I made all my money by selling too early
The post title is a quote by Bernard Baruch, who made very much money indeed. That is how he thought about the way he acquired $1 billion; who am I to argue?
I eased myself out of Intel today at $26.83 and change. I still like the company long term and I think it's silly to think that with the kind of capex they're doing and with the demand for devices all over the world that they have got their lunch permanently ate. I am just watching the S+P inch closer and closer to 1920, which was my guess about where it's going to get dead in the water - go mammaries up - just before it sinks.
I am now about 20% in cash and considering liquidating some pretty sorry positions - MO and PM, after 3 years of outperformance 2008-2011, are locked in this ugly sideways churn where you can tell if the buyback is on or off any given week. They're losing revenues - not a lot, but a little - and hell, the handwriting may be on the wall; the world may be populated with people who are coming to value life over vice. Hard to believe, isn't it.
My last - most recent - stock purchase is Potbelly (PBPB). It's a casual dining restaurant chain that seems to have a concept, a decor, and a shred of authenticity to boot. They are named after the antique potbelly stoves that grace all their locations; I wonder how much fat people will feel permission to come in a place called 'potbelly' and take a meal without shame. A lot, I hope. Fat people aren't morally objectionable; they're just human.
More later, folks. I have more selling off to do.