cecamadocv1 (99.99)

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#1) On August 12, 2011 at 11:11 AM, cecamadocv1 (99.99) wrote:

ooops... Sorry I meant 2 in the top 10. 

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#2) On August 12, 2011 at 11:41 AM, anchak (99.84) wrote:

Close all the rest.....ie the picks....

 

and keep your 2 tops active - and pursue different strategies if you can for each.

Everytime a pick goes against you - you just use the alternate account to open it.....

Its a nice way of knife catching ..... possibly may even work in RL.....

 

But in caps - its does give a distorted pic doesn't it?

 

Your first TVIX short pick was on 7/6/11 - down 140 points!!!

Next was on  7/27/11: Down 94 points

Next was on 8/1/11 : Down 82 points

Next on 8/2/11: Down 89 points

 Next on 8/4/11: Down 42 points. This is the day I went short TVIX - first tranche - in CAPS I am down 50 in RL - my price is close to yours down 40%

 

Your QUADRUPLED that bet on 8/4/11 on 3 other accounts - down 43,43, and 37 respectively

Wow - that's one gutsy move!!!

 

Your last was on 8/10/11: Up 9 points

Mine was on 8/8/11 : Up 17 points on CAPS - you could possibly figure it  out - I have only 1 other - dormant CAPS account.

I shorted TVIX in RL - 2nd tranche on 8/8 and sold on 8/9.

 

 

 

So - YES -  closing and keeping a few core accounts might help - and of course I am sure - you did not short TVIX in RLP - like that - maybe you didn't even short it ever!

 If you did - you have possibly been margin called a few times by now - unless you have enough cash to cover - which I did.

 

 

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#3) On August 12, 2011 at 11:48 AM, L0RDZ (73.52) wrote:

Congrats on tryin to be the tallest midget in the room..

 

LMAO,..

 

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#4) On August 12, 2011 at 11:53 AM, dwot (99.55) wrote:

I got to number 1 in caps when I was actively playing caps and I did very well in the market was I was actively in the market, 200% return in 15 months.  Hard to say which I did better at, caps or playing the market.  I was pleased with both. 

But what of the time you spend at this?  4 accounts...  That has to be worth something.

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#5) On August 12, 2011 at 12:06 PM, dbjella (< 20) wrote:

and may the Lord be with you :)

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#6) On August 12, 2011 at 12:23 PM, TMFCrocoStimpy (93.64) wrote:

cecamadocv1, I'd actually like it if you kept all the accounts open and continue to actively pursue them as you have been doing.  There are only a handful of players who have easily identified multiple accounts of this number, and those accounts are very valuable to developing the next generation tools of sorting independent information streams.  The actual impact on CAPS ratings is very small - the size of the community is such that even if the top 20 players were replaced by a single player with identical picks we would not see any real distortion in ratings.  This level of robustness is what separates the system performance from the individual ranking performance.

What is so helpful about a multi-account player such as yourself is that we can analyze the picks and performance of the different accounts to determine what factors about individual stocks are useful in defining the strategies that you are using, even if you don't think that you are using different strategies in the different accounts (and you may not be - that is part of the modeling).  The value of this is that accounts with similar strategies will rise and fall in a correlated fashion (correlated to each other), so once we can expand the comparisons between different players (not just players with similar accounts) then we can start to understand the fundamental strategies that are employered in CAPS, rather than just the accounts themselves.  That will allow us to ultimately remove some of the concern about having an overweighting of particular strategies occurring that might come up naturally (think the energy bubble in 2008 Q3, when a large number of players adopted momentum strategies that ultimately bit them), or that occur intentionally through either multiple accounts such as yourself or the mimicking behaviour that comes from following others.

Long way of saying "please, keep up the good work" :)

-Xander

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#7) On August 12, 2011 at 12:34 PM, cecamadocv1 (99.99) wrote:

Thanks

 

and the midget comment by  Lordz had be dying.

 

I was thinking maybe one of the accounts, I'll close all the picks once they turn Green and just stop making picks for it.  That should slow its rise.  I'll keep it in the top 25 and it'll just have a high accuracy instead of points.

 

But I'll keep on playing...  And I can't wait to get to make some quotes... lol I'm sort of a quote machine here at work, lol  Even got a co-worker who steals my quotes and wants to put them on Tshirts.  

