The site will be unavailable in 49 minutes for scheduled maintenance.

Use access key #2 to skip to page content.

I Like It On Top...

Recs

29

October 13, 2008 – Comments (18)

and you can interpret that any way you like...

I just had to have some fun with being number one fool before some rising star takes my place.

Here's a player that is doing awesome, only started in May, featuring andlonmia.  Certainly this game does give advantage to longer term players.

Hey developers, how about a ranking on players joined in the last 6 months or year so the newbies can compete on more favourable terms.

18 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On October 13, 2008 at 12:59 PM, anchak (99.84) wrote:

Congratulations .....Of course you know all CAPS is looking for the day when you go long.....Love the message.

Also I second this thought....with following modifications

(1) CAPS should have a time/duration weighted scoring system. Both points and accuracy should decay over time.

I think decay honestly shouldn't apply to points but the issue is that way someone who enters lets say in 2009 - has too much catchup to do with people who started in 2006.

Basically, this is an unbounded problem with varying time entry. To use the score and say it standardizes everybody is simply misrepresentative.

(2) I think decay should be extremely important for Accuracy.

I think highest weighting should be given to 1 year accuracy, next 6 months and least anything beyond 1 year. The rationale for keeping accuracy is to identify people who are able to identify trends on a consistent fashion.

(3) Also the fledgling years for CAPS have been a watershed period in the global markets history. The volatility seen has been unmatched - which in turn has created tremendous opportunities for garnishing points. This as things stabilize will not be true going forward. Which means just getting to 1000+ points could take years - not months as seen here.

 

Report this comment
#2) On October 13, 2008 at 1:07 PM, HooDaHeckNose (95.79) wrote:

My Goodness, I'm SHOCKED. Such naughty inuendo (make of THAT what you will!) from a cultured Canadian school teacher!  ;p

 Belated congratulations on making it to #1. Well done!

Report this comment
#3) On October 13, 2008 at 1:45 PM, alstry (35.02) wrote:

Sweethheart,

If you don't think I am going to be on top of you soon........you havn't been around me long enough.  Just ask my wife...why do you think we have been together so long.......and she plays at the top of her game.

Report this comment
#4) On October 13, 2008 at 1:46 PM, GeneralDemon (< 20) wrote:

Dwot on top - will you also wisper good stock picks into my ear?

Report this comment
#5) On October 13, 2008 at 1:54 PM, alstry (35.02) wrote:

Anchak,

I disagree about time decay of points.

The only place where I see CAPS shortcomings is where it deviates from real life......if someone is red thumbing in a declinning market environment.....and the market drops 20% and his pick drops 40%.....he only gets 20 points where as in real life he would make 40%.  Where as with the same market decline but he green thumbed a pick that only dropped 10%....he would get 10 CAPs points where as in real life he would be down 10%.

But the issue works the same for all and all can adapt to it accordingly.  This is something that I have recently began to look at and that is why I think over the next six months to a year things might get interesting for many.  You are going to see a lot of top players fall back, including myself maybe, and other players rise to the top.......

In the end, if the same rules apply to all.....then let the races begin.

DWOT, despite being a canuck.....you are OK on many levels.   You can be on top any day of the week.....unless I am in the room.  Keep up the great work.....in all respects including blogging and playing the game.

I myself will not limit my blogging to improve my score....where it counts I have a reputation for being able to do many things at once.

Report this comment
#6) On October 13, 2008 at 1:55 PM, degaston (99.56) wrote:

I don't think that andlonmia is a good example of a rising CAPS start that I'd put on my radar to watch. This player came along and made a bunch of picks and hasn't made any updates in nearly 5 months. I prefer to follow the picks of players who regularly add new picks and who regularly close out picks. And I especially look for players with good total point scores, good ranking (i.e. that 1/3rd for accuracy is important) and also I look for players whose scores have a nice uptrend and not lots of volatility. Look how andlonmia is doing today in being down almost 1000 CAPS points. It appears that andlonmia's portfolio is strictly broad market bearish. That's all fine/dandy when the market is crashing. But in the long run the mattress is a better place to invest money than being short-n-hold.

On the other hand, dwot is holding steady today on a very strong UP day despite being a bear. Her negative picks like mcbi, bari, rf, mho and gg are down while the market is up.

 

Report this comment
#7) On October 13, 2008 at 2:05 PM, alstry (35.02) wrote:

Sorry for taking up so much space in your room.....

Deg....you are dead wrong on this one.....

andlomia score is not only amazing.....IT IS ABSOLUTLEY FRICKEN AMAZIING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Nobody in CAPS comes close...even the great me or DWOT.......this players AVERAGE SCORE is over 50 with 75 picks.....and I thought I was good behind closed doors.  This feat is practically impossible accomplish that with the CAPS scoring system in a down market and the player being net short.  That is outrunning the market by OVER 70% on an objective basis.

Without looking at the portfolio with too much detail....this player should be bronzed....now the only question is whether there is any staying power.

 

Report this comment
#8) On October 13, 2008 at 2:11 PM, dwot (43.46) wrote:

anchak, another problem would be with the scoring.  Many investments would have wiped out tons of capital, yet if your pick is down only 30% compared to 40% you get a positive score. You can have lost 1/3rd of your portfolio and be green in CAPS...  Do you feel like a winner?  It certainly doesn't reflect the pain people are feeling.

I went almost 100% red thumb when I decided the risk of this market down turn was far too great for any possible gains and also that I could not time when the unwinding would happen or predict where the dead bodies would be flying.  I have taken a lot of critism over not having "real investment" choices (green thumbs) that would grow.  That was my way of reflecting my beliefs around the market.

