueinvesting:

 I think part of your problem is that you sway your views too easily, and are too moved by short term effects of the market - and bloggers on CAPS.

 Your name includes "valueinvesting" - which is still a good business to be in.  Find companies that YOU can put a price on that the market is obviously selling for too low.  Find other companies that you can definitely say are going to continue hurting and should stay away from.

 A lot of the crying on CAPS is hypothetical fears and issues that may or may not be relevant to all investing ideas - keep your own investing on single companies and their values.  Don't fret about Alstrynomics, Inflation vs. Deflation, the end of the world so we should all buy guns and gun stocks, etc.  Just worry about individual companies and their values and you'll be ok.

 -Rof 

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#11) On April 13, 2009 at 5:34 PM, cbwang888 (25.99) wrote:

It is all about timing. Someone might be benefiting from top fools by not rushing into C when it just broke $10. There are still plenty of bargins and also overvalued pigs.

 

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#12) On April 13, 2009 at 6:19 PM, IBDvalueinvestin (99.67) wrote:

Thanks guys, very informative posts, I actually don't feel so bad now.

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#13) On April 13, 2009 at 6:22 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

I think I am immune to the "Top rated Fools" "talk" not the least since "I am somehow incapable of actually reading these posts" (to cite myself ... see comment #3 of this recent post, which offers some kind of solution to your problem - use them as contra-indicators!).

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#14) On April 13, 2009 at 6:22 PM, devilinside (75.61) wrote:

I appreciate all the coments and feedback from other FOOLS. It gives me some insight as to what other investors are thinking. I never make a decision on a stock soley for the recommendations of others. I do my homework, consider the companies current finacial status and if they have the ability to get through the storm over the next 6 to 12 months. The current run up in this market is insane. The finacial sector is a joke. Do you really believe that all their current earnings are because their loan portfolio is doing so well. Ask yourself a simple question, what has reallly changed in the last 3 months? Not much!When the congressional banking commity and Treasury allowed the banks to do away with "Mark-to Market" they essentially allowed them to legally "Cook the Books." Now give some thought to what is happening right now. Take a look at the unemployment picture. We have had a huge number of layoffs in the last quarter that will impact loan loses in mortgage forclosures and credit card defaults over the course of the next 3 months. And there will be further layoffs in the coming months. All of which will add to the banks "Toxic Waste." Stay away from finacials. There are just too many other sectors to invest in at this time. They have been calling bank assets "Toxic" for a reason and it will get worse before it gets better. I'm up a happy if not sceptical 60% on my portfolio as of today's close. I have 2 stocks that are up 133% and 110% and none of them are in finacials. Pick your battles carefully and go long.

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#15) On April 13, 2009 at 6:24 PM, soycapital (< 20) wrote:

So what is your plan now? I bought close to bottom on CAPS but in real life sat on my hands and watched the whole rally. I'm considering waiting until it really goes up on this rally since I think we are going to 10,000 on Dow and then short ETF and or buy a bear fund for the ride back down. I have no doubt there will be a ride back down from where I see this going. I see no long term bull. I more govt. regs, cap and trade, tapped out public. I also see a wild ride up with all the cash sitting to the side right now and the losses folks have taken. It's going to be just as wild down after the reality hits that we are not whole and are not going to be whole for a long time. So again, what is your plan?

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#16) On April 13, 2009 at 6:39 PM, bubabar (< 20) wrote:

If you are using top CAPS  players as an investment strategy and nothing else, you should be missing out.

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#17) On April 13, 2009 at 7:08 PM, icuryy4me (< 20) wrote:

IBDvalueinvestin

you probably just learned a valuable lesson. As someone once said, experience is the thing you get just after you really needed it. Now, you can consider youself expeienced.

These boards and blogs are superb way to learn and listen. Remember that you have to think carefully about every opinion expressed.

Your pleasure in stock investing will be increased immeassurably by doing your own reaseach. Read all you can. Be informed Beware of the Internet, there are many bear traps out there. Keep daily tabs on all your investments.

Don't be afraid to post. You will learn from hhe replies. Don't be afraid to be wrong. You will learn even more. Some of the comments were hard to hear I am sure. My hope above all is that these boards and blogs are a community where we can all help each other to be the best we can. I too have so much to learn.

 

Good Luck

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#18) On April 13, 2009 at 7:50 PM, awallejr (83.77) wrote:

Well the biggest lesson learned is not to rely solely on the advice of anonymous bloggers.  At best use the site as a tool for researching ideas.  I would pretty much ignore scores of people too, since the game itself is flawed and each person has different motivations behind their stock picking. 