6 more months!!!

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#8) On August 12, 2011 at 12:43 PM, TMFCrocoStimpy (93.64) wrote:

>>6 more months!!!

I like that attitude!  One of the greatest interests that we have is watching how individual players strategies evolve as the market shifts its macro characteristics, and how the robustness (or lack thereof) of the ratings adapts to the change in market conditions.  Because the ranking is done on a relative scale then it would be easy to become adept at a particular strategy and stay on top, but if other dominant strategies become more profitable (from a CAPS perspective) then players who are correlated with one-another have a tendency to slip very quickly out of the upper eschelons if they don't rapidly adapt to the new strategy.  We have found that the robustness of the CAPS signal (the ability to differentiate outperforming stocks from underperforming stocks, on the scale of the star rankings) is strongest when the level of diversity in strategies is high.

Fool On,

Xander

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#9) On August 12, 2011 at 12:52 PM, EnigmaDude (96.57) wrote:

I have been watching you Cec.  Trying to learn from you as you have risen quickly thru the ranks.  I don't have the time (or really even the competitive desire) to be number 1 in CAPS but I do respect your ability to play the game.  And I look forward to reading some of your quotes.

Fool on, dude!

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#10) On August 12, 2011 at 5:34 PM, TDRH (99.85) wrote:

You should sell one of them to Alstry to give him come credibility.

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#11) On August 12, 2011 at 6:03 PM, SultanOfSwing (99.55) wrote:

But I have pretty much destroyed this game

CV,

The game will go on and on.  You haven't destroyed it.  Long after you've gotten bored with the game and either let your score go south like a middle-aged guy's gut or just closed all your picks, there will still be plenty of other players who will try dominate the game just like you are right now.  So keep it up!  And remember, guys like me will be gunning for you!   ;)

Now if CAPS can just get rid of those time bomb charm players...

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#12) On August 12, 2011 at 6:33 PM, outoffocus (24.55) wrote:

Hey... I have a bomb charm...and so does Dwot...

Its not I haven't been playing the game. I'm just focused more on closing picks than opening them. At one point I had almost 200 picks. I'm down to 154 and counting. My goal is to eventually get down to <100.  I want to simplify the portfolio so I can focus better on the picks I have. So far closing picks has worked for me because its improving my accuracy. 

So no Motley Fool, do NOT get rid of my account. 

 

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#13) On August 12, 2011 at 6:57 PM, EvilEmpire (33.03) wrote:

+1 for your reason for doing this.

Brainwashed religious folks are the worst although I do kinda feel sorry for them in some ways.

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#14) On August 12, 2011 at 7:34 PM, TMFCrocoStimpy (93.64) wrote:

#12 outoffocus, I've been working on ways to differentiate accounts that are 'dormant" but still actively monitored (such as yours and dwot's accounts) vs. accounts that have been actually abandoned.  We will always err on the side of caution in terms of keeping the accounts contributing to the community intelligence.  Even accounts that have been left behind will never actually disappear - part of our transparency goal is to maintain the entire history of CAPS to anyone who wants to search through the site.  We already use a time decay method in our scoring which will take out the effect of truly abandoned players eventually, but I'm definitely trying to fine tune that based on whether or not players with the bomb charm are still visiting the CAPS site (which indicates some level of interest as still evident).

Fool on, Xander

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#15) On August 12, 2011 at 9:47 PM, CallingBS (< 20) wrote:

Your scores indicate nothing except how obsessive-compulsive you are and how much free time you have to exploit flaws and bugs in the CAPS system to get cheap points. Perfect example - your player cecamadocv downthumbed HQ Sustainable Maritime Industries on April 1 after it was halted in the real world but still ratable on CAPS. I'm sure if I cared I could find hundreds of picks like that in your history. CAPS is filled with ways to get cheap bogus points which is why no one with any experience here takes scores or ratings seriously. Hopefully no one here misinterprets your points as predictive ability and follows you into any stock picks. 

 

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#16) On August 13, 2011 at 11:27 AM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

 CallingBS  I've agreed with many of your comments since you started calling BS to point things out that may not otherwise be observed.  I also believe that there are many ways to play this game and for the few who aspire to be top players then I say let them play it as long as what they accomplish was accessible to all, (even if it takes a tremendous amount of time that most don't have and that Cec clearly doesn't acknowledge).  Cec clearly understands the gaming part, it's in his first sentence of this blog, and his first thought.

