July 22, 2009
– Comments (15) |
RELATED TICKERS: QQQ
August 38s for 87 cents. First big options trade I've made since before March lows... everything is aligned for these puppies to triple.
I'm surprised that they are 87 cents since there are only 4 1/2 weeks until expiration and the QQQQ's closed the day at 38.50 (ie out of the money). With the 39s priced at 1.39, I would think that would be the better play.
Good luck on your trade.
Man, I'd follow you into this trade, but options stress me out. Especially front month!
Good luck - I may hop in if you're significantly wrong from here. :D
I'd tell you what I think of this trade but ...
stock market perma bear
Oh dear! Please tell us you have tight stops...
No stop whatsoever. If I lose 100% of the trade, it will be because I shorted insanity and got the timing wrong. If the QQQQ goes to 40, I'll just buy longer-dated puts. The only other time I've seen such mass insanity was back in 1999 and we all know how that turned out...
going for .61...eeeeek I am 100% SRS, not messing with the options this month.
I do admire a man of such conviction...and the balls of a warrior.
You are of course right about the insanity...and right about 1999 as well. I must say (and do not intend gloat or brag) that I made a huge amount of money playing that insanity (amat, aol, yahoo) and cashed out when supports broke...Also made out extremely well on the short side after the breaks...mostly beginning mid to late 2000...I will not have a problem repeating the patterns, though I am heavily weighted in gold this time and am not sure I'll have to dump when the insanity "blows up" the markets. I will do as trendlines say to me though.
Wow, I may just buy some August 39s for 87 cents. Well, 87 dollars.
I'm holding my breath, though - insanity is like a long, long tunnel!
Go back and read the Dow and S&P numbers i said back in March April May and June. It was very simple dow would close above 9000 and S&P would go above 950 if not 1000 by years end if not this month we are currently in. You may have to buy more to cover the losses you may occur in this trade. Goodluck either way.
#7) On July 23, 2009 at 11:29 AM, alexpaz (97.60) wrote:
Careful pal, this sounds too dangerous unless your 100% is v. v. small portion of your net port or you are very knowledgable indeed. These suckers (SDS, SRS, FAZ, etc) decay like anything. I feel they should be banned or sold with a huge warning like a cigaratte.
GMX - I love you for your conviction here. I'm licking too many wounds to go buying puts here - I'm just levered and short the market here.
I agree the market is much like 1999 ... but I guess Wall Street will never change - we are being pitched a story that has a shelf life of 6-8 months left on it. Wall street always has a story to sell - right now it's strong recovery and resilient cost management.
I don't doubt that we recover from the Lehman collapse run-rates but its absolutely silly to see late cycle stocks like steel companies rallying... that is insane.
My preference to shorting tech is shorting late cycle stocks like steel and auto parts suppliers. Their recovery is far off.
Check your watch everyone. We are deep into July with the averages making new annual highs. Now, if we were into October and making new annual lows. perhaps I might think differently.
Real Bullish news I heard today. There is 7 TRILLION in cash waiting to get into this market. 7 Trillion! And they're waiting....
i am long spy puts that are horrifically underwater right now, also for august. lol
can't win 'em all, i'm letting them ride for a while and seeing what I get.
but to liken a market that is A) not up in 12 years B) down just under 40% from highs of 2 years ago C) down 35% in 9 years D) below historical averages for price/book, price/cash flow, price/sales, price/gdp to 1999 (all time epic high valuations) is a little bit out there. Left field, though, has nice grass. :)
1999 ? What the hell are you people talking about ? Are you old enough to remember that ?
in 1999, the economy was hot, most tech stuff was new, stocks with no earnings were soaring. Nobody wanted value or oil or gold. The government was showing unusual fiscal restraint.
This market could not be more different than 1999.