Yeah you have missed a 1500 point move off the bottom, but as others have said there are still a ton of opportunites.  I look at BP, for example, and still love its long term value and it is still trading only around 6 points off its 52 week low (great yield too). 

I think the biggest fear is people don't want to get sucked back in only to watch everything tank again.  I went in some but not as much as I wanted because of this concern. Bought C at $1 and kicking myself for not buying more than I did. 

You are looking at a seasonal rally right now. April tends to be an up month too.  The real question is sustainability and I suspect how the market acts in October will be telling for me.

But always remember each day is a new day and new opportunities will always exist.

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#19) On April 13, 2009 at 7:52 PM, bigpeach (27.37) wrote:

Always remember, CAPS is a game. When investing, the why and how are always important. That being said, take a look at how many of the top players have made their scores. Red and green thumbing every leveraged ETF they can find when the market has momentum, and red thumbing every .PK and .OB piece of crap out there. Good for CAPS points, but neither can really be done in real life. I'm surprised nobody has yet mentioned that CAPS wasn't started until 2006. The only big move since then has been down. It's not surprising that the bears have done better during that time. Will they stay at the top during a bull market? Maybe.

Bottom line: I wouldn't weight a person's advice based on their CAPS score. The quality of their argument is far more important. EverydayInvestor I've always thought had very insightful things to say, even when I didn't agree. I can think of other high scorers whose comments can be dismissed out of hand, despite their high score.

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#20) On April 13, 2009 at 8:12 PM, BuildingWings (< 20) wrote:

Hello. I jumped into the market when it crashed with no prior investing experience. My caps score represents my actual, real money portfolio-- except my actual portfolio performs better than my caps because I got better prices on stocks in real life. Caps is not my first concern.  Anyway, I am typically rated between 97 & 98--so, there are some of us out here trying to contribute with our actual, real-life portfolios. My best advice is to review all of the information on mf, but ultimately make your own decisions.  I do my own research and then check the stocks I like against the caps community.  I wouldn't follow people with 100% accuracy  or who are ranked 100 because they are typically just making picks to win on caps.  A thumbs down doesn't make money. I am not going to waste my time hunting down crappy stocks to put a thumbs down on so I can be a top caps member. I think Buffett's advice is best: "be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful."  Good luck to all.

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#21) On April 13, 2009 at 8:19 PM, drey72 (72.51) wrote:

There are always pros and cons in investing. Gut instinct can be a powerful aphrodisiac but you still must check out the fundamentals and watch for increasing volume! I only look at gainers that are within 5% of their high.These are stocks ready to BREAK OUT!

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#22) On April 13, 2009 at 8:46 PM, Varchild2008 (85.38) wrote:

Crap I don't want people listening to me half of the time....

Stop it!  Never...ever....ever...ever....ever....ever.... Make your judgement call based on someone else's opinion no matter how high and mighty their CAPS score.

Take from someone who was less than 20% just a short time ago.  I mean.. ALL STAR....CRAP....Back to ALL STAR.....

Rrriiiiggghhhtt.... Varchild's a buy!

Fundamentals my Dear Watson!

1)  If it's a Bank.. or Retail company....  GO THERE!  Do your studying inside the bank and ask them questions about their products.  Make the BANK convince you their stock is a buy.

2)  P/E Ratio of 8 or less signals CHEAP unless it signals Bankruptcy.   Goldman Sachs and BOA and Citigroup going under....under Obama's watch??? no way... no how.

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#23) On April 13, 2009 at 9:28 PM, ayekappy (< 20) wrote:

Don't feel bad IBD, I am hanging by a string right now due to this latest rally. I started being short around 750 and look at where that got me.  Oh, and I was bullish at about 750(850 first, ouch) too, but on the left side of the 666. :(

 

I put out a hailmary put on GS, but I fully expect them to f me in the a tomorrow.  Wholefoods has been my nemesis and Radio Shack was none too kind last Friday. :( 

 

Anything long I have are calls from SnP 850 back in Feb, they are still pretty much worthless unless SnP gets to 900ish.

 

Basically I have perfectly timed how to imperfectly time the market, making all the wrong(right, technically) calls at the wrong times.

Oh, and I sold a lot of calls that would have tripled+ in value by last week around SnP 750ish on March 13th, talk about a double whammy of stock pain.

Don't feel too bad. 

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#24) On April 13, 2009 at 10:21 PM, SuperPicks (29.01) wrote:

Before I clicked this blog here, I figured there'd be further flushing of the shorts and we would easily surpass S&P 900.  But now after reading this, I think it could be a short term top indicator, we may start heading lower this week and into the remainder of April.