I think there is something to be learned from all styles of play.  Cec Amado has probably the fewest upthumb points on US based company's that you can find in a top player.  He's started to make a few more upthumbs lately, but his closed profile shows very few US based main board company's.  Those observing him should be aware of that.  Good multi-bagging upthumbs will outweigh his style, but with the accuracy rule, it's harder to prove it.

I don't feel that anyone should follow any player, but a top score shows ability at reading the markets, sorting thorugh the trash, and timing skills.   A top player, even one who games the system requires some analytical ability.  There is something to be learned from these traits if one keeps them in context.

As far as following, no one should follow anyone, but unfortunately it does happen.  To the extent that one can follow here on CAPS and learn from it, then there are multiple market niches to explore.  New players should look at pick score average, multi-baggers, duration of picks, etc.

Some like UltraLong hit the timing on the crash, but he still stretches using his valuation methods on other company's and it looks like Cec is getting more interested in actually putting his analytical abilities more forward looking on more mainstream company's.

TSIF

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#17) On August 13, 2011 at 11:28 AM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

As  TMFCrocoStimpy indicates, we adapt over time and we either adapt in a productive way that continues to show positive results or adapt in such a way that we diverge from the fluid nature of real life.  Right now, I find it very hard to focus on buy and hold, it's a traders market.  Traders who don't do well will not last long.  I try to be both and once you understand that 70-80% of the equities out there are going to have depreciating stock values during their existance it helps you focus on trying to discern the winners.  Finding winners means understanding why others are losers.... or how winners can become losers and losers winners.

At any rate, I disagree with Stimpy that having 10 accounts doesn't unbalance things somewhat. It probably doesn't on company's that have long term existance and lots of followers, but there are a alot of new company's getting some attention and fewer picks on those can be unbalanced. I know of a few equities with about 15 players who have picked them. I can swing the star system two places by adding my call opposite to the majority.  Multiple similar accounts would magnify that. I'm surprised at the number of IPO's the last year and how few players have picked up on them.

I also believe that it generates a sense of unfairness to newer players or those who don't understand the variations, when players have multiple accounts that are so similar. I definitely appreciate that Cec keeps the naming conventions that he does so one can discern them. They are so similar that I rarely check in on more than one of them, but I know it's him if it's a new found addition to CAPS and it has ten quick downthumbs (and one star).

So in short, different styles present different learning opportunities, but I do agree that those who are watching high player accounts should try to understand that players style and philosophy and that it may not translate to something they can use in real life. I like the new volume rules on the equities. It makes the PK and OB plays more real life, but I'd still advise people not to play them in real life if they don't understand the differences, (foreign investment rules, reporting, volume swings, etc).

Cec has seven players ahead of me as I dance around the top 50.  My call on some market bounce on the debt ceiling resolution is killing me for now.  Overall, at least I know it's one person in those seven accounts and if he messes up then I'll be there!!!  ;)

 I gave up top thoughts when I understood about the accuracy rule and then took my beating on my downthumbs on what I thought were "dead" company's.  I turned my back for awhile traveling and they taught me some valuable lessons that I use successfully, but swallowed a lot of my points. You can't get accuracy back after 3,000 picks very easy, so I'll just have my own brand of fun and learning. Less pressure means more experimenting and more learning. Overall, accuracy destroyed for a top spot or not,  I'd rather chase Cec and his seven players ahead of me than the 88% that carry bombs, (the really inactive ones, not DWOT and OutofFocus who are just learning and improving stealth style).   ;)

TSIF

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#18) On August 15, 2011 at 8:53 AM, lemoneater (88.58) wrote:

@ #13 I just couldn't resist repeating this comment made centuries before I was born. "If it weren't for the Resurrection, Christians would be the most miserable people on earth." -Paul formerly Saul of Tarsus.

CVdynasty, good job on your players. Perhaps you could make some catchy T-shirts for a funraiser. Both Hobby Lobby and A.C. Moore have plain colored shirts waiting for a glorious destiny.