Of course, I didn't consider how to close out a loser when the S&P is a greater loser....

Lol hooDaHeckNose.

Alstry, that could very well be, in the game that is :).

GeneralDemon, I should probably start doing research now...

Report this comment
#9) On October 13, 2008 at 2:17 PM, dwot (43.46) wrote:

Thanks degaston...  Actually if you look closer you will see that I have been reducing my number of open picks.  Take that as a statement of uncertainty.

Report this comment
#10) On October 13, 2008 at 4:16 PM, biotechmgr (34.15) wrote:

Too bad that you can't UnRec a post. This was supposed to be an investing community, not a personal playground.

Report this comment
#11) On October 13, 2008 at 4:36 PM, abitare (31.93) wrote:

dwot,

Your subject line and picture is distracting many from focusing on the market...

and you can interpret that any way you like...;)

Report this comment
#12) On October 13, 2008 at 4:56 PM, jgseattle (34.10) wrote:

andlonia is very clever.  He is using pro funds and EFTs to short the market almost any way you can.  1)  Using Ultra short funds 2) then shorting the index of the ultra short fund he is long.  This gives him a lot of exposure on the short side!

He opened all of his positions in May 2008 and has had a great run.  I did not look for closed positions but it will be interesting to see how this strategy plays out.  short term it is going to hurt long term it is a very interesting CAPS strategy.

I think the top CAPS players should be stock pickers and use the EFT a little more limited.  But hey I am using a basket approach to the CAPs them taking te position down to a few stocks so that is not exactly a stock pickers approach either.

I like to see different strategies and can appreciate all of them and so long as everyone has the same opportunities let the best stategy win

Report this comment
#13) On October 13, 2008 at 5:21 PM, jstegma (29.15) wrote:

Glad you like it on top, but now its time for the bottom. 

The market bottom of course, after which you probably won't be on top in CAPS.

Report this comment
#14) On October 13, 2008 at 5:35 PM, adventurerneil (21.02) wrote:

While I admire the adlonmia's and cipostripes' of the CAPS community, they don't really add much to the intelligence factor. No pitches, no blogging, and a bomb for a lucky charm make them seem more like ghosts...

But Canadians teachers who can joke about sex...  now there's an asset! :D

Report this comment
#15) On October 13, 2008 at 6:54 PM, nuf2bdangrus (< 20) wrote:

Dwot...you got all the fellas worked up here.  Perhaps the comment added to that cute little Santa hat.  Visions of cold Canadian nights with....well...you get the jist.

 

We love CAPS scoring when it works well.  CAPS is a community of LTBH as a philosophy of its founders.  I think the last couple of years has shown that approach to be permantelty outdated.  If the held all their positions, their formerly up 75% returns have been all but wiped out, and worse, wiped out in a matter of months.  That's the way markets work.

 

I think the new reality is that hedge funds have amassed unregulated capital at high leverage into a wild west game of shootout in which momentun trumps any fundamentals...their cronies.  err..analysts, will spout all the rationale to justufy momentums (rmemeber solar?  GS pumped FSLR all the way up, and now trash solar on the way down...think that trade matches their book?).

 

As to scoring, CAPS scoring is not nimble enough for this market.  30-40% moves in a single day trap players in picks when EVERYTHING changes.   Also,  often green thumb a pick when I make my first tranch into the stock. If it goes down, I will buy more, but CAPS can't acknowledge that.  Also, we weight picks differently in real life, and as small caps have much more volatility, you can red thumb pinksheet stocks and gain points, but is that an investing strategy?

 

As for ETF's, I love them as trading vehicles, especially the unltras as a good hedge.

 

As for being on top, I've found myself on the bottom a lot of late.  I guess it all depends on who you're under.!

 

BTW  whispering stocks picks is certainly an interesting twist!!!

Report this comment
#16) On October 13, 2008 at 8:24 PM, TMFCHarris (99.54) wrote:

Thanks for pointing out andlonmia. I can't believe that his worst pick (out of 74) is a -9.99. That is ridiculous skill coupled with some mathematically implausible luck.

Report this comment
#17) On October 13, 2008 at 8:36 PM, dwot (43.46) wrote:

Biotechmgr, too bad you can't bad people from your blog.

AresFinancial, you can't concentrate on the market on what, an almost 12% up day?

jgseattle, see, this is where my inexperience comes in.  I know math and I am very good at analytical and critical thinking and I have enough downside experience to have a health sense of distrust and actually use my skills to decided what makes sense for me.  But I am not particularly familiar with ETFs and profunds.

jstegma, what makes you think I will play my current strategy forever?  At this point in the market I am uncertain.  When I went to mostly underperform I was highly certain the market was bad.  I am not sure how to assess the actions of the past few weeks at all.  I have little confidence that the worst is behind at this point.  If you look at the massive bailouts, well there has to be a massive cost and I have to background think this through for a few weeks before I come to conclusion about what I think it might do.

adventurerneil, really, who said anything about sex?

nuf2bdangerous, when I was in the market I didn't buy and hold at all.  I intend to, but the way the market swings...  If a stock was up 10% in a month I sold it, every time.  What is really interesting is there is one that I sold for about a 50% gain that took off the following week and went on to be up about 500%.  Now it is at about 20% of where I originally bought...  So from this bottom to the top is about 2500%...  People keep saying the market knows.  The market is clueless.

Report this comment
#18) On October 16, 2008 at 7:26 AM, dinodelaurentis (74.68) wrote:

tops, bottoms, let's not argue about who's on top of who...

anybody for dorsal?? :D

(psst... canadian teachers are hot!)

dwot, you are SO Foolish!!!!

Report this comment

Featured Broker Partners


Advertisement