GreenCollegeGrad (75.77)

25 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On February 16, 2011 at 9:47 PM, rexlove (99.24) wrote:

Green.  

 

It's kinda already been done. See the AllStarPortfolio player. 

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#2) On February 16, 2011 at 9:49 PM, GreenCollegeGrad (75.77) wrote:

Since I havent seen it I cant make an educated comment, but I was hoping for more of a live dialoge/give and take debate over current stocks/issues. If thats what that offers then they beat me to it.

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#3) On February 16, 2011 at 9:59 PM, GreenCollegeGrad (75.77) wrote:

After checking the player I have a few things Id like to do differently.

1st. I want to discuss the macro issues affecting the marketplace, the overrididing trends which affect the micro moves.

2nd. There needs to be more than  47 picks. Id like to see at least 150 listed, which yes will take time and lots of discussion. But for the lesser players who need picks to help thier score (and yes make money in real life) its damn well worth it.

3. Lastly the score of the all stars must at LEAST be better than mine.  Come on folks.  We can do better than this.

Regardless I Will post the first installment of the blog tomorrow night. I hope many show up, and promise a thought provoking discussion for those who do.

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#4) On February 16, 2011 at 11:15 PM, checklist34 (99.79) wrote:

i'll chip in on that. 

the fact of the matter is nobody has a clue whats going on right now.  Lazlo Beryni (sp?) just called for S&P 2000+ by 2013.  Another guy on CNBC today was calling for another crash, both had good logic.  As usual, the bear case was fleshed out better and presented with more cutting edge.  

I do not have 150 picks and frankly I think if making a list of picks for real life money making you should shoot for like 20.  

I think these collaboration of the minds scenarios generally prove mediocre, as many different outlooks creates a bit of an indexish scenario.

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#5) On February 16, 2011 at 11:20 PM, GreenCollegeGrad (75.77) wrote:

First off, thrilled your interested. We will start tomorrow evening est, not exactly sure when.

As to your comment of 150 picks, you do have a point. My goal is to have 150 picks for our caps portfolio, then narrow down those 150 to what we believe will be the strongest performers in the months to come.

Personally using my top CAPS picks ive made a bundle. Withe fresh perspective and constructive collaboration I have no doubt we can ferret out even better choices for real life investing,

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#6) On February 16, 2011 at 11:33 PM, Valyooo (99.81) wrote:

Checklist,

Just because some guy who's name is hard to spell doesn't know whats going on, doesn't mean nobody does :P

I know whats going on...we are in a bull market...what else matters?  When I see a dip, I will buy more...if it is down 3 straight days (which it has not been for months) I will let it correct even more..then I will buy more.

Simple enough eh?

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#7) On February 16, 2011 at 11:42 PM, Momentum21 (98.31) wrote:

If you are already making a bundle keep doing what you are doing...

You can easily read through the advice and opinions here to create your own version of a collaborative effort. Take it all in but in the end if you become too worried about what everyone else thinks is good you become average. Fall in love with yourself you become broke...

 

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#8) On February 16, 2011 at 11:51 PM, GreenCollegeGrad (75.77) wrote:

Im a large believer in new perspectives generate new avenues of revenue. Just becuase I enter a collaborative doesnt mean my ego has to be subsumed into the whole.

Tomorrow night folks, time to be announced later on in the day tomorrow. Got some good stuff to start with, hope those of you  who share come prepared!

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#9) On February 17, 2011 at 12:01 AM, GreenCollegeGrad (75.77) wrote:

If you didnt get a personal invite and ur in the 90s pls dont be offended. Im tired and need sleep. Catch you all in the morning

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#10) On February 17, 2011 at 12:19 AM, awallejr (80.08) wrote:

Rank is irrelevant. How much money you make isn't.  Go by average pick scores.  That is far more telling.

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#11) On February 17, 2011 at 12:34 AM, HarryCarysGhost (99.77) wrote:

(98.65)

Completely meaningless.

I'll play the game tommorow.

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#12) On February 17, 2011 at 12:55 AM, GreenCollegeGrad (75.77) wrote:

Gonna have to side with Harry on this one. And I look foward to it

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#13) On February 17, 2011 at 2:57 AM, checklist34 (99.79) wrote:

Valy,

     For now.  But as I have felt for 24 months, the secular bear is not over and has another "big one" left in it, another panic fest to go with the 3 we have seen so far.  