My dream job would be writing slogans or naming products like shades of paint: Pensive Peach, Vermillion Sunset, and so forth. In the meantime, I content myself with renaming familiar companies to suit myself: Red Lobster = Garnet Crustacean, Food Lion =Vittles Kitty.

Have a good day!

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#19) On August 15, 2011 at 9:22 AM, TMFBlacknGold (99.41) wrote:

Listen to #10, give one to alstry! lmao

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#20) On August 15, 2011 at 10:46 AM, cecamadocv1 (99.99) wrote:

@TDRH lmao, too funny.  

@SultanOfSwing  i don't see myself getting tired of this anytime soon.  I spend basically 30 minutes a day on Fantasy baseball, 30 mins on caps in the morning.  Then I check Caps at lunch, and if i have time 3:30.  If it became time consuming, which i don't ever see happening, you may be right. 

@ EvilEmpire agreed!

 

@CallingBS  whatever dude, stophating...  you act like all my picks are illegal picks, I probably got like 5-6 that shouldn't of counted,big deal

@TSIF love reading your pitches, and even your super long comment.  Thanks! lol

 

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#21) On August 19, 2011 at 10:38 AM, ImpetuousFool (99.70) wrote:

This is so much more englightening, gratifying and fulfilling than 30 minutes a day on fantasy basketball ever was.

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#22) On August 24, 2011 at 12:12 PM, ayaghsizian (98.70) wrote:

I have noticed that a disproportionate number of people have ratings over 95.  This probably implies that by just playing caps you're likely to do better than average, and by putting a few minutes of thought into your picks you'll get a score over 75.  But I wonder how many people actually TRY to get a high score.  

 

My score is over 95 due to shorting a few things that would obviously go down, but does anyone actually try to get a great score of 99.99 or better?  My hunch is that 50 Fool accounts are competing for a spot in the top 50, or something like that.  So whoever has a rating of 100 is first out of 50 instead of first out of 100,000.  An accomplishment still.  First in most anything is an accomplishment.

 

I'd like to see an account with dozens of upthumbs, no downthumbs, picking similar to how they trade, and a score of 99 or better.  They only articles and comments I take very seriously are they ones that end in "I AM LONG XYZ".   

 

 

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#23) On August 24, 2011 at 5:42 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

" disproportionate number of people have ratings over 95"

The same number of people have ratings between 95.00 and 100.0 (barring a small rounding percent and including the extra 0.01 top, as do between 90.00 and 94.99 and the same as 45.00 and 49.99. 

About 87% of accounts were made and are inactive, (no picks in 90 days).  Some accounts that were started during the Oct 2008 and March 9th 2009 crash may be actively managed, but still a low rating. Timing has some effect, but yes, a managed account, (closing picks not working, opening others at an opportune time, managing accuracy when closing picks) will definitely get you above 75.

Due to the Accuracy rules and timing, few fools aspire to be top fool. Most are here to test their own picks or to learn.

Learning means trying many styles, sectors, timing, valuation methods, fundamentals, etc, not necessarily holding. Overall, however you will find several Fools holding real life portfolios similar to their caps.

I would agree that Top Fools may have much less competition than one might imagine to hold the spot, but they had to "compete" hard to get ahead of 80,000 accounts. Some of the dead ones are doing quite well and there is a lot of variety in those 80,000 accounts.

Good luck.

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#24) On August 29, 2011 at 3:17 PM, peterod (88.83) wrote:

Incredible Job and Congrats!   I was wondering if you are using a stock picking software to backtest your ideas and place trades?   Thanks and best of luck!

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#25) On August 30, 2011 at 2:34 AM, cecamadocv1 (99.99) wrote:

My strategy is basically mostly the psychology of the market.  I try and play the etf's and i rarely will leave an etf in the positive for more then 3 days.

 I wrote an article or comment last year that the best way to beat caps was too play the market like a wave.  Its basically true, if i get 20-25 pct on a stock, and i think the market is going to sell off, i close my pick, and if it drops 10-15 pct, i might reopen and play it again.

I also have many stocks where I pick it one week to go up, then the next month, down.  I do this over and over...

 I briefly look at graphs, and numbers.  at most i spend 2 minutes on a pick, on a upthumb maybe 3-5 minutes...  