Hmmm....anyone going to trade on that? 

;)

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#25) On April 13, 2009 at 11:44 PM, Bays (30.12) wrote:

IBD....

What you need to do is come up with your own strategy, (one that works hopefully) and stick with it. 

People complain that Warren Buffet's speach at the annual share meetings is the same every year.  Well that's the whole point, he has never changed his strategy nor did he listen to all the yahoos when they were saying buy internet stocks in 2000.

Don't let one missed rally get you down..... there will be many more.  I mean, the dow is still only 8000.  I still see a lot of great bargains out there.

 

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#26) On April 14, 2009 at 1:24 AM, ralphmachio (25.13) wrote:

This rally was based on absolutely nothing at all.  My only mistake was flipping back to short mode too quickly.  I underestimated how long people would be fooled for. The changes that have taken place are not reason for any sustained rally, so i expect it to correct soon, but when? The world as we know it is going to change soon, but it's schedule may not accomodate every short term investors dreams.  That is something I have to get used to.  Just because the market and the dollar are doomed, doesn't mean we can't have as many irrational rallys as Citi has in the last year. It always goes a little higher than I would have ever believed.  My question is, where do I cash in my FAZ at the end of the world?

Don't blame anyone but you, I won't blame anyone but me.

Maybe blame Cramer, cause it is in style right now. 

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#27) On April 14, 2009 at 1:53 AM, Chromantix (97.79) wrote:

I'm relatively new here, but three things:

1) I think pretty much every person worth following will tell you: "do you own homework". Do it.

2) I read/follow most of the Top Fools, but at the end of the day, it's just their advice.  Treat it as such.

3) CAPS is a game. If every member were required to invest real dollars on all their picks, it would be a much different environment.

 

The moral of the story is: Do your own homework, Warren Buffet is not a CAPS member (that we know of), and people are under no real compulsion to give you the best financial advice available.

BTW: I read/follow your stuff too, IBD - thanks for being part of the community!

 

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#28) On April 14, 2009 at 7:48 AM, AnomaLee (28.60) wrote:

28 Weeks Later: Optimism and Kleptocracy

My first post in March rang with plenty of optimism and coincidentally was right at the bottom. I know others said the same thing. I don't think everyone was a complete bear near the March lows, but you have no one else to blame for your own decisions or indecisions besides yourself.

Personally, I don't care whether I miss a move or not. As long as I don't lose money. That is the most important thing.

You'll get a chance. The market isn't going to close down forever.  So, just because you missed out doesn't mean you should be mad. I wouldnt' be surprised if we retest the lows once more. If that were the bottom then a retest happens more often than not.

Either way we're going to experience a pullback. This rally is about to fully top this week.

Other than that --- Save your emotions for yourself. It's not like any of us are getting paid to give out financial advice, and you get what you pay for.

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#29) On April 14, 2009 at 8:27 AM, maxhoffa (< 20) wrote:

IBD: you just have to make a decision as an investor, just one decision . . . have we seen the bottom (at 666)?  that's all it boils down to. 

base that decision not on what CAPS tells you, but what you believe is the case.

and then invest accordingly.

if you don't think it was the bottom, then your fine, save your dough for the major fall and make a killing.   you're in good shape.

if you think we hit bottom, and your *nom de plume* is accurate, you're a value investor, you're fine as well.  start buying in today in small amounts. expect a significant correction, which will be fine too, because you expect it and will make some dough on the slide down and then dollar cost average on the way back up after the correction.

there is still plenty of value left out there.  it's a LOT scarier buying in now than it was 6wks back when some started doing it, granted, but as a value investor, you should be looking at april of 2010, not april of '09 anyway.  

i bet on the bottom 6 weeks ago and it's been a lot of fun.  but the market ALWAYS leaves you frustrated.  either you bought too soon or too late, too much or not enough, i'm NEVER happy with what i do. ever.  i always want more or i always want less.  never what i have.

but the blame lies with me.  like it does with you.  not with CAPS.  sounds like you figured that out already though.

so anyway, just saying (1) make a decision, (2) plan accordingly, and (3) execute that plan.  

you'll be fine.  

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#30) On April 14, 2009 at 8:30 AM, IBDvalueinvestin (99.67) wrote:

Thanks to all the replies, you guys just proved how insightful you all are and are worth hanging around at CAPS.

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#31) On April 14, 2009 at 9:18 AM, DeadmanLiving (70.07) wrote:

Hindsight is 20/20 and don’t ever let some blog/CAPS member tell you otherwise.

