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Varchild2008 (84.59)

I pretty much NAILED the Bull Market's Bottom!

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March 10, 2009 – Comments (14)

I said on March 1st that spending at retail stores is picking up and Stocks that should be in the toilet if we were still in a worsening economy situation, were actually way beyond their 52-week november lows. (BBY).  I pointed out Best Buy as the Best example stock that was killing the market!

Then on March 6th I predicted a 400+ point climb in the DOW that the DOW was oversold and should actually be near DOW 7000 to match the recovery pace of the economy in terms of consumer spending, Job Loss Deceleration, and other positive signs of growth.

America is BACK folks.

But... I am hear to WARN the investment community to be careful before thinking DOW 8000.

We need to see what the facts are regarding Mark to Market.
We need to see the effects of President Obama's stimulus package...

We need to assess the long term damage of the Federal Government's Debt... The Higher Taxes... Cap and Trade... And so much more.

There's so many things that are acting as downward pressure on our FRAGILE economy than even IF I am absolutely correct to believe that March 1st was the beginning of the economy's turn-a-round.... We are not in some kinda BULL MARKET that will go crazy as all get out here.

We are in a WEAK  Bull Market.    WEAK WEAK WEAK recovery.  And in this atmosphere.... The Strong will recover first.

Which is why I would like to point out the following ticker symbols as candidates for achieving the fastest recovery in this Weak Bull Market:

BANKS

(JPM)
(GS)
(GE)    *yes*  *General Electric baby is back!  I walked down a hall way and heard some talk and near panic about General Electric's stock price month to month.  When you hear someone practically in TEARS over a stock, then you know it is time to buy General Electric!!*
(TCB)
(MI)
(MS)
(WFC)

And that's it.  Thems your choices.... Of course... I may have missed a bank or two so do your homework!

INSURANCE COMPANYS

(AFL)  <-------    P/E of less than 4.5??????  If this slips any...heck.. who cares... I'd buy this at $15.00 a share!


P.S.   Now is the time to throw your Money Market (Liquid) money into yoru favorite SMALL CAPS mutual fund.  Small Cap Value or Small Cap Growth... whatever.. Toss it in tomorrow or at least by Friday:-)  Trust me!   We are headed for something truly special this year :-)

Oh and I will also repeat myself here... I've said this before and it needs saying again.

America's Economy was able to do well and rally and grow INSPITE OF Clinton's Tax Hikes.
And I strongly believe America's Economy will find a way to Grow and Prosper INSPITE OF  President Barack Obama's Tax Hikes.

P.P.S.  President Barack Obama will get a 2nd Term in Office no matter how hard I may protest.


14 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On March 10, 2009 at 8:04 PM, cbwang888 (25.67) wrote:

Watch me red thumb GE once my lock on green thumb passes.

GE capital will be the bomb to blow up.

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#2) On March 10, 2009 at 8:11 PM, briyan (31.93) wrote:

So are you saying... this is not a short-lived sucker's rally but we're actually recovering now?   I just want to make sure I'm clear for future reference.

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#3) On March 10, 2009 at 8:22 PM, kdakota630 (29.83) wrote:

cbwang888

I was thinking the exact same thing regarding GE.

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#4) On March 10, 2009 at 8:41 PM, swingtrader930 (29.67) wrote:

I think its premature to think we are anywhere near a bottom.  But I do think within the next month or two the market is in for a huge bounce of epic proportions.  For a market bottom we need to have jobs, earnings growth, and increase in GDP.   These are things which just dont happen over night.   Most likely we will get a huge bounce which will decay to levels below where we are now.

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#5) On March 10, 2009 at 8:45 PM, kdakota630 (29.83) wrote:

swingtrader930

I've been calling that same "epic bounce" for 3-4 months now, to the point where I've just assumed I've been wrong all this time.  Let's hope you're right (which would make me "early" instead of wrong).  My prediction also included yours about dipping to below current levels.

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#6) On March 10, 2009 at 9:47 PM, soycapital (< 20) wrote:

Now is the time to throw your Money Market (Liquid) money into yoru favorite SMALL CAPS mutual fund.  Small Cap Value or Small Cap Growth... whatever.. Toss it in tomorrow or at least by Friday:-)  Trust me!   We are headed for something truly special this year :-)

Good post but I'd be very careful buying mutual funds in this volitile market, me thinks etf's would be better and much more flexible.

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#7) On March 10, 2009 at 10:07 PM, alphaman01 (< 20) wrote:

swing trader....I think you're early and also wrong....I don't see an epic bounce for quite some time, possibly another six to twelve months. We will probably need to have some real panic to see an epic bounce. These recent down days have been way too orderly to say we are at an epic bounce or bottom.

Varchild, I like your stock picks (long term) but I have to critque your comments. It was obvious on Friday March 6th that there was going to be a huge up move in stocks on either Monday March 9th or today, Tuesday March 10th. Specialists waited until the last half hour on Friday to sneak stock prices slightly higher. They wanted to keep the public out until prices were much higher. No doubt today people were buying. Don't forget Richard Ney's sixth axiom, "Investors will live to buy another day....tra la la"  This refers to them getting scared and selling like during last week's decline, and then buying back at higher prices such as today. Although there may be a few more days where the market goes up, I believe that we will see a resumption of the decline soon. I don't see DOW 8,000. Cripe, We aren't even above 7,000 yet. I'm sure that many specialists and exchange isiders were selling today. No doubt they were able to buy massive amounts of stock last week.

Specialists can maniputate the market short term, but they can not control the mechanics of the market long term. Earnings and market cap are still the main factors. Those factors are horrible today.

