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I hate to say it, but I told you so...



October 01, 2009 – Comments (22)

Come on Fools, I warned you...I hope you listened.

Ever since I told you the market has topped (short term), the market has been going down. Five red days out of 6 trading days...

I told you in this post, either buckle up or sell. I warned you again here.

I hope you were ready for this.

Good Luck!


p.s. Nothing new. I was right many times before... :)


22 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On October 01, 2009 at 3:37 PM, dragonLZ (88.27) wrote:

Look at this chart


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#2) On October 01, 2009 at 3:44 PM, dragonLZ (88.27) wrote:

When many people were telling you the market has topped, and to expect a market's collapse (or something like that), I was telling you here to relax...



Then, here I told you there were 3 more good weeks left in the month of September:

#22) On September 03, 2009 at 10:25 PM, dragonLZ (96.54) wrote:

IMO, market will be higher at the end of September than it is now. I know it sounds stupid (after only 4 days in red), but I think today was the first day of the new run up. I don't think it's gonna be a huge run, but a nice one (Disclaimer: I'm no expert).



#23) On September 04, 2009 at 9:28 PM, dragonLZ (96.54) wrote:

With the market up more than one percent today, I feel very good about the call I made yesterday that we are in for another push higher. Good 3 weeks is what I'm thinking. We'll see...

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#3) On October 01, 2009 at 4:14 PM, goldminingXpert (28.64) wrote:

You should quit bashing all the bears on this site if you want to get applauded for calling down moves.

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#4) On October 01, 2009 at 4:19 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

I think a correction is in order, but I have to say, when it does, that side line money will start to get that itch.  I say we see another few down days, but then it will start to look more and more attractive to get in as we get lower and lower :)

I think the market is way over priced, but people don't want to sit on cash with no possibility of getting any returns worth mentioning, while inflation is coming down the pike.  I think people got a little too ahead of themselves in the precious metals, we are STILL fighting deflation.  If we weren't the rates would have gone up by now.

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#5) On October 01, 2009 at 4:22 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Oh and DragonLZ...GTN blows :P   I got pummeled,but holding on for the long term. 

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#6) On October 01, 2009 at 4:37 PM, jstegma (28.48) wrote:

Let's give credit where credit is due.  Nice call.

Now let's dig a little deeper into dragonLZ and see what he was reading on September 16 and what he had to say about it.  Something about 1100?

See his comments on my one and only top call (which was a few days early):

Calling top

I think I convinced him.

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#7) On October 01, 2009 at 4:53 PM, KamranatUCLA (29.73) wrote:

you got a rec from me. im 100% with you, read some of my posts.

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#8) On October 01, 2009 at 5:04 PM, topsecret09 (90.55) wrote:

  Can I play too ?!?!!      Rally long In the tooth  September 30, 2009 – Comments (5) | ADD RELATED TICKERS

        Charts point towards fall to 9200 on the dow,TEST 1...  9000 TEST 2... With earnings coming out next week,this market SHOULD weaken with corporate results expected to come In weak. The smoke and mirrors,and the cost cutting can only get you through a couple of quarters,after that anything goes....  TS              

#4) On September 30, 2009 at 4:02 PM, topsecret09 (52.51) wrote: ikkyu2 (96.45) wrote:   .  I want to know,  do forward earnings justify the current valuations?    Fundamentals are In constant flux In this market,and I personally do not believe that consistant/and or INCREASING EARNINGS Is possible with the CONSUMER ON THE SIDELINES... I am basing my call on the CHARTS that I have that are flashing extreme caution. Todays (Snap-back rally) Is nothing more than WINDOW DRESSING so the fund managers can say that they were holding the "right stocks" In THE QUARTER THAT ENDED TODAY. Look for a selloff tomorrow.... TS

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#9) On October 01, 2009 at 5:06 PM, topsecret09 (90.55) wrote:

 BAM !!!!!!!!!

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#10) On October 01, 2009 at 5:07 PM, topsecret09 (90.55) wrote:

  Good call DRAGON... was right there with YA...    TS

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#11) On October 01, 2009 at 8:23 PM, dragonLZ (88.27) wrote:

Very nice call topS. Very nice... :)

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#12) On October 01, 2009 at 8:32 PM, dragonLZ (88.27) wrote:

Stegma, did you see me say anywhere that 1100 is gonna happen before this correction? I didn't think so.

You are the one who said 1100 is not gonna happen, and so far you were right.

However, so far, I'm right too as I predicted this correction (if it continues for another 4 weeks or so) much earlier. I said 1200 at the end of this year...