 

Actually it is somewhat funny you have brought this up.  Just within the last month I bought Ford (F) and was very proud of myself.  I did what I felt was my own personal due diligence and it is up 89% since purchase.  Then just yesterday I read the article 5 Stocks You Should Avoid Right Now and the authors call out Ford, I had a brief flash of time where I felt like a fool not a Foolish investor.  But going back to my research I was able to poke numerous holes in the article’s proclamations, including a hideous mistake that was later retracted.  I still feel comfortable with my purchase and in the end I will be the only one to either profit or not profit from my decision

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#32) On April 14, 2009 at 9:41 AM, Bays (30.12) wrote:

DeadmanLiving

Good Job!

That's exactly what you need to do.... come up with your own investing strategy (hoefully one that works), and stick with it! 

That's why Warren Buffeft's annual letter to shareholders is the same year after year. He stays confident in his strategy and doesn't let current trends change it.

He once said that he wasn't any better at valuing a company than the next guy, but what he was good at was keep his emotions in check.

Dont let one missed rally get you down.  There will be more.

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#33) On April 14, 2009 at 11:51 AM, ClandPhoenix (83.47) wrote:

Take into consideration that the top fools generally have a billion points which you do not get from investing in things that you would actually put money into. Only people with a lot of time on their hands and a great deal of experience should be messing with the pks obs and such that you see dotting the picks of top fools.

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#34) On April 14, 2009 at 11:53 AM, Jerryskidz (29.45) wrote:

last time I looked I have split green and red thumbs on builder stocks....  this was one of the reasons why I checked out of caps more or less... the bears were overbearing and when you allow one side to have too much voice then you lose your checks and balances.

last year the bears convinced me to make some bad trades.... you can only burn me once.  i blamed myself as you should yourself.  there were people such as goodvibe pointing out technical bottoms

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#35) On April 14, 2009 at 12:05 PM, StatsGeek (29.28) wrote:

You can compound your error by turning 100% bullish now.

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#36) On April 14, 2009 at 12:14 PM, truthisntstupid (82.79) wrote:

CAPS =  the herd

You follow them, you can't take advantage of the herd's mistakes.

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#37) On April 14, 2009 at 12:16 PM, truthisntstupid (82.79) wrote:

CAPS =  the herd

You follow them, you can't take advantage of the herd's mistakes.

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#38) On April 14, 2009 at 12:43 PM, Bays (30.12) wrote:

"You can compound your error by turning 100% bullish now."

Haha, this is true.

I just purchased some shorts to hedge against my positions.  You'd like to think were due for a pullback.

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#39) On April 14, 2009 at 3:41 PM, DemonDoug (74.00) wrote:

the top fools have been far more correct for far longer than you have been wrong.

also, most of the top fools have taken longer time horizons.  Remember, when the dow hit 7200 in november it ran up well over 9k.  Were you crying in december and january too?  Today's action continues to be a confirmation of fundamentals, as opposed to the idiocy of technicalities.

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#40) On April 14, 2009 at 4:05 PM, Guthree (< 20) wrote:

Yup, you learned a hard lesson.

 I've always been by nature a contrarian, so I'm pretty invulnerable to following other people's advice.  However...one time I was looking to sell stocks in a certain sector and I let someone online talk me out of it.   I paid dearly.  I'd say it was the worst mistake of my investing career.

I think it's best to read online (or any kind) investing information to get ideas to mull over -- but don't take it as advice.  Also, a lot of times you never know where the other person is coming from.  They may have millions invested, or they may only be playing an online investing game.   And they may be 70 years old or 17 years old.

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#41) On April 14, 2009 at 4:06 PM, Guthree (< 20) wrote:

Yup, you learned a hard lesson.

 I've always been by nature a contrarian, so I'm pretty invulnerable to following other people's advice.  However...one time I was looking to sell stocks in a certain sector and I let someone online talk me out of it.   I paid dearly.  I'd say it was the worst mistake of my investing career.

I think it's best to read online (or any kind) investing information to get ideas to mull over -- but don't take it as advice.  Also, a lot of times you never know where the other person is coming from.  They may have millions invested, or they may only be playing an online investing game.   And they may be 70 years old or 17 years old.

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#42) On April 14, 2009 at 4:27 PM, eldemonio (98.64) wrote:

IBD -

Go ahead and blame the top fools.  It's all their fault.  Why should any of us have to research companies on our own?  Damn you CAPS for making me do stupid things! 