 

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#8) On March 10, 2009 at 10:09 PM, alphaman01 (< 20) wrote:

swing trader....I think you're early and also wrong....I don't see an epic bounce for quite some time, possibly another six to twelve months. We will probably need to have some real panic to see an epic bounce. These recent down days have been way too orderly to say we are at an epic bounce or bottom.

Varchild, I like your stock picks (long term) but I have to critque your comments. It was obvious on Friday March 6th that there was going to be a huge up move in stocks on either Monday March 9th or today, Tuesday March 10th. Specialists waited until the last half hour on Friday to sneak stock prices slightly higher. They wanted to keep the public out until prices were much higher. No doubt today people were buying. Don't forget Richard Ney's sixth axiom, "Investors will live to buy another day....tra la la"  This refers to them getting scared and selling like during last week's decline, and then buying back at higher prices such as today. Although there may be a few more days where the market goes up, I believe that we will see a resumption of the decline soon. I don't see DOW 8,000. Cripe, We aren't even above 7,000 yet. I'm sure that many specialists and exchange insiders were selling today. No doubt they were able to buy massive amounts of stock last week.

Specialists can maniputate the market short term, but they can not control the mechanics of the market long term. Earnings and market cap are still the main factors. Those factors are horrible today.

 

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#9) On March 10, 2009 at 10:46 PM, ikkyu2 (99.12) wrote:

Are you calling a bottom based on today?  I also want to know for future reference, so I can come back and remind you when we hit S+P 500.

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#10) On March 10, 2009 at 11:33 PM, iamnik77 (95.58) wrote:

Dow 5000 or Dow 8000? Why worry about that?!! The price is right, the price is right! Take advantage of this opportunity and accumulate some bargain priced shares in quality companies whose futures are bright. Just because all these folks with 95 and up ratings are preaching doom and gloom doesn't mean you have to buy in to it. Some of these folks are short sellers who NEED you to panic and dump your stocks. Do yourself a favor and disappoint them. Some of them may be the real deal but others are just the flavor of the day and a year or two from now will not have kept their all star status. If you ever wanted to hear what Ben Graham's Mr. Market sounded like, look no further than the Motley Fool CAPS blogs. Many people made a small fortune buying tech in the late 90's but they didn't have a framework upon which they could build a truly successful investing career. The time to be excited about shorting stocks was a year ago but few were preaching that kind of wisdom back then. Now everyone acts like they knew it all along. All of this doom and gloom is just another form of group think.

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#11) On March 11, 2009 at 1:31 AM, MikeMark (29.58) wrote:

One day makes the beginning of a bull market? One little bull for man, one giant bull for mankind? (Sorry, got space on the brain.)

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#12) On March 11, 2009 at 7:20 AM, Varchild2008 (84.59) wrote:

"So are you saying... this is not a short-lived sucker's rally but we're actually recovering now?   I just want to make sure I'm clear for future reference"

Yes I am saying that but I am also cautioning that there's still some issues that are a mystery right now. 

I can't get 100% bullish when I don't know what Mark to Market's replacement is.... Or what President Obama will do from one day to the next.  The Government has unfortunately gotten so big that the Federal Government can easily crush any recovery in the Economy.

Also.. I'd like to refresh people's memories here.... The Housing Market may not have bottomed in terms of pricing or buying.... But we have seen some positive news in December of last year as well as January of this year.

The Housing market COULD bottom just as Jim Cramer predicted around June of this year.  If we see a bottoming out process occur in housing and President Obama doesn't suggest more Tax Hikes or Government Intrusion than he already has....

Then I think we are safe....

I think the fact that the DOW sat there at 6500 deciding whether to go to DOW 6250 and beyond.... or pop back up towards DOW 7000....

I think the Stock Market made a choice.... I think it asked itself a solid question....

"Can America recover in spite of the bad news?"

And with a resounding YES WE CAN.... The DOW pops up 400 points instead of falling down 400.

I remember Blog Posts showing up Intraday Monday on Motely Fool wondering why on Earth the DOW hasn't fallen 200 points or more on Monday.

I mean.. There's too many "weird" conicidences here to ignore.
The Stock Market is a great predicter of the future economy because even when it is wrong... it will correct itself so fast that no one will notice that it was ever wrong.

We experienced a Market correction yesterday... Not a Bear Market Bounce off of No News.  We had plenty of justification for the correction.

DOW should be hovering between 7000 and 8000 right now.

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#13) On March 11, 2009 at 9:46 AM, EHoyle80 (< 20) wrote:

The consensus view by economists on the U.S. economy is becoming darker, the New York Times reports. (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a487Kmeq1Eog) There are optimists out there, but no one seems to expect a roaring recovery, while Niall Ferguson says he finds it “quite easy” to imagine “two consecutive years of contraction” followed by “two more lean years after that.”
Bloomberg’s conclusion: “The U.S. recession, now in its 15th month, will probably continue well into 2010 or beyond.”

Via Stock Research Portal 

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#14) On March 11, 2009 at 1:14 PM, swingtrader930 (29.67) wrote:

Alphaman . . . and for those who want to play days like yesterday, follow the $TRIN index. It was below 0.5 on Friday and Monday. This set up yesterdays gain. The scale is such that 1.0 is neutral, less becomes more bullish and above becomes more bearish. A value of 0.5 value is EXTREMELY bullish. But you cant use it to play CAPS because of the one week rule.

On another note, if you look from a monthly perspective we are continuing to make lower highs and lower lows every month. Until this trend changes you have to go with DOWN. For a trend reversal you have to get above the previous months high. With the way the market is dropping each month this becomes increasingly harder to achieve. Open your perspective to month against month. Everything else is noise and not a true signal.

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