So here is what I said or posted on your blog:

#4) On September 16, 2009 at 2:08 PM, dragonLZ (97.50) wrote:

#7) On July 27, 2009 at 2:28 PM, dragonLZ (98.91) wrote:

outoffocus, you didn't get it.

That was exactly my point. I have no idea why S&P will soon hit 1100, I just know it will. The market (gains in so many stocks, in so many industries, and the huge uptick in volume, as explained) is telling me that.

I don't care why fundamentals didn't improve, or why revenues and earnings are down, or why... All I care is the facts (the one market shows us). If we had justification for why this or that will happen (or happened) in the market, everybody would be rich. Think about it. If it was so easy, we'd just buy stocks when media/news tell you economy is booming, and sell them when they tell us economy is going down. But it doesn't work like that. That's why majority of the people never make money in the market. They wait for justification...

You tell me where is the justification for the gains we had so far? Who cares. If you waited for one, you made no money, and that's a fact.




#14) On September 16, 2009 at 3:36 PM, dragonLZ (97.50) wrote:

Stegma, based on this chart, you called the top at the beginning of July. I'm sure you had some very good explanation / reasoning for it. I'm sorry I missed it. Could've learned something new...

p.s. I'm sure one day you'll be right... :)



#17) On September 16, 2009 at 3:55 PM, dragonLZ (97.50) wrote:

Stegma, I believe you.

p.s. I agree, only one of us will be right about S&P 1,100. Only one of us was also right on LVS... :)



#19) On September 16, 2009 at 4:45 PM, dragonLZ (97.50) wrote:

Thanks Stegma.

As you seem like a pretty nice fella, I'm willing to give you S&P 1180. Everything below that, you win. Everything above it...

p.s. Check this out...

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#13) On October 01, 2009 at 8:36 PM, dragonLZ (88.27) wrote:

GMX, I hear you... I know I can be a jerk sometimes, but I'm working on my people-skills... :)

p.s. Still, I think you should rec me, just as I rec you...respect for investing skills, and stuff,... you know... :)

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#14) On October 01, 2009 at 8:56 PM, Sozurmama (< 20) wrote:

I predicted the drop as well, after i finally cracked under the pressure

got NO love btw.....


September 28, 2009 – Comments (7) | RELATED TICKERS: GER , ONI , MO

I have just liquidated my SDS holdings....i am however still about 60% cash.


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#15) On October 02, 2009 at 10:02 AM, jstegma (28.48) wrote:

dragon -

I'll stick with my 1100 thing, but I think you might have a point about this just being a correction for now.  Earnings season is coming and I think the theme will be exceeded expectations but issued cautious guidance for Q4.  That will keep the market fairly range-bound for all except the junk stocks (AIG, FNM, etc).  I don't see a huge downside move for normal companies until later in the year or early next year.


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#16) On October 06, 2009 at 10:44 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

How about that GTN DragonLZ!?!?! muahahahahah, up 21% today!

K it doesn't suck anymore :)

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#17) On October 06, 2009 at 11:20 AM, dragonLZ (88.27) wrote:

jason, I don't get it. Why are you aking me "How about that GTN?" Very confused...

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#18) On October 06, 2009 at 11:30 AM, topsecret09 (90.55) wrote:

   AHHHHHHHH !!!!!  The Goldman Sachs Rally......   LOL........The BANKS are UNDERPRICED....... LOL !!!!!!!!!!  TS

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#19) On October 06, 2009 at 11:33 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:


You recommended it to me a few weeks ago, I went in at 3.07, and got killed, so sold at 2.37.

Bought back in at 1.91, its up to 2.34-2.40 (depending on the time) and went as high as 2.43.

I made almost $4K today on this stock, but still licking my wounds from the earlier losses.  So I'm probably about even at this point.

I still think long term this stock is a winner, and a possible 2-3 bagger.  I'm looking for it to go to $3-$4 by next year.

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#20) On October 06, 2009 at 11:55 AM, dragonLZ (88.27) wrote:

Jason, I also am a firm beliver that GTN will be a nice little investment...


p.s. Have you seen this? I included GTN in this story, even though it was the only media stock down yesterday. Simply, I just believe in it (my short term target is $4, mid-term $6, long-term $10-12).

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#21) On October 06, 2009 at 1:18 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Yeah I'll need it.

I think I'm going to ride this out, seems like a lot of momentum right now because the dollar is sinking.  This is a good stock in the long run, but they have to get over the massive amount of debt they have.  That's the only thing that worries me.


Keep the suggestions rolling though.

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#22) On October 06, 2009 at 2:44 PM, dragonLZ (88.27) wrote:

Down to being up only 7% today. It sux, but one will need to be patient with this one...a month or two...

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