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#43) On April 16, 2009 at 1:40 AM, sandrick (83.60) wrote:

The top fools are impressive, but they are select pickers and conservative generally.  They play for the game not the real profits. (maybe not all, but most) My experience is they don't even buy the stocks they pick. If they did, they would all be rich and no longer spending time playing this game.  I bought all my picks, so I don't do as well on my score, but I am up 39% for the year with my picks!  31k in and now at 43k.  As to your specific point, how could you not have bought citi at under 2, or aig at under 1, or gs when it was ridiculous.  I decided I would put 20% in financials and bought all when they were down and everyone ws down on them...that's exactly when to buy.  you have to be your own man - study, research, listen, study research, listen, listen, use all of the tools and  you decide whether you thinik the specific stock (company) will be viable  in 5 years.  I thought ford would be here in 5 years, so I bought ford.  That's worked out for me!  I thought xm radio would be her in 5 years, so I bought it. Yep, that worked out for me so far. The key is to buy the right stocks when they are really depressed...but you personally believe in them.  I have been wrong, but because I watch what is happening daily...I sell when I am proven wrong - or think I was, and I am out before I lose much.

kapich?

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#44) On April 16, 2009 at 2:38 AM, Donnernv (< 20) wrote:

IBD:

You have to separate real-life investing from the CAPS "game".  In the game, people with too much time on their hands chase points with semi-idiotic bets on short-term 2x and 3x ups and downs.  It's gambling.  If you were to attempt to do this in real life, you'd be a daytrader, and probably lose your ass.

Some are very good (or very lucky) at this pursuit.  Good for them.  If the be-all of your life is CAPS points, get into the chase.  But no one would do this in real life unless they were a very active daytrader.  Personally, I have a life to live and more important things to think about.

In real life, step one is to absorb and understand the macroeconomics that govern our economy.  All companies operate within this environment.  Then, understand the impact macro will have on the various sectors.  Finally, pick the best-of-breed from the favored sectors.

And of course, your time horizon is a paramount consideration.  What are you trying to accomplish...by when?  If you're an old fart like me, I don't need, nor shall I chase, more.  I just want to protect what I have.

Second, I am investing a second larger tranche for my kids' future, so that portion has a longer time horizon.  What is your time horizon?  It impacts your best approach toward investing.

I shall make a few ex-cathedra statements.  I'd be happy to debate them with any informed Fool.  I've only got about 10,000 hours invested in the study.

First, we are going through a modest deflation.  This is due to the spiraling declination in the US and world economies.  Read Alstry's blogs for the details, ad nausem.

Soon, say 6-10 months, inflation will begin to take hold.  The challenge for the Fed is to withdraw the injected fiat dollars from the system before inflation gets a death grip.  I believe they will.

We are not facing a V-shaped recession.  The debt explosion must be undone, and this is not a one month or one year job.  I believe we are facing an L-shaped recession that will last for eight to ten years, while the absurd excesses of the past two decades are unwound.

During this period, very, very careful equity selection is required.  What can we count on, for dead sure?  The most valuable resources in the world will be energy, food and water.

The pressures pushing their value upward is inexorable.  Within each of these sectors, the companies that control the critical raw resources and technologies will have an unbelievable tailwind.

Who has the crude oil?  The natural gas?  The coal? The uranium?  The ability to engineer and deliver nuclear power plants?  The expertise in recycling nuclear fuel?

Who has the potash?  The nitrogen-based fertilizer?  The advanced seed technology?  The machinery to farm and make food on a large scale?

And who has control of the water reserves?  Who has the ability to provide the services and equipment to extract and move water to where it is needed?  Who has the ability to make potable water from the sea (desalination)?

During the eight to ten year muddling through, sectors and companies will rise and fall, but in the end, the profound needs of the world will be treasured and rewarded.

Day-trader or investor?  Two week horizon or ten years?  The top-rated CAPS players are very good at this "game".  That doesn't mean squat for the real world.

And for Lord's sake, don't follow the market day-by-day or minute-by-minute.  Once a week is more than enough, way more.  How about the last Sunday in each month, when the world is quiet?

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#45) On April 17, 2009 at 6:57 AM, dwot (55.00) wrote:

Top fool here...

I have made no bearish picks for more then half a year now, so although I am still out of the market I have made no recommendation what-so-ever to jump in bearish.

Indeed, as commented at the top, when it hit the bottom where you seemed to have jumped in I said it was time to start looking at investments, not necessarily to jump in but to assess them.

As for GS, I doubt very much that the current price is sustainable long term.  Actually, I think I will underperform that one.

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