    However much I aggravate them, and however many times they get together to plan my demise via drowning in a vat of alfredo sauce, I think the bears are right that the next secular bull won't commence until the worlds debt situation is stabilized.  Before this secular bear ends Japan will default and chanos will win in china.  

    The onset of the next secular bull will also be met with commodity deflation.  This is how it has always worked, for 150 years of data that I've seen.  Commodity inflation cycles lead to secular bear markets in equities and often recessions (always?).  When the great secular bull takes off commodities will stall.  Not crash, but plateauish, for a decade or two.  

    So this isn't the onset of a new secular bull.  I absolutely think we see S&P 1500 before the secular bear ends and maybe on this run...  I also think that we don't even get anywhere even remotely and I mean not even somewhat close to the march 2009 bottoms again...  and my portfolio is substantially long and up 8% this year ... but I am going to continue systematically reducing that long exposure on the way up, taking care to minimize tax burden.  And then switch to alternate strategies.

    I am interested in beating the market and all the pros.  I did this badly in 2009, and was up there with the best pros last year I guess...  this is because I'm competitive and an uneducated farm boy and it humors me greatly to be more right than all these clowns.  And I mean it humors me to no end.  

    But I think at this point if I am going to buy its going to require a substantial dip.  

    I would be willing to short some mroe levered ETFs and stuff, though...  ;)

 

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#14) On February 17, 2011 at 3:20 AM, checklist34 (99.79) wrote:

I had a caps score of <20, with a very negative overall score when I made these two blogs:

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/im-betting-big-on-bdcs/160347

preceded by one week by this one:

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/mark-to-market-relief/154915

I proposed that at some point the market would have to bounce a bit, and noted that credit markets were thawing/thawed, and suggested that the companies that had been hurt the most by mark to market write-downs would be the ones that rallied the most:  insurers and BDCs.  

I came out of the hole (the march bottom in 09) with my biggest positions ASH, XL, ACAS, TCK, GNW, HIG, MCGC, ALD, RCL casino basket, trashed bank basket.  2 weeks later I made DOW a huge position, and I also had significant stakes in OSK and other debt-laden companies. And literally 60 other stocks I shouldn't have owned, rookie mistakes.  Dang those rookie mistakes!

Those were probably the two most profitable blogs in the blogosphere since I showed up here, but nobody read them, and nobody gave a rats fanny, because I had a bad score.  

At that time, only the bears were smart, even though it was their dumbest moment.   

Read those.  I had been in the market for 2 months and a week.  And I know they are written somewhat in my usual hesitatnt tone, because however bold I am at betting my own money (>30% of my personal net worth bet on TCK last summer) I can't risk causing someone else to lose big.  I am all growed up and can take my chances on my own brain.  

But I was right, and I wasn't just right, I was EXACTLY right.  With complete method to the madness. 

I was more right that David Tepper, I was more right that Doug Kass, I was more right than Bill Ackman, I was more right than the idiot that'll be on CNBC tomorrow.  

And, in fact, everybody can suck one.  The arrogant condescending bears on this site can suck one.  Well, they already have sucked one.  And the idiot from some hedge fund that said to get long MON and SD and called me insane for buying insurance and casinos can suck one, and the guy who I have seen 20 times on CNBCwho runs some big fund and told me I'd lose all my money if I tried to invest it myself can suck one.  And every mouth-running silly claim making blogger (at other sites) can suck one.  And everybody else can suck one too.  

And nobody read it, because I had a crappy score.  Probably not one person made any money off those blogs, because I had a crappy score.   

And if you're wondering how ASH, TCK,RCL etc got in there...

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/the-boom-or-bust-portfolio-is/141665

1 month and 1 week into my stock market career.  I was right about that too:  debt heavy companies were sold into oblivion and most of them would live.

So, as a reminder:  the hedge guys who told me I would fail can suck one, and the arrogant condescending overbearing bears from CAPs, who called me an idiot innumerable times, can suck one, and the fearmongers can suck one, and the pundits can suck one, and so can those hedge guy's neighbors and also whoever is unlucky enough to be their golfing partners.  