Eventually if I ever get to 1 or 2, I will start taking my time, and picking more stocks that can actually help people instead of just shorting stocks which some you cant even short in real life.

 

 

 

 

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#26) On August 30, 2011 at 2:35 AM, cecamadocv1 (99.99) wrote:

And no, i don't use any stock picking sites, or get ideas from anywhere.

 

When i first joined, i used the anticitrade site, and i found that pretty useful.  Looking for great value picks...

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#27) On August 30, 2011 at 11:08 AM, peterod (88.83) wrote:

wow! thats amazing.... I figured you were using something like meta stock or esignal to help you evaluate your strategies and then automate.....   Anticitrade is more of a fundamental multifactor model.... i figured yours was just a momemtum multifactor model...but doing it on gut feel is incredible...  you shouldconsider starting a hedge fund!

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#28) On September 08, 2011 at 11:26 AM, cecamadocv1 (99.99) wrote:

Ok now I am gloating:

lol...  I don't use any system, or secret.  But i really seem to know what is going to happen, usually 3-4 days before it happens.  Market is pretty volatile and sometimes my calls are wrong.  (like thinking the debt resolution would bounce the market upwards)  My real life portfolio where I usually don't short.  80 pct I am buying, 20 pct of the time I short.  I think my last 50 buys, i made gains on like 42 of them within 10 days.  but sometimes I make a good 3 pct and i sell, if i think market is going to stagnate or go down.

I also don't really do research even when I buy in real life (bad i know), but when i do, its usually spot on.  I have tons of friends calling me all the time, i've recently started to notice this.  Fantasy football advice, my gambling friends hit me up constantly for picks, poker strategies, stock picks, should they sell or hold.  how to get the girl they been chasing for months, and etc...lmao  I really should start charging people.  And yes I plan on the next year or so pooling lots of money and creating a mini fund, where I will aim for gains  of 2-5% pct every 10 days.  Which I have been doing consistantly for the past year or so.

 

Gloating feels good... lol 

 

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#29) On September 12, 2011 at 9:47 PM, GundersonGroup (59.71) wrote:

Once you hit Top Fool on one of your accounts maybe you can start experimenting around with one of your lesser ranked accounts. Shoot for average pick score in double digits. All-Time Best/All-Time Worst >2.0 instead of 0.5. It would be interesting to see how pushing for those types of stats would effect rank. Perhaps you can get Motley Fool to make some changes as your accounts are a very visible presence and I would expect your voice to be heard.

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#30) On September 13, 2011 at 9:16 PM, peterod (88.83) wrote:

At the bucket shop I used to trade in, my old boss would trade with a smilair simple strategy for swing trades just using simple moving averages and taking small possitions in like 30 to 40 stocks for a few days and made a ton.....  Its going to be hard though to scale that up as you get more capital though....

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#31) On September 15, 2011 at 9:04 PM, Quantemonics (99.81) wrote:

You need to start a real world Covestor fund - I "want" some competition over there.

I consider only 5 or 6 individuals on Covestor, as honest competition for me.

Your friends can link to, and mirror your portfolio automatically with ultra-low commissions.  Plus, you keep a cut for each account following your creation.

I had 2 out of Top 5 on CAPS for a few days in 2009, #1 and #5.

Another character on CAPS, portefeuille, had something like 3 or 4 in Top 20 for a spell in 2009.

Nice Job!

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#32) On September 16, 2011 at 9:28 PM, peterod (88.83) wrote:

why give covestor 1/2 of all your fees if you could do the same thing by opening an account in Interactive Brokers.  If you have a good track record with real money it should be no problem raising capital and keep 100% of your earnings.....

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#33) On September 16, 2011 at 9:51 PM, TMFUltraLong (99.96) wrote:

I plan on re-ascending to the top spot soon... one more move lower should catapult my accuracy back to 87%, then on the way back up it should hit 88-89%... Babo isn't that far from there. True I'm a clean 5000 points from him, but with 2000 fewer picks, my accuracy should be enough to sneak me back up to the top.

TMFUltraLong

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#34) On October 17, 2011 at 7:03 PM, anticitrade (99.58) wrote:

Just stopping in and reading a few posts, good to see that my website was of value to you.  I wish I had the time to get back into it, but lately I have been using all my free time to eat and give my kids a hug goodnight.  Good luck all!

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