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September 18, 2007 – Comments (12)

Smart money was as selling on strength today...

12 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On September 18, 2007 at 6:21 PM, camistocks (< 20) wrote:

wow! 4 recs for a one liner without any analysis and rationale... Obviously many F(f)ools are short and want the market down.

Sorry, but a 90% upside day on high volume usually means smart money buying... ;-)

Peter 

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#2) On September 18, 2007 at 7:05 PM, dwot (42.57) wrote:

OK Peter, we will see...

I take it you weren't one of the recs on this one...

I have a few things on my plate over the next few weeks, but when I have more time I will write about it.

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#3) On September 18, 2007 at 7:10 PM, ikkyu2 (99.26) wrote:

What I'd like to know is where was all that money yesterday, that flowed into the markets today?  Sitting in Ts?

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#4) On September 18, 2007 at 8:33 PM, retailsails (94.18) wrote:

Of course the market was going to react positively...what's not to like?  However, how does that at all change the underlying problems of liquidity, credit issues, and an oversupply of junk - high rates were never the issue.  Nobody will lend to each other or consumers, and there is still a huge oversupply of...fill in the blanks - LBO loans, CDO's, Resi ABS, CP - literally hundreds of billions of it that nobody wants even at rediculous levels.  This is a psychological boost - no more, no less...

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#5) On September 18, 2007 at 8:44 PM, floridabuilder2 (99.23) wrote:

i think it was more short covering than anything... the more short interest the higher the rise today.... knowing bernake's background the fact that he thought 1/2 pt was necessary is very telling on how bad the housing market is and its effect on the overall economy

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#6) On September 18, 2007 at 9:18 PM, camistocks (< 20) wrote:

dwot, I definitely didn't recommend! ;-)

JR, as you say, it is a psychological boost. And this is IMO exactly the most important thing that the markets needed right now. Risk appetite should increase again, because the Fed has now officially changed from restrictive to accommodative policy.

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#7) On September 18, 2007 at 9:56 PM, TDRH (99.65) wrote:

The Fed move does not change this Fool's outlook for homebuilders.   It is not going to change real income, in truth with the increased money supply, higher energy prices and declining home values (in some areas) real income is on the decline.   
Hope that I am wrong, but I believe that the factors outlined above will lead to reduced consumer spending and could lead to a US recession.   The weaker US dollar would normally mean increased exports, and competitiveness of US manufacturing, but there is not much "U.S." manufacturing left.  
Welcome contrarian views, as I would like to see a light at the end of the tunnel.   
dwot, I gave you a receipt just because you are one of the few saying anything. 

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#8) On September 18, 2007 at 11:57 PM, dwot (42.57) wrote:

Ikkyu2, I think there has been money watching the market.  And it was probably a good time to cover shorts, let the market rise and wait to short again.

JR10022, I am Canadian and today either exporter lost 2% or importer cost gained 2% because of the currency change in one day.  There is no way out, this way will be inflation and it is going to squeeze margins everywhere.  How can stocks stay up with squeezed margins?

floridabuilder, I think you are right.

camistocks, risk appetite may increase, but the squeeze on margins is going to catch many investors by surprise. 

TDRH, you've made me think tourism might be the place to be in the coming market.  Certainly I've avoided holidaying in the US because of how expensive it has been for Canadians.  I suppose it will depend on inflation.

I'm agreeing on the recession and probably a long one. 

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#9) On September 19, 2007 at 4:33 PM, dwot (42.57) wrote:

Ikkyu2, I think there has been money watching the market.  And it was probably a good time to cover shorts, let the market rise and wait to short again.

JR10022, I am Canadian and today either exporter lost 2% or importer cost gained 2% because of the currency change in one day.  There is no way out, this way will be inflation and it is going to squeeze margins everywhere.  How can stocks stay up with squeezed margins?

floridabuilder, I think you are right.

camistocks, risk appetite may increase, but the squeeze on margins is going to catch many investors by surprise. 

TDRH, you've made me think tourism might be the place to be in the coming market.  Certainly I've avoided holidaying in the US because of how expensive it has been for Canadians.  I suppose it will depend on inflation.

I'm agreeing on the recession and probably a long one. 

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#10) On September 19, 2007 at 9:39 PM, TDRH (99.65) wrote:

Tourism is a brilliant choice, weak dollar attracts visitors from around the world.   When you first said it I said that is the ticket, but it is all doom and gloom in my mind.   In the past our department of homeland security has made  it extremely difficult for individuals to travel here on a tourist visa.   It may be more streamlined now, not sure.    I personally cannot see a light at the end of the tunnel,  but I keep looking. 

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#11) On September 20, 2007 at 4:26 PM, dwot (42.57) wrote:

I had a discussion with students today about what would the effects be for Canada with a 3% change in just a couple days and in the range of 20% since January.  They came up with cross border shopping is going to be far cheaper for us. 

They brought up education and thought that the US would get more over seas students, but right now I think the fears about homeland security are killing that option, so as a Canadian, I hope we do not lose our foreign students.  I missed that one.  Certainly the weaker dollar does make your universities more attractive.

They saw that our exporters were going to be hurt and so would our tourism.  Toursim has been one of the biggest things in our local economy so I see a lot of that doom and gloom you speak about.

We also talked a bit about how do you enter the job market where your job is geared to emerging economies and they see benefit in learning Chinese and Spanish. 

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#12) On July 08, 2008 at 4:35 PM, LordZ wrote:

Money has no intelligence DWOT...

I gave into some fear and sold my real world investment in DRYS...

Had I kept it, it would have made me more money at market close, but than theres always tommorrow I can always buy it back, hopefully a lot cheaper and sell it again.

The stock market is a trip virtually the whole day I was down 3 grand and I ended the day up 820.

But that is short term thinking, personally in reassessing my investments I need to do more of 2 things....

1> Buy and sell when I make profits ~ need to not try to squeeze every single dollar ~ ive seen investments appreciate as much as 40% and I should have sold and pocketed more of the money than I did.

2> I need to than make more investments on future faith ~ take risks in buying stocks that in several years will make me wealthy.

Both are easier said than done.

For all the nay sayers and haters out there..

I'm still here... havent lost all my money, oh sure ive lost some and ive made plenty.

Oh by the way ALcoa beat earnings :)

Personally I would love to see all the shorts go broke...

Keep shorting :) eventually you'll get caught.

Alcoa Reports Strong 2nd Quarter 2008 Results; Higher Volume and Pricing Offset Input Cost Pressures

July 8, 2008 4:30 PM

Alcoa AA today announced that strong revenue growth in its second quarter 2008 led to an 80 percent increase in profitability compared with the first quarter of 2008. The Company reported net income of $546 million, or $0.66 per diluted share compared with $303 million or $0.37 per share in first quarter 2008. Higher input costs impacting the entire aluminum industry were offset by higher volume and stronger pricing. Net income in the second quarter of 2007 was $715 million or $0.81.

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