That is all.  Today I pay so much less attention to the market, lulled into my pattern of sitting here, napping, then selling something off, then having some coffee, then wishing I had more food in the fridge, then running some stairs...

So I have no great thesis.  But back then I was 110% into it.  It was alot of fun, this is alot of dull.

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#15) On February 17, 2011 at 3:36 AM, checklist34 (99.79) wrote:

many MONTHS after the march bottoms, when my portfolio had well over doubled INCLUDING the 30+% drawdown to the march bottoms, so TRIPLED from the march bottoms...

my broker emailed me an article in which a couple of big-weinered hedge gurus were talking about how buying companies that were impaired by mark to market accounting might be a good idea, because as the marks move up, so should the stocks as in some cases profit is written back and in all cases book value is.

All it said was "we were just talking about this and we wondered if anybody had ever had this idea before?  maybe somebody even had it when it counted?"

classic

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#16) On February 17, 2011 at 3:43 AM, checklist34 (99.79) wrote:

I will take a modesty class after I do...

but I think I need to write a blog titled "everybody can suck one" and list every single hedge-hogger that told me I was dumb by name, with quotations, and the compare their performance to mine. 

And every single one of the rancidly arrogant CAPs bears (now all broken and quiet) who told everybody, including me, we were idiots if we dared to be bullish.  And once even almost ran Porte off the site by ganging up and insulting him foolishly.  

YOU ARROGANT TURDS LOST, WE WON.  hahahahahaha!

May kharma slap you in the face with freshly used tea bag for every person who could have made major money, who could have put his kids through college on his savings that you scared out of the market acting like a pack of jr hi bullies riding around in daddies car.  

And, as predicted a couple YEARS ago, Awalls score now exceeds Alstry's (which was once 100.00)

that is all

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#17) On February 17, 2011 at 3:45 AM, checklist34 (99.79) wrote:

please note that I am raising cash and getting meself a seriously low beta here, so if the market crashes I cannot be slapped back with said tea bag by said arrogant bears.

who, in fact, on SEVERAL occasions stated

"its a simple fact that bears are smarter than bulls"

"i'm a better investor than you'll ever be"

and more.  lord some of you people were caustic and almost embarassing.

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#18) On February 17, 2011 at 3:46 AM, checklist34 (99.79) wrote:

ok, that is all. 

that was fun, lol.  its good to feel some competitive animal spirits flow in ones blood and feel that desire to beat someone so thoroughly that they can no longer speak or think and simply limp off into the horizon.  

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#19) On February 17, 2011 at 5:53 AM, mhy729 (38.89) wrote:

I didn't know there was such an acrimonious sentiment between the bulls and bears here....

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#20) On February 17, 2011 at 6:10 AM, djfhdsk (< 20) wrote:

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#21) On February 17, 2011 at 10:09 AM, GreenCollegeGrad (75.77) wrote:

Well with such an impassioned (and convincing argument) this event will be opened to all CAPS members who care to participate.

I will start the Blog today at 1est. If no one else is there because its earlier than expected I will post my ideas, my questions, my uncertainties, and we can peicemeal a constructive discussion together

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#22) On February 17, 2011 at 10:16 AM, GreenCollegeGrad (75.77) wrote:

Oh and checklist, hope im not lumped in with those who can suck it. Dont think you or I have ver had a corss world. EL O EL

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#23) On February 17, 2011 at 11:56 AM, Gemini846 (88.73) wrote:

There were a couple of more popular posters here who developed a following around thier trading stragegy or sectors. Most of them have left leaving this place to the ghosts. I check in about every 2-3 weeks, but nothing has really changed.

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#24) On February 17, 2011 at 11:59 AM, GreenCollegeGrad (75.77) wrote:

I cant comment on who has left, but as to those  who have stayed, there certainly are CAPS members who do an outstanding job analysing stocks/sectors/opportunities

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#25) On February 17, 2011 at 10:54 PM, awallejr (80.08) wrote:

Checklist some fun old links:

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/i-just-surpassed/204229

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/i-love-the-yappy-quotall/237902

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/yappy-bears-show-we-are-not/195241

The last link had some ironic commentary.  One saying how important points were back then has around 40 points now heheh.

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